Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2015, 12:29:17 PM



Title: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Tender Branson on April 16, 2015, 12:29:17 PM
54-38 Feingold/Johnson

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/588755160995856384


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 16, 2015, 12:33:31 PM
YESSSSSSSS


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: seanNJ9 on April 16, 2015, 12:39:28 PM
that's exciting..


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 16, 2015, 12:47:07 PM
Wow, this is beginning to look like a "Likely Democratic" race. Johnson is more vulnerable than Mark Kirk.
At this point, Democrats will almost certainly pick up WI, IL and NH. The path for the GOP to keep its Senate majority is getting narrower and narrower...
As for NH, since when does a 1 point lead for a candidate that might not even run mean an almost certain pickup?


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 16, 2015, 12:47:32 PM


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: seanNJ9 on April 16, 2015, 01:00:49 PM
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/588759551240994817
Quote
Our WI polling: 43/52 Walker approval, 52/43 Clinton lead, Feingold 50 Johnson 41.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Negusa Nagast 🚀 on April 16, 2015, 01:16:09 PM
dominating!


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on April 16, 2015, 01:19:44 PM
Wisconsin is quickly becoming the best state in the country.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Maxwell on April 16, 2015, 01:30:37 PM
You know who also had a dominant lead over a vulnerable Republican? Charlie Crist.

Don't respond to this with a page long post about how the two aren't exactly similar. Believe me I know. I just liked drawing the comparison.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Skye on April 16, 2015, 01:38:17 PM
This is why Wisconsin should be at the top of "Most Likely to party switch" lists.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 16, 2015, 01:38:57 PM
You know who also had a dominant lead over a vulnerable Republican? Charlie Crist.

Don't respond to this with a page long post about how the two aren't exactly similar. Believe me I know. I just liked drawing the comparison.
Crist never lead by 16 though.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Skye on April 16, 2015, 01:44:58 PM
You know who also had a dominant lead over a vulnerable Republican? Charlie Crist.

Don't respond to this with a page long post about how the two aren't exactly similar. Believe me I know. I just liked drawing the comparison.
Crist never lead by 16 though.
Correct. He lead by 23.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_1205.pdf


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Maxwell on April 16, 2015, 02:36:04 PM
You know who also had a dominant lead over a vulnerable Republican? Charlie Crist.

Don't respond to this with a page long post about how the two aren't exactly similar. Believe me I know. I just liked drawing the comparison.
Crist never lead by 16 though.
Correct. He lead by 23.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_1205.pdf

Wulfric, come on dude, do your homework.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: badgate on April 16, 2015, 02:59:42 PM
Go Russ!!


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Eraserhead on April 16, 2015, 03:02:13 PM
Beautiful.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: IceSpear on April 16, 2015, 03:50:10 PM
God dayum.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: ElectionsGuy on April 16, 2015, 03:56:40 PM
Yeah, he will not win by this much. But it sure makes Johnson look like the Pryor/Landrieu of the cycle.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: IceSpear on April 16, 2015, 07:11:52 PM
Yeah, he will not win by this much. But it sure makes Johnson look like the Pryor/Landrieu of the cycle.

Johnson has to be thinking of this right now.

()

It would be pretty funny if Johnson ended up getting Blanched, since if anyone was expected to be Blanched it was Kirk.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Maxwell on April 16, 2015, 07:29:53 PM
Then again, it's Marquette, which is the most reliable firm ever. So, yeah, things don't look good for Senator Johnson.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas on April 16, 2015, 07:50:45 PM
Johnson is the Santorum of this election cycle. He's getting crushed, because he hasn't been able to sync up his politics to his state like Toomey and Ayotte have.

I give Kirk better odds at holding on at this point, mainly because he's got a weaker opponent.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Brewer on April 16, 2015, 07:57:42 PM
Putting Russ Feingold back in the Senate should make up for the shock and sorrow of seeing Mark Udall leave!


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: free my dawg on April 17, 2015, 03:18:25 AM
Exagerrated a bit there, but I assume that Hassan will run. If she decides against a run, this is a Toss-up and lean R at best. Anyway, my thoughts:
1. NH is no longer a swing state, it is trending to the left.
2. Ayotte is not that popular (even among Republicans), while Hassan is really popular.
3. Possible Hillary coattails because the GOP will almost certainly lose NH in 2016.
4. Ayotte is not moderate enough for a state like NH. She doesn't have the same reputation that Mark Kirk has.

