Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: pbrower2a on August 27, 2015, 10:24:30 AM



Title: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on August 27, 2015, 10:24:30 AM
Starting over due to maps involving non-existent polls on the earlier thread.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: 5280 on August 27, 2015, 11:02:33 AM
How the hell is Jeb Bush that popular in Colorado? Can't stand the guy myself.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on August 27, 2015, 11:43:15 AM
How the hell is Jeb Bush that popular in Colorado? Can't stand the guy myself.

Aging poll. Colorado will likely be polled again fairly soon. Q shows a nationwide trend away from just about every Republican in nationwide match-ups this week. Polls in two swing states (NH, VA) show an anti-GOP trend.

I have recently seen "Establishment" Republicans fade as more populist (but just-as-right-wing) Republicans seem to inspire Republicans. But know well: the upcoming Presidential race, which began as incredibly boring and predictable has become anything but that.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Senator Cris on August 27, 2015, 11:47:07 AM
I'd suggest to drop Huckabee and replace him with Kasich.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Tender Branson on August 27, 2015, 12:29:29 PM
Hey pbrower,

I just stickied your new thread and unstickied the old one.

An advice:

Instead of posting a new reply all the time with new maps, please just edit the original post every time from now on and change the maps there.

If you post new maps all the time, it becomes unreadable and way toooooo long.

Thx.

(PS: please include ALL polls in the future and not just the ones you like)


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on August 27, 2015, 03:17:53 PM
Hey pbrower,

I just stickied your new thread and unstickied the old one.

An advice:

Instead of posting a new reply all the time with new maps, please just edit the original post every time from now on and change the maps there.

If you post new maps all the time, it becomes unreadable and way toooooo long.

Thx.

(PS: please include ALL polls in the future and not just the ones you like)

Thank you.

The alternative could be to change maps once a week and show only the polls until I change the map. I might put up a new map in the event that some pollster offers polling data for multiple states (as Quinnipiac often does with CO/IA/VA or FL/OH/PA). There have been others to do so (Big 10 Polls, Marist, Siena).

...I try to avoid including polls that come from special-interest groups, ideologically-charged think tanks, political parties, trade associations, unions, and ethnic-advocacy groups. Those that have poor reputations -- like getting prior elections really wrong -- might be inapt. (I think of Rocky Mountain Polling, which late in the 2012  election projected Obama winning Arizona, or Susquehanna in Pennsylvania). A poll that has a close result and over 15% undecided is unreliable enough to avoid. I don't want any 39-37 polls, as I saw by a college in Tennessee one year... in case you forget what the poll said, Obama was in the lead, and he didn't get much more than the 39% that the poll said that he would get.  

I do not want polls that stand to blow up in our faces. We are going to see events shape the races -- maybe an international event, a scandal, or a financial panic.  

I also have five maps of Clinton-vs.-Republican match-ups. I'm still contemplating which map of match-ups to drop so that I can have a neater set of maps to display.

A suggestion: would you promptly delete any post that offers a non-existent or joke poll?      


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on August 27, 2015, 11:01:31 PM

West Virginia, Orion Polling.

If in the 2016 General Election for President, your choices were Hillary Clinton and a Republican candidate, for whom would you vote?

Clinton: 26%
Republican candidate: 58%

In the 2016 General Election for President, would you likely vote for a Democratic or Republican Candidate?

Democratic: 28%
Republican: 52%

If in the 2016 General Election for President, your choices were Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?

Clinton: 30%
Trump: 53%
Undecided: 17%

http://www.statejournal.com/story/29892754/survey-wv-residents-likely-to-pick-trump-over-clinton-in-2016

Who are these guys?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on August 27, 2015, 11:11:11 PM
So you won't include the WV poll?


A common WV pollster with a good track record.
Also,
>including Roanoke
>not including Orion

Try again. The 60% blue display on the Clinton-Trump map is no mistake.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on August 27, 2015, 11:17:59 PM
I apologize. No, seriously. I forgot that you're just editing the original post every time from now on. Sorry.

But still, this is a common WV pollster with a decent track record.

I was going to wait until Wednesday to show any new polls. But I could edit the Clinton-Trump map  to remove the numbers of electoral votes and add in a shade for West Virginia to prove someone wrong about my bias.

It might be tempting when a state not recently polled appears. I would do that for Georgia.   


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on August 28, 2015, 09:16:44 AM
I apologize. No, seriously. I forgot that you're just editing the original post every time from now on. Sorry.

But still, this is a common WV pollster with a decent track record.

I intend to show new maps, ideally weekly, to show the 'evolution' of the 2016 Presidential campaign. I think that worth showing. The point is that the old maps will remain. Those could show trends and the consequences of events, gaffes, and blunders.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: / on August 28, 2015, 06:44:24 PM
Great work, but these poll maps just exemplify how inaccurate polling can be. Like seriously, who actually expects Clinton to lose PA but win FL?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on August 29, 2015, 10:47:01 AM
I apologize. No, seriously. I forgot that you're just editing the original post every time from now on. Sorry.

But still, this is a common WV pollster with a decent track record.

I was going to wait until Wednesday to show any new polls. But I could edit the Clinton-Trump map  to remove the numbers of electoral votes and add in a shade for West Virginia to prove someone wrong about my bias.

It might be tempting when a state not recently polled appears. I would do that for Georgia.   

This is off-topic, but you can't be surprised that people call you a hack when you're convinced that Roy Blunt is toast in 2016 but Michael Bennet is going to win easily because it's a presidential year, even though his approval ratings are about the same as Blunt's.

Roy Blunt looks like toast with an approval rating in the 30s even if he is in Missouri. The  most recent poll showed Bennett with an approval rating in the high 40s, which is usually good enough for getting re-elected. Blunt needs miracles to get re-elected in a state with some competitiveness in a Presidential year that so far looks favorable to a high turnout.

People get called hacks when they say things completely absurd and with a partisan bias. They also get called hacks when they say defensible (if uncertain) things wit a semblance of partisan bias.     


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: MT Treasurer on August 29, 2015, 01:24:50 PM
I apologize. No, seriously. I forgot that you're just editing the original post every time from now on. Sorry.

But still, this is a common WV pollster with a decent track record.

I was going to wait until Wednesday to show any new polls. But I could edit the Clinton-Trump map  to remove the numbers of electoral votes and add in a shade for West Virginia to prove someone wrong about my bias.

It might be tempting when a state not recently polled appears. I would do that for Georgia.    

This is off-topic, but you can't be surprised that people call you a hack when you're convinced that Roy Blunt is toast in 2016 but Michael Bennet is going to win easily because it's a presidential year, even though his approval ratings are about the same as Blunt's.

Roy Blunt looks like toast with an approval rating in the 30s even if he is in Missouri. The  most recent poll showed Bennett with an approval rating in the high 40s, which is usually good enough for getting re-elected.

Not if you're Pat Toomey, right? Also, Michael Bennet is polling worse than Mark Udall did at this stage of the 2014 election cycle. (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/aug/12/michael-bennet-polling-worse-did-mark-udall-colora/)


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on August 29, 2015, 09:57:37 PM

Utah, Salt Lake City Tribune/Brigham Young University

Quote
5.  If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and
the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and
Donald Trump, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Donald Trump
662 54%
Hillary Clinton
560 46%

.....

Utah is profoundly conservative. 58% of Utah voters consider themselves "conservative". But know well: the powerful LDS Church is strong enough to break a Republican candidacy. Not a Mormon, I cannot predict what the LDS hierarchy would do if Trump were the GOP nominee. I doubt that it would give a sympathetic endorsement to him.

Democrats can call Donald Trump for his involvement with gambling casinos... which also imply smoking, liquor, bawdy shows, and even prostitution, all of which offend Mormon sensibilities.

Maybe this is not so ridiculous as it seems if it were a generic Republican against a generic Democrat.  Trump has baggage, and this baggage is not the sort that a bellhop delivers to a room.

http://www.sltrib.com/home/2878985-155/new-poll-says-donald-trump-would

... This poll looks really bad for Donald Trump. I do not know whether this data applies only to Utah due to the large number of Mormons or whether it reflects how badly Trump  does nationwide. In view of West Virginia, this does not look like an even shift nationwide of about 8% of the vote (based on 2008).

But if I am to follow the dictum "Show all polls", then it is here. 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on August 30, 2015, 07:24:42 AM
I apologize. No, seriously. I forgot that you're just editing the original post every time from now on. Sorry.

But still, this is a common WV pollster with a decent track record.

I was going to wait until Wednesday to show any new polls. But I could edit the Clinton-Trump map  to remove the numbers of electoral votes and add in a shade for West Virginia to prove someone wrong about my bias.

It might be tempting when a state not recently polled appears. I would do that for Georgia.   

This is off-topic, but you can't be surprised that people call you a hack when you're convinced that Roy Blunt is toast in 2016 but Michael Bennet is going to win easily because it's a presidential year, even though his approval ratings are about the same as Blunt's.

Michael Bennett will win because Gov Hickenlooper has a special connection to Latino voters; won in a GOP wave.

ROY Blunt will lose because Chris Koster; the Attny Gen in MO isnt a dead duck like GOP presumed he would be due Nixon. He is close enough to win GOV. Thus; Kander riding his coattails.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on August 30, 2015, 08:14:04 AM
Great work, but these poll maps just exemplify how inaccurate polling can be. Like seriously, who actually expects Clinton to lose PA but win FL?

Polls are stills or snapshots; a thread like this is a film.

Events will change polling results between weeks. There will be gaffes and scandals. The economy can go into the tank.

 I am reminded of how approval for President Obama went up (temporarily) for President Obama after the announcement that Seal Team 6 had whacked Osama bin Laden. 

We might be able to see how approval polls change over time as the times themselves change.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 30, 2015, 09:58:19 AM
I apologize. No, seriously. I forgot that you're just editing the original post every time from now on. Sorry.

But still, this is a common WV pollster with a decent track record.

I was going to wait until Wednesday to show any new polls. But I could edit the Clinton-Trump map  to remove the numbers of electoral votes and add in a shade for West Virginia to prove someone wrong about my bias.

It might be tempting when a state not recently polled appears. I would do that for Georgia.   

This is off-topic, but you can't be surprised that people call you a hack when you're convinced that Roy Blunt is toast in 2016 but Michael Bennet is going to win easily because it's a presidential year, even though his approval ratings are about the same as Blunt's.

Michael Bennett will win because Gov Hickenlooper has a special connection to Latino voters; won in a GOP wave.

Hickenlooper has no special connection, he just had the benefit of having ultra-conservative Tom Tancredo as his main 2010 challenger, and a birther as his 2014 challenger.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on August 31, 2015, 12:50:44 PM
From the "West Virginia, Orion Stategies thread:

A bit more about Orion Strategies. According to this, Orion is a right-wing hack pollster...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randy_Scheunemann

Lobbyist connected to a political party and the neoconservative movement. Not usable. I must reject and rescind it.

For convenience I add the BYU poll as I delete the West Virginia poll. I can't imagine any other Republican getting any less than 65% of the vote in Utah (Trump gets 54%), and I would expect to see such. I see Donald Trump having huge cultural baggage with Mormons due to his investments in gambling casinos.

I added and removed the WV poll and added the Utah poll in good faith.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Maxwell on August 31, 2015, 12:55:51 PM
You accept the poll with NO UNDECIDEDS?!?!?!?!


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Tender Branson on August 31, 2015, 02:26:10 PM
pbrower, please include that WV poll again or I'll delete the thread.

Thx.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on August 31, 2015, 05:52:41 PM
pbrower, please include that WV poll again or I'll delete the thread.

Thx.

The poll is by a lobbyist for a partisan cause. I would not knowingly include a poll by someone on the other side.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on August 31, 2015, 06:13:36 PM
You accept the poll with NO UNDECIDEDS?!?!?!?!

This is an internet poll. There were more people submitting poll data for the Governor's race, and Utah voters know the Governor pretty well and seem to have very clear ideas on whether they approve or disapprove of the Governor and will vote for him again. The Trump-Clinton total was about 130 fewer people.

Until 2012 I rejected Internet polls -- but that year those of YouGov proved the closest to reality.

If I were to treat those as undecided (I did the math but did not show it), the Trump-Clinton split would have been something like 49-42, which seems even more absurd. I could have shown that -- but I felt uncomfortable doing so. 

Would you rather that I showed Utah with a 40% shade?

On WV -- It was 63-35 against Obama in 2012. OK. That is close to a 28% gap this time.

Maybe. I would have never introduced this poll, though --   

The poll is by a lobbyist for a partisan cause. I would not knowingly include a poll by someone on the other side.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Kingpoleon on September 03, 2015, 10:27:04 PM
... Pardon me, but should you not use the top five candidates, averaged out?

Kasich, Carson, and Trump all place in first or second in Iowa or New Hampshire. By comparison, Rand Paul is in ninth and Huckabee eleventh in New Hampshire; in Iowa, Huckabee is in eighth and Paul in ninth.

As these states traditionally winnow the field, I object to a poll by Monmouth making Huckabee tie Kasich and Paul follow by just under two percent nationally making you keep them and not put Kasich on the map.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 04, 2015, 08:05:45 AM
... Pardon me, but should you not use the top five candidates, averaged out?

Kasich, Carson, and Trump all place in first or second in Iowa or New Hampshire. By comparison, Rand Paul is in ninth and Huckabee eleventh in New Hampshire; in Iowa, Huckabee is in eighth and Paul in ninth.

As these states traditionally winnow the field, I object to a poll by Monmouth making Huckabee tie Kasich and Paul follow by just under two percent nationally making you keep them and not put Kasich on the map.

Valid point.

It is now hard to predict who will be the Republican nominee. I hesitate to drop anyone for whom I have extensive polling data until that person shows signs of dropping out or other irrelevance. I can't decide whom to add and whom to drop. It took some time on my part to recognize that Chris Christie, an early front-runner, had no chance. I failed to take Donald Trump seriously until he skyrocketed in the polls. Carson and Fiorina, like Trump, have no experience in elected office, so it is easy for me to see them as nominees unless I see evidence to the contrary. 

I see Jeb Bush as a potential winner as a political insider and Scott Walker as the dream candidate of the all-powerful Koch dynasty. Ron Paul is interesting as the only libertarian. Huckabee has a consistent following, and well fits a gigantic constituency within the GOP.  I notice that "establishment" Republicans have been sinking -- but that could change based upon financial contributions from sugar daddies who buy copious media time.

I consider Kasich the least objectionable of Republican candidates.

PPP does South Carolina, a state with an early and highly-contested primary, this weekend.  I consider South Carolina at least as relevant to the Republican Party as either Iowa or New Hampshire because

(1) Iowa and New Hampshire have gone for the Democratic nominee in all but one of the last six Presidential elections

(2) South Carolina hasn't voted for a Democrat for President since Jimmy Carter in 1976

(3) few states vote like Iowa or New Hampshire, but several states vote much like South Carolina 

I asked for suggestions on whom to add and drop -- and I got several different suggestions. The only obvious course was to add Trump, which I did. I had to backtrack through polls to get data on him. I could do the same for Carson, Fiorina, or Kasich at a time of my choosing if I deem one or the other relevant.

The Establishment candidates usually have advantages that make them Establishment.  But there are gaffes, and there is slow erosion of support. Above all,what constitutes the Establishment can change. 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 07, 2015, 10:19:29 AM


New Hampshire, Marist


43 Clinton -- 48 Bush
46 Clinton -- 45 Trump

http://www.scribd.com/doc/278707802/NBC-News-Marist-Poll-New-Hampshire-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2015

Landline only. Might lean slightly R for that..
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 11, 2015, 06:03:46 PM
South Carolina, PPP:


Bush 47%
Clinton 37%

Clinton 34%
Trump 33%
Bush 25%

Carson 54%
Clinton 36%

Cruz 48%
Clinton 39%

Fiorina 48%
Clinton 38%

Clinton 39%
Graham 38%

Huckabee 49%
Clinton 39%

Kasich 42%
Clinton 38%

Rubio 46%
Clinton 40%

Trump 50%
Clinton 39%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/SouthCarolina2016GeneralResults.pdf

Note that PPP has dropped Rand Paul and Scott Walker. That may be a hint on whom I drop.

...This is reasonably close to the 2012 results in South Carolina by Romney against Obama.
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 11, 2015, 06:05:27 PM

Good question. I'm not hiding it.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 11, 2015, 06:11:10 PM
PPP does Florida next week.

...the e-mail issue is hurting Hillary Clinton badly now. It dies -- or she can forget the Presidency.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 12, 2015, 10:48:08 AM
Can't wait til FL poll against Trump, email controversy will not go away entirely but its importance is going to be diminished. There is no smoking gun.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 12, 2015, 12:53:11 PM
Can't wait til FL poll against Trump, email controversy will not go away entirely but its importance is going to be diminished. There is no smoking gun.

Should there be an ethnic divide in the demographics, then the ethnic splits should be interesting. 



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: EliteLX on September 12, 2015, 01:38:50 PM
South Carolina, PPP:


Bush 47%
Clinton 37%

Clinton 34%
Trump 33%
Bush 25%

Carson 54%
Clinton 36%

Cruz 48%
Clinton 39%

Fiorina 48%
Clinton 38%

Clinton 39%
Graham 38%

Huckabee 49%
Clinton 39%

Kasich 42%
Clinton 38%

Rubio 46%
Clinton 40%

Trump 50%
Clinton 39%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/SouthCarolina2016GeneralResults.pdf

Note that PPP has dropped Rand Paul and Scott Walker. That may be a hint on whom I drop.

...This is reasonably close to the 2012 results in South Carolina by Romney against Obama.
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Jeb Bush is not down deep blue in Iowa.. lol.

You have various states missing from various candidates.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on September 15, 2015, 04:35:24 PM

I think he means he hasn't seen it.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=218755.0


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 15, 2015, 05:35:34 PM
Florida, PPP:

Bush 45%
Clinton 42%

Bush 45%
Biden 42%

Bush 45%
Sanders 41%

Clinton 39%
Bush 29%
Trump 27%

Carson 49%
Clinton 40%

Carson 48%
Sanders 33%

Clinton 45%
Cruz 43%

Fiorina 46%
Clinton 41%

Fiorina 44%
Sanders 37%

Clinton 45%
Huckabee 43%

Kasich 44%
Clinton 41%

Rubio 48%
Clinton 43%

Trump 48%
Clinton 42%

Trump 47%
Biden 43%

Trump 47%
Sanders 41%

Walker 45%
Clinton 43%

Walker 42%
Sanders 40%
 

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Vern on September 16, 2015, 11:19:38 PM
Fiorina Needs to replace Paul


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 18, 2015, 07:46:18 PM
Carson and Fiorina are in; Paul and Walker are out at the next opportunity.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Vern on September 18, 2015, 10:13:13 PM
Carson and Fiorina are in; Paul and Walker are out at the next opportunity.
Thanks!


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: WVdemocrat on September 19, 2015, 04:45:33 PM
Carson and Fiorina are in; Paul and Walker are out at the next opportunity.

Why the d*cks is Huckabee still in it? If anybody should be replaced by Carson, it's him. Walker could have a resurgence and win the nomination. Huckabee has come nowhere close to being a frontrunner at any point in the campaign.

Jeb is barely higher than Walker. Keep Walker in and take Huckabee out.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 21, 2015, 03:28:05 PM
Quote
Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin has concluded he no longer has a path to the Republican presidential nomination and plans to drop out of the 2016 campaign, according to three Republicans familiar with his decision, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

...

In the most recent CNN survey, Mr. Walker drew support nationally from less than one-half of one percent of Republican primary voters. He faced growing pressure to shake up his campaign staff, a step he was loath to take, according to Republicans briefed on his deliberations.


http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/09/21/scott-walker-said-to-be-quitting-presidential-race/
 

That makes one choice extremely easy:

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 21, 2015, 03:32:20 PM
Iowa, Marist:

50-39 Bush/Hillary
48-43 Trump/Hillary

46-44 Bush/Biden
49-45 Biden/Trump

http://de.scribd.com/doc/278707798/NBC-News-Marist-Poll-Iowa-Annotated-Questionnaire-September-2015

(PPP shows Iowa results this week, so this might not stick).
 
Siena, New York (state)

Biden 59%
Bush 30%

Biden 55%
Carson 35%

Biden 60%
Trump 33%

Clinton 53%
Bush 36%

Clinton 52%
Carson 40%

Clinton 55%
Trump 36%

Sanders 52%
Bush 33%

Sanders 46%
Carson 39%

Sanders 52%
Trump 38%

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: WVdemocrat on September 21, 2015, 03:34:08 PM
Carson and Fiorina are in; Paul and Walker are out at the next opportunity.

Why the d*cks is Huckabee still in it? If anybody should be replaced by Carson, it's him. Walker could have a resurgence and win the nomination. Huckabee has come nowhere close to being a frontrunner at any point in the campaign.

Jeb is barely higher than Walker. Keep Walker in and take Huckabee out.

Okay, on second thought, forget all of this. :P


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 22, 2015, 09:36:21 PM
Setting up maps for Carson and Fiorina.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 22, 2015, 09:43:26 PM
Florida, college poll from a school that I never heard from:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-rubio-fau-florida-poll-20150922-story.html

Carson 52%
Clinton 40%

Rubio 50%
Clinton 42%

Bush 49%
Clinton 41%

Trump 46%
Clinton 45%

Back-tracking for the Carolinas, and PPP for Florida.  

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 22, 2015, 09:43:45 PM
The 46/45 FL number against Trump is great for her, its to totally in play against Trump.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Higgs on September 22, 2015, 10:02:34 PM
The 46/45 FL number against Trump is great for her, its to totally in play against Trump.

I wouldn't consider that great for her

The fact that she's within the margin of error against a joke like Donald Trump shows how non inevitable she is.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 22, 2015, 10:15:18 PM
The last poll showed Trump up five against her.

Also, Trump wont be a joke for long when he wraps up nomination by winning SC in late Jan. Something Jeb suppose to have done.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Mr. Morden on September 22, 2015, 10:18:54 PM
Also, Trump wont be a joke for long when he wraps up nomination by winning SC in late Jan.

Trump is going to win South Carolina a month before the primary there?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on September 22, 2015, 10:26:59 PM
Well Feb then.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 24, 2015, 02:32:43 PM
North Carolina, Elon

52% Carson
41% Clinton

46% Bush
43% Clinton

47% Clinton
40% Trump

http://www.elon.edu/e-net/Article/121033

If this poll is valid, it suggest that the thrill may be gone with Donald Trump.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



[/quote]


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Skye on September 24, 2015, 08:39:45 PM
Where are the Michigan polls?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 24, 2015, 08:46:46 PM

Junk pollster. I'd like to see someone who has a track record and isn't tied to a special interest. 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 27, 2015, 06:49:57 AM
Utah, Dan Jones:

Quote
Utah is not exactly friendly political territory to the Clinton family. In 1992, Bill Clinton finished third behind George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot. If the 2016 election comes down to Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton, the former Secretary of State could be in for a political beatdown in the Beehive State.
 
Our latest UtahPolicy.com survey conducted by Dan Jones and Associates finds Bush would best Clinton by a 66-23% margin. That's a whopping 43%.

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/7101-poll-jeb-bush-would-demolish-hillary-clinton-in-utah

My comment: Donald Trump would be the worst Republican nominee for Utah since Barry Goldwater. His heavy investments in casinos infamous for smoking, drinking, and gambling are anathemas to LDS sensibilities. That Jeb Bush does so much better demonstrates that Practically any other Republican makes Utah solid R, as usual.  

New Hampshire, U-New Hampshire



http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/25/politics/poll-new-hampshire-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/index.html
http://cola.unh.edu/survey-center/biden-clinton-sanders-lead-trump-hypothetical-2016-matchups-92515
http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2015_fall_presgen092515.pdf

Clinton 50 Trump 42
Sanders 57 Trump 37
Biden 56 37 Trump

In the Clinton Trump matchup, men favor Trump 54-38, women favor Clinton 62-31.


http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NH/president/

The thrill is gone with Trump, and Hillary Clinton shows weaknesses.

Iowa, PPP:

Clinton/Carson: 37/52
Clinton/Fiorina: 39/47
Clinton/Rubio: 41/45
Clinton/Trump: 43/44
Clinton/Cruz: 43/43
Clinton/Huckabee: 43/44
Clinton/Kasich: 41/39
Clinton/Bush: 41/42
Biden/Bush: 44/40
Biden/Trump: 46/44
Biden/Carson: 38/47
Sanders/Bush: 42/40
Sanders/Carson: 34/48
Sanders/Trump: 44/44
Clinton/Bush/Trump: 38/26/27

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/IowaPollRemaindersSeptember2015.pdf

Going badly for Democrats in Iowa, on the whole, where they at best tread water politically. It's still early, but a shift of Iowa from D to R (like West Virginia in 2000) could portend big trouble.  Who knows, though? The memory of the stench the of e-mail scandal will remain even if the scandal is resolved  for some time.

As elsewhere, Donald Trump seems to be on the fade. 

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 27, 2015, 07:12:59 AM
Old (June) poll from Kentucky from PPP, but it does have Fiorina and Trump.

Clinton 45
Trump 42

Fiorina 45
Clinton 40

Rubio 46
Clinton 41

Walker 46
Clinton 41

Cruz 48
Clinton 42

Bush 48
Clinton 40

Carson 49
Clinton 40

Huckabee 49
Clinton 39

Paul 50
Clinton 40

Walker 42
Sanders 29

Walker 41
Chafee 23

Walker 40
O'Malley 22

Walker 42
Webb 22

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/06/trump-on-the-rise-but-could-give-clinton-landslide.html

Others will not be changed.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Kingpoleon on September 27, 2015, 07:45:29 PM
The 46/45 FL number against Trump is great for her, its to totally in play against Trump.
Florida only swings +3 GOP.

If nationwide trends followed, Hillary Clinton would beat the Donald by one point.

#Inevitable


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 29, 2015, 10:07:20 AM
Shifting emphasis from what has been a long-shot bid for the Presidency to an effort to get re-elected to his current Senate seat indicates a practical abandonment of a bid for the Presidency. I thus no longer consider Rand Paul  a viable candidate for President.
 

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/255184-paul-takes-break-to-raise-funds-for-senate-campaign


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more






Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on September 29, 2015, 01:48:02 PM

NC, PPP:

Carson 51
Clinton 41

Rubio 50
Clinton 40

Huckabee 48
Clinton 41

Fiorina 48
Clinton 41

Bush 46
Clinton 41

Trump 47
Clinton 42

Kasich 44
Clinton 40

Cruz 46
Clinton 43

Biden 47
Bush 42

Biden 45
Trump 45

Fiorina 45
Biden 44

Carson 47
Biden 44

Bush 45
Sanders 39

Carson 48
Sanders 35

Fiorina 46
Sanders 37

Trump 46
Sanders 43

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/09/trump-steady-in-nc-biden-polls-well-.html

Wisconsin, Marquette Law School:


Clinton - 50%
Bush - 38%

Clinton- 48%
Rubio - 40%

Clinton- 50%
Trump - 36%

Sanders - 49%
Bush - 39%

Sanders - 49%
Rubio - 36%

Sanders - 53%
Trump - 34%

Sanders is faring slightly better than Clinton in Wisconsin.

...in case anyone is curious, approval of Governor Scott Walker is down to 39% with 59% disapproval.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2015/09/30/marquette-law-school-poll-finds-walker-job-approval-at-37-percent-following-presidential-run/


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more







Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 01, 2015, 04:01:55 PM
Clarus, Louisiana

Clinton (D)- 45%
Jindal (R) - 42%

Bush - 56%
Clinton - 38%

Trump - 47%
Clinton - 39%


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more








Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Bigby on October 01, 2015, 04:04:21 PM
How does Jindal lose in his own state?!


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Skye on October 01, 2015, 04:39:51 PM
How does Jindal lose in his own state?!
By being an unpopular governor?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 02, 2015, 03:14:34 AM
How does Jindal lose in his own state?!
By being an unpopular governor?

See also "Scott Walker".


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 07, 2015, 10:37:30 PM
Quinnipiac, three of the biggest states in electoral votes not to be taken for granted:


Florida

Bush 44%
Clinton 43%

Clinton 45%
Carson 43%

Clinton 44%
Fiorina 42%

Rubio 45%
Clinton 44%

Clinton 46%
Trump 41%

...........

Ohio

Bush 43%
Clinton 41%

Carson 49%
Clinton 40%

Fiorina 43%
Clinton 41%

Rubio 45%
Clinton 41%

Clinton 43%
Trump 42%

..........

Pennsylvania

Bush 46%
Clinton 40%

Carson 49%
Clinton 40%

Fiorina 45%
Clinton 41%

Rubio 45%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 44%
Trump 42%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2287

Hillary Clinton is not doing well yet on Quinnipiac, and it is hard to believe that she would do better in Florida than in Pennsylvania.

