Talk Elections

"We are now able to project that Chris Christie will win the New Hampshire primary. A major win for the New Jersey Governor." -- Rachel Maddow


"Tonight, we made history. A lot of people, at the start of this adventure, said to me: "Where are you going? You will never win.". I talked with the New Hampshire people, I told them the truth, I told things like they are. The people of New Hampshire have understood me and they gave me an important victory tonight. This is only the beginning. We are going to win the nomination and we are going to win the presidency of the United States! If you want a strong leader in difficult times, I'm your choice..." -- Chris Christie

Wow, nice job on that.

This looks GREAT!

Christie-Rodgers 2012!

You could say, a most interesting timeline. Excited for the update :)

Wow, that's an odd but very powerful start. Who won in Iowa?

“The only sure thing in the republican field is uncertainty” -- Wolf Blitzer

In early 2011, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announced that he was not a candidate for the republican nomination. But during the summer, declared republican candidates were still trailing President Obama in the polls. There was not a true enthusiasm towards people running and several GOP leaders and donors asked Christie to reconsider his decision not to run and to enter the Republican primary.

On August 20, one week after Rick Perry's presidential announcement, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announced his candidacy for the GOP nomination in a rally in Newark, NJ. Christie joined a field already composed of 10 candidates: Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Representative Ron Paul, former Speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Representative Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson and Representative Thaddeus McCotter.


Christie said that he was respectful of the republican field, but that he was the only candidate able to beat the President. Christie gained a bounce after his announcement, but he knew that it was going to be an hard race and, after decided to run for President only 2 years after his first election to the governorship, he was obliged to win. That election was the last call for Mitt Romney and for all other presidential candidates and they had not intention to give up, at all costs.
Mitt Romney was the most disappointed candidate with Chris Christie. They were considered friends, and according to various reports, Christie's decision made Romney very angered, made he willing to do anything to win the nomination.

At the morning of the Iowa caucuses, the Republican field reduced to 7 candidates, instead of the initial 11. After a lack of consideration and support, U.S. Representative Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan dropped out in late September and endorsed Mitt Romney for the nomination.
The Chris Christie's candidacy made a victim in the GOP field. John Huntsman, the former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China, dropped out of the race in late November citing the lack of support, which occurred expecially in New Hampshire, where the New Jersey Governor cathced all the Huntsman's support. He didn't endorse a candidate, but said that both Romney and Christie would be great Presidents.
Herman Cain's candidacy was seriously jeopardized after allegations of sexual harassment by the media. Cain denied the allegations, but he suspended his presidential campaign in early December.
And finally, in late December, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson decided to drop out from the Republican race and to seek the Libertarian Presidential nomination. He encouraged republicans to support Ron Paul.

Basically all candidates in the field had their momentum. Romney was in the lead in the early polls. Bachmann had the momentum in August, after her win in the Ames Straw Poll. Then it was the Rick Perry's turn. After his announcement, Christie had the momentum. Then Herman Cain surged in the polls and after allegations to Cain, it was Newt Gingrich's turn. Then Ron Paul surged to the lead in various Iowa polls and finally, it was the turn of Rick Santorum, that recovered a lot in Iowa polls, after a permanent campaign in the state.
At the morning of the Iowa caucuses, the only sure thing was uncertainty. Uncertainty in Iowa, where Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum were in a close race according to the polls, with Chris Christie, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry not so far away.
Uncertainty in New Hampshire, where Mitt Romney still maintained a lead over Chris Christie and uncertainty in national polls, with all contenders in a close race. Let the games begin.

“Rick Santorum is the projected winner of the Iowa caucuses. Ron Paul will finish in second. Mitt Romney will finish in third.” -- Rachel Maddow


"We have a message. Iowa has a message. We are in this race to win it. This is a victory of all courageous conservatives standing up for our values, our hard-working families. The momentum just started, and nobody can stop it." -- Rick Santorum


Rick Santorum did that. After a tour of all 99 counties and a permanent, strong campaign in this state, the former Pennsylvania Senator won the Iowa caucuses. And now he's a clear contender for the nomination. Both Romney, Christie, Gingrich will have to face him as a serious candidate if they want to face President Obama in November.

Ron Paul, an early favorite to win Iowa, finished in second but was still able to outdistance Mitt Romney by more than 3 points. How polling numbers for Paul will turn out after this result is a myster, but there is a sure thing. If he wants to do well, he needs to do a respectable result in New Hampshire and try to win Nevada thanks to the establishment split.

A bad night for Mitt Romney. He finished in third place, 9 points behind Rick Santorum. That's a depressing news for the former Governor. A victory here would have push Romney to campaign in other states as the frontrunner. But not all is lost. Next state is New Hampshire and it's considered a must win for Romney, even if he can count on Nevada and Florida, according to the most recent polls. Chris Christie was already closing the gap on Mitt Romney, he'll have more momentum after Iowa. But Romney is still holding a small lead over Christie in post-Iowa polls of Granite State. We'll see if it will be enough.

