Talk Elections

Hi,
I've enabled the 2012 General Election Presidential Prediction Script here (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016/pred.php)

Enjoy and let me know if you find any bugs.

the Primary Predictions for the Republican 2016 primary season will be available after the calendar gets nailed down.

Note you will need to be sure your atlas and forum accounts are linked for your map to be compiled.  You can link them on your myatlas page (https://uselectionatlas.org/myatlas.php)

Enjoy,
Dave

First!

I bet you to the other 2 though! I guess it was... inevitable.

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Sixth!

I've alluded to this elsewhere, but I think Clinton/Warner will lose the popular vote to Bush/Portman, but win in the EC and Mrs. Clinton will be sworn in as President in 2017. ()

Clinton/Warner 48.6% / 276 EV
Bush/Portman 49.1% / 262 EV

Eighth!

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Woo! This'll be fun. I wonder how these will change once the campaign for the general begins.

I'm pretty much doing generic Rep/Dem until after the primary season, so I won't touch it again until then, because obviously, predictions are kind of meaningless at this point

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=15515

As I've done in the past, I'll post from time to time on how stable the predictions are.

23 predictions at present.  5 new predictions could change the map as follows.

Colorado 40%D -> 50%D
Florida: 40%D -> 40%R
Hawaii: 60%D -> 70%D
Kentucky: 50%R -> 60%R
New Hampshire: tossup -> lean D
Utah: 60%R -> 70%R

Obviously it would take 5 very weird maps to cause all these changes to happen at the same time. Other than the potential change in Florida, none of these changes would cause a state to switch its predicted vote, so the overall prediction of Clinton winning isn't likely to change any time soon.

Right now, it looks like the Obama/Romney map is the most likely, but Florida seems to be moving rightward despite its demographic changes. Quinnipiac released a map showing Hillary Clinton losing big in Colorado and Iowa and narrowly in Virginia, but I'd have to see more polls to bear this out. Clinton seems strangely weak in Colorado, and I have no idea why.

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Walker/Rubio: 288 EV, 50%
Clinton/Webb: 250 EV, 48.5%

PA and VA are not called until Wednesday morning, and the result hangs in the balance.

Battleground map:
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Clinton will win Pa.

Hillary Clinton would probably carry Pennsylvania if ether Donald Trump, Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee get the Republican nomination. On the other hand, if she faced off against either Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush or John Kasich, then Pennsylvania would almost certainly be in play for the Republicans.

Once she picks a strong VP either Castro or Kaine, her polls will come up in OH, Va and CO; as well as Pa.

While I'm not very good at predictions; I predict Hillary Clinton winning a close race with little more electoral college needed to win the White House. This election's Republican nominee, who I believe will most likely be Jeb Bush, will score around or maybe a smaller amount, of electoral college as Mitt Romney in the last election.

The reason I feel Hilary Clinton has a better chance is because of multiple reasons: Small amount of Democrat candidates; which only Bernie Sanders is being talked about and having any creditability with voters, There are way too many Republican candidates! Which not only affects how voters will see the future Republican nominee, but alienate voters as to whether the future nominee is conservative enough, how he can appeal to moderate voters, etc. I feel if there was a smaller number of Republican candidates than they easily debate each other, then go after Hillary Clinton and Sanders.

If Hillary Clinton does indeed win, hopefully the Republican party will learn from their mistakes and encourage younger politicians who can help shape the future of the Republican party. 

Jeb was the wrong candidate, he was rusty and made the wrong call on Iraq, substaining Dubya's policy.

Barb, his mom was right, there were enough Bushes in WH. But, Latinos in CO, NV & NM arent going away. The sunbelt is growing more rapidly than Appalachia and has replaced that region as the bellweather of elections

I wouldn't usually do this, but I'm updating my prediction (just a little bit). Its clear that Donald Trump is pulling the Republican Party into a more anti-immigration platform. No matter who the nominee is, the whole process of talking about birthright citizenship, the 14th amendment, and restricting legal immigration, is going to hurt Republicans with Latinos and Asians. Therefore, I have moved Nevada to Lean D and New Mexico to Strong D.

Dave, when will primary predictions open?

After the primary calendar is supposed to be finalized  (October 1).

I'm now thinking that 2016 may be a landslide:
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Popular Vote: 55-44

Kasich/Ayotte v. Sanders/Kate Brown?

