Talk Elections

Donald Trump 30%
Jeb Bush 11%
Mike Huckabee 7%
Scott Walker 7%
Rand Paul 6%
Marco Rubio 5%
Ben Carson 5%
John Kasich 3%
Rick Perry 3%
Chris Christie 3%
Ted Cruz 2%
Carly Fiorina 2%
Rick Santorum 2%
Lindsey Graham 2%
Bobby Jindal 2%
George Pataki 1%
Jim Gilmore 0%
Wouldn't vote 11%

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150727-20150731/collapsed/false/chart/table (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150727-20150731/collapsed/false/chart/table)

EDIT: Forgot to add Graham's numbers to this.

:o

You have more people who wouldn't vote for majority of the candidates. Other than Bush and Trump everyone is just taking up space at this time. I feel the younger Republican candidates will do better in the next Presidential election because of the crowded competition. 

So reading from the link, this is just their one day sample for July 31?

>not including Graham
>Reuters

The massive amount of Graham voters this poll excludes could have dropped Trump's total from 30% to 29.5% or something.

Wow, already a third of the people who would vote. Weird that they counted wouldn't vote in.

The OP just forgot to add Graham's numbers in the post, he's corrected it now.  What's wrong with Reuters? It's not like they're Gravis, Zogby, or ARG. 

apparently they have a daily tracking poll with a 5 day rolling average. You can see a chart of it here:
http://polling.reuters.com/#!

Unless I'm missing something, this is just their daily tracking poll, and just a one day sample for July 31, right?  They've been doing this tracking poll every day for months:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=211173.0

I wonder when will Trump's numbers will fall. Maybe they won't, but someone else will get past him in time. Hopefully. Can't wait until half of the candidates drop out.

Oh wait, maybe I was wrong.  The layout of the page linked in the OP is kind of confusing.  But if you go here:

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150727-20150731/collapsed/false)

it does indeed look like these #s are the five day rolling average, not the one day (July 31) sample.  The sample size aggregated for those five days is 439 responses.

They also poll a 3-way matchup here:

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130BY15_30/type/smallest/dates/20150724-20150731/collapsed/false)

Trump 35%
Bush 22%
Walker 18%

Here are their latest Democratic #s:

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR131/type/smallest/dates/20140731-20150731/collapsed/false)

Clinton 45%
Sanders 13%
Biden 10%
Cuomo 2%
Webb 2%
O'Malley 1%
Chafee 1%
Gillibrand 1%

Not sure why they're still polling "candidates" who've already endorsed Clinton.

Ted Cruz on 2% is the concerning number.

However, doesn't this poll just confirm that it's about name recognition-I mean Huckabee on 8% seems strange since he's not getting much money, he's not really dominated the news feed and he's sounding crazier than 2008.

Good that Kasich has got a slight bounce

This is the greatest poll I've ever seen. I'd even be somewhat happy with any non-Bush of the top 6.

#DONALD-NATING!
#MakeAmericaGreatAgain

These are the results among just D/Rs, which is why "wouldn't vote" is so high. When you filter it among likely D/R primary voters, Trump's lead is decreased significantly (and Clinton's increased significantly.)

Not that it matters since Reuters is a junk pollster, as evidenced by the fact that they are still polling candidates who have not only shown no interest in running, but have already endorsed a candidate. Now that we're getting much more polling, there's no need to scrape the bottom of the barrel anymore.

Here's the latest from their tracking poll (I'm not going to bother starting a new thread for each update):

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-22515

(Polling for Aug. 1-5.)

Dems:

Clinton 52%
Sanders 17%
Biden 14%
Cuomo 3%
Chafee 1%
Gillibrand 1%
O'Malley 1%

GOP:

Trump 24%
Bush 16%
Walker 12%
Paul 7%
Cruz 6%
Carson 5%
Huckabee 5%
Perry 4%
Rubio 4%
Christie 3%
Graham 3%
Kasich 3%
Santorum 2%
Fiorina 1%
Jindal 1%
Pataki 0%

This Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll does seem to be pretty junky, but we are starved for post-debate polls, so just for fun, I looked at the 5-day rolling average among likely Republican primary voters for the completely pre-debate sample vs. samples that included the last few nights.

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,LIKELYR:1,PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150803-20150807/collapsed/false)

Here are the top 9 candidates for Aug. 1-5 (entirely pre-debate):

Trump 22%
Bush 16%
Walker 14%
Cruz 9%
Huckabee 8%
Paul 7%
Kasich 5%
Carson 5%
Rubio 5%

Then for Aug. 2-6 (four pre-debate nights plus the night of the debate itself):

Bush 22%
Trump 21%
Walker 13%
Cruz 11%
Huckabee 6%
Carson 6%
Kasich 5%
Paul 4%
Rubio 4%

Then for Aug. 3-7 (three pre-debate nights, the night of the debate itself, plus one post-debate night):

Trump 24%
Bush 22%
Walker 13%
Cruz 9%
Carson 7%
Huckabee 6%
Kasich 5%
Rubio 3%
Paul 3%

So I don't know that anyone has had a meaningful gain, other than Bush, and no meaningful decline for anyone other than Paul.  But this is probably a junky poll, so I wouldn't read much into it.

Oh, and Fiorina in the three overlapping samples is 1.1%, 1.3%, and 1.8%.  Again, small enough movement that it probably doesn't mean anything.  I'll wait for real polls that give entirely post-debate #s.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/10/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0QF1WL20150810?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/10/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0QF1WL20150810?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews)

Republican support for real estate mogul Donald Trump held firm after a televised presidential debate last week in which he feuded with rivals and moderators, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday.

Trump led the party's 17-strong 2016 presidential field with the backing of 24 percent of Republican voters, the same level of support he earned before Thursday's debate.

His closest rival, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, trails at 12 percent, down from 17 percent before the debate. No other candidate earned more than 8 percent in the online poll, which was conducted between the end of the debate on Thursday and Sunday.

Slay Trump slay!

()

Hmmmm…..oddly, they still only show the Mon-Fri sample (which, as I said in my Saturday post, is still mostly pre-debate) on their own website.  For some reason I guess they only update that once every week (even though they're producing new 5 day rolling samples every day)?