An acceptable result for Newt Gingrich. Next objective of his campaign is exceed the 10% treshold in New Hampshire in order to get some delegates, but the real objective is South Carolina. A bordering, friendly state for Gingrich, where he's still keeping a good lead over Mitt Romney, weakened by Christie's candidacy. But South Carolina is still up for grabs and a Romney victory in New Hampshire might let him to close the gap on Gingrich. Looks like Newt will have to cheer on for Christie when the Granite State will vote.

Good night for Chris Christie, that exceeded his polling numbers in Iowa. He surpassed Rick Perry and was not so away from Gingrich and Romney. But the first objective of Christie campaign was and still is New Hampshire. Post Iowa polls are still showing a lead for Romney in New Hampshire. Christie will have to campaign hard in the Granite State in the next week. A victory here could give him a big boost and would let him to make a strong case with establishment, that is still favoring Romney.

Expected but not so good result for Rick Perry. The Texas Governor decided to skip New Hampshire in order to focus on South Carolina. His polling numbers in the Palmetto state are still declining and the bounce for Santorum after his win doesn't help Perry, but he intends to campaign hard in the next days in South Carolina, hoping for a good result that can let him to be a strong voice on Super Tuesday.

Michele Bachmann, the flavor of August, has fallen under 5% in the state that was supposed to be the main objective of his campaign. After this disappointing result, Bachmann suspended her campaign without making an endorsement.

Newtsmentum!

“He badly needed it, he gained it.” -- John King



Chris Christie gained a fundamental victory in the Granite State. New Hampshire was a must-win for Christie: without it, his candidacy would have fallen. The majority of establishment is still favoring Romney, but now he can make a strong case among with donors. This victory led Christie to a major bounce in national polls.

It's still not over for Mitt. He's in to win it, he want it. Now, the objectives are a strong second place in South Carolina, where Gingrich is opening a lead, and a victory in both Nevada and Florida. Polls from Florida are showing that Romney is still ahead, but this bounce for Christie and an eventual bounce for Gingrich after South Carolina might make things more difficult for Romney.

Ron Paul did slightly worse than the polls, but his position has not chanced. He need a strong result in Nevada and possibly to win a state (he is in a close race for the victory with Romney and Christie in Maine). Without a strong result, his campaign would be damaged, but he promised to compete in all 50 states.

The battle among the two conservatives was won by Rick Santorum, who edged Gingrich by a point. Gingrich's efforts are all on South Carolina, where he need to win and to gain a big number of delegates. As expected, a very low result for Rick Perry in New Hampshire. He promised to go in South Carolina for a great result, but a few days before the South Carolina primary, he dropped out of the race and endorsed Newt Gingrich.

Thanks to an aggresive campaign, good debate performances and Perry's endorsements, Gingrich opened a lead in South Carolina, where before of the New Hampshire primary he was battling with Mitt Romney for the lead.

---

I have decided to continue this TL. The other TL "The Diary" (a very interesting project) will be updated after "A Different 2012".

"Don't count me out. Don't count us out. We are in to win it and we will win it!” -- Newt Gingrich



An important victory for Newt Gingrich in the Palmetto State. His margin of victory was more wide than expected: almost 20 points, while the final polls were giving to Gingrich a margin of 6-8 points over Romney. Another important expect is the fact that Gingrich was able to swept all congressional districts, including the most moderate 1st congressional district (here he topped Romney by 4 points) and so swept all 25 delegates at stake in the primary.

Very bad result for Mitt Romney, who hoped to defend a strong 2nd place finish in South Carolina but did a lot worse than the polls. Some of his support gone to Chris Christie, polled at 6% and finished ahead of Ron Paul with more than 10%. This is not a good sign for Romney: now, he has to win Nevada, possibly by a strong margin, and Florida, where Gingrich and Christie are giving him a very competitive race. Expected result in South Carolina for Rick Santorum, finished third ahead of Christie and Paul. The latter one was surpassed by Chris Christie by almost 2000 votes.


Calendar of contests
Jan. 31: Florida
Feb. 4: Nevada
Feb. 7: Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri
Feb. 11: Maine
Feb. 28: Arizona, Michigan
Feb. 29: Wyoming
Mar. 3: Washington
Mar. 6: Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia
Mar. 10: Kansas, Guam, N. Mariana Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands
Mar. 13: Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi, American Samoa
Mar. 18: Puerto Rico
Mar. 20: Illinois
Mar. 24: Louisiana
Apr. 3: DC, Maryland, Wisconsin
Apr. 24: Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
May 8: Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia
May 15: Oregon
May 22: Arkansas, Kentucky
May 29: Texas
Jun. 5: California, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
Jun. 10: Nebraska
Jun. 16: Montana
Jun. 26: Utah

“Third, second, second, second. That's Mitt Romney's record after the first four contests. At this point, I think the real frontrunner is Chris Christie.” -- Chris Matthews


A great and fundamental victory for Chris Christie in the state of Florida. After a too close to call race that lasted almost all the night, the New Jersey governor gained a narrow victory but all 50 delegates at stake. This victory makes Chris Christie the real frontunner of the primary, instead of Mitt Romney, that gained another second place (it's the third out of four contests). Now, Mitt Romney needs a strong victory in friendly Nevada and in other states like Maine, Minnesota and Colorado, where he won in 2008.

