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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion => 2016 U.S. Presidential Election => Topic started by: solarstorm on April 16, 2015, 06:41:09 am



Title: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: solarstorm on April 16, 2015, 06:41:09 am
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2012
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2008
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1996
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1992

The last time a Republican won all counties was 1972.
The last time each county went Democratic was 1932.

Btw, Benton and Washington Counties seem to deeply hate the Democrats, which is pretty rare for the second and third most populous counties of a state...


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: Nichlemn on April 16, 2015, 06:45:07 am
Whatever 2004 was seems about right. (That might even be a bit optimistic for her).


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: solarstorm on April 16, 2015, 06:48:08 am
Whatever 2004 was seems about right. (That might even be a bit optimistic for her).

21 counties?

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Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: Snowstalker's Last Stand on April 16, 2015, 07:11:02 am
2004ish


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: bobloblaw on April 16, 2015, 09:23:57 am
Arkansas is NOT her homes state.


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: IceSpear on April 16, 2015, 03:02:23 pm
11-15


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: solarstorm on April 16, 2015, 03:05:00 pm
Arkansas is NOT her homes state.

Reading educates people, and educated people read.


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: solarstorm on April 16, 2015, 03:06:58 pm
11-15

Which counties do you think will Hillary gain to Obama's 9?


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: IceSpear on April 16, 2015, 03:09:07 pm
11-15

Which counties do you think will Hillary gain to Obama's 9?

No idea, I'm just guessing. Probably a few in the NE or SW quadrant.


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: Truth Hurts on April 16, 2015, 03:09:40 pm
16-20.

On a side note, Bill Clinton actually lost 30,000 popular votes in Arkansas between 1992 and 1996, although his overall percentage stagnated.


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: ElectionsGuy on April 16, 2015, 03:58:34 pm
I agree, 11-15, and probably towards the lower end of that for a Pryor-like loss.

Btw, Benton and Washington Counties seem to deeply hate the Democrats, which is pretty rare for the second and third most populous counties of a state...

Washington has a liberal university town (Fayetteville), but Benton and northwestern Arkansas is still very historically Republican. Unlike the rest of the state though, it isn't really trending Republican.


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: MATTROSE94 on April 17, 2015, 12:31:29 pm
Whatever 2004 was seems about right. (That might even be a bit optimistic for her).


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: bronz4141 on April 17, 2015, 07:58:57 pm
21-25.


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: ag on April 17, 2015, 08:38:20 pm
Arkansas is NOT her homes state.

She was, merely, its First Lady.


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: ag on April 17, 2015, 08:39:21 pm
11-15.


She was the First Lady there, but...


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: andrew_c on April 18, 2015, 02:00:10 am
Around 15 or so.


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: Blind Jaunting on April 18, 2015, 07:52:35 am
For a moment I thought you were referring to Illinois.

Anyway, the Clinton magic is pretty much thing of the past in Arkansas (even Bill wouldn't have carried his home state today), but I expect some "home state" factor.


Title: Re: How many counties will Hillary win in her former home state?
Post by: TDAS04 on April 18, 2015, 06:06:16 pm
I would guess more than Kerry, fewer than Gore.