Talk Elections

As soon as the election campaign thread dies out, people can start using this as the venue to discuss the 42nd Parliament, the new government, etc.

Demographics of the new parliament:

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/women-and-visible-minorities-make-election-gains-154729934.html

Beliebers of all countries, unite!

Looks like Trudeau is being hammered out the gate over Keystone.

Wow. Didn't expect that. I know it came up in the campaign and I know new governments love to do something symbolic on foreign policy, but fighting IS from the air can't be that controversial... even Dutch Labour doesn't mind it.

Minister of Public Works Diane Finely is rumoured to be getting the interim Tory leader job. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-jenni-byrne-tossed-1.3280702)

So what does this mean for CEFTA and the TPP?


I read that the Liberals are in favor of Keystone "with conditions", so is that code for "lol jk it's dead" or was there actually a chance they would support it if Obama had not taken a stand against it? I'm assuming that the Liberals are just going to let it die after all the criticism Harper got for being obsessed with it and annoying Obama.

I was reading the criticism on The Harper Decade blog that Harper had let Canada become too dependent on energy to power the economy. Is this a widely held sentiment, and if so, have the Liberals put forth any plans regarding a reorientation of Canada's economy?

Also, how are the Conservatives (voter base and the party machinery) reacting to this? Are there hysterical breakdowns about the country abandoning them, rage and blame directed at Harper, or shellshock and disbelief that this happened? Are there Conservative voices calling for "moderation" or a change in tone, ala post-Romney's defeat?

How are the New Democrats doing? Are they okay? Manuevering to make something of the Liberal majority and see if they can influence anything?

Both deals will stand. Fellow Tories that I'm acquainted with know what we have to do and the leadership process is already underway. On a personal note, I expected to lose even if I hoped we could turn it around in the campaign. All the serious potential leadership contenders have said we need a more optimistic tone and less confrontational media style, and agree that policy fundamentals are fine.

I feel quite bad for Tom Mulcair, who seemed like a knowledgeable gent whose party got caught in the Trudeaumentum.

So what is Mulcair doing? Will he seriously try to stay on as leader?

Party has made clear that Mulcair can stay if he wants. There's a leadership review next spring, but he'd cruise.

Has Mulcair made it clear he wants to stay on?

He hasn't said anything yet. Everyone speaking on and off the record is saying he can stay and anyone who pushes will be "quite publicly slapped." (http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/10/20/ndp-will-let-thomas-mulcair-decide-his-fate-as-leader.html?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed) Considering who lost, there aren't many surviving contenders. The precedent might be Howard Hampton, who got squashed by flash polarization in 1999 and 2003 but stayed as leader until 2009.

What a stupid thing. We can help make a difference in this conflict (and it's one we have a big stake in) with minuscule negative consequences for our nation. Sigh.

Well, Hampton had to deal with Bob Rae's catastrophic legacy, so probably nobody expected him to do better. Mulcair was dealt the best hand imaginable and completely blew it.

Anyway, I guess you're right that there's nobody left to replace him...

What was he supposed to do when everyone started talking about niqabs?

Happy he stuck to his word....good move.

There is no other real candidate to lead the NDP other than Mulcair and throwing him away could result in their Quebec damage being irreparable. Mulcair ran a bad campaign but he is still the only person who has the capacity to unite their Quebec and non Quebec voters, and people still know and like him. Take the time to rebuild their bases of support and refine a center-leftist image in opposition. Infighting is the opposite of what that party needs right now.

What are we to make of the Bloc? They don't have official party status, nor has Duceppe been elected; but will this mini-revival stave off their demise?

I think the NDP is in not that bad a shape in retrospect. Their caucus is a lot more balanced - before it seemed to be Quebec + a handful of other guys, now it seems less vulnerable to the strange and fickle nature of the Québécois electorate. They lost a lot of talented people, but they stil exist - and I imagine a lot of the carer ones could enter their provincial NDP politics and really stir the pot. Plus Trudeau's cabinet is going to be full of people like Blair and Leslie who will probably lose the "progressive" label pretty quickly.


The hard part for the NDP is either getting a decent and reliable hold on Toronto seats or looking away from the capital. He GTA is just a frustrating region for the party.

Correct; people who are acting as though they are in a terrible state have clearly not been following Canadian politics for very long (or have forgotten what they used to know). I would also note that there's now more 'logic' to NDP support patterns in Quebec that indicates that they may have attracted a proper base rather than what looked like borrowings from elsewhere.


What's new? Toronto has always been a frustration for the federal NDP. Significant breakthroughs in the past have never lasted either.

I actually haven't been following Canadian politics for very long, so why is this?

Anne McGrath, the NDP's campaign manager, said she expects Mulcair to lead them into another election.

Canadian soldiers are still helping train Kurdish forces in northern Iraq, which is probably a more practical use of Canadian resources than bombing ISIS, which over a dozen other countries are doing.

An interesting question for policy wonks:

Premier Wynne introduced a pension plan in Ontario after Harper refused to expand CPP. Trudeau now has a majority and wants to expand CPP, but that would take a lot of time and negotiations with the provinces. Will/should she continue implementing the new pension plan only to possibly cancel it after a very short period of time, or should she hold off and try to help Trudeau fast track a new solution

I'm pretty sure I read she would suspend her plan if Trudeau won.

Duceppe is quitting tomorrow (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/gilles-duceppe-reacts-federal-election-1.3282887)

Does BQ have any capable leader to replace him with? Is it likely that this election could be for them what 1997 was for the PCs? Wishful thinking, I know... :P

Finley running for interim. (http://www.cfra.com/NationalCP/Article.aspx?id=483922) She should be the consensus choice. Clement's considering the permanent leadership and presumably she consulted with Nicholson, the only other plausible choice. Ideally convention held within a year so next fall we're back in business.

Mario Beaulieu was the pre-Duceppe leader, and won his seat. I'd consider him a favourite, although admittedly I know nothing about the rest of the BQ caucus. Also, keep in mind that the Bloc vote decreased and they only won more seats because their main competitor, the NDP, collapsed and the Liberal wave was not nearly as strong as the 2011 NDP wave in francophone areas. The next election where the Francophone vote consolidates behind a single federalist party will also be the election where the Bloc is finally wiped out, I wouldn't call that wishful thinking.

Louis Plamondon is a plausible candidate. He's one of the BQ founders and doesn't have an extremist reputation. However he's in his 70's, and didn't run in the last two leadership contests. He may not want the job.

Rheal Fortin, newly elected MP for Riviere du Nord has been named interim Bloc leader.

You're saying this as if it's bound to happen... For all we know, Québec could remain split 4-way for tbe next 50 years... :P

Historically, Francophone Quebec has voted as block for one party. This election was the aberration. The BQ MPs mostly won by narrow margins, single digits mostly. Only a modest improvement from the LPC or NDP would be necessary to take them out.

And also Duceppe is basically their only good politician. He's funny, can argue a point well, has a wide appeal etc. we'll see if the new bunch has anybody who can hold a candle, but for the most part Quebec is less interested in having sovereignties in parliament, locking the province from influencing government by entering power.

There is a possibility of electoral reform for the next election (unless it was only campaign promise that they don't intend to pursue). This could change how MPs are elected. Perhaps parties with new leaders next time should not hurry to select new leaders because depending on the system it can influence what type of leader is preferable.

Tory leadership is getting ugly. (http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/conservative-caucus-unrest-mounts/)

Poilievre on opposition life. (http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/reevely-pierre-poilievre-ottawas-last-conservative-standing?hootPostID=74cd961221a721c6cb834622c35936a1)

Not surprised Harper still wants to pull the strings even after he was defeated. ::)

He's really in a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. If he stays on as MP, he'll be accused of holding back party rebuilding, and the Liberals will gleefully turn 2019 into a second referendum on Harper. If he resigns like Prentice, he'll be forever disgraced and ostracized from the party.

Oh well, the least he could have done was find a consensus interim leader who would assume control first thing on October 20. That was too much for his ego, though.

Do you guys think Elizabeth May will remain Green party leader for the entirety of the incoming Parliament?

I think so. Assuming Trudeau keeps his promise to kill FPTP, she needs to prepare the party for 2019 when they will almost definitely elect a sizeable caucus and become a permanent force in Parliament.

Just in case you needed further proof that journalists can't do math.

Jeffery Simpson: Soft nationalists moved en masse back to the Bloc (BQ change in Quebec: -4.1%)

Conrad Black: The Tories "substantially increased their share in Quebec", (Con change in Quebec: +0.2%)

::)

I think the correct thing to do would be to quit when the new leader is elected. That should be long enough for the Liberal honeymoon to subside and to avoid any "quitting on election night" backlash, while still getting out of the way well in advance of the election.

IMO he should have stated himself on election night that he will step aside as party leader, he is proud of watching the party grow up, that it's time for it to make its own future, and that he will strictly sit as a backbencher.

Not doing so, even if he truly is merely a backbencher, allows the Liberals to accuse Harper of still secretly leading the party. They'll take the punditry speculating about Harper influencing the leadership race and run with attack ads showing Harper pulling the new leader's strings. Then Justin is guaranteed re-election (provided there's no video of him strangling a kitten).

For the good of the party, the leadership convention needs to be delayed to, say, 2017. And then Harper himself quietly resigns as an MP on a Friday night next, say, July, before quietly moving on to whatever else he wants to do. That gives the party enough time to rethink its direction and conduct a thorough debate about its future.

Does someone have a link to the Macleans article about ethnic diversity in the new parliament? It had a nice visual break down, and I can't seem to find it.

This one?

http://www.macleans.ca/shape-of-the-house/

Yes, thank you.

Excellent Hebert column on the referendum's 20th anniversary today. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/10/30/election-vote-in-quebec-should-cause-renewed-worry-in-sovereigntist-ranks.html) Highly recommend her and Lapierre's The Morning After.

Star revealed some senior portfolios: Goodale as DPM/House Leader, Brison at Finance, Dion at Environment, Freeland at Foreign Affairs or International Trade. (http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2015/11/01/how-justin-trudeau-picked-his-new-cabinet-hepburn.html) Vaughan and Bennett won't make it.

I would have preferred Morneau, but Brison is a good pick to reassure Bay St. I'm kind of curious to see how much an effect he will have on the budget, given that he was a quasi-libertarian at times during his two leadership campaigns. He was pro-private healthcare, pro-EI reform (which is weird considering how EI reform screwed the Tories in ATL), and I think he has said some nice things about corporate tax cuts and flat taxes.

More than that: he proposed eliminating capital gains taxes 4 years ago. (http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/scott-brison-how-the-liberals-might-yet-be-saved) But he'll follow the Grit pattern of other Blue finance ministers who served under Red PMs...

Throwing this in here because it Canadian:

Last year Saskatchewan unveiled the Boundary Dam CO2 captured power plant.  It was expensive, $1.5B loonies for 110MW of coal generated power (10x the NG CC generation could be built for that price tag), but it is the cutting edge of technology for coal to possibly be environmentally friendly and there was a unique situation were the CO2 could be sold for oil recovery purposes.  The plant won all the "new plant of the year" awards and the Sask government including Premier Bruce Wall touted the plant running at 90% efficiency.  

Unfortunately, that 90% efficiency only refers to when the plant has been running, and due to a myriad of problems the plant has only run 45% of the time in the last year.  90% of 45% means it really capturing 40% of the CO2 it was expect to.  Since there was an agreement to sell the CO2 to an oil company named Cenovus and SaskPower hasn't been able to meet their contractual obligations they have had to pay fines to Cenovus.  

Power Magazine Article (http://www.powermag.com/saskpower-admits-to-problems-at-first-full-scale-carbon-capture-project-at-boundary-dam-plant/)

Local Newspaper (http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/sask+premier+wall+defends+lack+transparency+problems+carbon/11478199/story.html)

Lots of other Canadian articles available on the issue.  Looks like there will be lots of lawsuits and pointing of fingers over the various mechanical issues at the plant.  And really, given what is happening in the US at Edwardsport and Kemper, it shouldn't be a surprise that there were problems, though the magnitude and ability to keep problems under wrap for so long is surprising.

The one question I haven't seen asked, given that the government and power executives all say that problems should be expected in the first year of a cutting edge plant like this, is why didn't they negotiate that into the contract with Cenovus?  I mean if it was all expected, why commit to a contract and fines when you expect in advance there to be a problem meeting that commitment?