OK, I found a full release of their post-debate polling (conducted Aug. 6-10):

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2015ReutersTracking08.10.2015.pdf

Trump 24%
Bush 12%
Carson 8%
Huckabee 8%
Rubio 8%
Walker 7%
Fiorina 6%
Cruz 5%
Kasich 4%
Graham 3%
Paul 3%
Christie 1%
Jindal 1%
Perry 1%
Santorum 1%
Pataki 0%


Who do you think did the best job in the Republican primary debate?
[Asking only Republican voters who at least heard a little about the debate]

Trump 24%
Rubio 10%
Carson 9%
Bush 8%
Cruz 8%
Huckabee 6%
Christie 3%
Paul 3%
Walker 3%
Kasich 2%

They also asked Republican voters if the debate gave them a more positive or more negative view of each candidate.  Here's the positive % / negative % for each:

Rubio 28/11% for +17%
Walker 25/8% for +17%
Fiorina 29/13% for +16%
Carson 26/14% for +12%
Cruz 25/13% for +12%
Huckabee 24/13% for +11%
Kasich 14/9% for +5%
Trump 30/28% for +2%
Bush 18/17% for +1%
Christie 12/18% for -6%
Paul 8/22% for -14%

Latest Ipsos/Reuters national tracking (Aug. 10-14):

likely Democratic primary voters (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR131/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20150810-20150814/collapsed/false)

Clinton 61%
Sanders 20%
Biden 14%
Gillibrand 1%
Cuomo 1%
Webb 1%
O'Malley 1%
Chafee 0%

likely Republican primary voters (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,LIKELYR:1,PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150731-20150814/collapsed/false)

Trump 17%
Carson 14%
Bush 13%
Walker 8%
Rubio 7%
Cruz 7%
Fiorina 7%
Paul 6%
Huckabee 5%
Christie 4%
Kasich 3%
Jindal 3%
Perry 2%
Santorum 2%
Pataki 0%
Graham 0%

Latest Ipsos/Reuters national tracking (Aug. 14-18):

likely Democratic primary voters (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR131/type/smallest/filters/LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,LIKELYD:1,PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20150813-20150818/collapsed/false)

Clinton 60%
Sanders 17%
Biden 16%
Cuomo 2%
Chafee 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Webb 0%
O'Malley 0%

likely Republican primary voters (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,LIKELYR:1,PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150813-20150818/collapsed/false)

Trump 22%
Carson 17%
Walker 12%
Bush 9%
Huckabee 9%
Paul 5%
Fiorina 5%
Rubio 5%
Cruz 4%
Perry 3%
Kasich 3%
Christie 3%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%
Pataki 0%
Graham 0%

If it's just Bush/Carson/Trump… (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130BY15_33/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150814-20150818/collapsed/false)

Trump 33%
Bush 32%
Carson 28%

So Sanders actually lost ground in this? None of the real national polls are showing that. Junk poll!

Online Ipsos polls have a C+ rating from 538. CNN has an A-. I'll go with that CNN poll.

Trump/Carson unity ticket?

The latest 5-day rolling average is now:

32% Trump
16% Bush
  8% Carson

Link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150731-20150821/collapsed/false)

48% Clinton
25% Sanders
12% Biden

Link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR131/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20150718-20150821/collapsed/false)

I would be somewhat afraid of a Rubio/Carson ticket actually. I know Carson has said crazy things in the past, yet he has probably had the greatest, most structured and well taught out campaign so far (with Rubio second).

*Dies*

Niccceeeeeee...

For (8/17-8/21), a three way race
Trump 44.1%
Bush 28.6%
Carson 24.7%

30% Trump
10% Huckabee
8% Bush
8% Carson
7% Walker
5% Rubio
4% Cruz
4% Paul
4% Fiorina
3% Kasich
3% Christie
2% Perry
1% Jindal
1% Santorum
1% Graham
1% Gilmore
0% Pataki

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150731-20150825/collapsed/false

What the...?

Hillary's lead is now the smallest ever:

45% Hillary
25% Sanders
16% Biden

Huckabee is now 2nd for some reason:

33% Trump
12% Huckabee
10% Bush

Trump's lead is now larger than Hillary's.

That's an unusually strong showing for Huckabee considering two recent polls had him at three percent, and there hasn't been anything newsworthy lately to raise his profile.

Junk poll?

I think so....

Well the difference between this and his usual poll results are just barely outside the usual margin of error, so...

35% Trump
12% Carson
  8% Bush


http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6984

Biden at only 14%? JUNK POLL

Sanders within 14% in a national poll. Another high water mark.

Ipsos online is rated at C+ by fivethirtyeight, so slightly more reliable than gravis. Both Hillary and Bernies movements btw are within the margin of error from there last three polls.

Full #s:

()

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2015/09/11/us/politics/11reuters-usa-election-poll.html

Clinton 39
Sanders 31
Biden 16

OMG, go Bernie! What a hilarious race this year. When will the establishment Dems finally hop off the Clinton train?

Bernie's victory is inevitable.

Isn't this just their tracking poll, which they update every day?  We had a thread on their results from two days ago here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=218982.0

Shouldn't we just put it in one thread, rather than have a new Ipsos/Reuters thread every day?

If Sanders wins the nomination, it's going to be a hilarious race, mark my words.

Full Poll:

Clinton 39
Sanders 31
Biden 16
O'Malley 2
Cuomo 2
Chafee 1
Gillibrand 1
Webb <1

What is it with this polling of Cuomo and Gillibrand?

Good things about this poll: It's great to see Sanders only 8 points down. Also, this is our first poll that is mostly post Labor day, although it does include Labor day.

Bad things: not the best pollster, and a little odd that it already includes today.

It's very stupid and their inclusion probably hurts Clinton's numbers slightly.

With non-whites, it's

Clinton 42
Sanders 30
Biden 20

Trash it.

Reuters will update their 5-day rolling data each day and so, if the mods are ok with it, this thread will be updated each day with the new numbers.

GOP (last update: September 8.)

Trump 35%
Carson 12%
Bush 7%
Walker 5%
Cruz 5%
Huckabee 5%
Rubio 4%
Christie 4%
Paul 3%
Kasich 3%
Fiorina 2%
Santorum 2%
Jindal 1%
Gilmore 0%
Pataki 0%

DEM (last update: September 11)

Clinton 39%
Sanders 31%
Biden 16%
O'Malley 2%
Chafee 1%
Webb 0%

From the state-by-state filter, we can find some interesting numbers:

In California, Clinton leads Sanders 53-28. Biden gets 13.
In Florida, Clinton leads Biden 57-12. Sanders gets 8.
In Wisconsin, Clinton leads Sanders 42-40. Biden gets 11.

In Ohio, Kasich leads Trump 24-23.
In Texas, Trump leads Perry 21-16. Cruz gets 9 and performs worst than Bush and Kasich (both at 11)
In Florida, Trump leads Bush 40-31. Rubio gets 14.

Even though the tracking poll includes weekends, I guess they don't update it on weekends.

New #s:

GOP (last update: September 15)

Trump 33%
Carson 16%
Bush 9%
Huckabee 6%
Christie 6%
Cruz 5%
Walker 4%
Rubio 4%
Kasich 2%
Paul 2%
Fiorina 2%
Santorum 2%
Jindal 1%

DEM (last update: September 15):

Clinton 46%
Sanders 27%
Biden 16%
Webb 1%

Oddly, they already have data for today (it’s still only early afternoon!).  It’s a 5-day rolling average, so most of the data is pre-debate, but you can compare the small movements since two days ago to get trends since the debate:

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150914-20150918/collapsed/false)

Trump 38% (+2.0% since Wednesday)
Carson 13% (-1.6%)
Bush 10% (+1.0%)
Huckabee 7% (no change)
Cruz 5% (+0.1%)
Christie 5% (-0.2%)
Fiorina 4% (+2.3%)
Walker 3% (-1.1%)
Paul 3% (+0.2%)
Rubio 2% (-0.4%)
Kasich 2% (+0.3%)
Santorum 1% (-0.3%)
Pataki 1% (+0.1%)
Jindal 1% (-0.5%)
Graham 0% (-0.1%)

Because they're both obviously running, aren't they?

