Talk Elections

Now that New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu has refused to retake the Governor's Mansion (which I think was a big, big mistake) David Vitter is likely to become Jindal's successor.

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I'd say we're at a 60% chance of a Vitter win and a 40% chance of a Dardenne win. I just don't see a path for Edwards, though I'm waiting for additional polling before I move the race over to Safe R. Angelle doesn't have a path to victory, period.

I mean, maybe if Dardenne made the run-off he'd have a chance. But it looks like he's going to get a very very distant third place in the jungle primary, and Edwards obviously loses to Vitter. That being said, it probably will go to a second round.

Sigh, Vitter but there's no chance he wins outright.

Vitter in runoff with Edwards.

The same. Edwards as lone Democratic candidate (at least serious) will, most likely, get into runoff, and Dardenne and Angele - win enough votes to force run-off, but Vitter will win. By present day Louisiana standards he (Vitter) is even not especially conservative...

Let's see what the nxt poll comes in at; I am clearly not giving up on Bel Edwards. Especially, against Vitter who has baggage. I am willing to give Edwards a chance.

You - may be. But not people of Louisiana.

Yes, Vitter will win, but he is polarizing; unlike Foster and Jindall, because of this, this race LR, not Safe GOP. That's why I quoted Miles.

IMHO, Jindal is even more polarizing. But race is really at least Likely R. May be the best solution for Democrats in this situation would be not to run their candidate at all and tacitly endorse Dardenne. He could beat Vitter in 1-1 race, and is a pragmatic conservative (probably the best we can expect from Louisiana in statewide race for now). But right now he, most likely, will not get into run-off.

Unlike Jindal (who is at 30% approval in a deeply Republican state) and Foster (who won David Duke's endorsement), yes, I agree, David Vitter is totally polarizing.

Who is feeding you lines, your dog?

Who is "Edwards"?

John Bel Edwards, the Democratic candidate for Governor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bel_Edwards)

Option 2

I predict John Bel Edwards will pull out a narrow win over Diaper Dave.

Vitter avoids a runoff.

I suspect Edwards's will end with about 23-25% of vote, and Dardenne will likely receive about 18-20%, Vitter receives almost everything else, roughly 51-54%... The big question is how much Edwards will receive, while Dardenne probably won't make the runoff.

^ You forgot about Angelle...

Friendly advice: please go to wikipedia BEFORE you come out with some bold prediction.

Angelle will only get like 7% though.