Talk Elections

ElectionsGuy's 50 Equal States project inspired me to revise my Senate Redistricting project from 2012.

Senate Redistricting Rules
1. The 100 members of the United States Senate are now elected, via first-past-the-post, from 100 Senate Regions.
2. The 100 Regions are drawn from the current 50 states and the District of Columbia.
3. The population target for each region is 3,087,455 people.
4. A deviation of plus or minus 5% is allowed. Regions can be between 2,933,083 and 3,241,828 people.
5. When possible:
- Keep all Voting Rights Act (VRA) protected minority neighborhoods/areas together.
- Create minority opportunity regions.
- Keep counties whole.
- Keep county subunits (cities, towns, villages, neighborhoods, etc.) whole.
- Keep major metropolitan areas and urban county clusters together.
- Keep states together.
6. Acceptable reasons to split counties:
- County is too large to be kept whole.
- Geographic restrictions.
- Keeping a VRA area together or the creation of a minority opportunity region.
- Helping keep another state whole.   

Here is the map:

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Starting probably tomorrow, I will be posting information about the make-up and election results about each district. I will also provide comment on my thought process on how each region was created. 

Region: Northeast New England (Red)
Largest City: Manchester, NH
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Franklin Pierce
PVI: D+3

Obama 2012: 54.4%
Romney 2012: 43.4%

Obama 2008: 56.3%
McCain 2008: 42.0%

Region Swing: 3.3% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.1% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Maine: 44%
Massachusetts: 13%
New Hampshire: 43%

Region Comment:
After putting Maine and New Hampshire together this region still need to add 9% to 19% of the regions's population. Vermont is 20% of a region, so I would have to split the state to add it to this Region and I want to avoid that. So I went into Essex County, Massachusetts and grabbed the necessary 13%. This region has Susan Collins written all over it.

Region: Massachusetts Bay (Green)
Largest City: Boston, MA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President John Adams
PVI: D+12

Obama 2012: 63.6%
Romney 2012: 34.6%

Obama 2008: 64.4%
McCain 2008: 33.6%

Region Swing: 1.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.7% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Massachusetts: 100%

Region Comment
The goal here was to keep as much of the inner Boston Metropolitan area together as possible and I was able to do that. Both Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey would dominate in this district, but who exactly would be dependent on when this system was put in place as Ted Kennedy would have been the incumbent here for a long time.

Awesome.

Region: Southeast New England (Blue)
Largest City: Worcester, MA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Rodger Williams
PVI: D+6

Obama 2012: 57.1%
Romney 2012: 41.1%

Obama 2008: 58.4%
McCain 2008: 39.3%

Region Swing: 3.1% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.3% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Massachusetts: 67%
Rhode Island: 33%

Region Comment
The objective here was to try to keep as much as the outer Boston Metropolitan area together. Originally I would take this region into Eastern Connecticut, but I realized this time around that all of Worcester County would fit. This also allowed for almost all of Connecticut to be whole in the next region. Senator George Reed would be strong in this region.  

Region: Southwest New England (Yellow)
Largest City: Springfield, MA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Senator Roger Sherman
PVI: D+8

Obama 2012: 59.6%
Romney 2012: 39.2%

Obama 2008: 61.2%
McCain 2008: 37.3%

Region Swing: 3.6% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.2% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Connecticut: 85%
Massachusetts: 15%

Region Comment
Connecticut was too large for one region so it made sense to split off Fairfield County and put it with the northern New York City suburbs. Hampden County made sense as there are economic connections between Hartford, CT and Springfield, MA. Chris Murphy would be the Senator from this region

Region: Adirondacks & Northwest New England (Purple)
Largest City: Albany, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Calvin Coolidge
PVI: D+7

Obama 2012: 59.1%
Romney 2012: 38.6%

Obama 2008: 58.7%
McCain 2008: 39.3%

Region Swing: 1.0% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 4.4% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Massachusetts: 12%
New York: 68%
Vermont: 20%

Region Comment
The intent of this region was to take the remainder of New England (with the exception of Fairfield County, CT which again will be with the northern New York City suburbs) and then combine it with as much of upstate New York as possible before getting to the Syracuse metropolitan area. I was able to get all of the Capital District, Mohawk Valley and North Country in this region. Both Patrick Leahy and Bernie Sanders are from this region, but with New York making up more than 2/3rds of this region I would guess a New Yorker would represent this region.

Region: Long Island (Beige)
Largest City: New York City, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Theodore Roosevelt
PVI: D+2

Obama 2012: 53.4%
Romney 2012: 45.5%

Obama 2008: 53.9%
McCain 2008: 45.3%

Region Swing: 0.8% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.6% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New York: 100%

Region Comment
Nassau and Suffolk counties together only make up 91% of a region, so I had to go into New York City.  I added the Rockways and the far northeastern neighborhoods of Queens. Congressmen Steve Israel and Peter King would both be good bets for this region.

Region: Jamaica Bay (Yellow)
Largest City: New York City, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Jackie Robinson
PVI: D+33

Obama 2012: 86.9%
Romney 2012: 13.4%

Obama 2008: 83.4%
McCain 2008: 16.2%

Region Swing: 6.2% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 9.6% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New York: 100%

Region Comment
This region is the minority-majority region for Brooklyn and Queens in New York City. Predominately the southern parts of these two boroughs with two arms into the northern neighborhoods. Congressman Gregory Meeks, Congresswoman Yvette Clark or Nydia Velazquez would be strong candidates in this region.

And that is why we have one chamber organized on the basis of each state being represented equally. :P

Region: New York Bay (Brown)
Largest City: New York City, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Secretary of the Treasury Alexander Hamilton
PVI: D+19

Obama 2012: 71.7%
Romney 2012: 26.1%

Obama 2008: 71.1%
McCain 2008: 28.0%

Region Swing: 2.5% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 5.9% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New York: 100%

Region Comment
This this the white New York City region and it is the only region with all five boroughs in it. I was not thrilled with having to take in some of the Bronx into this region, but it was either that or go into New Jersey, which I only wanted to do once with a New York City region. This would totally be Chuck Schumer's region as he lives in a well off area in Brooklyn and he's essentially Senator Wall Street.

Region: Harlem River & Newark Bay (Red)
Largest City: New York City, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Billie Holiday
PVI: D+35

Obama 2012: 87.8%
Romney 2012: 11.5%

Obama 2008: 85.6%
McCain 2008: 13.8%

Region Swing: 4.5% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 7.9% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New Jersey: 42%
New York: 58%

Region Comment
The objective here was to connect the rest of New York City (Harlem and most of the Bronx) with the minority-majority communities in Northern New Jersey. I was able to add all of Hudson County, a couple cities from Essex County including Newark, and a strip of counties along the Hudson River in Bergen County to connect Northern New York City to Essex and Hudson counties. Cory Booker would dominate this region, even though Bob Menendez is also from here. This is also the most Democratic region in the United States.

Region: Lower Hudson River Valley (Orange)
Largest City: Yonkers, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Franklin Delano Roosevelt
PVI: D+6

Obama 2012: 57.8%
Romney 2012: 43.7%

Obama 2008: 57.9%
McCain 2008: 41.2%

Region Swing: 2.6% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.8% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Connecticut: 29%
New York: 71%

Region Comment
This region is the Northern New York City suburbs region. Very happy how this district does not bump into any other New York region and that its pretty compact. Richard Blumenthal is from this region, but again I imagine a New Yorker like Representatives Elliot Engel or Nita Lowey.

