Talk Elections

44-44 Bullock/Zinke
46-38 Bullock/Fox

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-2/

Fox isn't running, Zinke will probably wait for 2018 and challenge Tester instead.

Was he ever?

Zinke is a paper tiger. I guarantee it in a race that will get closer to national attention.

Bullock is one of those guys who are never safe, yet continually manage to win.

Unless there's a scandal, this race will never move farther to the left that lean D and farther to the right than tossup.

Great Gov, who mistaken appointed Walsh as Senator. But at end he will narrowly win.

Bullock definitely isn't safe, but I daresay he's at least slightly favored. I wish we had more to go by than just a Gravis poll, but oh well.

Agreed

But, I do see a scenario in which Dems lose Mnt and MO, but win NC, WVa, KY and NH govs.

WV is gone.

Democrats are in really good shape in Missouri and Kentucky though.

Unless Manchin runs, this.

If Manchin declines, then the only question is which republican wins the party nod, the Dem candidate has no chance.

I find a helpful guide is that if a party is thinking of running a minority leader from one of the state chambers, all hope is lost. Kansas in 2014 might have been a notable exception, but still.

Never though he was, but I think he'll narrowly win reelection in the end.

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GOP Govs

Mnt: Gov Bullock loses due to Joe Walsh debacle INC defeated GOP pickup
IN: Gov Pence reelected
ND: Gov Darlyple reelected
UT: Gov Herbert reelected
MO: GOP pickup
MS: Gov Bryant reelected
LA: Gov Vitter elected

Dem govs

KY: Gov Conway def Cromer
WA: Gov Inslee reelected
WVA: Kessler or Manchin elected
NC: Roy Cooper def Gov McCrory   INC def Dem pickup
NH: Hassen or Kuster is elected gov or reelected
VT: Gov Shumlin reelected
DeL: Dem gov

I'm sorry, but there is really no way that the dems hold WV Gov. without Manchin running. Republicans aren't going to nominate a joke - it will either be Morrisey or McKinley getting the GOP nod.

Democrats are going to hold onto the governorship in Missouri.

This is quite plausible, but it's far from a certainty.

MNY? Use understandable abbreviations, please.

I agree that WV is gone unless Manchin runs, and MO is probably Tilt or Lean R at this point. I'd say MT is Lean D, though, and NC is a toss-up.

Why would Missouri be lean R? The GOP's top candidate, Tom Schweich, just killed himself and the other top candidate, Catherine Hanaway, has been pretty thoroughly tied to several vicious ads against him. Also, the state Republican Party Chair, John Hancock, has been quoted by multiple GOP donors and operatives as making deragatory anti-Semetic comments about Tom Schweich. The only poll I have seen has Koster leading Hanaway by 6 points(granted, lots of undecideds), but there is no way she is gaining any popularity after Tom Schweich's death.

MO is lean GOP, because of presidential race. NC is a tossup, because of battleground nature of state.

My map perfectly fits how I think the presidential race will gp. I have no sympathy for GOV Bullock since he made the Joe Walsh appointment, cost Dems a seat in 2014 senate.

As for WVa, it assumes Manchin runs, which I am hoping.

So you don't think anything that has happened in the past month or two has had any impact on the Missouri gubernatorial race that was a toss up at best before? That's really rather ridiculous. Elections don't happen in vacuums, and the Missouri Democratic party has shown a remarkable capability to elect statewide candidates in recent years.s

No, MO is still a very populist state. It will go either way.

So Bullock will lose because you don't like him, and Manchin will win because you want him to? Ok.

No, Bullock was always vulnerable due to the Joe Walsh appointment, and the plagerism scandal. As this poll is indicative of. 

Manchin is more so ready to retire now, and appoint Goodwin Carter to the seat. Which will be a hold, since WVa has become a GOP leaning state.  Hopefully, he takes the lead from Reid and runs for gov.

How many months are there until the election again?

New Poll: Montana Governor by Gravis Marketing on 2015-02-25 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3020150225232)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 44%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-montana-polling-2/)

This one seems like a real toss-up. Hopefully, Bullock will pull ahead.