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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2015, 12:27:35 pm



Title: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2015, 12:27:35 pm
52-40 Hillary/Walker

Walker job approval: 41-56

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/588754766492213251


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2015, 12:30:20 pm
Good numbers for Hilldog. Confirms the earlier PPP poll.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: King on April 16, 2015, 12:39:31 pm
I didn't know Walker was unpopular in WI.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2015, 12:40:50 pm
Looking at the feed, either a budget, presidential hit or both. But yeah, WI behaves differently presidentially than downballot.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2015, 12:41:54 pm
I didn't know Walker was unpopular in WI.

Apparently because of heavy school and university cuts which are extremely unpopular:

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78% of voters oppose Walker proposal to cut $127 million from K-12 school spending, 18% support that.

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Striking when something like the pub school spending proposal gets that much opposition, Franklin says.

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$300 million proposed cut in UW budget: very substantial level of opposition, Franklin says.

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70% oppose $300 million cut, 26% support it.

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60% oppose Walker proposal to make Natural Resources Bd advisory-only, 30% support that.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: publicunofficial on April 16, 2015, 12:59:18 pm
Wisconsin voters realize Scott Walker sucks only AFTER electing him 3 times.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 16, 2015, 12:59:59 pm
Checking back, Walker trailed Hillary between 7-12% even when his approvals were better. This isn't new. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Wisconsin)


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Skye on April 16, 2015, 01:06:47 pm
What's with that "we need governors" argument if you can't even get your people to vote for you again?


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Former Democrat on April 16, 2015, 01:32:33 pm
Hillary/Rand Paul: 49/41

Hillary/Jeb Bush: 49/38

Hillary/Marco Rubio: 50/38

Hillary/Ted Cruz: 52/36


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Ebsy on April 16, 2015, 01:48:47 pm
Wisconsin is totally out of the GOP's hands minus an extremely unlikely landslide.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Stockdale for Veep on April 16, 2015, 02:14:35 pm
Wisconsin voters realize Scott Walker sucks only AFTER electing him staying home 3 times.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Joshua on April 16, 2015, 02:16:36 pm
Wisconsin voters realize Scott Walker sucks only AFTER electing him staying home 3 times.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Landslide Andy on April 16, 2015, 02:53:48 pm
I took the PPP poll with a grain of salt, but Marquette is the gold standard. They're the Wisconsin version of Selzer. Amazing news!


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Eraserhead on April 16, 2015, 02:58:34 pm
How are the Republicans going to win the general again?


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Skill and Chance on April 16, 2015, 03:10:50 pm
Looking at the feed, either a budget, presidential hit or both. But yeah, WI behaves differently presidentially than downballot.

Starting to wonder if there will be a long run trend in the suburban North post Obama of voting Democratic federally and Republican for local and state.  "Red Dogs" if you will...


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Hydera on April 16, 2015, 03:58:24 pm
Looking at the feed, either a budget, presidential hit or both. But yeah, WI behaves differently presidentially than downballot.

Starting to wonder if there will be a long run trend in the suburban North post Obama of voting Democratic federally and Republican for local and state.  "Red Dogs" if you will...


As always, republicans have midterm advantage due to lower turnout especially for groups that dems rely on.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: King on April 16, 2015, 04:06:50 pm
How are the Republicans going to win the general again?

UR R A HACK.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: pbrower2a on April 17, 2015, 09:06:15 am
In 2000 and 2004, Wisconsin was close in the margin of popular vote, and Dubya won nationally. In 2008 and 2012 it was not close, and Obama won.

It is more cautious to say that Scott Walker has no positive Favorite Son effect (see Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania).


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on April 17, 2015, 09:11:18 am

A REAL conservative... duh.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear on April 17, 2015, 04:26:45 pm
Those who know Walker best reject him wholeheartedly. Excellent news !


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: pbrower2a on April 17, 2015, 05:00:09 pm
Scott Walker looks as if he could be the Republican equivalent in 2016 what Mike Dukakis was in 1988.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Xing on April 17, 2015, 06:43:17 pm
Well, so much for Walker being favored in Wisconsin in the general election. Hillary wouldn't beat him by 12 unless she won in a landslide, but polls haven't shown him doing any better in Wisconsin than in any of the real swing states.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: porky88 on April 17, 2015, 11:52:54 pm
I still wouldn't underestimate Scott Walker. Democrats in Wisconsin have been doing that for five years now, and he always beats them.

With that said, the home son or daughter affect is very overrated in presidential politics. Maybe John Kasich could carry Ohio if he’s somebody’s running mate, though I still have reservations about that. For the most part, the electorate is too polarizing to care about somebody living in the same state as him or her. Wisconsin reinforces this narrative. I suspect Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio won’t solidify Florida, either. The same goes for Tim Kaine and Mark Warner if Hillary chooses one of them as her running mate. Hillary win or lose Virginia on her own.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: TJ in Oregon on April 17, 2015, 11:58:33 pm
Walker is going through a bit of a rough patch in Wisconsin with the budget cuts and him presumptavely running for president. Wisconsinites never wanted President Walker to begin with; if we wanted any of the Wisconsin Republicans to run it was Paul Ryan. If he had to run for re-election again any time soon, Walker would probably lose. The state's economic numbers and budget look rather ugly at the moment.