Region: Lake Ontario Shoreline (Beige)
Largest City: Buffalo, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Grover Cleveland
PVI: D+3

Obama 2012: 55.0%
Romney 2012: 43.0%

Obama 2008: 55.4%
McCain 2008: 43.0%

Region Swing: 0.4% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 3.0% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New York: 100%

Region Comment
The goal for this region was to combine the Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse metropolitan areas together and luckily I was able to do this. Brian Higgins or Kathy Hochul would both be strong in this region.

Massachusetts

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New York City

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New Jersey

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Region: Northern Appalachia (Pink)
Largest City: Binghamton, NY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President James Buchanan
PVI: R+11

Obama 2012: 39.2%
Romney 2012:58.8%

Obama 2008: 43.6%
McCain 2008: 54.7%

Region Swing: 8.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 5.1% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
New York: 27%
Pennsylvania: 73%

Region Comment
This region was constructed with the left over parts of New York and Pennsylvania. It worked out really well as I was able to connect most of the Southern Tier of New York with Central Pennsylvania aka Penntucky. Congressman Tom Reed would dominate in the Southern Tier while Congressmen Tom Marino, Glenn Thompson, and Bill Shuster (all from Pennsylvania) would be strong in this region.

Region: Skyland (Green)
Largest City: Paterson, NJ
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Associate Justice William Paterson
PVI: D+2

Obama 2012: 54.5%
Romney 2012: 45.0%

Obama 2008: 53.2%
McCain 2008: 45.6%

Region Swing: 2.0% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 5.4% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New Jersey: 100%

Region Comment
This was the last region I drew in New Jersey and my goal was to keep it 100% in Northern New Jersey. Luckily there was just enough population remaining in the state to reach the minimum population required. This would be a strong region for Bob Menendez if he wanted to move here. I could also see a "moderate" Republican like Leonard Lance would do well here.

Region: Jersey Shore (Blue)
Largest City: Trenton, NJ
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Woodrow Wilson
PVI: D+1

Obama 2012: 53.3%
Romney 2012: 45.9%

Obama 2008: 52.5%
McCain 2008: 46.6%

Region Swing: 1.7% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 5.1% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New Jersey: 100%

Region Comment
I came up with this region after completing the New York City and Philadelphia regions. The objective here was to connect the remainder of South Jersey with Central/Lower Northern Jersey, but still leave enough people in the north for the region I just discussed. Congressman Frank Pallone Jr would have a good base here, but so would Republican Congressmen Frank LoBiondo and Chris Smith.

Region: City of Brotherly Love (Red)
Largest City: Philadelphia, PA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Benjamin Franklin
PVI: D+20

Obama 2012: 71.9%
Romney 2012: 27.1%

Obama 2008: 71.7%
McCain 2008: 27.4%

Region Swing: 0.4% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 3.8% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
New Jersey: 6%
Pennsylvania: 94%

Region Comment
The Philadelphia metropolitan area has enough people for essentially two regions, this region was designed to be the core region. This means that the City of Philadelphia is here plus most of the inner suburbs. Unfortunately Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia counties are 1% shy of the minimum population, I had to break up a county. I chose to add the minority areas of Camden County, NJ as I felt it would have more in common with a region anchored by the City of Philadelphia, rather than one made up of the suburbs. Many Democratic choices here to choose from. Former Mayor Michael Nutter, Congressman Bill Brady or Congressman Chaka Fattah.   

Region: Delaware River Valley (Beige)
Largest City: Wilmington, DE
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Vice President Joe Biden
PVI: D+6

Obama 2012: 56.4%
Romney 2012: 42.3%

Obama 2008: 58.7%
McCain 2008: 39.9%

Region Swing: 4.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.3% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Delaware: 18%
New Jersey: 43%
Pennsylvania: 39%

Region Comment
This takes the rest of the Philadelphia metropolitan area and needs up being an exclusively suburban region. Both Tom Carper and Chris Coons live in this district and with the even split between New Jersey and Pennsylvania, I could see either doing well in this region.

Nice Work! :)

Region: Eastern Valleys (Cyan)
Largest City: Allentown, PA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Congressman Thaddeus Stevens
PVI: R+2

Obama 2012: 48.3
Romney 2012: 50.0%

Obama 2008: 51.5%
McCain 2008: 47.0%

Region Swing: 6.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.8% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Pennsylvania: 100%

Region Comment
The objective of this region was to put together all of the major cities and metropolitan areas to the northeast of Philadelphia. This included Leigh Valley, Wyoming Valley, Harrisburg, Reading and Lancaster. The only areas that I did not have from for that should probably be in this region is York and the western Harrisburg suburbs. Both Bob Casey and Pat Toomey are from this region, so this could be an incumbent vs. incumbent battle, but I could also see either moving to a safer Pennsylvania region.  

Region: Northwest Appalachia (Brown)
Largest City: Pittsburgh, PA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Andrew Carnegie
PVI: R+2

Obama 2012: 48.5
Romney 2012: 50.0%

Obama 2008: 50.6%
McCain 2008: 47.8%

Region Swing: 4.3% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.9% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Pennsylvania: 100%

Region Comment
My first goal for this region was to have all of the Pittsburgh metropolitan area together, but that was pretty far away from the necessary population. So after that my objective was to add as much of Western Pennsylvania to this region. Tim Murphy would be a strong candidate here for the Republicans while former Congressman Jason Altmire and current Congressman Michael Doyle would both be good choices for the Democrats.

Region: Upper Chesapeake Bay (Yellow)
Largest City: Baltimore, MD
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Harriet Tubman
PVI: D+5

Obama 2012: 56.6%
Romney 2012: 41.0%

Obama 2008: 56.4%
McCain 2008: 41.7%

Region Swing: 1.1% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 0.9% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Maryland: 100%

Region Comment
When drawing this region I wanted it to include all of the Baltimore metropolitan area and the remaining counties that were not part of the Eastern Shore, Washington metropolitan area or Western Panhandle. Unfortunately this was not enough people for one region, so I had to go into the Eastern Shore pretty substantially. This would be Barbara Mikulski's region, but with her retirement I could see Ben Cardin running in this seat as I would assume he would still be in the house.

Reposting the map so everyone can see it on this page.

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I'd put York and the rest of the Harrisburg metro in there, exchanging with Scranton.  Scranton/Wilkes-Barre belong with the NY southern tier/PA northern tier much more than York does.  Similarly I'd put Erie in with those tiers; you can send Pittsburgh east rather than north. 

Region: Mouth Of The Potomac (Orange)
Largest City: Washington, DC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Duke Ellington
PVI: D+24

Obama 2012: 76.1%
Romney 2012: 22.1%

Obama 2008: 76.3%
McCain 2008: 22.5%

Region Swing: 0.1% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 3.5% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
District of Columbia: 20%
Maryland: 80%

Region Comment
The goal when drawing this region was it to be only the District of Columbia and the DC Maryland suburbs. Both Chris Van Hollen and Donna Edwards would run for the Senate seat in this region.

Thank you for your suggestions, but I am gonna keep it the way I have. I like having a Western PA, Central PA and Eastern PA regions.

Seems overly artificial to prefer boundaries simply because they're north-south, when the cultural and geographic boundaries clearly run in other directions. 

eg, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Mountain_%28Pennsylvania%29

I'll look into the changes you have proposed and then post it when I'm done posting the data for all the other regions. See what the other readers think.

Cool.  Thanks for the series, it's interesting. 