I don't even think Hassan will run, but if she does, Ayotte shouldn't be counted out.

1. Wouldn't go that far yet. It tilts D, but it's not a full-on lean.
2. The Senate is more polarizing than the governor's mansion.
3. The right Republican (like a Romney-type or even Rand) can still win here, even against Hillary. Anything can happen.
4. I guarantee you, by the time 2016 is over, Ayotte will be seen as more moderate to NH than Kirk is to IL. And even then, moderation doesn't really matter in NH. We're very independent-minded, and if you make a bit of an effort to compromise, you'll do well here. She's probably closer to Judd Gregg and the Sununus than Susan Collins, but if you give off an air of pragmatism, you can get elected.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on April 17, 2015, 03:56:20 AM
It's a nice lead, but you never know what might happen.  I'm putting this at tilt D. 


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on April 17, 2015, 04:14:58 AM


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: JRP1994 on April 17, 2015, 06:01:13 AM
Massive outlier - I'm skeptical. Need more corroborating evidence. But certainly looks good for Feingold at this point.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Brittain33 on April 17, 2015, 10:07:49 AM
Massive outlier - I'm skeptical. Need more corroborating evidence. But certainly looks good for Feingold at this point.

Ron Johnson's election in 2010 is looking like a massive outlier at this point.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Nhoj on April 17, 2015, 10:12:58 AM
Massive outlier - I'm skeptical. Need more corroborating evidence. But certainly looks good for Feingold at this point.

Ron Johnson's election in 2010 is looking like a massive outlier at this point.
Its more of a electorate thing. feingold wouldn't have lost in 2012 but would have in 2014.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Maxwell on April 17, 2015, 03:31:47 PM
It's a nice lead, but you never know what might happen.  I'm putting this at tilt D. 

That sounds correct.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Xing on April 17, 2015, 06:35:57 PM
I definitely don't buy that Feingold is ahead by that much, but Johnson is definitely one of the most vulnerable incumbents.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: pbrower2a on April 22, 2015, 07:44:13 AM
Yeah, he will not win by this much. But it sure makes Johnson look like the Pryor/Landrieu of the cycle.

Johnson has to be thinking of this right now.

()

It would be pretty funny if Johnson ended up getting Blanched, since if anyone was expected to be Blanched it was Kirk.

Blanche Lincoln had plenty of company in 2010.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Mr. Illini on April 23, 2015, 04:12:34 PM
#ReadyforRuss


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: free my dawg on April 23, 2015, 05:49:33 PM
1. Yeah, but it's certainly not the swing state that it was in 2000 or 2004 any more.
2. Agreed.
3. If a Romney-type Republican was a great fit for NH, why would Romney lose the state so badly? :P (he did worse in NH than in PA).
4. Sounds plausible.

*Of course. We aren't denying it's trending D.

*I'd imagine his flip-flopping and his other comments didn't help.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: LeBron on April 24, 2015, 01:08:45 AM
I could see myself getting behind Feingold. He definitely starts out with the advantage, and thankfully Johnson isn't self-funding his campaign like he was last time. On top of that, Feingold as far as I know is willing to accept outside money now. If he can define Johnson, then well....RIP Johnson.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on May 05, 2015, 02:42:17 PM
Wow, this is beginning to look like a "Likely Democratic" race. Johnson is more vulnerable than Mark Kirk.
At this point, Democrats will almost certainly pick up WI, IL and NH. The path for the GOP to keep its Senate majority is getting narrower and narrower...
If 2016 is a strong R year, Kirk, Johnson, and Ayotte will probably hold on, as will most other Republicans.

Anyway, has Feingold even announced whether he's running?  I'd like to see some polls of other possible candidates.  And Hassan hasn't announced in NH.

As for Illinois, Duckworth's got a scandal brewing, and the Dems could be in for a divisive primary if more candidates get in.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Gass3268 on May 05, 2015, 02:45:28 PM
Wow, this is beginning to look like a "Likely Democratic" race. Johnson is more vulnerable than Mark Kirk.
At this point, Democrats will almost certainly pick up WI, IL and NH. The path for the GOP to keep its Senate majority is getting narrower and narrower...
If 2016 is a strong R year, Kirk, Johnson, and Ayotte will probably hold on, as will most other Republicans.

