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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => 2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: MT Treasurer on June 23, 2015, 03:09:13 pm



Title: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: MT Treasurer on June 23, 2015, 03:09:13 pm
Matt Bevin (R): 38%
Jack Conway (D): 35%
Drew Curtis (I): 6%

Horse Race with Curtis supporters allocated to second choice:

Matt Bevin (R): 40%
Jack Conway (D): 38%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_KY_6231523458923458.pdf


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in downballot races
Post by: MT Treasurer on June 23, 2015, 03:22:40 pm
Down-ballot races:

Secretary of State:

Alison Lundergran Grimes (D): 42%
Steve Knipper (R): 47%

Attorney General:

Andy Beshear (D): 36%
Whitney Westerfield (R): 41%

State Treasurer:

Rick Nelson (D): 32%
Allison Ball (R): 41%

State Auditor:

Adam Edelen (D): 33%
Mike Harmon (R): 39%

Agriculture Commissioner:

Jean-Marie Lawson Spann (D): 31%
Ryan Quarles (R): 40%


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on June 23, 2015, 03:27:59 pm
Remember when Grimes was gonna beat McConnell? Me neither.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Ebsy on June 23, 2015, 03:35:15 pm
Well, I'm going to change my prediction for PPP's presidential poll. Slaughter for Hillary.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 23, 2015, 03:36:43 pm
Looking good for Pubs.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: SunriseAroundTheWorld on June 23, 2015, 03:38:18 pm
I'll support Bevin, despite my dislike for him.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 23, 2015, 03:39:14 pm
Would be something if KY outdoes AR with a clean sweep.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Maxwell on June 23, 2015, 03:41:01 pm
If Bevin is leading before Republicans coalesce in November, Conway is toast.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on June 23, 2015, 03:58:28 pm
RIP Kentucky Democrats


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on June 23, 2015, 03:59:37 pm
Surprised by this. May be just a primary bounce, we'll have to see.

In any case, after adding this poll to and removing a now known SUSA outlier from my average, Conway's lead drops to 2.33%. With this being an atlas blue state, I think the following change is fair:

KY GOV: Leans D ---> Toss-Up




Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: MT Treasurer on June 23, 2015, 04:02:51 pm
This is a sample that voted 52%-39% Romney in 2012. However, Romney won the state of KY by 22 points (60%-38%). So this poll may even be (slightly?) biased towards Democrats.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Maxwell on June 23, 2015, 04:09:15 pm
This is a sample that voted 52%-39% Romney in 2012. However, Romney won the state of KY by 22 points (60%-38%). So this poll may even be (slightly?) biased towards Democrats.

That's even worse for Conway. RIP.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: ElectionsGuy on June 23, 2015, 04:11:31 pm
Oh goodness, Grimes won with 61% in 2011.

RIP Kentucky Democrats


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: For Trump everything, for immigrants the law on June 23, 2015, 04:13:13 pm
Really, one poll showing Bevin slightly ahead and we're already calling the race for him? Let's see if he can survive the summer without making a bone-headed comment first. Still a toss-up.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on June 23, 2015, 04:14:14 pm
This is a sample that voted 52%-39% Romney in 2012. However, Romney won the state of KY by 22 points (60%-38%). So this poll may even be (slightly?) biased towards Democrats.

PPP is known for its "don't remember" subsample being disproportionately republican-leaning, but it's probably still slightly biased toward dems.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: wifikitten on June 23, 2015, 04:24:46 pm
Oh sweet Jesus, if this poll pans out in November, RIP sanity in Kentucky politics.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: RFayette on June 23, 2015, 05:12:04 pm
Bevin is probably favored at this point


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Talleyrand on June 23, 2015, 06:08:58 pm
Yeah, it's going to be a bloodbath.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Hydera on June 23, 2015, 06:25:44 pm
The Arkansas democrats resisted for so long despite the unpopularity of the national democrats since 2000 in that state and finally got swept out in 2014.

Looks like the last holdouts in Kentucky will fall as well.


Oh sweet Jesus, if this poll pans out in November, RIP sanity in Kentucky politics.

Having the national brand become unpopular is one thing. Destroying one of the most symbolic industries of which the same areas were your strongholds even despite nixon and reagan is another.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Cory Booker on June 23, 2015, 06:48:36 pm
Conway, is now the underdog in the race, but he like Grimes, did have problems in that Senate race, in 2010, and these were the states that gave Dems problems in 2014.