LOL @ Gillibrand challenging Hillary

Wow, Sanders has totally collapsed since last week in this poll. From only single digits behind Clinton to about twenty points behind!!

Geez, and that's including Biden!

Probably just moving out a bad simple.

I think it's hilarious that anti-Sanders posters are now hyping polls that include Biden where Sanders is at 25.2%. It's not too long ago that would have been considered an amazing poll for Sanders. As recently as August 27th, this daily tracking poll had never had Sanders that high.

We got the first Reuters poll after the debate.

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150915-20150922/collapsed/false

30.8 Trump
18.9 Carson
8.4 Bush
7.2 Fiorina*
5.5 Rubio
5.2 Cruz
4.0 Huckabee
2.6 Paul
2.6 Christie
2.5 Kasich
2.4 Walker

*Fiorina went up a lot since her 2 to 3% average pre debate.  Yesterday she is at 8.6% but going down, I guess the latest news affect voters.
*Rubio and Carson have increase since the debate also.
*Trump had peak to his highest (36.8) and went down, but all happened during the transition meaning some days before and some days after the debate due to 5 days rolling.

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150808-20150922/collapsed/false

Seems like Carson is "surging" thanks to his ignorant comments, Trump slipping.

I posted the percentage already.

But what you are saying is half true.  What is true is that he will rise in the poll or maintain his spot for his comment.  And that, the big gap (of 3%) between 9/21 and 9/22 does show that.

The half false is that do you know how Reuters work?  It is 5 days rolling.  His Muslim spotlight comment was on the 20th of September.  Prior to 9/22 poll #, he already heading up (from like 13% to 16%).  And for the 9/22 #, what that meant is that # is the data collected 9/18 to 9/22.  Presumably most people wouldn't know too much about the comment until the 21st.  So the latest % is collected with 3 days when people don't know about it, and 2 days of falling out media coverage after the event.

If you actually want to know the impact of the comment, you will have to wait until 9/25 poll #. 

Terrible news for GOP if TrumP is nominated. Good news for Dems because Dems have two candidates that can win.

Its TRUMP or Fiorina, who's casinos & compaq companies went into bankruptcy.

Here’s their last data release for last week (Sept. 19-23):

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=14901

Democrats

Clinton 40%
Sanders 30%
Biden 15%
Cuomo 2%
O’Malley 2%
Chafee, Gillibrand, Webb 0%

3-way:

Clinton 40%
Sanders 32%
Biden 19%

GOP

Trump 30%
Carson 18%
Bush 10%
Fiorina 8%
Rubio 6%
Cruz 5%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 3%
Kasich 3%
Gilmore 2%
Paul 2%
Walker 2%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham, Pataki 0%

3-way:

Trump 37%
Carson 35%
Bush 25%

The reports of Trump's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Someone should create a thread to collect all of the TRUMP IS FINISHED posts. They have all been DEAD WRONG.

Someone needs to shoot them for still including Cuomo and Gillibrand.

It's happening!!!!

Imagine how well Gilmore will be doing once he leaves his house.

It was updated again today.

Clinton 43.6
Sanders 28.0
Biden 16.8

Seriously Reuters, go home. You're drunk.

August 26th Clinton +27
August 29th Clinton +13
September 3rd Clinton +23
September 11th Clinton +8
September 17th Clinton +24
September 22nd Clinton +9
September 28th Clinton +21

What is this?

Paul is tied with Gilmore. That's gotta sting.

Not anymore.
http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150928-20150929/collapsed/false/chart/table

Latest GOP #s (through Sept. 29):

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150925-20150929/collapsed/false)

Trump 30%
Carson 13%
Fiorina 11%
Bush 10%
Paul 6%
Rubio 5%
Huckabee 5%
Cruz 5%
Christie 3%
Jindal 2%
Kasich 1%
Santorum 1%
Pataki, Graham, Gilmore 0%

Zogby style polling!

http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=14934
Well, Hillary actually leads by 21%....
Dems:
Clinton- 46%
Sanders- 25%
Biden- 19%
Chafee- 1%
Cuomo(?)- 1%
Gillibrand(??)- 1%
O'Malley - 1%
Webb - 0%

Republicans:
Trump- 32%
Carson- 12%
Bush- 10%   
Fiorina- 8%   
Paul- 7%   
Rubio- 7%
Christie- 5%   
Cruz- 5%   
Huckabee- 3%      
Santorum- 2%   
Gilmore- 1%   
Jindal- 1%   
Kasich- 1%   
Pataki- 0%   
Graham- 0%   
   

This poll has a lot less noise if you switch to it by the month.
Last month had 4690 responses (MOE is 1.4%)
Clinton 43.3
Sanders 27.2
Biden 15.9

Latest (through Oct. 6):

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR131/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151001-20151006/collapsed/false)

Dems

Clinton 45%
Sanders 27%
Biden 17%
O’Malley 2%
Chafee 1%
Webb, Gillibrand, Cuomo 0%

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151001-20151006/collapsed/false)

Republicans

Trump 33%
Carson 16%
Bush 16%
Rubio 7%
Fiorina 6%
Paul 5%
Cruz 4%
Huckabee 3%
Christie 3%
Kasich 1%
Jindal 1%
Gilmore, Graham, Pataki, Santorum 0%

#s for Oct. 3-7:

http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=14945

Dems

Clinton 44%
Sanders 27%
Biden 18%
O’Malley 2%
Chafee 1%

3-way:

Clinton 42%
Sanders 29%
Biden 23%
(Huh?  The exclusion of Chafee and O’Malley from the list causes Clinton voters to defect to Biden and Sanders?)

GOP

Trump 31%
Carson 17%
Bush 14%
Fiorina 7%
Rubio 7%
Paul 4%
Cruz 4%
Huckabee 4%
Christie 3%
Kasich 1%
Pataki, Gilmore, Jindal, Santorum, Graham 0%

3-way:

Trump 39%
Carson 32%
Bush 23%

Latest national polling trendlines:

()

()

For some reason the 3-way has a much smaller sample size.

It seems like both Clinton and Trumps support has leveled off for now.

Wow, some major fall for Hillary.
Oct 4: 51.1%
Oct 9: 40.9%

We have
Clinton 40.9
Sanders 27.6
Biden 20.0
O' Malley 2.6
Chafee 1.1

Also, did they take Webb out?

Yeah, not buying this.

We'll see if it is just a blip. I think the post debate polls will show a better picture of the race.

Bush is Back!

