Talk Elections

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 45%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 43%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Scott Walker ................................................... 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 47%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Chris Christie .................................................. 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 48%
Ben Carson..................................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Rick Santorum................................................ 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 41%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 38%

...

Scott Walker ................................................... 37%
Bernie Sanders ............................................... 32%

Scott Walker ................................................... 36%
Jim Webb........................................................ 29%

Scott Walker ................................................... 38%
Martin O'Malley............................................... 30%

Scott Walker ................................................... 36%
Lincoln Chafee................................................ 27%

...

Public Policy Polling® surveyed 799 registered voters, including 385 Democratic primary voters and 334 Republican primary voters, from May 21st to 24th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.5%, for the Democrats it’s +/-5.0%, and for the Republicans it’s +/-5.4%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_52815.pdf

#SolidD
#FoolsGold
#Inevitable

Interestingly enough, Hillary is doing much better than Obama with Whites and still not better overall (against Rubio/Walker/Paul). Also, 54% have an unfavorable opinion of her. If this holds, PA should be as much of a swing state as OH, even though this poll seems to be skewed towards Republicans by about 2 points.

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Public Policy Polling on 2015-05-24 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220150524108)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 41%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_52815.pdf)

The fools gold looks promising? How unexpected.

April 12,2011: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=134324.0 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=134324.0)

PA is loyal, it won't betray the Clintons.

PPP's last PA 2012 poll had the margin almost correct (52-46%) but the crosstabs had Romney only winning whites 50-49%.

That thread is an amusing reading. Fools gold, indeed.

And LOL at Bush doing as badly against Hillary as Palin was against Obama. He really can't play the electability card.

I may have to ironically endorse Jeb, just for the hilarious Clinton landslide in November.

Are you a Republican?

I think the GOP has no choice but to go after PA in a serious way, especially if VA looks like it may lean a bit more Dem (Kaine or Warner as VP pick would really push it)

We'll see if Rubio's numbers hold up once he receives actual scrutiny as opposed to the media slobberfest he's gotten since entering the race.

Obama had a +6 favorability rating in PA according to exit polls, Hillary right now is -16 so it's very likely she will do worse than Obama's 52-47 win maybe a Kerry's-sequel performance but Kerry was never as unpopular as her.

Your cherry picking facts. Obama's approval ratings were severely underwater during the 2012 campaign. PPP generally had Obama with approval ratings in between high 30s and low 40s in PA. Its very likely PPP is doing what it always does and over estimates republicans until a few months before the election where they fix themselves so they don't look stupid.

PA is trending red and isn`t fools gold anymore in 2016

I suppose OH PA and Va by this order will fall in line how the nation goes

In 2012 it wanst much of a target by Romney and he did very well

Clinton only needs CO; NV and Pa, for 272 electors. Pa is solid. It still will be a close contest.

Romney spent money going on the offensive in PA that Democrats knew wasn't serious enough to need defense. If Republicans were seriously going to contest PA, Democrats would spend exorbitant amounts on defense and deny Republicans that victory.

This fantasy where PA becomes more Republican than the nation is just that. There's only so much you can max out on the declining western part of the state. And what appeals there doesn't appeal to Democratic areas in the east.

Glass is half full analysis going on in this thread. What really should be the headline is Hillary has a -16 favorable rating yet STILL leads everybody.

What is going to take to win the state? 60+% of Pennsylvanians disliking her? Do we really think that's possible? Do we honestly expect her to become more unpopular than this? Do we honestly expect Marco Rubio's favorable rating to stay positive through the GOP primaries?

The crosstabs tell an even worse story. Hillary's bad favorable rating is built on a -3% with Moderates, yet she leads Rubio with moderates by 23. How is it going to get any better than this?

Because while Hillary is a known quantity, many of the Pubs are not, and if a Pub wins the nomination, who acts like they would make a competent POTUS, without seeming scary and extreme, or too war mongering, there is a potential that the moderate vote will more closely resemble Hillary's favorability rating with moderates. Make sense?  The other unknown, as in all elections these days, is relative turnout levels. Will Hillary manage to get the same black turnout Obama did?  And how will the economy be doing then?

The only way in which PA becomes more R than the rest of America is if a raft of states that haven't voted for any Democrat since Bill Clinton make abrupt turns (returns?) to the Democratic Party.

Just going to point out that Jeb is doing worse than Ted Cruz. 

Hilarious.