Newt Gingrich came really close, but wasn't able to win. Now, his campaign is moving to Nevada, Missouri and to Super Tuesday, when 10 states including his home state of Georgia will vote. Rick Santorum didn't compete at all in Florida, actively focusing on the trio of Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, that will vote 3 days after Nevada. Ron Paul will go in Nevada, where the polls are finding his campaign very competitive for second place.

The first victory for Mitt Romney arrived a few days his defeat in Florida, as he won the Nevada caucuses by a relatively confortable margin. All candidates except Santorum campaigned in this state and despite the polls showing a close race for second, Christie gained the silver medal with a margin of 5 and 6 points respectively over Gingrich and Paul.

Great update! Go Christie!

Mitt will be crushed by Donut Man.

“Rick Santorum wins 3 out of 3 tonight. It's not easy to remember a so stunning, so surprising campaign” -- Jack Tapper



A stunning result. Rick Santorum won 3 out of 3 contests. The most surprising result is Colorado, where the polls and the 2008 results were giving an advantage to Mitt Romney. In Minnesota, Santorum did better than the polls. Another surprise is the last minute surge of Chris Christie that damaged Mitt Romney: the New Jersey governor finished second and was beaten by just 4 points, Romney gained the fourth place with less than 13%, while polls were giving him at least 20%. Rick Santorum also won the “conservative battle” with Newt Gingrich in the state of Missouri. Santorum did much better than expected even in Missouri.


A few days later, results came out of Maine and that was another defeat for Romney. Chris Christie barely won the caucuses over the former Massachusetts governor, while Paul gained 22% and a third place in a state where he was well positioned for the win.


Mitt Romney hopes for a rebirth in the next few contests: he's highly favored in Arizona and Idaho and it's in a close race with Rick Santorum in Michigan, his “second home” and in a close race with Christie, Santorum and Paul in the state of Washington. If he wants to well position himself for Super Tuesday and the other races, he needs to do well in those four states.

“Nobody eight months ago would have predicted a so close race, without a clear favorite on the eve of Super Tuesday” -- Rachel Maddow


As expected, Mitt Romney won Arizona, but the real story of the night was his 4-point loss in the state of Michigan to Rick Santorum, that was able to exploit the division of the most moderate electorate between Romney and Christie.

A few days later, results came out from Washington state and Wyoming. As expected, Romney won Wyoming, but by a 0.1% over Santorum. In Washington, Christie prevaled after a 4-way close race.


Next step is Super Tuesday. Romney hopes to gain victories in Alaska, Idaho, Massachusetts, Ohio and Virginia and to prevail over Christie in the other states that will be won by Santorum and Gingrich. Christie's targets are Alaska, Ohio, Virginia and Vermont. Also he hopes to gain delegates in Massachusetts and in other states. Santorum is campaigning in the South, where he hopes to do well, as does Gingrich: he's a strong favorite in Georgia, but his campaign, after a series of defeats, needs new lifeblood from other southern states like Tennessee, Oklahoma and from Alaska, since he gained the endorsement of Sarah Palin. Paul is competing in North Dakota, Vermont and Virginia, where he can do well since both Gingrich and Santorum will not appear on the ballot.

Make Romney pay ittl for losing iotl

On a serious note great job so far!

“The real winner of Super Tuesday is President Obama. The republican field is more divided than ever and nobody wants to give up.” -- Wolf Blitzer


A good night for Chris Christie, who, as expected, won in Vermont and Virginia and gained two battlegrounds: Alaska and expecially Ohio, where he prevailed after a very close 3-way race with Santorum and Romney. Next step are four southern states, where he'll have to defend well and gain some delegates, taking advantage from the Santorum-Gingrich split. Then campaign will go back in friendly territory: Illinois, DC, Maryland and Wisconsin, where he wants to give the final hit to the Romney campaign, and then five northeast states, where he's strongly favored.

A good night for Santorum too. The former Pennsylvania senator easily won in North Dakota and Tennessee, prevaled by a relatively confortable margin in Oklahoma, where the polls were predicting a close race with Gingrich, came really close in Alaska and prevailed over Gingrich, the other big conservative in the race, in all other states. He wants to reenforce his status with solid victories in southern states like Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, then he'll have to wait until May, when the calendar goes back in friendly territory.

Not a good night for Mitt Romney. As expected, he won in his home state of Massachusetts and in Idaho, but lost in competitive states like Ohio, Alaska and was behind Christie in all other states. He declared that he has not intention to give up so early, justifying it with the delegate count that shows him in second place, just a few delegates behind Christie. The decisive states for Mitt will be Illinois and the trio of DC, Maryland and Wisconsin. He's planning a strong offensive in those states, trying to stop Christie's momentum. If he'll be able to do that, his campaign will be back on the right track. If not, the negative moment will continue, forcing him to drop out of the race or remaining as a simple viewer while Christie and Santorum battles for the nominaton.