They already have the 5-day rolling average that includes the 16th, so this poll is at least 60% post-Democratic debate:

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR131/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151012-20151016/collapsed/false)

Dems

Clinton 52% (+5)
Sanders 27% (+3)
Biden 14% (-4)
O’Malley 2% (no change)
Chafee 1% (no change)

[#s in parentheses are comparing to the last purely pre-debate #s.]

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151012-20151016/collapsed/false)

GOP

Trump 33%
Carson 16%
Bush 10%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 7%
Fiorina 4%
Huckabee 4%
Christie 4%
Paul 3%
Kasich 2%
Gilmore 1%
Santorum 1%
Jindal 1%
Graham 0%

Hillary and Bernie both up, Biden down. Makes sense. He better get in soon.

The tracker showing Clinton at 41% was obviously an anomaly.

NBC has Biden down to 10%.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/20/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0SD2EJ20151020
Clinton 51%
Sanders 27%
Biden 13%

Its Reuters/Ipsos, Hillary up 10 from the last poll. Biden down 6.

In the tracking poll, Hillary's lead has decreased since the debate.

Oct 13:

Clinton 49.9
Sanders 22.6
Biden 16.3
O' Malley 1.3
Chafee 1.0

Oct 20:

Clinton 48.6
Sanders 25.9
Biden 14.5
O' Malley 1.0
Chafee 0.8

Five day rolling average through Oct. 20:

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR131/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151016-20151020/collapsed/false)

Dems

Clinton 49%
Sanders 26%
Biden 15%
O’Malley 1%
Chafee 1%

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151016-20151020/collapsed/false)

GOP

Trump 33%
Carson 16%
Bush 10%
Rubio 6%
Cruz 6%
Fiorina 5%
Huckabee 4%
Kasich 3%
Paul 3%
Jindal 2%
Christie 2%
Gilmore 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham 1%
Pataki 0%

Five day rolling average through Oct. 23:

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR131/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151019-20151023/collapsed/false)

Dems

Clinton 47%
Sanders 31%
Biden 11%
O’Malley 2%
Chafee 1%

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151019-20151023/collapsed/false)

GOP

Trump 32%
Carson 19%
Bush 9%
Rubio 6%
Fiorina 6%
Cruz 4%
Paul 4%
Kasich 3%
Huckabee 3%
Christie 2%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%
Pataki 1%
Graham 0%
Gilmore 0%

Without Biden, Hillary would lead about 54-33. Not that bad for Bernie, actually.

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151026-20151027/collapsed/false/chart/table

Average rolling (10/23-10/27)

Headline: Carson pull near Trump ahead of Debate

32.4 Trump
25.5 Carson

8.1 Bush
7.1 Rubio
4.9 Fiorina
4.5 Cruz
2.8 Paul
2.6 Christie
2.2 Kasich
2.2 Huckabee
0.9 Jindal
0.8 Pataki
0.5 Graham
0.4 Gilmore
0.1 Santorum

Headline: Clinton and Sanders gain after Biden bows out

53.7 Clinton
34.0 Sanders
01.7 O'Malley

Another poll show Carson surging.  I was correct when I said Trump was recovering and Carson is the one that surge.  On average it seemed, Carson is at an all time high from all of the polls and beyond what he got prior to his previous all time high pre second debate.

That's a record high for Bernie. He was never above 31% until the first poll that overlaps with this one (4 days ago).

Carson 33
trump 26

They have #s out now for Oct. 24-28 (so the last night of polling was the night of the debate), and it’s:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-23026
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15018

Dems

Clinton 53%
Sanders 33%
O’Malley 2%

GOP

Trump 29%
Carson 27%
Bush 9%
Rubio 6%
Cruz 5%
Fiorina 4%
Kasich 4%
Paul 3%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 2%
Graham 1%
Jindal 1%
Pataki 1%
Santorum, Gilmore 0%

3-way matchup:

Carson 40%
Trump 34%
Bush 21%

So Carson has made some pretty huge gains here of late.  He was trailing big in this poll just last week (not that I’m putting that much stock in this pollster).

Latest 5-day rolling average, covering Oct. 26-30 (meaning the sample is about half and half before and after the debate):

Dems

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR131/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151026-20151030/collapsed/false)

Clinton 51%
Sanders 32%
O’Malley 3%

GOP

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151026-20151030/collapsed/false)

Trump 30%
Carson 27%
Bush 10%
Rubio 7%
Fiorina 4%
Huckabee 3%
Cruz 3%
Kasich 3%
Paul 3%
Christie 2%
Jindal 2%
Graham 1%
Pataki, Santorum, Jindal 0%

Comparing to the last purely pre-debate sample, there’s virtually no change:

Huckabee +1.2%
Rubio +0.7%
Carson +0.5%
Bush +0.1%
Fiorina -0.2%
Cruz -0.4%
Trump -0.9%

For the Democrats, Wouldn't Vote has the Big Mo, going from 7.5% to 13.6% in 5 days. I assume this is supposed to be undecided, since there is no undecided option?

No one should take polls of "adults" seriously.

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151031-20151103/type/day

Carson dropped like 10 points in November.  Hmmm..

#s through Nov. 3:

Dems

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151031-20151103/type/day

Clinton 59%
Sanders 26%
O’Malley 6%

GOP

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151031-20151103/type/day

Trump 31%
Carson 19%
Bush 10%
Rubio 9%
Fiorina 6%
Cruz 6%
Christie 4%
Paul 3%
Kasich 3%
Huckabee 3%
Jindal 1%
Graham, Santorum, Pataki 0%

#s through Nov. 6:

Dems

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151102-20151106/type/day)

Clinton 58%
Sanders 29%
O’Malley 4%

GOP

link (http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151102-20151106/type/day)

Trump 28%
Carson 22%
Rubio 12%
Cruz 9%
Bush 7%
Fiorina 4%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 3%
Paul 2%
Kasich 2%
Pataki 1%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham 0%
Gilmore 0%

The lead narrows by 14 points in just one week.

Nov. 3
Clinton 59.0
Sanders 26.5
O'Malley 5.4

Nov. 10
Clinton 51.8
Sanders  33.3
O'Malley 3.6

It's NOT happening, remember when Clinton was down in the 40s in this poll? She spiked back up.

That was with Biden. This is the lowest she's been since they removed Biden.

Point is, this poll is bouncy. I wouldn't put much stock in it.

I know it bounces around some, but you can't directly compare polls with and without Biden.

On the Republican side, Jeb is now in 6th place. Fiornia just passed him.

Your really grasping at straws.

When polls had with and without Biden at the same time, Hillary usually did over 10 points better without Biden. So it's absolutely not grasping at straws.

Sorry hillbots but the election is gonna be closer then you think.

You're going off ONE variation of a bouncy poll. C'mon.

I am saying people need to accept all bouncy polls and not just the ones that favor clinton.

desperate Sanders fans are clinging to meaningless movements in low quality polls as their candidate's campaign comes crashing down nationally and in all the early states...

very sad

Actually, no. There's a reason why why bouncy polls are treated with a degree of skepticism.