Region: Northern Piedmont (Green)
Largest City: Arlington, VA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President George Washington
PVI: D+6

Obama 2012: 57.3%
Romney 2012: 41.9%

Obama 2008: 58.2%
McCain 2008: 40.8%

Region Swing: 2.1% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.3% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Virginia: 100

Region Comment
Originally for this region I just wanted the Washington suburbs in Virginia (not including Clarke, Paige or Warren counties as from personal experience they are clearly part of the Shenandoah area). Unfortunately that only results in about 60% of what is needed for a region. Originally I wanted to go get all of the eastern peninsula counties along and south of the Potomac River, but they are way too under-populated to get the region to the necessary population. Therefore I had to move south and add the Charlottesville metropolitan area to this region. Mark Warner lives in Northern Virginia and he would dominate this region.  

Region: Lower Chesapeake Bay (Purple)
Largest City: Virginia Beach, VA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Pocahontas
PVI: D+1

Obama 2012: 52.8%
Romney 2012: 46.0%

Obama 2008: 53.5%
McCain 2008: 45.7%

Region Swing: 1.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.4% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Delaware: 11%
Maryland: 6%
North Carolina: 24%
Virginia: 59%

Region Comment
When drawing this district I wanted it to be what was left of the Delvamar peninsula along with the Hampton Roads metropolitan area (plus Sussex County, VA which is in the Richmond metropolitan area but looks so much better when added to this region). Unfortunately this resulted in the region still needing about 750,000 to reach minimum population. Adding the Richmond metropolitan area would have it go way over the maximum allowed population, so I had to go into Northeast North Carolina. Republican Congressman Scott Rigell would a very strong candidate for this region give his relative moderate imagine and the fact he represents the largest city in this region. Congressmen Bobby Scott of Newport News, VA and G.K. Butterfield of Wilson, NC.

The TX splits don't seem to follow your rules. The DFW urban county cluster is good for two senate districts one of which is the majority-minority carve out, but Johnson and Ellis were left out in your proposal. Also in south TX you split the Austin UCC, but it doesn't create a VRA district or even a real minority opportunity district. The stronger minority situation would link San Antonio to El Paso and bring the Lower Rio Grande northward through Corpus Christi.

I'll post what I'm describing later this morning.

Region: Tobacco Road (Cyan)
Largest City: Raleigh, NC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Governor Patrick Henry
PVI: D+4

Obama 2012: 55.1%
Romney 2012: 43.6%

Obama 2008: 56.3%
McCain 2008: 42.6%

Region Swing: 2.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
North Carolina: 57%
Virginia: 43%

Region Comment
When drawing this district I first wanted it to be the Richmond metropolitan area and then go from there on what I needed to add. The Richmond metropolitan area is about 40% of what is needed for a region. At first I thought of adding the Shenandoah Valley area, but that would not have had enough people and it would have been a very ugly looking region and the two areas really don't have much in common with the Charlottesville area blocking the two. So instead I went into North Carolina and added the Research Triangle area (Durham-Chapel Hill and Raleigh metropolitan areas). Tim Kaine is from Richmond and would in all likelihood be the Senator from this region.

I like your idea for South Texas, this was a pretty frustrating are because both Austin and San Antonio UCC's don't have enough people for a region each, but are too large for one region together. I never thought of splitting the Rio Grande district, but that could work. Ellis/Johnson could not fit in the suburban DFW region because of geography and it put the region over the population limit. Unless you have a better way to draw it?

Here's what I put together respecting all the UCCs. 2 VRA districts are established in south TX (58.1% and 67.2% HVAP) and 2 minority coalition districts are established in DFW and Houston. All four were carried by Obama in 2008.

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I really like this. Do you happen to have the population and raw vote totals for the inner DFW and Houston regions? I need those to do the add-ups and calculations for PVI's, swings, trends and population deviation.

For DFW: 3,068,901 pop; 37.0% WVAP, 22.8% BVAP, 33.7% HVAP; Pres 08: D 540,244, R 370,312.

For Houston: 3,142,095 pop; 30.5% WVAP, 20.8% BVAP, 40.9% HVAP; Pres 08: D 487,391, R 349,032

I hope that helps. I am also curious how many Latino districts you have in CA. Based on 2010 numbers, there should be at least 3 where Latinos would control the outcome (50% HCVAP or > 60% HVAP).

Region: Triad & Shenandoah Valley  (Beige)
Largest City: Greensboro, NC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Booker T. Washington
PVI: R+8

Obama 2012: 42.8%
Romney 2012: 55.6%

Obama 2008: 45.5%
McCain 2008: 53.4%

Region Swing: 4.9% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.5% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
North Carolina: 51%
Virginia: 49%

Region Comment
I drew this region after drawing the red Coal Country region. I was very happy that I was able to keep the entire Triad whole while adding what was left of Virginia. Richard Burr is from this region and he would probably represent it. Kay Hagen lives in Greensboro, but this is way too Republican for her.

Thanks for that!

The Downtown/South Central Los Angeles region is over 50% HCVAP with a large black minority (like 20-25%) and whites only making up like 15%. The region to the east of it in LA County is like plurality Hispanic (around 40%) with a large Asian influence (around 30%) with whites around 25%. I also think the central valley district would also be over 50% or at least pretty close. I wish I could have had official demographic information for this, but my DRA runs extremely slow for basically any state larger than Virginia. Unless there is a place were I could get the data in like a excel sheet. If that was the case I could add everything up from what I have and maybe make some changes.

Region: Central Appalachia (Red)
Largest City: Charleston, WV
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd
PVI: R+16

Obama 2012: 32.8%
Romney 2012: 64.9%

Obama 2008: 40.0%
McCain 2008: 58.1%

Region Swing: 14.1% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 10.7% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Kentucky: 25%
Maryland 8%
Virginia: 8%
West Virginia: 59%

Region Comment
My goal he was to keep as much of the southern Coal County together and I am very happy how this region turned out. Amazing to think that Bill Clinton probably won this region in both 92 and 96. Joe Manchin would have a decent shot to stay in the Senate, representing this region but I would not be shocked if someone like Shelly Moore Capito beat him.

Region: Bluegrass Country (Cyan)
Largest City: Louisville, KY
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Speaker Of The House Henry Clay
PVI: R+10

Obama 2012: 41.0%
Romney 2012: 57.3%

Obama 2008: 43.2%
McCain 2008: 55.2%

Region Swing: 4.3% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.9% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Indiana: 10%
Kentucky: 90%

Region Comment
My initial objective here was to have the Louisville metropolitan area and the rest of Kentucky together. Unfortunately there was just too much of suburban Louisville that I had to grab in Indiana. So I return I have the Jackson Purchase region of Kentucky to the Central/West Tennessee region as that area is culturally regarded as the most "Southern" region of Kentucky. Both Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul live in this region, so McConnell is probably the Senator from here. However a Paul primary of McConnell would be expected.

Region: Sandhills & Pee Dee (Brown)
Largest City: Fayetteville, NC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Governor Richard Dobbs Spaight
PVI: R+5

Obama 2012: 47.2%
Romney 2012: 51.9%

Obama 2008: 47.2%
McCain 2008: 51.9%

Region Swing: 0.1% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 3.3% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
North Carolina: 71%
South Carolina 29%

Region Comment
This was the last region that I drew in North Carolina and the Southeastern part of the state made up about 70% of what was needed for a region, so I had to get the rest from South Carolina. It was as able to get enough into the region without having to get into the Charleston or Columbia metropolitan areas, which was great. Mike McIntyre would be a strong candidate here for the Democrats if he was interested in jumping back into politics. Congressman Tom Rice from Myrtle Beach, SC would have a solid base of support too as a Republican.

Region: Central Piedmont (Pink)
Largest City: Charlotte, NC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Andrew Jackson
PVI: R+7

Obama 2012: 43.8%
Romney 2012: 54.8%

Obama 2008: 45.1%
McCain 2008: 53.9%

Region Swing: 2.3% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.1% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
North Carolina: 87%
South Carolina 13%

Region Comment
This region combines the Charlotte metropolitan area and a portion of Western North Carolina that was needed to get this region to the necessary population. Thom Tillis has this region if he wants it.