I do not yet show Biden against anyone, but he seems to be doing better than Hillary Clinton. He loses to Carson in Ohio and Pennsylvania but beats him in Florida; he beats everyone else in all three states.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 09, 2015, 04:58:33 PM
Does anyone want to see Biden match-ups? I have only three states -- but they are Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: JonathanSwift on October 09, 2015, 07:10:22 PM
Does anyone want to see Biden match-ups? I have only three states -- but they are Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Sure.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 09, 2015, 08:01:36 PM
Does anyone want to see Biden match-ups? I have only three states -- but they are Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Sure.

Not that anyone would be surprised with this result from late September (Siena, New York):

Biden 59%
Bush 30%

Biden 55%
Carson 35%

Biden 60%
Trump 33%

https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/hillary-clinton-viewed-unfavorably-by-majority-of-nyers-for-first-time-ever

PPP, Iowa:

Biden/Bush: 44/40
Biden/Trump: 46/44
Biden/Carson: 38/47

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/IowaPollRemaindersSeptember2015.pdf

North Carolina, PPP:

Biden 47
Bush 42

Biden 45
Trump 45

Fiorina 45
Biden 44

Carson 47
Biden 44

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/09/trump-steady-in-nc-biden-polls-well-.html

Six states to work with -- even if only five of them could be interesting in the 2016 Presidential election.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 09, 2015, 08:43:58 PM
Quinnipiac polls of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2287

Florida


Biden 46%
Bush 42%

Biden 45%
Carson 42%

Biden 49%
Fiorina 38%

Biden 46%
Rubio 43%

Biden 52%
Trump 38%



Ohio


Biden 46%
Bush 37%

Carson 46%
Biden 42%

Biden 44%
Fiorina 42%

Biden 46%
Rubio 41%

Biden 49%
Trump 38%



Pennsylvania

Biden 45%
Bush 42%

Carson 47%
Biden 42%

Biden 44%
Fiorina 43%

Biden 45%
Rubio 43%

Biden 50%
Trump 40%



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 09, 2015, 08:55:03 PM

MATCH-UPS INVOLVING JOE BIDEN

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Jeb Bush (R)

(
)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ben Carson (R)


(
)


Joseph Biden (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R)

(
)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Mike Huckabee(R)

(
)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R)

(
)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Donald Trump(R)

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 09, 2015, 08:57:37 PM
What do I see? Joe Biden is doing about as well as Hillary Clinton did before the break of the e-mail scandal except (for now) against Ben Carson.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: JonathanSwift on October 09, 2015, 09:36:33 PM
Polite suggestion: With Carson having positioned himself as the leading evangelical candidate, and with Huckabee having fallen to eighth nationally in the RCP average, I think it would be safe to drop the former Arkansas Governor at this point. If you want to continue doing six maps, then Cruz (who has more than double Huckabee's support nationally and in Iowa, and ten times his support in New Hampshire) makes far more sense.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 09, 2015, 10:08:56 PM
Polite suggestion: With Carson having positioned himself as the leading evangelical candidate, and with Huckabee having fallen to eighth nationally in the RCP average, I think it would be safe to drop the former Arkansas Governor at this point. If you want to continue doing six maps, then Cruz (who has more than double Huckabee's support nationally and in Iowa, and ten times his support in New Hampshire) makes far more sense.

Reasonable.  I have been slow to drop one potential nominee for another,  Huckabee has not yet suspended his campaign or stated that he would drop out. He is one of those 'lurking' candidates who can 'run' without starting an expensive campaign.

I consider Huckabee a campaign  drop-out if he takes a job with the news media.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 12, 2015, 12:19:33 PM
Virginia, Christopher Newport University

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/oct%2012%202015%20report-final.pdf

Hillary:

Clinton 47
Trump 40

Carson 49
Clinton 43

Fiorina 47
Clinton 43

Bush 46
Clinton 43

Rubio 45
Clinton 45

Clinton 49
Cruz 41

Christie 47
Clinton 42

At this point I would project Hillary Clinton to lose much like Kerry in 2004 except against Donald Trump. 


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 12, 2015, 12:28:11 PM
MATCH-UPS INVOLVING JOE BIDEN

Christopher Newport University, Virginia

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/oct%2012%202015%20report-final.pdf



Biden:

Biden 54
Trump 37

Biden 48
Carson 44

Biden 48
Fiorina 42

Biden 47
Bush 42

Biden 50
Bush 40

Biden 53
Cruz 36

Biden 48
Christie 41

Rubio isn't mentioned here.

At this point, the Vice-President seems to be winning almost all swing states.  

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Jeb Bush (R)

(
)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ben Carson (R)


(
)


Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Joseph Biden (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R)

(
)


Joseph Biden (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R)

(
)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Donald Trump(R)

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 12, 2015, 02:37:53 PM
I have made the transition from Huckabee to Cruz for the match-ups involving the Vice President.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 12, 2015, 03:19:50 PM
PPP is going to release their PA poll tomorrow. Any last guesses?

My guess:

Clinton/Carson: 42/47
Clinton/Trump: 47/42
Clinton/Bush: 43/45
Clinton/Rubio: 42/45
Clinton/Fiorina: 42/45

Biden/Carson: 43/43
Biden/Bush: 44/41
Biden/Trump: 48/42
Biden/Fiorina: 45/43

Sanders/Bush: 41/43
Sanders/Carson: 40/46
Sanders/Trump: 44/41


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Skye on October 12, 2015, 03:26:11 PM
PPP is going to release their PA poll tomorrow. Any last guesses?

My guess:

Clinton/Carson: 42/47
Clinton/Trump: 47/42
Clinton/Bush: 43/45
Clinton/Rubio: 42/45
Clinton/Fiorina: 42/45

Biden/Carson: 43/43
Biden/Bush: 44/41
Biden/Trump: 48/42
Biden/Fiorina: 45/43

Sanders/Bush: 41/43
Sanders/Carson: 40/46
Sanders/Trump: 44/41

Probably like today's VA poll. Hillary and Sanders relatively weak while Biden polls well.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 13, 2015, 05:55:09 PM
Connecticut, the Q

Clinton gets 44 percent to Carson's 42 percent. She leads Fiorina 45 - 40 percent and tops Trump 47 - 40 percent.

Connecticut voters give Biden the best favorability rating of any presidential contender, 56 - 29 percent. Jeb Bush gets a negative 33 - 51 percent, among the worst scores. Favorability ratings for candidates are:

    Clinton: Negative 42 - 51 percent;
    Trump: Negative 37 - 56 percent;
    Carson: 39 - 26 percent;
    Sanders: 39 - 25 percent;
    Fiorina: 33 - 25 percent.

---

From October 7 - 11, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,735 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 464 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points and 610 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2289

Rather weak for Hillary Clinton.

Idaho, Dan Jones... Limited selection of data, but anyone who thinks that Idaho will be anything other than super-solid R  may need a trip to the lunatic ward. No material on Biden or on any Republican who has any experience as an elected public official (Bush, Castro, Huckabee, Kasich, or Rubio.

Fiorina (R): 59%
Clinton (D): 25%

Trump (R): 51%
Clinton (D): 30%

Jones polled 586 Idahoans from Sept. 22-30; margin of error plus or minus 4.05 percent.

http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/636-poll-trump-and-sanders-lead-2016-field-in-idaho

(I here save space for PPP on Pennsylvania).

PPP, Pennsylvania

General election match ups for President in Pennsylvania are a mixed bag. Hillary Clinton trails behind Ben Carson (47/43), Chris Christie (45/41), Marco Rubio (45/42), Donald Trump (45/43), and Carly Fiorina (43/42) in the state. But she has leads over John Kasich (41/39), Jeb Bush (45/40), Ted Cruz (46/40), Rick Santorum (47/39) and Mike Huckabee (47/38). Republicans leading half of the match ups is a pretty good sign for them in a state where they haven't won the general election in almost 30 years.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/10/toomey-leads-narrowly-for-reelection-presidential-matches-split.html#more


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 13, 2015, 06:08:23 PM
Connecticut, the Q:

MATCH-UPS INVOLVING JOE BIDEN

Vice President Biden runs best against top Republican contenders in general election matchups in Connecticut:

    51 - 39 percent over Carson;
    53 - 36 percent over Fiorina:
    55 - 37 percent over Trump.

Sanders gets 44 percent to Carson's 41 percent. He leads Fiorina 44 - 39 percent and beats Trump 49 - 40 percent.

Connecticut voters give Biden the best favorability rating of any presidential contender, 56 - 29 percent.


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2289

Jeb not mentioned in any match-up.

(I here save space for PPP on Pennsylvania).

PPP, Pennsylvania

Joe Biden leads all the Republican candidates we tested against him in Pennsylvania and on average does about 6 points better than Clinton in the comparable general election match ups. He leads Carson 46/44, Trump 45/43, Rubio 45/41, and Fiorina 46/40. Of course the standard caveat that life as a non candidate is usually a lot easier than life as a candidate applies once again to these numbers.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/10/toomey-leads-narrowly-for-reelection-presidential-matches-split.html#more

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Jeb Bush (R)

(
)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ben Carson (R)


(
)


Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Joseph Biden (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R)

(
)


Joseph Biden (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R)

(
)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Donald Trump(R)

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 21, 2015, 01:49:24 PM
New Hamphire, PPP


Clinton - 45%
Bush - 41%

Clinton - 48%
Carson - 42%

Biden - 48%
Carson - 39%

Sanders - 47%
Carson - 39%

Clinton - 45%
Christie - 44%

Clinton - 50%
Cruz - 37%

Clinton - 46%
Fiorina - 42%

Clinton - 51%
Huckabee - 35%

Clinton- 44%
Kasich - 44%

Clinton - 48%
Rubio - 42%

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 42%

It looks as if the server 'scandal' and the Benghazi investigation have faded -- unless they have blown up on Republicans.  

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_102115.pdf

Wisconsin, Wisconsin Public Radio:

4
OF THOSE WHO SAID THEY WILL DEFINITELY OR PROBABLY VOTE IN THE PRIMARY ONLY

10.
Hillary Clinton 50%  Donald Trump 39%


11.

Hillary Clinton  49% Jeb Bush 39%

12. Hillary Clinton 49% Ben Carson 45%


Impressive, but not usable because it is for primary voters. Consider it illustrative if nothing else. Wisconsin looks like an impending disaster for the Republican Party.

I show only the Clinton-Carson matchup here as a placeholder.

http://www.wpr.org/sites/default/files/2015%20Fall%20WI%20Survey%20Release.pdf


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 23, 2015, 12:13:27 AM
PPP, New Hampshire. I will probably close this line after PPP gives results from North Carolina.

Biden - 48%
Carson - 39%


Biden - 47%
Rubio - 40%


Biden - 51%
Trump - 40%



Joseph Biden (D) vs. Jeb Bush (R)

(
)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ben Carson (R)


(
)


Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Joseph Biden (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R)

(
)


Joseph Biden (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R)

(
)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Donald Trump(R)

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Ljube on October 23, 2015, 12:20:30 AM
Pbrower, could you please only keep Hillary's matchups and remove all the rest? She is now all but guarantied to be the Dem nominee.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Higgs on October 23, 2015, 10:09:52 AM
Pbrower, could you please only keep Hillary's matchups and remove all the rest? She is now all but guarantied to be the Dem nominee.


Yeah no point in doing Biden matchups anymore


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 23, 2015, 10:58:09 AM
Pbrower, could you please only keep Hillary's matchups and remove all the rest? She is now all but guarantied to be the Dem nominee.


Yeah no point in doing Biden matchups anymore

A promise -- if PPP doesn't show Biden match-ups I will stop. In view of the effective termination of a campaign before it really started, I will stop after I get to color in matches of Biden against Cruz and Rubio in North Carolina. We can call this a 'historical still' within a movie. We may have a prediction of an election that never happened -- let us say George Voinovich vs. Al Gore in 2000.  (Good for an alternative timeline!)

All in all, I see Joe Biden as a default in the event that something went terribly wrong with the testimony of Hillary Clinton on the server 'scandal' and the murder of an American ambassador by terrorist outlaws in Benghazi. If anything, I can't now see many people voting for Joe Biden but not Hillary Clinton in November 2016. We may have seen in these polls involving Joe Biden how Hillary Clinton would do without all the attention tot he 'server' scandal and 'Benghazi'.

The opportunity for Republicans to tear down the Hillary Clinton campaign has vanished.  I thought that the Biden match-ups are close to what one would get with Hillary Clinton without the electoral baggage of the server 'scandal' and Benghazi. The controversy has imploded to the detriment of the GOP.

I predict that electoral maps that show Hillary Clinton against any imaginable Republican are going to get redder in Atlas coloring. Tiny New Hampshire already shows this.

 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 23, 2015, 08:36:46 PM
It's Zogby in association with Bowling Green State University. Zogby has usually been suspect for methodology... but the college seems to have done the poll. Match-ups with Rubio are conspicuously lacking. No Biden, either.

Ohio -- BGSU, Zogby

Clinton (D): 46%
Trump (R): 35%

Sanders (D): 42%
Trump (R): 34%

Clinton (D): 45%
Carson (R): 35%

Sanders (D): 41%
Carson (R): 33%

Clinton (D): 47%
Bush (R): 31%

Sanders (D): 43%
Bush (R): 30%

Clinton (D): 45%
Fiorina (R): 30%

Sanders (D): 42%
Fiorina (R): 29%

http://www.bgsu.edu/content/dam/BGSU/news/2015/10/BGSUPollFindings_Day1.pdf


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 23, 2015, 11:15:21 PM
Ohio: Zogby, Bowling Green State University

^Actually, there are Biden-GOP matchups, I just didn't post them because he dropped out of the race this week.

Trump (R): 33%
Biden (D): 45%

Carson (R): 33%
Biden (D): 42%

Bush (R): 27%
Biden (D): 45%

Fiorina (R): 27%
Biden (D): 43%



Thank you.

Pbrower, could you please only keep Hillary's matchups and remove all the rest? She is now all but guarantied to be the Dem nominee.


Yeah no point in doing Biden matchups anymore

...Hey, I don't renege on my promises. I add one more data point and change one for a critical swing state. I think this a worthy part of the line before I put it to sleep.  It's Ohio -- one of the most relevant states.

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Jeb Bush (R)

(
)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ben Carson (R)


(
)


Joseph Biden (D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Joseph Biden (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R)

(
)


Joseph Biden (D) vs. Marco Rubio (R)

(
)

Joseph Biden (D) vs. Donald Trump(R)

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more






Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 27, 2015, 02:44:19 PM
North Carolina, PPP

Clinton - 46%
Bush - 43%

Carson - 49%
Clinton - 43%

Cruz - 46%
Clinton - 45%

Fiorina - 45%
Clinton - 43%

Huckabee - 48%
Clinton - 44%

Clinton - 44%
Kasich - 42%

Rubio - 48%
Clinton - 42%

Trump - 48%
Clinton- 42%


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 27, 2015, 09:05:44 PM
PPP had nothing on Joe Biden in North Carolina.

The last binary match-ups you saw involving Joe Biden are the last ones that you are going to see unless something weird happens. Those may say more about how Hillary Clinton will do after people recognize that the server 'scandal' is a non-issue and that the death of Christopher Stevens was something that she could not stop.

I see a marked improvement for her from North Carolina alone, one that suggests that the state will be very close in 2016. We will likely see such states as Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Virginia go much more Atlas Red as the next polls come out. Those states (and New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin) get polled often.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 29, 2015, 05:30:34 PM
Something amazing -- Jeb Bush seems to be collapsing as a candidate. I would have never expected this. Is he on the brink of 'suspending' his campaign? I am contemplating dropping him in view of some of his recent, manifest failures. He is just not up to the campaign for the Presidency. 

...PPP usually has announced by now what states it will be polling  in the next week; who knows? We may be getting a poll involving an unlikely state. Kansas? Vermont? Minnesota? Idaho?

It's easy for those who have our focus on the Presidency that there will be some gubernatorial elections in Kentucky and Louisiana.  Maybe that's it.

I saw no results from Q this week.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 29, 2015, 10:06:02 PM
PPP has already announced that it will poll Iowa this weekend. I wish we could get a CO poll soon... this state has really been underpolled this election cycle. (NC probably gets polled most often, yawn)

Thank you.

Who knows? Maybe we will get general election polls from Colorado and Virginia next week from Q... they would seem to be next on the rotation. Maybe Iowa as well.

Iowa has been near the national average in most recent elections, typically about D+2. It was the tipping-point state in 2008. It typically votes in tandem with Wisconsin, which has gone wildly Democratic this year while Democrats struggle in Iowa. Even in 2004, the two states were decided by razor-thin margins.

 
Iowa should show four things:

1.  Whether Hillary Clinton has successfully fended off the Republican inquiries on the server 'scandal' to the satisfaction of Iowa voters

2. How Ted Cruz fares after approaching front-runner status

3. Whether Jeb Bush has any viability

4. Whether Iowa and Wisconsin are going in different directions in partisan affiliation.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 29, 2015, 10:12:07 PM
North Carolina, PPP
Cruz - 46%  Clinton - 45%
New Hamphire, PPP
Clinton - 50%  Cruz - 37%
Virginia, Christopher Newport University
Clinton 49  Cruz 41
Kentucky, PPP (poll from June 2015)
Cruz 48  Clinton 42
Iowa, PPP:
Clinton/Cruz: 43/43
South Carolina, PPP:
Cruz 48%  Clinton 39%
Florida, PPP:
Clinton 45%  Cruz 43%

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 29, 2015, 10:42:54 PM
A little more backtracking:

Missouri, PPP
Cruz 50% Clinton 38%
Illinois, PPP
Clinton 51%  Cruz 35%
Pennsylvania, PPP
Clinton 46 Ted Cruz 40
Michigan, PPP (no subsequent junk polls)
Clinton 49 Cruz 39
Arizona, PPP:
Cruz 44, Clinton 43

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on October 29, 2015, 10:52:05 PM
So far I don't see Ted Cruz doing better than any other Republican against Hillary Clinton. Again -- Iowa (which PPP does next week) should be interesting next week.  (Likewise Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Virginia... maybe even Arizona). This map suggests that he might do slightly better than Romney 2012 -- if you think that he can flip either Iowa or Colorado. He certainly won't flip Florida.

The razor-thin margin by which Ted Cruz would win Arizona suggests that he would lose Colorado while putting Arizona at risk of a Clinton victory. He's the 'wrong' sort of Hispanic to win the votes of Mexican-Americans.  


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 02, 2015, 12:26:16 PM
Survey USA, WXIA-TV (NBC-11 Atlanta)

Trump 46, Clinton 37

No other binary match-ups.

In other news, Jeb Bush is way down among Republican primary voters.


Florida, Survey USA

Trump 47
Clinton 43

Carson 47
Clinton 44

Clinton 46
Bush 44

Clinton 46
Rubio 45

Clinton 48
Fiorina 42



http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2015/11/3/florida_decides_poll_2016_election.html#3  


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more






Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 03, 2015, 04:58:42 PM
Q will have a national poll tomorrow at 6AM EST.

There will be odd-year elections for some important offices in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi -- elections that might say something about 2016.

A hint: Mississippi will likely divide close to the racial split in 2016 as (I predict) in 2015. Anything that shows Democrats stronger in Kentucky or Louisiana in statewide elections will bode ill for Republicans nationally.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 04, 2015, 01:32:00 PM
)I am moving polls for Cruz into the main collection.

It's too bad that I don't have a poll to decide whom to drop. I am convinced that Jeb Bush is showing himself less than ready for a Presidential campaign -- but Mike Huckabee is beginning to look irrelevant.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 04, 2015, 01:42:17 PM
Iowa, PPP:

Clinton 45 -- Bush 40
Carson 47 -- Clinton 44
Carson 46 -- Cruz 44  
Clinton 44 -- Fiorina 43
Clinton 46 -- Huckabee 44
Clinton 43 -- Kasich 36
Clinton 43 -- Rubio 45
Clinton 44 -- Trump 44

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_110415.pdf

Improvements across the board. Iowa is now a reasonably-good prospect for a Clinton victory and not a State drifting rapidly R.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





[/quote]


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 04, 2015, 01:55:03 PM
Aside from Rubio, "establishment" Republicans are doing badly in Iowa. They might not hand Hillary Clinton a win on the level of Iowa 2008 for Obama...  but they are not going to swing the state.

The effect of Hillary Clinton parrying the GOP investigations has begun to show.

In contrast to earlier polls of Iowa, this is an outlier. But this follows a change in the overall environment. The pattern that I see in Iowa is what I recently saw in North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. Hillary Clinton is gaining, and anyone confident about any Republican Presidential nominee picking off Iowa in 2016 is a fool. Iowa may not be as D as Wisconsin, with which it usually travels -- but Iowa does not have Governor Scott Walker.

I look forward to seeing a credible poll of Pennsylvania.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 04, 2015, 02:26:58 PM
I'm getting excited about the prospect of someone polling Colorado or Pennsylvania.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 05, 2015, 11:47:09 PM
Elon University, North Carolina

Clinton - 47%
Bush - 43%

Carson - 48%
Clinton - 44%

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 40%

Clinton - 48%
Fiorina - 42%

Rubio - 46%
Clinton - 45%

http://www.elon.edu/images/e-web/elonpoll/11_5_15_ElonPollEXEC.pdf



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

http://www.elon.edu/images/e-web/elonpoll/11_5_15_ElonPollEXEC.pdf

Hard to believe. I'm sure that we will see another PPPpoll of North Carolina within a month, anyway.
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more







Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 09, 2015, 04:12:51 PM
Florida

Hillary Clinton (D): 46%
Donald Trump (R): 44%

Ohio

Donald Trump (R): 45%
Hillary Clinton (D): 43%

Wisconsin

Hillary Clinton (D): 50%
Donald Trump (R): 38%

Colorado

Hillary Clinton (D): 45%
Donald Trump (R): 44%

https://www.washingtonpost.com/r/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/11/09/Editorial-Opinion/Graphics/Copy%20of%20Dcorps_WV_BG_11.9.15_final.pdf

That's all there is here. The pollster may have a D bias, but except for Colorado (where we have no really recent polls) this set of binary polls largely confirms the common wisdom. It also shows that the more that people get to know Donald Trump, the less they like him.

...PPP has polled South Carolina this weekend. I expect to see no real change in South Carolina.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

http://www.elon.edu/images/e-web/elonpoll/11_5_15_ElonPollEXEC.pdf

Hard to believe. I'm sure that we will see another PPPpoll of North Carolina within a month, anyway.
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more








Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: JonathanSwift on November 09, 2015, 04:22:18 PM
Pbrower, Ohio is colored incorrectly on your Clinton vs. Trump map. The poll you cite has Trump leading there.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Skye on November 09, 2015, 05:04:47 PM
Didn't you say you wouldn't post polls that had a partisan agenda or something like that?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 10, 2015, 07:25:19 AM
Didn't you say you wouldn't post polls that had a partisan agenda or something like that?

OK if --

1. Existing polls are obsolete or stale (judgement call)

2. The partisan poll is all that is available, and still makes sense. I accepted a partisan (R) poll for Idaho because I expect nobody to poll Idaho again soon.

3. It says things that don't show a ridiculous lead for someone ahead, or that someone that everyone knows is behind is much closer than anyone could expect.

I haven't seen a poll of Colorado for a long time. It also says that the Ohio race for the US Senate seat is a literal tossup (Strickland had recently had bare leads against Portman). What it says of the Strickland-Portman contest is enough to cause me to change my senate projection for Ohio from "Edge D" to "pure tossup". It also suggests that Trump is doing better in Ohio than do other recent polls.

The bigger problem with this poll is that it has match-ups involving only Trump.

There will be more polls.

Yes, this one is connected to a pro-Democratic group as is shown in its language (How Democrats Can Beat Republicans in Key States). That looks as if it is written after the polls are taken. Otherwise it looks good.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Skye on November 10, 2015, 07:41:48 AM

Junk pollster. I'd like to see someone who has a track record and isn't tied to a special interest
What about this then? Seems to me like this poll is very tied to a special interest.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 10, 2015, 09:33:38 AM

Junk pollster. I'd like to see someone who has a track record and isn't tied to a special interest.  
What about this then? Seems to me like this poll is very tied to a special interest.

It may be partisan, but it looks valid enough. I was leery of the Democracy Corps poll -- until it looked valid.

What have I rejected?

1. Pollsters with horrible records, like most of the single-state pollsters in Michigan and Pennsylvania. One pollster that predicted that Arizona would go to Obama in 2012 is on my execration list for that.

2. Pollsters associated with labor unions and state Chambers of Commerce.

3. Polls by active campaigns or political parties.

4. Polls in which the person ahead has less than 40% (last time I saw some college polls that showed Obama up 37-35 in Tennessee. Obama got the 37% -- and little more). That could be a valid poll, but it could also be meaningless.

Pollsters such as Marist, PPP, Q, and Selzer and even some one-state pollsters can show the changes in basic reality.  Should Q poll Pennsylvania and show a huge shift toward Hillary Clinton there, then such might reflect that the political environment has changed. Her approval ratings and prospects for winning went down while the Republicans were preparing to rake her over the coals for the server 'scandal' and the tragic death of an American diplomat in Benghazi. I see no polls from Pennsylvania since then.  For me, the real surprise would be if Pennsylvania still leaned R in Presidential match-ups.  

...the point is to reject polls with no credibility. Maybe I have my unique idea of what is credible and what isn't.

Come on! Someone could poll Pennsylvania again and give me the opportunity to either replace obsolete polls or confirm that Pennsylvania is drifting rightward. Until I see some corroboration I am not going to accept any poll that suggests that Minnesota is a likely R pick-up while Iowa is a legitimate swing state and Wisconsin is going rapidly to the Left.

In a horrible year (1972, 1984, to a lesser extent 1980 and 1988) for Democrats I expect this:

MN IL MI WI IA OH IN

In an R-leaning year like 2004 I expect this:  

IL MI MN WI IA OH IN

In a D-leaning year like 2000:

IL MI MN WI IA OH IN

In an 'average' D win like 2012

IL MI MN WI IA OH IN

Actual result because there are few Presidential elections in which the winner gets between the equivalents of 310 and 350 electoral votes, even if such is the mean victory, and only one such Presidential election since 1900. So far that is what I expect in 2016

In a near-landslide D win (1992, 1996, 2008):

IL MI WI MN IA OH  IN

In a D blowout (1964)

IL MI WI IA MN  OH IN

1960 and 1976 have no relevance because America is very different politically from what it was in those close elections. Carter could not have won except with the Southern states that he won. 1950s? I see Ike and Obama winning much the same swing voters in the North. 1968 is a mess.  


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Vern on November 10, 2015, 05:30:05 PM
Are you not going to use the SUSA MN polls?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 10, 2015, 07:48:09 PM
Are you not going to use the SUSA MN polls?

No.  These polls have no credibility as such.

Does anyone believe that Republicans would be ahead in Minnesota when they aren't ahead in Iowa and are way behind in Wisconsin? The demographics of those states are similar.

Servey USA has a poor reputation. It doesn't pass the laugh test.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Skye on November 10, 2015, 08:03:51 PM
Survey USA, WXIA-TV (NBC-11 Atlanta)

Trump 46, Clinton 37

No other binary match-ups.

In other news, Jeb Bush is way down among Republican primary voters.


Florida, Survey USA

Trump 47
Clinton 43

Carson 47
Clinton 44

Clinton 46
Bush 44

Clinton 46
Rubio 45

Clinton 48
Fiorina 42



http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2015/11/3/florida_decides_poll_2016_election.html#3  


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





Spare us the lecture and drop the act. Just say that you only include the polls you like and we'll actually believe you.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Vern on November 11, 2015, 12:05:53 AM
Are you not going to use the SUSA MN polls?

No.  These polls have no credibility as such.

Does anyone believe that Republicans would be ahead in Minnesota when they aren't ahead in Iowa and are way behind in Wisconsin? The demographics of those states are similar.

Servey USA has a poor reputation. It doesn't pass the laugh test.



You are a hack. And it's a shame the  moderators let you do this.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 11, 2015, 12:42:16 AM
Does anyone believe that Minnesota is more R than Florida?

The poll is so bad that it looks as if it is from the wrong state. Mississippi and Missouri both begin with the letters "MI", too, and I would believe about any polls with these results from either state.

Somebody will poll Minnesota and either corroborate or refute the recent SUSA poll.

I have rejected polls for being ridiculously D-leaning. 



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on November 11, 2015, 01:47:19 AM
Are you not going to use the SUSA MN polls?

No.  These polls have no credibility as such.