There is still a little time left.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on June 23, 2015, 07:19:41 pm
This poll is a complete joke: Grimes and Edelen aren't going to lose, obviously, let alone to such weak opponents.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on June 23, 2015, 07:25:22 pm
This poll is a complete joke: Grimes and Edelen aren't going to lose, obviously, let alone to such weak opponents.

PPP is not known for being junk. There is nothing to counter their data at this point.

#it'sjunkbecauseIdon'tliketheresults


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Skill and Chance on June 23, 2015, 07:28:26 pm
Well, Kentucky was fun for Democrats while it lasted.  I think this strongly suggests Manchin will also be toast in 2018.

Off topic, but the Democrats really need to take the right steps now so that they are prepared to do this to at least one of the Bush-Obama states the next time there's a Republican president.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: yeah_93 on June 23, 2015, 07:30:39 pm
lol @ Grimes losing.
Quote
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve 33% ..........................................................
Disapprove 60% ......................................................
Not sure 8%
Well, that's gotta hurt. Still a tossup for now, though. Let's see if Bevin doesn't self destruct. But whatever, one moment McConnell has a real chance of losing, the next he wins by 16 points.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on June 23, 2015, 07:36:41 pm
PPP is not known for being junk. There is nothing to counter their data at this point.

Bevin losing the last poll by 11 sort of counters it.

Bevin being Bevin sort of counters it too.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on June 23, 2015, 07:54:09 pm
PPP is not known for being junk. There is nothing to counter their data at this point.

Bevin losing the last poll by 11 sort of counters it.

That's a SUSA poll, SUSA is junk in KY.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Cory Booker on June 23, 2015, 08:16:39 pm
Well, Kentucky was fun for Democrats while it lasted.  I think this strongly suggests Manchin will also be toast in 2018.

Off topic, but the Democrats really need to take the right steps now so that they are prepared to do this to at least one of the Bush-Obama states the next time there's a Republican president.

Tester, is now the weakeat link in 2018 cycle


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on June 23, 2015, 08:18:49 pm
Well, Kentucky was fun for Democrats while it lasted.  I think this strongly suggests Manchin will also be toast in 2018.

Off topic, but the Democrats really need to take the right steps now so that they are prepared to do this to at least one of the Bush-Obama states the next time there's a Republican president.

Tester, is now the weakeat link in 2018 cycle

Tester is the weakest link? What? Donnelly is far and away the most vulnerable senator in 2018. In fact, Tester is probably the 2nd safest of the 5 Romney state senators up in 2018 (Manchin is the safest, of course) .


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Maxwell on June 23, 2015, 09:54:24 pm
Adam Edelen's numbers are easily the most embarrassing - the guy is trailing at 33% as the Incumbent. Wow.

Though the one with the hardest hole to dig out of is Alison - she's got the least undecideds and still trails by five.

If any of these Democrats win, it's probably either Conway or Beshear. Beshear's numbers aren't as bad as the other two because he isn't an Incumbent and, from that, his numbers are probably more flexible. And to be fair to Conway, he comes the closest to actually winning something.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Joshua on June 23, 2015, 10:23:12 pm
RIP Kentucky Democrats.

RIP Kentucky.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: bronz4141 on June 23, 2015, 10:40:43 pm
Kentucky Democrats can survive. Don't abandon the party. Kentucky Democrats can win.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on June 23, 2015, 10:59:01 pm
Kentucky Democrats can survive.

They will, sooner or later. Even this poll has Conway handily winning the youngest voters.

My big worry is that it'll happen too late.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Ebsy on June 23, 2015, 11:01:45 pm
I guess we'll just have to wait and see.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on June 23, 2015, 11:11:57 pm
I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

The Democrats will come back in all 50 states sooner or later, thanks to the age gap - unless the current 2-party system somehow falls by the wayside, which is possible but not probable.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: 136or142 on June 23, 2015, 11:34:11 pm
One poll 4 months before the election at the start of summer and you're already declaring the outcome?


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Cory Booker on June 24, 2015, 04:35:16 am
Well, Kentucky was fun for Democrats while it lasted.  I think this strongly suggests Manchin will also be toast in 2018.

