Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: JRP1994 on April 21, 2015, 10:14:25 AM



Title: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: JRP1994 on April 21, 2015, 10:14:25 AM
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/04/clinton-up-big-on-gop-field-in-nh.html


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: JRP1994 on April 21, 2015, 10:16:08 AM
Clinton: 49, Paul: 40
Clinton 49, Walker: 40
Clinton 50, Rubio 38
Clinton 49, Bush 36
Clinton 51, Carson 38
Clinton 51, Huckabee 38
Clinton 51, Perry 38
Clinton 51, Christie 36
Clinton 52, Cruz 37


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: MT Treasurer on April 21, 2015, 10:17:06 AM
"Independent, libertarian swing state" NH. LOL! Sorry, FreeBird :P


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Skye on April 21, 2015, 10:20:22 AM
That's quite a lot...

Clinton approval: 44/47


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Gallium on April 21, 2015, 10:29:58 AM
The leads she has with NH women are chasmic.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: King on April 21, 2015, 10:41:15 AM
- GWB won NH in 2000, and in 2004 he only lost it because Kerry was a northeastern candidate. He would have won it in 2004 against a generic democrat. All of the states I listed are states that Bush either won or got within 5 points in in 2004.

That being said, PPP is still including Elizabeth Warren so this is a joke poll.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Free Bird on April 21, 2015, 10:42:14 AM
"Independent, libertarian swing state" NH. LOL! Sorry, FreeBird :P

Don't see people calling Florida not a swing state because she sometimes has leads like that


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 21, 2015, 10:44:40 AM
Confirms the CNN poll.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: pbrower2a on April 21, 2015, 12:20:58 PM
Fringe of competitiveness. The only New England state to vote for a Republican nominee after 1988 suggests a solid Democratic firewall.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on April 21, 2015, 01:06:44 PM
LOL @Christie getting less of the vote than Cruz.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Former Democrat on April 21, 2015, 02:02:58 PM
it`s ine poll other polls showing a much closer race in NH far from over


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Ebsy on April 21, 2015, 02:03:47 PM
If she's basically already at 50% there is no way for Republicans to win the state.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Holmes on April 21, 2015, 02:30:22 PM
Fringe of competitiveness. The only New England state to vote for a Republican nominee after 1988 suggests a solid Democratic firewall.


NH is quite similar to Arkansas. Being the only independent state in a solid D/R region, it just adjusted to its environment. It has always been a question of time only.

That's a good comparison. But New Hampshire isn't shy about voting for Republicans, unlike Arkansas with Democrats.

Then again, maybe Arkansas will be more receptive to Democrats under a Republican presidency.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Skill and Chance on April 21, 2015, 04:05:07 PM
Fringe of competitiveness. The only New England state to vote for a Republican nominee after 1988 suggests a solid Democratic firewall.


NH is quite similar to Arkansas. Being the only independent state in a solid D/R region, it just adjusted to its environment. It has always been a question of time only.

That's a good comparison. But New Hampshire isn't shy about voting for Republicans, unlike Arkansas with Democrats.

Then again, maybe Arkansas will be more receptive to Democrats under a Republican presidency.

Well, to say that it is going the way of Arkansas means that we would expect it to be voting like VT by the mid-2020's.  It's not impossible, but I don't think that's likely.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Former Democrat on April 21, 2015, 04:30:16 PM
 The CNN poll is bullsh**t and everybody knows it!
sure Hillary is ahead in NH but I doubt that big
but even when it means nothing
NH is deciding lately in the game
not surprising it`s trending from purpe to be more slightly blue


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Likely Voter on April 21, 2015, 04:37:57 PM
NH may not be looking great but the GOP can't afford to ignore it. If VA is drifting D (especially with a Hillary/Warner or Hillary/Kaine ticket) then NH actually becomes a key part of their narrow path. If you start with Romney+FL,OH,CO,IA you get 268. NH gets you over the top. Without NH they have to start looking to win NV, WI or PA...all of which are either drifting even more D and/or a lot more expensive to target.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Former Democrat on April 21, 2015, 04:49:37 PM
I think a 270/268 outcome is very likely
VA will be tough
NH too
NV PA and WI are longshots imo
with Rubio of course NV could be in play and VA will be more likely


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Ebsy on April 21, 2015, 04:51:54 PM
I think a 270/268 outcome is very likely
VA will be tough
NH too
NV PA and WI are longshots imo
with Rubio of course NV could be in play and VA will be more likely

I think Clinton will win a lot more EVs than 270.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Panda Express on April 21, 2015, 04:54:19 PM
Not sure why people are surprised. NH's competitiveness has been inflated the past two cycles. McCain was affectionately referred to as the states third senator and Romney had it as one of his home states. None of the current GOP candidates have any advantages to make NH pseudo-competitive like the last two Republican candidates did. NH is not a swing state in a 50/50 election.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Former Democrat on April 21, 2015, 05:02:29 PM
the election will be close
Hillary probably won`t get 300EV or more
maybe she wins OH would give her 288EV but she will lose IA and probably CO
so I don`t see wheer more EV could come from