As a footnote, Premier Wall is supposed to be part of the Canadian delegation that goes to Paris for the Climate talks.  I'm sure he'll have a lovely booth.

Any predictions re: Trudeau's Cabinet?

Robert Falcon-Ouelette won't be in it.  (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/robert-falcon-ouellette-not-in-justin-trudeau-s-cabinet-despite-predictions-1.3302511)

Goodale doesn't go back to Finance. Sean Casey gets Justice.

The full cabinet list:

Justin Trudeau (Quebec) - Prime Minister, Intergovernmental Affairs and Youth.
Ralph Goodale (Saskatchewan) - Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness.
Lawrence MacAulay (P.E.I.) - Agriculture and Agri-Food.
Stéphane Dion (Quebec) - Foreign Affairs.
John McCallum (Ontario) - Immigration, Citizenship and Refugees.
Carolyn Bennett (Ontario) - Indigenous and Northern Affairs.
Scott Brison (Nova Scotia) - Treasury Board President.
Dominic Leblanc (New Brunswick) - Leader of the Government in the House of Commons.
Navdeep Bains (Ontario) - Innovation, Science and Economic Development.
Bill Morneau (Ontario) - Finance Minister.
Jody Wilson-Raybould (B.C.) - Justice and Attorney General of Canada.
Judy Foote (Newfoundland and Labrador) - Public Services and Procurement.
Chrystia Freeland (Ontario) - International Trade.
Jane Philpott (Ontario) - Health.
Jean-Yves Duclos (Quebec) - Families, Children and Social Development.
Marc Garneau (Quebec) - Transport.
Marie-Claude Bibeau (Quebec) - International Development and La francophonie.
Jim Carr (Manitoba) - Natural Resources.
Mélanie Joly (Quebec) - Heritage.
Diane Lebouthillier (Quebec) - National Revenue.
Kent Hehr (Alberta) - Veterans Affairs, and Associate Minister of National Defence.
Catherine McKenna (Ontario) - Environment and Climate Change.
Harjit Sajjan (B.C.) - National Defence.
MaryAnn Mihychuck (Manitoba) - Employment Workforce Development and Labour.
Amarjeet Sohi (Alberta) - Infrastructure and Communities.
Maryam Monsef (Ontario) - Democratic Institutions.
Carla Qualtrough (B.C.) - Sport, and Persons with Disabilities.
Hunter Tootoo (Nunavut) - Fisheries and Oceans, and Canadian Coastguard.
Kirsty Duncan (Ontario) - Science.
Patricia Hajdu (Ontario) - Status of Women.
Bardish Chagger (Ontario) - Small Business and Tourism.

Certainly the most diverse Cabinet we've ever seen. 

Also half women.

The long-form census will be back in time for next year's census. RIP FREEDUMB / RIP MUH PRIVACY

Keystone rejected.

NS Environment minister Andrew Younger has been expelled from the Liberal caucus. He failed to appear as a witness in the assault trial of the staffer he was having an affair with. The woman allegedly assaulted him after he broke up with her when he was named to cabinet.

Can someone explain why the long form census was such a big deal?

So this just happened. (https://twitter.com/leeberthiaume/status/662710474153201664)

The long form census provides important demographic data that is often used to shape major decisions at all levels of government, most notably taxes and spending.  Voluntary census forms, which replaced the long form census, do not provide accurate data for governments, since they are voluntary.  That makes policy crafting a challenge.  There were also accusations that Harper scrapped the long form census in order to muzzle Statistics Canada.

Den Tandt: Mulcair should quit. Names Cullen, Boulerice, Brosseau as potential successors. (http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/michael-den-tandt-mulcair-ran-a-principled-campaign-and-lost-heres-why-the-ndp-may-want-a-new-leader)

Ruth Ellen Brosseau: from Carleton University bartender to Prime Minister in eight years. :o

Brosseau is a badass but she's too young. Mulcair is probably fine where he is for now.

Good articles (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/un-to-aid-canada-in-identifying-resettling-syrian-refugees/article27186014/) on the refugee issue. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/11/11/refugees-as-a-long-term-investment-in-the-country-tim-harper.html)

Municipalities, social service agencies, business etc. want reliable data.  If it's voluntary, it's hard to say how accurate the data really is.  Statscan suppressed the data for many smaller municipalitie.

About half a dozen people in the country objected due to privacy concerns. 

Why it's almost as if accurate data and ability to analyze the population is a key part of a modern society...

Upcoming First Ministers meeting (http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trudeau-to-meet-with-premiers-on-nov-23-ahead-of-climate-change-conference-1.2655595), Trudeau audience with HMQ  (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/justin-trudeau-the-queen-buckingham-palace-1.3315981)before CHOGM, meeting Obama at G20.
 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/12/us-g20-turkey-obama-idUSKCN0T129J20151112#PDlb963HcCHsgZlK.97)


Evan Solomon gets the refugee planning scoop. (http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/1000-refugees-a-day-to-be-flown-to-canada-document-shows/)

Excellent: Elections Alberta may deregister the Progressives. (http://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/braid-buoyed-by-pc-plight-wildrose-members-plot-path-to-power?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

I'm told that part of the article was written in error; we have till Monday at 4:30 to file, and I'm told that all the documentation will be in.

Here in QC, Immigration will process 2700 refugee files by Dec. 18. (http://www.lapresse.ca/international/crise-migratoire/201511/16/01-4921354-accueillir-6000-refugies-dici-janvier-impossible-dit-quebec.php)

Jason Kenney's Twitter diarrhea is so unprofessional. It's as if he doesn't accept the election results. If this sets the tone for the leadership race, the CPC will be lucky to hold 30% in 2019.

Mexican visa requirement will be lifted. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/justin-trudeau-formally-commits-to-lifting-visa-requirement-for-mexicans-1.3323013)

Wells' interview with the French ambassador. (http://www.macleans.ca/news/world/why-frances-ambassador-to-canada-can-live-with-trudeaus-plans/)

Refugee airlift won't start for another week for logistical reasons, UN diplomats would privately prefer a slower timeline. (http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/clock-ticking-on-canadas-refugee-plan-while-un-diplomats-express-concern-over-timeline)

First group of refugees will arrive at Valcartier by Dec. 1.  (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-city-military-valcartier-syrian-refugees-1.3326088)Meanwhile the feds have started looking for civilian winterized housing. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/11/19/ottawa-ramping-up-search-for-winter-housing-for-thousands.html)

Tory Shadow Cabinet, via Dale Smith. (https://twitter.com/journo_dale/status/667708434515697665)

()

So Armstrong is in the shadow cabinet. Interesting. I assume he plans on running again. He should have a decent shot if Casey retires.

Also, no Kenney on the front bench? Whats up with that?

Maybe because its obvious that he's going to run as soon as the moment comes up, so then what's the point if he'll just have to step down in the near future?

NWT votes in a non-partisan general election today.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/11/20/n-w-t-voters-faces-tough-choices-in-gloomy-election_n_8609244.html

I don't know much about their issues sadly.

Alberta PC MLA and former Cabinet Minister Manmeet Bhullar was killed tonight when he stopped to help a stranded motorist on the highway (http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-conservative-mla-manmeet-bhullar-killed-in-highway-crash-1.3331978)

Ottawa-Vanier MP Mauril Belanger has Lou Gehrig's disease.

I'm a bit confused regarding shadow cabinets. Does only the official opposition party create a shadow cabinet, or do all opposition parties? What if a party doesn't have enough seats to create a full cabinet, do they double up?

all parties have a shadow cabinet that are in the legislature. If a party  such as the BQ does not have a member for each shadow cabinet position, then the party in question  will combine a few positions. Some positions may also be ignored in the shadow cabinet.

Parliamentary secretaries, including 3 for JT - Caesar-Chavannes as primary, Vaughan as an alternate for IG of all things. (http://pm.gc.ca/sites/pm/files/docs/secretaires_parlementaires_f.pdf)

Geoff Regan elected House of Commons Speaker.

Woot, my MP

QP matchups to watch. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/parliament-government-ministers-critics-question-period-1.3351385)

Math is hard.  (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-to-concede-tax-plan-wont-add-up/article27628146/)

Pink slips and running shoes? (http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/liberals-plan-to-ask-harper-s-patronage-appointments-to-step-aside-source-1.2689361)

Quarterly CRA polls are out. They neglected to poll Newfoundland on the usual schedule due to the election.

Nova Scotia
Lib: 64% (+14)
PC: 17% (-3)
NDP: 17% (-11)

New Brunswick
Lib: 55% (+19)
PC: 25% (-3)
NDP: 12% (-13)
Green: 7% (-3)

PEI
Lib: 61% (+15)
PC: 18% (-4)
Green: 11% (-2)
NDP: 9% (-9)

Nothing too interesting. Libs popular, Tories not, promiscusous progs dump NDP for Libs.

Unite the Right in Alberta? (http://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/braid-growing-anger-at-the-ndp-could-lead-to-conservative-union)

Or maybe not? (http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/jean-makes-unite-the-right-overture-but-mlas-arent-so-sure)

In other new: new Alberta poll from ThinkHQ (http://thinkhq.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/EOA-December-2015-Prov-HR-Release.pdf) (change from Nov. 2015 in brackets)

Wildrose: 33% (+1)
NDP: 29% (-3)
PC: 25% (+2)
Liberal: 8% (n/c)
Alberta Party: 3% (-1)

I've come to the conclusions that 99% of people are complete idiots when it comes to pensions, especially political ones.

A Nova Scotia panel has recommended that the time served for MLA's to get their pension be reduced to two years. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/nova-scotia-mlas-to-get-pension-eligibility-after-2-years-1.2604097) I disagree with the position, but it's not totally unreasonable. More to the point, the panel is suggesting partial pensions that scale up over time

Cue eleventy billion comments about how "I should be an MLA for two years, quit and get a full pension."

>:(

So people are threatening to kill Rachel Notley.

I'm pretty pissed off at this. Hoping the RCMP takes names and rounds up these people and makes an example of them.

They won't. Knowing RCMP, it's very possible the threats come from RCMP people.

RCMP. Nasty bunch of people.

Is all this anger over a farm safety bill? Topkek

Apparently some rednecks think it is LITERALLY genocide.

...the Mounties?

Essentially, family farmers were concerned that the implementation of the rules would threaten the viability of their farms, and they were highly annoyed by the lack of consultation from the government and the government's refusal to delay passing the bill until after the legislature's winter break.  Then the Wildrose decided to take that simmering anger in the rural areas and whip it up into a frenzy.

So, what, farmers think it's fine to endanger the security of their own family members if it's for the viability of the farm?

Nova Scotia's cyber bullying law has been struck down. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/cyberbullying-law-struck-down-1.3360612)

The most bizarre charge under the law involved a high school student posting nude photos of an NDP MLA (she was an actress, and they were stills from a part she played in a movie). Anyway, good riddance. It was a poorly written law.

In other words, genocide.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/police-likely-to-investigate-death-threats-against-rachel-notley-security-expert-says-1.3362620?cmp=rss

It doesn't matter if these people are just "howlers" as law enforcement puts it, they should be made an example of. There should be ZERO TOLERANCE for death threats against public figures.

We should probably set up a rotation to visit Hash in Kingston Pen then...

As much as Hash hated Harper, I do not recall any death threats.

He once made a joke about how Mike Harris be cooked in an oven. Not anywhere close to a death threat, but some people don't understand hyperbole...

That would be some kind of sadistic solitary confinement these days. :P

Although it's strangely very pretty these days. I went to school for my B.Ed. basically a block away.

This would have been after he was Premier, so not as treasonous.

Grits worried about an Albertan economic meltdown. (http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/john-ivison-liberals-fear-alberta-economic-meltdown)

Defeated Tory MP Steven Fletcher will be acclaimed as the PC candidate in Assiniboia for the next Manitoba provincial election.