Does anyone believe that Republicans would be ahead in Minnesota when they aren't ahead in Iowa and are way behind in Wisconsin? The demographics of those states are similar.

Servey USA has a poor reputation. It doesn't pass the laugh test.



You are a hack. And it's a shame the  moderators let you do this.

Minnesota is not going Republican keep dreaming.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 11, 2015, 07:09:39 AM
Why doesn't someone else post the real maps?  There's no reason why pbrower should have a monopoly over map-posting in this thread.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 11, 2015, 07:12:55 AM
Plus why are we bothering with maps based on polls that are pointless in relationship to next November.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 11, 2015, 09:08:32 AM
Polling results are a dynamic phenomenon. We are going to see events have their effects upon the Presidential race. We are going to see pols rise and fall, We are going to see people who seem like sure things

Such results as we have seen suggest that

(1) without a hint of a scandal to debilitate her campaign, she wins.

(2) had the server scandal and the tragic (but heroic) death of an American diplomat in Libya shown to be corruption and incompetence, respectively, then her prospective campaign would have imploded.  She got through that, and the Congressional investigation intended to put an end to her Presidential hopes itself imploded. So say most recent polls, at least as I interpret them.

(3) for a short time Vice-President Biden seemed a good proxy for a scandal-free Hillary Clinton. Polls suggested that had he sought the Presidency he would have won much like Obama did in 2008 and 2012. Much of the Clinton support would have gone to him had Hillary Clinton imploded at the Congressional investigation. But he abandoned any prospect of a run for the Presidency around the time of the formal investigation. He knew that the Republicans had nothing on her despite their complete search for scandal and incompetence.     

(4) one has little cause to believe that the political environment is different from what it was in 2008 and 2012. Hillary Clinton has no new regional or demographic strengths -- or weaknesses. At this point I figure that the 2016 election will be a near re-run of 2012.

(5) Republicans need a realignment to win in the absence of the usual and obvious political disasters -- a personal scandal involving the President, an economic implosion, or some disaster of foreign policy. Ruling out those, Republicans would need one of the following:

a. a mass migration of people likely to vote Republican moving into Blue (atlas Red) states or a mass migration of people likely to vote Democratic moving out of Red (atlas Blue) states. The first happened in Colorado in the 1970s and 1980s, when conservative-leaning voters moved out of Greater Los Angeles to Colorado and took their voting habits with them. The latter happened in Greater New Orleans when (mostly poor) people hurt by Hurricane Katrina left permanently.

b. a religious revival that promotes conservative politics where such had not happened. Does anyone see that? That happened in the 1970s and led to the rise of Ronald Reagan.

c. GOP interests gaining mass trust.

d. the young-adult vote trending much more conservative than recent youth, as in the early 1980s. Generation X was much more conservative on economics than Boomers, and its earliest voters surprised everyone by voting so strongly for Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984. Democrats tried to get the young-adult vote out those years, and it backfired. Media did not see the two Reagan landslides coming -- but they did.

Do you see any of those happening in Minnesota or elsewhere?

(6) in Senatorial and Gubernatorial races, Republicans outside of traditionally-safe states are faring far worse in approval ratings than are Democrats. Approval ratings of the Republican-dominated House of Representatives are abysmal. Such helps Democrats in the Presidential race. Sure, Chuck Grassley is doing OK in Iowa, but he has been around for decades.

(7) bad polls happen, and they are not 'bad' simply because I say so. When I see someone else getting similar results in Minnesota while I see the GOP imploding in Wisconsin and struggling in Iowa (the states most similar demographically to Minnesota) I will show those polls. Democrats did well in Minnesota in 2014 in a Republican wave year.   
 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 11, 2015, 12:10:19 PM
If the GOP win MN, it will really be over, MN is a green state like OR, and have a high concentration of Timbers in the outline areas of St Paul. But rhe GOP is struggling in Va, and the state as well as the country will vote Dem, as long as Trump is nominated.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Senator Cris on November 12, 2015, 12:48:56 PM
MINNESOTA - SUSA poll:

Carson: 50%
Clinton: 41%

Rubio: 47%
Clinton: 41%

Fiorina: 45%
Clinton: 41%

Trump: 45%
Clinton: 42%

Bush: 44%
Clinton: 43%

Clinton: 46%
Cruz: 41%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c35be9e1-00ac-46e1-ae46-2dd58f805665&c=72


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 12, 2015, 03:20:48 PM
No way can I believe that Minnesota is more R than Florida.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 12, 2015, 04:27:35 PM
Here is the last PPP poll involving Minnesota -- from June. It is dated to the extent that it does not include Carson, Fiorina, or Trump.

No way has Minnesota drifted so far and so fast as the Survey USA poll shows in Minnesota. 

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 49%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 39%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 47%
Chris Christie .................................................. 37%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 51%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 35%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 50%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 49%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q9 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 48%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/clinton-ahead-in-minnesota.html#more


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 12, 2015, 04:38:06 PM
Survey USA, WXIA-TV (NBC-11 Atlanta)

Trump 46, Clinton 37

No other binary match-ups.

In other news, Jeb Bush is way down among Republican primary voters.


Florida, Survey USA

Trump 47
Clinton 43

Carson 47
Clinton 44

Clinton 46
Bush 44

Clinton 46
Rubio 45

Clinton 48
Fiorina 42



http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/news/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2015/11/3/florida_decides_poll_2016_election.html#3  


Spare us the lecture and drop the act. Just say that you only include the polls you like and we'll actually believe you.


Florida -- we get a plethora of polls on Florida.

Georgia -- I hadn't seen a poll of Georgia for a very long time.

The Minnesota poll? It fails the laugh test about as badly as "The Ohio Turnpike west of Cleveland is a scenic route".

Sometimes a pollster starts doing the job well. This is not one of those times.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: kansasdemocrat on November 12, 2015, 10:23:42 PM
MI-EPIC/MRA

Link (http://www.wxyz.com/news/political/exclusive-poll-gops-dr-ben-carson-has-leading-presidential-race-prescription-in-mi)

Carson 46, Clinton 40
Carson 45, Sanders 36

Clinton 46, Trump 38
Sanders 48, Trump 36

Oct 25-31, 600 LV


LOL at you including this JUNK POLL


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 13, 2015, 12:39:38 AM
We all want the polls that we like, don't we?

Some still make no sense.

It's about time for Michigan and Minnesota polls... but also polls of Georgia, too. Those are states on the reasonable fringe of contention.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 17, 2015, 07:24:30 AM
U. of Mary Washington poll of Virginia, conducted Nov. 4-9:

https://www.umw.edu/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2015/11/UMW-VA-Survey-2015_Topline-Day-One.pdf

They give results for adults, RV, and LV.  I’ll just list the RV results, because I’m lazy.  If Webb runs as an Indy:

Clinton 41%
Trump 33%
Webb 16%

Carson 41%
Clinton 38%
Webb 13%

Sanders 36%
Trump 35%
Webb 19%

Carson 39%
Sanders 35%
Webb 17%

Now if Bush is the GOP nominee and Trump runs as an Indy:

Clinton 42%
Trump 27%
Bush 22%

For obvious reasons (three-way poll, and in the last scenario a situation unlikely to occur -- Donald Trump now looks more likely to win the GOP nomination than Jeb Bush) I can't use this one.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 17, 2015, 11:55:52 AM
...PPP has polled South Carolina this weekend. I expect to see no real change in South Carolina. Here are the results:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_SC_111715.pdf

Carson 51, Clinton 39
Bush 47, Clinton 41
Trump 47, Clinton 42
Rubio 47, Clinton 42
Huckabee 47, Clinton 43
Fiorina 45, Clinton 41
Cruz 46, Clinton 43
Kasich 43, Clinton 41

Closer, much closer, then the joke polls (EPIC/MRI in Michigan and SurveyUSA in Minnesota would indicate unless Hillary Clinton is going to win like Jimmy Carter down to the states won.

Barack Obama lost South Carolina by 9% in 2008 and still won.  If Hillary Clinton loses South Carolina by less than 14% she wins the national election.

Trump slips in his binary matchup with Clinton...


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 18, 2015, 09:35:23 PM
Unless this is entirely a poll of likely primary voters, this is really bad news for Democrats.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/11/18/fox-news-poll-trump-sanders-lead-respective-primaries-in-new-hampshire/

Clinton 47
Trump 40

Clinton 44
Cruz 41

Clinton 44
Christie 43

Clinton 43
Fiorina 43

Carson 45
Clinton 43

Bush 45
Clinton 42

Kasich 43
Clinton 40

Rubio 47
Clinton 40

Colorado, Quinnipiac:

Colorado voters back any leading Republican contender over Clinton by wide margins:

    Rubio over Clinton 52 - 36 percent;
    Carson leads Clinton 52 - 38 percent;
    Cruz tops Clinton 51 - 38 percent;
    Trump beats Clinton 48 - 37 percent.

Sanders runs better than Clinton in general election matchups;

    Rubio over Sanders 52 - 39 percent;
    Carson beats Sanders 52 - 40 percent;
    Cruz tops Sanders 49 - 42 percent;
    Trump gets 46 percent to Sanders' 44 percent.

Q no longer takes Jeb Bush seriously.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2303


Nevada, Ralston Reports



Trump 44
Clinton 41

Clinton 42
Rubio 42

Clinton 44
Carson 41

This poll has allowed the GOP to take the lead in the US Election Atlas EC Total

https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/poll-trump-clinton-way-ahead-nevada

Iowa, Morning Call

Carson (R): 46%
Clinton (D): 40%

Clinton (D): 41%
Trump (R): 40%

Rubio (R): 43%
Clinton (D): 40%

Bush (R): 41%
Clinton (D): 40%

http://www.csrxp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Iowa-Poll.pdf

Florida Atlantic University, Economics department

(caveat on decimals)

Full #s:

50.2% Carson (+9.7)
40.5% Clinton

49.2% Trump (+8.7)
40.5% Clinton

50.2% Rubio (+7.2)
43.0% Clinton

44.4% Bush (+4.6)
39.8% Clinton

47.9% Cruz (+3.0)
44.9% Clinton

http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/download.aspx?id=6196


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 18, 2015, 10:15:48 PM
Recent polls by Survey USA in Minnesota are probably right -- now. But for the wrong reasons!

Should this trend hold, then the Republican juggernaut is on the roll.

Here's my assessment: terrorist attacks of any kind give Republicans the opportunity for bluster. They can offer solutions that satisfy mass anger even though those solutions would make things worse. This is so even if the terrorist attack occurs outside the United States. The atrocities in France and the (apparent) terror bombing of a Russian jetliner suggest that the world is a much more dangerous place in which the toughest responses become more attractive. Fear brings out the worst in people, and it works invariably against liberalism.

As we may recall, the incompetent administration of George W. Bush found its popularity skyrocketing after terrorist assaults, accusations (usually unfounded) of Saddam Hussein being in possession of WMDs, or the ratcheting of fear of terrorist attacks. Not until failures became evident  did things catch up with him... but fear of international menaces tends to drive people to the Right.

President Obama does his usual measured response. He suggests that America allow in more refugees and lets the French do the military attacks on the monsters of ISIS. Then he might let the Russians take potshots at ISIS in revenge of a  terrorist-bombed jetliner. Republican-friendly pundits on FoX News assail the President for failing to blame "Radical Islam", and (mostly) Republican pols call for denying refugees from Syria any opportunity to relocate to the United States. The measured response has typically worked better over the long run.

Radical Islam is not the problem. Moammar Qaddafi was a radical on many things, but his version of Islam was anything but radical. Saddam Hussein allowed arguably the most secularized of Muslim societies, and his Shiite opponents were much more radical in their Islam.

President Obama is right about Bashir Assad; cruel, corrupt, and inept as he is, and as much of the problem in Syria, he must go. Assad is creating the environment in which ISIS can flourish.

Criminality? Brutality? Tyranny? Islam is the least objectionable feature of ISIS. Indeed, its worst enemies in the field are Muslims -- Shiites in Iraq and Kurds in both Syria and Iraq. Of course, criminality, brutality, and tyranny marked the nominally-Christian Nazis and Fascists and the thug leadership of (largely a Buddhist-Shinto fusion) WWII-era Japan.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on November 19, 2015, 06:55:28 AM
Clinton obviously is in a tight race right now, but Carson & Rubio are ahead right now. I doubt Trump has pulled ahead. Clinton is probably headed for a close election. But, Trump who is weak on immigration provides that opening for a 272 or more electoral vote margin.

MN, like OR, has closer than expected margins, but she will win it.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Senator Cris on November 19, 2015, 09:04:10 AM
You are forgetting the MN SUSA poll. Please include it.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 19, 2015, 09:24:39 AM
You are forgetting the MN SUSA poll. Please include it.

"Right for the wrong reason" after the fact is still wrong. There will be plenty of reputable pollsters who show Democrats in deep trouble for a month or so.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 20, 2015, 12:29:05 PM
Virginia: Roanoke University:

Clinton 44, Carson 44
Clinton 45, Rubio 41
Clinton 50, Trump 36
Clinton 46, Bush 39
Clinton 46, Fiorina 39
Clinton 47, Cruz 39

http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/Nov2015.Consumer%20Sentiment%20and%20Politics%20Topline.pdf

It could be Virginia. Due to the proximity of DC and the large number of well-educated government employees, the Virginia electorate might be more savvy and less likely to swing on an event that does not involve the credibility of a politician. Hillary Clinton has recovered from the investigation of the server 'scandal' and of the death of an American diplomat in Benghazi, which may not have been reflected in the most recent polls.

Ben Carson still ties with Hillary Clinton here, but this shows a loss of the Carson lead.

"As Virginia goes, so goes America"? No, not yet. Virginia could be the tipping point state this time, which defines who wins. But Virginia has been 'right' for only four Presidential elections. No better than Colorado or Florida, but better than all but two states.

So how far do the states go in being right on the Presidential elections?

One only -- none.
Two -- CA CT DE DC HI IL ME MD MA MI MN NH NJ NY OR PA RI VT WA WI
Three -- IA NM
Four (2000) -- CO FL VA
Seven (1980) -- NV
Eleven (1964) -- OH

Bold indicates hyper-partisan D states.

So what will it be if a Republican wins decisively?

Two -- IN NC
Three (your pick) ME NH OR PA and all that voted 'wrong' in 2012
Four -- IA, maybe
Five -- CO FL VA
Eight -- NV, maybe
Twelve -- OH

If a Democrat barely wins
One -- unlikely
Three -- CA CT DE DC HI IL ME MD MA MI MN NH NJ NY OR PA RI VT WA WI
Four -- IA maybe, NM
Five -- CO maybe, VA
Eight -- NV
Twelve -- OH maybe

If a Democrat wins decisively, but well short of a landslide (Obama 2012)

One -- unlikely, NC and NE-02 most likely
Three -- CA CT DE DC HI IL ME MD MA MI MN NH NJ NY OR PA RI VT WA WI
Four -- IA
Five -- CO, FL maybe, VA
Eight -- NV
Twelve -- OH  

A firm Democratic win (Obama 2000, Clinton 1992/1996) -- best left to your imagination.



 

If I am picking any state to decide the 2016 election it is Virginia. Watch Virginia.





Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 20, 2015, 02:31:04 PM
Marquette University Law School, Wisconsin.

Hillary Clinton loses once-large leads in Wisconsin, most likely because the boost that Republicans get from any fear of terror that terrorist crimes in Paris created. Republicans have been pushing fear of terrorism lately. Whether such backfires is to be seen.


Clinton 44 -- Carson 45
Clinton 44 -- Rubio 45
Clinton 48 -- Trump 37

In other news, Wisconsin voters will likely dump Senator Ron Johnson for former Senator Russ Feingold; they more trust Democrats than Republicans in the State legislature.






Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 20, 2015, 02:38:34 PM
I'm ready to dump Mike Huckabee for Ted Cruz. Are you?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: JonathanSwift on November 20, 2015, 03:29:44 PM
I'm ready to dump Mike Huckabee for Ted Cruz. Are you?


Sounds good to me.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Tender Branson on November 20, 2015, 03:32:48 PM
Based on the latest polling, you should only include maps with Hillary vs. Trump/Carson/Rubio/Cruz.

Bush has no place here anymore, his campaign is a joke.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 20, 2015, 04:50:12 PM
I just got polled for the 2016 primary (but not the general election) in Michigan.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 20, 2015, 09:43:29 PM

Here' what I have (based upon a map that I had a month ago with more recent polls added):

VA Clinton 47, Cruz 39 (Roanoake University)
NH Clinton 44 Cruz 41 (FoX News)
CO Cruz tops Clinton 51 - 38 percent (Quinnipiac)
FL  47.9% Cruz (+3.0) 44.9% Clinton Florida Atlantic University Economics Department
SC Cruz 46, Clinton 43 (PPP)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 20, 2015, 09:45:55 PM
Exit Huckabee, enter Cruz.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 20, 2015, 10:09:53 PM
I just got polled for the 2016 primary (but not the general election) in Michigan.

By what polling firm?  And was it by phone or internet?  And if by phone, was it a live interviewer or a robo-call?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on November 21, 2015, 12:54:04 AM
I just got polled for the 2016 primary (but not the general election) in Michigan.

By what polling firm?  And was it by phone or internet?  And if by phone, was it a live interviewer or a robo-call?


Phone with a live interviewer. The pollster never identified himself.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on December 02, 2015, 02:41:03 AM
Utah, Dan Jones. I have no idea of how valid this pollster is, but I have no cause to disbelieve that Hillary Clinton would be clobbered by any Republican -- except Donald Trump -- in Utah.  Trump would fare unusually badly (if not badly enough to lose) by GOP standards in Utah because of his involvement in businesses that do not uphold Mormon values.

56-24 Carson/Clinton
48-21 Rubio/Clinton
48-23 Bush/Clinton
37-26 Trump/Clinton

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/7798-poll-shows-clinton-would-lose-handily-to-gop-candidates-in-utah


It fills some gaps as I would expect it to fill those gaps. No Cruz or Fiorina, though! 
...I need a category for someone ahead in Utah (or any state) with less than 40% of the likely vote, as Trump appears here. I will put it in the "tie" category.  


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on December 02, 2015, 06:03:42 PM
Quinnipiac national poll, conducted Nov. 23-30:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2307

Clinton 46%
Carson 43%

Clinton 47%
Trump 41%

Clinton 45%
Rubio 44%

Clinton 47%
Cruz 42%

Sanders 47%
Carson 41%

Sanders 49%
Trump 41%

Sanders 44%
Rubio 43%

Sanders 49%
Cruz 39%

...This nationwide poll is inconsistent with recent Q polls of swing states. But just about every pollster showed Republican candidates  for President surging just after the terrorist attacks in Paris. Statistical blips related to events are as real and genuine as the events themselves.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on December 07, 2015, 01:44:30 PM
North Carolina, PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_120815.pdf

Clinton 43, Bush 43
Clinton 43, Cruz 47
Clinton 43, Trump 47
Clinton 42, Fiorina 44
Clinton 42, Rubio 46
Clinton 41, Carson 47

Sanders 44, Trump 46
Sanders 42, Cruz 44
Sanders 40, Fiorina 40
Sanders 39, Bush 42
Sanders 39, Rubio 44
Sanders 37, Carson 46  

........

Down from a much-more favorable environment for Hillary Clinton, likely from before the investigation of Benghazi and the server 'scandal'. Still, Democrats don't need North Carolina to win nationwide,  and it hasn't been even close to being a tipping-point state since 1976.

If North Carolina is at all close for Hillary Clinton on Election Night, then Republicans are going to have a very bad time.  

PPP gives its story on Iowa next week after polling in the upcoming weekend.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: 5280 on December 07, 2015, 01:57:33 PM
That's sad, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than Utah.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on December 07, 2015, 06:05:50 PM
That's sad, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than Utah.

There will be more Pennsylvania polls; I just can't say when and by whom. Current polls of Pennsylvania come from when Hillary Clinton was ensnared in the doubt about the private server and the 'scandal' of Benghazi.

I'm just making a prediction. Pennsylvania will again look very Atlas Red on this map.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on December 10, 2015, 05:40:46 PM
 St. Leo University, Florida.

    Clinton, 48.9 percent, vs. Trump, 41.2 percent.
    Clinton, 48.9 percent, vs. Rubio, 41.2 percent.
    Clinton, 51.2 percent, vs. Carson, 39.1 percent.
    Clinton, 47.3 percent, vs. Bush, 37.9 percent.
    Clinton, 53 percent, vs. Cruz, 34.7 percent
    Clinton, 55.2 percent, vs. former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina, 29.7 percent.

    Clinton, 47.5 percent; Fiorina, 12.9 percent; Trump, 30.7 percent.
    Clinton, 46 percent; Cruz, 21.3 percent; Trump, 26 percent.
    Clinton, 45.5 percent; Carson, 20.3 percent; Trump, 27.7 percent,
    Clinton, 44.8 percent; Rubio, 21.8 percent; Trump, 28.2 percent.
    Clinton, 41.8 percent; Bush, 19.1 percent; Trump, 33.4 percent.

http://polls.saintleo.edu/florida-mirrors-nation-in-persistent-affinity-for-trump-or-clinton-plus-growing-concern-for-security/

No way does any Democratic nominee get 55% against any Republican nominee in Florida.Valid only if there is corroboration with other polls (for which see how I see Minnesota).


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on December 14, 2015, 10:00:01 AM
Montana, Montana State University, Billings:

Trump (R): 51%
Clinton (D): 30%

Carson (R): 60%
Clinton (D): 29%

Rubio (R): 57%
Clinton (D): 29%

Cruz (R): 56%
Clinton (D): 31%

Trump (R): 46%
Sanders (D): 40%

Carson (R): 54%
Sanders (D): 31%

Rubio (R): 48%
Sanders (D): 33%

Cruz (R): 46%
Sanders (D): 36%

http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/2015/POLL_2015.pdf


........

That Bill Clinton won Montana in 1992 and that Barack Obama came close to winning Montana in 2008 is now amazing.

   
New Strategies 360 Arizona: Clinton just behind Trump, trailing Rubio/Cruz

https://twitter.com/ConsultReid/status/677196690085031936
http://www.strategies360.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15-340-AZ-Public-Poll-Toplines.pdf
http://www.strategies360.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/15-340-AZ-Public-Poll-CrosstabsR.pdf
Quote
Rubio 53 Clinton 37
Cruz 50 Clinton 40
Trump 44 Clinton 42

In Clinton vs Trump, she gets 34% of white vote and Trump gets 22% of the Latino vote.
In Clinton vs Rubio, she gets 30% of white vote and Rubio gets 35% of the Latino vote.
In Clinton vs Cruz, she gets 33% of the white vote and Cruz gets 31% of the Latino vote.

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/AZ/president/

For comparison, Obama got 32% of whites in 2012 and Romney got 25% of Latinos here.

I doubt that as their political views get better known that they will do well with the Latino (in Arizona that is largely Mexican-American). Right-wing Cuban-Americans won't likely do any better among Mexican-Americans than will right-wing Anglos in getting Mexican-American votes. Arizona will probably be closer than that with Cruz or Rubio... and the poor showing of Donald Trump suggests that if he is nominated, anything goes in a state that has gone for a Democratic nominee only once since 1948.  

The tie between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush is very, very old and likely obsolete.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on December 16, 2015, 02:22:44 PM
Cant wait til PPP start polling again, NV, CO & Iowa, take the QU bias out, and we know NH & Pa are 51/49 Dem states.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on December 16, 2015, 06:54:21 PM
Cant wait til PPP start polling again, NV, CO & Iowa, take the QU bias out, and we know NH & Pa are 51/49 Dem states.

Time is running out this year: I doubt that there will be many polls until early January.

The Q polls are now obsolete, and I predict that new Q polls will reflect a movement toward Hillary Clinton.  PPP has a national poll this week.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on December 17, 2015, 11:01:15 PM
Iowa, PPP. Very mixed results.

Clinton (D): 41%
Rubio (R): 48%

Clinton (D): 44%
Cruz (R): 47%

Clinton (D): 46%
Bush (R): 41%

Clinton (D): 45%
Fiorina (R): 42%

Clinton (D): 45%
Trump (R): 43%

Clinton (D): 45%
Carson (R): 45%

Clinton (D): 39%
Rubio (R): 33%
Trump (I): 23%

Clinton (D): 41%
Cruz (R): 33%
Trump (I): 20%

Sanders (D): 45%
Fiorina (R): 39%

Sanders (D): 44%
Bush (R): 40%

Sanders (D): 46%
Trump (R): 43%

Sanders (D): 44%
Cruz (R): 43%

Sanders (D): 43%
Carson (R): 42%

Sanders (D): 42%
Rubio (R): 44%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/trump-third-party-bid-could-doom-gop-in-swing-state.html

Probably the last statewide matchups of 2015, unless Q has something for us next week. PPP will poll nationally this weekend. Would someone please poll Pennsylvania soon?

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on December 22, 2015, 12:42:41 PM
Cant wait til PPP start polling again, NV, CO & Iowa, take the QU bias out, and we know NH & Pa are 51/49 Dem states.

Q shows some movement. It's a national poll, so it portends changes in its next set of statewide polls  of anything. But such will likely be unavailable until January.

With this  national poll I can't imagine Hillary Clinton being behind anyone in Pennsylvania or being anything other than close in Florida or Ohio. No way could she be losing to Donald Trump in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or Wisconsin. She would be close to Trump in Arizona and North Carolina, at the least.

Up by 7 for Hillary Clinton? That suggests a map with a magnitude of wins at least as strong for Hillary Clinton as for Barack Obama in 2008.     

Quinnipiac national poll, conducted Dec. 16-20:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2311

Quote
Clinton 47%
Trump 40%

Clinton 44%
Rubio 43%

Clinton 44%
Cruz 44%

Sanders 51%
Trump 38%

Rubio 45%
Sanders 42%

Cruz 44%
Sanders 43%

My maps of binary match-ups are often terribly obsolete.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on December 22, 2015, 01:36:55 PM
Here's my projection of Clinton winning by 7% against Donald Trump based upon
(1) current polls
(2) polls from before the attention to Benghazi and the private server
(3) recent electoral behavior of the states

Note: (2) is now more realistic than (1)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

80% blue -- Trump by 10% or more
50% blue -- Trump by 4-9.9%
20% blue -- Trump by 1-3.9%
white -- virtual tie
20% red -- Clinton by 1-3.9%
50% red -- Clinton by 4-9.9%
80% red -- Clinton by 10% or more

If you are wondering about Kansas, Louisiana, and Utah -- Kansas seems to be getting increasingly unsatisfied with Republicans. Louisiana elected a Democrat as Governor last month. Utah? Trump is doing very badly for a Republican; I think that Mormons are dissatisfied with his business dealings and personal lifestyle.    


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on December 29, 2015, 07:57:56 PM
Pataki has dropped out -- as if anyone really cared.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 09, 2016, 01:55:25 AM
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_10816.pdf

First statewide poll of 2016. It's only four electoral votes, but New Hampshire is a legitimate swing state.

(The Field Poll has some interesting polls for California, but those do not yet include binary match-ups).

vs Clinton

Clinton 45
Rubio 42

Clinton 46
Bush 40

Clinton 48
Cruz 40

Clinton 50
Carson 39

Clinton 50
Trump 36

vs Sanders

Sanders 50
Bush 38

Sanders 51
Rubio 37

Sanders 53
Carson 34

Sanders 54
Cruz 34

Sanders 54
Cruz 34

3 WAY!

Clinton 43
Rubio 29
Trump 20

Clinton 47
Cruz 28
Trump 18

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Hillary pays minimum wage on January 09, 2016, 01:57:09 AM
So Trump wins PA, NV, and FL, but loses VA?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 09, 2016, 08:44:59 AM

Almost all statewide polls are now at least three weeks old. There is a college poll in Florida that shows Hillary Clinton winning Florida by astonishing margins, but I don't believe it. Florida is not D+5.

We are going to see more polling. This coming week we will get a poll from Iowa, a state that Democrats really need (like New Hampshire) to win to win the Presidency.  I expect to see more polls of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia... and even more of Iowa and New Hampshire -- because pollsters do those states often.

The most recent polls have been national polls, and they are consistent with Hillary Clinton having at the least a bare win of the Presidency. The only way in which she is losing so many swing states yet tied nationally is that the partisan identities in American life are beginning to resemble those of the 1970s, which I just don't see happening.   


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 09, 2016, 08:55:00 AM
California -- Field Poll. Not that anyone expects the Golden State to be gold for Democratic nominees for President and 55 electoral votes out of reach for any Republican. These are not binary match-ups, but it is safe to say that neither Rubio, Cruz, nor Trump has a chance in California.   