Rubio/Martinez appeals to many Latinos, and moderates get turned by a very scandal-prone Clinton/Sherrod Brown.

Look at his username. That's how it happens.

Jeb was looking like a lock for Prez,  but he faded. Now it looks as though Clinton can definitely seal the deal with the senate and Prez with a convincing victory over Trump. And Pa isnt lean GOP.

Oops

A pity Carson and Christie have the same colours in the 2016 Rep Primary prediction.

How do you make a prediction and get it added?

Mine is 299-239 R, 49-49% R.

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Co 40-50% D
FL 50-50% R
Pa 50-50% D
NH tossup to Lean D

Clinton-Castro 272-266 v Trump
51/49

OC, does that hold if Rubio or Cruz is the nominee?

Nice one. California and New York look like real killers for Trump.

Not a lot of room left when you start 84 points down.

Apologies for missing North Dakota's GOP primary over the weekend. My grandmother, who has just had a hip operation, was suffering from a low sodium count (and may have been ever since she was discharged) and therefore I have been more concerned about her. I am pleased to report that she is now recovering and wanted to explain the lack of a prediction for that event.

Clinton vs Trump Prognostication

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-01, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
Likely D: CO, MI, MN, NH, WI
Lean D: FL, IA, ME-02, NV, PA, VA
Toss-Up: NE-02, NC, OH
Lean R: AZ, GA
Likely R: AK, IN, MO, MT, UT
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, NE-01, NE-03, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY

Safe D: 190 EVs
Likely D: 49 EVs
Lean D: 75 EVs
Toss-Up: 34 EVs
Lean R: 27 EVs
Likely R: 33 EVs
Safe R: 130 EVs

Democratic: 314 EVs
Toss-Up: 34 EVs
Republican: 190 EVs

Overall Vote Prediction

Clinton: 51%
Trump: 44%
Johnson: 3%
Other: 2%

Overall Rating: Lean D (bellwether: PA, NV or IA)

Most likely result in my view is a repeat of 2012 except with North Carolina going narrowly to Clinton. I am perfectly flexible to changing ratings with new polling data, shifts in the race, or worldwide/nationwide events.

Atlas Prediction (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=15515)

May 31st Update

Likely D --> Lean D: ME-02, NH
Toss-Up --> Lean R: NC
Lean R --> Likely R: MO
Likely R --> Safe R: TX, UT

Temporarily, the race has moved in more favorable conditions for Trump, with a slight Clinton advantage still. My atlas prediction remains the same, but a Hillary win of 3-6% is more likely now with the current conditions.

July 5th Update

Lean R --> Toss-Up: NC
Safe R --> Likely R: UT

Added Overall Vote Prediction

August 1st Update

Lean D --> Likely D: CO
Likely D --> Lean D: NV

Updated Overall Vote Prediction

So Nevada is showing signs of being more competitive than previously thought. I will give the benefit of the doubt to Democrats since they are usually underestimated in the state polling and data, so I do not plan on ever moving to toss-up, but I can move it Likely D again. Colorado is because three polls came out averaging Clinton +10, and the state has one of the most college educated electorates in the nation, terrible news for Trump. Of course, flexible and can move back to Lean D. I do feel weird having Nevada more competitive than Colorado, but have to go with it for now.

8/6/16 Update

GA: Likely R --> Lean R
NH: Lean D --> Likely D

Updated Overall Vote Prediction

Clinton vs. Trump

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Dems: 345
Pubs: 138
Tossup: 55

Dems:
Strong: 195
Likely: 41
Lean: 109

Tossup: 55

Pubs:
Lean: 16
Likely: 6
Strong: 116

Overall: Likely D

With the latest poll showing TRUMP at 32% among Hispanics nationally, I now add Florida to his arsenal and therefore believe he would win if the election was held today.
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New maps following Trump racism comment. Big leg up for Clinton.