Region: Southern Appalachia (Blue)
Largest City: Knoxville, TN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Andrew Johnson
PVI: R+17

Obama 2012: 33.4%
Romney 2012: 64.8%

Obama 2008: 36.0%
McCain 2008: 62.5%

Region Swing: 5.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.6% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Georgia: 5%
North Carolina: 20%
Tennessee: 73%
Virginia: 3%

Region Comment
The goal for this region was to combine what was left with Eastern Tennessee. This included adding parts of the Bristol and Chattanooga metro areas that go into Virginia and Georgia respectively. Bob Corker would probably be Senator from this region.   

My thought is that there has to be some county crossings. For example one in LAC from San Fernando to south Central LA. One with the El Monte area linked to Norwalk and then to Santa Ana. Then one built from San Bernardino and Riverside, but I don't know if I can do it without Imperial. If my link allows I'll see what I can build.

Region: Cumberland & Plaines (Green)
Largest City: Nashville, TN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President James K. Polk
PVI: R+12

Obama 2012: 38.0%
Romney 2012: 60.4%

Obama 2008: 41.10%
McCain 2008: 57.5%

Region Swing: 6.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.6% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Kentucky: 5%
Tennessee: 95%

Region Comment
The original objective of this region was for it to be Central Tennessee and Western Tennessee (minus Shelby County, which was always going to be added to a Mississippi Delta region). I was forced to add the Jackson Purchase area of Kentucky to this region in order to get the Bluegrass Country region under the maximum amount allowed. This would be Lamar Alexander's region.

Region: Congaree Swamps (Orange)
Largest City: Columbia, SC
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Vice President John C Calhoun
PVI: R+8

Obama 2012: 43.4%
Romney 2012: 55.1%

Obama 2008: 44.1%
McCain 2008: 54.6%

Region Swing: 1.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
South Carolina: 100%

Region Comment
When I first drew this area I wanted to have what was left of South Carolina split in two. The Charleston and Columbia metropolitan areas combined with the Augusta and Savannah metropolitan areas of Georgia, while the Northwest metros of Greenville and Spartanburg would join with the Northeast counties in Georgia and maybe the Atlanta suburbs. This did not work as there was too many people in Northwest South Carolina and Northern Georgia for one region, but not enough for two. So in the end I essentially kept what was left of South Carolina together. The Hilton Head area had to be added to a Georgia centric region, but this makes sense do to their economic connections with Savannah, GA. Both Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott are from this region, but imagine that Graham would be the current Senator.

Region: ATL (Purple)
Largest City: Atlanta, GA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King J.
PVI: D+14

Obama 2012: 65.5%
Romney 2012: 32.9%

Obama 2008: 66.4%
McCain 2008: 33.0%

Region Swing: 0.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.7% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Georgia: 100%

Region Comment
The goal here was to create an African-American opportunity region, but unfortunately there are not enough African-Americans to have it over 50% VAP. There are however enough Asian and Hispanics that are of voting age that it is very possible to create a minority-majority collation region that would elect an African American to Congress. Congressman John Lewis would be my choice to run from this region.

I should probably at this point discuss how I got the Obama-Romney numbers for areas where I had to split the counties. For Essex County, MA, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Cobb County, GA, Fulton County, GA and Gwinnett County, GA I was able to find ward/precinct maps that matched the lines in DRA and I was able to find the corresponding 2012 data. Unfortunately do to either map changes or huge burden presented by the sheer size of the counties, I had to make estimates for Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, New York County, NY, Queens County, NY, Cook County, IL, Harris County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Maricopa County, AZ and Los Angeles County, CA. The estimates were done by applying the total county swing to each part of the county. I know this isn't a perfect method, but I imagine it is close and that the percentages wouldn't be off by much. 

Region: Southern Piedmont (Beige)
Largest City: Sandy Springs, GA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Speaker Of The House Newt Gingrich
PVI: R+23

Obama 2012: 27.2%
Romney 2012: 71.3%

Obama 2008: 30.5%
McCain 2008: 68.3%

Region Swing: 6.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.8% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Georgia: 100%

Region Comment
This region was drawn to be the non-minority Atlanta suburban region. There was not enough people purely in the outer Atlanta metropolitan area counties, so counties to the north and west of the metropolitan area had to be added to this region. Johnny Isakson is from suburban Marietta, so he would in all likelihood be the Senator for this region.

Region: Southern Coastal Plain (Yellow)
Largest City: Augusta, GA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Jimmy Carter
PVI: R+6

Obama 2012: 45.1%
Romney 2012: 53.7%

Obama 2008: 45.9%
McCain 2008: 52.9%

Region Swing: 1.6% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.8% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Georgia: 94%
South Carolina: 6%

Region Comment
My original hope for this district was that it could be the remainder of the Georgia, plus the two counties that was left over from South Carolina. Unfortunately there was about 15% more than allowed in Georgia, so I had to give a good chuck of deep Southern Georgia to a Northern Florida/Jacksonville metropolitan region. Former Republican Congressman Jack Kingston lives this region, formally represented a significant portion of it, and won a lot of it in his primary against Perdue. For the Democrats it would be fun to see how John Barrow would do here now that he's not in the House anymore.

As I continue to look at CA between hangs of DRA, I conclude that there should be two 60+ HVAP districts in LAC where one connects to OC with Anaheim/Santa Ana. The best I could do with SB and Riverside was to add Pomona then stretch it all the way to Imperial then back along the border to SW SD county. That only gets to 58% HVAP, so 60+ isn't plausible there.

Other observations of CA. CA is just barely over 12 districts. SoCal minus Kern and Imperial is just right for 7 districts. Kern plus the north is almost exactly 5 districts. So keep Imperial with Arizona, but I'm not sure the Riverside chop follows your rules.

Region: First & Nature Coasts (Cyan)
Largest City: Jacksonville, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: A. Philip Randolph
PVI: R+8

Obama 2012: 42.7%
Romney 2012: 56.0%

Obama 2008: 44.3%
McCain 2008: 54.6%

Region Swing: 3.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.4% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 84%
Georgia: 16%

Region Comment
I drew this region after I drew all of the other regions south of it in Florida. Was pleased that I was able use the Apalachicola River as the western boundary, which was the old boundary line between East and West Florida. Plus I had to had 16% from South Georgia so this region could reach the necessary minimum population and the South Georgia region could be under the minimum. David Perdue lives in this region, but I imagine that someone from the Jacksonville area would represent this region. Someone like Congressman Ron DeSantis who is currently running to replace Marco Rubio.

I really don't know yet what I am going to do with Southern California. I like the fact that Orange and San Diego counties have exactly enough for each to be their own region and I don't think I want to mess with that. I should have noted with my rules that no one rule is more important than the other and I should have noted that minority-majority collation regions, like the South Central Black/Hispanic and the Eastern LA County Asian/Hispanic regions, are acceptable. I feel like due to the sheer size of these regions, having minority collations would be necessary and probably allowable. My fear with making your proposed changes is that it would really mess up and dramatically alter the rest of the regions in the Southwest, especially in Arizona, Nevada and Utah. 

Region: Everglades & Southern Gold Coast (Blue)
Largest City: Miami, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Ernest Hemmingway
PVI: D+4

Obama 2012: 57.2%
Romney 2012: 42.2%

Obama 2008: 54.8%
McCain 2008: 44.6%

Region Swing: 4.9% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 8.3% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
My main objective for Florida this time around was to keep all of the counties whole. I was able to do that by putting Miami Dade County with some of the Southwestern Florida counties. This would still be a majority Hispanic region. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart would both be strong candidates for the Republicans, while this would also be a good spot for former Congressman, and Cuban Democrat, Joe Garcia.

