Talk Elections

Florida

Bush: 49%
Clinton: 38%

Rubio: 51%
Clinton: 39%

Trump: 43%
Clinton: 41%

Bush: 51%
Biden: 38%

Rubio: 48%
Biden: 42%

Biden: 45%
Trump: 42%

Bush: 54%
Sanders: 35%

Rubio: 52%
Sanders: 36%

Trump: 45%
Sanders: 41%

Clinton: 37%
Bush: 36%
Trump: 19%

Ohio

Clinton: 41%
Bush: 39%

Rubio: 42%
Clinton: 40%

Clinton: 43%
Trump: 38%

Biden: 42%
Bush: 39%

Biden: 42%
Rubio: 41%

Biden: 48%
Trump: 38%

Bush: 42%
Sanders: 36%

Rubio: 42%
Sanders: 34%

Sanders: 42%
Trump: 40%

Clinton: 37%
Bush: 27%
Trump: 23%

Pennsylvania

Bush: 43%
Clinton: 40%

Rubio: 47%
Clinton: 40%

Clinton: 45%
Trump: 40%

Bush: 43%
Biden: 42%

Rubio: 44%
Biden: 41%

Biden: 48%
Trump: 40%

Bush: 44%
Sanders: 36%

Rubio: 45%
Sanders: 33%

Sanders: 44%
Trump: 41%

Clinton: 37%
Bush: 29%
Trump: 24%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2271

Would you say that Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy?

Florida
yes 32%
no 64%

Ohio
yes 34%
no 60%

Pennsylvania
yes 32%
no 63%

These are nonsense polls.

Quinnipiac showed Clinton struggling even when she was soaring everywhere else. So these results aren't really surprising.

Sauce? Or do you just not like the results?

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Friendly reminder to Democrats: Quinnipiac never showed Hillary weak in Florida.
Their numbers from June:

Probably closer to this:.

PA

Clinton 41
JEB 39

OH
JEB 43
CLINTON 41

FL
JEB 43
CLINTON 39

Clinton will win Pa v OH/FL her polls fell among working class whites

Yep, pigs have flown. OC has given a semi-reasonable analysis

Biden is doing better than Hillary in these polls.

Its plausible the Republicans are leading in Pennsylvania.  Its not plausible that Pennsylvania is suddenly much more Republican than Ohio.

Biden is from Scanton, Pa, it will be solid D when he gets in, I hope.

Clinton can win without Florida. She can win without Ohio. She cannot win without Pennsylvania. If Rubio wins the Romney states + FL + OH + PA, he'll be the next president. Terrible numbers for her.

Solid analysis?? He just unskewed numbers by making up things in his head that seemed more likely to fit his narrative.


Yes, Scranton - the large swath of influence the Democrats struggle to bring home. That will massively affect the outcome.

Even if the Ohio or Pennsylvania #s here are totally wrong, and you assume that Clinton is really leading in one of them in a hypothetical matchup with Rubio, he doesn't need both.  The latest polls have him ahead of Clinton in Colorado and Virginia, and narrowly ahead in North Carolina.  So with Florida plus one of either OH or PA, he breaks 270 electoral votes.

But that is of course in a hypothetical fantasy world in which he faces off against her today.  The general election isn't being held today, and Rubio is a long way off from being the Republican nominee.

Well I like these polls! Hillary doesn't seem that inevitable by the looks of them.

These are very hard to believe. They should certainly add fuel to the "Run Biden Run" fire though.

True.  I have a reflexive habit of not taking polls showing Clinton down very seriously, but maybe I should change that.

Wow, another Quinnipiac poll contradicting everyone else.

Hillary is only trailing candidates who are not currently doing well in Republican primary polling, so any excitement is pretty much moot.

Everything is hard to believe for some reason yet both PPP and Quinnipaic show Clinton down in Pennsylvania and not doing well in other states.

The only numbers that could be a stretch would be the Florida numbers for certain.

Bush and Rubio are leading way outside of the MOE in FL. Remember when Florida was considered a solid blue state with Hillary on top of the ticket? People need to stop saying that she's a better fit for the South when she isn't.


Well, the Fox poll showed Rubio and Bush up by 2. Seems to be in line with this poll.

Btw: Don't want to sound like a red avatar here, but the PA sample seems to be way too Republican.

2012                             This sample

45% Democrats            33% Democrats
35% Republicans          33% Republicans
78% White                    88% White
13% Black                       9% Black

(Same is true for OH and FL - though to a lesser extent)

CLINTON isnt losing Pa, the election would be over if so. QU always shows a GOP bias in Pa & CO. Lets wait for a real PPP in both states. Im assuming they still have Dems far behind Toomey, and Strickland running away with senate seat. Which isnt probable.

Yeah, I know. Quinnipiac polls shouldn't even be listed on the table here, nor should Gravis. Especially after that Wisconsin poll that came out today that contradicts everything Quinnipiac says.

