Talk Elections

Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => U.S. Presidential Election Results => Topic started by: solarstorm on February 23, 2015, 06:57:18 PM



Title: Primary candidates that lost their home states
Post by: solarstorm on February 23, 2015, 06:57:18 PM
It is often discussed if a presidential candidate could lose his home state in the general election, or why he lost it, respectively.
But has it ever happened that a presidential candidate, who had won the nomination process, had lost his home state during the primaries?


Title: Re: Primary candidates that lost their home states
Post by: solarstorm on February 24, 2015, 06:40:51 AM
Richard Nixon lost his home state of California in 1968 to Ronald Reagan, who was also from California.

Ah ... that makes sense. But it's a very unique situation where the top-two candidates lived in the same state. I'd guess it has never happened that the winner lost his home state against a candidate with a different home state.


Title: Re: Primary candidates that lost their home states
Post by: MATTROSE94 on February 24, 2015, 08:19:15 AM
I also heard that Chris Christie could potentially end up losing the NJ primary to Scott Walker in 2016 if his unpopular continues to increase.


Title: Re: Primary candidates that lost their home states
Post by: TheElectoralBoobyPrize on February 24, 2015, 11:45:18 AM
It is often discussed if a presidential candidate could lose his home state in the general election, or why he lost it, respectively.
But has it ever happened that a presidential candidate, who had won the nomination process, had lost his home state during the primaries?

It's an interesting question, but the only reason it happens in general elections is because the home state of the candidate leans heavily towards the other party. That isn't an issue in primaries so you'd be hard-pressed to find an example outside of fringe candidates.


Title: Re: Primary candidates that lost their home states
Post by: Incipimus iterum on February 24, 2015, 11:50:45 AM
1932 Republican Maryland Presidential primary- Hoover beat challenger Senator Joseph France.


Title: Re: Primary candidates that lost their home states
Post by: solarstorm on February 24, 2015, 07:26:06 PM
1932 Republican Maryland Presidential primary- Hoover beat challenger Senator Joseph France.

Erm ... no, that's not what I meant.
Had Hoover, however, been beaten in his home state of Iowa, then that primary were a perfect example of what I'm looking for.


Title: Re: Primary candidates that lost their home states
Post by: retromike22 on March 04, 2015, 06:26:39 PM
I suppose if Romney lost MI to Santorum, but it's more of a "birth" state than a home state.

Here's a recent list:
2012 Romney in MA +60%
2008 McCain in AZ +13%
2008 Obama in IL +32%
2004 Kerry in MA +53%
2000 Gore in TN +87%
2000 Bush in TX +80%
1996 Dole in KS (I think KS didn't have a primary or caucus?)
1992 Clinton in AR +50%

So McCain was the closest.


Title: Re: Primary candidates that lost their home states
Post by: TheElectoralBoobyPrize on April 16, 2015, 12:05:57 PM
Sorry to bump this old thread, but reading up on the '76 primaries between Reagan and Ford, I discovered both of them lost their birth states so that's something.


Title: Re: Primary candidates that lost their home states
Post by: solarstorm on April 16, 2015, 12:30:56 PM
Sorry to bump this old thread, but reading up on the '76 primaries between Reagan and Ford, I discovered both of them lost their birth states so that's something.

That's perhaps the best answer to my question.


Title: Re: Primary candidates that lost their home states
Post by: solarstorm on April 17, 2015, 06:56:14 AM
If the primaries were held today, Bush would lose his home state... (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=171020.msg456638)