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State Ratings

Clinton vs Trump

Safe D: CA, WA, NM, HI, NY, MA, IL, MD, DE, VT, CT, RI, ME
Likely D: MN, OR, NJ
Lean D: WI, MI, PA, NH, CO, VA
Toss-Up: NV, OH
Lean R: AZ, GA, NE-02, NC, ME-02, IA, FL
Likely R: MO, UT, TX, SD, KS, SC, MT, ND, NE-01
Safe R: AK, ID, WY, OK, LA, AR, AL, TN, KY, WV, IN, MS

Safe D: 166 EVs
Likely D: 31 EVs
Lean D: 75 EVs
Toss-Up: 24 EVs
Lean R: 79 EVs
Likely R: 55 EVs
Safe R: 108 EVs

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Democratic: 272 EVs
Republican: 242 EVs
Toss-Up: 24 EVs

Popular Vote Prediction:

Clinton: 47.6%
Trump: 48.2%
Johnson: 4%
Stein: 0.2%
Other: 0.0%

Overall Rating: Toss-up  (bellwether: PA or IA)

Update 7/9- New Ratings

VA = Likely D --> Lean D
NV = Lean D --> Toss-up
ME-02 = Lean D --> Toss=up

Update 7/11 - New Ratings

NV = Toss-up --> Lean D

Update 7/13 - New Ratings

AZ = Lean R --> Likely R
IA = Toss-up --> Lean R
PA = Toss-up --> Lean R
FL = Toss-up --> Lean R
CO = Toss-up --> Lean D

Update 7/18 - New Ratings

IA = Lean R --> Toss-up
PA = Lean R --> Toss-up
NH = Toss-up --> Lean D
OH = Toss-up --> Lean R

Update 7/22 - New Ratings

IA = Toss-up --> Lean R
ME-02 = Toss-up --> Lean R
VA = Lean D --> Likely D

Update 7/26 - New Ratings

NH = Lean D --> Toss-up
NV = Lean D --> Toss-up
VA = Likely D --> Safe D
OR = Safe D --> Likely D

Update 7/27 - New Ratings

NH = Toss-up --> Lean R
OR = Likely D --> Lean D
NV = Toss-up --> Lean R

Update 7/30 - New Ratings

PA = Toss-up --> Lean D
OR = Lean D --> Toss-up
NH = Lean R --> Toss-up
ME-02 = Lean R --> Toss-up
VA = Safe D --> Likely D

Update 8/1 - New Ratings

UT = Likely R --> Safe R
OR = Toss-up --> Lean D
NH= Toss-up --> Lean R
ME-02= Toss-up --> Lean R
MI = Lean D --> Toss-up
WA = Safe D --> Likely D
PA = Lean D --> Toss-up
MN = Likely D --> Lean D
WI = Likely D --> Lean D

Update 8/3 - New Ratings

UT = Safe R --> Likely R
MS = Safe R --> Likely R
MN = Lean D --> Likely D
MI = Toss-up --> Lean D
PA = Toss-up --> Likely D
NH = Lean R --> Lean D
ME-02 = Lean R --> Toss-up
NV = Lean R --> Toss-up
NC = Lean R --> Toss-up
OH = Lean R --> Toss-up

Update 8/4 - New Ratings

NC = Toss-up --> Lean R

Update 8/5 - New Ratings

NC = Lean R --> Lean D
AZ = Lean R --> Toss-up
GA = Likely R --> Toss-up
UT = Likely R --> Lean R
FL = Lean R --> Toss-up
IA = Lean R --> Toss-up

Update 8/8 - New Ratings

AZ = Toss-up --> Lean R
GA = Toss-up --> Lean R
NC = Lean D --> Toss-up

Update 8/12 - New Ratings

NC = Toss-up --> Lean R
TX = Safe R --> Likely R
UT = Lean R --> Likely R
OR = Lean D --> Likely D
MI = Lean D --> Likely D
WI = Lean D --> Likely D
WA = Likely D --> Safe D


Update 8/15 - New Ratings

KS - Safe R --> Likely R
SC - Safe R --> Likely R
NE-02 - Likely R --> Lean R
OR - Likely D --> Safe D
MN - Likely D --> Safe D
MO - Likely R --> Lean R
NH - Lean D --> Likely D
SD - Safe R --> Likely R
NC - Lean R --> Toss-up

Update 8/18 - New Ratings

MS = Likely R --> Safe R
ND = Safe R --> Likely R
MT = Safe R --> Likely R
NC = Toss-up --> Lean D
FL = Toss-up --> Lean D
OH = Toss-up --> Lean D
ME-02 = Toss-up --> Lean D
NE-02 = Lean R --> Toss-up
NE-01 = Safe R --> Likely R