Region: Northern Gold Coast (Blue)
Largest City: Fort Lauderdale, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Philip Don Estridge
PVI: D+12

Obama 2012: 63.1%
Romney 2012: 36.2%

Obama 2008: 64.4%
McCain 2008: 35.0%

Region Swing: 2.4% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.0% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
By combing parts of Southwestern Florida with Miami Dade, I was able to create a region with just Broward and Palm Beach County. Say hello to Senator Debbie Wasserman-Schultz.

Region: Tampa Bay (Brown)
Largest City: Tampa, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Odet Philipe
PVI: R+1

Obama 2012: 50.1%
Romney 2012: 48.6%

Obama 2008: 51.2%
McCain 2008: 47.5%

Region Swing: 2.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
This district was originally drawn with Citrus and Levy counties. I wanted to avoid having to put Manatee or Sarasota counties in this region. I was eventually forced to put Manatee county in this region because of population issues in the not so pretty orange region. Volusia County has 16% of the population needed for region and when Manatee County is in the orange region adding Volusia County puts it over the maximum population allowed and taking it out drops it below the minimum. Charlie Crist won this district in 2014 for Governor, so he'd probably win this region if he wanted another stab at the Senate. Congressmen Gus Bilirakis and David Jolly would be good candidates for the Republicans.

Forgot to repost the map:

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Region: Central Highlands (Purple)
Largest City: Orlando, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Zora Neale Hurston
PVI: R+2

Obama 2012: 49.7%
Romney 2012: 49.1%

Obama 2008: 50.7%
McCain 2008: 48.3%

Region Swing: 1.9% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.5% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
This is the Orlando metropolitan area region. The metro area on its own does not have enough people for one region, so I added other Central Florida counties such as Lake, Osceola and Sumter counties. Bill Nelson lives in this region and during his last election he won all but two counties in this region. This would be his Senate seat.

Region: Cultural, Space & Treasure Coasts (Orange)
Largest City: Port St. Lucie, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Astronaut Guss Grissom
PVI: R+6

Obama 2012: 44.2%
Romney 2012: 54.6%

Obama 2008: 47.1%
McCain 2008: 51.8%

Region Swing: 5.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.3% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
Unfortunately this region had to be the "extras" region as it takes in counties that did not or could not fit into the Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa or Orlando regions. Patrick Murphy lives close to here and represents a portion of this region, but I think this would be a bit too difficult of terrain for him. More likely than not this region would be represented by a Republican like Tom Rooney or Bill Posey.

Rules might be equivalent, but the VRA must take priority. Coalition districts don't count for that purpose unless it's clear that the Latinos can outvote the other minorities to get their candidate of choice, which historically has not been the case. I think I have convinced myself that a third CD in SoCal for a Latino isn't practical, so you can leave SD intact and Imperial with Arizona. However, OC is in the same UCC as LAC, so it is reasonable to chop it to get a second solid Latino district.

I'll look into it, part of the reason I'm so hesitant to make the change is how slow my DRA is, lol!

I'm working on a DRA pic of SoCal with two solid Latino districts in LAC+OC.

Meanwhile, removing the populations of Imperial, Inyo, Mono, and Alpine leaves CA with enough population for exactly 12 districts. The seven northern counties are an additional 440 K removed from CA, plus whatever is removed from Riverside. That means all the CA districts are depopulated in your plan by 1% to 2% on average. I presume there are other overpopulated districts that could give up population. Why depopulate CA so much?

It would be great to see what you can come up with for SoCal, its taking me hours just to draw a single district. I should note that the orange region with San Francisco and the northern Bay area includes Hawaii. I wanted to connect Hawaii with a mainland region could be majority Asian/Pacific Islander. Alaska is easy to connect to the mainland because there are some similarities with the Interior West, but its not as easy with Hawaii and it needs to go somewhere.

Hawaii explains a lot. Did you consider attaching it to LAC? HI would fit very nicely with the non-Latino areas along the west coast of LAC including Hollywood, Santa Monica, Torrance, and Palos Verde, an area that includes LAX. BTW, how much are you moving from Riverside to Arizona?

456,795

And I did consider attaching it to LAC, other than wishing that the Asian areas around Pasadena were closer to the ocean.

I got DRA up long enough to put together a map for LA county. The two Latino CDs are both 62% HVAP and should be enough to comply with the VRA. The teal part from LAC can either connect to Ventura, SB, and SLO as here, or to Hawaii.

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BTW, if the lime area includes all of Riverside and Imperial the HVAP rises over 48% and it becomes a Latino crossover district. I know that shorts your southern Arizona, but have you considered using the original form of AZ that included Clark NV and NM? That could be divided into three districts after the eastern part of NM was removed. The Reno area could then join with northern CA. I can draw it, if you are interested.

Sure, let me see it.

Region: Southwest Appalachia (Brown)
Largest City: Birmingham, AL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Helen Keller
PVI: R+16

Obama 2012: 35.3%
Romney 2012: 63.5%

Obama 2008: 35.7%
McCain 2008: 63.2%

Region Swing: 0.8% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.6% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Alabama: 100%

Region Comment
The objective for this region was for it to be essentially all of Alabama north of the Birmingham metropolitan area. This includes the Huntsville and Tuscaloosa areas, but not the Auburn or Montgomery metros. Richard Shelby is from this region and would represent this region in the Senate.

Region: Black Belt & Pines (Pink)
Largest City: Montgomery, AL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Rosa Parks
PVI: R+11

Obama 2012: 41.3%
Romney 2012: 57.9%

Obama 2008: 40.9%
McCain 2008: 58.3%

Region Swing: 0.9% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 4.3% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Alabama: 40%
Mississippi: 60%

Region Comment
The goal of this region was to combine what was left of Alabama and Mississippi after the creation of the Gulf Coast, Mississippi Delta, and Northern Alabama regions. Luckily there was exactly enough people here for a region. Thad Cochran lives in Hinds County, Mississippi which is in the Mississippi Delta region, but I could see him moving to this one and winning this region with no issue. Rodger Wicker is also from this region and he would also easily win here.

Region: Central Gulf Coast (Red)
Largest City: Mobile, AL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Jean Lafitte
PVI: R+21

Obama 2012: 30.5%
Romney 2012: 67.9%

Obama 2008: 30.8%
McCain 2008: 67.8%

Region Swing: 0.4% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 3.0% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Alabama: 18%
Florida: 30%
Louisiana: 37%
Mississippi: 14%

Region Comment
My thoughts when creating this region was to essentially copy the boundary lines for old West Florida. This included what was left of the Florida panhandle west of the Apalachicola River, the gulf counties in both Alabama and Mississippi, and most of the New Orleans suburbs. Jeff Sessions and David Vitter both live in this region. Bill Cassidy lives in the Mississippi Delta region, but represented a good portion of the Louisiana portion of this region when he was in the House.

Region: Mississippi Delta (Orange)
Largest City: Memphis, TN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: B.B. King
PVI: D+10

Obama 2012: 61.9%
Romney 2012: 36.6%

Obama 2008: 61.0%
McCain 2008: 38.1%

Region Swing: 2.4% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 5.8% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Arkansas: 6%
Louisiana: 41%
Mississippi: 22%
Tennessee: 31%

Region Comment
The objective of this region was to create an African American opportunity region. While I don't think that African Americans make up a majority of this region (I'm going to have to double check), they do make up a plurality and they would clearly have the majority in a Democratic primary. Cedric Richmond from New Orleans, LA and Bennie Thompson from Jackson, MS would both be strong candidates for this region.