 Romeo Saganash MP (NDP, Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou) won't seek a 3rd term in 2019. (http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Politique/2015/12/27/002-saganash-romeo-quitte-vie-politique-npd.shtml)

Will Trudeau loosen the PMO reins? Believe if seen.
 (http://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2016/01/01/will-justin-trudeau-keep-his-promise-to-loosen-pmos-grip-delacourt.html)

No surprise that Trudeau shrunk from pink slips and running shoes, at least so far. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-wont-force-tory-appointed-neb-members-to-step-down/article27986653/)

Trudeaus vacationing in St. Kitts-Nevis.  (http://timescaribbeanonline.com/2016/01/01/canadian-prime-minister-justin-trudeau-on-vacation-in-the-beautiful-paradise-of-st-kitts-nevis/)

Fife said 5 senators will be appointed this month.

Seamus O'Regan tweeted that he's entering a treatment program to adopt an alcohol-free lifestyle, will be back for Parliament's return. Best wishes to him.

The NS NDP leadership election will be on Feb 27th, and will use IRV. (http://thechronicleherald.ca/opinion/1330102-howe-room-preferential-ballot-adds-new-twist-to-ndp-race)

Tl;dr of the linked article:

Burrill: Left wing socialist
Wilson: Dexter-wing, centrist
Zann: In between

He doesn't sound that left wing, from what I've read.

It's Nova Scotia. No one's very anything.

Trudeau aiming for a Chinese FTA. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news/politics/trudeau-sets-sights-on-free-trade-deal-with-china/article28029612/?cmpid=rss1)

Jean-François Fortin, founder and leader of Forces et Démocratie is leaving politics.

It's fitting as the voters left him.

Hardly got any coverage as they said it wouldn't be held until 2017.  Was the date just announced?  I would have assumed based on the lack of coverage (and likely lack of interest in the general public) that they'd have waited until at least May.

Not on the Nanos website yet:
http://www.news1130.com/2016/01/06/weak-economy-and-low-loonie-not-hurting-trudeau-governments-popularity/

"Around 60 per cent of people surveyed by Nanos Research say they’re remarkably happy with what Justin Trudeau’s government is doing. (I think 'remarkably happy' is the reporter Simon Druker's term and is not from Nanos.)

Just over that number feel Canada is moving in the right direction."

I just did the math and I am a 8 hour drive from the nearest non-Liberal seat (Rimouski)

Mulcair is safe. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/lack-of-a-leadership-rival-boosts-mulcairs-odds-of-survival/article28117300/)

Uniting the Albertan right will have to be done the hard way, as was always the case. (http://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/braid-will-jason-kenney-ride-in-to-save-alberta-conservatism) Preferable IMO. Dunno where the idea of federal Tories joining the Progs came from.

I said from the start that whether Mulcair stays or goes will be left up to him, and I don't know if he's decided on that (actually I said originally that the genuine 'socialists' in the NDP would likely try to get him to step down.)

I think he deserves another shot because while Einstein said "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity" going through two elections with the same things is not 'over and over.'

Nik Nanos said something like "Thomas Mulcair is well respected by the public and they had no problems with the NDP platform, the problem for him was just that they preferred Justin Trudeau as the alternative to Harper."

Mulcair needs to improve his debate performances according to the experts (although I personally thought he was fine in the debates), but if the Liberals are unpopular after four years, Mulcair could run on the exact same platform and get a completely different result.

Until the NDP can get a Corbyn or a Sanders type to replace Mulair, they will have to hold their noses a keep him.

The problem for the NDP is that the Liberals have shifted to the left in their attempts to prevent the right-drifting NDP from winning. It worked, so the NDP will have to go to the left in their rhetoric. It won't necessarily win them an election, but it will get some much needed momentum behind them, enough to be able to play king maker in a minority government if we ever get proportional representation.

Hopefully for the NDP's sake, the Liberal's will do as they always do, and govern on the right (no indication of this yet), and so won't have to go too far to the left in the next campaign.

The NDP strategists seem to think that the Liberals can campaign on the left because the public believes they have (some) credibility on economics and finance, but that their own party lacks this credibility.  An NDP running on the left would probably result in them getting 10-15% of the vote, depending on how the Liberals have governed and how far to the left they go.

Of course, you're the polling expert, not me, so I could be wrong.

If they run a left wing populist campaign, they would get more than 15% of the vote. If Corbyn and Sanders can do it...

Of course, if they just run a boring old school NDP campaign, then yes, expect the same results as the in the 1990s.

Such a populist approach is untested in modern Canadian politics, so don't trust my polling expertise on this one. I'm just observing what's going on in the rest of the Anglosphere.

Corbyn and Sanders haven't faced a general election yet.  Also, they are running in mostly two party nations (though I think Corbyn could bring the Liberal Democrats back from the (near) dead.

I'm certainly going to hope the Liberals govern left, even if that means the NDP won't have a shot in 2019. They should always try to always stay measurably to the left of the liberals in any situation. Left wing populism, as Hatman said, will get better results than being Liberal lite.

Well I'd rather all the parties propose realistic solutions to what they regard as genuine societal problems from their ideological perspective.

The difference is that the NDP are languishing in 3rd place, while Corbyn and Sanders are leading or trying to be the nominee of major parties. The expectations are different. Michael Foote's campaign in 1983, was a total disaster, but I'm sure the NDP would be happy take 27% and Official Opposition today.

Being a left wing populist in the 1980s is a big difference than being a left wing populist in the 2010s.

Anyways, let's not forget that my point is that running a left wing populist campaign will not win the NDP the next election, it will just save them from irrelevancy. Running as "Liberal lite" will have to wait until the actual Liberals become unpopular again.

Tory leadership vote next spring. Bernier and Leitch are running, MacKay/Raitt/Clement likely. Many think Kenney won't run. (http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/john-ivison-conservative-leadership-contest-already-fractious)

Well, my vote is up for grabs assuming Kenney stays out.

McGregor has a slightly different take on Tory leadership, though as always I trust Ivison a hella lot more. (http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/tories-consider-kicking-off-leadership-race-next-month)

One PKP is bad enough. (http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/michael-den-tandt-why-fire-breathing-kevin-oleary-is-a-good-fit-for-conservative-leader)

Abacus: Outside Alberta, Trudeaumania continues despite a worsening economy.  (http://abacusdata.ca/how-do-we-feel-about-the-trudeau-government/)

Related to the NDP's woes, I note that Trudeau has a near 60% approval rating among 2015 NDP voters. That will have to change if they want to do well. OTOH Trudeau has a 15% approval rating among 2015 Conservative voters, which suggests the Tories are close to their floor.

One small advantage the NDP will have next time, is that they will be the only major party criticizing the government from the left. So long as the Tories were in power, they had to compete with the Liberals to voice certain kinds of criticism. Now it's more open, as it's not like the Tories are going to start complaining about "tax cuts for the rich". :P

Meet our new ambassadors to the US and UN. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeau-picks-close-allies-as-ambassadors-to-us-and-un/article28231669/)

Peter Stoffer has found a new job (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/veterans-legal-fund-1.3405286)

Kudos to him.
 (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2016/01/18/seamus-oregan-returning-to-work-after-seeking-treatment-for-an-alcohol-problem-3/#.VpzzG_krKUl)
Hmm. (http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/once-ensconced-in-stornoway-mulcair-now-living-out-of-ottawa-hotels)

NDP will drift into keeping Mulcair. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/01/18/mulcairs-next-job-is-proving-he-deserves-another-chance-tim-harper.html)

Trudeau will be busy in Davos (http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/john-ivison-trudeau-to-lean-on-heaviest-hitters-imaginable-in-attempt-to-rebrand-canadas-economy-at-davos), and steady as he goes on infrastructure. (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2016/01/18/liberal-cabinet-meets-amid-gloomy-economic-new-to-lay-out-plans-for-2016/#.Vp1sMTbSmP9)
5 day refugee pause in some cities due to a housing backlog. (http://globalnews.ca/news/2461465/5-day-moratorium-on-arrival-of-government-sponsored-syrian-refugees-set-to-begin-tuesday-iss/)
O'Regan interview. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/mp-seamus-o-regan-alcohol-treatment-1.3408277)

The NDP should buy a house somewhere in Ottawa for use of future leaders. Call it Douglas House or something.

Ottawa set to lift sanctions on Iran, Tories being hypocritical jerks yet again: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-could-lift-sanctions-against-iran-following-landmark-deal-by-us/article28233774/ (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-could-lift-sanctions-against-iran-following-landmark-deal-by-us/article28233774/)

Navdeep Bains hints that Iran is a potential market for Bombardier: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/minister-sees-iran-thaw-as-opportunity-for-canadian-aerospace-industry/article28253293/ (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/minister-sees-iran-thaw-as-opportunity-for-canadian-aerospace-industry/article28253293/)

Moodys downgrades Alberta credit rating: http://ipolitics.ca/2016/01/18/moodys-adjusts-outlook-for-alberta-to-negative-rating-still-triple-a/ (http://ipolitics.ca/2016/01/18/moodys-adjusts-outlook-for-alberta-to-negative-rating-still-triple-a/)

Conservatives in denial that they lost the election, Exhibit #756: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/rona-ambrose-economy-1.3408606 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/rona-ambrose-economy-1.3408606)

A quack was appointed to the Senate advisory board. (http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/the-gargoyle-senate-appointments-panelist-uses-discredited-pseudoscience-to-recover-past-lives-treat-phobias)

Elementary school shooting in SK, 5 dead, 2 wounded.

High school, in fact.

Even leaving out the people who believe in the literal word of the Bible for which there is zero evidence for, according to studies virtually every single person believes at least a few weird things.

Just because this woman is more open about her views does not necessarily make her any stranger than anybody else and should not be an automatic disqualification.

For instance, depending on the poll question, at the height of the '9/11 truther movement' a large number of Canadians believed in several of the conspiracy theories:

"A September 2008 Angus Reid poll showed that 39 percent of respondents either disagree or are unsure that al-Qaeda carried out the attacks. About a third of those surveyed believed the U.S. government allowed the attacks to happen and 16 percent believe the U.S. government made the attacks happen."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polls_about_9/11_conspiracy_theories#Canada

I can't find the poll again, but a large number of Canadians also believed that the World Trade Center was brought down by a 'controlled demolition' and not as a result of the planes crashing into the buildings and the subsequent fire.

If right wingers can be criticized for harbouring creationists, it is perfectly reasonable to pick on lefties for harbouring hippy dippy types.

Denis Coderre: First of all, you have to allow me a moment to laugh at a guy like Brian Jean, when he says he relies on science. These are probably the same people who think the Flintstones is a documentary.. (http://www.calgarysun.com/2016/01/22/denis-coderre-brian-jean-among-those-who-think-the-flintstones-is-a-documenary)

Since when did Coderre hire Warren Kinsella as an adviser?

Jean: I'm not going to take environmental lessons from a mayor that will release eight billion litres of raw sewage into the river right in front of his community (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-wildrose-leader-accuses-montreal-mayor-of-gutter-politics-1.3414815)

1.In any federal election there are always a fair number of Conservatives candidates with publicly stated religious views and I've never heard anybody say they shouldn't be allowed to run if some of those might be odd.

2.I never heard any demands on Stephen Harper to resign as Conservative leader when he signed a party fundraising letter (or more likely an automatic pen signed his name to it, but he's still responsible for it) that called Kyoto 'a socialist scheme.'

3.Most people refer to them as 'new agers' not 'hippy dippy types.'  I don't care for 'new age' thinking myself, but I tend to find that most people who hold these views are no more or less rational than anybody else on other things.  So, just because she has odd views in these areas does not automatically prove she is unable to choose people who would make capable senators as per Justin Trudeau's definition of 'capable.'

Also, unlike an M.P who vote on issues where their beliefs that the earth is 6,000 years old or something may influence their votes, I fail to see how this woman's 'new age' beliefs could effect her very limited role of helping to choose 'capable non partisan upstanding Canadians' as senators.

The new NDP M.P,  for the riding where this terrible incident occurred, Georgina Jolibois, was previously the mayor of the town where it occurred (La Loche.)  Hopefully she can provide some insight to the government.

You're missing the point and reading far too much into my comment Adam.

In other news Peter MacKay has taken a job with a Bay street law firm.

Iranian sanctions will be lifted. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news/politics/ottawa-confirms-plan-to-lift-sanctions-against-iran/article28399708/?cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globe)

DC: Hilarious thing is that Kinsella agrees with Jean, not Coderre.

PKP and Snyder have split again. Been intermittent for 15 years.

Labeaume (Quebec City's mayor) is neutral on Energy East, saying he is for pipelines in general, but saying than Transcanada is incompetent.