As expected, Gingrich won his home state of Georgia, but lost in Oklahoma and was far from being competitive in the other states. Out of the 4 big candidates, he's the one who has less delegates and Santorum seems to be the conservative favorite. Gingrich, during his speech, declared that results might have been more positive for him, but he's not giving up: the decisive states will be solidly conservative states like Kansas, Alabama and Mississippi, where he needs to win in order to put his campaign back on the right track.

Another bad night for Ron Paul: he gained the silver medal in North Dakota and finished fourth in both Alaska and Vermont, where he hoped to being competitive. Paul is not leaving the race, he promised to go in all fifty states.

“With this move, Newt Gingrich is clearing the field. To prevent Santorum from capitalizing and taking advantage from this, another similar move is needed on the establishment side.” -- Chris Matthews



The decisive days for the future of Newt Gingrich's campaign started with the Kansas caucuses, and that wasn't a great result for him. As expected, Santorum easily won the caucuses, as he was the only candidate to actively campaign in the state, while Gingrich entirely focused on Alabama and Mississippi, called to vote just three days after Kansas.


Newt Gingrich is out. After losing to Rick Santorum in both Alabama and Mississippi, the former Speaker of the House suspended his campaign and endorsed the former Pennsylvania senator, calling on conservatives to gain back the GOP and to defeat Chris Christie and Mitt Romney. Gingrich said that the Republicans and America need a strong conservative that brings home results and that Santorum was the only candidate in the field that can guarantee this and beat President Obama. Santorum thanked Gingrich for the support and jumped ahead in the delegate count. “Finally, conservatives all across this nation can unite behind me, the only candidate that is conservative principled and can beat the incumbent President without betraying his values” said Santorum.

Caucuses and primaries were also held in territories. Mitt Romney won with more than 50% in Puerto Rico and gained all 20 delegates at stake and divided the other territories with Christie, who gained 6 delegates from U.S. Virgin Islands. The delegates of the other territories remain uncommitted. 20 more delegates for Romney, but the next contests are the crucial ones for the former Massachusetts governor: Illinois, DC, Maryland and Wisconsin. He must beat Christie and Santorum and win a number of states.

Cmon Christie win Wisconsin.

“Finally, we can say that. We have a frontrunner. And he is Chris Christie.” -- Rachel Maddow



He's out. Mitt Romney, the big favorite at the start of the primary dropped out of the race and endorsed Chris Christie. The New Jersey governor's decision to enter the race made Romney very angered, but right now he's supporting him. Romney said that the most important thing right now is that the Republicans take back the White House and that Christie was the only candidate able to do that, not Santorum. Romney thanked all of his volunteers, apologized for a campaign that “was not well run, as America didn't understood our message” and called on all of his supporters to support “his friend and great public servant” Chris Christie.


The next five contests are held in the Northeast. According to the most recent polls, Chris Christie is leading by a lot in Connecticut, Delaware, New York and Rhode Island, while Rick Santorum is ahead in his home state of Pennsylvania. Then the primary calendar will be most suitable for Santorum, as Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon, Arkansas, Kentucky and Texas will vote. In the final phase, the calendar will be more good for Christie, as among the states called to vote there will be California and New Jersey.

YEAH CHRISTIE!!!!

“We are not giving up. We can gain a great number of delegates in the next contests and we'll do that” -- Rick Santorum



A real stronghold. Chris Christie did really well in the Northeast: over 60% in all states except Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania and expecially a net gain of 130 delegates over Santorum. The next contests, in theory, are favorable to Santorum, but Christie's momentum is making him competitive in states where Santorum was an early favorite. Santorum remains a strong favorite in West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky. He's leading in both Indiana and Texas, where Christie is closing the gap but Santorum holds a confortable lead, while Christie is ahead in the state of Oregon. North Carolina is a pure toss-up, with the two major candidates in a dead heat. Right now, winning is not enough for Santorum. He needs not just to win, but to do very well in Texas, the state where the biggest number of delegates is at stake. Other big prize states are North Carolina and Kentucky.

“The finish line is getting closer, closer and closer. One last effort and we'll gain the nomination!” -- Chris Christie




Mixed results for Rick Santorum. He lost in battleground North Carolina, but won in the majority of states at stake during this period. The last win was Texas, but Santorum won it by a closest margin than expected and consequently, the former Pennsylvania Senator reduced the margin in the delegate count from 253 behind to 202 behind Christie, and it's not a great improvement, considered that the next and final states of the campaign are more favorable to Christie.

Christie will not be able to gain the nomination on June 5, when California, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota will vote: even if he sweeps all 264 delegates at stake, he'll go to 1123 delegates, just 21 short of 1144, the magic number. But he'll not sweep all delegates, since both New Mexico and South Dakota have a proportional allocation of delegates.

The New Jersey Governor is a strong favorite in Utah, where all 40 delegates are bound to the statewide winner, so if Santorum doesn't make a great showing in the June 5 states and keeps Christie under 1104 delegates, he'll be done.