Update 8/21 - New Ratings

NE-02 = Toss-up --> Lean R
KS = Likely R --> Safe R
MT = Likely R --> Safe R
ND = Likely R --> Safe R
SD = Likely R --> Safe R
NC = Lean D --> Lean R
OR = Safe D --> Likely D
ME-02 = Lean D --> Toss-up
MN = Safe D --> Likely D
NE-01 = Lean R --> Likely R
MI = Likely D --> Lean D
WI = Likely D --> Lean D
NH = Likely D --> Lean D

Update 9/2 - New Ratings

IA = Toss-up --> Lean R
PA = Likely D --> Lean D
NH = Lean D --> Likely D
ME-02 = Toss-up --> Lean R
VA = Likely D --> Toss-up
MO = Lean R --> Likely R
NE-02 = Lean R --> Likely R
UT = Likely R --> Lean R

Update 9/8 - New Ratings

CO = Likely D --> Lean D
VA = Toss-up --> Lean D
NH = Likely D --> Lean D
FL = Toss-up --> Lean R
UT = Lean R --> Likely R
NJ = Safe D --> Likely D

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PA will vote D

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Clinton: 200
Trump: 142
Toss-up: 196


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Clinton: 358
Trump: 180

This is not a serious map. Indiana a Toss-Up?

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Idaho, Montana, and South Dakota are Lean R and South Carolina is Safe R!? This hurts my head...

North Carolina is currently 30% R on the prediction map :p

Arizona is now a toss-up
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North Carolina has flipped to Clinton in the aggregate prediction.

I'm going to do a new one of these for all the changes that have come from the recent week or so in Clinton's direction.

Clinton vs Trump Ratings

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-01, MD, MA, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA
Likely D: CO, ME-02, MI, MN, NH, PA, VA, WI
Lean D: FL, NV, OH
Toss-Up: AZ, IA, NE-02, NC
Lean R: GA, MO
Likely R: AK, IN, MT, NE-01, SC, TX
Safe R: AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, NE-03, ND, OK, SD, TN, UT, WV, WY

Safe D: 190 EVs
Likely D: 83 EVs
Lean D: 53 EVs
Toss-Up: 33 EVs
Lean R: 26 EVs
Likely R: 65 EVs
Safe R: 88 EVs

Democratic: 326 EVs
Toss-Up: 33 EVs
Republican: 179 EVs

Atlas Prediction (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2548)

Ratings I'm stuck on: Nevada (Lean D vs Likely D), both Dakotas (Safe R vs Likely R), Texas (Safe R vs Likely R), Indiana (Likely R vs Lean R). Particularly because we haven't seen polls from many places other than battlegrounds. Nevada and Indiana particularly look weird, but I may update them in the coming weeks.

Overall Vote Prediction

Clinton: 50%
Trump: 44%
Johnson: 4%
Other: 2%

Rating: Likely D, bellwether: Colorado, Pennsylvania

August 16th Update

AZ: Lean R --> Toss-Up
TX: Safe R --> Likely R

August 23rd Update

UT: Likely R --> Safe R

September 9th Update

IA: Lean D --> Toss-Up

Changed Overall Vote Prediction

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WI and PA move to Lean D, NE-2 moves to a Toss-Up, SC no longer safe for Trump

Even if Trump carries all the Toss-Ups, Clinton still wins, 273-265.

SC is still safe R on the prediction map! Sad!

My Map as of now:

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Hillary on the downswing:

PA - Lean D to Toss-Up
NJ - Safe D to Lean D
RI - Safe D to Lean D
ME-2 - Lean D to Toss-Up
ME-AL - Safe D to Lean D
NE-2 - Toss-Up to Lean R

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Oh give me a break. Do you actually believe those Washington Post numbers that much?

Both them and Emerson found similar results.

Dude if you going to go with the crap polls in some states, do it in all of them.  Texas should be tossup and the like.  Or are you just the huge hack that you keep trying to tell us your not?

I've said I won't believe #BattlegroundTX until it actually happens on election day, and not a moment before. And how am I a Trump hack when I rate SD, MT, ID, and IN as only Lean R?

^^ Yeah, I agree. You're just incredibly stupid.

What the heck, I'll post mine.

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There are several states that are somewhere between ratings:
Between Safe R and Likely R: AK, IN, KS, MT, NE-01, SD, TX
Between Likely R and Lean R: MO
Between Toss-Up and Lean D: FL, NC, OH
Between Lean D and Likely D: ME-02
Between Likely D and Safe D: MI, MN

My Confidence Map

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Clinton: 268EV
Trump: 219EV

My Prediction Map (My pessimism makes me believe that this will be a surprise close race.)