Image ratings of the leading candidates (among the overall California registered voter population):

52-31 Sanders (+21)
50-44 Hillary (+6)
30-46 Rubio (-16)
29-51 Cruz (-22)
22-73 Trump (-51)

The findings come from a Field Poll completed December 16, 2015-January 3, 2016 among 1,003 registered voters in California.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers


Nothing on Kasich, Jeb Bush, Carson, or Fiorina.

...nothing to add to the map. Basically consistent with the Cook D+9 rating for California in  national elections.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 10, 2016, 01:36:45 PM
It's only four electoral votes, but New Hampshire is a legitimate swing state.

lol

New Hampshire is a legitimate swing-state in a 50-50 Presidential election. It was D+1 in 2012,  D+1 in 2008,  D+2 in 2004, and R+1 in 2000. Do you want to believe that New Hampshire has gone D+5 or something like that?



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 12, 2016, 03:59:43 PM
I have two polls to average. This post will not be complete until I have so done this.

I will also average the Marist poll of New Hampshire with the PPP poll from New Hampshire. '

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 47% (+5)
Donald Trump ................................................. 42%

Donald Trump ................................................. 42%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42% (- -)

...

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 45% (+3)
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 42%

Ted Cruz ......................................................... 45%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42% (-3)

...

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 43% (+1)
Marco Rubio ................................................... 42%

Marco Rubio ................................................... 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 41% (-5)

...

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 44% (+4)
Ben Carson..................................................... 40%

Ben Carson..................................................... 46%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 42% (-4)

...

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 47% (+8)
Jeb Bush......................................................... 39%

Jeb Bush......................................................... 43%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 40% (-3)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf


The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls also show that Sanders outperforms Clinton in hypothetical general-election matchups in these two presidential battleground states - something other surveys have found, too.

In Iowa:

Clinton leads Trump by eight points among registered voters (48 percent to 40 percent), but Sanders is ahead of him by 13 (51 percent to 38 percent);

Cruz tops Clinton by four points (47 percent to 43 percent), but Sanders beats him by five (47 percent to 42 percent);

And up Rubio is up by five points over Clinton (47 percent to 42 percent), while he's tied with Sanders (44 percent to 44 percent).

In New Hampshire:

Clinton is ahead of Trump by just one point (45 percent to 44 percent), but Sanders tops him by 19 points (56 percent to 37 percent);

Cruz beats Clinton by four points (48 percent to 44 percent), but Sanders leads him by another 19 points (55 percent to 36 percent);

And Rubio bests Clinton by 12 points (52 percent to 40 percent), while Sanders leads him by nine points (50 percent to 41 percent).

The primary reason why Sanders tests better in these general-election matchups is due to his stronger performance with independent voters.

...

Quote
The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted Jan. 2-7. In Iowa, the poll measured 2,821 registered voters [+/- 1.8], 1,094 potential GOP caucus-goers (+/- 3.0%), 456 likely GOP caucus-goers (+/- 4.6%), 977 potential Democratic caucus-goers (+/- 3.1%) and 422 likely Dem caucus-goers (+/- 4.8%)

In New Hampshire, the poll measured 1,888 registered voters (+/- 2.3%), 887 potential GOP primary voters (+/- 3.3%), 569 likely GOP primary voters (+/- 4.1%), 690 potential Dem primary voters (+/- 3.7%) and 425 likely Dem primary voters (+/- 4.8%).

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/poll-neck-neck-2016-races-iowa-new-hampshire-n493361

PPP, New Hampshire:

s Clinton

Clinton 45
Rubio 42

Clinton 46
Bush 40

Clinton 48
Cruz 40

Clinton 50
Carson 39

Clinton 50
Trump 36


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 12, 2016, 04:09:45 PM
Marist and PPP cannot both be right, but here is what I have. If you don't like it, then wait for the next poll.

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




[/quote]


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 14, 2016, 01:35:29 AM
I'm going to add polls involving Bernie Sanders and leading Republicans, beginning with the first two polls by PPP and Marist in Iowa and New Hampshire. 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Hillary pays minimum wage on January 14, 2016, 01:39:53 AM
I'm skeptical of these numbers as I usually am. How many people from each party were polled in each sample?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on January 14, 2016, 03:04:20 AM
Even if Trump will lose, which, I think he will, 272-266 or 303 electors, he probably wont win, but should a wave develop, these map will become more realistic.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 15, 2016, 07:46:44 AM
vs Sanders (PPP,NH)

Sanders 50
Bush 38

Sanders 51
Rubio 37

Sanders 53
Carson 34

Sanders 54
Cruz 34

Sanders 54
Trump 34

PPP, IA


Bernie Sanders ............................................... 47% (+5)
Donald Trump ................................................. 42%



Bernie Sanders ............................................... 45% (+3)
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 42%



Bernie Sanders ............................................... 43% (+1)
Marco Rubio ................................................... 42%



...

Bernie Sanders ............................................... 44% (+4)
Ben Carson..................................................... 40%



Bernie Sanders ............................................... 47% (+8)
Jeb Bush......................................................... 39%

In Iowa:

Sanders is ahead of Trump  by 13 (51 percent to 38 percent);

Sanders beats Cruz by five (47 percent to 42 percent);

Sanders is  tied with Rubio (44 percent to 44 percent).

In New Hampshire:

Sanders tops Trump by 19 points (56 percent to 37 percent);

 Sanders leads Cruz by 19 points (55 percent to 36 percent);

Sanders leads Rubio by nine points (50 percent to 41 percent).

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

(I no longer take Carly Fiorina seriously).


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 15, 2016, 10:44:50 AM

What's so funny about Virginia?

Many of the polls are terribly obsolete. We are going to see more polls, and if you really believe that the GOP steamroller is just gearing up to crush liberalism once and for all in America we just might see that.

Of course, maybe the most recent poll of Virginia  says more than you might want to believe.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 15, 2016, 10:48:39 AM
Backtracking because I expect to see few polls from Montana:

 
Trump (R): 46%
Sanders (D): 40%

Carson (R): 54%
Sanders (D): 31%

Rubio (R): 48%
Sanders (D): 33%

Cruz (R): 46%
Sanders (D): 36%

http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/2015/POLL_2015.pdf

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

(I no longer take Carly Fiorina seriously).


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




[/quote]


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on January 15, 2016, 11:49:17 AM
With Va, Trump is a terrible fit, and Dems will win it, along with NH & Pa


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 17, 2016, 01:10:02 AM
With Va, Trump is a terrible fit, and Dems will win it, along with NH & Pa

What we often forget: the polls involving Pennsylvania are from when the Hillary Clinton campaign was reeling under accusations that she had bungled the Benghazi horror. 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 20, 2016, 05:59:06 PM
North Carolina, PPP.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_12016.pdf

Clinton 42, Rubio 47
Clinton 43, Bush 45
Clinton 43, Trump 45
Clinton 43, Cruz 46
Clinton 44, Carson 47

All within the margin of error, even if all such polls give an edge to the Republican. Any Republican needs an edge of 6% in North Carolina to win the national popular vote. These polls in North Carolina suggest that nothing has really changed since 2012.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.






Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 20, 2016, 06:03:47 PM
North Carolina, PPP.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_12016.pdf

Sanders 38, Cruz 43
Sanders 39, Rubio 43
Sanders 40, Carson 44
Sanders 41, Bush 42
Sanders 43, Trump 44

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

(I no longer take Carly Fiorina seriously).


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.






Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 21, 2016, 05:21:56 PM
CNN/WMUR/UNH poll of New Hampshire, conducted Jan. 13-18:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/new-hampshire-poll-results-general-election/index.html

Clinton 48%
Trump 39%



Clinton 47%
Cruz 41%


Rubio 45%
Clinton 44%


Clinton 45%
Christie 42%


Clinton 43%
Kasich 43%


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 21, 2016, 05:25:56 PM
CNN/WMUR/UNH poll of New Hampshire, conducted Jan. 13-18:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/new-hampshire-poll-results-general-election/index.html

Sanders 57%
Trump 34%

Sanders 56%
Cruz 33%

Sanders 55%
Rubio 37%

Sanders 57%
Christie 34%

Sanders 54%
Kasich 33%

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

(I no longer take Carly Fiorina seriously).


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.







Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 24, 2016, 02:38:22 AM
Alaska -- Alaska Dispatch, Ivan Moore Research

()

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/sites/default/files/polling_vs_clinton.jpg

Nothing on Sanders.


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.







Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 26, 2016, 12:06:40 AM
Should Michael Bloomberg formally enter the Presidential race, I may need to start a new map and close this thread after the week's binary match-ups which could be interesting... but quickly irrelevant. 

With Michael Bloomberg in the race I would expect Ross Perot redux at this stage. He apparently helps Trump against both Clinton and Sanders but hurts Cruz and Rubio.

http://morningconsult.com/2016/01/ne...bloomberg-win/

Clinton 36%
Trump 37%
Bloomberg 12%

Clinton 38%
Cruz 34%
Bloomberg 11%

Clinton 38%
Rubio 33%
Bloomberg 10%


http://morningconsult.com/2016/01/po...ders-vs-trump/

Sanders 35%
Trump 34%
Bloomberg 12%

Sanders 36%
Cruz 28%
Bloomberg 11%

Sanders 36%
Rubio 29%
Bloomberg 10%

The maps are going to get messy!   


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Flake on January 26, 2016, 12:35:36 AM
If I were you, I wouldn't change the maps until after he officially announces, could just be trying to get some more attention.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 26, 2016, 08:45:53 AM
If I were you, I wouldn't change the maps until after he officially announces, could just be trying to get some more attention.

Such is my intention. All I have so far is a national race which I can at most use as a control for making sense of state polls. We will see binary polls for a short time should Michael Bloomberg choose to run.   


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Vern on January 26, 2016, 09:28:21 AM
Are you going to include the new MN polls?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 28, 2016, 04:01:39 PM


Wisconsin, Marquette University Law School.


    Clinton 45 percent, Rubio 44 percent.
    (November: Clinton 44 percent, Rubio 45 percent.)
    Clinton 45 percent, Cruz 44 percent.
    (Not asked in November. August 2015: Clinton 50 percent, Cruz 38 percent.)
    Clinton 47 percent, Trump 38 percent.
    (November: Clinton 48 percent, Trump 38 percent.)

http://law.marquette.edu/poll/



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 28, 2016, 04:07:03 PM
Wisconsin: Marquette University Law School.

Sanders 49 percent, Rubio 38 percent.
(November: Sanders 46 percent, Rubio 42 percent.)
Sanders 50 percent, Cruz 38 percent.
(Not asked in November.)
Sanders 52 percent, Trump 34 percent.
(November: Sanders 52 percent, Trump 35 percent.)

http://law.marquette.edu/poll/

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

(I no longer take Carly Fiorina seriously).


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.








Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on January 29, 2016, 12:55:51 AM
Are you going to include the new MN polls?

Of course not, since it shows Republicans ahead.

Mason-Dixon polling was terribly unreliable in both 2008 and 2012.

Before you discuss the new poll of Michigan -- Mitchell is another junk-car poll. 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on January 29, 2016, 03:26:53 AM
If indeed this is a 272-266, not a 303 or 332 election, MN & MI are battleground states and will vote to right of WI, like 51/49, instead by 6, like they usually do. The same with Pa, which is showing, a closer than expected race.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 03, 2016, 05:57:10 PM
Rand Paul and Rick Santorum drop out of the Presidential race.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 04, 2016, 12:53:19 PM
VIRGINIA

Clinton leads Trump; tied with Cruz, Rubio; but Virginians "feel the Bern" (at least for now)

Potential Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump (52%-35%) and is statistically tied with Republican hopefuls Ted Cruz (45%-41%) and Marco Rubio (46%-43%), according to The Roanoke College Poll. Democratic contender Bernie Sanders leads all three Republican front-runners, including Trump (55%-33%), Cruz (49%-37%) and Rubio (48%-38%).

The Roanoke College Poll interviewed 524 likely voters in Virginia between January 18 and January 26 and has a margin of error of +4.3 percent.

http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_feb_2016_presidential_politics

No Republican nominee has won the Presidency since 1924 without Virginia.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 06, 2016, 11:40:18 PM
New Hampshire: UNH, U-Massachusetts at Lowell

 conducted from 2/2/2016-2/4/2016 Here are the outdated polls released yesterday first.
http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-5%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230845.pdf

Clinton v Trump:
Clinton — 44%
Trump — 40%

Clinton v Cruz:
Clinton — 44%
Cruz — 41%

Clinton v Rubio:
Rubio — 44%
Clinton — 41%



And here are the matchups from the poll conducted 2/3/2016-2/5/2016.
http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-6%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230852.pdf

Clinton v Trump:
Clinton — 46% (+2)
Trump — 39% (-1)

Clinton v Cruz:
Clinton — 46% (+2)
Cruz — 39% (-2)

Clinton v Rubio:
Rubio — 43% (-1)
Clinton — 42% (+1)



The newer polls are more valid. An event (the Iowa caucuses) so dictates.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 06, 2016, 11:44:38 PM
New York, Siena.

Clinton 57, Rubio 37
Clinton 57, Cruz 34
Clinton 57, TRUMP 32
Clinton 57, Bush 33
Clinton 55, Kasich 31
Clinton 56, Christie 36

Sanders 56, Rubio 34
Sanders 60, Cruz 30
Sanders 63, TRUMP 30
Sanders 61, Bush 30
Sanders 59, Kasich 29
Sanders 58, Christie 35

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_February_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf


Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Bernie Sanders(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)




Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 08, 2016, 05:03:40 PM
Siena University, New York:

Clinton 57, Rubio 37
Clinton 57, Cruz 34
Clinton 57, TRUMP 32
Clinton 57, Bush 33
Clinton 55, Kasich 31
Clinton 56, Christie 36


https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_February_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

Carson and Fiorina are not taken seriously. Has either dropped out?



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

(
)

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 08, 2016, 05:55:26 PM
I want to dump someone for Kasich in binary polls. Whom? I see a surge in polling for him in Republican primaries. Maybe this weekend, after the New Hampshire primaries induce someone to abandon a quixotic quest of questionable quality.

 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 09, 2016, 10:13:08 PM

Binary match-ups involving Bernie Sanders. The near-tie between Cruz and Bush compels me to keep Jeb in view, though.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/new-hampshire-poll-results-general-election/index.html

Sanders 57%
Trump 34%

Sanders 56%
Cruz 33%

Sanders 55%
Rubio 37%

Sanders 57%
Christie 34%

Sanders 54%
Kasich 33%

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)

(I no longer take Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina seriously).

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.








Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 09, 2016, 10:22:39 PM

Done!

Will someone please poll Colorado, Ohio, and Pennsylvania!



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)



Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 10, 2016, 03:49:03 PM
Next PPP polls will be from North Carolina and South Carolina.

Other predictable polls (Super Tuesday):

The participating states include: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado caucuses, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota caucuses, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Wyoming Republican caucuses.

-- Wikipedia.

Quinnipiac frequently polls Colorado, Virginia, and Wisconsin together in one week -- and Florida. Ohio, and Pennsylvania in another.

 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 16, 2016, 08:32:19 AM

Adding the Roanoke University and Siena University polls for Bernie Sanders.

Sanders 55 -- Trump 32

Sanders 48 -- Rubio 38

Sanders 49 -- Cruz 39

http://www.roanoke.edu/Documents/rcpoll/RCPoll.Jan2016.Topline_Exit%20poll.pdf

Siena University, New York:

Sanders 56, Rubio 34
Sanders 60, Cruz 30
Sanders 63, TRUMP 30
Sanders 61, Bush 30
Sanders 59, Kasich 29
Sanders 58, Christie 35

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_February_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)

(I no longer take Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina seriously).

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.










Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 16, 2016, 08:36:18 AM
In view of New York State, Cruz and Rubio likely have no special appeal to non-Cuban Hispanics including Puerto Ricans. They are the 'wrong' sorts of Hispanics to appeal to Puerto Ricans in the US mainland.  

But did one really expect Joe Lieberman to have much success appealing to German-Americans in 2000 even if German-Americans have some cultural similarities to Ashkenazi Jews?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 17, 2016, 10:25:51 PM
Survey USA, North Carolina.

If there should be a poll by PPP, then that one supplants this one.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6581a9ab-f961-4f38-8e5f-c23fc53d1736&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

* Rubio 49%, Clinton 42%
* Cruz 48%, Clinton 43%
* Trump 45%, Clinton 43%



They have Cruz getting 16% of the black vote vs Hillary. Remember SurveyUSA tends to exaggerate black GOP support.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/09/about-that-poll-showing-donald-trump-doing-well-with-black-voters/

I can't imagine Ted Cruz getting 16% of any sample of black voters.



Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

(
)



Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.






Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 17, 2016, 10:31:20 PM
North Carolina, SurveyUSA. It looks good for Sanders, but there might be a poll by PPP, practically the favored pollster for North Carolina. A PPP poll supplants this one.  I'm averaging.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6581a9ab-f961-4f38-8e5f-c23fc53d1736&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

* Sanders 46%, Cruz 42%
* Sanders 45%, Rubio 44%
* Sanders 44%, Trump 44%

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/09/about-that-poll-showing-donald-trump-doing-well-with-black-voters/

Marco Rubio (R): 45%
Bernie Sanders (D): 41%

Ted Cruz (R): 43%
Bernie Sanders (D): 43%

Bernie Sanders (D): 44%
Donald Trump (R): 43%

Bernie Sanders (D): 43%
Jeb! Bush (D): 42%



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/02/trump-clinton-lead-by-smaller-margins-in-nc.html

Could the rules of 2000-2012 be changing this year? Any Democrat who is even close in North Carolina is almost certainly winning nationwide.

Averaging here.

Bernie Sanders vs. Jeb Bush

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)

(I no longer take Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina seriously).

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.











Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 22, 2016, 04:28:57 AM
Recognizing the new reality in the 2016 election. A hint: much old data becomes meaningless.



Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.







Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 22, 2016, 04:31:49 AM
Same new reality with Sanders and viable R candidates.



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)

(I no longer take Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina seriously).

Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.










[/quote]


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 24, 2016, 08:29:28 AM
Ohio is now slightly R in contrast to the rest of the US unless Governor Kasich is the nominee (slight but not yet insignificant chance), in which a Favorite Son wins by an overwhelming majority.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2325

Cruz 46%
Clinton 43%

Kasich 54%
Clinton 37%

Rubio 47%
Clinton 42%

Trump 44%
Clinton 42%

Very little data here -- and it may be an exaggeration. West Virginia will not vote for Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump.

TRUMP (R): 61%
Clinton (D): 24%

Generic R: 63%
Clinton (D): 21%

http://www.wvgazettemail.com/news/20160225/poll-wv-prefers-gop-for-president-democrat-for-governor




Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.







Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 24, 2016, 08:34:20 AM
Ohio, Quinnipiac. Much data added for Sanders. The Favorite Son effect is strong with Kasich in Ohio. Again, Ohio looks slightly R this time in contrast to the US as a whole.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2325


Sanders 44%
Cruz 42%

Kasich 54%
Sanders 35%

Rubio 44%
Sanders 42%

Sanders 44%
Trump 44%

Cruz 37%
Sanders 37%
Bloomberg 11%

Trump 38%
Sanders 35%
Bloomberg 13%



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.











Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on February 24, 2016, 10:42:24 AM
Clinton has lost grond in Appalachian, she will win CO, NV, NH & Pa


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 24, 2016, 02:30:35 PM
PPP will poll Florida this weekend.

States I most want to see polled now, in order:

Pennsylvania
Iowa
Nevada
Colorado
Georgia
Michigan
Arizona
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Missouri  

Indiana? Lots of luck!


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: F_S_USATN on February 24, 2016, 03:24:16 PM
Florida Q poll out tmrw(probably primary and then general Friday)

Penn Q poll out next week


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on February 25, 2016, 01:24:14 PM
FL and Ohio are tilting R. Its gonna be a close electiom as CO, NV, Pa, Iowa & Pa decision


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 25, 2016, 03:13:01 PM
Wisconsin -- Marquette University General Election Poll

Clinton 47%
Trump 37%

Clinton 43%
Cruz 43%

Clinton 44%
Rubio 43%

PPP, Florida

Donald Trump (R): 46%
Hillary Clinton (D): 44%



Hillary Clinton (D): 45%
Marco Rubio (R): 43%


Hillary Clinton (D): 47%
Ted Cruz (R): 39%



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_22516.pdf

Kasich would have been interesting.




Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.








Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 25, 2016, 03:20:43 PM
PPP will poll Florida this weekend.

States I most want to see polled now, in order:

Pennsylvania
Iowa
Nevada
Colorado
Georgia
Michigan
Arizona
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Missouri  

Indiana? Lots of luck!

Wisconsin, Marquette University General Election Poll. Welcome additions to this map in a potentially-important state. Wisconsin voters seem to like their Democratic nominees for President to be on the progressive side.



Sanders 54%
Trump 34%

Sanders 53%
Cruz 35%

Sanders 53%
Rubio 35%


... Kasich might do better here; he would be interesting.

Florida, PPP:


Bernie Sanders (D): 44%
Marco Rubio (R): 42%

Hillary Clinton (D): 47%
Ted Cruz (R): 39%

Bernie Sanders (D): 46%
Ted Cruz (R): 39%

Hillary Clinton (D): 41%
Donald Trump (R): 42%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 10%

Bernie Sanders (D): 34%
Donald Trump (R): 45%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_22516.pdf



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 27, 2016, 07:26:54 AM
Georgia, Survey USA

50-41 Trump/Clinton
49-41 Trump/Sanders

49-42 Cruz/Clinton
48-42 Cruz/Sanders

50-43 Rubio/Clinton
49-41 Rubio/Sanders

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4bbed8ac-c9f0-4ef1-a64e-584123cee583

Texas, Survey USA


47% Trump
44% Clinton

47% Trump
44% Sanders

...

50% Cruz
42% Clinton

50% Cruz
41% Sanders

...

51% Rubio
41% Clinton

50% Rubio
40% Sanders

...



http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5d56f70b-d2d2-4f08-935b-d812fdc2b5d7

Not that I particularly like Survey USA, and I don't trust any poll of Texas... but we get few polls of Georgia or Texas. Beggars can't be choosers.


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.








Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 27, 2016, 08:00:52 AM
Two states that combine for 54 electoral votes, just over 10% of all electoral votes. Same pollster, and some counter-intuitive results.

Georgia, Survey USA


49-41 Trump/Sanders


48-42 Cruz/Sanders


49-41 Rubio/Sanders

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4bbed8ac-c9f0-4ef1-a64e-584123cee583

Texas, Survey USA




47% Trump -- 44% Sanders

50% Cruz --   41% Sanders

50% Rubio  -- 40% Sanders

...



http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5d56f70b-d2d2-4f08-935b-d812fdc2b5d7

Not that I particularly like Survey USA, and I don't trust any poll of Texas... but we get few polls of Georgia or Texas. Beggars can't be choosers.



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 27, 2016, 09:40:03 AM
A few comments about Georgia and the Survey USA poll:

This pollster gets no significant difference between the results for anyone against anyone. We see few polls of Georgia, a state large enough in electoral votes to have made a difference in some Presidential elections. Georgia is unlikely to make a difference this time. This poll suggests that Georgia will go to the Democratic nominee only in a landslide that results from a political collapse of the Republican nominee, something that I am unready to predict.

The maps show a slight difference between Clinton and Sanders, but that is because the Republicans so far get a solid '50' or slightly higher against Clinton and  slightly less '48' or '49', nearly clinching, against Sanders. My mapping system is rigidly quantitative, and for whatever its flaws I am unlikely to change it.

A few comments about Texas and the Survey USA poll:

As in Georgia, this poll sees no real difference between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders as prospects in the general election.  But it shows differences between Cruz and Rubio on the one side and Trump on the other.

Texas is a difficult state to poll. The state straddles regions, being partially Southwestern, Southeastern, and even Midwestern. Parts of Texas are politically like Nebraska (the Panhandle), New Mexico (the Rio Grande Valley), and Alabama (rural East Texas). Is the Dallas-San Antonio-Galveston triangle like anything else in America, politically? The state is rarely in play, so it typically gets little attention in Presidential politics except  in the primary and if someone running is from Texas.


How rarely is the state in play? Obama, one of the slickest Presidential campaigners ever, lost it 57-41 in 2012 and 55-44 in 2008 (the latter one of the worst political climates for Republicans in recent decades). Kerry lost it 61-38 and Gore lost it 59-38, which may reflect some Favorite Son effect. Bill Clinton lost Texas 49-44-7 (the "7" is Ross Perot) in 1996 to Bob Dole. Bill Clinton was about as good a match for Texas political culture as any Democratic nominee for President since LBJ, but he still lost Texas in a near-landslide election. He lost Texas  41-37-22 (again, the "22" is for Perot) facing two Favorite Son nominees in 1992. 1992 was close for Clinton, but put the combined votes for Bush and Perot of 1992 together and you have roughly the margins by which Dubya won Texas in 2000 and 2004.

At this stage I look for margins. Ted Cruz would qualify as a Favorite Son by the same standards that apply to Dubya, but he does not project to win Texas by anywhere near the margins that I associate with Dubya, neither a great politician nor even a good President. A Republican Presidential nominee winning the state by roughly 10 points will make his concession speech while most adults are still awake on the East Coast. Marco Rubio projects about as well as Ted Cruz in Texas.

SUSA shows absolutely execrable results for Donald Trump in Texas. He projects to win Texas, but not by much. As Trump begins to appear as the near-certain nominee for President, he shows his weakness as a nominee. This is more blatant than in Georgia. Texas has a huge Mexican-American minority, and it is usually much less solid in its Democratic voting than is the huge Mexican-American minority in California. Donald Trump can change that so that Mexican-Americans in Texas will vote like Mexican-Americans in California.

The difference between Mexican-Americans in Texas and Mexican-Americans in California is that Texas did not endure the financial collapse of 2008 as did California. Texas had a crash similar to that of the US in 2008 in the 1980s, also involving real estate speculation, and it led to major reforms of the banking and real estate industries that shielded Texas from the calamities that befell Arizona, California, Colorado, and Nevada (which have large Mexican-American populations) in 2008. Mexican-Americans are the people most likely to buy into real estate at any level of income, and are often the poorest people to buy it in any community. Mexican-Americans in Arizona, California, Colorado, and Nevada were more likely to buy into the real-estate bubble and get ruined when the bubble collapsed. Mexican-Americans found qualifying for real-estate loans in Texas much more difficult; furthermore they were unable to borrow against equity in housing with inflated valuation (a Texas reform) that would get them in even worse trouble. So Mexican-Americans in Texas did not get as badly burned in Texas as elsewhere in America.

This time it could be Donald Trump threatening mass deportation of 'illegal aliens' even if such implies the breakup of intact families. Mexican-Americans are more likely to know and have relationships of at least friendship with illegal aliens. Ask yourself whether the first thing that you ask on a date is about 'citizenship status'.       


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 28, 2016, 08:41:29 PM
Another university poll of Virginia. Kasich has a slight edge, but other Republicans lose there.

Clinton 48, Trump 39
Clinton 48, Cruz 43
Clinton 48, Rubio 45
Clinton 49, Carson 44
Kasich 45, Clinton 44



http://docs.hamptonu.edu/student/Virginia_Statewide_Survey_-_Presidential_Poll_2016_-_February_18-22_2016_20160225173541.pdf


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on February 28, 2016, 08:45:05 PM
Same pollster, this time with Sanders.

Sanders 48, Trump 39
Sanders 46, Cruz 43
Sanders 46, Rubio 44
Sanders 47, Carson 43
Kasich 44, Sanders 43

http://docs.hamptonu.edu/student/Virginia_Statewide_Survey_-_Presidential_Poll_2016_-_February_18-22_2016_20160225173541.pdf



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 01, 2016, 02:31:26 PM

Another university poll of Virginia. Kasich has a slight edge, but other Republicans lose there.

Clinton 48, Trump 39
Clinton 48, Cruz 43
Clinton 48, Rubio 45
Clinton 49, Carson 44
Kasich 45, Clinton 44



http://docs.hamptonu.edu/student/Virginia_Statewide_Survey_-_Presidential_Poll_2016_-_February_18-22_2016_20160225173541.pdf

MRG, Michigan. No Sanders and no Kasich. One of the many pollsters that do Michigan only, and not very reliably.  