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: King on April 21, 2015, 05:06:05 PM
the election will be close
Hillary probably won`t get 300EV or more
maybe she wins OH would give her 288EV but she will lose IA and probably CO
so I don`t see wheer more EV could come from

Yea, yea we heard it last time, George Will.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Skill and Chance on April 21, 2015, 05:21:33 PM
Not sure why people are surprised. NH's competitiveness has been inflated the past two cycles. McCain was affectionately referred to as the states third senator and Romney had it as one of his home states. None of the current GOP candidates have any advantages to make NH pseudo-competitive like the last two Republican candidates did. NH is not a swing state in a 50/50 election.

Yes.  I find Lean D status for NH in 2016 plausible because Romney was literally the best possible Republican nominee for NH and he still did worse there than nationally.  He was also pretty much the worst possible Republican for IA and OH, so I see trouble for Democrats there.  Obama and Romney were both strong candidates for VA and CO, so it will be interesting to see what those states do this time.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Former Democrat on April 21, 2015, 05:24:28 PM
The clintons are not very popular in IA and CO neither
of course if Cruz or Carson or Huckabee is the nominee she would win them but with Bush Chrsitie Paul Fiorina or Rubio she`ll lose them


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: IceSpear on April 21, 2015, 05:35:59 PM
the election will be close
Hillary probably won`t get 300EV or more
maybe she wins OH would give her 288EV but she will lose IA and probably CO
so I don`t see wheer more EV could come from

Yeah, as we all know Florida is solid R.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on April 21, 2015, 05:51:29 PM
the election will be close
Hillary probably won`t get 300EV or more
maybe she wins OH would give her 288EV but she will lose IA and probably CO
so I don`t see wheer more EV could come from
Let's give you the benefit of the doubt and say she loses IA & CO.
(
)
The other EVs come from NH, FL, VA, OH, & NV for a 317-221 Clinton win.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Skye on April 21, 2015, 06:00:13 PM
It baffles me that you are trying to come up with results when the candidates haven't even been decided, and the national campaigns have not started yet.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Former Democrat on April 21, 2015, 06:30:45 PM
FL would be republican with Rubio


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: IceSpear on April 21, 2015, 06:38:15 PM

Based off what? A single Mason Dixon poll? Their track record is awful.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: pbrower2a on April 21, 2015, 11:00:00 PM
PPP polls Iowa this weekend.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Tender Branson on April 22, 2015, 02:05:25 AM

No, it does not.

NH is ca. D+2

Like all other recent state polls, this poll here indicates a national lead for Hillary of ca. 7-11 points, depending on which top candidate you are using.

The CNN poll had twice these margins, which makes it junky.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: YaBoyNY on April 22, 2015, 05:29:09 AM
The clintons are not very popular in IA and CO neither
of course if Cruz or Carson or Huckabee is the nominee she would win them but with Bush Chrsitie Paul Fiorina or Rubio she`ll lose them

I'm really not sure where you're getting this idea from.

Are we just discounting the polls we want to discount because reasons?


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Devils30 on April 22, 2015, 01:54:11 PM
Romney and McCain were both very good fits for NH. Both lost the state by more than their national number. It doesn't make sense for the GOP to run expensive ads in the Boston media market and I see NH-1 flipping back to the Democrats.


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: DS0816 on April 22, 2015, 06:00:28 PM
In the past: Every time a Republican won the presidency…New Hampshire carried.

In the present (and future): Every time a Democrat has won the presidency…New Hampshire carried/carries.

If the Democrats win a third consecutive presidential election with 2016…New Hampshire will carry.



Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: DS0816 on April 22, 2015, 06:30:21 PM
In the past: Every time a Republican won the presidency…New Hampshire carried.

Bush won without NH in 2004. I don't think NH is a pivotal state for the GOP.

I know.

I was going to add the state-breaks in patterns, for winning Republicans and winning Democrats, going back to a 1968 Richard Nixon but I figured … the hell with all that.

Certainly, you understand this!


Title: Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot
Post by: Likely Voter on April 22, 2015, 06:38:25 PM
In the past: Every time a Republican won the presidency…New Hampshire carried.

Bush won without NH in 2004. I don't think NH is a pivotal state for the GOP.

If Clinton carries VA and NH how does GOP get to 270? (Assuming they pick up FL, OH, CO,  and IA)

You are left with....
 WI (unlikely w/o Walker and still difficult with him),
NV? (Looks more and more like NM which the GOP gave up on in 2012)
PA? (Much bigger and more expensive than NH and Hillary is better fit than Obama)

after that you get into fantasy land of turning MI, MN, OR, or NM into a tipping point.