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Clinton: 278EV
Trump 260EV

Trump locks in UT/ID/AK.

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SC to Safe R, Michigan to Toss-Up.

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CO/WI to Toss-Up, AZ to  Lean R.

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FL: Lean D -> Toss-Up
ME-02: Likely D -> Lean D
NC: Lean D -> Toss-Up
PA: Likely D -> Lean D

Here's my current prediction, with no tossups. 

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:(

BTW, that's Clinton 281, Trump 254.  :-/

ME to Tossup, 2nd district is now Lean R. MT/IN lock in.

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AK: Likely R -> Safe R
AZ: Toss-Up -> Lean R
CO: Likely D -> Lean D
IN: Likely R -> Safe R
ME-02: Lean D -> Toss-Up
MT: Likely R -> Safe R
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
WI: Likely D -> Lean D

NV: Likely D -> Titanium R, since demographics, voting history, and past polling results are irrelevant. Trump's casino resort machines and uneducateds are all that matter. He'll win in a landslide, and take Heck with him.

^ You're really taking this meme of yours to extremes. I obviously don't think that Trump is going to win 90% of the vote in NV or that it the state is safe for him. I'm just saying that when we have a wealth of polls showing something to be a battleground, we should consider it to be a battleground. Betting on a past error showing up again is very dean chambers esque.

I've explained my reasoning several times, and I'm guessing most people on this forum don't want to hear it again. Go ahead and believe that NV is a Toss-Up if you like, but if it doesn't end up close on election day, many people on this forum are going to have to eat a healthy dose of humble pie.

Apologize for what? I didn't realize wrong predictions merited apologies. If it's somehow close (and the PV is close too,) then I'll admit that, at least for the time being, it is a swing state. Looking at the math, though, Trump would have to win white voters by at least a 2:1 margin (it was already 56-43 Romney in 2012), and probably win nearly 75% of white men (considering that the gender gap will be larger this year.) That's obviously not going to happen...

Clearly his Casinoresortmachine™ will allow him to win 93% of white voters. ;)

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IA: Tilt R
OH: Pure Toss-Up
NC: Tilt D
FL: Pure Toss-Up
NE-02 Tilt R

Nevada and Michigan return to Lean D.

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Clinton 298
Trump 240
At this moment 9/30/16: I'll check back in one month.

Likely R Colorado?!?

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Gonna be a bit bold with my ratings.

CO: Lean D -> Likely D
FL: Toss-Up -> Lean D
MI: Likely D -> Safe D
MN: Likely D -> Safe D
MO: Likely R -> Safe R
VA: Likely D -> Safe D
WI: Lean D -> Likely D

(NV: Titanium R -> "Likely" D)

I'm going to say that it will end up being
Trump 46%
Hillary 41%
Johnson 8.5%
Stein 4%
Mcmullin 1%

NM: Safe D --> Lean D

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CO: Toss-Up --> Lean D

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I would change that based on the latest polling!

PA: Toss-Up --> Lean D
RI: Lean D --> Safe D

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Trump can afford to lose ME-AL (he needs ME-2 though), but other than that he needs to sweep all the Toss-Ups to win.

FL: Toss-Up ---> Lean D
AZ: Lean R ---> Toss-Up
NE-2: Lean R ---> Toss-Up

#Clintonover270

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Safe Clinton: 190
Likely Clinton: 62
Lean Clinton: 27
Toss-Up: 69
Lean Trump: 27
Likely Trump: 27
Safe Trump: 136

Clinton: 279
Trump: 190
Toss-Up: 69

Overall: Lean Clinton
Tipping Point: Pennsylvania
Bellwether: Pennsylvania

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WI: Toss-Up to Lean D

#Clintonover300

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Post-assaultgate:

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If I had to guess what the electoral map looks like at this particular moment in time:

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>60% = Safe
>40% = Likely
>30% = Lean
>20% = Tilt (AZ and GA are Tilt if you couldn't tell)

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Allowing for the possibility of Trump completely imploding, without assuming it to be likely. Several previously safe states for Trump are now likely, other changes:

AZ: Lean R -> Toss-Up
NH: Likely D -> Safe D
NC: Toss-Up -> Lean D
WI: Likely D -> Safe D

The Atlas predictions are as always a lagging indicator. The following predictions need less than 20 changes in opinion among the 326 predictions to alter status as of right now:

