Talk Elections

http://www.scribd.com/doc/283708713/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Iowa-Annotated-Questionnaire-October-2015

The more people see Hillary, the more they dislike her. IA and NH have seen her more than any other group of voters. Even hapless Yeb is beating Hil in IA.

Is it so hard to post the poll and the numbers?

NBC/WSJ/Marist October Poll:

Iowa:

Bush 50
Clinton 40

Trump 48
Clinton 41

Fiorina 52
Clinton 38

Bush 46
Sanders 44

Sanders 48
Trump 43

Fiorina 45
Sanders 42

NH:

Bush 49
Clinton 42

Clinton 48
Trump 45

Fiorina 50
Clinton 42

Bush 46
Sanders 46

Sanders 52
Trump 42

Sanders 47
Fiorina 45

It makes little sense that Clinton is up ten points in Wisconsin while being ten points down in Iowa; or for  that matter that Sanders is up double digits in Wisconsin but down in Iowa and his neighboring state.

This could be a campaign collapse.

Iowa has never liked the Clintons so it really isn't surprising.

I think Iowa may be Tilt Republican at this present time. The voter registration numbers confirm it as the Republicans have far outpaced the Democrats and have solidified their leads. Don't say it's "off-year" because the Dems normally retake the lead in the midterms too. This time they declined in the midterm year and the GOP continued to grow.

GOP Pickups in this order:
Iowa
Florida
Colorado
Ohio
Virginia
New Hampshire
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
New Mexico (depending on the candidate)
Michigan
etc....

Iowa has consistently shown a GOP trend and open presidential years like these are where it will show if the trend is true or not.

Watching this Hillary-trainwreck and her campaign limping on hurts my eyes.

AZ, KY and GA are all based on old polls.

Those would be heavily GOP in new polls.

OH and PA would be tossups or lean-GOP.

And if you add KY, AZ, and GA it become...
GOP: 241 EV
Clinton: 255

I'm moving Iowa to Lean R (from Toss-up) and New Hampshire to Toss-up (from Lean D).

NH's early flirtations with the GOP are nothing unusual (Romney, for example, was ahead by double digits in NH in 2011). All the Sanders supporters will rally around Clinton on election day.


PA would flip before NV and NH. Maybe even VA, but I'm not sure about that one.

Most Democratic to Most Republicans out of all the swing states:

New Mexico (debatable)
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Nevada
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Virginia
Ohio
Florida
North Carolina

LOL @ the Dem 272 "firewall"

For 2016 and 2016 only:

New Mexico
Nevada (I'm starting to get more worried about how we will do with Hispanics in 2016)
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
New Hampshire
Virginia
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Ohio
Iowa
Florida
North Carolina

I do have to say that the GOP being up by that much in Iowa sure is surprising. We'll see once the candidates are decided.

Iowa is unpredictable, but the Jeb numbers are irrelevant, so.

New Mexico & Minnesota will be more Republican than Michigan, and possibly Wisconsin. Unless Rubio is nominated and picks Walker, we're doomed in Wisconsin.

In other news, we have ourselves one of the most aesthetically pleasing maps possible:
()

I, for one, don't think we'll get Jesusland v2.0.
 How are Jeb's numbers irrelevant?

Jeb is a nonfactor, he wont be nominee its Trump or Fiorina and she can beat either one.

haha actually no, jeb's numbers are not irrelevant.

He's continuously up on a previously D+1 battleground state by 5+ points and Hillarys consistent favorability and view in the state is in the trench.

Jeb won't be the nominee, he's in single digits in polling behind less experienced candidates and his donors are even concerned about that.

This is October 2015, you all know that?

She'll lose to Rubio, she has a good chance against Jeb.

But these numbers are just crushing to her. I mean, Sanders is consistently polling 5+ points ahead of her. Yeah, the "unelectable" socialist candidate. If she's losing these two states she's likely losing the country.

Hilary is ahead by 5 against Sanders

Good point.

CO/Ia/Va & OH will be close.

wat

That comment should have been on the primary board.

NH polls do tend to overstate the GOP's standing at this point in the cycle.  I'm not so sure about Iowa though....

These polls are oversampling the GOP primary electorate relative to general election voters. Obama approval if it's 47% or so nationally should not be 42% in these states.

That said, I expect NH to keep it's D lean but I see Iowa having an R+1 PVI and flipping with Virginia relative to the national map.

No it makes perfect sense. WI voters havent seen her so she is polling like a Dem would poll in WI. NH and IA have seen her up close and DONT LIKE WHAT THEY SEE.

They are not aware, it seems.

Too bad this poll did not poll Rubio against the Dem candidates.

Evidently not.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=142146.0

We assume that people have been through more seasons and should know better.

Not polling co-Frontrunner Ben Carson but polling Jeb Bush? Garbage poll.