Off topic, but the Democrats really need to take the right steps now so that they are prepared to do this to at least one of the Bush-Obama states the next time there's a Republican president.

Tester, is now the weakeat link in 2018 cycle

Tester is the weakest link? What? Donnelly is far and away the most vulnerable senator in 2018. In fact, Tester is probably the 2nd safest of the 5 Romney state senators up in 2018 (Manchin is the safest, of course) .

Testet isnt the second safest senators out there.  He narrowly beat Rehberg.  Mnt is gonna go heavily for GOP candidate. But, you are correct Donnelly is weak as well.

I would argue if Hilary is in WH, having McCaskill and Heikmp will be nice.😍

Obviously, this race isnt L Dem anymore, its a tossup, Bevin got a bounce from winning primary.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: aktheden on June 24, 2015, 07:45:57 am
Welp...this shows that the Democratic Party is now fully 100% dead to southern whites....It is going to be a bloodbath in 2016....I can see a situation where the GOP win ~98% of the white southern vote


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Cory Booker on June 24, 2015, 08:20:57 am
Ha, Ha, first poll from KY since the primary. Bevin got a bounce. Just because it is PPP doesnt mean that much.

Clinton is competetive in Ohio, Colo and Va states that are more friendly towards Dems. Conway had ethical issues in 2010.

I expect race to go down to wire.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on June 24, 2015, 08:33:57 am
Clinton is competetive in Ohio, Colo and Va states that are more friendly towards Dems. Conway had ethical issues in 2010.

What ethical issues are these? If he had ethical issues, trust me, it would be all over the Kentucky media by now.

I know he's not that great. But ethical issues???


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on June 24, 2015, 08:34:45 am
How on earth does Clinton impact this race?

Maybe Clinton is just so far ahead so early that it helps the Democrats overall.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Cory Booker on June 24, 2015, 08:45:51 am
Ha, Ha, first poll from KY since the primary. Bevin got a bounce. Just because it is PPP doesnt mean that much.

Clinton is competetive in Ohio, Colo and Va states that are more friendly towards Dems. Conway had ethical issues in 2010.

I expect race to go down to wire.

How on earth does Clinton impact this race?

I will counter your pts one by one, give me time.

Conway, mistaking injected religion into a photo, and Aqua Buddha affected senate race.
Second counter, the above pollster said if Dems lost KY, then the DEMS are dead because we need the south.  Clinton can win Co, OH or Va, our tipping pt races, we are familiar of.


Title: KY: Public Policy Polling: Close Race for Kentucky Governor
Post by: Dave Leip on June 24, 2015, 09:33:22 am
New Poll: Kentucky Governor by Public Policy Polling on 2015-06-21 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2015/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2120150621108)

Summary: D: 35%, R: 38%, U: 21%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_KY_6231523458923458.pdf)


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Maxwell on June 24, 2015, 10:14:34 am
Ha, Ha, first poll from KY since the primary. Bevin got a bounce. Just because it is PPP doesnt mean that much.

Clinton is competetive in Ohio, Colo and Va states that are more friendly towards Dems. Conway had ethical issues in 2010.

I expect race to go down to wire.

How on earth does Clinton impact this race?

I will counter your pts one by one, give me time.

Conway, mistaking injected religion into a photo, and Aqua Buddha affected senate race.
Second counter, the above pollster said if Dems lost KY, then the DEMS are dead because we need the south.  Clinton can win Co, OH or Va, our tipping pt races, we are familiar of.

beep boop


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: RFayette on June 24, 2015, 11:24:18 am
PPP is not known for being junk. There is nothing to counter their data at this point.

Bevin losing the last poll by 11 sort of counters it.

Bevin being Bevin sort of counters it too.

A poll significantly after the GOP primary contention has way more validity though.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on June 24, 2015, 11:27:27 am
A poll significantly after the GOP primary contention has way more validity though.

A 14-point swing to the GOP, despite scandal after scandal?


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: mds32 on June 25, 2015, 10:38:52 am
If the GOP sweep the row offices of Kentucky it will be amazing. The AG IMO is still their best shot with Beshar


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: RFayette on June 26, 2015, 09:24:31 am
A poll significantly after the GOP primary contention has way more validity though.