Arkansas:
R 50% to R 60%: 12 changes

Arizona:
R 40% to R 50% : 14 changes
R Lean to Tossup: 4 changes

Iowa:
D 40% to D 30%: 7 changes
D 40% to R 30%: 8 changes
D 40% to R 40%: 11 changes

Kentucky:
R 60% to R 50%: 18 changes

Minnesota:
D Lean to D Strong: 10 changes

Nebraska-2:
R 50% to R 40%: 18 changes
R Lean to Tossup: 9 changes

ME-2: Lean R ---> Toss-Up
ME-AL: Toss-Up ---> Lean D
OH: Toss-Up ---> Lean D
MI: Lean D ---> Safe D

Clinton landslide incoming!

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Utah: Lean R ---> Toss-Up
Idaho: Safe R ---> Lean R

Just how big is this landslide going to be?

^I highly doubt Trump is in any trouble in Idaho. 25% Mormon is not the same as 60% Mormon.

NC: Toss-Up to Lean D

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OH back to Toss-Up, ND/SD lock in for Trump

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Post-Debate: Clinton locks in Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota

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Barring something extreme, Clinton has this.

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AK: Likely R -> Lean R
CO: Likely D -> Safe D
FL: Lean D -> Likely D
GA: Lean R -> Toss-Up
NV: Likely D -> Safe D (should have done this a long time ago)
OH: Toss-Up -> Lean D
PA: Likely D -> Safe D
UT: Likely R -> Toss-Up

NC: Lean D -> Toss-Up
GA: Lean R -> Toss-Up

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ID locks in.

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Moving NV back out of Safe, but I would still consider it a pretty big upset if Trump won it.

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Ratings

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Safe D: 190
Likely D: 82   <-- Overall
Lean D: 51
Toss-Up: 36
Lean R: 32
Likely R: 65
Safe R: 82

Clinton: 323✔
Trump: 179
Toss-Up: 36

Prediction

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Clinton/Kaine: 348
Trump/Pence: 190

Specific State and CD percentages (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1PT-eb4KLB03PjLT9vIhNtbLiQ-I_uKur2b-ZPaCni2I/edit?usp=sharing)

Well, this is a change I never imagined I'd be making:

AK: Lean R -> Toss-Up

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Hillary's still massively favored, but the odds of a landslide are approaching nil.

FL: Likely D -> Lean D
ME-02: Toss-Up -> Lean D
MO: Lean R -> Likely R
MT: Likely R -> Safe R
NE-01: Likely R -> Safe R
ND: Likely R -> Safe R
OH: Lean D -> Toss-Up
SD: Likely R -> Safe R

Trump is probably getting a minor bounce, but Clinton still has 278 EVs at least leaning towards her, and one of these changes is actually in her favor:

FL: Lean D -> Toss-Up
ME-AL: Lean D -> Safe D

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GA moves back to Lean R

Also locking in IN

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I am not using the map for percentages.  The lighter shades are my tossups, showing a guess of how each will go.  

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I am assuming a slight trend to Trump, and looked as past elections.  I have it at:

Clinton:  269
Trump:  269

I was not trying to come out with a tie.

A stronger trend to Trump and he wins; the tide shifts slightly to Clinton, she wins.  A tidal wave and well ....  If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

I would also be watching to see what the CD's in Maine and Nebraska do.  It may come down to one of those.

The polling averages combined with the 538 odds obligate me to put NV back in the Toss-Up category (Trump actually leads in the 538 now-cast of NV). However, Hillary is still a very clear favorite in the election, as there is no indication whatsoever that Trump has caught up in WI, PA, NH, or NM. Trump needs one of those states to actually win.

In less surprising news, I have decided to lock in MO, MT, and SC.

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Clinton has 285 electors, Trump must win NC, FL and PA

When it is all said and done, I believe Trump will carry the state of Utah.

Edit: And Arizona.

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Putting a thumb on the scale for Trump in Iowa, Ohio, and NE-2. Still a long way to go for him though - he needs to take both North Carolina and Florida - I would put NC in Clinton's column if the election were being held today. He then needs to dislodge one of the lean Dem states and potentially supplement it.

If he takes PA - no supplement needed
If he takes WI - needs Nevada, or Alaska+ME-2, or Alaska alone if he's willing to settle for 269-269
If he takes NM - needs Nevada and Alaska
If he takes NH - needs Nevada and Alaska for 269-269, ME-2 as well for 270.