This is the position I've been posting on Twitter and in news stories. I told Michelle Rempel that she shouldn't be a cheerleader for a private corporation and got a typical juvenile response from her (the Captain Pickard holding his head in frustration picture.)

There was a major CBC expose in 2011 of how either the government or civil servants in the government had covered up evidence of poor practices at TransCanada Pipelines.

I'm not surprised that idiot Terry Glavin is a mindless proponent of Energy East, but I was surprised both Lawrence Martin and even Rick Mercer support the Energy East as if this is a public work project and not a project that will primarily benefit for-profit corporations.

Andew Coyne seemed to be unhappy the government position is to wait for the NEB process to unfold and wants the Liberals to prejudge their report.

I don't think TransCanada is incompetent as much as they put short term profits ahead of long term interests, both their own long term interests and societal long term interests.

I'd support Energy East if all the senior executives and directors at TransCanada were fired.

Justin's meeting Notley next week, and there will be an environmental First Ministers Conference in March.

Still think Mulcair survives. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/how-the-ndps-postelection-malaise-could-doom-mulcair/article28470793/)

Feds still studying the sharing economy. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/02/01/ottawa-examines-challenges-of-disruptive-expanding-sharing-economy.html)

Kuwaiti arms deal going ahead. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-pushes-military-deals-with-kuwait-despite-un-concerns/article28475526/)

New Alberta provincial poll from Mainstreet: (http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/albertas-ndp-falls-to-third/)

Decided voters:
WRP: 33%
PC: 31%
NDP: 27%
ALP: 5%
AP: 4%

Necromancy is in the air.

Law enforcement concerned about chaos over pot legalization. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-vow-to-legalize-pot-creating-chaos-police-say/article28641321/)

Citizenship Act overhaul, including language requirement elimination, inbound.
 (http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2016/02/08/mccallum-promises-radical-changes-to-citizenship-act/45180)

Agreed. (http://www.canada.com/news/michael+tandt+trudeau+could+with+little+less+sunshine/11703807/story.html)

What chances do the NDP have to get re-elected with these numbers?

Probably not great,  especially as their support is concentrated in the Edmonton region, but given that the next Alberta election isn't for a little more than three years, I'd say your question is a little premature.

^Pretty much that.  The poll still shows the NDP at nearly 50% in Edmonton, so they could still easily win 18-25 seats in the greater Edmonton areas, but beyond that, their prospects would be pretty bleak.   

Agreed with Hébert (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/02/13/hbert.html), Coyne (http://www.canada.com/news/national/andrew+coyne+bombardier+bailout+just+more+same/11716648/story.html) and Simpson. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/is-mulcair-prepared-for-perpetual-opposition/article28747088/)

Ottawa looking to ink a carbon pricing deal with the provinces. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-seeks-to-set-national-minimum-on-carbon-pricing/article28792641/)


TFW program being reviewed. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/temporary-foreign-workers-program-faces-federal-review/article28792323/)

GIS being upped. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-signals-increase-to-benefits-for-low-income-seniors/article28791239/)

Forum: (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/02/19/forum-research-poll-liberals-would-win-70-of-seats-in-election-today.html) 49/32/10. Unfortunately, I doubt we see Grit Inc. style results for anyone in the foreseeable future.

Not dangerous but interesting. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/02/20/trudeau-government-starting-to-live-dangerously-hbert.html)

Morneau will release updated numbers this week (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2016/02/21/finance-minister-to-spell-out-canadas-downgraded-economic-outlook-source/#.VssGS_krKUm), and Brison will table the estimates. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/treasury-board-estimates-budget-reform-1.3455511)

Wynne apologizing for Regulation 17 today. (http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/kathleen-wynne-apology-francophone-french-education-regulation-17-1.3457990)

Hébert on the budget. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/02/23/liberals-might-have-to-bluff-a-little-while-playing-shaky-fiscal-hand-hbert.html)

Alberta to get $250M. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-to-give-alberta-250-million-boost/article28846943/)

My prediction:  Mulcair gets 81% at leadership review.

Don Getty has died at 82.  (http://globalnews.ca/news/2542140/former-alberta-premier-don-getty-dies-at-82/?sf21580761=1)

Gary Burrill has been elected Nova Scotia NDP leader.  (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/ndp-leadership-nova-scotia-zann-burrill-wilson-1.3465722)Bit of a throwback pick since he's a hardline socialist from the religious left.

Continental environmental strategy incoming. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeau-obama-set-to-endorse-continental-strategy-on-climate-change/article28991505/)

Food for thought. (http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-a-method-in-trudeaus-pipeline-madness)

Forum-ON: (http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2470/brown-seen-as-best-premier-by-wide-margin-wynnes-approvals-plummet) 44/27/23. Wynne loathed at 67% disapproval.

Environmental holding pattern. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/premiers-climate-change-meeting-long-on-principles-short-on-specifics/article29040659/)

Believe Mulcair loses when seen. Hudak got 78% in '12. Ironically, Edmonton is where Clark lost his leadership... (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/03/04/analysis-mulcair-faces-uphill-battle-in-edmonton.html)

Yeah, the usual (and logical, IMO) pattern is wiping them out. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/history-isnt-on-the-side-of-a-pc-wildrose-party-merger/article29040098/)

Quebec's unemployment rate is lower than Alberta's for the first time in 30 years. Halifax is a solid 1.5% below Calgary. No schadenfreude for me though as my brother in law was just laid off there :(

Isn't Halifax a fairly wealthy city?

Yes. We certainly aren't as well off as the oil producing parts of the country, but its definitely easier to achieve a middle class lifestyle than in Toronto or Vancouver. Household incomes are comparable to Toronto or Vancouver, but you can buy a detached house 20 minutes from downtown for 250k.

Maybe we will see a flood of Albertans rushing to Quebec and Atlantic Canada to find work :P. Would be interesting to see the West becoming stagnant with a booming East.

I won't be happy until that putrid Brad Wall is forced to be nice to the East.

Very sobering Maclean's long read on NB. (http://www.macleans.ca/economy/can-anything-save-new-brunswick/)

Maybe I'll head out to the east coast, haha. Life in Toronto and Vancouver has made me feel pretty dejected about my future. I don't know if there's enough going on in Halifax for me to be perfectly happy, but... house prices in vancouver are ridiculous.

Ontario will be experimenting with a guaranteed minimum income. (http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/ontario-will-test-idea-of-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-to-ease-poverty-spending-on-social-programs) Feds might too.

That's awesome!

Would be ironic since another Trudeau rejected that idea when first mooted 40-odd years ago.

Hey, if Andrew Cuomo and Evan Bayh can piss on their fathers' legacies, I don't see why Justin couldn't improve on his.

Ironic because Justin is much more Chretien's ideological heir than his dad's. At any rate, a larger "kill the NDP" strategy, if this is a prelude to that, is something I'd be highly skeptical of.

As with the Ontario Liberals' pension reforms, the devil is in the details... I like the idea but I'm not confident that Wynne will execute it well.

Can anyone give me a quick summary of what Trudeau has actually done since become Prime Minister, and what his big proposals are?

Looks like Wynne's re-election strategy is well underway. She will pray to God (which she nominally believes in) that her plan to balance the budget by FY17/18 will run its course. She will implement measures such as this and the university tuition program to bolster her progressive credentials which were badly damaged by selling off Hydro. She will then repeat the 2007/11/14 re-election strategy of seizing on Tory stupidity (this time probably through their candidates rather than the leader) to retain the loyalties of centrist voters.

And presto (which, like everything else her government touched, costed way over budget), the OLP becomes the Natural Governing Party.

Good: feds easing path for international students' permanent residency. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-looks-to-ease-international-students-path-to-permanent-residency/article29242266/)

Stuff he's done
1) Cut taxes in the 45-90k bracket, raise taxes for people making over 200k

2) Inquiries into the high death and disappearance rates of aboriginal women

To come
3) Consolidating several child benefits into one program. Removing the universal element and making the whole thing income based.

4) Legalizing marijuana

Long term goals
5) Changing the electoral system from FPTP to IRV

6) Expanding the Canada Pension Plan

Other posters feel free to chime in.

The tax cut was supposed to pay itself by a tax increase in higher bracker but it turns out it will not be true and this promise will add to the deficit.

One big promise was to invest more in infrastructure.

Things being done:
Reinstate the mandatory long form census
Moratorium on eliminating home delivery of mail (reinstating or what happens in the future remains to be seen)
No toll to be put on the Champlain bridge linking Montreal to the south suburbs
End air strikes mission against ISIS

Thanks!

So nothing earth-shaking. I was wondering if there might be, since this was the first big change in Canada's politics in a while, and he seems like a young/charismatic/progressive leader. But Canada is too close to perfect that it doesn't need any fundamental reforms, it seems, at least compared to the USA :P

Has Bieber's war on FPTP sunk down to provinical level yet?

One big promise that will not be respected is running a "modest" budget deficit of up to $10 billion in the first two years of the mandate and I think a balanced budget in the fourth year. The deficit in the upcoming budget will be higher than that. People may not mind because there will be money for projects and programmes and investment instead of cuts and spending restraint.

The Parliament Budget Officer told La Presse according to the numbers from the Finance Department, the Conservatives have balanced the budget in 2015-2016. There is a surplus after the first 9 months of the fiscal year. 

http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economie/canada/201603/15/01-4960825-les-conservateurs-avaient-equilibre-le-budget.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=lapresseaffaires_LA5_nouvelles_98718_accueil_POS15 (http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economie/canada/201603/15/01-4960825-les-conservateurs-avaient-equilibre-le-budget.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=lapresseaffaires_LA5_nouvelles_98718_accueil_POS15)

One key message I remember hearing in the liberal ads is middle class parents would have more money in their pockets.

To follow the the completion of promises there is the Trudeau polimeter of Université Laval Political Science Dept.
https://www.poltext.org/en/polimeter (https://www.poltext.org/en/polimeter)

And the Trudeaumetre website
https://www.trudeaumetre.ca/ (https://www.trudeaumetre.ca/)

 

Not really, no. Actually things are worse than a few years ago when a few provinces put on (failed) electoral reform referendums.

I've answered an Ipsos poll about the future federal budget. I had to rank 15 priorities, give opinion on different size of deficit number and if I agree on different statements. I hope it was for a media and made public before the next budget.

Will the NDP send itself into a leadership contest ? Some socialist wing wants new leadership. There was also an open letter by 35 NDP members in Quebec saying they don't recognize their party, they want to rebuild the party on its founding values and the party should be more progressive, democratic and transparent. They don't ask for a new leader explicitly but the timing is strange. They could speak within the party at the convention. 40% of them are from NDG-Westmount riding and the vast majority have non- francophone names.

Niki Ashton wouldn't say if she will support Mulcair for leader. Is that because she is interested in the job?

I don't know if the NDP has some mechanism to change leader later but I think it's too soon. Maybe Mulcair will decide before the next election to leave leadership if he sees no improvement. Selecting a new leader should be done later to see what happens in a year or two. You could attract people outside of caucus. Right now probably not possible to choose someone outside caucus. Later you also know who will be the Conservative leader. You know what type of person, or from what region could lead the party to electoral gains.   

Provincial news: PLQ bigwigs and a PQ fonctionnaire arrested by UPAC.
 (http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/high-ranking-liberals-including-nathalie-normandeau-arrested-by-upac-reports)
OAS eligibility age will be reset to 65. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-economy-bloomberg-new-york-1.3495331)

Agreed w/Hebert as usual. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/03/17/cold-reality-awaits-new-democrats-rethinking-partys-future-hbert.html)

An Ottawan Mountie committed suicide. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/03/17/rcmp-member-takes-own-life-near-parliament-hill.html)

One of the most fiscally ridiculous and regressive actions of the Liberals to date. Younger seniors as a group are one of the wealthiest demographics in the country. Fixing a retirement system under strain in large part due to low birth rates by transferring funds from folks in their childbearing years is just silly.

The correct solution IMO (and I said this when Harper was in power as well) is to reduce the clawback threshold on OAS. I have clients with household incomes around $100k who still receive their full pension. Such folks do not need income top ups.

The Liberals are going to drive this country bankrupt in their attempt to out left the NDP.

Tiptoeing, but I agree with DC.

