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Title: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 10, 2015, 07:14:24 PM It's starting to look somewhat grim for the Kentucky GOP...
http://www.kentucky.com/2015/03/10/3738389_bluegrass-poll-jack-conway-holds.html Title: KY: Survey USA: Conway up 2 to 10 Post by: Flake on March 10, 2015, 07:25:33 PM New Poll: Kentucky Governor by Survey USA on 2015-03-08 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2015/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2120150308019)
Summary: D: 40%, R: 38%, U: 20% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.kentucky.com/2015/03/10/3738389_bluegrass-poll-jack-conway-holds.html?rh=1) Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 10, 2015, 07:25:43 PM Incidentally, Heiner - not Comer - has a pretty commanding lead in the Republican primary now.
Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: IceSpear on March 10, 2015, 08:56:44 PM Eh, let's remember that SUSA kind of sucks at polling KY. I won't easily forget all their heartbreaking "Grimes within the MoE" polls even when nobody else was showing it close.
Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Maxwell on March 10, 2015, 11:16:01 PM Wow, Conway leads 2 with SURVEYUSA 8 months out. Astounding.
Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 10, 2015, 11:49:06 PM Still a Toss-Up.
After watching McConnell win by 15 points in a race that was supposed to be neck and neck, I'm skeptical of this actually being true come November, especially when it comes from SUSA, who showed Grimes ahead in OCTOBER. Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: morgieb on March 11, 2015, 12:44:45 AM Didn't SurveyUSA have Grimes up in October?
Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 11, 2015, 12:48:55 AM Didn't SurveyUSA have Grimes up in October? Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 11, 2015, 09:13:14 AM Remember, this is the pollster that got Ernie Fletcher "elected." They're not exactly a big Democratic pollster.
Plus, Conway is leading in every non-Republican poll, sometimes by as much as 12 against Comer. Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Mr. Reactionary on March 11, 2015, 01:13:47 PM Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 11, 2015, 01:18:08 PM Will The Media do its best to destroy Conway and the Democrats? Yes.
The real question is: Will it be enough? Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on March 11, 2015, 01:20:05 PM Are the KY state Democrats just riding high off Beshear's popularity?
Before they held the state house, I didn't think this race was winnable for Dems. But I guess it'll be the tossup of 2015. Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 11, 2015, 01:22:40 PM Are the KY state Democrats just riding high off Beshear's popularity? Maybe it has more to do with the Republicans' unpopularity. The GOP made "right-to-work" its top priority, which has ruined the GOP at the state level. Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Flake on March 11, 2015, 01:30:51 PM Are the KY state Democrats just riding high off Beshear's popularity? Maybe it has more to do with the Republicans' unpopularity. The GOP made "right-to-work" its top priority, which has ruined the GOP at the state level. The KYGOP isn't ruined, in fact it's probably stronger today than any other time in american history. Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Maxwell on March 11, 2015, 01:32:52 PM Someone get this guy some clown makeup.
Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 11, 2015, 01:40:43 PM The KYGOP isn't ruined, in fact it's probably stronger today than any other time in american history. "Right-to-work" is unpopular. Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: ElectionsGuy on March 11, 2015, 02:15:34 PM I'll be laughing when Conway blows this in November.
Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 11, 2015, 02:22:57 PM I'll be laughing when Conway blows this in November. What if he doesn't? Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Xing on March 11, 2015, 02:53:17 PM Toss-up. Whatever the accuracy of this poll may be, +2 is not exactly a commanding lead.
Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Adam Griffin on March 11, 2015, 06:20:06 PM SUSA doesn't suck at polling. Every pollster sucked in 2014 save for a couple of coincidentally-correct pollsters; SUSA has a great track record by and large.
Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 11, 2015, 07:23:00 PM The Courier-Journal has a big article about how SurveyUSA has recalibrated its poll this time to give more "accurate" results...
http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2015/03/10/bluegrass-poll-revamped-improve-results/24718143 In other words, they've changed their methodology to reflect Republicans rigging elections. Such is the state of polling today. Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Flake on March 11, 2015, 08:28:50 PM The KYGOP isn't ruined, in fact it's probably stronger today than any other time in american history. "Right-to-work" is unpopular. So is being a Democrat in Appalachia at this point :P Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 11, 2015, 08:41:47 PM So is being a Democrat in Appalachia at this point :P Ever hear of a place called Elliott County? Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Joe Republic on March 11, 2015, 08:44:12 PM I come to threads discussing Kentucky's elections just for Bandit's analysis. His analysis is the best analysis, very yes.
Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Flake on March 11, 2015, 10:58:35 PM So is being a Democrat in Appalachia at this point :P Ever hear of a place called Elliott County? Ever hear of the complete decimation of Democratic officeholders from West Virginia to Tennessee? Just because there's one county that still supports Democrats (even though it barely voted for Obama over Romney in 2012) indicates one trend: it's moving to the Republicans. In 2000, Gore won the county by thirty points (despite Bush winning the state by 15), but in 2012, Obama won the county by three points (27% total drop in twelve years) while the margin for the Republican margin in Kentucky only increased by 8%. Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Potus on March 11, 2015, 11:43:33 PM So is being a Democrat in Appalachia at this point :P Ever hear of a place called Elliott County? Ever hear of the complete decimation of Democratic officeholders from West Virginia to Tennessee? Just because there's one county that still supports Democrats (even though it barely voted for Obama over Romney in 2012) indicates one trend: it's moving to the Republicans. In 2000, Gore won the county by thirty points (despite Bush winning the state by 15), but in 2012, Obama won the county by three points (27% total drop in twelve years) while the margin for the Republican margin in Kentucky only increased by 8%. Bandit, shhhhhhh..... (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/10/West_Virginia_Senate_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2014.svg/290px-West_Virginia_Senate_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2014.svg.png) Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 11, 2015, 11:52:51 PM So is being a Democrat in Appalachia at this point :P Ever hear of a place called Elliott County? Ever hear of the complete decimation of Democratic officeholders from West Virginia to Tennessee? Just because there's one county that still supports Democrats (even though it barely voted for Obama over Romney in 2012) indicates one trend: it's moving to the Republicans. In 2000, Gore won the county by thirty points (despite Bush winning the state by 15), but in 2012, Obama won the county by three points (27% total drop in twelve years) while the margin for the Republican margin in Kentucky only increased by 8%. Bandit, shhhhhhh..... (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/10/West_Virginia_Senate_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2014.svg/290px-West_Virginia_Senate_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2014.svg.png) What part of Kentucky is on that map? Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on March 11, 2015, 11:55:05 PM So is being a Democrat in Appalachia at this point :P Ever hear of a place called Elliott County? Ever hear of the complete decimation of Democratic officeholders from West Virginia to Tennessee? Just because there's one county that still supports Democrats (even though it barely voted for Obama over Romney in 2012) indicates one trend: it's moving to the Republicans. In 2000, Gore won the county by thirty points (despite Bush winning the state by 15), but in 2012, Obama won the county by three points (27% total drop in twelve years) while the margin for the Republican margin in Kentucky only increased by 8%. Bandit, shhhhhhh..... (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/10/West_Virginia_Senate_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2014.svg/290px-West_Virginia_Senate_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2014.svg.png) Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: free my dawg on March 12, 2015, 03:11:27 AM So is being a Democrat in Appalachia at this point :P Ever hear of a place called Elliott County? Ever hear of the complete decimation of Democratic officeholders from West Virginia to Tennessee? Just because there's one county that still supports Democrats (even though it barely voted for Obama over Romney in 2012) indicates one trend: it's moving to the Republicans. In 2000, Gore won the county by thirty points (despite Bush winning the state by 15), but in 2012, Obama won the county by three points (27% total drop in twelve years) while the margin for the Republican margin in Kentucky only increased by 8%. Bandit, shhhhhhh..... (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/10/West_Virginia_Senate_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2014.svg/290px-West_Virginia_Senate_Election_Results_by_County%2C_2014.svg.png) She was. WV Dems are that dead. Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 12, 2015, 10:08:26 AM West Virginia is all Appalachia. Demographically, Kentucky is maybe one-fifth Appalachia now.
Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Flake on March 12, 2015, 10:31:47 AM West Virginia is all Appalachia. Demographically, Kentucky is maybe one-fifth Appalachia now. And the rest is the South and the conservative Midwest. Title: Re: ANOTHER poll with Conway ahead: +2 to +10 on SurveyUSA Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on March 12, 2015, 10:44:49 AM West Virginia is all Appalachia. Demographically, Kentucky is maybe one-fifth Appalachia now. And the rest is the South and the conservative Midwest. Actually, there's another one-fifth that's in the big cities of Louisville and Lexington, which are Democratic. There's also a handful in smaller central cities that are Democratic. Some rural areas (Mason or Carroll county maybe) are Republican only at the federal level. |