Take it to the finish line Grandpa Ron!

"We can now tell you that Chris Christie, the governor of New Jersey, has won the republican nomination. He started as an underdog in August 2011, but now, 5 June 2012, he's the republican presumptive nominee for President." -- Wolf Blitzer


After his four victories, Chris Christie moved to 1104, just 40 short of the magic number. Considered that Christie, thanks to Romney's endorsement, is a strong favorite in Utah, where 40 delegates will go to the statewide winner, and that he could easily gain delegates in the other two states called to vote (Montana and Nebraska), there were no hopes for Rick Santorum, who decided to drop out of the race. He endorsed Chris Christie, called for unity and to focus on defeating President Obama in November.


According to various reports, Christie is considering for VP various governors, senators, a representative and former primary rivals. As of his fellow governors, Christie is considering Susana Martinez of New Mexico,  Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Bob McDonnell of Virginia, Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Nikki Haley of South Carolina and former governors Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Jeb Bush of Florida. As of senators, he's considering Marco Rubio from Florida, Rob Portman from Ohio, Kelly Ayotte from New Hampshire. He's also considering Representative Paul Ryan from Wisconsin and two former presidential candidates: Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich.


The first RCP electoral map after Christie victory in the GOP primary is released and it shows the incumbent President leading the electoral college 233-191, while 8 states for a total of 114 electoral votes are classified as toss-up states.

"I humbly accept your nomination for the presidency of the United States" -- Barack Obama


Chris Christie picked Florida Senator Marco Rubio for Vice President. Recent polls and the affermath of the GOP primary are showing that Chris Christie needs to unite the base in order to being competitive with Obama. Also, he needs a strong bounce in at least one swing state. That's why he picked Rubio. He's popular with the tea party base, he's a popular senator in crucial battleground Florida and his Cuban American roots could help him with Hispanic voters and minorities in general. Rubio also embodies the message of the American dream, a thing that will surely help the republican ticket.

A few days after his VP announcement, the Republican National convention started in Cleveland, Ohio. Rubio won the vice presidential nomination by acclamation, Christie won the presidential nomination at the first round of voting, with a few votes going to Ron Paul. The most important speakers were Senate and gubernatorial candidates, including Ted Cruz of Texas, Senators Kelly Ayotte from New Hampshire, Rob Portman from Ohio, Governors John Kasich of Ohio, Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Brian Sandoval of Nevada, Susana Martinez of New Mexico, former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. Speeches were also made by former presidential candidates like, Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, also by Condi Rice. The keynote speaker was made by South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

The republican ticket received a bounce from the convention. In the RCP national average, Christie went ahead with a two-point margin over President Obama (48.3% vs. 46.3%). Also the republican candidate remained was ahead in the electoral map 276-262. The New Jersey Governor remained ahead in Florida, North Carolina, gained the first place in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and Iowa, while remained behind but gained ground in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The Democratic National Convention started on September 4. Both President Obama and Vice President Biden were re-nominated without problems. Among the speakers there were various senate and gubernatorial candidates in 2012, Governors Martin O'Malley of Maryland, John Hickenlooper of Colorado, the leading democratic senators in Washington, former President Bill Clinton, the two first ladies (Michelle and Jill) and a lot of rising stars, including Newark, NJ Mayor Cory Booker, Kamala Harris from California and Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren.

As Christie did after the RNC, Obama too gained a bounce after his party's convention. He regained the lead in national polls (47.9% vs. 46.5% in the RCP average) and in the electoral count (303-235). The situation in the RCP electoral map was the same of the days before the Republican National Convention: Christie remained ahead in Florida and North Carolina (in this state by a very slim margin), but the President gained back the lead in Ohio (by a very slime margin here too), Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado.

What could have been

"What was he doing? Where was Obama tonight? Christie was winning!" -- Chris Matthews


Chris Christie strongly won the first debate focused on economy. A CNN poll found that 63% thought that Christie had done better, 22% thought President Obama had done better, and 15% thought that it was a tie.
Marco Rubio slightly won the vice presidential debate. A CBS poll of uncommitted voters found that 43% of viewers tought that Rubio did better, while 38% tought that the Vice President did better. 19% tought that the debate was a tie among the two.
The second debate, a town-hall, was slightly won by the President. A Reuters poll released after the debate showed that 39% of viewers thought that the President won, 32% tought that Christie did better, while the remaining viewers tought that it was a tie.
The third and last debate, focused on foreign policy, was a tie. The polls conducted after the debate came to the same conclusion: almost one third tought Obama won it, one third tought Christie did better than the President, while the other third said that the debate was a tie.

A few days before the election, Hurricane Sandy affected 24 U.S. states, with particular damage in Chris Christie's home state of New Jersey. Both candidates canceled various campaign stops all around the nation and President Obama visited New Jersey, where he hugged with Governor Christie. Both candidates said that they don't regret that hug. “I don't regret it. First of being a presidential candidate, I'm the governor of New Jersey. The President came here to show his closeness and I thanked he” said Christie. This image traveled all around the world and we'll see if there'll be effects on the results of the presidential election.

