Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Former Democrat on April 14, 2015, 06:51:07 AM



Title: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Former Democrat on April 14, 2015, 06:51:07 AM
Emerson College

CA President:
Clinton (D) 53%
Bush (R) 47%

Clinton (D) 53%
Walker (R) 47%

https://strehlspresidentialelection2016.wordpress.com/


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Tender Branson on April 14, 2015, 06:54:12 AM
LOL Emerson, try again.

Hillary wins by 15%+


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on April 14, 2015, 07:10:27 AM
()

Keep keeping on Emerson.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Flake on April 14, 2015, 07:10:44 AM
Why are you referencing a blog instead of the actual poll page?


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Brittain33 on April 14, 2015, 08:26:44 AM
0% undecided. What a state.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: pbrower2a on April 14, 2015, 08:57:22 AM
That sounds like a "Loof-Lipra" poll. Just read it backward.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on April 14, 2015, 10:51:59 AM
Clinton wins CA, like IL, 56-44.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 14, 2015, 10:57:48 AM
1. General election polls, at this stage, are meaningless
2. Even though, this poll is downright retarded


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: DrScholl on April 14, 2015, 10:58:42 AM
Republicans will eat this up and not question it at all.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Ebsy on April 14, 2015, 11:50:50 AM
I hope Republicans spend copious amounts of money in California.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 14, 2015, 12:00:27 PM
Emerson college is a joke. Last year, their final poll showed Tisei leading by 3 in MA-06, he lost by 14. And the 0% undecided in this poll is so obviously false at this point in the cycle.
 


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on April 14, 2015, 12:17:07 PM
JUNK POLL!


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: pbrower2a on April 14, 2015, 12:38:58 PM
The CBS affiliate in San Diego has repeated the poll:

http://www.cbs8.com/story/28796548/emerson-college-poll-california-may-be-in-play-for-2016-presidential-race-harris-leads-in-us-senate-race-71-support-water-use-restrictions

Quote
Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 46-point lead over Senator Elizabeth Warren, her nearest potential rival for the Democratic nomination. However, in head-to-head matchups with the top two GOP contenders, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, Clinton's 53% to 47% edge is within the poll's margin of error of +/- 3.2%. 

Somebody does not even understand polling statistics.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 14, 2015, 12:56:24 PM
The CBS affiliate in San Diego has repeated the poll:

http://www.cbs8.com/story/28796548/emerson-college-poll-california-may-be-in-play-for-2016-presidential-race-harris-leads-in-us-senate-race-71-support-water-use-restrictions

Quote
Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 46-point lead over Senator Elizabeth Warren, her nearest potential rival for the Democratic nomination. However, in head-to-head matchups with the top two GOP contenders, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, Clinton's 53% to 47% edge is within the poll's margin of error of +/- 3.2%. 

Somebody does not even understand polling statistics.

The margin of error means that each candidate's number, not the margin, may be off by, in this poll, up to 3.2%. So, under the best possible scenario for republicans, the margin of error would mean that Hillary is trailing 49.8-50.2 in CA. So, it's actually just barely within the margin of error under the minimal chance that this poll is actually credible.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: IceSpear on April 14, 2015, 02:33:32 PM
Emerson needs to fail their statistics majors.

()


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 14, 2015, 03:15:35 PM
Emerson needs to fail their statistics majors.

()

I doubt it's statistics students who do their polls. Their errors are always in a too-republican direction, so they probably just hire some low-key republican party operatives to produce their junk.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on April 14, 2015, 04:15:19 PM
Emerson needs to fail their statistics majors.

()

Wow, we make fun of muh ">Gravis" and muh "PPP approvals," but that record is nothing short of completely abysmal.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Skye on April 14, 2015, 04:18:44 PM
lol, try fooling someone else Emerson.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 14, 2015, 05:11:45 PM
As much as I'm not a Hillary fan, 0% undecided? Junk poll!


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 14, 2015, 05:15:57 PM
I hope Republicans spend copious amounts of money in California.

Yeah, go ahead Republicans! California can become Atlas blue, if only you spend 50-100 millions.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Vega on April 14, 2015, 05:28:23 PM
Why are you referencing a blog instead of the actual poll page?

He's gotta plug his blog some how. :P


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Holmes on April 14, 2015, 11:03:53 PM
Clinton wins CA, like IL, 56-44.