Region: Acadiana & Timberlands (Blue)
Largest City: Shreveport, LA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Senator Huey Long
PVI: R+13

Obama 2012: 38.5%
Romney 2012: 60.2%

Obama 2008: 38.9%
McCain 2008: 59.3%

Region Swing: 1.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Arkansas: 66%
Louisiana: 34%

Region Comment
The goal of this region was to add what was left of Louisiana with Southern Arkansas. Unfortunately where were parts of Southern Arkansas that I had to leave out due to population. This included the Texarkana metropolitan counties in Arkansas and Garland County (Hot Springs), AR. Charles Boustany and John Fleming would both be strong choices for Louisiana Republicans, while there are not any strong Arkansas Republicans for this seat. Mike Ross would probably be the best chance for a Democrat here, but after 2014 he would have little to no chance of winning.

Region: Ozarks (Brown)
Largest City: Springfield, MO
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Bill Clinton
PVI: R+20

Obama 2012: 29.9%
Romney 2012: 66.4%

Obama 2008: 34.5%
McCain 2008: 63.4%

Region Swing: 7.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 4.1% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Arkansas: 49%
Missouri: 51%

Region Comment
This takes what is left of Southern Missouri after the creation of St. Louis and Kansas City regions, in addition to Northern Arkansas. Senators Roy Blunt, John Boozman, and Tom Cotton are all from this region. They would all be strong candidates to represent this region.

Done with the South. For the purposes of how I've gone about drawing these districts, Oklahoma and Texas are in the West. The Dakotas, Eastern Kansas and Nebraska are in the Midwest. I figure this would be a good time to post the map again before jumping into Ohio and the Midwest. I also have made the changes to Texas from my conversations with Muon.

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Region: Western Reserve (Blue)
Largest City: Cleveland, OH
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President James A. Garfield
PVI: D+7

Obama 2012: 58.8%
Romney 2012: 39.6%

Obama 2008: 59.5%
McCain 2008: 38.8%

Region Swing: 1.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.9% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Ohio: 100%

Region Comment
This region was drawn to include the Cleveland and Akron metropolitan areas. It needed one other county to get to the minimum population and originally I wanted to have Ashtabula County, OH in this region instead of Stark County (Canton), OH. But that did not provide enough population and adding both took it over the maximum population, so I just included Stark County, OH. Senator Sherrod Brown would represent this region in the Senate. Dave Joyce would be the Republicans best candidate to run here too.

Thanks to rpryor03 for giving me suggestions for candidates for the Ohio regions. Anyone else who wants to give me a suggestion should just shoot me a PM

Region: Miami River Valley (Yellow)
Largest City: Cincinnati, OH
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Ulysses S. Grant
PVI: R+9

Obama 2012: 42.4%
Romney 2012: 55.9%

Obama 2008: 43.9%
McCain 2008: 54.9%

Region Swing: 2.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.9% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Indiana: 5%
Kentucky: 14%
Ohio: 81%

Region Comment
This region is designed to be the Cincinnati metropolitan area. This area did not have enough people so I added a few counties in Indiana and Kentucky to make the region look better and I added a majority of the Dayton metropolitan area. Senator Rob Portman is from this region and would represent this region in the Senate. PG Sittenfield has senatorial ambitions and is from this region, but I cannot imagine him beating Portman here.

If you're looking for a district that connects Asian areas of Northern California with Hawaii, you'd be much better served going south from San Francisco into Santa Clara County. I'm not sure if that's feasible, but there aren't an inordinate number of Asians in the North Bay.

Region: Allegheny Plateau & Till Plains (Purple)
Largest City: Columbus, OH
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Warren G. Harding
PVI: R+2

Obama 2012: 50.2%
Romney 2012: 47.9%

Obama 2008: 49.8%
McCain 2008: 48.3%

Region Swing: 0.8% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 4.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Ohio: 100%

Region Comment
The final two Ohio regions were designed with the hopes that I could keep both entirely in the state and I was able to do this. I also wanted to keep the Columbus metropolitan area together for this particular region and combine it with most of the Appalachian region in Ohio. Interesting fact is Obama won this region in 2012 with only Athens and Franklin County. Personally I feel like former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland would be the favorite here as he was also popular in the Appalachian region which is traditionally Democratic, the southern part of the region swung to Obama in 2012, and Columbus is growing like crazy while swinging to the Democrats. Congressman Steve Stivers would be the strongest candidates for the Republicans for this region.

I'll look into that when I get DRA access tonight when I get home. Figuring out what to do for Hawaii for this project is always really annoying, especially compared to Alaska which is relatively easy.

Why is that?

Region: Lake Eire Shoreline (Orange)
Largest City: Toledo, OH
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Rutherford B. Hayes
PVI: R+4

Obama 2012: 47.4%
Romney 2012: 50.5%

Obama 2008: 49.2%
McCain 2008: 48.6%

Region Swing: 3.6% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.2% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Ohio: 100%

Region Comment
This region is everything that was left in Ohio, north and to the west of the Columbus metropolitan area. This would be a relatively competitive region, with the Republicans holding the advantage, so my guess would be that Congressman Jim Jordan would be the Senator from this region. Congressman Tim Ryan would be the best candidate for the Democrats and he'd have a reasonable chance of winning.

Region: Ohio River Lowlands (Beige)
Largest City: Indianapolis, IN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Benjamin Harrison
PVI: R+6

Obama 2012: 43.3%
Romney 2012: 54.4%

Obama 2008: 49.0%
McCain 2008: 48.2%

Region Swing: 11.9% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 8.5% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Indiana: 99%
Kentucky: 1%

Region Comment
The objective for this region was to be the Indianapolis metropolitan area and Indiana south of the Capital Region. I also added Henderson County, IN which is part of the Evansville UCC. Notice the heavy swing and trend for this region, so the PVI in reality is probably closer to around R+9. State Senator James Merritt is running for the currently open Senate seat in Indiana and he lives in this district. Other strong republicans would include Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard and Congressman Todd Young. Former Senator Evan Bayh would of course be the best choice for the Democrats in this region.

Region: Wabash River Valley (Pink)
Largest City: Fort Wayne, IN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President William Henry Harrison
PVI: R+5

Obama 2012: 43.0%
Romney 2012: 55.2%

Obama 2008: 50.1%
McCain 2008: 47.4%

Region Swing: 14.9% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 11.5% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Indiana: 69%
Michigan: 31%

Region Comment
The goal for this region was to add what was left of Indiana (minus the counties in the Northwest that are part of the Chicago UCC) and the first tow rows of counties in Southwest Michigan. I wanted the part of Michigan in this region to also avoid the Detroit, Grand Rapids, and Lansing metropolitan areas as well. Like the previous Indiana region, don't let the PVI fool you as it is probably closer to around R+7. Senator Joe Donnelly is from this region, but Richard Mourdock is from the Southern Indiana region so I don't think Donnelly would have been able to win this region without running against Mourdock. Senator Dan Coats is also from this region, but he is retiring. Congressmen Todd Rokita and Todd Young, both of Indiana, would be strong candidates for Republicans. Congressmen Fred Upton and Tim Walberg, both from Michigan, would also be good Republican choices.

