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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst on July 16, 2015, 10:45:04 am



Title: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst on July 16, 2015, 10:45:04 am
Clinton (D)...................... 47%
Rubio (R)........................ 43%

Clinton (D)..................... 47%
Carson (R)......................43%

Clinton (D)..................... 47%
Walker (R) .....................42%

Clinton (D)..................... 47%
Paul (R).......................... 42%

Clinton (D)...................... 47%
Gilmore (R)...................... 35%

Clinton (D)....................... 49%
Trump (R)........................  39%

Cinton (D)........................ 49%
Huckabee (R)................... 39%

Clinton (D)........................45%
Christie (R)...................... 39%

Clinton (D)....................... 48%
Cruz (R)........................... 41%

Clinton (D)....................... 46%
Fiorina (R)....................... 39%

Clinton (D)...................... 46%
Bush (R)......................... 38%
_________________________________________________________________________
Sanders (D)...................  43%
Trump (R)....................... 39%

Bush (R)......................... 40%
Sanders (D)................... 39%

Walker (R)..................... 39%
Sanders (D).................. 38%

Rubio (R)...................... 40%
Sanders (D)...................38%

Webb (D)..................... 40%
Walker (R)................... 37%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/07/bush-leads-gop-field-in-virginia-but-clinton-ahead-for-general.html


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon on July 16, 2015, 11:05:39 am
Other info.:

Webb leads Walker 40/37

All candidates are seen unfavorably. Webb comes closest to breaking even at 32/33, Carson is 2nd closest at 30/32. Clinton is at 43/50.

Chafee, Christie, and Gilmore are seen unfavorably across the entire political spectrum.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: Mehmentum on July 16, 2015, 11:16:49 am
Rubio, Carson: D+4
Walker, Paul, Fiorina: D+5
Christie: D+6
Cruz: D+7
Bush: D+8

Huckabee, Trump: D+10

Gilmore: D+12

Horrible poll for Bush.  He's doing worse than Ted Cruz? 

Gilmore's performance is hilarious, but not surprising.  He lost his last election in the state by a 31 point margin.  Yeah, some of that was Warner's popularity, and some of that was because it was 2008, but a lot of it is that Gilmore is that unpopular.  I have no idea why he thinks running for president is a good idea.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: yeah_93 on July 16, 2015, 11:19:57 am
Republicans might want to step up their game, or else I'll begin to believe the people around here that say Virginia leans D.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: Free Bird on July 16, 2015, 11:22:31 am
Republicans might want to step up their game, or else I'll begin to believe the people around here that say Virginia leans D.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst on July 16, 2015, 11:26:01 am
Republicans might want to step up their game, or else I'll begin to believe the people around here that say Virginia leans D.

It's time for the GOP to make a REAL play for PA. VA is moving away from them, even though these numbers probably reflect the national numbers.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: EliteLX on July 16, 2015, 11:27:16 am
Been waiting for this poll.. and wow am I shocked by bushes numbers.

We'll see where this goes.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: Lief 🐋 on July 16, 2015, 11:31:16 am
LOLOLOL The Trumpster is winning the Hispanic sample against Sanders (46%-39%) but Sanders is winning it against Rubio (40%-35%).

Just goes to show you: pathetic trolls like dudeabides are absolute JOKES.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: bronz4141 on July 16, 2015, 11:44:50 am
Tim Kaine or Mark Warner would give Hillary a bigger boost if he is her VP.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: Mehmentum on July 16, 2015, 11:47:36 am
Nobody's favorables are good, but I'm very surprised at how poorly Bush does.

Bush: 52% Unfavorable, 25% Favorable. 

That's on par with Trump and Christie's ratings.

Trump: 55% Unfavorable, 35% Favorable
Christie: 55% Unfavorable, 24% Favorable


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: olowakandi on July 16, 2015, 01:58:14 pm
Well, Va as well as NV continues Dem trend.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: Mr. Illini on July 16, 2015, 05:41:10 pm
I don't think Clinton will lead every single Republican.

Oops


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: pbrower2a on July 16, 2015, 06:10:40 pm
The Republican numbers among 18-29 year olds are awful.


Republicans have little to offer the young-adult vote.  This age group gives President Obama 58% approval, which is decidedly above the approval rates for other, older voters. This age group might be more minority than other generations, but not that much more. I see no reason to believe that Virginia is significantly more D than the rest of America. Virginia is close to being the likely tipping-point state in 2016, and in view of the state straddling regions of America (Northeast urban America, Appalachia, and the Old South) it is a fairly-good microcosm of America; Florida and Ohio are the others. 

Should the young-adult vote vote as it did in 2008 and in large numbers nationwide, then the GOP is in big trouble nationwide. There is no new source of right-wing voters. Although Virginia has no Senate seats in play, we can readily see trouble for Republicans holding onto the Senate... and quite a few House seats. If Republicans lose lots of even to R+5 seats they then lose the House.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on July 16, 2015, 09:49:10 pm
The Republican numbers among 18-29 year olds are awful.


