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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on May 11, 2015, 10:55:55 am



Title: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 11, 2015, 10:55:55 am
As long as the GOP field is fluid:

Tender: Perhaps you should sticky a thread on the polling board, giving instructions about entering polls?  Otherwise, no one is going to remember the thing about averaging Bush/Rubio/Walker.

Also:

If someone wants to enter a new (or old) poll into the database, please do it the way DAVE did and average the GOP numbers from Bush/Walker/Rubio and use the average of Hillary against these 3 Republicans.

If a poll only shows Hillary vs. one or two top-Republicans, then just average these and enter it to the database.

I think averaging the top-3 GOPers is the best right now to show how the GOP matches against Hillary ...

Thx.


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: IceSpear on May 11, 2015, 01:32:36 pm
Will this formula stay the same even if one or more of those candidates implode?


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 12, 2015, 01:46:02 am
Will this formula stay the same even if one or more of those candidates implode?

No, in this case we use the new TOP-3 on the RCP average:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Dave Leip on May 12, 2015, 11:46:12 am
Hi -
Is there a desire for individual polling databases in addition to the generic - i.e. Clinton-Walker, Clinton-Bush, etc.?  This is of course a lot more data entry…

Thanks,
Dave


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: King on May 12, 2015, 11:49:03 am
Hi -
Is there a desire for individual polling databases in addition to the generic - i.e. Clinton-Walker, Clinton-Bush, etc.?  This is of course a lot more data entry…

Thanks,
Dave

I think we should hold off until the GOP contenders becomes clearer (December?). It'd be a waste to do all that work on a Clinton-Walker map and then Walker completely busts and drops out in November, for example.


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 12, 2015, 12:46:11 pm
Hi -
Is there a desire for individual polling databases in addition to the generic - i.e. Clinton-Walker, Clinton-Bush, etc.?  This is of course a lot more data entry…

Thanks,
Dave

Nah, that would be too much.

Besides, pbrower already does that (even though he likes to exclude polls that show Republicans ahead):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169131.msg4597502#msg4597502

Maybe you can write him a PM and tell him to include every poll.


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: pbrower2a on May 12, 2015, 01:14:16 pm
I suggest that favorite sons (Snyder in Michigan, Kasich in Ohio, Santorum in Pennsylvania, Palin in Alaska) be recognized separately from the others if they are not understood to be national contenders.   


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Tender Branson on May 13, 2015, 09:05:23 am
Since when do 2012 election results count as polls?

It's just to fill the unpolled states on the map.


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 09, 2015, 12:09:59 am
Will this formula stay the same even if one or more of those candidates implode?

No, in this case we use the new TOP-3 on the RCP average:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

This ranking has now changed, btw.

The TOP-3 are now:

Bush
Walker
Carson

(but I guess it will soon be Bush, Walker, Trump ...)


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 09, 2015, 12:39:44 am
If Dave is serious about this "top 3 from RCP" thing (is he? or was that a Tender proposal that Dave just ran with), then he should probably say that that's what we're doing on the main polling page.  I mean, this thread is all well and good for those of us on the forum, but the audience for Dave's site extends beyond this forum.  If I went here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php

and had never been to this forum before, I wouldn't really know what the data on the map is supposed to represent.


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 09, 2015, 12:42:00 am
If Dave is serious about this "top 3 from RCP" thing (is he? or was that a Tender proposal that Dave just ran with), then he should probably say that that's what we're doing on the main polling page.  I mean, this thread is all well and good for those of us on the forum, but the audience for Dave's site extends beyond this forum.  If I went here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php

and had never been to this forum before, I wouldn't really know what the data on the map is supposed to represent.


It's the other way round: Dave set up the 2016 database and entered a poll with the top-3 at that time and I just went with it and posted the criteria here.


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Mr. Morden on July 09, 2015, 12:49:52 am
If Dave is serious about this "top 3 from RCP" thing (is he? or was that a Tender proposal that Dave just ran with), then he should probably say that that's what we're doing on the main polling page.  I mean, this thread is all well and good for those of us on the forum, but the audience for Dave's site extends beyond this forum.  If I went here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php

and had never been to this forum before, I wouldn't really know what the data on the map is supposed to represent.


It's the other way round: Dave set up the 2016 database and entered a poll with the top-3 at that time and I just went with it and posted the criteria here.

OK.  Well, my underlying point stands.  In the unlikely event that Dave is reading this, my recommendation to him would be for him to explain his methodology on that polling page.  Because as it is now, it wouldn't really make sense to someone who hasn't read this thread.


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 13, 2015, 12:55:55 pm
If Dave is serious about this "top 3 from RCP" thing (is he? or was that a Tender proposal that Dave just ran with), then he should probably say that that's what we're doing on the main polling page.  I mean, this thread is all well and good for those of us on the forum, but the audience for Dave's site extends beyond this forum.  If I went here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php

and had never been to this forum before, I wouldn't really know what the data on the map is supposed to represent.


It's the other way round: Dave set up the 2016 database and entered a poll with the top-3 at that time and I just went with it and posted the criteria here.

OK.  Well, my underlying point stands.  In the unlikely event that Dave is reading this, my recommendation to him would be for him to explain his methodology on that polling page.  Because as it is now, it wouldn't really make sense to someone who hasn't read this thread.