Region: Detroit & St. Clair River Valleys (Green)
Largest City: Detroit, MI
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Secretary of State Lewis Cass
PVI: D+12

Obama 2012: 63.3%
Romney 2012: 35.5%

Obama 2008: 65.1%
McCain 2008: 33.2%

Region Swing: 4.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.8% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Michigan: 100%

Region Comment
The Detroit metropolitan area is pretty tricking because Macomb, Oakland, and Wayne counties are all very large and too big. As such I had to split the area into east and west, with the western counties going with the Ann Arbor, Flint and Lansing metropolitan areas. Senator Gary Peters represented a good portion of this region when he served in the house, but he lives in Oakland County. To prevent a primary with Senator Debbie Stabenow, who is from Lansing and has seniority, he could move to Macomb County and easily win this Senate seat.

The computer industry is based in the Santa Clara Valley.

Region: Lake Huron Peninsula (Cyan)
Largest City: Lansing, MI
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Governor George Romney
PVI: D+5

Obama 2012: 55.3%
Romney 2012: 43.6%

Obama 2008: 58.2%
McCain 2008: 40.1%

Region Swing: 6.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 3.1% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Michigan: 100%

Region Comment
The goal for this district was to add the western part of the Detroit metropolitan area to the Ann Arbor, Flint, and Lansing metropolitan areas. I also originally planned to ad the Tri-Cities area as well, but this would have put the region over the population maximum. This would be Senator Debbie Stabenow's region.

Region: Eastern Lake Michigan Shoreline (Yellow)
Largest City: Grand Rapids
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Gerald Ford
PVI: R+5

Obama 2012: 44.6%
Romney 2012: 53.6%

Obama 2008: 49.6%
McCain 2008: 50.6%

Region Swing: 8.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 4.6% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Michigan: 88%
Wisconsin: 12%

Region Comment
For this regions I took what was left of Michigan and then added the Northwoods area of Wisconsin, including Marathon County. This is probably a point or two more Republican than the PVI shows as Obama really over performed here in 2008. Terri Lynn Land, who ran in 2014 for the Michigan Senate Seat, would probably win in this region if she wanted it. Democrats have almost no bench in this region.

Region: Western Lake Michigan Shoreline (Brown)
Largest City: Milwaukee, WI
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Chief Justice William Rehnquist
PVI: R+1

Obama 2012: 49.7%
Romney 2012: 49.2%

Obama 2008: 52.8%
McCain 2008: 45.8%

Region Swing: 6.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 3.1% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Wisconsin: 100%

Region Comment
This region is the heavily German parts of Wisconsin, including the Milwaukee, Green Bay and Appleton metropolitan areas. However, Kenosha County is with the 3 Chicago metropolitan regions. This would be a competitive region during Presidential years, but would lean Republican during midterm years. Senator Ron Johnson would start off with an advantage here for the Republicans, while Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson would probably be the best bet for Democrats. This would have been Herb Kohl's seat before he retired and he would have been strong here.

Region: Twin Cities (Green)
Largest City: Minneapolis, MN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Vice President Hubert Humphrey
PVI: D+5

Obama 2012: 56.1%
Romney 2012: 41.6%

Obama 2008: 57.2%
McCain 2008: 40.9%

Region Swing: 1.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.7% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Minnesota: 100%

Region Comment
All of the counties in this region are apart of the Minneapolis-St. Paul UCC. Sherburne County, MN is the only UCC county not in this region and I removed it from this region because I did not want to split up the city of St. Cloud, MN. Senators Amy Klobuchar and Al Franken are from this region and either one would be the Senator form this region. Congressmen Joe Kline and Erik Paulsen would both be good Republican candidates for this region, but they would definitely start of as underdogs.

Region: Northern Driftless Area & Iron Range (Orange)
Largest City: Madison, WI
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Senator Robert M. La Follette
PVI: D+6

Obama 2012: 56.7%
Romney 2012: 41.4%

Obama 2008: 59.1%
McCain 2008: 38.9%

Region Swing: 5.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.6% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Minnesota: 36%
Wisconsin: 64%

Region Comment
My objective for this region was to combine what was left in Wisconsin, the western part of the state, and combine it with the remaining parts of Eastern Minnesota. Senator Tammy Bladwin would be very strong in this region, but in all likelihood Russ Feingold would have never lost and would still be the Senator here. Former Governor Tommy Thompson is from this region and probably the best choice for Republicans. Yet he would in all likelihood do worse than he did in 2012 against either Baldwin or Feingold in this region.

Region: Northern Great Plaines (Pink)
Largest City: Sioux Falls, SD
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Chief Sitting Bull
PVI: R+9

Obama 2012: 40.7%
Romney 2012: 56.9%

Obama 2008: 44.8%
McCain 2008: 53.0%

Region Swing: 7.9% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 4.5% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Iowa: 11%
Minnesota: 41%
North Dakota: 23%
South Dakota: 31%

Region Comment
My goal for this region was to add what was left in Western Minnesota with the Dakotas. Unfortunately this left the region about 5% from the minimum population so I added the Northwestern corner of Iowa. Four current United States Senators live here, but with his seniority I would imagine that John Thune would be the favorite for this region. Senator Heidi Heitkamp would be the strongest candidate for the Democrats in what would be a very difficult region for them.

Region: The Windy City (Cyan)
Largest City: Chicago, IL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Barack Obama
PVI: D+33

Obama 2012: 83.2%
Romney 2012: 14.5%

Obama 2008: 85.8%
McCain 2008: 13.4%

Region Swing: 3.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.3% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Illinois: 100%

Region Comment
The goal for this region was to draw a minority-majority region exclusively in Cook County, IL. This region would in all likelihood elect an American-American to the Senate. Congresswoman Robin Kelly, who is considering a run against Senator Kirk in 2016, would be an excellent candidate for this region. There is really no Republican bench for this region.

Region: Northshore (Beige)
Largest City: Chicago, IL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Jane Adams
PVI: D+10

Obama 2012: 59.9%
Romney 2012: 63.4%

Obama 2008: 63.4%
McCain 2008: 35.2%

Region Swing: 7.3% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 3.9% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Illinois: 94%
Wisconsin: 6%

Region Comment
I drew this region to include the remainder of the northern part of Cook County and the northern suburban counties of Kenosha, Lake and McHenry. Senator Mark Kirk is from this region, but his base of Lake County and McHenry only makes up 33% of this region and there is a lot of territory here that would be hostile to him. It would probably be in his best interest to move into the purple southern and western Chicago suburban region, as he would have much better chances in this region. Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth, who is running against Senator Kirk in 2016, lives in this region and would be a very strong candidate.

Region: Chicagoland (Red)
Largest City: Aurora, IL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Speaker Of The House Dennis Hastert
PVI: D+3

Obama 2012: 52.7%
Romney 2012: 45.9%

Obama 2008: 56.4%
McCain 2008: 42.3%

Region Swing: 7.4% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 4.0% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Illinois: 79%
Indiana: 21%

Region Comment
The goal for this region was to use as much of the remaining Chicago UCC as possible in addition to what was left of Southwestern Cook County. I was able to add the remainder of the UCC except for DeKalb, Grundy, and Kendall Counties. Republican Senator Mark Kirk would be a very strong candidate for this region if he is willing to move. Otherwise Congressman Peter Roskam would be a very strong candidate for the Republicans. Congressman Bill Foster would be the best choice for the Democrats as he currently represents many of the large cities in this region including Aurora, Joliet, and Naperville. Also don't let the PVI fool you, this would region would be a Lean R in most years, even though the Indiana counties would be a positive boost for the for the Democrats.

Region: Southern Driftless Area & Western Corn Belt (Blue)
Largest City: Des Moines, IA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Herbert Hoover
PVI: D+3

Obama 2012: 53.7%
Romney 2012: 44.5%

Obama 2008: 55.5%
McCain 2008: 42.8%

Region Swing: 3.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.1% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Illinois: 14%
Iowa: 86%

Region Comment
After taking out the Northwestern part of Iowa, it needed to gain at least 6% more in population to get over the minimum. I got this by adding essentially a cleaner version of the 17th Illinois Congressional district. Chuck Grassley would probably represent this region and would be the best candidate for the Republicans. Congressman David Loebsack, Congresswoman Cheri Bustos, USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack, former First Lady of Iowa Christie Vilsack, and former Governor Chet Culver would all be strong candidates for the Democrats.

