Talk Elections

FL:

Hillary/Rubio: 47/44
Hillary/Bush: 46/42
Hillary/Christie: 46/35
Hillary/Paul: 46/39
Hillary/Huckabee: 49/38
Hillary/Walker: 48/38
Hillary/Cruz: 48/37
Hilllary/Kasich: 48/35


OH:

Kasich/Hillary: 47/40
Hillary/Christie: 44/39
Hillary/Paul: 43/43
Hillary/Huckabee: 46/41
Hillary/Bush: 42/41
Hillary/Rubio: 45/42
Hillary/Walker: 44/40
Hillary/Cruz: 47/39


PA:

Rubio/Hillary: 44/43
Paul/Hillary: 45/44
Hillary/Christie: 43/41
Hillary/Huckabee: 46/39
Hillary/Bush: 45/41
Hillary/Walker: 46/41
Hillary/Cruz: 47/40

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2234

LOL@ PA being more competitive than FL and as competitive as OH according to this poll. Still, really great numbers for Rubio.

Btw: That 43-point gender gap in PA is the largest I have ever seen in any 2016 poll.

She still leads Jeb, in all of the states.😍

The fact that she doesn't lead others in all the states gives Rubio, Paul, and Kasich more to say in terms of electability over Bush. Many who support Bush now may not support Bush once they see further into election season that he is truly not electable.

As for the polls I think PA is finally a true swing state with Western PA likely with the GOP and the philly suburbs being much more purple with no incumbent. Ohio is competitive and Florida looks accurate for now too, support is being withheld from the GOP in the polls slighty due to the competitve primary I think too. But that's normal.

I don`t understand why they polled Kasich in FL but not in PA

Clinton cares about ultimately Pa; and Jeb who clearly was Gov of FL will win that too, although FL senate is a tossup.

It comes down to OH or Co and NV for 270 or 272 electors.

PA is defenetily in play in 2016

Hillary is very strong in FL.  She is as strong or stronger than Rubio and Bush in FL than she is against them in OH and PA.  Even with the home state effect and the more Republican PVI in Florida.

Personally, I have a hard time believing that the Democrats will loose PA while winning FL.  On the other hand, there have been polls showing that she's doing better in NC as well.  Maybe she's just unusually strong in the South and weak in the Midwest?  I'd be interested in seeing how she does in Virginia.

Why would the Philly suburbs be more purple with no incumbent? The Republicans are not magically more electable there simply because Obama's not in office.

QU always show Clinton doing better outside of Pa, in OH or FL. I will like to see Colo polls too because, it is the fourth battleground state.

Jeb is clearly from FL, and that can give him an edge.

Flashbacks to 2011... (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=139006.0)

PA is always in play, and then it's not.

The GOP should be terrified of Clinton's strength in FL. Bush or Rubio have to be on the ticket.

If Hillary wins in Florida then the Republicans need to win NC, VA, OH, IA and CO, plus either PA or WI, NV, and NH.

Without Florida, the Republican's path to victory is perilously narrow.

Yeah it's a year out before we can read anything from these polls. Hillary up double digits and Florida but behind not one but two candidates in Pennsylvania? I doubt it.

Funny that Jeb is actually more popular in Ohio than in Florida, and equally popular in Florida and Pennsylvania. :P

Btw, they didn't poll Santorum in Pennsylvania? LOL.

Florida is one of the 3-4 states in the US changing the fastest demographically. Pennsylvania is hardly changing at all. Maybe Obama was simply a very bad fit for Florida (due to his blackness and youth and northern (academic) style), Hillary (obviously, due to her age and stature) is not.

The guy who won it twice was a bad fit. Right.

He hardly did better than Gore and Kerry in Florida. That should tell you pretty much everything you need to know. Despite monumental demographic change in Florida that could only favour the Democratic candidate, Obama actually did worse than both Gore and Kerry relative to the national swings.

PA is more competitive than Florida... I've seen everything now.

Jk, but I'm really surprised to see Rubio down in FL but up in PA.