Clinton 44%
Trump 39%

Clinton 44%
Cruz 39%

Rubio 43%
Clinton 41%i

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/MRG_MI_Poll_Spring_16_Pres_Prim-FINAL.pdf


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 01, 2016, 04:49:42 PM
New Hampshire, WMUR-TV (ABC 9, southern New Hampshire)

Clinton 47, Trump 39

Clinton 45, Rubio 43

Clinton 46, Cruz 35

Kasich 47, Clinton 37

http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmur-poll-in-general-election-matchups-new-hampshire-still-feels-the-bern/38257714

Colorado, On-Sight Public Affairs (D)

49% Clinton
39% Trump

http://onsightpublicaffairs.com/admin/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/KR-ONSIGHT-3-2-2016-XTABS.pdf

Limited data, but a 10% lead for Clinton against Trump suggests that Colorado will not be an easy pickup from 2012 for Republicans. I have cause to discount the blue shades for Cruz and Rubio against Clinton with this poll, so I am graying them out. 


I would love to have seen how Sanders does and how both do against Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio... but even if there is a D bias in the pollster, a 10% advantage is good enough to suggest that Colorado will be troublesome for Republicans.

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 01, 2016, 05:10:00 PM
New Hampshire, WMUR-TV. ABC 9 in southern New Hampshire.

Sanders 55, Trump 34

Sanders 54, Rubio 35


Sanders 60, Cruz 28 (LOL)


Sanders 48, Kasich 40


http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmur-poll-in-general-election-matchups-new-hampshire-still-feels-the-bern/38257714



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on March 02, 2016, 10:20:39 PM
Bernie Sanders isnt gonna win nomination. He overperformed in GE and underperformed in primaries. I wished we had a reasonable alternative and Biden won


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 03, 2016, 08:17:18 AM
Bernie Sanders isnt gonna win nomination. He overperformed in GE and underperformed in primaries. I wished we had a reasonable alternative and Biden won

Well, Ben Carson dropped out.

...I am slow to deem a campaign over. Basically when the money runs out so does the campaign.

Donald Trump obviously has a much-higher-than-50% chance of winning the nomination. He has done well in Republican primaries and caucuses in all parts of the country. He seals the election if he gets 37-35-30 wins in some winner-take-all states. There is some effort at a Stop Trump campaign; I doubt that it can succeed.

Cruz and Rubio have to do extremely well to have any chance. Kasich must do freakishly well to win. Basically Cruz and Rubio would both have to unite behind Kasich, who seems neither a fanatic nor a hack.

Cruz seems like a new Barry Goldwater, only nastier. Rubio claims to be a veritable reincarnation of Ronald Reagan -- but Reagan was a far shrewder politician. A hint about Ronald Reagan: Barack Obama has much the same skills. Kasich is closer to being an orthodox Reaganite than Trump, Cruz, or Rubio.

It is easier to come from behind if one has a four-way race for the nomination than if one has a two-way contest. In a strict two-way contest it is nearly impossible to win without getting an absolute majority. I have noted that the Democratic Party relies heavily upon the votes of ethnic minorities, and those ethnic minorities have concerns other than economic equity -- like police brutality and the quality of education. 

Being down 37-5 in the delegate count early in a 4-way contest may be less of a doom  than being down 52-47 in a binary contest at the same time. Neither Sanders nor Clinton can seek support from the supporters of those whose campaigns have failed.     


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 06, 2016, 12:49:06 PM
Michigan, Marist: Big leads for either Clinton or Sanders against Cruz or Trump.

Clinton 52 - Trump 36
Clinton 48 - Cruz 41

Correction of the polling map in Florida.

New York, Siena:


Clinton 56 - Rubio 35
Clinton 58 - Cruz 33
Clinton 57 - Trump 34
Clinton 49 - Kasich 42

Sanders 58 - Rubio 32
Sanders 63 - Cruz 29
Sanders 57 - Trump 33
Sanders 54 - Kasich 35

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0316N_Crosstabs.pdf

Note that Kasich is far more credible than other Republicans in New York, and probably also in the northeastern quadrant of the US and on the West Coast.

New Jersey, Fairleigh-Dickinson University (Trump match-ups only)

52-36 Clinton/Trump
51-36 Sanders/Trump

http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160307

 

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 06, 2016, 12:57:27 PM
Marist, Michigan.

Sanders 56 - Trump 34
Sanders 54 - Cruz 36

Really quick call in November. Sanders suggests at the least a 2008-style win.With Michigan going by this margin, the Republican nominee will have a tough time winning INDIANA.


Correction of a poll in Florida.

New York, Siena:


Clinton 56 - Rubio 35
Clinton 58 - Cruz 33
Clinton 57 - Trump 34
Clinton 49 - Kasich 42

Sanders 58 - Rubio 32
Sanders 63 - Cruz 29
Sanders 57 - Trump 33
Sanders 54 - Kasich 35

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY0316N_Crosstabs.pdf

52-36 Clinton/Trump
51-36 Sanders/Trump

http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160307




Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 09, 2016, 12:21:49 PM
CNN by ORC International. Florida and Ohio.

OHIO:

48-46 Clinton/Rubio
50-43 Clinton/Trump
51-42 Clinton/Cruz

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/03/09/reloh1ohio.pdf

FLORIDA:

50-43 Clinton/Trump
46-47 Clinton/Cruz
44-48 Clinton/Rubio

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/03/09/relfl1florida.pdf

 

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 09, 2016, 05:57:13 PM
So much for the obsolete polls showing Clinton losing Pennsylvania.

Clinton (D): 45%
Trump (R): 40%

Clinton (D): 46%
Rubio (R): 40%

Clinton (D): 48%
Cruz (R): 37%

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll--march-2016

There will be other polls of the Keystone State.

Ohio, PPP:


Clinton 44, Rubio 41
Clinton 45, Trump 40
Clinton 45, Cruz 40
Kasich 52, Clinton 37



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/03/likely-portmanstrickland-race-starts-as-toss-up.html


This suggests a gigantic Favorite Son effect for Governor Kasich. Kasich could lose nationally yet win Ohio.

Missouri, Remington Research (whatever that is):

Q: If the candidates for President of the United States were the Republican Donald Trump and the Democrat Hillary Clinton, for whom would you vote?

Donald Trump: 43% Hillary Clinton: 38% Undecided: 19%

...

Survey conducted March 3 – March 4, 2016. 903 likely voters participated in the survey.

http://moscout.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/MOScout-Weekly-Poll-March-5.pdf

Weak (leader under 45%), and this is the only matchup offered. 


     

 

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 10, 2016, 04:35:54 PM
Ohio, PPP.

Sanders 42, Rubio 38
Sanders 44, Trump 40
Sanders 44, Cruz 38
Kasich 54, Sanders 34

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/03/likely-portmanstrickland-race-starts-as-toss-up.html

One map for only one poll, but the state is Ohio. 

I question whether people really know Bernie Sanders well in Ohio, even if he fared well in Michigan. Abysmal showings for Republicans other than Kasich suggest that those Republicans have even bigger problems. Ohio is typically about R+2.

The usual value of a Favorite Son effect is about 10%; Kasich goes far beyond this. He could be the first Republican nominee for President to win the state yet lose nationally since Richard Nixon. George W. Bush came close to that in 2000. The other Republicans may be seen as failures in the Buckeye State.

No Republican projects to lose Ohio yet win the Presidency. The bellwether status of Ohio will remain intact unless by some miracle Kasich wins Ohio after winning the Presidential nomination. (Kasich now seems more likely to win the Presidency if nominated than any other Republican still running, but that ends if he loses Ohio in the winner-take-all primary).   



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 11, 2016, 02:23:01 PM
North Carolina, SurveyUSA:

* Kasich 15 points ahead of Clinton, 53% to 38%.
* Trump 7 points ahead of Clinton, 49% to 42%.
* Cruz 4 points ahead of Clinton, 47% to 43%.
* Rubio 2 points ahead of Clinton, 45% to 43%.


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=822bfd58-a858-4a72-9c64-b41906668af9&c=211


     

 

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 11, 2016, 02:27:05 PM
North Carolina, SurveyUSA

* Kasich 13 points ahead of Sanders, 52% to 39%.
* Trump 3 points ahead of Sanders, 47% to 44%.
* Cruz and Sanders tied, 45% each.
* Sanders 3 points ahead of Rubio, 46% to 43.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=822bfd58-a858-4a72-9c64-b41906668af9&c=211


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 12, 2016, 07:01:42 AM
Missouri -- Docking Institute, Fort Hays State University (Kansas)

43% Trump
38% Clinton

51% Cruz
34% Clinton

49% Rubio
31% Clinton



The Docking Institute of Public Affairs Poll at Fort Hays State University in Kansas of 483 Missourians was conducted March 3-10, and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. Margin of error among Republican respondents was plus or minus 7 percentage points, among Democrats it was 8 percentage points.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/missouri-poll-results/pdf_403071e8-60bd-5830-ad9e-0364a168dc67.html

Huge margin of error. We have only one very limited poll of Missouri from a pollster of which we know little. That is Trump vs. Clinton, and it fits the same category as this one.  Cruz is strong; Rubio has yet to show collapse. Nothing on Kasich.

I am slow to rule people out, bit the Republican contest is likely to go from four-way to three-way or even two-way by this time next week. 


     
Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Marco Rubio

(
)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.






Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 12, 2016, 07:11:16 AM
MO -- Docking Institute, Fort Hays State University (Kansas)

43% Sanders
40% Trump

45% Cruz
36% Sanders

43% Rubio
37% Sanders

The Docking Institute of Public Affairs Poll at Fort Hays State University in Kansas of 483 Missourians was conducted March 3-10, and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. Margin of error among Republican respondents was plus or minus 7 percentage points, among Democrats it was 8 percentage points.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/missouri-poll-results/pdf_403071e8-60bd-5830-ad9e-0364a168dc67.html

Apparently Donald Trump has exposed his personality to the Show-Me State, and Missourians don't like what they see. Sanders is much more electable in Missouri for now. Rubio has yet to collapse in Missouri.  

How long has it been since the Republican nominee has won nationally without Missouri? 1956! That will definitely hold this time.

Marist, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio. Registered voters.

()


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Marco Rubio
(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.






Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 13, 2016, 01:20:39 PM
Marco Rubio, defeated in the Florida primary that he absolutely had to win, can now be dropped from my map of match-ups.
     
Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.







Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 15, 2016, 07:26:48 PM
Update to recognize that whatever chance Senator Marco Rubio had of winning the Republican nomination for President is now gone.


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 17, 2016, 08:15:21 AM
The Math on the GOP side.

“Mr. Trump needs to win 57% of the remaining delegates to reach the 1,237 required for the nomination, a Wall Street Journal analysis found. That would be difficult, given Mr. Trump’s margins of victory in states up to now, but not impossible.”

“Mr. Cruz would have to take a daunting 83% of the delegates remaining. It is mathematically impossible for Mr. Kasich to win enough delegates from the states left to get to 1,237, so his only hope of gaining the nomination is to win it at the convention if Mr. Trump fails to amass a majority of delegates.”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-keeps-up-pressure-on-wary-republicans-1458176661


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 17, 2016, 06:22:33 PM
Arizona:

Trump (R): 38%
Clinton (D): 38%
Other/Undecided: 24%

Cruz (R): 41%
Clinton (D): 35%
Other/Undecided: 24%

Sanders (D): 39%
Trump (R): 36%
Other/Undecided: 25%

The poll was conducted March 7 to 11 and surveyed 701 likely Arizona voters.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2016/03/17/arizona-poll-trump-clinton-tied-in-november.html

I don't know this pollster -- but Cruz' lead is very weak considering that the state is Arizona. He's not going to win nationwide if he wins Arizona by only 6%. For Trump this is an execrable performance. Because business journals usually have a conservative bias, I suspect that this might be on the rosy side for Republicans.

The difference between Trump and Cruz is not likely Hispanics (in Arizona, that is largely Mexican-Americans); Cruz is simply the wrong sort of Hispanic to appeal to Mexican-Americans. I suspect that it is the usually-arch-conservative LDS voters who have disdain for one of the least Mormon-like Republican nominee since Mormons went Republican in the early 1950s.

Utah: KSL-TV NBC-5, Salt Lake City

()

Also -- Clinton 38 - Trump 36

38-36 counts as a tie in my scheme. (I am guessing that there would be lots of write-in votes for Mitt Romney).


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.








Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 17, 2016, 06:27:57 PM
Arizona:


Sanders (D): 39%
Trump (R): 36%
Other/Undecided: 25%

The poll was conducted March 7 to 11 and surveyed 701 likely Arizona voters.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2016/03/17/arizona-poll-trump-clinton-tied-in-november.html

Sanders has a slight lead against Trump, but he has yet to reach 40%. Thus I show Arizona as a tie for now for Trump vs. Sanders.  

Utah, KSL-TV (NBC-5, Salt Lake City)/Deseret News. Republicans other than Trump do OK -- and Trump does execrably.
 
()


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 20, 2016, 09:19:01 PM
Can you imagine? Donald Trump could actually underperform Barry Goldwater (who lost almost 55-45 in 1964) in Utah.

Cruz and Kasich pose no such problem.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 22, 2016, 09:09:58 PM
PPP, North Carolina

The strongest Republican candidate for President in North Carolina is the one the party is least likely to nominate. John Kasich is the only hopeful in either party with a positive favorability among voters in the state- 36% have a good opinion of him to just 31% with a negative one. He leads Hillary Clinton 49/41 and Bernie Sanders 44/41 in hypothetical contests in the state. His lead over Clinton among independents is 59/26.

It looks like Republicans are going to nominate either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz though, and they both trail the Democratic candidates by small margins. Clinton leads Trump 44/42, and Sanders has a 48/41 advantage over him. While 81-82% of Republicans would support Cruz or Kasich over Clinton, only 73% say they would vote for Trump. He has a 31/58 favorability rating in the state, and his unpopularity is such that 15-18% of voters- including 22-25% of Republicans- say they would vote for a conservative independent candidate if he was the nominee and that was an option for them. Clinton and Sanders each lead Cruz by identical 45/42 spreads. Republicans are heading in a direction that puts North Carolina on the board for Democrats this fall, even though they have a candidate running who might be able to take it off the board.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_32216.pdf

Emerson College, Wisconsin:

Clinton (D): 47%
Trump (R): 38%

Clinton (D): 46%
Cruz (R): 45%

Sanders (D): 47%
Trump (R): 38%

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_73d4ad9247704c9488a764acae6f7767.pdf

Maine, Critical Insights

Hillary Clinton (D): 43%
Donald Trump (R): 34%

Bernie Sanders (D): 57%
Donald Trump (R): 31%

(I assume that Maine's two districts would be close to voting alike, which I would not say about the three districts of Nebraska). 



http://static.bangordailynews.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/115/files/2016/03/CI-Tracking_Spring-2016.pdf?ref=inline


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.









Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 22, 2016, 09:17:59 PM
North Carolina, with Sanders

See the above post. Note that the last time when Republicans lost the electoral votes of the Tarheel State in a close Presidential election was 1976, when Carter won all former Confederate states except Virginia.

Wisconsin, with Sanders.

Maine, with Sanders (but only against Trump)

Again, see above post.


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 23, 2016, 04:22:54 PM
I'd expect a poll from Marquette University Law School about Wisconsin at any time.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 24, 2016, 09:28:35 AM

PPP, North Carolina

The strongest Republican candidate for President in North Carolina is the one the party is least likely to nominate. John Kasich is the only hopeful in either party with a positive favorability among voters in the state- 36% have a good opinion of him to just 31% with a negative one. He leads Hillary Clinton 49/41 and Bernie Sanders 44/41 in hypothetical contests in the state. His lead over Clinton among independents is 59/26.

It looks like Republicans are going to nominate either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz though, and they both trail the Democratic candidates by small margins. Clinton leads Trump 44/42, and Sanders has a 48/41 advantage over him. While 81-82% of Republicans would support Cruz or Kasich over Clinton, only 73% say they would vote for Trump. He has a 31/58 favorability rating in the state, and his unpopularity is such that 15-18% of voters- including 22-25% of Republicans- say they would vote for a conservative independent candidate if he was the nominee and that was an option for them. Clinton and Sanders each lead Cruz by identical 45/42 spreads. Republicans are heading in a direction that puts North Carolina on the board for Democrats this fall, even though they have a candidate running who might be able to take it off the board.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_32216.pdf

Emerson College, Wisconsin:

Clinton (D): 47%
Trump (R): 38%

Clinton (D): 46%
Cruz (R): 45%

Sanders (D): 47%
Trump (R): 38%

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_73d4ad9247704c9488a764acae6f7767.pdf

Pennsylvania, Franklin and Marshall:

http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/295186459482343904-f-m-poll-release-march-2016-1.pdf

Clinton 46
Trump 33

Clinton 45
Cruz 35

No change to the map.


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.










Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 25, 2016, 04:26:45 PM
Michigan, SurveyUSA. Kasich makes Michigan interesting, but only so long as he is a viable candidate in theory or fact.
   
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=47c9cb86-78f1-4886-a8b3-df6ef090b5b8

Clinton 48
Romney 35

Clinton 49
Trump 38

Clinton 49
Cruz 39

Clinton 48
Ryan 38

Kasich 46
Clinton 41

Sanders 55
Trump 36

Sanders 56
Cruz 35

Sanders 47
Kasich 42


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.











Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 25, 2016, 04:38:58 PM
Michigan, Survey USA. See above.


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 28, 2016, 05:05:11 PM

Michigan, SurveyUSA. Kasich makes Michigan interesting, but only so long as he is a viable candidate in theory or fact.
   
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=47c9cb86-78f1-4886-a8b3-df6ef090b5b8

Clinton 48
Romney 35

Clinton 49
Trump 38

Clinton 49
Cruz 39

Clinton 48
Ryan 38

Kasich 46
Clinton 41

Sanders 55
Trump 36

Sanders 56
Cruz 35

Sanders 47
Kasich 42

California, USC, LA Times, Greenberg

Clinton (D): 59%
Trump (R): 28%

Clinton (D): 54%
Kasich (R): 35%


https://gqrr.app.box.com/s/k000yvcmq0flmf56jw26vkm4mm52az3g

...as if anyone had cause to believe otherwise. President Obama has 64% approval in California.


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.












Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on March 28, 2016, 11:11:13 PM
I know its early, but I can say that if there is a Democratic House majority , and the one person who can lose TX is Trump, but that is down the line and thats an if, and Castro would be the Veep. But, polls like this, it can happen to Trump.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on March 29, 2016, 07:45:59 AM
The Ceiling of Clinton for a House Majority is MO, AZ, GA or TX going Dem. But, its based on a Dem House, as I stated many times before.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 29, 2016, 10:20:04 PM
Remember -- this thread is not intended to predict elections based upon anything other than current polls. It can't predict consequences of events. Thus, "Hillary Clinton Implodes in Scandal" would be shown in polling results and could not be predicted in polling results from four months earlier. On the other side, "Trump Linked to Foreign Gangsters" would have distinct consequences not found polls from before the disclosure.

So far, John Kasich does far better than any Republican as a potential nominee. Is that of relevance? Yes -- should the Republicans have a brokered convention that nominates a moderate. Can the Republicans do that? Trump still most likely gets the nomination. Are there any real Republican moderates? Good question.  

Are Republicans in better shape against Clinton than against Sanders? Not if Hillary Clinton changes her emphasis to address issues that Bernie Sanders has brought to the fore, which she could do without contradicting her prior campaign promises. But that would make her polls look more like the current polls involving Sanders, much to the detriment of the Republican nominee.

So what do the polls so far show? Hillary Clinton keeps enough of the Obama coalition intact that she will win solidly in November. Bernie Sanders expands the Obama coalition enough to flip some states. So far John Kasich looks as if he could swing some states on the margin in 2008 or 2012... but that depends upon him not being seen as 'just another Republican pol' in November, whether Hard Right or Establishment.  

Donald Trump is an unmitigated disaster.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on March 29, 2016, 11:56:51 PM
QU generic ballot six Point lead is there for a House and Senate majority. Six or Seven seat, not 4-5 seat Senate gain will give Dems the House, the Dems must put that into reality late. But, Trump will cause more GOP congressmen to fall in Latino districts, otherwise that would be safe


But, if the GOP added 9 seats in 2014, Dems  can win 6/7 with Romney map plus more.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 30, 2016, 03:36:59 PM
I'd expect a poll from Marquette University Law School about Wisconsin at any time.

Here it is:

Clinton 47.1, Trump 36.6
Clinton 44.2, Cruz 44.2
Kasich 48.1, Clinton 39.2

Sanders 54.1, Trump 35.0
Sanders 51.6, Cruz 39.4
Sanders 45.9, Kasich 43.7

https://t.co/eifW2aSx7L


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 30, 2016, 04:09:25 PM
Wisconsin: Marquette University Law School

Clinton 47.1, Trump 36.6
Clinton 44.2, Cruz 44.2
Kasich 48.1, Clinton 39.2

https://t.co/eifW2aSx7L

Hillary Clinton has her work cut out in Wisconsin. Credibility?


-----------------


Quinnipiac, New York State:

New York remains solidly blue as either Clinton or Sanders top any Republican in the head-to-head general election matchups, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds, with some margins approaching 2-1. November matchups show:

    Clinton beating Trump 53 - 33 percent;
    Clinton over Cruz 53 - 32 percent;
    Clinton edging Kasich 46 - 41 percent[/quote]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2337

...The Democrat really needs to win New York State by a margin of about 60-40 to have a real chance of winning nationwide, at least as shown in elections since 2000. That is a huge number of undecided voters. The difference between winning and losing New York State is that of getting about 95-100 and 125-130 electoral votes. California goes D before New York does.

MISSOURI (Trump vs. Clinton, only)

Clinton and Trump win this state in the primary, likely sealing out Sanders, Cruz, and Kasich for the nomination.

Hillary Clinton (D): 42%
Donald Trump (R): 40%

Clinton favorability: 38/57 (-19)
Trump favorability: 28/63 (-35)

The same poll finds Senator Roy Blunt leading his Democratic challenger by 14 points, so I wouldn't write it off as "junk".


http://www.utu.org/worksite/PDFs/DFMresearch/MO_Statewide_March_2016_FINAL.pdf

42-40 is not a decisive lead. If the Democrat gets only 42% of the vote in November, then Trump is doing better than Romney did. But 8 away from 50% is decidedly better than 10% away.






Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 30, 2016, 04:14:44 PM
Wisconsin, Marquette Law School poll. Kasich is close, but Sanders destroys Trump and Cruz. Is Wisconsin a far better match for Sanders than for Clinton? The state looks extremely polarized.

Sanders 54.1, Trump 35.0
Sanders 51.6, Cruz 39.4
Sanders 45.9, Kasich 43.7

https://t.co/eifW2aSx7L

------------------

Quinnipiac, New York
Quote
New York remains solidly blue as either Clinton or Sanders top any Republican in the head-to-head general election matchups, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds, with some margins approaching 2-1. November matchups show:

 
    Sanders topping Trump 56 - 32 percent;
    Sanders beating Cruz 56 - 28 percent;
    Sanders besting Kasich 47 - 37 percent.

It could easily go moot here, as the primaries in New York State likely seal nominations for Clinton and Trump.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2337

Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: SATW on March 30, 2016, 04:17:48 PM
()

it's beautiful :D


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 31, 2016, 06:59:08 AM

You just threw away a huge amount of data.

I do not make my maps for esthetic appeal.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on March 31, 2016, 12:06:02 PM
When do we get to see polls of:

Iowa (nothing since the caucuses)
Louisiana (a Democrat won the Governorship!)
Minnesota (nothing yet -- really!)
Nebraska (check those Congressional districts!)
Nevada (old poll)


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on March 31, 2016, 03:41:45 PM
I dont believe that Blunt poll for a second. If Koster can win, a Kander victory is plausible, if Clinton comes close enough in MO.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 01, 2016, 11:53:54 AM
http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2016/03/31/fox-business-network-poll-sanders-tops-clinton-by-five-in-wisconsin.html

Much information on Wisconsin from a poll obtained by FoX News. Say what you want about bias in FoX News on issues of the day, but it does get objective polls.

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 49-35 among voters in Wisconsin primaries.

Of course that is primary voters who are far from the electorate that one sees in November. Primary voters are generally much more partisan by nature than the public at large. I could never use this poll, but it is consistent with other polls of Wisconsin.

That said, Wisconsin is extremely polarized in partisanship.   


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 01, 2016, 12:09:36 PM
Isn't it amazing! The list of the most recent polls has Hillary Clinton winning all states for which an extant poll is listed. It's not that all the states are all "blue" (Atlas red) states; those now include Missouri, where Obama got clobbered in 2012 and North Carolina, which has gone only once for the Democratic nominee since 1976. Of course that comes to an end if someone polls Alabama. If either Missouri or North Carolina goes for the Democrat in November, then the Republican nominee is staring at a 2008-style defeat. Both? Then it might be the biggest Democratic landslide since 1964.

States that just dropped off the list are very "red" (Atlas blue)... but those were Arizona (where Clinton and Trump were tied), and Utah, where Clinton had a small but insignificant lead over Trump. But if either state is close in November, then the Republicans have big trouble seeking to replace Barack Obama with one of their own. 

If this is how things are on November 8, then many Republicans will be turning away from election coverage to sporting events, old movies, or 'classic' TV reruns.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 04, 2016, 09:15:26 PM
It's California (KABC-TV, ABC-7, Los Angeles) in a poll by SurveyUSA. The surprise is that Kasich is now indistinguishable from Cruz in electability, suggesting that the political appeal of remaining largely silent while the others make fools of themselves might not be a good long-term strategy.

Kasich has consistently looked better than Cruz in polling everywhere else against Clinton; this may suggest a change in the pattern.

Ted Cruz is the wrong sort of Hispanic to appeal in California.


Hillary Clinton defeats Donald Trump by 34 points, 60 percent to 26 percent.
Hillary Clinton defeats Ted Cruz by 25 points, 57 percent to 32 percent.
Hillary Clinton defeats John Kasich by 23 points, 56 percent to 33 percent.

Bernie Sanders defeats Donald Trump by 39 points, 63 percent to 24 percent.
Bernie Sanders defeats Ted Cruz by 35 points, 61 percent to 26 percent.
Bernie Sanders defeats John Kasich by 29 points, 57 percent to 28 percent.

http://abc7.com/politics/trump-still-leads-in-ca-despite-negative-views-poll-shows/1275688/

Mississippi, Mason-Dixon.

Mississippi
Trump 46%
Clinton 43%

Trump 39%
Clinton 43%
Third Party 13%

Cruz 51%
Clinton 40%

Kasich 52%
Clinton 37%

https://www.scribd.com/doc/307072107/MS-Pres-Mason-Dixon-March-2016

Nothing involving Sanders. Note that the results for Kasich are beginning to converge upon those for Cruz as I note also in California, a very different state. Two states do not make a trend, no matter how different their politics. But I am not so sure now that Kasich has a real chance of winning the Presidency if nominated.

Note that in a three-way race between Clinton, Trump, and a third-party or independent conservative, Hillary Clinton wins Mississippi. Add the Carter states to Obama 2008 and perhaps exchange Utah and Arizona... perhaps some Upper Plains states which are extremely conservative in personal lifestyles... for Texas and you get an image of America with something that hasn't happened since 1964, a Democrat getting all but one hundred or so electoral votes.



Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 04, 2016, 09:20:18 PM
Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania. Registered voters.


In head-to-head general election matchups:

    Kasich buries Clinton 51 - 35 percent;
    Kasich tops Sanders 46 - 40 percent;
    Clinton gets 45 percent to Trump's 42 percent;
    Clinton ties Cruz 43 - 43 percent;
    Sanders tops Trump 48 - 40 percent;
    Sanders beats Cruz 46 - 38 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2341

Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 06, 2016, 05:34:18 AM
Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania

In head-to-head general election matchups:

    Kasich buries Clinton 51 - 35 percent;
    Kasich tops Sanders 46 - 40 percent;
    Clinton gets 45 percent to Trump's 42 percent;
    Clinton ties Cruz 43 - 43 percent;
    Sanders tops Trump 48 - 40 percent;
    Sanders beats Cruz 46 - 38 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2341

------

Registered voters. Pennsylvania always looks close in Presidential and Senatorial elections as a possible pick-up for Republicans. GOTV campaigns in urban areas usually pull the Keystone State away from the Republicans, making the state a money pit for the GOP. Republicans establish the vote early in the more rural parts of the state, but GOTV campaigns have little potential for turning out enough GOP-leaning voters in the general election. They are extremely useful (and for Pennsylvania, necessary) for getting out the Democratic vote heavily concentrated in medium-to giant cities and their aging suburbs in Pennsylvania

 

Unlike polls in California and Mississippi, this one has yet to show John Kasich going toward the level of support that one associates with Ted Cruz.  

Virginia, Christopher Newport University:

Clinton 44 - Trump 35

Only matchup shown.

It's obviously far easier to get 50 from 44 than from 35.

90% of Democrats will support  Hillary Clinton in the general election; only 68% of Republicans will support Donald Trump in the general election.