Region: Gateway To The West (Yellow)
Largest City: St. Louis, MO
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Mark Twain
PVI: D+2

Obama 2012: 51.7%
Romney 2012: 47.2%

Obama 2008: 56.5%
McCain 2008: 42.2%

Region Swing: 9.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 6.3% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Illinois: 28%
Missouri: 72%

Region Comment
This region was designed to include all of the St. Louis Metropolitan area, plus a few counties that surround it in both Illinois and Missouri that get it to the desired population. This seat leans Democratic, but it swung heavily to the Republicans in 2012. Democrats best bet would be former Congressman Russ Carnahan and Congresswoman Ann Wagner would be the best candidate for the Republicans.

Here is the map again for this page:

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Region: Eastern Corn Belt & Little Egypt (Purple)
Largest City: Rockford, IL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Abraham Lincoln
PVI: R+5

Obama 2012: 44.3%
Romney 2012: 56.4%

Obama 2008: 49.0%
McCain 2008: 49.0%

Region Swing: 12.1% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 8.7% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Illinois: 100%

Region Comment
I was very lucky that after drawing the 3 Chicago regions, the St. Louis region, and the Iowa region that the remainder of Illinois was just barely under the maximum population allowed for a region. Senator Dick Durbin lives in this region and while he would have been successful in past years when the downstate area was more Democratic, this region has really swung against the Democratic Party. He would be the Democrats best bet for this region, but he would still in all likelihood lose. The best choice for the Republicans would be Congressman Rodney Davis as he's been successfully representing an even PVI seat in Congress for the past 2 years. He would do extremely well in this region.

Here's a more complete picture of how I would do SoCal. Overall the seven colored districts are within 40 K of the ideal population. There are two solid Latino VRA districts and one opportunity district.

district 6 (3078K): WVAP 56.6%, HVAP 23.8%, AVAP 11.3%; pres 08: D 66.9%, gov 10: D 59.6%.
district 7 (3057K): WVAP 46.9%, HVAP 27.9%, AVAP 16.6%; pres 08: D 56.4%, gov 10: D 50.7%.
district 8 (3088K): WVAP 11.9%, BVAP 13.9%, HVAP 62.1%, AVAP 10.5%; pres 08: D 82.7%, gov 10: D 81.5%.
district 9 (3070K): WVAP 18.4%, HVAP 62.0%, AVAP 14.8%; pres 08: D 64.8%, gov 10: D 62.0%.
district 10 (3109K): WVAP 53.8%, HVAP 21.1%, AVAP 19.2%; pres 08: D 49.3%, gov 10: D 40.1%.
district 11 (3072K): WVAP 35.3%, HVAP 49.5%; pres 08: D 57.1%, gov 10: D 52.7%.
district 12 (3095K): WVAP 52.9%, HVAP 27.9%, AVAP 11.6%; pres 08: D 55.1%, gov 10: D 46.9%.

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You do realize Claire McCaskill lives in the region, right?

She moved there from Kansas City? She represented Kansas City in the State House and was the Jackson County Prosecutor. So I figured she was from that part of the state.

I'm going to try to use this as a guide and create 2 Hispanic regions. I think I am going to need to make sure the southeastern part of California is available for Arizona.

But I don't see how you can justify both a county split and a UCC chop which happened in your initial map there with Riverside. You really don't do anything like that anywhere else on your map. I can see moving Imperial to AZ and adding San Luis Obispo to SoCal which keeps the population within limits. It does mean that the Inland Empire district would lose some opportunity for Latinos.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/claire-mccaskill-s-wealth-comes-into-focus/article_0e8be6a2-99ad-59c0-9240-54767ef29f5a.html (http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/claire-mccaskill-s-wealth-comes-into-focus/article_0e8be6a2-99ad-59c0-9240-54767ef29f5a.html)

At some point, probably after meeting her husband, she moved to Kirkwood, a cable car suburb of St. Louis.

If I keep it the way you have it, it really messes up the rest of the Southwest and Rocky Mountain areas. I would probably have to split up Nevada and or Utah. When I have some time I'll try to incorporate some of your ideas, while trying to keep Nevada and Utah together. I definitely want to keep the 2 Hispanic regions.

Thank you for that information! It is so hard to find where Senators live in their home states.

I think you are too attached to the unity of UT and NV. Yes, you should try to keep states intact, but not at the expense of chopping a UCC county in a state elsewhere. I also think that you are too wedded to putting all the Mormon areas together. I could just as well make the case for reuniting the historic Deseret area for the Mormons which would link all of NV (minus Clark) with UT.

For example, ID+WY+MT are a perfect match for one district, so why not preserve those states as a group. AK can arguably go with coastal WA since there are both flights and ferries between those points, whereas there aren't many if any from ID/MT to AK.

To follow up, here's one way I would embed a variant of my SoCal in the western part of the plan. I did shift Imperial to AZ but split no counties other than those in the LA area (6 districts) and Phoenix (2 districts). Except for the VRA districts, I minimized UCC splits and tried to minimize state line crossings. HI is with SF and AK is with Tacoma.

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This is doable. I might make some changes on the edges, but I like this. What did you do with the Inland Empire district after moving it out of Imperial County, CA?

I added most of Rancho Cucamonga to the IE district to replace Imperial. The effect was to move the VAP to 47.3%. Then the Encino area of LA was shifted from the Coastal district to the Antelope Valley district.

Could I see an updated picture of the area, the population of each district, and the vote totals (for Obama and McCain, unfortunately I don't think DRA has the other vote, which I'll have to estimate). I need that information to figure out 2012 estimates and the PVI. Thanks for you help Moun!

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I did a little more population balancing. The new line between 6 and 7 is Mulholland Dr, and between 7 and 11 west of San Bernardino is I-15 and I-210.

district 6 (3075K): WVAP 56.9%, HVAP 24.0%, AVAP 11.0%; pres 08: D 65.0%, gov 10: D 57.8%.
district 7 (3138K): WVAP 49.3%, HVAP 26.2%, AVAP 16.0%; pres 08: D 58.2%, gov 10: D 52.6%.
district 8 (3088K): WVAP 11.9%, BVAP 13.9%, HVAP 62.1%, AVAP 10.5%; pres 08: D 82.7%, gov 10: D 81.5%.
district 9 (3075K): WVAP 18.4%, HVAP 62.0%, AVAP 14.8%; pres 08: D 64.8%, gov 10: D 62.0%.
district 10 (3109K): WVAP 53.8%, HVAP 21.1%, AVAP 19.2%; pres 08: D 49.3%, gov 10: D 40.1%.
district 11 (3086K): WVAP 36.9%, HVAP 47.0%; pres 08: D 56.5%, gov 10: D 51.9%.
district 12 (3095K): WVAP 52.9%, HVAP 27.9%, AVAP 11.6%; pres 08: D 55.1%, gov 10: D 46.9%.

I actually need the raw vote totals for those districts (except 12 which I can get on my own.). Thanks!

district 6: Obama 870,675; McCain 467,867
district 7: Obama 642,003; McCain 461,698
district 8: Obama 577,193; McCain 121,150
district 9: Obama 512,419; McCain 278,770
district 10: Obama 626,812; McCain 643,847
district 11: Obama 475,037; McCain 366,040

Thanks a lot!