Talk Elections

http://www.kentucky.com/2015/09/30/4064104_bluegerass-poll-jack-conway-maintains.html

Can the pundits put a stop to this "Lean R" garbage now?

I'm beginning to come around to Conway being ahead - reading more about this race has made me realize nominating a woman beater or someone who is just chronically unlikable would've actually been a better choice for the GOP than nominating Matt Bevin. He's really running a disastrous campaign - flip flopping, whining to the DNC, putting out a tiny ad buy for no reason.

Someone needs to dump $20M yesterday. After all the heat and noise, both are at even favs & honesty, no topline change since July. As the Herald-Leader's Sam Youngman (http://www.kentucky.com/2015/09/29/4062816_sam-youngman-is-bevin-snatching.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&rh=1) and Courier Journal's Joe Gerth (http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/gerth/2015/09/26/gerth-despite-bevin-missteps-conway-doesnt-shine/72876378/) noted recently, it's really a "who's running the less awfully crappy campaign" contest.

^ Rogue, I love how you throw around random author's like they're household names.

They're calling La too LR since its an offyear election. Same with MO gov and OH sen. Dems are tied or leading. Sabato needs to reevaluate  his methology, because Dems are winning.

15% undecided seems a little high at this point. In any case, after 2014, SUSA is junk until proven otherwise in KY. But even if this poll is accurate, the race remains a Toss-Up. It is a bad sign for Conway that he hasn't even crossed 45% yet.

I still have the feeling Bevin will win

Conway 42
Bevin 37
Curtis 7

There is a reason the RGA pulled ads here.

Basically one month until the election and Sabato is somehow still sure the race leans R. WTF

Basically, I've ignored his ratings. As long as the state is in play, I've considered it a tossup. Same with OH senate, La gov and MO gov race.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=216819.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=192495.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=124809.0

There's still a month left. Plenty of time for the race to shift or for the undecideds to show their true colors (atlas blue?).

We don't even know where the race stands because there has been just one poll conducted by a non-joke pollster (PPP showed Bevin up 2). Isn't it funny how the red avatars insist that the MI polls showing the GOP ahead are trash but consider SUSA to be a reliable pollster?

I still am surprised that, after the disasterous race he ran against Rand Paul, Kentucky Democrats thought, yea, this is our guy in Jack Conway. He may beat Bevin, but he's an almost certain loss for re-election.

Will the GOP even still exist in 2019?

Quit trolling. Hillary's not winning in your state.

2019 is not a presidential year.

Bevin is a poor candidate and Kentucky has only elected one Republican governor in 40 years. At the state level, Democrats are still able to win the constitutional offices.

The RGA pulled ads for Bevin, which tells you just about all you need to know about the race.

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2015/10/01/kim-davis-should-do-her-job-most-poll-say/73000632/


I think this bodes well for his tenure as Attorney General.

I still think Bevin will win. Conway is only at 42%. He needs to be well above that to secure a win in Kentucky. Republicans break late and heavily for their candidate. If we learned anything from 2014, I think that is it. Plus its SUSA, which has a terrible track record in Kentucky.

I doubt Bevin will win, most KY voters dony agree about the Davis decision not to obey SSM ruling.

Voters are om the Dems, not GOP side, here.

The downballot results: (http://www.kentucky.com/2015/10/02/4067858_bluegrass-poll-republican-gains.html?rh=1)

SOS:
Grimes (D) - 46%
Knipper (R) - 38%

AG
Beshear (D) - 38%
Westerfield (R) - 38%

Auditor
Edelen (D)- 35%
Harmon (R)- 33%

Treasurer
Ball (R) - 35%
Nelson (D) - 33%

Ag. Commissioner
Quarles (R) - 34%
Spann (D) - 31%

Like Westerfield or Harmon have any chance at all. The others actually sound pretty close to what I'd expect.

Of course, Grimes is way ahead, which isn't surprising at all.

Why is Grimes being way ahead expected? McConnell  clobbered her by the 2nd widest margin of his career. Only in 2002 when Democrats didn't seriously contest the race did McConnell win by more than he did in 2014.

Because her opponent is absolutely horrible.

Ouch, terrible numbers for the Dems. And lol@Grimes leading by 8.

Grimes isn't going to lose. Period.

SUSA polls in KY aren't the best, but the problem is that we really don't have anything else to work with at this point. Hard to call this race anything but a toss-up, due to uncertainty.

Conway is likely leading. Bevin is a retread from the 2014 KY gov race.

Is an R ever seriously leading with you. EVER?

PLEASE stop hacking. Take the weekend off. Thank you.

Apparently never. His final 2014 prediction had Pryor winning.

All the polls had Dems overstating the polls in 2014, but AR had Beebe winning winning and I was hoping Pryor would upset.

If you look at user predictions, alot of users have Edwards winning.

Sabato also has OH Senate as LR and Strickland has been leading in polls. Its no worse than a tossup.

Its a user prediction stop taking it seriously, we want to max all our gains in both parties.

User predictions right before the election are supposed to be what you think will happen based on concrete reasoning, not what you want to happen

Edwards is leading and so is Strickland and he has both as Tilt R.