Not until the matter of the e-mails is resolved.  These show how Hillary Clinton will be perceived if she is shown to be a wrong-doer  with respect to the e-mails.  These polls say how she is seen in late August 2015. FoX News is making every possible mention of the e-mails.

If nothing is shown to be wrong and the public has no perception of a cover-up, or that people have forgotten the issue, then these polls become irrelevant.  Not wrong -- just irrelevant.

I am in no position to predict how the matter will be resolved. The only prediction that I can make is that by November 2016 people will have more pressing concerns, like foreign policy and the economy.

I thought it was pretty much proven she didn't do anything wrong in this "scandal."

Not on FoX "News". I'm surprised that the hidden e-mails aren't about her participation in a witches' coven in which the witches cast aborted fetuses into a cauldron -- at least in the universe of FoX "News".

She will not lose PA to Jeb Bush or any of these other characters. SW PA has trended with WV as it is exactly the same culturally and so forth, but that's not enough to flip the state or even make it a toss-up. The eastern part of the state is growing, the western part of the state is in decline, and the areas to the east are not going to pick Jeb or whoever over her. It's to her what AZ is to the GOP.

This is largely her own doing, because she keeps ignoring questions about the server scandal.

No. If you are explaining you are losing.

Leave it up to the people who can investigate it properly.

...If we believe Quinnipiac, then the Republican  steamroller of 2016 is preparing to crush American liberalism once and for all and establish the Christian and Corporate State.

No, just not a landslide election, as everyone thought it would, a duplicate 2012 map. A 270 map or 272 that Nate Silver always said would be.

These states are all about turnout. 2010/2014 electorates ensure Republican victories in all three states. 2008/2012 electorates ensure Democratic wins of about everything up for grabs except for gerrymandered House of Representatives.

Is Quinnipiac the new Gravis?

That word in bold is why many folks, dare I use the word, find your little analyses annoying. Btw, in my universe Florida is about even in PVI, so assuming you think PVI has some use at all, what that means is that you're saying the Pubs might as well not bother contesting the Presidency anymore. Resistance is futile. In fact, all the Pubs should register as Dems, so that way, odds are a moderate Dem will be POTUS. That is sort of the way NY is going. Registering Pub is an act of "disenfrancisement" basically, unless you have a patronage job in a Pub controlled jurisdiction, where being of the party in power is a condition of employment.

Oh, gerrymandering might be worth about 15 seats net for the Pubs, but I digress.  Unless you mean gerrymandering in favor of the Dems is the only kind of map that is not gerrymandering, because you need to gerrymander in favor of the Dems, to correct for the geographic packing of Dems in the inner portions of large metro areas.

Sigh.

My guess of statewide PVI in those three states:

FL R+2
OH R+1
PA  D+3

Dems arent losing Pa. In a PVI of  D 3

PA's PVI is D+1 according to Cook.

Cook PVI, by state

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90% saturation for D+15 or R+15 or greater
70% saturation for 12 to 14, inclusively  
50% saturation for 10 or 11, inclusively
40% saturation for 6 to 9, inclusively
30% saturation for 3 to 5, inclusively
20% saturation for 1 or 2, inclusively  
white -- zero PVI

That looks like a pretty swingy map, with nothing ensured for either side. In a tie election for the PV one would expect 272D, 253R and VA(13) up for grabs. A two point swing either way would shift the map from D332-206 to R332-206. Other than a slight bias for Dems in a perfectly even election, any small swing in PV will easily give the WH to either party.

These PVIs makes since in a typical election year. But Biden or Trump electablity is different. Biden obviously will do better in Va and OH, while Clinton will only reinforce the 272 map.

Yes she will she have done typically well in CO, NV  & Pa in PPP. QUhas a GOP bias in Pa, CO.

But who cares, if Trump is nominated, he will 2:1 lose Latino vote solidifying 272 anyways

The electoral college vote actually correlates well to the popular vote. This is a graph I posted in 2009 from the 20 most recent presidential contests through 2008. It compares the Pub EVs to the fractional difference in PV between the Pub and the Dem (percent divided by 100). If there is more than two percent difference between the candidates the debate about swing states probably won't matter much.

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It will make zero difference

I looked at the PA sample, and...yeesh. 86% white, huh? Maybe in 1992.

Well Toomey is well ahead of Sestak and Portman is tied at best with Strickland. Reverse coatails?

The Dem party in PA is in big trouble. They have big corruption problems. Could be a backlash

The GOP in TX has big corruption problems; will there be a backlash there?

Dems in IL have big(ger) corruption problems than the IL GOP. Are they also done?

New Jersey?
New York?

Loving the electable candidate! Losing PA (A State that has gone Democratic since '88)  to all new-comers! (Except for Trump of course)

TBF, the polling here seems a bit off, I can't really see a Republican pulling 47-40 over Clinton... But you never know.