Also, I love that a 14% swing in a week without any significant factor isn't a cause to question the poll... But it's good for Bernie so it must be legit. This is basic psephology.

Most of the tightening was since the Democratic forum on Friday.

We'll see

It will be amusing to come back to this thread after Iowa and see jfern's delusional ranting.

#Gilmorementum

()

I know these polls are sh**t, but the fact that Kasich is below Gilmore is really hilarious.

No some MSNBC thing that no one watched cause a fourteen-point surge for #BurnItDown

Five day rolling average through Nov. 10:

Dems

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151106-20151110/type/day

Clinton 52%
Sanders 33%
O’Malley 4%

GOP

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151106-20151110/type/day

Trump 30%
Carson 20%
Rubio 8%
Cruz 8%
Fiorina 6%
Bush 5%
Huckabee 4%
Christie 3%
Paul 2%
Kasich 2%
Gilmore 2%
Santorum 2%
Graham 1%
Jindal, Pataki 0%

OK, it was probably just too pro Hillary a week before. The CBS poll that just came out exactly agrees with Reuters now.

Five day rolling average through Nov. 13:

Dems

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151109-20151113/type/day

Clinton 56%
Sanders 31%
O’Malley 3%

GOP (change since the last purely pre-debate poll in parentheses)

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151109-20151113/type/day

Trump 34% (+3)
Carson 20% (-2)
Rubio 10% (+3)
Cruz 8% (no change)
Bush 6% (-2)
Huckabee 4% (no change)
Fiorina 4% (-1)
Paul 3% (no change)
Kasich 2% (no change)
Santorum 1% (-1)
Christie 1% (-1)
Jindal 1% (+1)
Graham 1% (no change)
Pataki 0% (no change)
Gilmore 0% (-2)

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0T22HB20151113
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151109-20151113/type/day

According to the five-day rolling Reuters/Ipsos presidential poll, Trump has leapt some 17 percentage points among likely Republican voters since Nov. 6, when he was essentially tied with Ben Carson at about 25 percent. Trump now captures 42 percent of those voters while Carson has fallen off slightly.

Despite receiving rave notices for his past two debate performance, Rubio’s support has remained flat, with about 10 percent of likely Republican primary voters preferring him.

#Trumpmentum

5 day rolling average ending on Nov. 18:

http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15090

Dems

Clinton 52%
Sanders 31%
O’Malley 4%

GOP

Trump 37%
Carson 14%
Rubio 11%
Cruz 8%
Bush 6%
Paul 5%
Huckabee 3%
Fiorina 3%
Christie 3%
Kasich 2%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham, Pataki, Gilmore 0%

3-way GOP matchup

Trump 43%
Carson 26%
Rubio 25%

Trendline of all national polls:

()

Oh man... lol...

The Republican race is now the closer one, LOL.

I think you meant that the other way around.

Ooops, yes.

Wow trump is crushing the GOP field.

Wow, 2 polls today with Hillary under 50%. NBC was the other one.

Nov 20.
Clinton 48.9
Sanders 34.0
O'Malley 3.7

The Republican side is much less close.
Trump 38.8
Carson 14.3
Rubio 11.1
Cruz 7.4
Bush 6.3
Paul 5.1
Huckabee 2.8
Fiornia 2.5
Christie 2.5
Kasich 2.5
Santorum 1.1
Jindal 0.5
Graham 0.5
Pataki 0.4
Gilmore 0.2


The are the 3 closest Democratic polls without Biden
This Reuter poll 49-34
IBD/TIPP poll from a couple weeks ago 49-34
NBC poll release today 49-33

Clinton is the opposite of Trump, where she does worse in the online polls (like Reuters and NBC/Survey Monkey)

Just online polls
()

Just phone polls (live and IVR/Automated)
()

Yeah, Wow...
I'll make sure to post when shes back up into the mid-50s by the middle of next week. Just like 10 days ago, the movement in these polls make them hard to take seriously.

Five day rolling average through Nov. 24:

Dems

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151120-20151124/type/day

Clinton 54%
Sanders 34%
O’Malley 5%

GOP (change since the last purely pre-debate poll in parentheses)

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151120-20151124/type/day

Trump 38%
Cruz 12%
Carson 12%
Rubio 8%
Bush 6%
Huckabee 3%
Kasich 3%
Fiorina 3%
Gilmore 3%
Paul 2%
Christie 2%
Pataki 1%
Santorum 0%

Gilmore rebound!

Wow thats a huge collapse for Carson.

5 day rolling average through Nov. 25:

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2015ReutersTrackingCorePolitical112515.pdf

Dems
Clinton 58%
Sanders 30%
O’Malley 6%

Republicans
Trump 37%
Cruz 11%
Rubio 10%
Carson 9%
Bush 6%
Christie 4%
Fiorina 3%
Huckabee 3%
Gilmore 3%
Kasich 3%
Paul 2%
Pataki 2%
Santorum, Graham 0%

3-way
Trump 46%
Rubio 25%
Carson 24%

It seems that some people, following the Paris attacks, went on Wikipedia and saw that Gilmore and Pataki were Governors of Virginia and New York (respectively) during 9/11.

Taking al the national pollsters together, here are live interview phone polls only:

()

And internet polls only:

()

It seems that ~10% of Republican voters support Carson on the phone and Trump on the internet.  :P

The tracking poll has different numbers. They're as of the 24th, and
Clinton 54.0
Sanders 34.0
O'Malley 4.6

Sample size is smaller than usual, 383.

Ipsos=/=Daily Tracking poll.

Im not sure why we have one thread for both of them since its two different pollsters. Ipsos is the better pollster according to fivethirtyeights ratings btw.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/27/us-election-trump-idUSKBN0TG2AN20151127#XfRs4ZLoBCdY0LL6.97

Trump   35
Carson  15
Rubio      8
Cruz        8
Bush       7

No, I believe it is the same pollster, doing an Ipsos/Reuters joint venture.  Look at the daily #s for Nov. 25th, and they match the #s from that Ipsos release.  The only difference is that the number of respondents is off by like 10 people or something, so maybe they use a slightly different filter, but otherwise it's the same.  Same deal if you look at their earlier releases.

5 day rolling average through Nov. 27:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151123-20151127/type/day

Dems

Clinton 57%
Sanders 30%
O’Malley 6%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151123-20151127/type/day

GOP

Trump 31%
Carson 15%
Rubio 8%
Cruz 8%
Bush 7%
Huckabee 5%
Kasich 5%
Christie 4%
Gilmore 3%
Paul 3%
Fiorina 2%
Pataki 2%

Look what happens when you turn off the Democratic filter.

Sanders 34.0
Clinton 32.0
O'Malley 6.0

LOL. Of course Bernie isn't actually ahead.

Uhmm....

I hate to break it to you, but this is the democratic primary. I.E a majority of the people voting in it will be democrats. And when I remove the filter it becomes this:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/dates/20151123-20151127/type/day

And when I filter it to only Republicans and Independents I get this:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:3|2

Neither show him ahead.

jfern being low energy.