Somewhere Harper chuckles to himself. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/03/19/keep-unmuzzled-scientists-on-tight-leash-senior-civil-servants-warn-liberals.html)

Julian endorses Mulcair's leadership. (http://www.thetyee.ca/Opinion/2016/03/19/We-Need-Tom-Mulcair/)

For the record, I am divided about getting rid of Mulcair. On paper he should go, but who replaces him?

If I was in the NDP, I would vote to keep him.

Mulcair was hampered by the public's perceptions of the two progressive parties. Similar to how it took Nixon to go to China, it took the Liberals to take a step to the left. The NDP simply didn't have the same fiscal credibility to pull off what Trudeau did.

Panzergirl was in town today as part of an EP delegation, no one of importance met her (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201603/19/01-4962600-des-pequistes-rencontrent-marine-le-pen-peladeau-sen-dissocie.php). Some young PQ activists bragged about meeting her, which forced PKP to repudiate them. Her press flack did ask if Drainville is a Commie though. :P

It was done with Global. For the priorities, they report if they are in the top 3 of respondents.

40% spending more on health care
34% cuttin taxes
28% increasing taxes on wealthiest citizens
28% cutting the deficit
28% spending more to help middle class families

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7182 (http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7182)

For the size of deficit, 74% would support a balanced budget
55% would support a deficit of $10 billion (highest support in BC, lowest in Quebec),
26% would support $20 billion deficit
15% would support $30 billion
12% would support $40 billion

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7179 (http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7179)

And other questions on the government and economy such as 53% believe volatile economic conditions give the right to Liberals to break promises.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7176 (http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7176)

Jim Hillyer has died. (https://twitter.com/Justin_Ling/status/712646784531763202) RIP.

Very true, but it's very clear the NDP needs to tack left now if they want to differentiate themselves from the Liberals. Going to the centre is all well and good when the Liberals are in third, but there's no room there now. I doubt Mulcair can pull the party to the left, but who will?

My guess is Mulcair gets about a 60% approval and is forced to step down.

How much of a left wing tack do you think the NDP needs? You know I'm not a fan of the cling to the centre theory of electioneering, but there's a huge difference between differentiating the party from the Liberals and adopting the NDP Socialist Caucus platform.

I'm getting the impression, at least on Facebook, that NDP supporters are turning into the Canadian version of those GOPers who think that every defeat is caused by not being conservative enough, but that sort of thinking would be disastrous. Personally I think the NDP is in a no-win situation until the Trudeau government turns into the second coming of Paul Martin, or some Liberals get caught with their hand in the till.

Oh, here's an interesting graph outlining the difficult situation the provincial governments are in:

()

I don't think the Grits will stay way out on left field and squash the NDP that way. Justin's dad tried that in his first term and nearly lost.  But they can certainly keep them where they are now, IMO.

A lot of NDPers don't want to admit it, but they got extremely lucky in 2011.  It wasn't the centrist shift that resulted in the breakthrough or the tactical brilliance of Brad Lavigne or the "inevitable" displacement of the Liberals by a "proper" left-right polarization.  They had the perfect storm: a VERY unpopular Liberal leader, a political vacuum in Quebec, and Layton's personal appeal.  I think people voted NDP because they thought was Jack was a nice guy but didn't have a clue what was in the platform.

Mulcair is sounding really desperate now when he says he's a "democratic socialist", doesn't have a problem with deficits if spending is used to "help people" etc. 

The problem with Mulcair is he offers the worst of both worlds: neither principle or electability. 

As for the question "if not Mulcair then who?" - well the party doesn't have much of a purpose anymore if they're doomed without him.  I think a leadership race would be healthy for the NDP as it would kickstart a debate about the party's future direction.

I think the left-populist approach of Bernie Sanders, or Ed Broadbent-style social democracy (those two are pretty much identical ideologically) would work.  

It'll be interesting to see how Gary Burrill does in your home province.

PET also tacked left in 1980.  It worked wonders in Ontario where the NDP was held down to 5 seats, in spite of getting 22% of the vote.  However by then he was so hated in the West that the Liberals took only 2 seats in the West.

Committees are a bit chaotic ATM thanks to rookie Grits. (http://www.hilltimes.com/2016/03/28/its-been-quite-a-learning-curve-rookie-liberal-mps-want-more-training-on-house-committees-opposition-mps-say-its-time-to-step-up/55170)

Alberta's right will have to be unified the hard way. Hopefully Jean's up for that. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/alberta/alberta-conservatives-revive-debate-over-uniting-theright/article29394140/%3bjsessionid=zlr4W5ZY4rfmgJlc86QfpxwxLTDrSQGWnGlRZ87dCLpxp6q2lPp8!362198830/?ts=160328165233&ord=1)

100% agreed. (http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/jen-gerson-no-need-for-bombardier-bailout)

Labour remains behind Mulcair. (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2016/03/29/union-heads-pen-joint-statement-in-support-tom-mulcair-ahead-of-leadership-vote/#.VvqPLo-cHIV)

Forum-ON: (http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/03/29/just-20-of-ontario-voter-approve-of-job-wynne-is-doing-as-premier-poll.html) Wynne at 20/64 disapprove, Tories lead 40/30/24. Brown needs personal & policy definition lest it be done for him, as Hudak found out 5 years ago.

I'm not sure why that gentleman from Cardston-Taber-Warner feels so strongly about the issue.  No to belittle his views, of course, but even in 2015, the non-PC/WRP vote in that riding was only 22.7%.  I would argue that keeping the parties separate is better for rural Alberta, since the prospect of competition would prevent the residents from being taken for granted like they would be under a theoretical united party.

In all seriousness though, I have a hard time seeing the parties coming together anytime soon.  A strong majority of PC members that I know oppose the idea of a merger.

Jean Lapierre and members of his family were killed in a Magdalen Islands plane crash today. (http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/tva-former-mp-jean-lapierre-six-others-killed-in-quebec-plane-crash-1.2836751) RIP. :(

Trudeau in DC prepping for the next admin. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201603/30/01-4966055-justin-trudeau-prepare-lapres-obama.php) Also has a standing invitation to Havana.
 (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201603/30/01-4965904-justin-trudeau-invite-a-cuba.php)

EKOS: (http://ipolitics.ca/2016/03/31/ekos-ndp-slips-to-lowest-level-since-2003-as-mulcair-leadership-review-looms/) 42.3/31.7/11.7.

Good. (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/04/02/spy-helping-spy-csis-cse-planning-more-collaboration.html)

LMAO. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/the-broken-promise-of-kathleen-wynne/article29502805/)

Wow, that's brutal. It reminds me of the global trend in the left - people caring more about being hip and cool and random SJW issues (MOAR REFUGEES!!!) than actual progressive economic policy (say what you must, but the NDP wouldn't have had pulled a 30b deficit out of nowhere).

On the other hand, I have family who work in NDP politics, so I should make fun of them the next time we meet up.

Hassan Yusuff is anti-Mulcair and thinks he'll flunk the review. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news/politics/canadian-labour-congress-head-says-ndp-needs-new-leader/article29522865/?cmpid=rss1)

I think the biggest problem with the Dump Mulcair movement is the lack of a strong prospective leader waiting in the wings. I mean, there is Barry Weisleder from the Socialist Caucus... but...

China policy review underway. (http://www.canada.com/business/where+trudeau+government+heading+china/11829330/story.html)

Ottawa looks to ink an infrastructure deal with the provinces. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-looks-to-reach-deal-with-provinces-on-infrastructure-spending/article29535203/)

PC MPP Jack MacLaren is a misogynist douche (NSFW). (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/04/06/ontario-mpps-crude-humour-offends-falls-flat-at-fundraiser.html)

MacLaren being a nutjob is not a new thing. I remember hearing a story from my university days of a professor railing on about him, only to find out that MacLaren's son was in the class!

The possible names I've read are Nathan Cullen, Megan Leslie, Niki Ashton.

If Mulcair gets 60%, which could be seen as a slap in the face, will he stay as MP or start looking for another job and resign in the short term and let the NDP try to hold the riiding of Outremont.

If I were him, seeing the number of ex-caucus members or current not supporting me, I would exit the party as quickly as possible if I had another interesting job opportunity.

If Mulcair gets 60 he would quit. But he'll get 70+ and stay.

I have no idea what Mulcair would actually do, but if I was in that situation I would say f[inks] you, resign my seat and let the Liberals take my riding to embarass whoever put the knives in my back. Then again I have a tendency to hold grudges :P

Jacques Demers had a stroke last night and is hospitalized in stable condition. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jacques-demers-stroke-1.3524608)

NDP youth is anti-Mulcair.  (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-youth-wing-expected-to-seek-new-leadership/article29548290/)

Just before  the NPD convention Forum has a poll on Mulcair leadership. In the general population, 32% agree Mulcair should step down, 36% disagree. Only Quebec and Ontario have more disagree than agree (in Quebec 50% disagree).

Among those voting NDP, 22% agree with step down while 56% disagree.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2490/just-one-third-of-canadians-think-he-should-stay/ (http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2490/just-one-third-of-canadians-think-he-should-stay/)

It will be interesting to see what the NDP does with the principles of the Leap manifesto. In opposition you can be more against oil and pipeline than in a general election in which your opponents will attack you for hurting the economy and lose potential votes.

Parties adopt policies but they also choose what they put in the election come election. The manifesto seems to question capitalism. The party tried to be seen as a potential responsible government. If they become too radical they will lose that. Maybe they will prefer ideals over electability. I hope they don't think the more left they go the more popular they will be.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tom-mulcair-oil-ground-manifesto-1.3523849 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tom-mulcair-oil-ground-manifesto-1.3523849)

You can watch the NDP convention here: http://www.cpac.ca/en/ndp-convention/

The NDP does need to tack left to win both to keep their base turning out and win back promiscuous progressives. The question is by how much. If they go too far they risk alienating the centre leftists they need to recover strongly.

To add to Hatman's point about Mulcair:

The electoral map in Quebec is quite precarious. The NDP won a mere 6 seats by  >5% and one of those was Mulcair's. If the new NDP leader does not have any regional appeal the NDP could be reduced to a couple popular MPs and progressive enclaves due to a marginal favourite son effect wearing off.

Details leaking out about the new assisted suicide law. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/assisted-dying-law-will-come-with-strict-limits-sources-say/article29564467/)

The bill will apparently take a fairly conservative approach and avoid some of the more controversial suggestions out there such as allowing assisted suicide for minors, or requiring physicians to euthanize despite conscience concerns.

Frankly, this is a lot better than I was expecting.

I finally got around to reading the "leap manifesto". It's actually less radical than I expected from media depictions: higher, more progressive taxes, no new pipelines, public transit, indigenous rights, etc. But it's not really anti-capitalist, at least in its specific proposals.

But I guess it fits a certain narrative about the NDP to have a bunch of radical leftists fighting the leadership.

It's Canada, all media do what the Liberal spinroom tells them to say.

Maybe he'd become a Conservative, he already tried being a Liberal.

The Review is tomorrow, right?

That's quite unfair, as there is no provincial NDP in Quebec.

Potential steel protectionism inbound. (http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-trudeau-takes-protectionist-tone-as-pressure-grows-for-buy-canadian-program)

Conrad Black gives Justin a positive review so far.
 (http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/conrad-black-six-months-of-the-trudeau-government-so-far-so-good)

Forum: (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/04/09/trudeau-liberals-continue-to-soar-high-poll-shows.html) 51/28/12.

Just like in the US, except replace Liberal with Clinton :P


Tomorrow (Sunday) morning. Or afternoon I guess, given the time change.

I haven't been paying much attention to Canadian politics much since the elections. Why is Mulcair drawing so much hate from the NDP base? Is it because of the election results and him shifting the party rightward?

Not just that. His concession speech on election night pretended as if the party wasn't thrashed. Then he seemed to cocoon himself around his handlers, only making weak progressive noises (like denouncing Trudeau for not explicitly denouncing Donald Trump ::)) when he realized he truly had a fight on his hands. Who wouldn't be angry in such circumstances?

I'm wondering if he was ever fully accepted, not having a long NDP pedigree. A good portion of the party (even Broadbent) didn't want him during the leadership race and he represents a "reasonable left" rather than more "radical left".