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Some tightening, but Hillary will almost certainly be okay. Not many Ohio polls, assuming we don't get anything more, I'll tilt it to Trump.

Mine is the 2012 map except Ohio,Iowa, North Carolina flips

HRC wins.

Clinton 375

Trump 163

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Well, I know I said I wasn't going to do it on IRC last night, but ultimately with the data from republican-leaning Quinnipiac University, the National poll from Monmouth, and the current 538 now-cast, I am going to put all of North Carolina, Nevada, and Florida in Clinton's column.

Alaska had a Clinton +3 poll recently that made dems very excited, but it hasn't been backed up by anything, and at the end of the day, Alaska has only voted for one Democrat since its inception as a state - LBJ in 1964. Hillary is not winning by an LBJ-esque margin, and it just seems that on a night where he is winning in GA, AZ, UT, OH, IA, and NE-2, Trump losing in Alaska would be very weird. It may happen, sure, but I just can't predict it.

ME-2 is obviously very close, but I have to make a pick at this point. Ultimately, considering the fact that Clinton may get a mini-mini-surge from Comey's 2nd non-indictment, the fact that Maine hasn't split its electoral votes before, and the fact that Clinton leads or ties in three of the top four polls on 538 by weight, I am giving this one to Clinton. But I wouldn't be surprised by a Trump upset.

My final prediction shows Clinton winning by a margin of 323 EVs to 215 EVs. This does not take into account the possibility of faithless electors throughout the nation.

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BREAKING: Mike Naso updated his prediction, is in the vicinity.

Final Predictions

Here (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1PT-eb4KLB03PjLT9vIhNtbLiQ-I_uKur2b-ZPaCni2I/edit?usp=sharing)

Final Ratings

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Safe D: 185
Likely D: 87
Lean D: 36
Toss-Up: 34
Lean R: 17
Likely R: 46
Safe R: 133

Clinton: 308✔
Trump: 196
Toss-up: 34

I'm doing a post-prediction analysis and recording how wrong I was in each state. Clinton +2 means I was 2 points more favorable for Clinton than the actual result, etc.

Alabama: Clinton +2
Alaska: Clinton +3
Arizona: Trump +2
Arkansas: Clinton +5
California: Trump +1 (so far)
Colorado: Clinton +4
Connecticut: Clinton +7
Delaware: Clinton +7
District of Columbia: Trump +4
Florida: Clinton +5
Georgia: Trump +1
Hawaii: Clinton +5
Idaho: Clinton +4 (+2 McMullin)
Illinois: Clinton +3
Indiana: Clinton +10 (ouch)
Iowa: Clinton +3
Kansas: Clinton +2
Kentucky: Clinton +6
Louisiana: Clinton +3
Maine: Clinton +13 (embarrassing)
Maryland: Clinton +3
Massachusetts: Trump +3
Michigan: Clinton +11
Minnesota: Clinton +10
Mississippi: Clinton +5
Missouri: Clinton +10
Montana: Clinton +7
Nebraska: Clinton +9
Nevada: Clinton +4
New Hampshire: Clinton +7
New Jersey: Clinton +3
New Mexico: Clinton +2
New York: Clinton +7
North Carolina: Clinton +5
North Dakota: Clinton +19 (oops)
Ohio: Clinton +7
Oklahoma: Clinton +4
Oregon: Clinton +6
Pennsylvania: Clinton +7
Rhode Island: Clinton +10
South Carolina: Clinton +6
South Dakota: Clinton +14 (another oops)
Tennessee: Clinton +5
Texas: Even
Utah: Trump +5 (McMullin +1)
Vermont: Clinton +3
Virginia: Clinton +3
Washington: Clinton +4 (so far)
West Virginia: Clinton +11 (ouch)
Wisconsin: Clinton +8
Wyoming: Clinton +8

Overall: Clinton +3
Electoral: Clinton +91

Prediction scores have (finally) been posted.  Many apologies for taking so long to do this. We had not 51-state correct predictions and only one 50-state correct prediction -> from RobLewis (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=14312) and that was made on Oct 5.  Congratulations.

A call-out to user norlion (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&id=848) whom predicted 49 correct states - in December of 2015.

Top overall score is Dav64 (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=11068) with 48 correct states and 39 correct percentages.

Enjoy,
Dave