Please, stop it. This poll is nonsense, of course, you were happy to champion it when goes rogue, but no one should take a poll this jumpy seriously.

I guess no one read the bolded sentence.

We all assumed you were being sarcastic.

Well I wasn't.

Like all junkes, this forum needs a poll fix bad. Right now we are searching couch cushions for leftover morsels

my sources tell me we're getting a real humdinger of a SHOCK POLL tomorrow, so stay tuned

What exactly are these sources saying?

A Quinnipiac poll showing Republicans beating Hillary nationally by 20+.

Or a PPP poll showing Clinton beating Sanders in New Hampshire by 15+.

That would be rather unsubtle of them. I'd assume PPP would want to have Hillary only doing 10 points better than the other polls.

Well, Quinnipiac has a national poll coming out in just over 6 hours.  That'll give us something to talk about for a while.

Wait... so.... that's not in bold. So you're being serious?

Do you mean the Quinnipiac national poll or PPP's NH poll ?

I guess Cruz is surging accross the board, but more so nationally than in NH ...

Five day rolling average through Dec. 1:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151127-20151201/type/day

Dems

Clinton 50%
Sanders 36%
O’Malley 4%

GOP

Trump 36%
Carson 17%
Bush 11%
Cruz 11%
Rubio 7%
Paul 4%
Huckabee 2%
Christie 2%
Fiorina 2%
Santorum 2%
Kasich 1%
Gilmore, Graham, Pataki 0%

Did anyone notice too that Trump and Sanders perform much better with online polls than telephone polls ?

Probably because they skew young. But those are usually not the people who are turning out later to vote.

Harry Enten just did an article (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-future-of-polling-may-depend-on-donald-trumps-fate/) about this on 538.

No, because all of these polls do some kind of demographic weighting.  It's got to be more a matter of "the type of person who answers these polls, after you control for age, sex, race, etc., is more likely to support X".

As for your first question, "Did anyone notice...?"  Yes, we've talked about it endlessly on this forum.  :P

Making a Jeb supporters day. Keep on keeping on, old buddy :'-)

Probably because some of their supportters don't wanna admit their admiration for These candidates in public/on the phone.

I strongly suspect it's more to do with the different methodologies having different levels of success in producing a random sample of voters.

anyone know a reason for this, or likely just oulier/MoE noise?

Well, it's Reuters.  They're not the best.

I don't have a real backed up reason, just speculation. Could be MoE as well. Jeb has been playing on the low and just getting out his campaign ground game campaigning lately and staying out of the noise, so he is slowly bumping back up small bits in a poll here and there. Never know I guess.

He's definitely dug a hole but he ought to play a sharp primary campaign from now on and kill the debates.

Sanders within 15%? Has that ever happened before post-Biden?

On Reuters I think so, but then it'll go to a 30% margin a couple of days later.

Reuters has been all over the place.

Internet polls are usually a good look at the opinions of people who are dumb enough to respond to pop-ups

On Reuters... so, it doesn't matter.

I miss last time, where Gallup had a daily GOP tracking poll that wasn't completely out of line with everything else, was not prone to random swings, and was actually quite useful.

Yeah, like two weeks ago.

Then Hillary opened up a 30 point lead 6 days later.

I'll wait until it doesn't include the Thanksgiving weekend to put much stock into this poll.

Five day rolling average through Dec. 4:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151130-20151204/type/day

Dems

Clinton 56%
Sanders 32%
O’Malley 4%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151130-20151204/type/day

GOP

Trump 35%
Carson 14%
Rubio 13%
Bush 10%
Cruz 8%
Paul 4%
Fiorina 3%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 2%
Kasich 2%
Gilmore 1%
Graham, Pataki, Santorum 0%

Reuters always seemed to favored Bush for some reason.

So much for Bernie's bump.

Reuters really seems to enjoy toying with the Sandernistas.

People actually take Reuters seriously? They constantly have wild swings for literally no reason, and included candidates who weren't running for like a year.

It's almost funny, if it weren't so sad. Every time Sanders is within 15%, they're all here, but then a few days later she's back to a 25%+ lead.

Thus confirming Reuters is even more of a joke.

You have to click on day for the 5 day average. These are the correct results for Dec. 4.
Clinton 51.9
Sanders 35.5
O'Malley 4.1


I'm not sure if it was a bug. But these seem to be the correct result. It might have been choosing some other time period before.

Anyways, this is the only post Thanksgiving weekend national poll we have so far.

Too bad your wrong.

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TR131/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20150901-20151204/collapsed/false/spotlight/1

This is what I get. Regardless, the website is awfull since the redesign and combined with the fact that they're a pretty awfull pollster in general(C from fivethirtyeight and wild swings), it makes me wish I could just ignore them completely. However, you make a big deal about any slight movement in Bernies favor and then vanish when Hillary opens up a 28 point lead. Its hard to take your input in this thread seriously.

Well Hillary has a 16.4 point lead, not a 28 point lead.

Thanks for making his point.

Hillary had a 27 point lead last week and 28 point lead a week or so before that. Jfern, if you dont get it I was referring to the 28 point lead in past and more than likely future tense.

Five day rolling average through Dec. 11:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151207-20151211/type/day

Dems

Clinton 61%
Sanders 27%
O’Malley 4%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151207-20151211/type/day

GOP

Trump 35%
Carson 12%
Rubio 11%
Cruz 10%
Bush 8%
Christie 5%
Fiorina 4%
Huckabee 3%
Santorum 2%
Paul 2%
Graham 2%
Kasich 1%
Pataki 1%
Gilmore 0%

Oh Jfern, I've got something to show you...

Don't worry, in 5-10 days it will show again a 15 point race and jfern will FEEL THE BERN!!!

Clinton leading by 35 points lol

Looks like junk when compared to the other polls.

^

Too bad you are a complete hack...yes bernie is down by around 15-20 points but not 35....any sane person would call this an outlier.

Ah Reuters...

Trusted them in the beginning of the campaign more but their swings on the Democratic side especially are insane.

OK, Reuters has jumped the shark.

Here are the last 10 polls. The actually reputable ones tend to have Hillary with a 18-21 point lead.

NBC/WSJ Hillary +19
Ipsos/Reuters Hillary +26
YouGov/Economist  Hillary +21
Gravis Marketing/One America News Hillary +32
CBS/Times    Hillary +20
Morning Consult    Hillary +29
Public Religion Research Institute Hillary +21
Suffolk/USA Today Hillary +27
IBD/TIPP Hillary +18
Ipsos/Reuters  Hillary +15

No one takes this seriously other than jfern when it shows good numbers for Sanders.

Um looks like Clinton supporters do the same thing.

No, they're just trying to prove a point to jfern.