In the final polls, Obama is holding a nationwide lead and also a lead in the electoral college map, but in October Christie reduced the gap in both national polls, states poll and electoral count. The President is leading in most of battleground states and according to a majority of predictions, including Nate Silver's 538 one, he's the favorite for the win. Karl Rove is predicting a Christie victory. Election night is very close and we'll see who is right.

"A crucial moment for the presidential candidates and for the american people" -- Wolf Blitzer



7 PM

It's now 7 PM on the east coast and we can make some projections. We can project that Governor Christie will carry Indiana and its 11 electoral votes. We move to neighboring Kentucky, where we can project that Governor Christie will win. Christie carries Kentucky and its 8 electoral votes. Now, we move to New England. We project that President Obama will carry 3 electoral votes from the state of Vermont. As of the other states, we can tell you that the battleground state of Virginia is too close to call, while both Georgia and South Carolina are too early to call: Christie seems to have a lead here, but we don't have enough informations for making a projection right at poll closings.
No surprises from this first bench of states. Chris Christie has 19 electoral votes right now, while the President has 3.


Right now, Governor Christie is leading by a strong margin in Virginia, but that's not a real surprise: the republican areas of the states come quickly in, while Northern Virginia, a traditional democratic stronghold, will come later. So we'll see this numbers starting to tightening soon. As of the other two states, Chris Christie is ahead in both Georgia and South Carolina


7:30 PM

It's now 7:30 PM and three states, including two crucial battlegrounds are about to close. Three, two, one, here we go! We can project the state of West Virginia and its 5 electoral votes for Governor Christie. That's not a surprise. We can also project that South Carolina, that closed at 7 PM, and its 9 electoral votes will be won too by the Governor of New Jersey. Now, we can move to the two battlegrounds. According to our informations, both Ohio and North Carolina are too close to call at this time. As of the electoral college, Chris Christie moves to electoral votes, while President Obama still has 3.


Chris Christie continues to have a lead in the state of Virginia, while the margin is closing on. Right now, the President is leading in the state of Ohio, while Governor Christie has an early lead in North Carolina. We remember that the state of Ohio has a democratic counting bias, so Christie will start to close the gap here soon.


7:55 PM

In 5 minutes, 15 states plus the District of Columbia will close, but right now we have a call from the state of Georgia. We can project that the state of Georgia and its 16 electoral votes will go to Governor Christie. A major win for the Governor out of Georgia. Right now, Christie moves to 49 electoral votes, while the President stays at 3.

"Wow! A lead of just one hundred votes here! What a close race!" -- Rachel Maddow


8 PM

It is now 8 PM on the east coast and we have various projections to make. We can project that Governor Christie will win Alabama and its 9 electoral votes, Mississippi and its 6 electoral votes and also will carry the state of Tennessee and its 11 votes. We are going to project a lot of states for the President: Connecticut and its 7 electoral votes, Delaware, worth 3 votes, the District of Columbia, worth 3, the state of Illinois and its 20 electoral votes, 3 out of 4 electoral votes in Maine, Maryland and its 10 electoral votes, Massachusetts and its 11 electoral votes and Rhode Island, worth 4 electoral votes. We cannot make a projection in Florida, too close to call at this time. Too close too call also in the states of New Hampshire, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. We also have not enough informations to make a projection in the state of Missouri.


In Marco Rubio's home state of Florida half of the final expected vote is in and Chris Christie is ahead. The President of the United States is ahead in New Jersey and New Hampshire. President Obama also has a lead in the state of Pennsylvania, but the state has a democratic counting bias as the most traditional republican counties usually start to report their numbers after the democratic areas. Missouri is too early to make a projection, but Chris Christie has a lead here. As of the states that closed at 7 and 7:30 PM, right now, 8 PM, Chris Christie continues to have a lead in the state of Virginia, but the margin is going to be more tight minute after minute. Ohio is the opposite of Virginia: the President continues to have a lead, but Christie is recovering here update after update. In North Carolina, it's still to close to call, but the President continues has a slight lead here.


8:30 PM

The polls have just closed in the state of Arkansas and we can project that Governor Chris Christie, the republican nominee, will win this state and its 6 electoral votes. Not a surprise.


We just projected another state for Governor Christie, but let's take a look at how things stand in battleground states. Chris Christie continues to have a lead in Virginia, but this is getting closer, closer and closer. In Ohio, the President has a slight lead, but Governor Christie is recovering here. Another good news for the Governor are that he jumped ahead of the president in the state of North Carolina and expanded his lead in Florida. The governor of New Jersey is still behind but it's recovering a bit in his home state of New Jersey, but expanded his lead in Missouri. As of the remaining two states at stake tonight, President Obama has a lead of one hundred votes in New Hampshire and is still leading in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania.

First of all, great job so far!

Second of all, you forgot to put in Christie's total in Connecticut.

Third of all, Christie performed better than Romney in Maine. Is this a sign of victory?