All things considered... I don't know why that's surprising.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: olowakandi on July 17, 2015, 04:56:43 pm
Va is a swing state not a GOP state anymore. Thats why Dems are competetive☺


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon on July 17, 2015, 04:59:51 pm
Va is a swing state not a GOP state anymore. Thats why Dems are competetive☺
Thank you, Captain Obvious.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 17, 2015, 05:08:30 pm
The Republican numbers among 18-29 year olds are awful.


Contrary to whatever pbrower is spouting, I think this phenomenon may be even worse in Virginia. I can't see these numbers at the moment, but there was a poll that has like 20-25% of them going for Sarvis (L) in the Senate race. May not have been accurate at tge end of the day, but the young may be exceptionally socially liberal there.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: ExtremeConservative on July 17, 2015, 05:31:28 pm
The Republican numbers among 18-29 year olds are awful.


Contrary to whatever pbrower is spouting, I think this phenomenon may be even worse in Virginia. I can't see these numbers at the moment, but there was a poll that has like 20-25% of them going for Sarvis (L) in the Senate race. May not have been accurate at tge end of the day, but the young may be exceptionally socially liberal there.
Cuccinelli won 18-24 in 2013.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: Mehmentum on July 17, 2015, 06:09:35 pm
The Republican numbers among 18-29 year olds are awful.


Contrary to whatever pbrower is spouting, I think this phenomenon may be even worse in Virginia. I can't see these numbers at the moment, but there was a poll that has like 20-25% of them going for Sarvis (L) in the Senate race. May not have been accurate at tge end of the day, but the young may be exceptionally socially liberal there.
Cuccinelli won 18-24 in 2013.
Well, Sarvis voters (15% of the 18-24 & 25-29 vote) + low turnout distorts that.

In 2014, 18-24 voters voted identically to 25-29 voters.  Mark Warner also won 18 - 24 voters in 2014.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2014/exit-polls


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: Mr. Illini on July 18, 2015, 09:53:25 am
It wasn't just the Sarvis distortion, though. The phenomena in Virginia is caused by the disproportionate number of 25-29s in Northern Virginia. 18-24s are significantly less likely to live in NoVA whereas 25-29s are significantly more likely to be in NoVA working for the government than any other age group, but particularly the 18-24s.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: pbrower2a on July 19, 2015, 08:54:45 am
The Republican numbers among 18-29 year olds are awful.


Contrary to whatever pbrower is spouting, I think this phenomenon may be even worse in Virginia. I can't see these numbers at the moment, but there was a poll that has like 20-25% of them going for Sarvis (L) in the Senate race. May not have been accurate at tge end of the day, but the young may be exceptionally socially liberal there.

Spouting?

Here's how PPP sees Virginia, at least on approval or disapproval of President Obama, one of the more obvious left-right divides in America

Age       Approval/ Disapproval

18-29    58/31
30-45    48/45
46-65    45/52
over 65 41/55

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_VA_71615.pdf

I can't say that other states go as Virginia does. Virginia will obviously be troublesome for Republicans for the next few years, at the least. I have seen suggestions of much the same in other states. Virginia could be 'worse' in that respect than other states.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: olowakandi on July 19, 2015, 01:15:00 pm
I know this is a shock to GOP, since Va, as well as OH is key to their electoral success. They made their convention in Cleveland.

It just proves that unlike midterms, OH and Fairfax county, Va, which went Dem, concerning the Gillespe and Warner race, is a purple state in presidential elections.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: pbrower2a on July 19, 2015, 02:46:09 pm
Contrast another state, Michigan, that leans D:

Obama Approval/Disapproval by age:

overall 44-49
18-29  49-41
30-45  40-53
46-65  44-48
over 65 44-51

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MI_6302015.pdf


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: olowakandi on July 20, 2015, 09:51:52 am
Once Fairfax county comes in, usually, OH is called quickly.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL/WI on July 20, 2015, 01:25:31 pm
Once Fairfax county comes in, usually, OH is called quickly.

Interesting. I didn't realize that the vote total in Fairfax had such a huge impact on races in Ohio.

This poll seems a bit optimistic. I'm still considering Virginia a toss-up for now, but Republicans will be in trouble if Virginia begins to lean Democratic. That would mean that winning Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and Florida (none of which are foregone conclusions) wouldn't be enough, and they'd need Pennsylvania or New Hampshire.


Title: Re: VA-PPP: Clinton leads all Republicans; good numbers for Sanders as well
Post by: ElectionsGuy on July 20, 2015, 03:07:09 pm
These are pretty terrible numbers for the R's. This state will probably lean Democratic in 2016, but I'm still keeping in mind the Democratic bias in Virginia polls. The Republicans may have to find a path around it, including states like Colorado, Iowa, Pennsylvania, etc.