Talk Elections

What will be the statistics of the 110th Congress?

Current Stats of 109th Congress:

Senate:

R: 55
D: 44
I:    1

House:

R: 233
D: 201
I:      1

I don't know

My Predictions:

Senate:

R: 53 (-2)
D: 47 (+3, including Jim Jeffords Seat)

House:[/b}

R: 229 (-4)
D: 205 (+4)
I:      1 (+0)

Absolute worst case scenario for the GOP in the Senate:

- GOP doesn't pick up any seats
- Dems pick up RI, PA, VA, MT, MO
- Sanders (I) - VT sits with the Dems

Republicans - 50
Democrats - 50 (including Independent Bernie Sanders)

Control stays with the GOP because of VP (Senate President) Cheney.

House:

Not sure. I don't see any major losses for either party.

Senate:

R: 52
D: 47
I:    1

House:
R:  224
D:  211

I predict GOP losses in the House, only on the level of 5 or so. In the Senate, right now this is how I see the close seats:

MN: Slight Democrat
PA: Slight Democrat
RI: Lean RINO
MO: Lean GOP
FL: Lean Democrat
MT: Slight GOP
VA: Lean GOP, if Warner runs Slight GOP
WI: Lean Democrat
NM: Lean Democrat
MI: Lean Democrat
WA: Lean Democrat

That leaves us with a Democrat pickup, so Senate 54-45-1

Unless Rossi or Dunn change their minds, you can put "Safe Democrat."

Any race that either party has a remote chance in I listed as lean.

I'm goign to say:
Senate
R-53
D-46
I-1 (Sanders)

House
R-228
D-207

Of the Senate seats up for grabs, I only see the following as mildly competitive:

Burns (R-MT): Schweitzer's in Helena, so Burns holds this.
Nelson (D-NE): Nelson should lose, but with Johanns in Washington...
Nelson (D-FL): Nelson should lose, but I don't see anyone beating him atm.
Open (DFL-MN): Who knows?
Stabenow (D-MI): Dem hold
Open (R-TN): Rep hold
Open (D-MD): Hard to say.  Leans Dem atm.
Open/Corzine (D-NJ): Republican pickup.
Chafee (R-RI): Hard to say.
Santorum (R-PA): Democratic pickujp.

And the following, given certain candidates:

Kohl (D-WI): given Tommy Thompson
Allen (R-VA): given Mark Warner
Conrad (D-ND): given Hoeven.

So I'll guess:

Senate: R 56 D 43 I 1
House:  Who knows.  Republican majority (duh).

Phil, if the GOP does that bad in the Senate, Collins will likely pull at least a Jeffords and go Independent to save her political hide when she runs for reelection in 2009 and thus give the Senate Majority Leader Reid by a 50 to 49 vote with 1 abstaining, or possibly even do a full party switch and become a Democrat.  I don't expect that happening, tho.  If the 2006 elections were held today, I'd expect at most a 2 seat change in the Senate, and despite all the sound and fury over Social Security and judicial nominations, I don't expect an issue to come up that would produce a major shift either way.

Collins? No, I don't think so.

Current House makeup is actually 232 Republicans, 202 Democrats, and 1 Independent.

As for predictions, well, it's a little early, but...

I guess the Senate will be about GOP 57, Dem 42, Ind 1. House goes 235 GOP, Dem 200.

Senate:

R: 53
D: 46
I:    1

Possible pickups in PA, MT.  Loss of NJ.  I'll say we keep the rest, but that's an incredibly optimistic prediction.

Just for fun I'll make some random numbers up for other Congresses as well: :)

2006 Senate: R 57, D 42, I 1
2006 House: R 235, D 200

2008 Senate: R 59, D 40, I 1
2008 House: R 240, D 195
2008 President: 1988-esque GOP victory

2010 Senate: R 57, D 42, I 1
2010 House: R 225, D 210

2012 Senate: R 61, D 38, I 1
2012 House: R 245, D 190
2012 President: GOP landslide

2014 Senate: R 63, D 36, I 1
2014 House: D 220, R 215

2016 Senate: R 60, D 39, I 1
2016 House: D 225, R 210
2016 President: 1988-esque Democratic victory

2018 Senate: R 64, D 35, I 1
2018 House: R 250, D 185

2020 Senate: R 65, D 34, I 1
2020 House: R 240, D 195
2020 President: Democratic landslide

That's some powerful crack.

Mkay

My prediction

R: 53
D: 46
I: 1

~

R: 223
D: 212

No independent anymore.

Like Erc, I expect a GOP pickup in the Senate.

I would expect a 3-4 loss GOP in the House.

Senate: 

Republican:  53
Democrat:    46
Independet:  1

House:

No idea.  I have'nt looked into it very much, yet.

The problem for the Democrats is, Everything is going wrong for the GOP too far away from 2006.  If this nuclear option mess, and Bush's push for SS privitization was happending closer to the 2006 election the Democrats could make out very well.  I think most of this "bad" news will be irrelevant by the 2006 midterms.  Actually the tides may turn.  We may be withdrawing troops from Iraq, more "Mission Accomplished" signs, etc... which will only help the GOP.

We will be withdrawing troops by late 2006. It's only a question of how many.

Here's how I see the 2006 Senate:

MT: Toss-up.  MT Dems seem to have it together enough to give Burns a good run.

RI: Chafee should hold this seat.  Strong Lean Republican.

NJ: Given that Corzine becomes gov.  Kean should be a strong Rep candidate.  Slight lean Republican

MN: Toss-up. Maybe a very slight lean for the Dems. Could depend on national electorate's mood.

TN: Strong lean Republican

VT: Strong lean Independent

FL: Lean Dem.  Don't see the Repub emerging to knock off Nelson

NE: Strong lean Dem.  See Florida.

PA: Lean Dem.  Casey is Santorum's nightmare candidate.  He better hope for a pro-choice 3rd party.

MD: I'll say lean Dem until the primary starts shaping up.  Mfume vs Steele is a toss-up.  Cardin vs Steele is strong lean for the Dems.  Cardin vs any other R is safe Dem

MI: Strong lean Dem.  Who's going to knock Stabenow off?

MO:  Strong lean Repub.  Talent has numbers here.

Safe for party in power except for right candidate
VA: Allen (R-I) vs Warner (D) very slight Rep lean
WV: Only if Byrd retires.
WA: Cantwell (D-I) vs Dunn (R) lean Dem
NY: Clinton (D-I) vs Guiliani (R) we can hope right?
ND: Conrad (D-I) vs Hoeven (R) toss-up
TX: If Hutch runs for Gov still strong Rep lean but open seats are unpredictible.
WI: Kohl (D-I) vs Thompson (R) slight Dem lean


For jdb only
AZ: Kyl vs Grijuvila  LOL :P

My best guess Dems gain 1 (win PA & MT, lose NJ)
Rep: 54
Dem: 45
Ind: 1

If Chafee can't hold onto RI in 2006, then it will indicate that New England will have joined the rest of the country in voting for Senators based on national rather than local politics, and have done so emphatically enough to bounce Republican incumbents with a proven trak record on the issues for the sole reason of being a national Republican.  In that atmosphere, Collins’ only hope of being re-elected in 2008 is to depart the GOP and become an Independent or a Democrat.  She probably would go the independent route since New Englanders are used to and have shown a willingness to support such candidates, and I don’t think that at the level of Maine politics that she would be a comfortable fit with the Dems.

RI, NJ, and TN are all looking much better for the Democrats than that. I'd say RI is weak lean Democrat, NJ is lean Democrat, and TN is lean Republican.