Thank you very much! :)


I'm trying to fix it but it's not working right now. It's 43.1%


We'll see. :)

Haha thanks :)

"Brace yourself. The night is still young and this thing will not be done soon." -- John King


9 PM

It's now 9 PM on the east coast and the polls are closing in 15 more states. We can project that Governor Christie will carry Kansas and its 6 electoral votes, Louisiana and its 8 electoral votes and 4 of 5 electoral votes from the great state of Nebraska. We also project that the Governor of New Jersey will win both Dakotas: 3 electoral votes from North Dakota and 3 from South Dakota. Another 3 electoral votes for the GOP nominee from Wyoming and, last but not least, big prize Texas and its 38 electoral votes will go to Chris Christie. For President Obama we can project the state of New York and its 29 electoral votes. We cannot make a projection in various states. In the state of Arizona, it's still to early to make a projection, but Governor Christie is in the lead. It's also too early to call in New Mexico, but here the incumbent President is ahead. Not too early, but too close to call in the states of Colorado, surprisingly in the states of Michigan and Minnesota. It's also too close to call, but it's not a real surprise, in Wisconsin.


Let's take a look at the votes coming from battleground states. Chris Christie has a very small lead in Virginia, where the President recovered a lot. The inverse situation in the state of Ohio: Obama keeps a small lead, but the Governor of New Jersey is on the rise. Governor Christie is opening a lead in North Carolina and Florida, he's ahead in Missouri but is currently trailing the President in New Hampshire, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, but in both of those states, expecially in Pennsylvania, he's on the rise. Obama has an early lead in New Mexico, where he's still favored, as does Christie in the state of Arizona. In Colorado, right now, we have a very close race. Very close races as well in the other states: Governor Christie is ahead in Wisconsin and the incumbent president is slightly ahead in Michigan and Minnesota, but we have to remember our viewers that all 3 of those states have a republican counting bias.

"This election is getting closer, closer and closer. This might be 2000 all over again." -- Wolf Blitzer


10 PM

It's now 10 PM on the east coast and we can project several states for Chris Christie. We project that the New Jersey governor has won the state of Montana and its 3 electoral votes, the state of Utah, worth 6 electoral votes and also we can project a state that closed at 8 PM: it's Missouri, we project that Chris Christie will win Missouri and its 10 electoral votes. At this time, it's too close to call in the state of Iowa and it's also too close to call in the state of Nevada.


Now, let's take a look at how things stand in too close to call states. In Iowa, right now, President Obama is ahead by a pretty large margin, but remember: this state has a democratic counting bias, so the Governor of New Jersey will recover here. In the other state that closed at 10 PM, Nevada, the President has a lead over Christie. Now, let's go with the other states that closed at 7 PM or later. In Virginia, the President jumped ahead by few votes. In Ohio, Chris Christie is now ahead of the President by almost one point. Chris Christie is expanding his lead in both North Carolina and Florida, is still behind in New Jersey, while he's recovering in both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, where a few number of votes separate the President and the Governor. In Arizona, Chris Christie mantains a lead, while the President of the United States is ahead in the states of Colorado and New Mexico. The President is now ahead in Wisconsin, while he's expanding his lead in both Minnesota and Wisconsin.


10:05

We can now project that President Obama will win New Mexico and its 5 electoral votes.


10:30

It's now 10:30 PM and we can make various projections on battleground states. We can project that President Obama will carry the state of Virginia and its 13 electoral votes. We also project another state for the President, and it's Colorado, worth 9 electoral votes. Last but not least, we can project that Governor Chris Christie will carry the state of Arizona and its 11 electoral votes. Governor Christie moves to 183 electoral votes, while President Obama is getting 120.


Let's take a look at the battleground states of the night. The President is still ahead in both Iowa and Nevada, states that closed at 10 PM. As of the other states, Chris Christie remains ahead and expands his lead in the states of Ohio, North Carolina and Florida. The President is ahead in Chris Christie's home state of New Jersey and is ahead by just 8 votes in the Granite State, New Hampshire. What a close race here! The President is also ahead in Pennsylvania, but here it's getting closer, closer and closer, as Governor Christie continues to recover minute after minute. Good news for the President from the trio of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin: he's expanding his lead in all of those. Since we have a winner in Virginia, a clear leader in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, it's probable that this election will come down to Pennsylvania.

Obama seems like he might win.

Great job so far!

Thanks!

"Everyone might still win this. The next President might be decided by a few thousand votes" -- Rachel Maddow


10:50

We have a bunch of projections to make right now. We can project that Governor Christie will carry Florida, the homestate of his running mate Marco Rubio, and its 29 electoral votes and the electoral vote from the second congressional district of Nebraska. For the President, we can project the state of Michigan, and its 16 electoral votes and the states of Minnesota and Wisconsin, both worth 10 electoral votes.