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/april%207%202016%20report-final.pdf

In a state split nearly evenly D-R, the gap of intra-party support bodes ill for Donald Trump.

Wisconsin
Clinton (D) 53%
Trump (R) 47%

Clinton (D) 49%
Trump (R) 41%
Johnson (L) 10%

http://www.oann.com/pollwisconsin/ 




Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Nathan Towne on April 06, 2016, 06:03:27 PM
Unbelievable. Look how Donald Trump is polling nationally in these preliminary polls. What a disgrace that campaign is.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 08, 2016, 03:10:13 PM

Quinnipiac, Pennsylvania

In head-to-head general election matchups:

    Kasich buries Clinton 51 - 35 percent;
    Kasich tops Sanders 46 - 40 percent;
    Clinton gets 45 percent to Trump's 42 percent;
    Clinton ties Cruz 43 - 43 percent;
    Sanders tops Trump 48 - 40 percent;
    Sanders beats Cruz 46 - 38 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2341

------

Registered voters. Pennsylvania always looks close in Presidential and Senatorial elections as a possible pick-up for Republicans. GOTV campaigns in urban areas usually pull the Keystone State away from the Republicans, making the state a money pit for the GOP. Republicans establish the vote early in the more rural parts of the state, but GOTV campaigns have little potential for turning out enough GOP-leaning voters in the general election. They are extremely useful (and for Pennsylvania, necessary) for getting out the Democratic vote heavily concentrated in medium-to giant cities and their aging suburbs in Pennsylvania

 

Unlike polls in California and Mississippi, this one has yet to show John Kasich going toward the level of support that one associates with Ted Cruz.  

Virginia: Christopher Newport University:

Clinton 44 - Trump 35

Only matchup shown.

It's obviously far easier to get 50 from 44 than from 35.

90% of Democrats will support  Hillary Clinton in the general election; only 68% of Republicans will support Donald Trump in the general election.

http://cnu.edu/cpp/pdf/april%207%202016%20report-final.pdf

In a state split nearly evenly D-R, the gap of intra-party support bodes ill for Donald Trump.  

Maryland, Washington Post:

Clinton 63, Trump 28

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-university-of-maryland-poll-march-30-april-3-2016/2008/


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 08, 2016, 09:30:45 PM
Potential three-way match-ups involving third-Party conservatives or libertarians (but not Greens!), named or unnamed, against the Democratic nominee and Donald Trump can go here.

I begin with blank maps. 

(
)

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
unnamed or identified libertarian or conservative alternative (I)

(
)

Sanders (D)
Trump (R)
unnamed or identified libertarian or conservative alternative (I)

Democrat 50% or more (saturation 70%)
Democrat 45% up to 50%, up 5% or more  (saturation 60%)
Democrat 45% up to 50%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 50%)
Democrat 38% up to 45%, up 5% or more  (saturation 40%)
Democrat 38% up to 45%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 30%)


Trump 50% or more (saturation 70%)
Trump 45% up to 50%, up 5% or more  (saturation 60%)
Trump 45% up to 50%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 50%)
Trump 38% up to 45%, up 5% or more  (saturation 40%)
Trump 38% up to 45%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 30%)

Independent or third-Party nominee, any level (saturation 30%)

All else white

This line becomes irrelevant if Cruz or Kasich wins the Republican nomination.

 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 08, 2016, 09:39:47 PM
Wisconsin

Clinton (D) 49%
Trump (R) 41%
Johnson (L) 10%

http://www.oann.com/pollwisconsin/

Mississippi, Mason-Dixon.


Trump 39%
Clinton 43%
Third Party 13%

https://www.scribd.com/doc/307072107/MS-Pres-Mason-Dixon-March-2016


Arizona:

Trump (R): 38%
Clinton (D): 38%
Other/Undecided: 24%


Sanders (D): 39%
Trump (R): 36%
Other/Undecided: 25%

The poll was conducted March 7 to 11 and surveyed 701 likely Arizona voters.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2016/03/17/arizona-poll-trump-clinton-tied-in-november.html

Florida -- Not usable because Bloomberg has stated that he will not run:

Hillary Clinton (D): 41%
Donald Trump (R): 42%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 10%

Bernie Sanders (D): 34%
Donald Trump (R): 45%
Michael Bloomberg (I): 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_22516.pdf

Before this, Donald Trump is frequently the "independent" alternative. No further backtracking unless you can show that I( missed something relevant.



(
)

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
unnamed or identified libertarian or conservative alternative (I)

(
)

Sanders (D)
Trump (R)
unnamed or identified libertarian or conservative alternative (I)

Democrat 50% or more (saturation 70%)
Democrat 45% up to 50%, up 5% or more  (saturation 60%)
Democrat 45% up to 50%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 50%)
Democrat 38% up to 45%, up 5% or more  (saturation 40%)
Democrat 38% up to 45%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 30%)


Trump 50% or more (saturation 70%)
Trump 45% up to 50%, up 5% or more  (saturation 60%)
Trump 45% up to 50%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 50%)
Trump 38% up to 45%, up 5% or more  (saturation 40%)
Trump 38% up to 45%, up less than 4.9%  (saturation 30%)

Independent or third-Party nominee, any level (saturation 30%)

All else white

This line becomes irrelevant if Cruz or Kasich wins the Republican nomination.

 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Nathan Towne on April 12, 2016, 01:56:22 PM
Head to head matchups polls.

Connecticut: Clinton 48, Trump 40 Clinton +8
Connecticut: Cruz vs. Clinton Emerson Clinton 52, Cruz 31 Clinton +21
Connecticut: Kasich vs. Clinton Emerson Kasich 49, Clinton 38 Kasich +11
Connecticut: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 49, Trump 40 Sanders +9
Connecticut: Cruz vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 55, Cruz 30 Sanders +25
Connecticut: Kasich vs. Sanders Emerson Kasich 48, Sanders 40 Kasich +8


New York: Clinton 61, Trump 32 Clinton +29
New York: Cruz vs. Clinton NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 61, Cruz 31 Clinton +30
New York: Kasich vs. Clinton NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 53, Kasich 38 Clinton +15
New York: Trump vs. Sanders NBC/WSJ/Marist Sanders 64, Trump 31 Sanders +33
New York: Cruz vs. Sanders NBC/WSJ/Marist Sanders 65, Cruz 28 Sanders +37
New York: Kasich vs. Sanders NBC/WSJ/Marist Sanders 57, Kasich 35 Sanders +22


Massachusetts: Trump vs. Clinton Western NE University Clinton 62, Trump 26 Clinton +36
Massachusetts: Cruz vs. Clinton Western NE University Clinton 63, Cruz 30 Clinton +33
Massachusetts: Trump vs. Sanders Western NE University Sanders 70, Trump 23 Sanders +47
Massachusetts: Cruz vs. Sanders Western NE University Sanders 71, Cruz 24 Sanders +47




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 12, 2016, 03:23:03 PM
Connecticut:

John Kasich (R): 49%
Hillary Clinton (D): 38%

Hillary Clinton (D): 48%
Donald Trump (R): 40%

Hillary Clinton (D): 52%
Ted Cruz (R): 31%


http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_a087ef7328134746b90ffd87f80c439e.pdf

Maryland -- Marist, WRC-TV (Washington DC, NBC-4

Clinton (D) 63%
Trump (R) 27%

Clinton (D) 55%
Kasich (R) 38%

Clinton (D) 60%
Cruz (R) 31%


http://media.nbcwashington.com/documents/NBC4_Marist+Poll_Maryland_+Presidential_Annotated+Questionnaire_April+2016.pdf

Massachusetts:

Clinton-Trump: 62-26%  (D+36)
Clinton-Cruz: 63-30% (D+33)


http://patch.com/massachusetts/boston/new-mass-poll-shows-sanders-clinton-cream-trump-hypothetical-head-head-0

New York (State), PPP:

Hillary Clinton (D): 55%
Donald Trump (R): 35%

Hillary Clinton (D): 56%
Ted Cruz (R): 30%

Hillary Clinton (D): 50%
John Kasich (R): 36%



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/new-york-hates-ted-cruz-trump-clinton-lead-big.html

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.






Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 12, 2016, 03:26:55 PM
Connecticut:

Sanders (D) 65%
Trump (R) 26%

Sanders (D) 55%
Kasich (R) 36%

Sanders (D) 63%
Cruz (R) 28%

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_a087ef7328134746b90ffd87f80c439e.pdf

Maryland -- Marist, WRC-TV (Washington DC, NBC-4

Sanders (D) 65%
Trump (R) 26%

Sanders (D) 55%
Kasich (R) 36%

Sanders (D) 63%
Cruz (R) 28%


http://media.nbcwashington.com/documents/NBC4_Marist+Poll_Maryland_+Presidential_Annotated+Questionnaire_April+2016.pdf




Massachusetts:

Sanders-Trump: 70-23% (D+47)
Sanders-Cruz: 71-24% (D+47)

http://patch.com/massachusetts/boston/new-mass-poll-shows-sanders-clinton-cream-trump-hypothetical-head-head-0

Would Massachusetts try to secede if Trump or Cruz got elected over Sanders?


New York (state), PPP:

 
Bernie Sanders (D): 58%
Donald Trump (R): 33%

Bernie Sanders (D): 59%
Ted Cruz (R): 27%

Bernie Sanders (D): 54%
John Kasich (R): 35%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/new-york-hates-ted-cruz-trump-clinton-lead-big.html

Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 13, 2016, 04:53:23 PM
Georgia: Lake Research Partners


http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/LRPmemo.GeorgiaDemocraticParty.F.041116.pdf

Clinton 50
Trump 37

Clinton 47
Cruz 40

I don't know if I fully trust this one. Unless the Republican nominee is a complete turkey, no way do I expect Georgia to go for the Democratic nominee for President. On the other hand, Georgia leans about as R as Missouri, where a recent poll shows Clinton leading Trump. Georgia is more D (and probably more elastic) than Mississippi and Texas, where Hillary Clinton is within the margin of error in another poll. (Not that I trust any poll of Texas!)  Georgia is not much more R than North Carolina, and the most recent poll of North Carolina shows Clinton  leading both Trump and Cruz. But not this much!

But this said, Georgia was Barack Obama's second-closest loss in both 2008 and 2012. I'd like to see another poll corroborate or contradict this. If Hillary Clinton is winning Georgia, then she is on the way to winning at least 390 electoral votes.  Dislike this poll? then just wait for another. The most recent poll of Georgia is stale.

Nothing on Kasich or Sanders.

New York, Emerson University.


Hillary Clinton (D): 55% vs. Donald Trump (R): 36% (D+19%)
Bernie Sanders (D): 51% vs. Donald Trump (R): 37% (D+14%)
Hillary Clinton (D): 59%  vs. Ted Cruz (R): 28% (D+31%)
Bernie Sanders (D): 58% vs. Ted Cruz (R): 27% (D+31%)
Hillary Clinton (D): 49% vs.  John Kasich (R): 39%  (D+10%)
 
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_9be49212aa1f45efb06ed31243e26ad1.pdf

New polling from the battleground state of Utah....

Trump 38%
Clinton 38%
.
Cruz 67%
Clinton 26%
.
Kasich 69%
Clinton 23%



http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.







Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 18, 2016, 10:35:38 AM
Don't be surprised if this is the last poll that you see of Massachusetts for a very long time. No change is necessary for any map.


Clinton-Trump: 62-26%  (D+36)
Clinton-Cruz: 63-30% (D+33)
Sanders-Trump: 70-23% (D+47)
Sanders-Cruz: 71-24% (D+47)

http://patch.com/massachusetts/boston/new-mass-poll-shows-sanders-clinton-cream-trump-hypothetical-head-head-0

This is consistent with a Democratic landslide, at least outside the Mountain and Deep South for Hillary Clinton, as it is close to the level for Obama in 2008. With Sanders.... not quite what LBJ got in Massachusetts (76%) in 1964.

Massachusetts is a swing state only in a Democratic disaster as with Eisenhower or Reagan.

Massachusetts, going back:

Year, Massachusetts, USA

2012   60 51
2008   62 53
2004   62 48
2000   58 49
1996   61 48*
1992   47 43*
1988   54 45
1984   48 41   (the Republican won MA!)
1980   42 43* (the Republican won MA!)
1976   56 50
1972   54 37  (the only state that Nixon lost!)
1968   54 43*
1964   76 61
1960   60 50
1956   40 42
1952   45 44


*significant third-party nominee   
italic -- Democratic nominee from Massachusetts

...Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan are the only Republican nominees for President who won Massachusetts in the last 90 years; they both won it twice.

   


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 18, 2016, 12:15:19 PM
New polling from the battleground state of Utah (Dan Jones)....

Sanders 49%
Trump 34%
.
Cruz 63%
Sanders 32%
.
Kasich 64%
Sanders 30%

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-

Maryland:



Sanders 62, Cruz 24 (D+38)
Sanders 60, Trump 29 (D+31)
Sanders 52, Kasich 32 (D+20)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/ppps-new-maryland-poll-finds-both-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-with-double-digit-leads-heading-into-next-weeks-primary-el.html

North Carolina:


Trump 38
Sanders 51

Cruz 39
Sanders 49

http://elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/041916_ElonPoll_FullReport.pdf

Wisconsin, St. Norbert


Sanders 50, Cruz 40
Sanders 52, Trump 33

http://www.wpr.org/sites/default/files/Wisconsin%20Survey%20Spring%202016.pdf?platform=hootsuite

WMUR-TV, ABC-9 southern New Hampshire, U-New Hampshire


Sanders: 58
Trump: 31

Sanders: 61
Cruz: 30

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2016_spring_preselect042116.pdf



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 19, 2016, 06:03:50 PM
Maryland:

Clinton 58, Cruz 24 (D+34)
Clinton 61, Trump 28 (D+33)
Clinton 54, Kasich 33 (D+21)


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/ppps-new-maryland-poll-finds-both-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-with-double-digit-leads-heading-into-next-weeks-primary-el.html

North Carolina:

Trump 39
Clinton 45

Clinton 41
Cruz 44


http://elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/041916_ElonPoll_FullReport.pdf

North Carolina was on the fringe of competitiveness in an election close to being close in 2012.

Wisconsin, St. Norbert


Sanders 50, Cruz 40
Sanders 52, Trump 33

Clinton (D) 46%
Trump (R) 34%

Clinton (D) 45%
Cruz (R) 44%

http://www.wpr.org/sites/default/files/Wisconsin%20Survey%20Spring%202016.pdf?platform=hootsuite



http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9193-

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.








Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 23, 2016, 08:27:31 AM
WMUR-TV (ABC-9 southern New Hampshire), U-New Hampshire:

Clinton: 50
Trump: 31

Clinton: 48
Cruz: 34

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2016_spring_preselect042116.pdf

New Jersey -- Rutgers/Eagleton. Poll from early April that we missed. We get few polls from New Jersey, so we need to show this one.

Clinton 50%
Trump 36%

Clinton 50%
Cruz 35%

Clinton 43%
Kasich 43%

Sanders 55%
Trump 34%

http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/rutgers-eagleton-2016-presidential-election-Apr2016/

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.










Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 23, 2016, 08:32:25 AM
http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/rutgers-eagleton-2016-presidential-election-Apr2016/

New Jersey -- Rutgers/Eagleton. Poll from early April that we missed. We get few polls from New Jersey, so we need to show this oen.


Sanders 55%
Trump 34%



Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 23, 2016, 08:40:13 AM
Polls involving Sanders (who needs to win about 70% of all remaining delegates to win the Democratic Party's nomination for President, which is the only way that one wins in a binary race) and Kasich (at best a compromise choice between Cruz or Trump supporters after several balloting failures by both, which will probably not look as good in November 2016 as it does now) may be losing current relevance. But note that I say "current".  I shall have some more explanation after posting some maps here, so please do not discuss this post yet.  


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or someone leading with less than 40%.

This is a rough estimate of how I see a 2020 election involving a Republican President who wins in 2016 but has a failed Presidency. (Really, I'd concede Utah to the Republicans but allot Georgia and Missouri to the Democratic nominee). Anybody who believes that with the states filled in as they are that the Republican nominee has a chance of winning Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Minnesota, Oregon, Rhode Island, or Vermont in 2020 even in a good year for Democrats has a better chance of making a successful a prediction of a crippling snowstorm in Honolulu on Election Day. The real blank spaces are for the Mountain and Deep South and for the Northern Plains, places now very conservative. These places have their limits to offense to sensibilities or to abject failure of a President.  

As is my discussion of any electoral theory, I usually offer the other face of the coin, so to speak. Please do not discuss this map yet.

Before I drop polls involving John Kasich, I need to discuss what the binary matchups between Kasich and Clinton really show. It may not be how the 2016 election goes.  This is Clinton vs. Kasich under the best possible situation for Kasich in which Kasich wins the nomination easily and is able to win the Presidency with a quiet campaign in which he says nothing controversial and she exposes characteristics that a big chunk of the electorate despises. Nobody has gotten the chance to win an election that way since the 1990s, and this year will be no exception. John Kasich will obviously win the Republican nomination, if at all, after a protracted and exhausting struggle that compels him to say things that will offend people who think Cruz and Trump unacceptable. In the mean time, Democrats have an effective get-out-the-vote drive in the autumn that swings the door shut on some states that look like swing states early but usually go Democratic (like Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) and pick up some others that went to both George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

I doubt that Kasich wins the election if nominated. If he successfully appeals to Cruz and Trump voters in the primaries he gives Democratic-leaning independents good cause to vote for the Democratic nominee.

So what do  the current matchups of Kasich vs. Clinton really mean?

If the Democratic nominee in 2016 becomes a failure as President, then we might see an analogy to 1980 or a partisan inverse of 1932, when the failed President loses to a challenger who makes a largely-positive campaign with care to avoid saying troublesome things except what everyone knows about the troubled incumbent President.

Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or someone leading with less than 40%.

A landslide in electoral votes like those of 1932 and 1980 is practically impossible because the incumbent President will still win California and New York, which together combine for 84 electoral votes, which is more than Hoover got with six states and 59 electoral votes, let alone the six states and DC that got Jimmy Carter 49 electoral votes. But let me guess what a 44-state landslide for a Republican looks like in 2000 if one concedes four other states and the District of Columbia. 

(OK, I'm really taking this theme to "Future Presidential Elections", so you can discuss it there, too, and probably more competently and with more relevance).


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 23, 2016, 06:37:34 PM
INDIANA, which rarely gets polled. WTHR-TV (NBC-13, Indianapolis), Howey Politics
Conducted April 18-21, MoE +/- 4.3%

Trump 47%
Clinton 39%

Cruz 53%
Clinton 36%

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/poll-indiana-trump-hillary-clinton-222316

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.











Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 23, 2016, 07:40:14 PM
^You colored IN blue on the Clinton vs. Kasich map, not on the Clinton vs. Trump map.

Thank you. Noted and corrected.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 24, 2016, 09:06:53 AM
()

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-look-set-to-build-on-lead-in-pennsylvania-primary-poll-shows-1461502801


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.











Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 25, 2016, 03:49:48 PM
Arizona. Rocky Mountain Poll, which you can hold suspect as it projected Obama to win Arizona at one point in 2012.  

Basically, Donald Trump is the worst match by the GOP in Arizona since... Thomas E. Dewey, who lost to Truman almost 54-44. Dole actually got a higher percentage of the popular vote in Arizona in 1996 than did Dewey in 1948 -- having to compete with Ross Perot for votes.


Senator Bernie Sanders beats all of the GOP contenders by: 54% to 33%
over Trump, 48 % to 34% over Cruz and by 47% to 33% over Kasich.

Democrat Hillary Clinton also bests Trump by a narrower 42% to 35% but then loses in Arizona to Ted Cruz by 43% to 38% and trails John Kasich by 44% to 32%

http://www.brcpolls.com/16/RMP%202016-II-04.pdf

North Carolina, PPP

Quote
(T)he Presidential race looks like it will once again be a toss up in the Tar Heel state. Hillary Clinton ties Donald Trump at 44% head to head, and leads Ted Cruz 45/40. This continues a trend we've been finding a lot lately of Cruz being even more unpopular than Trump. Cruz has a -35 net favorability spread in North Carolina (24/59) which makes Trump's -25 (33/58) look good in comparison. The Republican who would be strongest in the state is John Kasich who leads Clinton 46/39 and Sanders 43/41 but that seems relatively immaterial at this point. Sanders would lead Cruz 46/38 and Trump 46/43.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/north-carolina-senate-race-remains-close.html


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.












Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 25, 2016, 04:05:48 PM
Pennsylvania: Marist, Wall Street Jounal

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-look-set-to-build-on-lead-in-pennsylvania-primary-poll-shows-1461502801

Arizona, Rocky Mountain Poll. See above for Hillary Clinton.

North Carolina, PPP, Also see above on Hillary Clinton. 


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 27, 2016, 04:11:56 PM
The polling that now counts.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

Here's my projection based upon 270 to Win:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Mw6RE (http://www.270towin.com/maps/Mw6RE)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

Deep red -- out of contention, strong D
Medium red -- fringe of contention, weak D
Gray -- in contention
Light blue -- fringe of contention, weak R
Dark blue -- out of contention, strong R.

I have seen two polls showing Utah, arguably the most unlikely state for a Democratic win in most years (Utah seems to be a well-run state, which is an excellent situation for incumbents), TIED. I am relying on behavior in recent years to suggest that Kansas has a deeply-divided Republican Party and that that could be a disaster in the making... although I see no evidence of such yet in polling. Louisiana elected a Democratic Governor last year. I really trust no poll of Texas, and one in Mississippi was really close. Indiana is just too close to suggest that Donald Trump can win nationally. 

In any event I see Democrats having little chance of losing any of 257 electoral votes and Republicans having little chance of losing 147. (OK -- the Republican (Trump) has to win just about everything in blue and gray to become the next President.

Hillary Clinton can win, in order of increasing difficulty and likelihood (and I am trying to avoid overkill):

1. Colorado and either Iowa or Nevada -- barest win possible for Obama in 2012. These states are about PVI D+1 to D+2.
2. Virginia -- possible tipping-point state. The state is just about PVI 0
3. Ohio -- the current bellwether state is just more than enough to win.  Kasich was going to win Ohio -- big. PVI R+2
4. Florida -- Obama's closest win in 2012, and demographics will not help Republicans. PVI R+3.
5. Arizona and Colorado -- if Hillary Clinton wins Arizona, then she is also winning Colorado, which has fewer Mormons and more Mexican-Americans. Trump has said much to offend Mexican-Americans and he is the worst cultural match for Mormons since at least Thomas E. Dewey in 1948.
6. Iowa, Nevada, and NE-02. Having Greater Omaha decide who becomes the next President of the United States is in fact possible. Also unlikely.

I can dismiss the following states from consideration:

North Carolina is enough, but if Hillary Clinton is winning North Carolina, then she is also winning Virginia, which is also enough.

Georgia is enough, too, but if Hillary Clinton is winning Georgia she is also winning North Carolina and Virginia.

Utah, should Trump lose it,  indicates that he has also lost Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada.

Missouri indicates not only that she has won Iowa; but also Ohio and Virginia; likely Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina; and  probably Georgia (surprisingly similar in political orientation). States in the Mountain and Deep South might not be so certain for Republicans as they were against Barack Obama.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 27, 2016, 11:17:33 PM
PPP will be polling West Virginia this weekend.

Would someone please poll Iowa, Minnesota, and Virginia? It's been a while.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Dr. Arch on April 27, 2016, 11:22:14 PM
PPP will be polling West Virginia this weekend.

Would someone please poll Iowa, Minnesota, and Virginia? It's been a while.

Thanks for your contributions pb. I always love looking at your maps as they are updated.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: LLR on April 28, 2016, 08:30:58 PM

This looks good, except for the fact that this is not an ordinary year, it's not close, and thus Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada (and arguably Virginia and Colorado) are lean D certainly and SC is at least Lean R if not pure tossup.

If you apply demographics based on national polls, SC is about even.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on April 28, 2016, 09:46:22 PM
I don't see Utah for Hillary. ;)


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on April 28, 2016, 09:50:44 PM
Quote
it's not close, and thus Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada

Trumps problem in a nutshell. The Firewall is already locked down. Look at the ECs that are already writeoffs for him, PA, MI, WI, MN, IL, NM, CA, OR, WA, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, NH, VT and ME. That leaves, NV, VA, OH, IA, FL.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 28, 2016, 11:04:21 PM

Two polls suggesting a virtual tie.

Donald Trump is doing much worse than other potential Republican nominees in Utah and much worse than Republicans in other statewide elections. That is a warning sign of a big difference.

So what does it matter if Donald Trump ends up winning Utah 53-47 instead of 70-30? Maybe not the piddling six electoral votes of Utah... but it also means that he is a horrible cultural match for LDS voters in other states -- like Arizona.  Gut the usual Mormon support for any Republican, and a state that has lots of Mormons might not lean so Republican. Donald Trump could bet a double-whammy in Arizona as the large Mexican-American population votes strongly against him.

The real problem for Donald Trump isn't Utah; it's Arizona. But if he loses Arizona he is also losing Nevada and Colorado as well -- and the Presidential election.

For another analogue, just consider another state that usually goes Republican: Indiana. If it goes 52-48 R, then what does that mean? Basically, the Republican has lost Ohio.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on April 29, 2016, 06:13:51 PM

This looks good, except for the fact that this is not an ordinary year, it's not close, and thus Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada (and arguably Virginia and Colorado) are lean D certainly and SC is at least Lean R if not pure tossup.

If you apply demographics based on national polls, SC is about even.

I'm deliberately charitable to Donald Trump so far on estimating what the battleground states are.

 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 01, 2016, 02:25:31 AM
Minnesota.

Clinton 48
Trump 35

Clinton 49
Cruz 40

Sanders 53
Trump 38

Sanders 50
Cruz 36

http://stmedia.startribune.com/documents/Minnesota+Poll+presidential+race.pdf

Another involving Indiana, this time by Marist:

Trump (R) vs. Clinton (D): 48%-41% (R+7)
Cruz (R) vs. Clinton (D): 50%-43% (R+7)
Kasich (R) vs. Clinton (D): 56%-39% (R+17)

Trump (R) vs. Sanders (D): 47%-46% (R+1)
Sanders (D) vs. Cruz (R): 48%-45% (D+3)
Kasich (R) vs. Sanders (D): 47%-46% (R+1)

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/donald-trump-leads-cruz-15-points-crucial-indiana-race-n565356


Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 01, 2016, 02:28:26 AM
Minnesota.

Sanders 53
Trump 38

Sanders 50
Cruz 36

http://stmedia.startribune.com/documents/Minnesota+Poll+presidential+race.pdf

Indiana. Marist. Are we going to see lots of polls of Indiana this year?


Trump (R) vs. Sanders (D): 47%-46% (R+1)
Sanders (D) vs. Cruz (R): 48%-45% (D+3)
Kasich (R) vs. Sanders (D): 47%-46% (R+1)

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/donald-trump-leads-cruz-15-points-crucial-indiana-race-n565356

Ohio, PPP. I have much more to say below involving Hillary Clinton.  

Sanders 44 Trump 35
Kasich 47 Sanders 37
Sanders 45 Trump 41

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_50216.pdf

West Virginia, PPP:

Donald Trump (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D): 57%-30% (R+27)
Ted Cruz (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D): 44%-31% (R+13)
John Kasich (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D): 52%-27% (R+25)

Donald Trump (R) vs. Bernie Sanders (D): 56%-35% (R+21)
Ted Cruz (R) vs. Bernie Sanders (D): 40%-39% (R+1)
John Kasich (R) vs. Bernie Sanders (D): 48%-31% (R+17)

Obama approval rating: 28/67 (-39)
Clinton favorability: 23/71 (-48)
Trump favorability: 47/45 (+2)
Cruz favorability: 21/64 (-43)
Kasich favorability: 32/47 (-15)
Sanders favorability: 30/60 (-30)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/05/trump-sanders-lead-in-west-virginia.html

I have much to say about Donald Trump and the demise of the Democratic Party in West Virginia in a subsequent post.  When West Virginia ever goes Democratic again, it will be for a fiery populist who can address the economic issues of West Virginians.


Bernie Sanders vs. Ted Cruz

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. John Kasich

(
)


Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 02, 2016, 10:35:37 AM
Ohio, PPP.

Conducted April 26-27, MoE +/- 3.2%

Clinton 45%
Trump 42%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_50216.pdf

What I said of an Indiana poll in which Donald Trump and Ted Cruz get single-digit leads applies here: a Republican needs to win Indiana by a double-digit lead in Indiana to have a chance of winning Ohio and nationwide. Indiana is about R+12 in PVI; Ohio is typically about R+2. This is close, but it is far easier to get to 50% in a two-way race from 45% than it is to get to 50% in a two-way race from 42%.