Alberta Premier Notley pleaded for support for oil and pipeline to help Alberta. Maybe the Alberta delegates should think of voting for Mulcair to stay because if the party choose a new leader with a sharp left discourse, that usually means anti-oil / pro-environment.

I saw a convention delegate count by province (this excludes union delegates who are not representeing provinces)

Ontario 433
Alberta 344
BC 244
Québec 156
Saskatchewan 114
Others 96

I have watched some convention activity on tv and I'm not used to people refering to others as brother or sister. It was a bit weird.

The large Alberta delegation may just help Mulcair. Though, they many could be hippies from Strathcona, so who knows...


That's leftist politics for you :D

There are a lot of weird things going on at NDP conventions.

Yes, he was a member of the Quebec Liberal Party.

Which means he really could give being a Tory a shot.

LMAO. I've always seen PLQ as centre-left, and I'll agree to disagree with Max there. Tom Mulcair joined the NDP in 1974.

The PLQ is whatever you want it to be.

See, I can't tell if this is a joke or not because this is probably their actual M.O.

Mulcair was on the left of the PLQ, but it is generally a centre to centre right party (or has been since the 1990s). People on the left in Quebec tend to vote PQ or QS unless they are federalists. Mulcair represented a fairly federalist riding when he was an MNA.

QP panel and Althia Raj seem rather down on Mulcair's prospects, though I'll only believe he flunks if seen. Last time I saw a leadership review go sour was Landry in '05.

Motion to examine Leap for the next convention has been adopted.

Of course he is going to fail. Will get somewhere in the 60s. Willing to change my opinion after speech though.

I watched some of the debate but didn't see the vote/ result how split it was. The Alberta NDP must be disappointed and angre. They advocated it will hurt them.

Mulcair had to face unhappiness from some progressives and now the Alberta section might feel discouraged by the Leap vote just before the leadership vote and don't have motivation to go vote to keep the leader.

The brouhaha over the leap manifesto is overrated. Nobody will be talking about it next election.

Speech wasn't that convincing. It may have swayed a few people, but I suspect he still gets less than 70%.

Results for the NDP Convention leadership vote expected by 12

Pacific time?

Yes, Results are apparently ready now

52% vote in favor of a leadership review at the NDP Convention

Wow... I knew he'd be forced out, but he couldn't even win a majority? Huge shocker.

Idiot party.

In theory, Mulcair could run in the Leadership election, right?

Yeah. But the message is clear.

^True.

What are some good political websites, by the way? CBC is really low key in their coverage.

Well, I can't really blame them, there is a problem in the party, but it wasn't the leader.

It's rather his advisors and the high-level employees of the party, which were severely disconnected from the reality during the campaign. Mulcair is a victim of their cluelessness and bad advice.

Good. It's time the NDP returns to its progressive roots.

It's a shame. I really like Mulcair and I think he could have been a decent prime minister. The reality is, though, that he basically has no advantages when stacked up against Justin Trudeau. In four years, JT will have enough street cred that knocks against his lack of experience or naivety won't matter... which means Mulcair's commanding presence would be moot. And he does not look hip or radical or in touch with the new progressive left at all. So it's a good choice to go with a fresh face.

How's Megan Lelsie's French?

The NDP has a lot of problems. Hopefully this will fix some of them, but I wouldn't count on it.

We're probably going to get a useless and incompetent leader who can't debate or talk about public policy like an adult. I'm betting on Nikki Ashton.

Her policies aren't horrible, but she is one of the most annoying voices of the leftist movement in the NDP.

Nathan Cullen would be a good pick, but he probably would be seen as too similar to Mulcair.

Yeah, my worry about all of this is who will replace Mulcair. Ashton could be a disaster. Doubt she would win though.

Cullen, Ashton, Angus possible. Boulerice not this cycle, but he should be kept as Quebec lieutenant.

I found this news:

Looks like Mulcair was in a no win situation with the Leap manifesto. Alberta angry he didn't shut it down. Those who find him not enough left or accuse the party of not listening to grassroots were already unhappy. Imagine if party leadership was seen as trying to obstruct debating the resolution.

I don't understand what the Alberta delegates get by a change in leadership (besides an expression of their frustration). It's not like the next leader will be pro oil sands.

Well, it's not my New Democratic Party of 2011 anymore. That was peak NDP and now we're back to full on "shoot self in the foot for the sake of it" mode. At least Horvath isn't horrible, I'll continue to support her and the provincial party, but at least I won't have to live under Premier Brown.

I hardly consider peak NDP being at the point when the Liberals are to the left of you.

View from Alberta: Notley's been betrayed (http://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/graham-thomson-after-a-warm-embrace-ndp-delegates-stab-rachel-notley-in-the-back) and should UDI from the federal party. (http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/braid-notley-needs-to-divorce-the-federal-ndp)

Interview with Don Davies and Matt Dubé. (http://globalnews.ca/news/2630063/ndp-mps-react-to-vote-ousting-tom-mulcair-as-party-leader/)

Cool, but living under an NDP opposition was the only good thing about a Conservative majority at the time, and they were a damn good opposition under competent leadership. I don't give a damn about some poor stupid delegates thinking that the party doesn't seem to be left-wing enough for them. They've only put another obstacle in the NDP's long road out of obscurity.

I'm pretty sure the issue of all the petro-delegates of Alberta wasn't that. They want yet naother petro-party.

Being a rhetorical carbon copy of the Liberals is a sure fire way to obscurity though. It's unfortunate, but the Libs have triangulated, and the NDP needs to distance themselves. It's not going to get them power, but it will save them from being wiped out.

Cam Broten resigns. (https://twitter.com/davidbaxter_/status/719579510916513794)

That's the thing. If Liberals and NDP are seen as being at the same place, Liberals win, since their machine is much better than ours.

Justin is gonna support Kinder Morgan expansion and Energy East. (http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-trudeau-convinced-that-pipeline-strategy-must-be-top-priority)

The NDP wasn't a carbon copy of the Liberals. They were much more fiscally responsible, well-versed in policy, and serious about governing. Which is why Trudeau won.

Formee interim NS NDP leader Maureen MacDonald has resigned her seat.

Her riding is quite NDP friendly, but the Liberals are still polling well above their 2013 result, and MacDonald was quite popular personally. Liberals may win the by-election, but I still give the NDP the edge.

Those differences were glossed over by most voters though.

The NDP still managed to sort-of-survive. If anything, I suspect Trudeau's unseriousness and moral preening is what propelled him to victory among the Laurentian elites and the Yuppie "left".

A shameless plug to my prediction all the way back on October 1...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=216858.900

If anything, you understated how badly the NDP was going to get wrecked. :P

Harper always wanted a two-party system in Canada. He got it. Except the other party isn't the NDP.

In the sense that the Tories can't nominate another Harper, that seems about correct. The old coalition between a solid West and a solid Ontario doesn't really seem plausible anymore to me. A mathematical Tory majority seems hard without Quebec.

Christy Clark is also moving towards yes on Trans Mountain. (http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-signs-that-b-c-premier-is-moving-to-yes-on-pipeline)

I wonder whether the Tory majority of 2011 and especially its Ontario results was really just down to the Liberals having a spectacularly bad leader.

Anyway, what is the story wrt weed and the voting system? I haven't been paying attention to Canada recently.

This was very much part of it, yes. Maybe even the biggest part.


Still in the works as far as I know.

Hopefully Brown refuses to sign this asshole's nomination papers. (http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/reevely-jack-maclaren-on-the-bubble-with-tories-after-latest-gaffe) Problem solved.

PC can't afford to upset the Ontario Landowners Association. They are the reason John Tory lost his by-election and they are quite powerful in rural Eastern Ontario.

An article in Le Journal de Montréal asking if it's the end of the NDP in Québec.

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2016/04/12/vers-la-fin-du-npd-au-quebec (http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2016/04/12/vers-la-fin-du-npd-au-quebec)

After kicking out Mulcair two political scientists are pessimistic. Think support for NDP will drop. The party has no deep roots. In the province it was the party of two men: Layotn and Mulcair. Voters vote for the leader. If the next leader is not from Quebec, it doesn't look good. Could be wiped off the map. Their support is fragile and the Trudeau brand is strong.

Another is less pessimistic. Says the party has developped an organization. It will depend on the next leadership race, if there are candidates from Quebec, will the party question it's openess to Quebec. NDP will need to make Quebec a priority if they want to take power or become a strong opposition.     

Harper wasn't from Quebec and he won seats in Quebec. The NDP needs to focus on holding on to the more left wing ridings, like Rosemont and Laurier-Ste. Marie, in the same way the Tories are strong in the Chaudiere-Appalaches.

He did speak French though, even if it wasn't the best.

No, but it's not surprising a Péladeau newspaper asks the question.

Assisted suicide law being introduced today. (http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/new-assisted-suicide-law-will-be-limited-to-canadians-to-prevent-suicide-tourism)

Ben Harper has started weighing in on public policy. (http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/harper-and-vera-fiscal-malpractice-history-shows-this-is-no-time-to-be-racking-up-deficits)

Supreme Court accepts to hear the case about voting rights of Canadians living abroad.

Stay classy, Conservatives... (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/04/13/harjit-sajjan-pierre-paul-hus-cheryl-gallant-eyeroll_n_9684734.html)

It's Cheryl Gallant. Classy and her don't belong in the same sentence.

Justin on arms deal: contract must be honoured.
 (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2016/04/14/as-amnesty-warns-about-saudi-arms-sale-trudeau-says-deal-a-matter-of-principle/#.VxAZevkrKUm)

Ottawa Citizen found more Maclaren recordings. (http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/david-reevely-relased-tapes-of-ontario-mpp-jack-maclaren-reveal-his-profanity-filled-past)

YUGE deficit in AB. (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2016/04/14/alberta-braces-for-10b-in-red-ink-as-finance-minister-ceci-unveils-budget-2/#.VxAZsfkrKUm)

Interesting BC housing debate. (http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/colby-cosh-great-leap-a-little-war-of-words-on-the-west-coast)

Because of a burnout, the new Quebec Culture minister, Luc Fortin, go on a leave for a few weeks. Replaced by his predecessor Hélène David, also Higher Education minister (all those moves were caused by the sick leave of Pierre Moreau).

Due to illness and scandals, the government lost 3 ministers since February.

Electoral reform has finally appeared on the agenda in Parliament. Maryam Monsef has laid out eight principles which she wants to use to guide the process. Among them are that the new electoral system shouldn't be more complex, and that the local relationship between the MP and the constituent must be maintained.

Seemingly this rules out party list PR. MMP becomes iffy.

On that note, assuming we receive some form of PR (STV or regional open lists), things will change.

The Liberals must learn the meaning of compromise as it's unlikely to retain its majority. It won't form a coalition with the NDP, or any coalition at all. Borgen becomes mandatory viewing at Langevin Block.

The NDP's leftward lurch last weekend is partly gambling on the introduction of reform. If it hovers at 10-15% support, it's still guaranteed a respectable 35-50 seats. If reform fails, then the NDP will have trouble maintaining official party status.

The Conservatives *should* delay the leadership convention until well after the new system is known. But whether the new system is ranked ballots or PR, they will go nowhere with another Harper-like leader.

The Greens will easily reach official status under PR. It might even win 25 seats if the perfect storm arises. Elizabeth May could well decide to retire after the 2019 election. They will rebuff any Liberal flirting after the 2019 vote.

As long as the Bloc retains 15% of the vote in Quebec, it's guaranteed official status. Perversely this incentivizes it to appeal to the pur et dur segment. Maybe it even becomes a European-style right-wing populist party on the lines of the Front Nationale.

The Conservatives must also watch their backs. PR would allow the emergence of a party to their right, especially if the new leader is unable to fire up the base. Even if the Christian Heritage Party elects only its leader, this grants far greater visibility.

If the NDP is unable to unite after its current soul-searching, there's room for a party to its left. Maybe Quebec Solidaire going federal? Lefties looooove to schism, after all.

No Libertarians will get elected. Not a single Libertarian has been elected to any national parliament anywhere in the world.

Err, Costa Rica, Australia, Denmark, Slovakia...

Great article from the Edmonton Journal's Paula Simons on Alberta's female suffrage centenary. (http://edmontonjournal.com/news/insight/paula-simons-alberta-suffrage-crusaders-unlikely-revolutionaries-on-this-centennial-we-should-celebrate-their-courage-and-their-cunning)

The Liberals have absolutely no reason to back electoral reform right now.