11 PM

The polls have just closed in 5 states and we can project that California and its 55 electoral votes will be won by President Obama. We also project for the President the state of Hawaii and its 4 electoral votes and the state of Washington and its 12 electoral votes. We can also project the state of Idaho and its 4 electoral votes for Governor Christie. At this hour, we have not enough informations to make a projection in the state of Oregon, but we can make two projection for states that closed earlier: we can project that Governor Christie will win the swing state of North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes. For the President of the United States, we can project one electoral vote from the second congressional district of Maine. Thanks to those big prize win, President Obama has moved just 4 electoral votes short of Chris Christie: 232 for the Governor, 228 for the President of the United States.


Let's take a look at the battlegrounds. Obama has an early but pretty solid lead in Oregon, is still ahead in Iowa but Christie here recovered a bit. The President is also ahead in Nevada, in New Jersey. Governor Christie is still ahead in the state of Ohio, jumped ahead in New Hampshire and is behind the President in Pennsylvania, but here the Governor continues to recover minute after minute.


11:12

We have a big news to report. We can now project that Governor Chris Christie will carry the state of Ohio. We repeat: Chris Christie has won Ohio and its 18 electoral votes. Governor Christie hits 250, while Obama stays at 228.

I'd say the only state Christie can win are NH and PA as of now.

This is exciting!

Looks like PA will decide the election.

"Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania" -- Chris Matthews


11:25

We have another big projection to make. President Obama has won the state of New Jersey and its 14 electoral votes. Chris Christie is the current governor of New Jersey, he made this traditional democratic state competitive tonight but not enough to win. President Obama moves to 242 electoral votes, just 8 behind Chris Christie.


11:45

We can project 2 states for the President: Barack Obama will carry the swing state of Nevada and its 6 electoral votes. Another important win comes from Oregon: Obama will win Oregon and its 7 electoral votes. Thanks to Nevada and Oregon, President Obama jumps ahead in the electoral college: 255 to 250. It's very close, but now it's clear that Pennsylvania will be the state that will decide who our next President will be.


11:53

Another big projection for the President. Obama has won the state of Iowa and its 6 electoral votes. The President is now 11 votes ahead of Chris Christie in the electoral college.


At this hour, both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are too close to call. This election comes down to Pennsylvania, where Chris Christie jumped ahead by almost 100 votes. This is very close and might go every way. There are votes left to count in both democratic and republican areas. If Christie wins Pennsylvania, he moves to 270. If Obama wins Pennsylvania, he moves to 281. So, Pennsylvania will decide our next President. In New Hampshire it's also very close, with Governor Christie slightly ahead of the President.


01 AM

Now, we can project that the state of Alaska and its 3 electoral votes will be won by Governor Christie. Christie moves to 253, Obama stays at 261.

This is exciting. Go Obama! Though I have to wonder just how outrageous would a Christie presidency be. He could have a huge version of Bridgegate.

"An historic moment. Governor Chris Christie is now President elect Chris Christie." -- Wolf Blitzer



After a long night of waiting, Chris Christie was declared the winner of the states of New Hampshire and expecially Pennsylvania, that put him over the top. President Obama graciously conceded to Christie and wished him the best. Governor Christie accepted victory from his home state of New Jersey, said that he was committed to be “President of all Americans”.


While the republicans won the presidency, the democrats retained the Senate. The net gain was Democrats + 1: the party led by Senator Reid moved to 52, while the Republicans led by Senator McConnell lost one seat and now have 46. There are still 2 independent senator, both of them will caucus with Democrats. Democrats gained the open seats of Indiana (Donnelly defeated Mourdock by 5 points), Connecticut (Murphy defeated McMahon) and defeated the incumbent republican in Massachusetts (Warren defeated Senator Brown by 2 points). The republicans gained two seats: the open seat of Nebraska (Fischer defeated Kerrey) and the North Dakota seat (Berg defeated Heitkamp by 3 points). Independent lost one open seat in Connecticut, but gained one in Maine with King and retained Vermont with Senator Sanders. As of the other competitive races, Senator Brown defeated Josh Mandel by almost 2 points in Ohio. The Democrats retained Virginia with Tim Kaine defeating George Allen by 3 points, Wisconsin with Tammy Baldwin defeating Tommy Thompson by 4 points and Montana, where incument Jon Tester defeated Denny Rehberg by one point. Two competitive seats were retained by the Republicans: Nevada, with Dean Heller defeating Shelley Berkely by 2 points and Arizona, where Jeff Flake defeated Richard Carmona by 4 points. The republicans retained the control of the House of Representatives.

As of competitive governor races, the Republicans picked up three seats: Montana, with Rick Hill defeating incumbent Steve Bullock by 2 points, North Carolina, with Pat McCrory defeating Walter Dalton by 13 points and Washington state, with Rob McKenna defeating Jay Inslee by two thousand votes. The republicans retained the Indiana governorship with Mike Pence defeating John Gregg by almost 5 points. Democrats retained the state of West Virginia with Earl Ray Tomblin defeating Bill Maloney by 2 points. As of other states, Democrats won New Hampshire, Vermont, Missouri and Delaware, while Republicans won North Dakota and Utah.

This was the story of a most interesting, a different 2012. Hope you enjoyed it!

Wow! Amazing job!

Please make another timeline :)

I enjoyed this very much!

Thank you all so much! :)