Five day rolling average through Dec. 18:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151214-20151218/type/day

Dems

Clinton 57%
Sanders 32%
O’Malley 4%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151214-20151218/type/day

GOP

Trump 31%
Cruz 17%
Carson 13%
Rubio 8%
Bush 7%
Huckabee 5%
Fiorina 4%
Paul 4%
Christie 3%
Kasich 2%
Graham 1%
Pataki, Santorum 0%

Even they’ve given up on including Gilmore in their polls.

Thank god Rubiomentum (hopefully) won't stay

You mean you aren't feel the Rubes?

Yet they included Cuomo and Gillibrand for like 6 months after they endorsed Hillary.

Trump: 39%
Cruz: 13%
Carson: 10%
Rubio: 9%
Bush: 7%
Christie: 3%
Huckabee: 3%
Santorum: 3%
Kasich: 2%
Fiorina: 2%
Paul: 2%

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2015ReutersTrackingCorePolitical122315.pdf

Wow. This lead over the next 3 is even bigger and classier than his monstrous lead in the CNN/ORC poll.

RIP GOP-establishment.

Trump far in the lead, Huckabee and Santorum possibly surging. God has abandoned us.

Carson at 10%, btw.

That belt speech did a number on him. Just goes to show the power of Trump.

fixed.

Great news!

GOP:
Trump-39
Cruz-14
Rubio-12
Carson-12
Bush-6
(Wouldn't vote)-5
Paul-4
Fiorina-2
Huckabee-2
Christie-2
Santorum-1
Kasich-1
Gilmore-*

DEM:
Clinton-56
Sanders-32
(Wouldn't vote)-9
O'Malley-3

source: http://polling.reuters.com

Reuters also did a general election matchup poll ( Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton)
Clinton-38
Trump-32
Other/Wouldn't vote/refuse-31

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/ TM651Y15_13/type/smallest/dates/20151201-20151229/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

Even if you filter to likely general election voters, it's 22% other. Seems pretty junky.

Rasmussen had a similar result....seems like a lot of people dislike both, which would be supported by most people if asked.

This is the s*** that people can pull early in the season. Like all GE polling, it means nothing at this point.

There are no likely general election voters at this point.

So trump losing to both Sanders and Clinton in general polls is gonna change?

It might, it might not.

So why discredit GE polls now if they might not change?

GE polling is useless now, sure, but it's a great fundraising pitch if you're in first.

Because I've followed a lot of campaigns and know that overall GE position means virtually nothing this far out.

Five day rolling average through Dec. 31 (yes, they were polling on New Year’s Eve):

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151227-20151231/type/day

Dems

Clinton 56%
Sanders 33%
O’Malley 3%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151227-20151231/type/day

GOP

Trump 36%
Cruz 15%
Rubio 12%
Carson 12%
Bush 6%
Paul 3%
Huckabee 2%
Christie 2%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 1%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore, Pataki 0%

OK, so they are still polling Gilmore after all?

Reuters overestimated Clinton's lead.

Polling on New Year's Eve, wow.

Very, very disrespectful.

Polling on New Year's Eve could lead to an oversampling of loners with nothing to do.  :P

I don't know, Gilmore and Pataki were still at 0%.

I see what you did there :)

Reuters 12/31-1/4
Trump 41.7
Cruz 13.7
Carson 10.6
Rubio 8.2
Bush 8.1
Christie 3.2
Paul 2.6
Huckabee 2.2
Fiorina 1.3
Wouldn't vote 6.7

So many things wrong with this...

> Carson ahead of Rubio
> Jeb almost equal to Rubio
> Huckabee ahead of Fiorina
> Cruz at 14
> Trump at 42

TRUMP AT 42?!

THE SILENT MAJORITY IS NOT SO SILENT ANYMORE!

Five day rolling average through Jan. 8:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20160104-20160108/type/day

Dems

Clinton 55%
Sanders 33%
O’Malley 4%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20160104-20160108/type/day

GOP

Trump 41%
Cruz 16%
Carson 13%
Bush 8%
Rubio 8%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 2%
Paul 2%
Fiorina 2%
Kasich 1%
Gilmore, Santorum 0%

JEB SURGING

TRUMP 39
Cruz 15
Bush 11
Carson 10
Rubio 7

YOU CAN'T EBB THE JEB

I'm wondering if this polling bump for Sanders is just statistical noise. Some polls aren't showing it at all, while others with questionable records have been posting obvious outlier numbers.

Isn't Reuters the least trusted of them all?

What polls haven't shown it other than this one and Gravis Marketing?

FOX. I guess we will have to see what DMR/Selzer has to say tomorrow.

Even Fox showed a 7 point swing towards Sanders.

I don't think Reuters or Gravis are very trustworthy.

Five day rolling average through Jan. 15:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20160111-20160115/type/day

Dems

Clinton 51%
Sanders 37%
O’Malley 4%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20160111-20160115/type/day

GOP

Trump 38%
Cruz 17%
Bush 9%
Carson 8%
Rubio 8%
Christie 4%
Huckabee 3%
Fiorina 2%
Paul 2%
Kasich 2%
Santorum 2%
Gilmore 1%

MOST RECENT POLL: 0%
INFINITY PERCENT INCREASE
GILMENTUM IS REAL

Trendline of national polls from all pollsters:

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Wow the Dem numbers on here finally tightened up!

Of course. Reuters took note of other pollsters finding tend X, so they didn't wanna be the black sheep. So they magically dropped Hillary's lead in a heart beat.

Drudge link as of 1/16/16 @ 7:39 PST

GOP

Trump 40.2%
Cruz 15.0%
Carson 12.0%
Bush 8.2%
Rubio 7.0%
Christie 3.3%
Fiorina 2.8%
Paul 2.6%
Huckabee 2.3%
Kasich 1.6%
Santorum 0.4%
Gilmore 0.0%

No one 4.6%

Link?  Because I don't see those numbers.

Something very odd going on in the GOP tracking for Jan 19...

What if this is all of those prognostications and rumors come to pass?

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151204-20160119/collapsed/false/spotlight/1

LOL Reuters

Cruz......29%
Trump......23%
Jeb......14%
Rubio......12%
Carson......8%

Trump 35  Cruz 20 Bush 10 Rubio 10

Even Jeb! being at 10% nationally (and tied for first amongst Establishment candidates) would be noteworthy, even if from a crappy pollster.

yeah wtf just happened

I filtered for 1/15-1/19, and Republican Adults which is what has being use
. Trump down 3, Cruz up 3...

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151001-20160119/type/day

Here's 1/19 isolated

I see TRUMP leading 35-15?

Weird error on website.   Dates after 1/15 seem incomplete.

You can't ebb the Jeb.

Yea, it's no longer showing that error.

Not to sound conspiratorial or like a poll truther, but could this be evidence of pollsters continuing to change their results to resemble the polling averages? I know that was a fairly large controversies.

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New Reuters Poll! Thank you!


Marco down to 5th!

Rubio in fifth! Beautiful!

Man, I know this is a pretty sketchy poll, but if this is correct Cruz is completely in freefall.

Never mind. Junk poll.

45%?!?! Ugh. Whenever I see that he's that close to majority support, even in a junk poll, I throw up a little in my mouth.

