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Election Archive => 2016 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: HillOfANight on July 22, 2015, 10:46:53 pm



Title: NH SEN: Ayotte leads Hassan 47-41
Post by: HillOfANight on July 22, 2015, 10:46:53 pm
http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmur-poll-ayotte-holds-small-lead-over-hassan-in-possible-us-senate-matchup/34299356

http://www.wmur.com/blob/view/-/34300810/data/1/-/14g1q5b/-/GSP-Ayotte-Hassan-Guinta.pdf
Quote
48% of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of Ayotte, 25% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 8% are neutral and 19% don’t know enough about her to say. Ayotte’s net favorability rating is +23%, up from +20% in May.

Senior senator Jeanne Shaheen remains popular in the Granite State. Currently, 56% of New Hampshire adults say they have a favorable opinion of Shaheen, 32% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 5% are neutral and 6% don’t know enough about her to say. Shaheen’s net favorability rating, the percentage who have a favorable opinion of her minus the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion, is +24%, down from +27% in May.

I think Jeanne's higher favorability ratings bode well for Hillary.
Ayotte is moderate enough that NH doesn't feel like kicking her out, even if they are more aligned with Hassan politically.


Title: Re: NH SEN: Ayotte leads Hassan 47-41
Post by: Cory Booker on July 23, 2015, 03:33:26 am
Why do they keep polling NH, Hassan has made no move on running.


Title: Re: NH SEN: Ayotte leads Hassan 47-41
Post by: Judy Baar Topinka on July 23, 2015, 08:24:25 am
Splendid! Hassan cant stop the funk.


Title: Re: NH SEN: Ayotte leads Hassan 47-41
Post by: Cory Booker on July 23, 2015, 10:26:58 am
Dems certainly dont need NH in order to win senate.


Title: Re: NH SEN: Ayotte leads Hassan 47-41
Post by: mds32 on July 23, 2015, 04:54:43 pm
4 polls in a row showing Ayotte leading 6-11 points.


Title: Re: NH SEN: Ayotte leads Hassan 47-41
Post by: Impeachment Inquiry on July 23, 2015, 04:58:35 pm
Hassan trails in the bluer district, yet leads in the purple one. Weird poll. UNH is always strange.


Title: Re: NH SEN: Ayotte leads Hassan 47-41
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on July 23, 2015, 05:00:58 pm
Dems certainly dont need NH in order to win senate.

No, but with Toomey significantly leading Sestak in PPP surveys, Burr having no clear challenger, Portman having a large collection of attack ads used by Kasich in the 2010 gubernatorial election that he (Portman) can simply (re-)attack Strickland with, and McCain likely to survive his primary, dems shouldn't let NH 'fall by the wayside'.


Title: Re: NH SEN: Ayotte leads Hassan 47-41
Post by: Cory Booker on July 23, 2015, 05:39:43 pm
Dems certainly dont need NH in order to win senate.

No, but with Toomey significantly leading Sestak in PPP surveys, Burr having no clear challenger, Portman having a large collection of attack ads used by Kasich in the 2010 gubernatorial election that he (Portman) can simply (re-)attack Strickland with, and McCain likely to survive his primary, dems shouldn't let NH 'fall by the wayside'.

Toomey leads by four pts in last PPP survey.  And 2 QU polls in a row shows Strickland competetive.  I think Senate is still a tossup.


Title: Re: NH SEN: Ayotte leads Hassan 47-41
Post by: Judy Baar Topinka on July 23, 2015, 05:43:55 pm
Without NH its hard to see Democrats taking the Senate, especially if Heck wins in Nevada. 


Title: Re: NH SEN: Ayotte leads Hassan 47-41
Post by: Cory Booker on July 23, 2015, 05:46:46 pm
Pa, OH, WI, IL and FL.  I am encouraged by McGinty in Pa Senate race. Net 5 and lose NV. IL, FL and WI are lean takeovers.

I wouldnt rely om those ratings for senate like Sabato, because Hilary or Dems will surely win IL, WI and Pa and competetive in OH and CO.


Title: Re: NH SEN: Ayotte leads Hassan 47-41
Post by: whitesox130 on July 23, 2015, 06:07:55 pm
Bottom line in New Hampshire: Hillary must win the state by a significant margin for Ayotte to be ousted. A close race will make it difficult, and a GOP win at the top of the ticket makes taking this seat nearly impossible for Democrats.

Bottom line nationally: As things stand now, Democrats probably need to win the presidency to win the Senate. Otherwise, they will have a hard time getting past 3-4 pickups, and they would need 5 for an outright majority without the presidency. Illinois and Wisconsin are favorable, Florida is very close, and they have plausible chances in a few other states, but not if they don't win the presidency.


Title: NH: University of New Hampshire: Ayotte Leading in New Hampshire
Post by: Dave Leip on July 27, 2015, 03:43:11 pm
New Poll: New Hampshire Senator by University of New Hampshire on 2015-07-20 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=33320150720065)

Summary: D: 41%, R: 47%, I: 1%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.wmur.com/blob/view/-/34300810/data/1/-/14g1q5b/-/GSP-Ayotte-Hassan-Guinta.pdf)