Talk Elections

If Marco Rubio's presidential campaign does not go well, can you see him running for governor in 2018 and winning?

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Marco-Rubio-Rick-Scott-Florida-politics/2015/02/10/id/623912/

Adam Putnam will be the Republican nominee for Governor of Florida in 2018.

Putnam would beat Rubio in the primary if Rubio even ran.

Yes to both of these statements

Would Putnam not prefer to challenge Nelson in 2018?

I thought that it was all-but-certain that Putnam is going to run for Governor.

So,
Rick Scott is running for senate in 2018, and we will have a messy republican primary for FL governor? :D

I highly doubt Scott will run in 2018; Florida GOP politics are planned out, as SJoyce noted, and I just don't see how Scott running for Senate would fit in with those plans.

Who will the RPOF run for the 2018 seat if Scott doesn't? Assuming that Atwater & Putnam are going to bludgeon each other in the Gov primary - Rooney? Weatherford?

I think Scott has a really high opinion of himself (Rumors of him looking at the Presidential race support this), and might just for Senate in 2018 regardless of what the Florida GOP wants.

It'd be funny if Scott ran for Senate and Bill Nelson ran for Governor. Probably the only way that Scott even gets that seat.

From what it sounded like, it seemed like Nelson was gearing up for another Senate run in 2018?

I don't know about Atwater, but I thought Putnam and Bondi were all-but-in (although they may not have the primary field to themselves).  I've heard Rooney is very interested in running for Senate, so he will probably run if he doesn't go for Rubio's open seat.  I could also see Vern Buchanan running (although he may be smart enough to realize Nelson would crush him if he made it past the primary).  If Dennis Ross is interested, he could also be a strong GE candidate although he might be vulnerable to a tea-party flavored candidate in the primary.  Given how Ron DeSantis has already consolidated a bunch of antiestablishment support (from both tea party and non-tea party groups), I suspect Clawson sits out 2016 which means he could potentially fill that ideological niche if he ran in 2018. 

On a different note, I know that Bob Buckhorn is all-but-in for Governor on the Democratic side (and seems like he could be a pretty solid candidate), but I was wondering if anyone else is expected to challenge him for the Democratic nomination (not that I have any objection to Buckhorn at this early date, just curious).

Putnam's been all-but-in for Governor; he's not interested in the Senate. Bondi could be interesting, though I'm not sure how much she wants the job - she's sounded a few notes of antipathy towards the Senate when asked about it this cycle. Can't see Ross being a strong candidate - he's been fairly quiet in Congress, not much to run on. Someone like Rooney would be a more dynamic candidate. Also can't see Buchanan - his ethics issues should sink him. Then again, we elected Rick Scott.


Possibly some South FL Dem seeking a bigger profile - Jack Seiler (mayor of Ft. Lauderdale) or somebody like that. No one who'll present a real threat to Buckhorn.

I meant that I thought Putnam and Bondi were all-but-in for Governor.

Fixed. Rubio hasn't cared about Florida politics for years.

^^^^^^^

Rubio will run for Nelson's seat after Nelson retires in 2018 at age 76.

Except he isn't. He's doing just the opposite. Jeb Bush is still the most popular Republican governor in this state's history and has the RPoF in a vice-grip. Rubio running against him will absolutely require him to burn all of his bridges with the RPoF. If Rubio intended to run for governor, he wouldn't put himself up against the vast majority of Republican operatives, donors and politicians in the state. No, he's going all in; if he isn't nominated for President or Vice President I don't think he'll never be elected in this state again.

Scott's agenda is to eliminate taxes of all kinds in FL to benefit his own business interests.  He knows that if he runs for President, his record at Columbia HCA, where he presided over a record-breaking Medicare fraud, will all be rehashed, and he'll be toast.

I don't care for Scott at all, but he was re-elected because he kept his campaign simple.  Jobs, jobs, jobs, with some basis to back up his claims.  He won't be able to keep it that simple on a national stage, but he's the Ayatollah of Message Discipline on the campaign trail.  He's always preferred an obvious and extreme lack of candor to making a gaffe or an embarrassing disclosure, and it's been working for him.

A possible scenario:

Putnam is the nominee for Governor. Bill Nelson announces that he will retire after three terms and Rubio runs for the open seat. If the Democratic nominee is not Gwen Graham (who something tells me will run for Governor before Senate, like her father), then Rubio begins the favorite. If he wins in this scenario he will be the first person to serve in both of a state's Senate seats since Frank Lautenberg (who also retired and came back in two years).

A possibility, but I believe Rubio would rather remain in the Senate.

Rubio just wants to be President. He doesn't really want a job where things have to be done.

Yes. Rubio wants to be a figurehead for much smarter people.

He's leaving the Senate.