:( :( :( :( :(

Please, stop Trump.  I'm so sick of this.

Any other candidate would be just fine with me.  Any of them!

I'd be tempted to vote for Clinton, to be honest.  No way for Sanders though.

Five day rolling average through Jan. 22:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20160118-20160122/type/day

Dems

Clinton 55%
Sanders 36%
O’Malley 3%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20160111-20160115/type/day

GOP

Trump 41%
Cruz 11%
Carson 10%
Bush 9%
Rubio 7%
Christie 5%
Paul 3%
Kasich 3%
Fiorina 3%
Huckabee 2%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore 0%

Five day rolling average through Jan. 29:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20160125-20160129/type/day

Dems

Clinton 50%
Sanders 40%
O’Malley 3%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20160125-20160129/type/day

GOP

Trump 42%
Cruz 13%
Carson 11%
Rubio 10%
Bush 7%
Paul 3%
Kasich 3%
Christie 2%
Fiorina 2%
Huckabee 2%
Santorum 1%
Gilmore 0%

Uh, did Reuters not release polling numbers for today?

Conducted Feb. 2-5 following the Iowa caucus:

48% Hillary
45% Bernie

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSMTZSAPEC253J02S1

Five day rolling average through Feb. 5:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20160201-20160205/type/day

Dems

Clinton 50%
Sanders 43%
O’Malley 1%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20160201-20160205/type/day

GOP

Trump 39%
Cruz 17%
Rubio 13%
Carson 8%
Bush 6%
Christie 4%
Kasich 3%
Fiorina 2%
Paul 1%
Huckabee 1%
Santorum, Gilmore 0%

So, the numbers you posted were 5 days and the ones from the article only the last 4 days ?

Jan. 1 was a big Clinton day it seems and the dropoff made it closer.

The Clinton collapse continues.

Why are we not using the "Likely" voter filter for these results? It makes no sense to post polling numbers for people deemed to not be likely voters.

Could do so, as primary day is getting close in most of the country now.  Though the sample appears to be tiny with LVs, so MoE is huge.  Looks like for the Dems, the sample of likely voters is only about 200.

I say we post sets of numbers both with and without the 'likely' filter.

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016ReutersTrackingPolitical21016.pdf

Ipsos/Reuters national poll (Feb. 6-10)

Trump 35 (-1)
Cruz 23 (+7)
Rubio 14 (0)
Carson 11 (+3)
Bush 7 (0)

Timber!

Your results are just of Republicans.  If you include Independents, which some states allow to vote in primaries, it's:

Trump 32%
Cruz 19%
Carson 11%
Rubio 11%
Bush 7%
Christie 3%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 2%
Wouldn't Vote 12%

It's a poll of 737 registered voters, taken from February 6-10.

The change since last poll numbers I added were actually incorrect, my bad. It's actually:

Clinton - 46% (-1)
Sanders - 44% (+6)

Also, these include Independents.

Clinton: 55
Sanders: 43

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Those numbers only include Democrats.

No, those are the actual Ipsos numbers.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-23740

We both posted Ipsos numbers. These are just Democrats, while mine are Democrats and Independents.

If the New Hampshire primary had only included Democrats, Sanders would have won by 4% instead of 22%+.

But Reuters doesn't narrow it down to "independents who plan to vote in the Democratic primary" or even "Democratic-leaning independents." It's just "independents." Which includes tons of right wingers who have no intention of voting in a Democratic primary. Typical from incompetent Reuters. That's probably why Pollster only uses the numbers among Democrats.

Also, there are a lot of closed primaries/caucuses.

I don't think Reuters polled New Hampshire, so I am not sure how you can compare it.

I don't understand.

I used the most recently published pdf on HuffPost Pollster. Reuters is confusing since they have tracking polls as well as periodically published articles.
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2016Reutersipsos.pdf

Well, a poll that includes only registered Democrats is even less helpful since many of the primaries and caucuses are open or semi-open.

Ah, okay I see my confusion.  The previous pdf was published pre-Iowa, but Tender's post was using the numbers post Iowa.

And I'm not terribly discouraged by them...

Great numbers for Sanders! As much as democrats don't like counting independants they are going to vote for the one that isn't bought.

http://m.dailykos.com/story/2016/2/12/1484385/-Bernie-Surges-12-Clinton-Falls-11-in-Reuters-LV-Tracking-Poll-Sanders-Gains-13-With-Af-Ams
Reuters’ “likely democratic primary voter” screen excludes all self-identified independents, even though self identified independents made up about 24% of the electorate in the 2008 primaries. Even in a state with ultra-closed primaries like New York, exit polls say that self-identified Independents made up 12% of the electorate (with another 1% self-identified Republicans).

This is what the data in the polls say -

Sanders Gains 12% Nationally
Clinton looses 11% Nationally
Total Swing - 20%
Clinton leads Sanders by 8%

African Americans
Sanders Gains 13%
Clinton Looses 11%
Total Swings - 24%
Clinton leads 21%

Don't know how authentic but these are great numbers for Bernie, huge improvement & this does not consider independents. With independents, imagine what the figure would look like

Clinton 54
Sanders 46

Among Blacks :
Clinton 58
Sanders 37

If this is anywhere near the reality, the race just went full Tossup, and Clinton will soon be facing the "2008 all over again" narrative. She needs to win SC big.

What's a big win in SC?  I think if Sanders keeps it to within 15% that he walks away relatively unscathed and it's off to Super Tuesday to make a run at Texas.

Amazing numbers for Sanders if true. With Sanders lead among whites this could change everything.

Bernie leads women 51.0-40.6!

LOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!

As if that isn't enough evidence that this poll is nonsense. But you'll grasp at whatever straws you can.

At least you have Reuters to cling to. Good for you.

I don't actually think Bernie has a double digit lead with women. But still cool.

Reuters won't help you in South Carolina.

Looks like Clinton is collapsing.

Sanders 47%
Clinton 44%

Isn't that an old poll?

Reuters was a joke when Hillary was leading and it still is now.

New polls Feb. 20-24 (still with Mr. Low-energy). http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-23865

TRUMP: 42%
Cruz: 22%
Rubio: 13%
Kasich: 8%
Carson: 8%
¿Jeb?: 3%
Wouldn't vote: 4%


Hillary: 49%
Bernie: 44%
Wouldn't vote: 7%

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20160201-20160329/collapsed/false/spotlight/1 (http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20160201-20160329/collapsed/false/spotlight/1)

probably some minor blip but the gap has not been this close in awhile.

It wouldn't surprise me if it was true, but Reuters is garbage.

ummmmm, this is either a massive glitch or trump is massively collapsing.

http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM764BY15 (http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM764BY15)

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Meanwhile Hillary surges to a 55-41 lead on the Dem side of the tracker

I know it is Reuters but Cruz has the lead in the three-way race now....

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20160101-20160405/type/day

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-extends-his-lead-over-ted-cruz-and-john-kasich-in-national-poll-2016-4?IR=T