However, I think Parallel Voting/Mixed Member Majoritarian would be a great system. It's a good compromise and works well.

It is strange that the future is so often seen as the present projected forwards, when surely our memories ought to tell us that this is absurd.

The past decade gives the Liberals ample reason to back electoral reform: what proportional representation (for instance) would mean above all else would be a degree of protection from the volatile nature of the Canadian electorate. As such over the long run it is their best hope of returning to their traditional status as a semi-permanent party of power...

Regarding electoral reform, has there been any discussion of implementing the AV/IRV system in Canada? (Australian style)

I presume the Conservatives would be dead set against this, for obvious reasons when looking at the  second choice preferencea of the voters.

Wouldn't single-member-district IRV be the best system for the Liberals? It would allow them to reap Conservative votes to challenge NDP members and NDP votes to challenge Conservatives. It wouldn't by any means be a permanent Liberal majority, but it does seem like the Liberals would be in a significantly better spot than they're in now.

I personally think that's what they want.

IRV would hit Bloc worst, I assume?

Trudeau stated he personally prefers IRV, but that he will respect the parliamentary committee however it decides.

At last weekend's NDP conference, delegates spoke strongly for PR instead of IRV, and pointed out that the latter is a transparent plot to turn Canada into a Japan-style one party state.

I think so, but there hasn't been any Quebec 2nd choice polls released to confirm as far as I know. It's possible that there are some scenarios where they could benefit (soft nationalists disliking Liberals, anti-Muslim sentiment, ABC etc.)

Classical liberal parties, but not *Libertarian* parties. There would be room for such a party under PR, but it will have to work hard to distinguish from the Liberal Party.

Brown finally demotes and suspends MacLaren.  (http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/04/18/pc-leader-demotes-mpp-over-sexist-joke.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

Short term yes, longer term... hmm... you need to be able to guarantee that you'll be at least second in the overwhelming majority of seats for the system to do you any good, else you get ratfycked as badly as by FPTP second prefs or no.

Deja vu all over again: BMD under consideration. Believe acceptance if seen, and given last time count me skeptical. Politics would be easy though, if Justin doesn't mind pissing off the soft left. (http://ipolitics.ca/2016/04/18/going-ballistic-is-canada-finally-ready-for-a-missile-shield/)

Such a thing exists? Sounds like a 19th century throwback.

Rempel on parliamentary sexism. (http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/michelle-rempel-confront-your-sexism)
No kidding. (http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/jen-gerson-trudeau-has-a-talent-for-performance)

Yeah, I like how all the sexist things that used to be said about women and were thankfully addressed decades ago are given a pass when used to attack a man.

The funny thing is that it only came into existence in 2006

Pot will be legalized next year. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/philpott-un-marijuana-legislation-legalize-1.3544554)

Harper will co-author a history book. (https://twitter.com/LMartinOttawa/status/722806404554162176)

Mike Duffy cleared on all 31 charges
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mike-duffy-trial-live-blog-63-1.3545326 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mike-duffy-trial-live-blog-63-1.3545326)

More ridiculous propaganda about the 1812 war, I presume.

Maybe Harper wants to maintain a public profile because he sees himself pulling off another Diefenbaker or Trudeau Sr.

What public profile? As a few media members have pointed out, the guy has been a ghost. Besides, Harper has already written a book about historical hockey (https://www.amazon.ca/Great-Game-Forgotten-Professional-Hockey/dp/1476716536), so I'd surmise he just likes writing books.

He's turning into a parody of an American liberal's dream leader.

If Canada was warmer than the US instead of colder I would probably be looking into dual citizenship :P

It's called a coat.

I'm talking about sunshine and being able to sunbathe on a hammock in your backyard and never deal with shoveling snow or driving in snow

*is from New England

You know, it does get hot here too.

As for the snow, yeah, you live in New England. It's not much worse in Canada. Plus, we have Vancouver.

I'm seriously thinking of moving to Florida for the weather :) It just has sucky politics

The PQ had to squash their splinter parties 9-10 years ago. Too late now.  (http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/469019/convergence-souverainiste-le-pq-ouvre-vraiment-les-bras)

Food for thought (http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/braid-notley-pitches-pipeline-approvals-to-full-federal-cabinet) on energy policy. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-25/enbridge-s-gateway-rises-from-dead-as-trudeau-wavers-on-tankers)

The least Trudeau could do, if he is so intent on acting like an American progressive's dream leader, is advance high speed rail in the Quebec-Windsor corridor. That is one thing of which I would highly approve.

It will not be high speed. Via Rail is proposing a high frequency train. Slower, less costly and with some stops. They would use dedicated tracks for passengers trains and it would be electric hybrid.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/via-rail-quebec-ontario-1.3537019 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/via-rail-quebec-ontario-1.3537019)

There could be 15 daily departures from Quebec City to Montreal instead of 5 at the moment. It would take 2 hours 10 minutes. It would run north of the St. Lawrence with a stop in Trois-Rivières.

Montreal-Toronto would take 3 hours 45 minutes (4 hours 30 now)
Ottawa-Toronto in 2 hours 30 min.
Montreal-Ottawa 1 hour 20 min.

And since it's the new popular thing, pension funds would be involved in financing this infrastructure project.

That is unfortunate. The corridor is far less built up with sprawl than the Northeast Corridor, which should mean it'd be possible to build a sufficienly straight right of way for relatively little cost. Canada even already has a manufacturer of high speed trains!

VIA's position on full-fat HSR is that it would cost 2.5-3 x as much as their 110 mph proposal, while only attracting 1.4 x more ridership. 

It's worth noting that the existing diesel-powered, 90-95 mph tops Montreal-Toronto expresses run faster average speeds than any Amtrak route save New York - Washington Acela Express trains. The problems are that there's not enough track capacity to do that frequently and reliably, and that it takes just somewhat too long to be practically competitive over the distance.  The old Turbos ran the route in just under four hours. 

Post modernization, Montreal-Toronto trains would be the fastest average speed trains in the Western Hemisphere without breaking 110

So the Libs in Newfoundland are planning to shut down half of the province's libraries and are putting a tax on books. Lord tunderin' jesus b'y.

$7.5B surplus as the FY ends. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-had-75-billion-surplus-heading-into-final-month-of-fiscal-year/article29797547/)

The Newfoundland government was relying on oil roughly to the same extent as Alberta was, but without Alberta's strong starting position. The budget was about as nasty as required and had both cuts and tax hikes, but I don't know what they are going to do without another oil boom. Newfoundland's fiscal and demographic position is awful even by Atlantic Canadian standards. :(

Anyways, the result of all this is the first good news poll for the NDP in a long time. (https://ca.news.yahoo.com/n-l-liberals-slide-post-105500968.html) Brackets indicate change from last election.

Lib: 37% (-20)
NDP: 32% (+20)
PC: 30% (nc)

Oh, there's a few rumours going around that Stephen McNeil is going to call a snap election this spring. Nova Scotia loves to speculate on this topic with every premier because John Buchanan won back to back re-elections off of snap elections in the 1980's. I personally doubt McNeil calls an election.

Jean Rousseau, ex-NDP MP for Compton-Stanstead is joining the Green Party. He thinks the environment should be the top priority.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/regions/estrie/2016/04/29/005-rousseau-vert-transition-estrie.shtml (http://ici.radio-canada.ca/regions/estrie/2016/04/29/005-rousseau-vert-transition-estrie.shtml)

Since when does implementing sensible policy make one a parody? 

PKP is retiring from politics for family reasons, namely his ugly separation. First permanent oppo leader never to contest a GE.

Too bad. He would have made for an interesting election.

Leadership candidates?

Cloutier, Hivon, Lisée, Aussant, Drainville.  (https://twitter.com/JuDufresne_RC/status/727213378578583557) If I were them I'd go for Cloutier or Hivon. (http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2016/05/02/5-successeurs-potentiels-a-pkp) Young, likable, talented, no GE baggage. Structural and intraparty will be tough, needless to say.

Q1 fundraising numbers are in:  (http://ottawacitizen.com/storyline/kady-tories-back-on-top-latest-party-fundraising-reports-show?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)$5.5M/$4.4M/$1.4M.

Calling elections 2 1/2 years after the last election never ends well for the government.

Former NDP MP Ian Deans (and ex-husband of Ottawa city councillor Diane Deans) has died. RIP.

Cool QP game from the National Post. (http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/play-question-blaster-the-ultimate-parliamentary-combat-simulator)

Fort Mac is being evacuated due to wildfires. (http://www.edmontonsun.com/2016/05/03/mandatory-evacuation-notices-issued-for-fort-mcmurray)

Obama will address Parliament at the end of June. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeua-three-amigos-summit-1.3565189)

Well this is shocking to say the least.

Has any American or Canadian city this large been completely evacuated since New Orleans during Katrina?

A lot of people are driving all the way to Edmonton rather than stay at nearby campgrounds.

Sadly, it was thr right call to do, as the city is currently burning. Beacon Hill is 80% destroyed, some other neighbourhoods are quite devasted, too.

Brian Jean, the Wildrose Party leader, is among the people whose house burnt.

Alberta has requested federal assistance, 48 hours till the Army and Air Force arrive. (https://twitter.com/CBCEdmonton/status/727716867285078016)

Wynne says 2 of her MPPs were linked to sexual harassment. (https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/05/03/two-liberal-mpps-linked-to-sexual-harassment-wynne-admits.html)

Forum-ON: (https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/05/04/kathleen-wynne-trails-patrick-brown-in-approval-ratings-forum-poll-shows.html) 39/34.

Don't post Ontario polls unless you're going to report the NDP as well! (most of us are NDPers here...)

Full #s:

PC: 39 (-1)
OLP: 34 (+4)
NDP: 21 (-3)
GPO: 5 (n/c)

Didn't see it in the article. :P

Yeah, I know (shame on them), but Forum had the crosstabs on their site.

Government will match funds for Red Cross Fort Mac donations.
 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/fort-mcmurray-federal-response-red-cross-1.3567828)
Braid on Notley's first year. (http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/braid-notley-sails-into-year-two-on-a-sea-of-trouble)

Year out from another rock 'em, sock 'em BC campaign. (http://www.theprovince.com/news/solberg+leech+will+year+until+ugliest+ever+election/11902430/story.html)

Feds set to introduce new border regulations. (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2016/05/08/feds-set-to-introduce-bill-on-the-canada-u-s-border-2/#.Vy-2YIQrKUl)

Alberta PCs held their first AGM since the 2015 election yesterday. (http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/braid-from-the-fire-a-glimpse-of-the-pcs-as-they-used-to-be)  78% voted in favour of holding an election to find a permanent leader.  Also of note, the party will be returning to the delegated convention style of leadership election.

Tories pull support for the RCMP unionization bill. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/rcmp-union-bill-conservatives-1.3572872)

Tories tightening rules for incumbent nomination challenges. (http://www.hilltimes.com/2016/05/09/proposed-rules-could-help-conservative-incumbent-mps-avoid-nomination-challenges/61196?monte-wente090929)

Trudeau: foreign aid target too ambitious. (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/05/10/justin-trudeau-un-goal-to-boost-spending-on-aid-too-ambitious-for-canada-right-now.html)

Turns out Albertan parties can't legally merge in the usual sense. So Jean has to wipe out the Progs electorally. (http://www.canada.com/news/national/national+newswatch+gerson+another+alberta+conservative+party+will+lead+civil+with/11907469/story.html)

There's no reason why Alberta shouldn't have two right wing parties. No need to go back to decades of one party rule.

Speaking of Alberta, considering Notley has done a super job handling the Fort Mac fire, I wonder if this might just save the NDP in the province.

Trudeau just announced he'll visit Fort Mac on Friday.

BC-Insights West: (http://www.insightswest.com/news/concerns-over-housing-and-poverty-intensify-in-british-columbia/) 40/34/14/10. Almost no change since November.

Ivison: why no extra indigenous PSE funding? (http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-why-arent-the-liberals-putting-any-funds-into-post-secondary-indigenous-education)

Delacourt: Trudeau should start taking risks, including raising the GST back to 7%.
 (http://ipolitics.ca/2016/05/10/trudeaus-got-political-capital-to-burn-time-to-start-taking-risks/)

The government is putting forward the motion to strike the special committee on electoral reform today. The committee will have 10 members, 6 Libs, 3 Cons and 1 NDP, plus one Bloc and one Green (Elizabeth May) will sit on the committee but won't be able to vote.