Now, I voted for Scott Walker, but he doesn't look like the answer for president right now.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: porky88 on April 18, 2015, 12:08:39 am
Walker is going through a bit of a rough patch in Wisconsin with the budget cuts and him presumptavely running for president. Wisconsinites never wanted President Walker to begin with; if we wanted any of the Wisconsin Republicans to run it was Paul Ryan. If he had to run for re-election again any time soon, Walker would probably lose. The state's economic numbers and budget look rather ugly at the moment.

Now, I voted for Scott Walker, but he doesn't look like the answer for president right now.

I heard on the radio today that Wisconsin's unemployment rate dropped to like 4.6 percent, placing us well below the national average. I think this has more to do with Wisconsin stubbornly voting blue in presidential elections.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Anonymous on April 18, 2015, 07:35:15 am
How are the Republicans going to win the general again?

By nominating a true conservative like Ted Cruz to energize the "silent majority" base and convincing the nation that Hillary is another Kenyan Muslim who wasn't born here.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: TJ in Oregon on April 18, 2015, 09:16:47 am
Walker is going through a bit of a rough patch in Wisconsin with the budget cuts and him presumptavely running for president. Wisconsinites never wanted President Walker to begin with; if we wanted any of the Wisconsin Republicans to run it was Paul Ryan. If he had to run for re-election again any time soon, Walker would probably lose. The state's economic numbers and budget look rather ugly at the moment.

Now, I voted for Scott Walker, but he doesn't look like the answer for president right now.

I heard on the radio today that Wisconsin's unemployment rate dropped to like 4.6 percent, placing us well below the national average. I think this has more to do with Wisconsin stubbornly voting blue in presidential elections.

Maybe it's because I live in Madison and only hear the anger directed at Walker, but I never got the impression the current budget is particularly popular. One of the fastest ways a Republican can tick off squishy moderates is by cutting funding to education. I agree he'd probably be down in Wisconsin without that, but down 12 is a lot. Wisconsin, like most states, is more Democratic in presidential elections than midterms, but I don't see any reason why that trend would be particularly strong here compared to other places. If anything I'd expect it to be less important since we're such a high turnout state in general.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: politicallefty on April 18, 2015, 10:06:44 am
Maybe it's because I live in Madison and only hear the anger directed at Walker, but I never got the impression the current budget is particularly popular. One of the fastest ways a Republican can tick off squishy moderates is by cutting funding to education. I agree he'd probably be down in Wisconsin without that, but down 12 is a lot. Wisconsin, like most states, is more Democratic in presidential elections than midterms, but I don't see any reason why that trend would be particularly strong here compared to other places. If anything I'd expect it to be less important since we're such a high turnout state in general.

If Scott Walker's recall election was on November 6, 2012, do you really think he would've survived (even against the rather weak Tom Barrett)? Admittedly, there probably was a minority of largely centrist voters that rejected the notion of a recall for political reasons. Scott Walker won by about 170k votes with 2.5m voters in that election. However, President Obama won by over 210k with 3m voters and Tammy Baldwin won by almost 170k with roughly the same 3m voters.

Even beyond Wisconsin's typically high turnout, I think there is something fundamentally different in a presidential election compared with any other election. It seems like there's also a change in the very attitude of the electorate. If Scott Walker had to face a recall election on the same ballot as President Obama, I think his removal from office would have been successful.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: krazen1211 on February 27, 2017, 11:09:21 pm
Wisconsin is totally out of the GOP's hands minus an extremely unlikely landslide.

No.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Xing on February 28, 2017, 12:37:09 am
How are the Republicans going to win the general again?

By nominating a true conservative like Ted Cruz to energize the "silent majority" base and convincing the nation that Hillary is another Kenyan Muslim who wasn't born here.

Almost got it right. ;)

But this interesting, since I'm not sure why Wisconsin polling always underestimates Republicans. This happens every time, and it'll almost certainly happen again in 2018. 

Hmmm...


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wi/wisconsin_mccain_vs_obama-549.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_feingold_vs_johnson-1577.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/wi/wisconsin_governor_walker_vs_barrett-1184.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/wisconsin_senate_race.html

They may have in 2014 and 2016, but polls in general had a Democratic bias those years, so it's not really a Wisconsin thing.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Hillary+12 vs. Walker
Post by: Xing on February 28, 2017, 01:42:09 am
^Fair enough. But the D bias in 2016 was quite... extreme. Polling in general has become much worse.

As it was in several states. Either way, my point is that polling errors are fairly unpredictable, and can easily change from year to year.