A 14-point swing to the GOP, despite scandal after scandal?

Voting for Peroutka is not a scandal.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Cory Booker on June 28, 2015, 03:03:20 am
KY is a conservative state. I wouldnt be surprised if Dems lose all three.

2016, 2017 and 2018 looks promising and Dems will make up ground in.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: MT Treasurer on July 17, 2015, 11:06:21 am
Sabato moves the race from Toss-up to Leans Republican (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/my-old-kentucky-home-could-matt-bevins-soon-be-the-governors-mansion/)


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on July 17, 2015, 11:18:20 am
Why haven't we seen any new polls on this, and what would the numbers be like after the past few weeks of Bevin gaffes and scandals?


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: MT Treasurer on July 17, 2015, 11:27:15 am
Why haven't we seen any new polls on this, and what would the numbers be like after the past few weeks of Bevin gaffes and scandals?

What new gaffes and scandals? Did Bevin vote for Buchanan in 2000 or what? Please enlighten us.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on July 17, 2015, 11:33:05 am
What new gaffes and scandals? Did Bevin vote for Buchanan in 2000 or what? Please enlighten us.

All of them.

He's been caught in several lies, and his support of cockfighting is ridiculous.

Then again, I guess it could help him, since his right-wing base tends to double down on stuff lately.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: MT Treasurer on July 17, 2015, 12:10:14 pm
What new gaffes and scandals? Did Bevin vote for Buchanan in 2000 or what? Please enlighten us.

All of them.

He's been caught in several lies, and his support of cockfighting is ridiculous.

Then again, I guess it could help him, since his right-wing base tends to double down on stuff lately.

::) If this is the best Conway has, Bevin will win by double digits.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on July 17, 2015, 12:14:44 pm
::) If this is the best Conway has, Bevin will win by double digits.

Trust me, it isn't. Conway at least has run a good campaign so far.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: MT Treasurer on July 17, 2015, 12:17:12 pm
::) If this is the best Conway has, Bevin will win by double digits.

Trust me, it isn't. Conway at least has run a good campaign so far.

So has Grimes.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on July 17, 2015, 12:21:47 pm
Sabato moves the race from Toss-up to Leans Republican (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/my-old-kentucky-home-could-matt-bevins-soon-be-the-governors-mansion/)

I think Sabato is being too optimistic on the Republican side. I mean, seriously, the republicans are running Matt Bevin, the guy who was supposed to give McConnell this huge challenge and then lost by 25. Meanwhile, Conway was elected in a landslide to both of his terms as Attorney General.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on July 17, 2015, 12:24:08 pm
Sabato moves the race from Toss-up to Leans Republican (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/my-old-kentucky-home-could-matt-bevins-soon-be-the-governors-mansion/)

I think Sabato is being too optimistic on the Republican side. I mean, seriously, the republicans are running Matt Bevin, the guy who was supposed to give McConnell this huge challenge and then lost by 25. Meanwhile, Conway was elected in a landslide to both of his terms as Attorney General.

That is true, but on the other hand, Conway's opponents were Stan Lee and Todd P'Pool. He beat P'Pool pretty handily, but it should have been an absolute blowout, since after all it was Todd P'Pool.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on July 17, 2015, 12:26:31 pm
P'Pool is so bad that in 2014 he lost re-election as County Attorney in Hopkins County, of all places. That should have been a GOP slam-dunk, since he was an incumbent Republican in 2014 in a rural county.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: ElectionsGuy on July 20, 2015, 03:00:36 pm
Sabato moves the race from Toss-up to Leans Republican (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/my-old-kentucky-home-could-matt-bevins-soon-be-the-governors-mansion/)

I think Sabato is being too optimistic on the Republican side. I mean, seriously, the republicans are running Matt Bevin, the guy who was supposed to give McConnell this huge challenge and then lost by 25. Meanwhile, Conway was elected in a landslide to both of his terms as Attorney General.

Everybody always says that Sabato is too Republican and every year they are the most accurate source of ratings. I think he's right to move it to Lean R. Kentucky is making a notable shift at the state level. I'm quite surprised their Democratic party is this strong to still have every statewide office except Land Commissioner.


Title: Re: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on November 04, 2015, 04:32:31 pm
Why can't all pollsters be this good?