I agree that Dave should probably post here at some point and explain what he prefers.

Anyway, the new TOP-3 according to RCP are now Bush, Trump and Walker.

This is what we will use in the database for the next polls.


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 20, 2015, 02:50:04 pm
According to RCP, the top-3 are now Trump/Bush/Carson. Shall we include those now?

As I am THE moderator and my word is the gold standard: Yes.

(If Carson is not polled, use the one polled who's next on the RCP average)


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst on August 20, 2015, 02:51:54 pm
According to RCP, the top-3 are now Trump/Bush/Carson. Shall we include those now?

As I am THE moderator and my word is the gold standard: Yes.

(If Carson is not polled, use the one polled who's next on the RCP average)

Okay thx. So always include Clinton vs. the TOP 3 in the RCP average?


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Tender Branson on August 20, 2015, 02:55:14 pm
According to RCP, the top-3 are now Trump/Bush/Carson. Shall we include those now?

As I am THE moderator and my word is the gold standard: Yes.

(If Carson is not polled, use the one polled who's next on the RCP average)

Okay thx. So always include Clinton vs. the TOP 3 in the RCP average?

At this point it is the best option I guess.

If we average all Republicans polled against Hillary, it could inflate her margin - simply because some Republicans have a low name recognition right now and trail by bigger margins than well-known GOPers.

For example it makes no sense to average a poll that includes Lindsey Graham and where he's down 20 points to Hillary.


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Dave Leip on March 18, 2016, 09:55:23 am
Hi,
At this point, all polls should be Clinton-Trump until/unless something changes.

Thanks,
Dave

"typo" removed "not" :)


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Sorenroy on March 21, 2016, 06:34:05 am
At this point, all polls should not be Clinton-Trump until/unless something changes.

So, to those posting polls, doesn't the "should not be" mean it should still be the average of the top three candidates?


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Dave Leip on March 29, 2016, 05:19:46 pm
At this point, all polls should not be Clinton-Trump until/unless something changes.

So, to those posting polls, doesn't the "should not be" mean it should still be the average of the top three candidates?

Bad typo there.  I meant to say that we should be Trump-Clinton.
Thanks,
Dave


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: yeah_93 on March 29, 2016, 06:40:09 pm
Hi,
At this point, all polls should be Clinton-Trump until/unless something changes.

Thanks,
Dave

"typo" removed "not" :)
I agree with this.


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst on April 06, 2016, 04:30:12 pm
Hi,
At this point, all polls should be Clinton-Trump until/unless something changes.

Well, I think things have changed quite a bit. I think it'd be the best to enter the average of the Clinton vs. Trump/Cruz/Kasich numbers into the database.


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: pbrower2a on April 15, 2016, 12:15:00 pm
I'm still showing maps of matchups -- and I add (I doubt that I will add anyone anymore) possible nominees as they appear relevant or drop them as they become irrelevant (as they drop out or get defeated, as most recently Marco Rubio did). 

 


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: cloudmage on May 08, 2016, 04:48:02 pm
I created a chart on statpedia to show the results of all the General Election Polls over the last three months with the data taken from RealClear Politics. It shows up when you search for "poll".


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: / on June 24, 2016, 06:57:40 pm
Wouldn't it be interesting to have some sort of national poll tracker as well?

I know there are a lot out there already, but everything's better with AtlasTM.


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Ebsy on June 24, 2016, 07:01:01 pm
idk, I think there are enough national polling averages (RCP, NYT, 538, Huffpollster) that there isn't really a need for another one.


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: ░tmthforu94░ on July 22, 2016, 12:56:13 pm
I see we're going with the 4-way Suffolk poll in Ohio (which favors Clinton) and the 2-way WMUR poll in New Hampshire (which also coincidently favors Clinton). We need some consistency when entering polls. Either we just enter 2-way numbers or just enter 3/4-way numbers.


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: mds32 on July 22, 2016, 01:15:12 pm
I see we're going with the 4-way Suffolk poll in Ohio (which favors Clinton) and the 2-way WMUR poll in New Hampshire (which also coincidently favors Clinton). We need some consistency when entering polls. Either we just enter 2-way numbers or just enter 3/4-way numbers.

I agree. Especially after it was already put in as a TIE. I am calling you out  benconstine (D-VA).


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Likely Voter on July 26, 2016, 02:39:10 pm

I am reposting something here not directly related to the database but about making new posts about new polls.

When making a new post about a new poll, please keep headlines to 'just the facts'. So they should contain the name of the pollster, state of national, horse race number(s) or margin

For the body of the post, it should ideally contain:
- Name of Media outlet and pollster
- Identify if national or state
- Date range of poll
- All available horse race numbers (2-way, 3-way, 4-way)
- All available samples (RV, LV and Adults)
- Link to source (ideally media article and to detailed poll if available)

Also nice to have
- change since last poll (especially with more frequent polls and trackers)
- methodology and MoE
- interesting crosstabs or details (this can also be in an additional comment to OP)

 


Title: Re: NOTE: How to enter 2016 polls to the database (at the moment)
Post by: Dave Leip on October 12, 2016, 07:49:41 pm
Hi - note, I've added McMullin to the database as the independent.  the "I" box is only for his percentage.  Johnson, Stein, Castle, etc. are aggregated into "Other" for now.

Thanks,
Dave