Sorry they polled Hillary-Kasich in PA too: 45/39

Of most interest of course are the Hillary percentages, rather than the Pub percentages at this point. And it is interesting that Hillary's percentages are a tad higher in FL than PA and Ohio. Is it the Hispanic vote or something? Seeing the cross tabs, even with high margins of error, would be helpful. Oh, there are cross tabs, but not by ethnicity.  

Part of it is, I think, that Clinton does marginally better in the Panhandle than Obama.  At the margins, this makes a big difference.

Solid numbers for Clinton overrall, especially in Florida, but I learned long ago not to trust Quinnipiac polls more than a few months out.

Bottom line: both sides can find positives in these results or they can call the results junk for one reason or another, and if you can't see that, you likely are so partisan toward one side or the other that you're unreachable.

Jeb Bush generally IS NOT electable and the damn GOP needs to get off their ass and see this before they give up their chance for a recent historical 3rd time loss.

Put a Rand and Rubio on that ticket and you can win. Please, for the love of God nominate Rand or Rubio in 2016 as the ticket.

Or you can cite all of it as too early to call. Your pick.

It hasn't and it won't anymore than Romney and Massachusetts.

See NYT Article "Hispanic Voters Are Important for Republicans, but Not Indispensable"
Hispanics compromised 17% of voters in 2008 in Florida, poised to make up 19% in 2016. Jeb and Rubio possibly could make up for that, but so far, they haven't.

Someone going to add these to the database?

LOL

No, according to the RCP average it's basically a tie when matched against Bush/Rubio.

On Mason-Dixon, she even trails.

What the polls show is that FL is and remains a swing-state.

Q has had the strongest tendency to give the strongest chance to Hillary Clinton in Florida but not elsewhere.

Pennsylvania and Ohio will be decided on turnout. Republicans will need to break the willingness of late-deciders to vote to have any chance to win either state. That has been shown easy in the midterm elections of 2002, 2010, and 2014. A Presidential year? Such won't be so easy.

Exactly. Hillary is not "unbeatable" in FL. I know that in 2013, people were talking about FL being solid D with Hillary at the top of the ticket, but honestly, that's a joke. If the election was held today, she'd probably win it by three or four points.

A Bush/Rubio, Bush/Martinez or Bush/Sandoval match up against a Clinton/Castro ticket would be very interesting in the way that it would energize latino voters like never before. Perhaps latinos could be the new black in such a scenario, in the way that African American turnout for the first time was higher than white turnout in 2012 (although I doubt it as they start from such a low place currently).

Clinton cares about the PA numbers, Jeb cares about his FL numbers. And then once QU polls Colo, the fourth swing state, compare that to her Ohio numbers, we will get a better feeling on how race is shaping up.

There are far more than four swing states. Get real. At least you should add Virginia and North Carolina as well. Probably others too, like Iowa and perhaps New Hampshire (though I feel it's drifting too far to the left in order to be a real swing state this time around, unless the GOP elects a really moderate ticket).

New Poll: Florida President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-06-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220150615015)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 41%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2234)

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-06-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3920150615015)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 41%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2234)

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-06-15 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220150615015)

Summary: D: 45%, R: 42%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2234)

Mixed bag as usual. The PA numbers are bad of course. FL numbers are really good, leading even the homestaters by an Obama 08 margin or greater.

The poll does confirm Kasich's strength in Ohio. He'd be a real threat if he somehow managed to make it out of the clown car.

And according to Gravis, Kentucky and Washington are battleground states!

Obviously it could just be randomly a more Dem leaning FL sample than the OH and PA samples, but I also think there is probably an age component to it. There have to be some non-negligible number of elderly folks who mostly vote Republican and have for the last decade but will vote for Hillary because last time her name was in the news they supported her. Thus she is a "good guy" to them even if the parties have traded places in their ranking. It might not be over any issue in particular, but if the race is Bush vs. Clinton, I'd have to think there are people out there who remember it the first time and will vote the same way they did in 1992.

They have sample details at the bottom of the release. Florida 2016 is expected to be 67% white, compared to 83% for PA/OH. 2012 was around 67% white as well.