More like 60 - 38.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: CountryClassSF on April 15, 2015, 03:06:28 AM
Emerson College

CA President:
Clinton (D) 53%
Bush (R) 47%

Clinton (D) 53%
Walker (R) 47%

https://strehlspresidentialelection2016.wordpress.com/

I'm sorry to tell you that our state is still certifiably insane -- and this is a rotten poll.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on April 15, 2015, 04:08:26 PM
Hillary did beat Obama in the 2008 California primary, so she might not do as bad in CA as people think.
Check out the CA 2008 primary exit poll , she demolished Obama among Hispanics interestingly enough.

% of total   Clinton   Obama   Edwards
25      White men   33      60      5   
28      White women   53      40      6   
13      Latino men   62      37      1   
16      Latino women   69      30      0   
26      Today/In the last three days   47      49      4   


http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/CA.html


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: IceSpear on April 15, 2015, 06:02:59 PM
Hillary did beat Obama in the 2008 California primary, so she might not do as bad in CA as people think.
Check out the CA 2008 primary exit poll , she demolished Obama among Hispanics interestingly enough.

% of total   Clinton   Obama   Edwards
25      White men   33      60      5   
28      White women   53      40      6   
13      Latino men   62      37      1   
16      Latino women   69      30      0   
26      Today/In the last three days   47      49      4   


http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/CA.html

Yeah, the "Hillary can't appeal to minorities like Obama can" myth is quite adorable.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: pbrower2a on April 15, 2015, 06:27:00 PM
It's hard to see what Republican candidate can poach any significant part of the Obama vote in California of 2008 and 2012. The Hispanic wife of Jeb Bush can't do it, and Ted Cruz is the wrong sort of Hispanic for California,

Until the Republican nominee fully repudiates the bad economics and anti-intellectualism of Republicans in the 21st century, California is a Democratic lock for the Presidency.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: solarstorm on April 16, 2015, 05:56:49 AM
Hillary did beat Obama in the 2008 California primary, so she might not do as bad in CA as people think.
Check out the CA 2008 primary exit poll , she demolished Obama among Hispanics interestingly enough.

% of total   Clinton   Obama   Edwards
25      White men   33      60      5   
28      White women   53      40      6   
13      Latino men   62      37      1   
16      Latino women   69      30      0   
26      Today/In the last three days   47      49      4   


http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/CA.html

I'd like to know how Hillary polled among black men and women.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: H. Ross Peron on April 16, 2015, 10:45:13 AM
Hillary did beat Obama in the 2008 California primary, so she might not do as bad in CA as people think.
Check out the CA 2008 primary exit poll , she demolished Obama among Hispanics interestingly enough.

% of total   Clinton   Obama   Edwards
25      White men   33      60      5   
28      White women   53      40      6   
13      Latino men   62      37      1   
16      Latino women   69      30      0   
26      Today/In the last three days   47      49      4   


http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/CA.html

That's quite the impressive gender gap for whites.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Xing on April 17, 2015, 06:47:04 PM
Wow, look at that Bushmentum in California! Too bad there are no undecided voters, so he still can't win. However, if he only loses California by 6, he'll probably win the popular vote by 15!


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Unconditional Surrender Truman on April 17, 2015, 06:55:25 PM
Up next: Scott Walker leads in Vermont!


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on April 18, 2015, 04:50:51 PM
Hillary did beat Obama in the 2008 California primary, so she might not do as bad in CA as people think.
Check out the CA 2008 primary exit poll , she demolished Obama among Hispanics interestingly enough.

% of total   Clinton   Obama   Edwards
25      White men   33      60      5   
28      White women   53      40      6   
13      Latino men   62      37      1   
16      Latino women   69      30      0   
26      Today/In the last three days   47      49      4   


http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/CA.html

Yeah, the "Hillary can't appeal to minorities like Obama can" myth is quite adorable.

The irony of Obama being strongest with white men cracks me up.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: emailking on April 20, 2015, 11:05:41 AM
Clinton typically did much better against Obama with Hispanics than non-Hispanic whites in 2008. Obama almost certainly did better amongst blacks. It's just not included (or known) in that breakdown.


Title: Re: CA: Hillary leads by 6% only
Post by: bobloblaw on April 20, 2015, 11:42:35 AM
I hope Republicans spend copious amounts of money in California.

Yeah, go ahead Republicans! California can become Atlas blue, if only you spend 50-100 millions.

The sweet irony of you being a liberal and have a Greece avitar. How does it feel to be passed up by Turkey?