Republicans are not doing all that well in Ohio.  Best news for Ohio Republicans is that Governor John Kasich has a 46% approval rating. That's good enough for likely re-election. But the US Senator up for re-election has an execrable approval rating (32%).  President Obama has an approval rating of 44%, indicating that he is not a real drag on Democratic efforts to win the state. He is successful enough as President that were it not for the 22nd Amendment and he chose to break the precedent that every President except FDR honored, he would have about an even chance of winning Ohio and a better-than even chance of winning nationwide.

Of increasingly-marginal interest, Hillary Clinton leads Ted Cruz 44-35 and approaches electability in Ohio against Governor Kasich 43-41.  For a Favorite Son, being up only two points in one's own swing State does not bode will in a national election.

My assessment that John Kasich would beat Hillary Clinton over the the last couple of months is now obsolete. A Favorite Son usually shows about a 10% advantage in statewide polling over other potential nominees in the same year or against those in preceding or following elections. Kasich is not doing significantly better than Donald Trump and not that much better than Romney 2012. (Between years? For a winner, George W. Bush did about 10% better than Dole did in Texas and about 10% better than John McCain would do in Texas. For a loser, George McGovern did much better in South Dakota than in most surrounding states (doing almost as well in South Dakota as in Minnesota).  

You see it here: the Kasich campaign for President is collapsing.   49% of Ohioans want Governor Kasich to abandon his Presidential campaign.  

Good news about the race for the US Senate in Ohio in 2018, though: Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown has only a 42% approval rating. The 2018 midterm elections could again be brutal for Democrats.  

Florida. This is by a Republican-leaning BUSINESS lobby.

Just read this prose:

Quote
Whether it’s Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, the Republican presidential nominee looks like a sure loser to Hillary Clinton in Florida because of the Republicans’ lack of popularity with crucial voting blocs in the state, according to a poll conducted last week by the business lobby Associated Industries of Florida.

Clinton would wallop Trump by 49-36 percent if the election were held today and she’d best Cruz 48-39 percent, according to the poll of 604 likely Florida voters.

“In this critical swing state, it is clear to us that Republicans continue to suffer substantial brand damage amongst all segments of the ascending electorate (younger voters, Hispanics & No Major Party voters) and this presidential campaign has clearly exacerbated these attitudes,” Ryan Tyson, a Republican who serves as the group’s vice president of political operations, wrote in a memo to his members.

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/florida/2016/05/8598048/florida-poll-republican-brand-damage-bolsters-clinton  

The words "panic" and "lament" come to my mind. This is by a group that clearly has a Republican bias, and I would not use it if it went the other way. To compensate for a loss of Florida and its 29 electoral votes, Republicans would have go  to back to the Bush vs. Gore map and swing Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
 

California.

Clinton: 56%
Trump: 34%

Clinton: 57%
Cruz: 29%

Clinton: 53%
Kasich: 34%

http://abc7.com/politics/poll-ca-voters-resigned-to-vote-for-donald-trump-vs-hillary-clinton/1318792/

Yawn.

Idaho -- Dan Jones

Quote
In a new survey by Dan Jones & Associates, Clinton would get 32 percent of the Idaho vote, Trump 49 percent, with 19 percent undecided.

Cruz would easily beat Clinton in a final election, 64-26 percent. Cruz would beat Sanders, 54-37 percent.

Kasich would beat Clinton, 63-22 percent, and the Ohio governor would beat Sanders, 56-34 percent.
Jones polled 603 Idahoans from April 8-19. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.99 percent.


Very weak showing for Donald Trump in what has long been one of the most reliable states for Republican nominees for President.  Other Republicans do about as expected for Idaho.

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 04, 2016, 10:01:48 AM
West Virginia, PPP:

Donald Trump (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D): 57%-30% (R+27)
Ted Cruz (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D): 44%-31% (R+13)
John Kasich (R) vs. Hillary Clinton (D): 52%-27% (R+25)

Obama approval rating: 28/67 (-39)
Clinton favorability: 23/71 (-48)
Trump favorability: 47/45 (+2)
Cruz favorability: 21/64 (-43)
Kasich favorability: 32/47 (-15)
Sanders favorability: 30/60 (-30)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/05/trump-sanders-lead-in-west-virginia.html

Twenty years ago I would have never expected West Virginia to be anywhere near the best state for a Republican nominee for President. In 1996, West Virginia gave Bill Clinton an absolute majority in the popular vote. It has since swung far to the Right in its political orientation.

No, it is not some Deep South state that has a legacy of Jim Crow. West Virginia seceded from Virginia during the Civil War. The state used to rely heavily upon mining and heavy industry for employment, such making it one of the most unionized states in America. Now its Republican-dominated State legislature has transformed the state into a Right to Work (for starvation wages) state.

West Virginia now has most of the demographic tendencies that favor Republicans today. It has small minority populations, it is a hotbed of Protestant fundamentalism, it has far-below-average measures in educational achievement, and it has few (and not really large) urban areas. It is a state largely of poor whites who might have voted for Carter in 1976 and 1980 (it was one of six states to vote for Carter in 1980!) and Bill Clinton twice.

Yes, it is poor. Income may be a bit higher than in Mississippi, but on measures of human development (The Measure of America, 2013-2014) it is third from the bottom. West Virginia is much whiter than its neighbor Virginia, and white people fare better than blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans throughout America. But if white privilege is a reality. it seems to have passed West Virginia by. White people in West Virginia are the least well-off white people in America. Black people in neighboring Maryland fare better than white people in West Virginia. Statistically an average white person in West Virginia would be better off to assimilate into the black population of Maryland. (Maryland has a large black middle class; West Virginia seems to not have much of a middle class of any kind). 

West Virginia may reflect political failure -- failure that began when the Democrats really dominated statewide politics. The Democrats failed to invest in education, public health, and even roads. Standing up for labor was enough. Now working people in West Virginia have a hostile government in which a coal baron Don Blankenship has been pulling the strings on West Virginia politics. (Has been -- because he is likely to go to prison, having been convicted of coverups involving mine safety in incidents that have led to mining catastrophes. This is the sort of person unlikely to get any sympathy from Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama isn't a soft-on-crime type, and having been a political enemy will not help Mr. Blankenship).

Don Blankenship? He had better do some heavy-duty praying for mercy from the Almighty, lest he discover some environment far nastier than a coal mine once he dies. 

Hillary Clinton(D) vs. Ted Cruz (R)

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. John Kasich

(
)


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 04, 2016, 02:37:22 PM
I am averaging in  a very flattering poll for Clinton in North Carolina (Civitas) and I found that Bernie Sanders was within the margin of error against Trump in Idaho.

With the departures of Ted Cruz and John Kasich from the Presidential race, we are down to this:

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Dr. Arch on May 04, 2016, 02:40:15 PM
Those are very pretty maps.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Badger on May 05, 2016, 09:42:14 AM
Not to throw fuel on the fire, but can we all just please acknowledge reality and just update a single Trump vs. Hillary map?

If anyone wants to make ongoing Trump vs. Bernie maps they should do it in alternative timeline thread.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 05, 2016, 09:54:02 AM

I did not make these maps for esthetic delight. I may take up painting, and I might consider maps a good object of painting. It wouldn't take much effort for me to do better than this.

Not to throw fuel on the fire, but can we all just please acknowledge reality and just update a single Trump vs. Hillary map?

If anyone wants to make ongoing Trump vs. Bernie maps they should do it in alternative timeline thread.

I go with formality. I am slow to drop candidacies for President, and generally don't do so until I see someone clinching the nomination or formally ending a campaign (as in "suspending" a campaign, endorsing a recent rival, or otherwise quitting). I have not seen anyone die while in a campaign, and that would count.

In any event, I have a use for the Kasich-Clinton polls -- suggesting how 2020 would turn out if the winning Democrat has a failed Presidency. Sanders-Trump? I show in that what a Trump collapse would look like in November. Sanders barely won in Indiana, keeping his campaign nominally alive. Trump won the winner-take-all Indiana primary, basically ending any chance for Cruz or Kasich.   


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers on May 05, 2016, 12:03:44 PM
AZ is gonna flip. Graham who has come out against Trump and McCain who refuses to endose Trump spell volumes


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 10, 2016, 01:12:30 PM
Quinnipiac, three big states

Florida

Hillary Clinton (D): 43%
Donald Trump (R): 42%

Ohio

Donald Trump (R): 43%
Hillary Clinton (D): 39%

Pennsylvania

Hillary Clinton (D): 43%
Donald Trump (R): 42%



Sanders vs. Trump:

Florida

Sanders (D): 44%
Trump (R): 42%

Ohio

Sanders (D): 43%
Trump (R): 41%

Pennsylvania

Sanders (D): 47%
Trump (R): 41%

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2345

Quinippiac seems to get some of the most R-favoring results in polling.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 11, 2016, 12:32:03 AM
Louisiana:

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LA-Presidential-Executive-Summary.pdf

Trump 52%
Clinton 36%
Third Party 4%
Undecided 8%

Trump 55%
Sanders 32%
Third Party 4%
Undecided 10%

Oregon -- Oregon Public Broadcasting.

Clinton 43
Trump 32

http://www.opb.org/news/series/election-2016/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-oregon-poll/



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.



[/quote]


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 12, 2016, 05:24:56 PM
PPP will do polling of Arizona this weekend.

Could someone please poll:

Arkansas
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Nebraska
Nevada
New Mexico
Tennessee
Virginia

both Dakotas


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 18, 2016, 05:34:24 AM


Atlanta Journal-Constitution; Hillary down 3 to Trump , Sanders up 4.

Utah: Dan Jones

Donald Trump 43%
Hillary Clinton 30%

Donald Trump 43%
Bernie Sanders 37%

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9518-

Tepid.

http://nmpoliticalreport.com/44100/clinton-leads-in-nm-in-three-way-race/

Clinton: 41%
Trump: 33%
Johnson: 14%

This is a three-way poll, and it shows how far behind Donald Trump will be in New Mexico.

http://nmpoliticalreport.com/44100/clinton-leads-in-nm-in-three-way-race/

Arizona, PPP:

The Presidential election is pretty competitive in Arizona at this point. Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton just 40-38, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. There's a significant 'Never Trump' contingent among Arizona Republicans. While Clinton gets 80% of the Democratic vote, Trump is only getting 68% of the GOP vote at this stage. That number tracks with our finding that just 65% of Republicans say they're comfortable with Trump as their nominee to 22% who say they aren't. When you narrow the field to just Clinton and Trump though, Trump's lead goes up to 45/41 because his share of the GOP vote increases to 77%. 15% of Republicans are undecided compared to 8% of Democrats, so if the party really unites around Trump eventually he'll get close to being up by the kind of margins Republicans are accustomed to in the state but for now it's tight.

WBUR poll of NH, conducted May 12-15:

http://s3.amazonaws.com/media.wbur.org/wordpress/1/files/2016/05/Topline-2016-05-WBUR-NH-General-1.pdf

initial preference:
Clinton 42%
Trump 40%

including leaners:
Clinton 44%
Trump 42%

...Could it be possible that what seemed like the "new normal" of the Democrats  and Republicans getting overwhelming advantages in most states that they win, with very few states being truly contested, could be  coming to an end? Could it be that Barack Obama is, whatever his virtues, the most polarizing Presidential nominee that America has ever had?

Hillary Clinton seems to be winning, but not by as great margins, most of the states that Barack Obama won, but by far narrower margins. She also seems to be losing much the same states as Barack Obama lost, but also by far smaller margins. Maybe one can impute that to people having a visceral dread and loathing of Barack Obama due to ethnicity  in some places and looking at policy and not ethnicity in other places.

Say what you want about Barack Obama being above average in just about all matters that concern most Americans (economic stewardship, a cautious but decisive foreign policy, avoidance of scandal and corruption,  respect for precedent, working well with the intelligence agencies and the Armed Forces, and taking the side of social progress on social issues as the political culture changes), Barack Obama is the most polarizing President since Lincoln.

Making any further comparisons between Barack Obama and Abraham Lincoln is blasphemy. The polarization in part represents campaign strategies of Barack Obama -- play well to crowds in medium to giant cities and their suburbs and abandon rural America. Except for Arizona, Texas, and Utah, such allows him the ability to win the most urban of states. It also ensures that he gets clobbered elsewhere. It also means that the Right can utterly destroy Democrats in Congressional elections in any Congressional district that is significantly rural.

Hillary Clinton is not as polarizing a politician as Barack Obama has been.  She is also more likely to win a state like Michigan by 6% instead of by 16% and lose a state like Tennessee by 6% than by 16%. Barack Obama played a beat-the-cheat strategy in 2008 and 2012, and Hillary Clinton seems to trust in being on the right side of history more than in any coherent political strategy.

     



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.






Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 18, 2016, 11:44:01 AM
Oklahoma, -Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates

Trump 48%
Clinton 28%
Johnson 6%
Undecided 18%

http://newsok.com/article/5498100

One of the last states from which I would expect a poll.

One of the last five states in which I would expect Hillary Clinton to have a chance. Trump will win it, but perhaps not by the 60% or higher levels that one usually expects.  

    



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(
)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.





[/quote]


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 19, 2016, 05:52:46 PM
Indiana: Bellwether Research, Trump 40, Clinton 31. 

Tennessee, Vanderbilt University:

Trump 44
Clinton 35
 



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump

(NO LONGER SHOWN)

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.





[/quote]
[/quote]


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 22, 2016, 03:46:10 PM
Florida, Ohio, CBS/YouGov

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/battleground-poll-ohio-and-florida-show-tight-races-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/


Florida:

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 42%

Ohio
Clinton - 44%
Trump - 39%

Wisconsin:

Clinton 43
Trump 31

http://www.federationforchildren.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/16296-WI-School-Choice-Memo-Slides.pdf

A state that was extremely close in 2000 and 2004 isn't close this time.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

How  much of a killer is Florida to the chance of Donald Trump for President? Based upon electoral votes that have not changed hands since the 2000 election, Democrats have an edge of 242-179. Florida has the 29 electoral votes that put Hillary Clinton over the top -- even without New Mexico, which is likely about as gone for the Republicans as Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, or West Virginia.
 

If Donald Trump loses Florida, then he must pick up some state that has not voted for any Republican after 1988.  So which state will it be? Iowa and New Mexico have gone for a Democratic nominee for President except in 2004, and New Hampshire has missed only once. New Mexico looks "gone" for the Republicans, and I don't have to put its electoral votes into the "iffy" category.  

So which state or combination of states would it be?

Addendum (4/25/2016): Not Wisconsin.




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 22, 2016, 11:20:34 PM
I got polled on Friday night in Michigan...so look for some polling of Michigan.

PPP offers a poll of North Carolina from this weekend.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Dr. Arch on May 22, 2016, 11:24:49 PM
I got polled on Friday night in Michigan...so look for some polling of Michigan.

PPP offers a poll of North Carolina from this weekend.

Fingers crossed. This will give us a good idea as to how things are in the ever pipe-dream for Trump that is Michigan.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 25, 2016, 03:40:38 PM
North Carolina, PPP:

Donald Trump (R): 43%
Hillary Clinton (D): 41%
Gary Johnson (L): 3%
Jill Stein (G): 2%

Donald Trump (R): 47%
Hillary Clinton (D): 43%

Bernie Sanders (D): 43%
Donald Trump (R): 40%
Gary Johnson (L): 3%
Jill Stein (G): 2%

Bernie Sanders (D): 48%
Donald Trump (R): 44%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/05/trump-burr-have-small-leads-in-north-carolina.html


I'm going with the three-way choice. Trump will need to win NC by about 7% to have a real chance nationwide.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Ljube on May 25, 2016, 06:07:13 PM

I'm going with the three-way choice. Trump will need to win NC by about 7% to have a real chance nationwide.


That's assuming a uniform swing. I think that assumption with Trump is wrong.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 25, 2016, 06:18:27 PM
2004, NC   -- 56  Dubya, 43 Kerry.
2000, NC   -- 56  Dubya, 43 Gore


To win the Presidency, Trump needs to win all the potentially-critical states of Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia... or make big strides in states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania that have not gone for a Republican nominee for President more than once since at least 1988.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on May 26, 2016, 07:28:42 AM
California, PPIC:

Conducted May 13-22, MoE +/- 4.3%
Clinton 49%
Trump 39%

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_LikelyVoters0516.pdf

Not so overwhelming.


New Jersey, Fairleigh-Dickinson University.

Clinton 48%
Trump 37%

http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160525/

Likewise.

Virginia, Gravis Marketing:

Clinton 45
Trump 41

Clinton 44
Trump 38
Johnson 6

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/virginia-election-poll052016/

I doubt that there will  be many states in which Johnson makes a difference.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 01, 2016, 06:18:11 PM

Glengarriff, Michigan

2-way:

43% Clinton (D)
39% Trump (R)

52% Sanders (D)
33% Trump (R)

3-way:

37% Clinton (D)
33% Trump (R)
12% Johnson (L)

...

Favourable Ratings:

50-40 Obama
43-41 Sanders
33-49 Snyder
31-57 Clinton
27-60 Trump

...I got polled on this one! I'm guessing that "43" is the floor for Clinton -- and in view of the large number of blacks in Michigan, "39" is close to the ceiling for Trump.

At this point I see three-way races in which Gary Johnson gets more than 10% of the vote in Michigan. He's probably getting more support from the usual voters for Republican nominees. 33% Johnson and 12% Trump is close to what we would expect near the top for the non-Democratic vote in Michigan.

California, Marist, NBC/Wall Street Journal

Clinton 55, Trump 31

https://www.scribd.com/doc/314520082/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-California-Poll-Annotated-Questionnaire-June-2016

Georgia, PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/06/trump-has-solid-lead-over-clinton-in-georgia.html

Trump: 45%
Clinton: 38%
Johnson: 6%
Stein: 2%


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 07, 2016, 11:23:30 AM
Quinnipiac, CT

Hillary Clinton (D): 45%
Donald Trump (R): 38%


http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2355

Florida, PPP: Trump 41, Clinton 40

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/06/pennsylvania-close-sanders-supporter-unity-would-make-it-not-close.html
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_60816.pdf

Clinton 41
Trump 40
Johnson 6
Stein 3

Democrats lead a generic ballot question for President 45/41

Head to head, they're tied at 44-44.

Sanders vs Trump head to head is 51-39.

Only 72% of Sanders supporters support Clinton. If Clinton got half of them, her lead over Trump head to head would be 47-40.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 10, 2016, 08:46:38 PM
Zogby, Kansas.

Clinton 43
Trump 36

http://www2.ljworld.com/weblogs/capitol-report/2016/jun/10/poll-shows-clinton-leading-in-kansas-bro/

Hillary Clinton (D): 47%
Donald Trump (R): 35%
Gary Johnson (L): 7%
Undecided: 12%

Clinton is leading 67-17 in Chicago and 47-35 in suburban Cook County. Trump, however, is ahead 42-38 in the suburban collar counties and leads by ten points, 45-35, among Downstate voters

http://www.rebootillinois.com/2016/06/10/featured-articles/richmiller/capitol-fax-poll-voters-blame-michael-madigan-for-budget-mess/59655/

Hard to believe. Don't like it? Just wait for another poll.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Dr. Arch on June 10, 2016, 10:30:35 PM
The continuity in that map after the addition of Zogby's results is absolutely splendid.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: LLR on June 11, 2016, 06:31:08 AM
Well at least if the Dems win KS, MO, and AZ while losing FL all their states will border each other, am I right guys?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 11, 2016, 11:29:29 AM
Can you add the MO poll as well?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=238495.0

Partisan pollster. I trust that Missouri will get polled again fairly often because of a contested Senate race.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 12, 2016, 01:30:57 AM
Utah:
   
   
Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play


Clinton: 35
Trump: 35
Johnson: 13


https://www.scribd.com/mobile/doc/315450242/Salt-Lake-Tribune-President-Poll

Hard to believe. Don't like it? Just wait for another poll.

...This poll consists solely of a three-way poll. How long will it be before those are the only polls that we see? Yes, I take Gary Johnson seriously.

...If the Kansas and Utah polls are valid, but the recent polls of Florida, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania were also valid, then  we may be seeing a Trump collapse.

California, Los Angeles Times:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-california-exit-poll-20160613-snap-story.html


Clinton: 61
Trump: 31

If Hillary Clinton has 192 electoral votes locked up officially before 11PM Eastern Time on November 8, then the seconds leading to the announcement of poll closings on the West Coast will be a countdown to the formal announcement of the first female President of the United States.

Virginia, PPP

48-45 without third parties
42-39 with third parties (I believe Gary Johnson is at 9%)

This was reported on the Rachel Maddow show and PPP says they will put out the PDF of the full poll tomorrow


Wisconsin, Marquette University Law School

Clinton 46
Trump 37

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/743131478964502528

Governor Scott Walker is very unpopular too (39-57), so the GOP is toxic in Wisconsin. President Obama gets an above-50 approval rating here, which is very good for a President in his eighth and final year.  

Iowa, PPP, Des Moines Register

Clinton 44, Trump 41. Nothing on third-party nominees. First poll of any kind in Iowa in a long time.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/06/16/poll-shows-clinton-grassley-leading-iowa/85947420/


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 15, 2016, 01:54:29 PM
It's about time for a Quinnipiac FLOP (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania) or CIVic display (Colorado, Iowa, Virginia.

PPP has been polling Virginia early this week. That should be interesting. 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 16, 2016, 08:27:55 AM
We seem to be seeing Obama-era leads trimmed, but states in which Obama got clobbered becoming much closer. Hillary Clinton does not excite the Democratic base as strongly as Barack Obama does -- but she does not rile the Republican base as Obama did.

Face it -- Barack Obama in 2008 was a masterful strategist as a campaigner. 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 17, 2016, 01:51:01 PM
Private pollster, Arizona: Trump 42, Clinton 39.

... very weak for a Republican in a state that has not gone for a Democrat in a true binary election since 1948. (Bill Clinton won the state with the aid of Ross Perot in 1996).

Washington, PPP:

Clinton 49, Trump 37. I doubt that anyone can dispute this estimate. No Johnson votes were suggested. 


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more




[/quote]


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 17, 2016, 03:11:23 PM
LOL@pbrower including that AZ poll from a "private pollster".

When it corroborates existing data I use it without much concern.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 21, 2016, 05:29:16 AM
Quinnipiac FLOP:

Florida: Clinton 47%, Trump 39%
Ohio: Clinton 40%, Trump 40%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 42%, Trump 41%

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2359

("FLOP" refers to the states polled)


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on June 21, 2016, 09:56:07 PM
I believe if we throw all the unpolled states, and Kansas to Trump, Hillary still wins. So she has a presumptive victory.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 22, 2016, 07:09:11 AM
I believe if we throw all the unpolled states, and Kansas to Trump, Hillary still wins. So she has a presumptive victory.

I would definitely not throw unpolled Delaware, Hawaii, Vermont, or the District of Columbia to Trump! Kansas and Utah could be fluke polls (I missed a poll for Utah).

It took me a long time in 2008 to believe that Virginia could be going for Barack Obama, as a state that had gone for the Democratic nominee only once since 1948, and then only in the LBJ blowout, was by all reasonable thought unlikely to go Democratic in anything near a close election. 2008 results proved that caution excessive.

Common wisdom suggests that Hillary Clinton will win all states and DC  that have gone to every Democratic nominee for President beginning in 1992 even in a bare loss (242 EV). She could still lose if she won only the states that have gone for the Democratic nominee in five of the last Presidential elections (New Mexico looks like a reasonably sure win, but Iowa and New Hampshire aren't quite so certain as even Pennsylvania). Such states put her at 257 electoral votes.

Maybe Donald Trump gets some political benefit from his involvement in the casino industry from Nevada voters; maybe he doesn't. I question whether working people in any industry put the strength of their businesses above their own welfare (wages and working conditions) at the polls unless their business is in trouble.

There are four simple ways at this point for Hillary Clinton to win the Presidency at this point, the same ones applicable in 2012 for Barack Obama:

1. Colorado and Nevada together -- large Hispanic populations that Trump has insulted.
2. Virginia, a state drifting Democratic.
3. Ohio, an R-leaning state that last voted 'wrong' in 1960.
4. Florida. Which poll do you believe?

That implies 15 (to 272), 13 (to 270), 18 (to 275), or 29 (to 286) electoral votes. A random chance of one in four of those four different states or combination of states (Colorado and Nevada will likely vote together) in the manner of coin flips would give Hillary Clinton one chance in 16 of losing the Presidential election.

By random chance, Donald Trump has slightly more than a 3% chance of winning the Presidency.

What of other states? North Carolina (15) would also work -- but Hillary Clinton does not win North Carolina without also winning Virginia. So would Georgia (16), but she wins Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina before winning Georgia. Arizona (12) and either Nevada, Colorado, or the Second Congressional District of Nebraska puts Hillary Clinton over the top -- but she is not winning Arizona without  winning both Colorado and Nevada. Neither Indiana (11) nor Missouri (10), let alone Kansas (6), is enough by itself to win the Presidency... but she is not winning Indiana without winning Ohio, or Missouri without winning Ohio and Virginia, both winning conditions.  There just aren't that many states analogous to Kansas in its demographics, so if Kansas goes to Hillary Clinton such might not matter anyway. The closest analogues to Kansas are the Dakotas and Nebraska... Kansas would be a good state to pull from the Republican Party.

So grouping the states:

Tier 1: 1992-2004 "Blue Wall"+ New Mexico   247
Tier 2: IA and NH (10)  257                                  
Tier 3: CO/NV, VA, OH, FL  (any of which wins for Hillary Clinton) 332  
Tier 4: NC, GA, MO, AZ, NE-02, IN, KS    403

Beyond this? utter collapse of Donald Trump as a candidate.
        

  



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 22, 2016, 02:32:51 PM


Arizona, by a pollster about whom I know nothing.

Conducted 6/20, MOE +/- 3.01%
Arizona, unknown pollster.

Clinton 46.5%
Trump 42.2%
Third party candidate 5.8%

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-2A45CA0283AA87B8

Don't like it? Wait for another poll.



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.





Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on June 23, 2016, 04:16:47 AM
Clinton's presumptive lead (minus Kansas) is 315-223.

Clinton's actual lead - minus states where she leads but within the MOE but giving Trump everything:

251-209. That doesn't include Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware and Hawaii as they have not been polled.

With these four as solid democrat, Clinton is up to 265.

All Clinton needs to have an actual lead in the polls is to win one of:

VA, OH, MO, AZ, IA, or PA. She just needs *one* of these, and any of these will do.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 23, 2016, 06:22:31 AM
Indeed, I am looking at this Presidential elections as one in which independent or Third Party candidates can give a huge advantage to one side or the other. This time the Libertarian candidacy can attract more orthodox Republicans who consider Donald Trump too risky for their tastes. This can offset the difference in the level of perceived competence as a campaigner between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. 

A Third-Party nominee who gets 10% of the vote in a state reduces the plurality necessary for winning the state. In a nearly-binary election, third-party nominees who garner exactly 2% of the vote make it possible for a winner of the state to get by with 49.01% of the vote while the loser get 48.99% of the vote. The prospect of such by no means definitive even a week before the election, but it fits the legal definition of winning the election. But give the third-party nominee 10% of the vote, and 46% wins.

Hillary Clinton may have a ceiling of 47% of the vote in Arizona, which no Democrat has won more than half the raw vote in since 1948. But let Gary Johnson get 6.61% of the raw vote in Arizona (which John Anderson got nationwide in 1980), and 47% wins Arizona. Let Gary Johnson fare as well  in Arizona as John Anderson did in 1980 (8.81%), and Hillary Clinton will need 45.1% of the popular vote in Arizona to win the state.

Obama got 44.85% of the popular vote in Arizona in 2012 despite doing practically no campaigning there. That is one of the better performances by a Democratic nominee for President in Arizona since 1948. He got 44.91% of the vote in 2008 in Arizona, which is very good against a Favorite Son.  But know well -- Mitt Romney did nothing to rile up the large Hispanic (mostly Mexican-American) vote in 2012. Donald Trump is far more toxic. Mexican-Americans have never experienced the animus that blacks have experienced, and many conservative Republicans have family relationships (in-laws or potential in-laws) with Mexican-Americans. Donald Trump or an in-law with whom you have some respect? 

Donald Trump has stirred up bigotry that does not exist, whether through design or incompetence. It stands to hurt his campaign in Arizona.   



Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 23, 2016, 04:20:00 PM
North Carolina, PPP:

Head-to-head, Trump vs. Clinton.

First the good news for Donald Trump: He leads Clinton by 2% in a binary contest.

