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Title: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: solarstorm on April 19, 2015, 05:52:25 PM I dismissed the obvious answers, such as women, blacks or urban.
RSA = Religious service attendance FI = Family income Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: Oak Hills on April 19, 2015, 06:05:03 PM Moderates, independents, Hispanics, Asians, Catholics, Jews 30-49 years old, non-first-time-voters, RSA monthly and less than monthly, all education levels, FI <$75,000, Northeast, Midwest, West, suburban.
As things stand right now. They could easily change. Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: IceSpear on April 19, 2015, 06:25:12 PM Moderates, independents, Hispanics, Asians, Catholics, Jews 30-49 years old, non-first-time-voters, RSA monthly and less than monthly, all education levels, FI <$75,000, Northeast, Midwest, West, suburban. As things stand right now. They could easily change. This. Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: solarstorm on April 19, 2015, 06:28:30 PM Obama managed to win men and >$200,000 in 2008. Plus, he managed to win heterosexuals both times.
Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: IceSpear on April 19, 2015, 06:31:50 PM Oh, I didn't notice Oak Hills' post didn't include heterosexuals. I'm including that too.
Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: Oak Hills on April 19, 2015, 06:43:45 PM Meant to include heterosexuals, just forgot.
Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: Likely Voter on April 19, 2015, 07:17:32 PM I dismissed the obvious answers, such as women, blacks or urban. Actually most of the things you listed are obvious: Dem Groups Moderates Hispanic Asian Jews RSA Few Times A year Not HS grad Post Grad FI under 15 & under 30 Northeast West GOP Groups Men White Protestants RSA Weekly & More than weekly Evangelical 65 and older Over $200k South Rural 'swing' groups (w/ Obama 2012 margin): Independents -5 Catholic +2 Attend Church Monthly +9 30-39 +7 40-49 -2 50-64 -5 Heterosexuals -- HS grad +3 some college +1 college grad -4 $50-100k -6 $100-200k -5 Midwest ? (couldn't find 2012 number but was +9 in 08) Suburb -2 Predicted Hillary swing groups Catholics Attend Church Monthly 30-39 40-49 Heterosexuals HS grad some college $50-100k Midwest Suburb Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: Thunderbird is the word on April 19, 2015, 07:27:07 PM I wonder if Jeb would win the Catholic vote, this would be the first time in history that a Protestant Democrat was facing off against a Catholic Republican.
Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on April 19, 2015, 07:35:47 PM I wonder if Jeb would win the Catholic vote, this would be the first time in history that a Protestant Democrat was facing off against a Catholic Republican. First Catholic Republican in the top spot, period. Christie or Rubio could technically do so as well (or Santorum or Jindal I suppose). Seeing as they lost it by just 2 points in '12 plus with it trending towards them, I'd be pretty disappointed if they lost it. They won it in '04 for the first time I believe before Democrats made large gains with Hispanics in '08 Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: Suburbia on April 19, 2015, 07:37:25 PM Moderates, independents, Hispanics, Asians, Catholics, Jews 30-49 years old, non-first-time-voters, RSA monthly and less than monthly, all education levels, FI <$75,000, Northeast, Midwest, West, suburban. As things stand right now. They could easily change. Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: heatmaster on April 20, 2015, 08:33:12 AM You are not serious? If you are sicko of course, if you are a paedo yeah sure!😮 & you want a bullet to the back of the head, burned alive or castrated!
Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: All Along The Watchtower on April 20, 2015, 10:24:58 AM You are not serious? If you are sicko of course, if you are a paedo yeah sure!😮 & you want a bullet to the back of the head, burned alive or castrated! haha wtf Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: bobloblaw on April 20, 2015, 11:40:11 AM All of them
Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: Mr. Illini on April 20, 2015, 01:15:45 PM You are not serious? If you are sicko of course, if you are a paedo yeah sure!😮 & you want a bullet to the back of the head, burned alive or castrated! mods pls ban Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: VPH on April 20, 2015, 01:53:32 PM Jeb Bush is Catholic. I sincerely doubt Hillary can win the Catholic vote unless the Hispanic Catholic turnout is super high.
Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: IceSpear on April 20, 2015, 04:17:58 PM You are not serious? If you are sicko of course, if you are a paedo yeah sure!😮 & you want a bullet to the back of the head, burned alive or castrated! jao Title: Re: Which demographic subgroups will Hillary win against Bush? Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on April 20, 2015, 11:27:38 PM Jeb Bush is Catholic. I sincerely doubt Hillary can win the Catholic vote unless the Hispanic Catholic turnout is super high. If Republicans can get about 35% or more of the Hispanic vote (which Jeb would), they'll win Catholics. Hillary will win moderates but not independents. |