Talk Elections

Leads all Pubs comfortably. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IL_72915.pdf)

Walker has a 64/15 favorable rating in IL. Interesting.

~10 point leads seem more suggestive of a Kerry/Gore-esque performance than either of Obama's wins (granted the home state effect was strong in his first election). Either Hillary is a paper tiger or the Midwest is trending Republican even faster than I thought.

Sanders is also leading all Pubs outside the margin of error

Just in case anyone got any ideas of a competitive Illinois in the future

Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Scott Walker?

Favorable 32%
Unfavorable 38%
Not sure 30%

That's only among Republicans.

Same sample that gives Obama a 47%-46% (+1) approval gives Clinton a 45%-47% (-2) favorable.  PPP doesn't appear to be picking up on any Clinton favorability crash.

Isn't 45%/47% for Clinton a rather poor showing, given how Democratic the state is?

Yes. At this point the election is "who do you not like the least"?

It is, but the point of my post was that it's in line with Obama's approval, which is different than what some other polls have shown.

Her leads are pretty weak for Illinois. Maybe the Obama bump was big.

Clinton 48%
Bush 39%

Sanders 42%
Bush 37%

Clinton 49%
Carson 37%

Clinton 49%
Christie 35%

Clinton 51%
Cruz 35%

Clinton 49%
Fiorina 34%

Clinton 51%
Huckabee 35%

Clinton 47%
Paul 37%

Clinton 49%
Rubio 37%

Clinton 51%
Trump 33%

Sanders 48%
Trump 32%

Clinton 50%
Walker 39%

Sanders 40%
Walker 36%

Yes, 10 points in Illinois is a very pedestrian lead (and it's the state Hillary grew up in). The favorite son effect for Obama, largely wore off in 2012, and yet he won by close to 20 points.

Yes, 10 points in Illinois is a very pedestrian lead (and it's the state Hillary grew up in). The favorite son effect for Obama, largely wore off in 2012, and yet he won by 17 points.

Nice to see Bush trailing by less than 10.

If she wins the state by a Kerry 2004 margin, it might suggest good news for Republicans in PA.

Kerry won Pennsylvania in 2004. And Hillary is a much better fit there than Obama.

Clinton wont lose Pa.

PA is indeed part of the 272 blue wall, and it is a swing blue state; like OH is a swing red state; and CO is the purple state.

Ask Wolf, Corbett came within six of winning and the race was put away long time before election night☺

PA is indeed part of the blue wall if Hillary wins. If she doesn't, then it's on play.

BTW didn't Corbett lose by 10?

Wolf won by 9, but Corbett exceeded expectations, he was down by 15 or more most of time.

Unskew for PPP's liberal bias and you have a dead heat. What a shock poll.

Seriously, Clinton will outperform Kerry here, but probably do slightly less well than Obama. Downstate has trended Republican, but the metro area isn't getting any redder and is pretty much stagnant.

Maybe by like 2028 or 2032 I can definitely see it being competitibe.

Well polling almost 16 months from an election is usually BS anyhow...

Oh, the sky is a nice shade of blue today...

Actually as I read at DKE this is pretty much the same result Hillary got in 2008 when polled against McCain.

Any reason for that outside of Republican wet dreaming?

Polling in solidly Democratic/Republican states often makes the states seem like they'll be closer than they actually end up (see WA, OR, CA, CT, AR, KY, WV, TN, etc.) I'm pretty confident Clinton will win IL by double digits, unless 2016 is a Republican massacre.

Republicans doing better with blue collar whites and growing suburbia.

No, it's 32/38.

"Whatever."

The more interesting and relevant Illinois race is Kirk vs. Duckworth. I don't see how Duckworth doesn't pull through due to the timing of the general election, though Kirk is a fierce campaigner.

The Kirk campaign of 2010 was dirty -- including an attempt to link a Greek-American opponent to the Sicilian Mafia.

Are there any Greek-American crime syndicates?

By the time Illinois is competitive North Carolina and Georgia would be solid democratic states....

None of Kerry-Gore states of 242 electors will vote R. Including MI, IL or Pa

I didn't make that claim, and wouldn't.

You on the other hand did claim that Illinois will be competitive in the near future, so you should probably back that up.

9-point lead.

That said, wow. If Kirk steps up his game, he might make Illinois a lot more favorable for Republicans come 2016. That coul have... Interesting effects on Representative elections.