Talk Elections

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http://www.cbsnews.com/news/battleground-tracker-sanders-surges-in-ia-nh-clinton-up-in-sc

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http://www.cbsnews.com/news/battleground-tracker-trump-leads-gop-field-in-ia-nh-sc

YouGov isn't the best pollster, but these results are shocking for Hilldog.

And this comes with Bernie having enough time to shore up his Blaxican support in SC ...

It would be great if this were true, but...

Nevada is like the Ron Paul of early primary states.

There aren't many Hispanics in South Carolina. And, an elderly white man isn't really going to spark much excitement among black voters to cause a sharp reversal. Sanders support is overwhelmingly white right now and will stay that way.

I'm afraid to see what sort of names the "Blaxicans" will be called if they don't go for Sanders. I know stupid will be one of them for sure.

Well this results are shocking. They also directly contradict PPP's SC poll, which had Sanders at only 9. We'll have to see.

Seems that Sanders is either making up ground very quickly or this poll is biased towards him.

Horrible #s for Bush across the board. 

He is like a 3rd tier candidate or something now.

What a summer. From Bush and Clinton to Trump and Sanders.

God bless America.

Jeb! Bush's campaign is probably on the verge of panic. Early or not, 3% in Iowa and 6% in New Hampshire four months out is not a position any candidate wants to be in. He has a lot of ground to make up and not that much time to do it in.

Iowa Pubs and I just are not in sync at all. Rubio + Jeb + Kasich + Fiorina + Christie = 16%.  I guess not too many Pubs there are advance degreed gay seculars - or something. :P

When Jeb! tries to go "high energy" in the next debate, do you think it will be in the context of lashing out at Trump in kind of a frustrated way, or will be more about him being relaxed and jovial and articulate and passionate about his views on where then nation needs to go and how? Because if it is the former, it's not going to be pretty. Jeb! just doesn't do well in mosh pit fights, and will seem weak and whiney. He really needs to sell himself, and ignore Trump. But he can't seem to sell himself out of a paper bag. That is what Carly did in the last debate. She sold herself, and folks said hey, this is one smart and informed and articulate lady, who can frame issues and arguments that work like a Swiss watch.

Assuming this is still basically an internet-exclusive poll (irrespective of the refinements of the methodology), it likely favors Sanders to some degree. However, I tend to also believe that the PPP poll is favoring Clinton to a similar degree. Presidential primaries are largely nationalized affairs at this point and it makes absolutely no sense for Sanders to be receiving anywhere from 30-40% of the white vote nationally and in most states, but only 10-20% in SC (hopefully everyone will save the "but muh southern whites don't like Bernie" nonsense).

Junk poll.

I cringe when Austrumpians start talking about minorities.

Oh my god this is fantastic news! :D

Pretty unbelievable that we have a creepy, insane xenophobe who can't stop repeating his made-up "Blaxican" word moderating this forum. Embarassing.

As regards to the SC poll that might be true. However when you look at the New Hampshire poll, that also has Sanders much higher than in other polls on RCP. The three most recent there are low 40s. The trend is for Sanders to be improving but the size of this jump seems unlikely. It is quite possible he could reach there in another month though. The polling in Iowa has been a bit more inconsistent in other polls but this poll for Iowa is also better for Sanders than any poll on RCP.

All three together indicate that there is probably a bit of a bias towards Sanders in these polls. However they might be replicated soon if Sanders continues to improve his position in the polls as he has been lately.

Why is the Austroracist still moderating this forum?!

With Biden a no go; Clinton should reestablish her lead in Iowa.

Why does that make no sense?  White Democrats in different parts of the country are pretty different.

I'm very surprised by just how strong Trump is in New Hampshire.

For the past few cycles, establishment Republicans have relied on the state to counter Iowa's insurgent winner.  That plan has gone up in smoke, and unless Walker can stage a miraculous comeback Iowa's lost too (either to Cruz, Trump, or Carson).

South Carolina is just as bad, which makes ignored and neglected Nevada the last hope for the establishment in the early states.

YouGov is fantastic, but those SC-D numbers make me concerned. No way is Sanders at 23% there. I don't care if he just did some HBCU presentation or whatever. Maybe soon but certainly not yet.

Also, I kind of get why Trump is praising Cruz now. Those Cruz voters are probably 2nd choice Carson. He might win Iowa in a plurality thanks to those two splitting and then win the next three in blowouts. Another absolutely genius move that shows why he deserves the Presidency.

Joe Biden all but said he's not running. Those Sanders votes in Iowa and SC are gonna drop now and Clinton will win especially SC.

Did I miss something?

Wow, these are really good polls for Sanders. The caveat is it's a large MOE and an Internet poll. But regardless, NH is looking pretty solid for him.

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Horrible news for Clinton, we should see signs of desperation very soon.

Speaking of desperate, Jeb is tied for 8th place in Iowa at 3%. #secondtier

You keep saying this but nobody knows what you're talking about.

This is not an uncommon OC problem.  :P

Yeah, isn't he the same guy who was once known as "Quincy" on here? He was always a few cards short of a full deck.

Yes.

I can't believe in September 2015 it's looking like Trump vs Sanders.

If Sanders wins IA, NH and SC, it's over. How does Hillary recover from that?

Sanders won't win SC.

Looking at the crosstabs, the same patterns show up everywhere: Carson does better with women and Evangelicals, while Trump does better with men and non-Evangelicals.  Carson also does better with olds and conservatives, while the pattern on those dimensions is less straightforward for Trump.

On the Democratic side, Clinton is always doing better with women and olds, while Sanders is doing better among men and youngs.  Heck, Clinton is only at 5% (and 3rd place) among New Hampshire Dems under the age of 30:

Sanders 67%
Biden 6%
Clinton 5%

And the gender gap is big too.  Sanders leads by 38 points among men in NH, but only 11 points among women.

The fact that Sanders leads among Women period in NH should be extremely worrying for Hillary Clinton, as it means the party is very open to prolonging the breaking if a glass ceiling to get an honest candidate.

LOL at Hillary's 5% among people under 30 in NH