Now for the bad news:

1. Being ahead by 2 in North Carolina by a Republican is not enough for winning nationally.  He needs to win the state by about 5% top have a real chance of winning the 2016 election nationwide.

2. The race that really counts is the three-way race between Clinton, Johnson, and Trump. Trump is tied in North Carolina, for which there is no good compensation.

Head to Head:
Trump - 48%
Clinton - 46%

4 Person Race:
Clinton - 43%
Trump - 43%
Johnson - 4%
Stein - 2%
Undecided - 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/06/presidential-race-knotted-in-nc-senate-race-close.html


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on June 25, 2016, 07:08:06 AM
He's down in AZ, PA, and MO. and needs all three just to stay level. Trump's in big trouble.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 25, 2016, 09:15:33 PM
Maine, U-New Hampshire

Hillary Clinton is up 7 overall in the state but nearly tied in the Second Congressional District.
Democratic presumptive presidential nominee Hillary Clinton led Republican Donald Trump in a new Maine poll from the Portland Press Herald, but both are deeply unpopular and Trump is within striking distance in the state’s northern half.

The poll doesn’t tell us much new about the 2016 race for the White House in Maine: Public sentiment, as measured by the new poll, barely moved since another March poll, but while the Democrat should be favored, Trump can’t be counted out to win at least one of the state’s four Electoral College votes.

Maine allocates two Electoral College votes to the overall winner and one each for the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district. A candidate who loses Maine’s overall vote could walk away with one Electoral College vote if he or she garnered a majority in one of the two congressional districts although that has never happened.

In the more rural and conservative 2nd Congressional District, it appears Trump has an opening this year.

Statewide, Clinton received 42 percent of support to Trump’s 35 percent in the poll of more than 609 Mainers. Another 19 percent said they’d vote for another candidate and 4 percent were undecided.

http://stateandcapitol.bangordailynews.com/2016/06/25/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-maine-but-race-tied-in-2nd-district/

Arkansas -- Hendrix College, Talk Business

Q: If the 2016 election were held today and your choices were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, for whom would you vote?

36%   Hillary Clinton
47%   Donald Trump
8%     Gary Johnson
9%     Don’t Know

Barack Obama is still a big drain on any possibility of any Democrat6 winning in Arkansas except where the population is majority-black. Even as his approval ratings go into the fifties, his approval is about 33% in Arkansas.

http://talkbusiness.net/2016/06/tbp-hendrix-poll-trump-holds-lead-over-clinton-in-arkansas/

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.






Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 26, 2016, 11:52:54 AM
He's down in AZ, PA, and MO. and needs all three just to stay level. Trump's in big trouble.

It gets worse if you are a Republican.  

CBS/YouGov, CO/FL/NC/WI. Likely voters, which usually expands to the benefit of Democrats in a Presidential year.

()

I am averaging an earlier poll for North Carolina which shows Hillary Clinton behind by an equal level.



Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.






Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 26, 2016, 12:02:14 PM
Arkansas should be blue on the map, not red.

Correction made promptly. 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 27, 2016, 12:45:07 PM


Texas, UT-Austin

Trump 41
Clinton 33
Other 19
Don't know 8

Trump 39
Clinton 32
Johnson 7
Other 14
Don't know 8

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/university-texas-texas-politics-project-poll-shows-trump-leading-clinton-amidst-signs-disunity

Not that I trust any Texas poll due to the built-in difficulties of polling the state. The 8% lead is very weak.  In recent years Texas suburbs have been very strongly Republican. What distinguishes these suburbs from older suburbs of Boston, Philadelphia, New York, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, and even San Francisco is that Texas suburbs are newer and have yet to have the great costs of maintenance that one associates with older infrastructure. Demolition of tract houses with their replacement by apartment complexes, a commonplace act with 70-year-old tract houses at their useful lives (those are post-WWII houses associated with returning war veterans, and those houses are now obsolete if not in poor shape) implies needs for the improvement of highways and sewers and expansion of waste-treatment facilities. Texas suburbs do not yet have those problems, so right-wing pols can still flourish there. See also Georgia and Arizona.

Republicans from Reagan on (Carter was the last Democrat to win Texas as a Democratic nominee -- forty years ago) have well fit Texas. Trump may be pushing the line.       


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.





[/quote]


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 28, 2016, 04:24:08 AM
  


AZ : http://aufc.3cdn.net/7df2e97a499c038248_9qm6bxwgr.pdf
Trump - 44 Clinton - 40

IA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/IowaResults616.pdf
Clinton - 41 Trump - 39

NH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/NHResults616.pdf
Clinton - 43 Trump - 39

OH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/OhioResults616.pdf
Clinton - 44 Trump - 40

PA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/PennsylvaniaResults616.pdf
Clinton - 46 Trump - 42

WI: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/WisconsinResults616.pdf
Clinton - 47 Trump - 38    


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

Averaging in Ohio and Arizona.


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.






Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Tender Branson on June 28, 2016, 02:04:44 PM
pbrower:

Trump is actually ahead in Missouri (from a Remington poll in May).

And Utah had a Trump+9 poll recently (Dan Jones).

Also, Kansas is only because of Zogby (a pollster which should probably be banned from this site, together with ARG).


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 28, 2016, 06:41:07 PM
pbrower:

Trump is actually ahead in Missouri (from a Remington poll in May).

Private pollster with no record for a special interest. Wait for another.

Quote
And Utah had a Trump+9 poll recently (Dan Jones).

But his lead is with a total under 40%. Even if it is a good poll, the data requires that I show it as a tie. I have seen polls showing Barack Obama up 37-36 in Tennessee, and he didn't get much over 37 in the Presidential election. A lead in a binary race with a total vote of less than 40%? That's inconclusive.   

Quote
Also, Kansas is only because of Zogby (a pollster which should probably be banned from this site, together with ARG).

Wait for another poll. This is the first, and it likely won't be the last.  Zogby is not a partisan poster and it has not been accused of fabricating results. Poor methodology? Maybe.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 29, 2016, 09:33:43 AM
AZ : http://aufc.3cdn.net/7df2e97a499c038248_9qm6bxwgr.pdf
Trump - 44 Clinton - 40

IA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/IowaResults616.pdf
Clinton - 41 Trump - 39

NH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/NHResults616.pdf
Clinton - 43 Trump - 39

OH: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/OhioResults616.pdf
Clinton - 44 Trump - 40

PA: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/PennsylvaniaResults616.pdf
Clinton - 46 Trump - 42

WI: http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/WisconsinResults616.pdf
Clinton - 47 Trump - 38

According to CNN:

51% to 37% in Florida
45% to 41% in Iowa
50% to 33% in Michigan
48% to 38% in North Carolina
46% to 37% in Ohio
49% to 35% in Pennsylvania
45% to 38% in Virginia

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/29/politics/battleground-polls-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html   

This doesn't seem believable, way too friendly to Clinton.  Also, North Carolina is more democratic than Virginia, which doesn't seem realistic.

Michigan: D+17
Florida: D+14
Pennsylvania: D+14
North Carolina: D+10
Ohio: D+9
Virginia: D+7
Iowa: D+4


It is all consistent with an R collapse in the Presidential race. Shifting the margins between Iowa and North Carolina would make some sense.

It is also consistent with CNN hiring a pollster that doesn't have an idea of what it is doing.

Michigan at D+17, Pennsylvania at D+14, and Virginia at D+7 are not far out of range of the 2008 election. I've seen some horrible polls for Trump in Florida; in a wave election what looks like an outlier could be a reality.

But even significant cutbacks of some of these results (let us say Florida to D+4, North Carolina to D+2, and Ohio to D+3 suggest one thing: Donald Trump is not going to be President of the United States. Michigan at D+17 indicates about a 55-45 margin for Hillary Clinton in a nationwide race.  

I'm dropping an obsolete poll in Missouri.

Averaging will take place.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)

Averaging in Ohio and Arizona.


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.






Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on June 29, 2016, 10:38:40 AM
New Hampshire:

ARG
New Hampshire
Clinton 47%
Trump 42%
Other 4%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/nh16-1.html

New Jersey -- Not likely to cause controversy.

http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2016/06/poll-clinton-has-huge-lead-over-trump-in-nj-103338
http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160629/

Clinton 52
Trump 31

Clinton 44
Trump 32
Johnson 9


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.







Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 05, 2016, 07:41:57 PM
pbrower:

Trump is actually ahead in Missouri (from a Remington poll in May).

And Utah had a Trump+9 poll recently (Dan Jones).

Also, Kansas is only because of Zogby (a pollster which should probably be banned from this site, together with ARG).

PPP will poll Missouri this weekend. My prediction: she lags Trump in a binary choice but wins in a Clinton-Johnson-Trump matchup. Your wait will not be long.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on July 06, 2016, 04:58:02 PM
Quote
It is all consistent with an R collapse in the Presidential race. Shifting the margins between Iowa and North Carolina would make some sense.

Yup. Trump is done.

Minus Florida I have Clinton at 245 EVs. Trump is 80 behind her.

Trump's only winning path is through Florida. His cap is 292-245.

Clinton's cap is 454.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: WVdemocrat on July 06, 2016, 09:38:24 PM
How the hell is Trump consistently leading in Nevada of all places?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 07, 2016, 03:31:25 AM
How the hell is Trump consistently leading in Nevada of all places?

One poll from November, and nothing since.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 07, 2016, 03:47:01 AM
California, Field Poll:

()

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article88085407.html

58-28 in a binary matchup. Close to Obama levels of support in 2008 and 2012 in what will be one of the dullest states for political news this year. Obama maxed out in California twice, and if Hillary Clinton wins as Obama did in California, she is likely winning nationwide.

With this likely margin in California, Donald Trump cannot win the nationwide popular vote.

Oregon:

Clinton 46
Trump 32
Undecided 22

This is actually a state where Johnson and Stein combined can cleave off about 10%

https://icitizen.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/OR-Weighted-Tabs-Public-1.pdf

A Vermont poll has Clinton up 15 over Trump with l3ess than 40%... but it is undeniably a three-way poll and not a binary matchup, so I am using it on the Clinton-trump-Johnson map.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.






[/quote]


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 11, 2016, 12:17:45 PM
How the hell is Trump consistently leading in Nevada of all places?

One poll from November, and nothing since.

That's over.

   
NV-Monmouth: Clinton +4

Don't have the full link, but I saw it on twitter.

https ://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/752548412046934021


Clinton 45%
Trump 41%

GOP: Trump 88-6
DEM: Clinton 92-3
IND: Trump 39-37

Kentucky:

()

Look at all the undecided. Because the leader has under 40%  my system calls this a tie. For the leader a 33-28 lead is practically worthless.  

IA -- Monmouth.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_071216/
http://www.monmouth.edu/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=40802209099

Trump 44
Clinton 42
Johnson 6
Stein 1
Other 2
Undecided 6

My system says that a lead of even 1% is valuable when one of the nominees is over 40%.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.








Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 11, 2016, 08:03:16 PM
lol@saying KY is tied. IIRC, you once said that polls with both candidates under 40% were useless and should be ignored.

Also, where is the Florida poll?

Tender, pls lock this thread.

Two junk pollsters.

Rick Scott up by 7? We have not seen that for a long time.

Besides, you can look at what I have to say of a lead with less than 40% in a binary race:

Quote
30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

Eight years ago I saw a poll of Tennessee that showed Barack Obama with a 39-37 lead. 39% is very close to what Senator Obama got in Tennessee that year. I simply consider a lead of 39-37 useless in view of that experience.


 


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 13, 2016, 08:24:04 AM
Quinnipiac poll of FL, OH, and PA:

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2365

Florida
Trump 42%
Clinton 39%

Ohio
Clinton 41%
Trump 41%

Pennsylvania
Trump 43%
Clinton 41%

Prepare to short-sell America or invest in foreign real estate should these polls reveal something about America.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/753273220200030208
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-or-even-midwest-battlegrounds-n608651

OH
Clinton 39
Trump 39

Clinton 38
Trump 35
Johnson 9
Stein 3

IA
Clinton 42
Trump 39

Clinton 37
Trump 37
Johnson 7
Stein 4

PA
Clinton 45
Trump 36

Clinton 43
Trump 35
Johnson 8
Stein 2

July 5-10, MOE +/-3.4%

The tie with an earlier poll in Iowa is actually a 1/2% lead for Hillary Clinton. Clinton gets a lead in a three-way poll in Ohio.


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.









Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 13, 2016, 11:07:37 PM
WI -- Marquette University Law School:

July 7 - July 10

Registered Voters

Clinton 43% (+1 since June)
Trump 37% (+2 since June)

Likely Voters

Clinton 45% (-1 since June)
Trump 41% (+4 since June)

The tie with an earlier poll in Iowa is actually a 1/2% lead for Hillary Clinton. Clinton gets a lead in a three-way poll in Ohio. Gravis (Clinton up 2) puts Clinton with a 1% lead.

FoX News -- CO, VA

VA:

Clinton 44, Trump 37

CO:

Clinton 44, Trump 34

KS, SurveyUSA. If you didn't like the Zogby poll, then all you had to do was to wait. 47-36 is a tepid lead for a Republican nominee in Kansas, don't you think? 

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7a998d53-af1c-4a34-996c-6de020dea785&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Trump 47
Clinton 36
Johnson 8
Undecided 9

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.









Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 15, 2016, 05:18:31 AM
https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/753801523096788993

NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist

Quote
CO: Clinton 43, Trump 35
FL: Clinton 44, Trump 37
NC: Clinton 44, Trump 38
VA: Clinton 44, Trump 35

Poll conducted from July 5-11.

Demagogue Don needs all four of these states, and he isn't getting them according to this poll. He needs to be getting well into the forties to have a chance to win these states, and he isn't doing so. Even Q shows him stuck around 40% support.

One unanswered question with these polls is how Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are doing. The 2012 Presidential race looks increasingly like a three-way race.

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000155-ebd0-dc24-ab55-fbf97c6b0001

Florida (one more):

In a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll of 800 likely voters

Clinton 45
Trump 40
Johnson 6
Other 2
Undecided 7

White
Clinton 35
Trump 50

Latino
Clinton 53
Trump 31

Black
Clinton 80
Trump 9

Missouri, PPP:

Trump 46 - Clinton 36 - Johnson 7 - Stein 1
Trump 49 -  Clinton 37 (Parties mentioned)
Obama approval 39%
Preference between Obama and Trump  -- 42% Obama, 50% Trump 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_Missouri_71516.pdf

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

(
)




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.










Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 15, 2016, 07:32:54 PM
For what it is worth, here is the collection of Morning Consult polls of all 50 states.

(
)

margin   saturation

30+          9
15-29       7
9-14         6
5-8           5
4              4 (usual margin of error)
1-3           2
tie            white  


Useful only in the absence of other evidence. But this said, no way is Hillary Clinton winning New Mexico by a mere 3% or Delaware by a mere 5% or Donald Trump winning Idaho by a mere 11% or Oklahoma by a mere 14%. No way, also, is Hillary Clinton winning Georgia while losing North Carolina.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: bigedlb on July 16, 2016, 12:02:59 PM
For what it is worth, here is the collection of Morning Consult polls of all 50 states.

(
)

margin   saturation

30+          9
15-29       7
9-14         6
5-8           5
4              4 (usual margin of error)
1-3           2
tie            white 


Useful only in the absence of other evidence. But this said, no way is Hillary Clinton winning New Mexico by a mere 3% or Delaware by a mere 5% or Donald Trump winning Idaho by a mere 11% or Oklahoma by a mere 14%. No way, also, is Hillary Clinton winning Georgia while losing North Dakota.

I think Maine and Georgia are off in opposite directions.  All others are plausible.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: Crumpets on July 16, 2016, 01:03:38 PM
pbrower2a, do you maybe want to add the Morning Consult 50-state poll results for the states that don't have any other polls just to fill out the map?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 16, 2016, 03:36:52 PM
pbrower2a, do you maybe want to add the Morning Consult 50-state poll results for the states that don't have any other polls just to fill out the map?

I'd love to, and it would be easy enough because it involves only nine states -- except that the numbers that I have been using on the Morning Consult polls measure a margin and not "leads with". I don't have a problem with the estimates that Morning Consult has for any state other than Delaware. DC? It's not going to matter whether Hillary Clinton wins it by 40% or 85%. 

I will likely go to margin-based polling after the Conventions. I am no longer convinced that a 49-37 lead means the same as a 41-37 lead as my map legend shows. 

Maybe I will use green for Trump leads and purple for Clinton leads. Dark shades of orange look horrible on these maps.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: freedomburns on July 17, 2016, 11:41:31 PM
I'm very curious to see what kind of bump Trump gets from the convention.  I'm also very curious to see what kind of bump Hillary gets next week.  I figured this would be the best place to find out.  I haven't been around for a while...can anyone post state polls conducted with good methodologies here?  Does it help dude keep the map more accurate?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 18, 2016, 07:36:24 AM
I'm very curious to see what kind of bump Trump gets from the convention.  I'm also very curious to see what kind of bump Hillary gets next week.  I figured this would be the best place to find out.  I haven't been around for a while...can anyone post state polls conducted with good methodologies here?  Does it help dude keep the map more accurate?

Here's my prediction: the Republican National Convention in Cleveland is going to be messy. Some cities would be even more of a lion's den for the ideology of Donald Trump, but count on every seasoned and amateur left-leaning protester within 300 miles (which includes the whole of Ohio,  most of Indiana, southern Michigan, western Pennsylvania, western New York, and Greater Chicago showing up. If the high-priced hotels will have the political activists of the GOP, the cheap motels along the Ohio Turnpike and other superhighways will have plenty of protesters.

The Convention itself might even be dull -- but just outside... I have said all that I can say responsibly. How the polls react will depend upon who provokes whom.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 24, 2016, 08:01:35 AM
Alabama, which will likely be one of Trump's best states:

Donald Trump 57%
Hillary Clinton 33%

http://wkrg.com/2016/07/21/trump-wins-alabama-but-some-supporters-may-not-like-him/

Georgia:

Warnings:

1. inconsistent with tracking polls that show Donald Trump tied with or leading Hillary Clinton immediately after the Reactionary National Convention.

2. One-point lead for either, so far from decisive. Both Trump and Clinton will get at least 46% of the vote in Georgia in a binary election.

3. Inconsistent with polls that generally show Hillary Clinton behind Donald Trump in Georgia.

4. Does not include Johnson.

5. Unfamiliar pollster.

Addendum: this is a partisan pollster.


http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/07/25/georgia-democrats-polling-shows-state-is-in-play-in-november/

Clinton 41
Trump 40
Undecided 16

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump[/b]

(
)




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.









Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 25, 2016, 07:07:12 PM
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/07/trump-gets-modest-boost-in-ohio-after-convention.html

Ohio, PPP:

Trump: 42
Clinton: 39
Johnson: 6
Stein: 2


Trump: 45
Clinton: 45

Tie in a binary race, not changing the binary map in the least.  

This poll looks legitimate, and it suggests that Georgia is a swing state:

Georgia, WSB-TV, ABC-2 Atlanta, Landmarke Communications:

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/trump-hillary-poll/411369450

Trump - 46
Clinton - 44
Johnson - 5
Stein - 3

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump[/b]

(
)




30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.








[/quote]


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 26, 2016, 09:36:13 PM
I will start over with a different set of criteria for leads.  A hint: I will distinguish leads with 45% or more against  leads with less than 45%.  As the election approaches, a lead of 47-43, let alone 47-35, means much more than does a lead of 44-40. Polls will be extremely volatile during the Conventions. I am unsure of whether I will change the map for the three-way race.

I will likely lock this thread after Convention-time polls quit coming in.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 26, 2016, 09:42:01 PM
Suffolk University
Pennsylvania Likely Voters
July 2016

50 Clinton 41 Trump


Outlier or the new normal? Good question. If the Republicans got a slight bounce from holding their convention in Ohio in an Ohio poll, then the Democrats might have gotten one in Pennsylvania.

I am too cautious to draw any conclusion of whether the Democrats have solved more political problems with their Convention than the Republicans did with theirs. Both solidified their bases.

Sooner Poll, Oklahoma 

53% Trump (R)
29% Clinton (D)
7% Johnson (L)

http://newsok.com/article/5511779

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump[/b]

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30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Leads with less than 40% are considered TIES.

...By the way -- I suggest that we pay more attention to my polling thread on the three-way race for Clinton/Johnson/Trump. The unusually-strong Libertarian ticket may change the character of this Presidential race from the binary races to we have been accustomed the last four times.










Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 30, 2016, 01:03:04 PM
First the bad news: I will be locking this thread early next week.

The Party conventions have well established what the themes of the 2016 Presidential election will be. It will be extremely difficult for either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton to offer something new. Both conventions have offered much grist for campaign ads. VP selections have been made, so nobody needs to ask whether Donald Trump would do better by selecting Senator Susan Collins or whether Hillary Clinton would have done better by selecting Senator  Bernie Sanders.

What I think of the respective conventions matters not here. Yes, I am a partisan hack; I expect to do active campaigning for Democrats this fall.  Such bias will show in my commentary. Yes, I believe that the Democrats solved far more problems in their convention  than the Republicans solved in theirs -- but I will let the polls do the talking. I prefer that reality cloud my judgment than that my opinions cloud reality.

In binary races, the leading nominee should be getting over 45% in a binary matchup in a poll that really matters in any state. The margin matters, of course, but a 49-47 lead may mean more than a 44-38 lead even if the 44-38 lead is outside the usual 4% margin of error. Of course I shall continue to treat any lead with less than 40% of the vote as a tie. If anything I may begin considering any lead with less than 43% as a tie unless the leader is up by 5% or more.

The basic trick will be to use orange for a Democratic lead with less than 47% in orange instead of red and green for a Republican lead with less than 47% in a binary matchup.

Here's one way to get blank maps: take old ones, like these introducing  Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina to the maps of binary matchups against Hillary Clinton. I will reject data from discredited pollsters, from special interest groups, and the insider polls of candidates and parties.    
 
Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson

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Hillary Clinton vs. Carly Fiorina

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So let us suppose that early next week I get these polling results. These are all fictional, so I am not predicting their appearance or their results. Polls taken this weekend include:

Quinnipiac:

Florida -- Clinton 44 Trump 48; Clinton 43, Trump 41, Johnson 12
Ohio  -- Clinton 43, Trump 46; Clinton 40, Trump 38, Johnson 15
Pennsylvania -- Clinton 47, Trump 40; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson 5

UAW "Give Working America a Break Campaign"

Michigan  -- Clinton 54, Trump 41; Clinton 51, Trump 32, Johnson 14

NAACP, Martin Luther King Institute:

Georgia -- Clinton 48  Trump 41; Clinton 46, Trump 36, Johnson 9

Loof-Lirpa Polling:

Colorado -- Clinton 45, Trump 45

Energy Citizens (front of the American Petroleum Institute)

Texas -- Trump 57 Clinton 41; Trump 51, Clinton 40, Trump 8

Research 2000:

Minnesota -- Clinton 55. Trump 43; Clinton 53. Trump 39, Johnson 7

Marquette University  Law School

Wisconsin Clinton 55. Trump 42; Clinton 54, Trump 36, Johnson 11

PPP, North Carolina --

Clinton 47, Trump 45; Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 9

Marist

Connecticut -- Clinton 56 Trump 41; Clinton 50, Trump 37, Johnson 5
New York -- Clinton 62 Trump 35;  Clinton 59. Trump 33, Johnson 7
Virginia -- Clinton 44, Trump 39 ; Clinton 44, Trump 35, Johnson 18

Selzer

Iowa -- Clinton 49, Trump 45,; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson  11

Nebraska (binary only) -- at-large Trump 54-44
NE-01 Johnson lead
NE-02 tie at 45
NE-03 Trump 62 Clinton 30

WMUR-TV

New Hampshire -- Clinton 47 Trump 45

Wyatt Earp High School, Tombstone, Arizona:

Arizona -- Trump 46, Clinton 42

National Right-to-Life Committee:


Massachusetts:

Clinton 51, Trump 46.

It's obvious that a high school lacks the professional competence necessary for conducting a poll. Research 2000 is a fraud. We can rule out polls involving the UAW, the NAACP, the front of the American Petroleum Institute (Big Oil), and the National Right-to-Life Committee for being associated with special interest groups or advocacy organizations. "Loof-Lirpa Polling" appears only on April Fool's Day. The University of Elkhart does not exist.    The others are good.

So what are we left with?


Quinnipiac:

Florida -- Clinton 44 Trump 48; Clinton 43, Trump 41, Johnson 12
Ohio  -- Clinton 43, Trump 46; Clinton 40, Trump 38, Johnson 15
Pennsylvania -- Clinton 47, Trump 40; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson 5

UAW "Give Working America a Break Campaign"

Michigan  -- Clinton 54, Trump 41; Clinton 51, Trump 32, Johnson 14

NAACP, Martin Luther King Institute:

Georgia -- Clinton 48  Trump 41; Clinton 46, Trump 36, Johnson 9

Loof-Lirpa Polling:

Colorado -- Clinton 45, Trump 45

Energy Citizens (front of the American Petroleum Institute)

Texas -- Trump 57 Clinton 41; Trump 51, Clinton 40, Trump 8

University of Elkhart:

Indiana: Trump 60, Clinton 37; Trump 53, Clinton 37, Johnson 5

Research 2000:

Minnesota -- Clinton 55. Trump 43; Clinton 53. Trump 39, Johnson 7


Marquette University  Law School

Wisconsin Clinton 55. Trump 42; Clinton 54, Trump 36, Johnson 11

PPP, North Carolina --

Clinton 45, Trump 47; Clinton 44, Trump 40, Johnson 9

Marist

Connecticut -- Clinton 54 Trump 41; Clinton 50, Trump 37, Johnson 5
New York -- Clinton 62 Trump 35;  Clinton 59. Trump 33, Johnson 7
Virginia -- Clinton 44, Trump 39 ; Clinton 44, Trump 35, Johnson 18

Selzer

Iowa -- Clinton 49, Trump 43,; Clinton 46, Trump 38, Johnson  11
Nebraska (binary only) -- at-large Trump 54-44
NE-01 Trump 52 Clinton 45
NE-02 tie at 45
NE-03 Trump 62 Clinton 30

WMUR-TV

New Hampshire -- Clinton 47 Trump 45

Wyatt Earp High School, Tombstone, Arizona:

Arizona -- Trump 46, Clinton 42

University of Elkhart:

Indiana: Trump 60, Clinton 37; Trump 53, Clinton 37, Johnson 5

National Right-to-Life Committee:

Massachusetts:

Clinton 51, Trump 46.


 

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Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
47-49%, margin 5% or greater saturation 40%
47-49%, margin 4% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-46%, margin 5% or greater, saturation 40%
43-46%, margin 4% or less, saturation 20%  

I might give Gary Johnson leads a yellow color.


I have no idea of what I will do with the three-way polls. Simply start over?


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: LLR on July 30, 2016, 02:57:58 PM
Why are you looking the thread - does that mean you're only doing three way maps? I'm very confused.


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 30, 2016, 04:35:55 PM
Why are you looking the thread - does that mean you're only doing three way maps? I'm very confused.

I want to show the difference between someone leading while being close to 50% and leading while not being so close to 50%.

Earlier polls (the ones in this thread) will soon be only of archival interest. Later polls will show post-Convention reality.  

I am not sure that I need to do something different with the three-way polls.  I may wish to show them with the binary matchups. But even there I will need to show winning scenarios when  the leader and one half the Johnson polling combine to go over 5-%. If on election night the totals show Trump 46.22% and Johnson at 7.58%, then Trump wins the state in question. I may need to change the legend for three-way polls to reflect the new conditions of victory and progress toward or regress from them.  

My read on the Conventions may be flawed, but I am satisfied that both Trump and Clinton went into their respective Conventions with big problems to solve. Both Trump and Clinton had to solve most of them to get elected.  Both Parties pinned themselves down on issues, leaving room for attacks on their positions.

We have yet to see how such manifests itself in the polls. I intend to let the polls speak for themselves on my map. It is still too early to answer the question of who is in better shape in which to win the Presidency.

Barring a discrediting scandal, an economic meltdown for which Republicans can successfully  hold Democrats responsible, or some military or diplomatic disaster, what we see in the next two weeks is likely to stick. Neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton is in a position to back away from what they said or their surrogates said at their respective conventions. The conventions set up the material for negative ads.    


Title: Re: Cleaned-up 2016 Presidential election map.
Post by: pbrower2a on July 31, 2016, 01:30:42 PM
Locked now. Polls from last week go into limbo, and except for two polls from Alabama and Oklahoma (the two states get polled rarely and the results are unlikely to move; their results are unlikely to cause any controversy) I start with a blanks state for binary polls.  

The polls to go into the new thread (Post-Convention Polls) are from this weekend or later.  Keep this thread as an archive.