Anyway, has Feingold even announced whether he's running?  I'd like to see some polls of other possible candidates.  And Hassan hasn't announced in NH.

As for Illinois, Duckworth's got a scandal brewing, and the Dems could be in for a divisive primary if more candidates get in.

What?


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Ebsy on May 05, 2015, 02:47:55 PM
Tax form scandals are the least sexy sort of scandal.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on May 05, 2015, 02:53:58 PM
Wisconsin is well on track to send two of the most liberal Democrats to the Senate like they belong!


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on May 05, 2015, 02:55:57 PM
Wow, this is beginning to look like a "Likely Democratic" race. Johnson is more vulnerable than Mark Kirk.
At this point, Democrats will almost certainly pick up WI, IL and NH. The path for the GOP to keep its Senate majority is getting narrower and narrower...
If 2016 is a strong R year, Kirk, Johnson, and Ayotte will probably hold on, as will most other Republicans.

Anyway, has Feingold even announced whether he's running?  I'd like to see some polls of other possible candidates.  And Hassan hasn't announced in NH.

As for Illinois, Duckworth's got a scandal brewing, and the Dems could be in for a divisive primary if more candidates get in.

We run strong in Pa; IL& FL; and OH. With or without Feingold.

Duckworth will survive this, and must.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: pbrower2a on May 05, 2015, 03:11:01 PM
Arizona isn't looking so great for Republicans, either.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Ogre Mage on May 05, 2015, 09:02:52 PM
Wisconsin is well on track to send two of the most liberal Democrats to the Senate like they belong!

Having Baldwin and Feingold as the two senators from WI would be beautiful (and make up for the horribleness of the Senate situation in Iowa, another swing state).


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: badgate on May 06, 2015, 12:36:41 AM
With numbers this bad, I've got to wonder if Johnson isn't considering bowing out.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on May 06, 2015, 12:59:21 AM
With numbers this bad, I've got to wonder if Johnson isn't considering bowing out.

Unlikely, but if he does, the question is who to run in his place. Tommy Thompson isn't going to try again after his 2012 embarrassment, Walker is running for President, Glenn Grothman (WI-6) isn't going to leave the house after just 1 term, Paul Ryan (WI-1) probably wants to stay in the house.

Republicans would be left with a choice between Fmr. Rep. Tom Petri (WI-6), Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (WI-5), Rep. Sean Duffy (WI-7) and Rep. Reid Ribble (WI-8). WI experts, which of these would be most likely to get the nomination in the event of a Johnson retirement, and would they have a better chance of beating Feingold than Johnson does?


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: publicunofficial on May 06, 2015, 07:01:28 PM
With numbers this bad, I've got to wonder if Johnson isn't considering bowing out.

Unlikely, but if he does, the question is who to run in his place. Tommy Thompson isn't going to try again after his 2012 embarrassment, Walker is running for President, Glenn Grothman (WI-6) isn't going to leave the house after just 1 term, Paul Ryan (WI-1) probably wants to stay in the house.

Republicans would be left with a choice between Fmr. Rep. Tom Petri (WI-6), Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (WI-5), Rep. Sean Duffy (WI-7) and Rep. Reid Ribble (WI-8). WI experts, which of these would be most likely to get the nomination in the event of a Johnson retirement, and would they have a better chance of beating Feingold than Johnson does?

There is no way in hell Tom Petri or Jim Sensenbrenner run for Senate.


Title: WI: Marquette Law School: Feingold Dominating
Post by: Flake on May 10, 2015, 11:23:22 AM
New Poll: Wisconsin Senator by Marquette Law School on 2015-04-10 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=55320150410181)

Summary: D: 54%, R: 38%, I: 3%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/MLSP28Toplines.pdf)


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: Ebsy on May 11, 2015, 01:52:01 PM
RIP Ron Johnson.


Title: Re: WI-Marquette: Feingold (D) with dominant lead against Sen. Johnson (R)
Post by: The Dowager Mod on May 22, 2015, 11:58:04 AM
Buyers remorse. LOL :D