Of course, the Liberals having a majority on the committee is highly ironic.  I doubt they will try to push something through unilaterally though.

In addition to electoral reform, they will also be discussing online voting (what a recipe for disaster that would be) and mandatory voting. 

I know the Liberals will be leaning towards AV, though I really hope not. One electoral reform is done everyone is likely to pat themselves on the back and call it a day for many years.

PMO trying to lighten Mme Grégoire-Trudeau's workload. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/pmo-looking-at-ways-to-ease-sophie-gregoire-trudeaus-workload/article29986113/)

I don't believe any spouses of the PM have had to juggle as much as she has since, well, the elder Trudeau.

Mila Mulroney did a lot, as did Aline Chrétien. Margaret Trudeau wasn't a huge fan of officialdom, to put it mildly. Mulroney and Chrétien were deeply involved in politics - their husbands' closest advisors - and behind the scenes, played a policy role too.

If the Liberals were truly Machiavellian, they should go with true PR and not AV/IRV. PR would encourage the other two national parties to fragment into niche parties, leaving the Liberals as the only national, big-tent brokerage party. AV/IRV OTOH, still strongly discourages the creation of new parties.

AB-Insights West: (http://www.calgarysun.com/2016/05/12/wildrose-leads-in-latest-opinion-poll) 35/27/22.

Partisan advertising being curbed. (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2016/05/12/federal-liberals-make-interim-move-to-curb-partisan-government-advertising-3/#.VzSgt4QrKUl)

Staff hiring process under scrutiny. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberal-hiring-process-under-scrutiny-after-staffers-tax-troubles-are-revealed/article29988133/)

Before his defeat, Harper had been hatching a provincial wing of the federal party. (http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-ivison-stephen-harper-had-plan-to-unite-albertas-right-as-conservative-party) Plan isn't quite dead, since the federal party is giving Wildrose and the Progs 2 years to find a solution. If not, they'll move in.

If we get PR, I'd very much like the threshold to be low, say 1-2%. It'd be interesting to see some of the more active fringe parties (Socons, Commies, Libertarians) win seats.

Well, yeah this isn't 1990's Ontario, so it's not like a divided right can't win, especially if the consolidated progressive vote is stuck below 30%.

I'm kind of surprised the feds are getting involved in this TBH. Given the weakness of PC vote distribution and lack of raison d'etre outside government, a modest swing against them could reduce them to a handful of seats next time.

Trudeau toured Fort Mac, promised extended EI benefits for several Western regions and all necessary assistance. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/trudeau-visits--fort-mcmurray-meets-with-alberta-premier/article30007046/)

BC Grit election prep well underway. (http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-premier-plots-course-to-next-years-provincial-election)

 New BC Poll, BC Liberals leading with strong support from Millennials : (http://ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7238)  BC Liberals 42/NDP 36/Conservatives 11/Green 10

Mulcair will retire in 2019. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201605/15/01-4981747-thomas-mulcair-quittera-la-politique-en-2019.php)

LOL. Junk poll! Does anyone remember how badly Ipsos screwed up in Ontario?

At this point, ~ one year out from the 2013 BC election, Ipsos-Reid had the BC NDP leading by an astounding 19%!

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5659

As for Ipsos-Reid during the 2014 ON election, their last opinion poll pegged the ONDP at 30% - actual was 23.8%.

My main point? Ipsos-Reid and other opt-in online panel pollsters always overestimate the NDP vote. Both Ipsos-Reid and Angus-Reid (also opt-in online) had similar 8%-9% BC NDP leads in their last day polls the day prior to the May, 2013 BC election.

Opt-in online and IVR are just cheap polling junk. Give me a "gold-standard" CATI poll any day of the week. ;)

Transgender law will be tabled tomorrow. (http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201605/15/01-4982002-transgenres-ottawa-deposera-un-projet-de-loi-mardi.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B13b_politique-canadienne_560_section_POS1)

Forum: (http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2511/convincing-supermajority-if-election-held-today/) 52/29/11. Justin at 57% approval.

If opt-in panels always over estimate the NDP, then why does ipsos have the NDP lower than any of the other pollsters? Hmmm?

Haha. What other pollsters? BTW... I do know my stuff. So have at 'er! ;)

Howabout the Insights West poll that was posted on this very thread on the previous page? Howabout every other poll published since January 2014?

So what are the electoral reform proposals being looked at, and beyond the letters (IRV, MMP, etc), what exactly do they mean?

They haven't mentioned anything specific, but IRV is their likeliest option, reading between the lines.

I disagree with that assessment. The Liberals would prefer it of course, but no other party would back them on it, so it would look bad if they pushed for a system that only they support.

What is most likely to happen is not much. The Liberals won't pursue IRV without another party supporting, so they will drop the issue, as most other systems would require boundary changes (see my thread) or increasing the size of parliament, and they would not likely do that. My worst fear is that the only reform they go with, which is the worst possible "reform", is to adopt online voting.

May I ask why you are so opposed to the idea? Do you think it's going to be compromised or something?

Yeah, it's always a possibility. This is a good video that explains why it's a bad idea: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3_0x6oaDmI

No rush to bring back the per-vote subsidy. (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/05/17/per-vote-subsidy-canada-trudeau-harper_n_10014486.html)

good policy, but very unpopular.

So things got spicy on the House floor today. (https://twitter.com/RichardMadan/status/733053905232224257)

As concerning as it is that Justin thinks he can manhandle MPs, it's not like he intended for that to happen.

Brosseau no. The rest yes. Bouncer's instinct I guess. Context is impending guillotine on euthanasia & other bills.  (http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/liberals-threaten-to-take-full-control-of-the-house-as-deadline-looms-1.2907468)

I generally really like Brosseau and Ashton but God, they both came out of this looking stupid. Brosseau with her "omg someone grazed me while walking through a crowd, I had to leave the room and cry about it!" and Ashton with her "women need to feel safe!" speech. How don't women feel safe? Does she think Trudeau is going to rape someone in the House of Commons?

Well it's good to know Trudeau is still prone to saying and doing silly things. This incident won't move many votes but the pattern hopefully might in four years.

Also, what is Trudeau doing that for? He has backbenchers for these tasks :P

In all fairness I judge an MP by the number of House of Commons fights they've gotten into

In more important news, the NEB has conditionally approved Trans Mountain. (https://twitter.com/kevinlibin/status/733388072314933248)

No, she expects the Prime Minister not to act like a thug on the floor of Parliament. Clearly, he didn't mean to hit her on purpose, but his actions leading up to it were just as disturbing and were directly responsible for the incident that followed.

  I have said  a few times already to some of my friends who follow Canadian Politics...Trudeau makes both President Barack Obama and President Enrique Pena Nieto look like statesmen. #TrudeauIsTruTrash

I mean, I don't care anymore, really they're all horrible and I don't even live there anymore, but it's fun watching people trip over themselves to proclaim that Trudeau is this big feminist icon that must be protected while attacking and denouncing the actual woman that was involved in this altercation.

But he's a man so it's all good.

Harper will quit Parliament before fall, will sit on corporate boards and involve himself in the foreign policy world. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/harper-will-step-down-as-mp-before-parliaments-fall-session/article30133335/)

Tories prepping for this weekend's convention. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/conservatives-ready-for-partyconvention/article30133342/)

Wynne planning a Cabinet overhaul after the Leg adjourns in a couple of weeks. (https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/05/25/kathleen-wynne-plans-major-cabinet-shuffle-in-june.html)

Premier approval ratings. (http://angusreid.org/premier-approval-may2016/)

Since the general election I haven't payed much attention to Canadian politics, but I understand the Liberals are riding high in the polls. Are they really so popular, or is it just that there is no alternative because the PC and the NDP don't know what they want and who they are? And could anyone update me on what has happened policy-wise since Trudeau took office? :)

Trudeau is quite popular. Obviously there are factions that don't like him (conservatives, socialists, separatists), but he has managed to own the 'promiscuous progressive' demographic. The NDP have struggled to differentiate themselves from the Liberals and are languishing at 1990's levels of support and Thomas Mulcair lost a non-confidence motion at NDP's convention this spring. The Tories still have their ~30% base.  I suspect the polls will stay this way until the Tories and NDP pick new leaders.

Policy wise, some of the more salient points are:
1) Cutting taxes for the $45,000-$90,000 tax bracket and adding a new bracket for incomes over $200,000
2) Expanding child benefits, and removing the universal component to make the program 100% income based
3) Legalizing marijuana
4) An assisted suicide bill which legalizes the practice but is still relatively restrictive.
5) Running a $30 billion deficit instead of the promised $10 billion.
6) Early, early stages of electoral reform (still probably not going to happen)

Thanks! But many of these things have not been implemented yet, right?

The taxes, deficit, and child benefits have all been implemented. Assisted suicide is working its way through parliament. Marijuana legalization and electoral reform have yet to be introduced as bills in parliament.

Quebec provincial election poll-May 23rd
CROP Poll
Liberal-34%
Coalition Avenir Québec-27%
Parti Québécois-26%
Québec solidaire-11%
Other-3%

http://static.lpcdn.ca/fichiers/html/2508/CROP_-_Course_au_PQ.pdf (http://static.lpcdn.ca/fichiers/html/2508/CROP_-_Course_au_PQ.pdf)

Defeated MLA Keith Bain has won the Tory nomination in Victoria-The Lakes. Bain served two terms before being defeated by Pam Eyking, wife of Liberal MP Mark Eyking

Wildrose attacks Wynne's policies to her face when she was Notley's gallery guest this week. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/alberta/wildrose-insults-an-ally-alberta-dearly-needs-for-energy-east/article30196332/) Lead attacker suspended from caucus for another reason. (http://globalnews.ca/news/2727371/alberta-mla-derek-fildebrandt-suspended-from-wildrose-caucus-over-unacceptable-social-media-comment/)

Tories drop opposition to SSM (https://twitter.com/jasonfekete/status/736676678592667648), Grits adopt a new party constitution.

The several municipalities in Pictou County (Peter MacKay's home county), with a combined population of 45k have rejected amalgamation in a referendum. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/pictou-county-plebiscite-amalgamation-vote-1.3605486)

Hatman is likely pleased. I am not :P

Woohoo! You have to admit, it has gotten pretty ridiculous in Nova Scotia. Pretty soon the whole province will be one municipality!

New Glasgow supported the merger, but the other three municipalities did not. The Town of Pictou was very divided, the western ward supported it 54-46 but the eastern ward did not (58% no).  Results: http://munpict.ca/images/elections_images/may28_2016results.pdf

Page 3 is saying that Yes got 44% and no 66%, so, I wouldn't trust them.

Whoa: Tootoo is leaving Cabinet and the Grit caucus to seek addiction treatment.  (https://twitter.com/althiaraj/status/737788329341661184)Best of luck to him. 3rd in recent years after Saganash and O'Regan.

Stepping down from cabinet I understand - but leaving the caucus, to sit as an independent, for addiction treatment? That seems weird. I would not be surprised at all if there turns out to be more to this than has been announced.

Rampant journo speculation on Twitter about that, but nothing yet.

Speculation is that he got drunk at the Liberal convention and was inappropriately hitting on a staffer.

Alcohol abuse is unfortunately all to common among the Aboriginal community, even among high profile politicians (as we saw with Saganash). I hope that stories such as these shed a light on this issue. 

That's it?

Globe says Trudeau told caucus that there was nothing in particular. There have been embarrassing drunk performances, most infamously the late Ralph Klein. In the Diefenbaker era, there was a minister who was literally piss-drunk at the Montreal airport, and pissed in a potted plant - insisting on pulling down his pants in front of a media gaggle. More recently, Elizabeth May's performance at last year's Press Gallery dinner.

Well, I guess it depends on how inappropriate he was behaving towards said staffer. I'm sure there's zero-tolerance for sexual harassment within the Liberal caucus considering what happened with the two Liberal MPs in the last parliament. 

Chinese foreign minister met with Trudeau yesterday. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-02/trudeau-guarding-family-legacy-woos-china-amid-japan-standoff)

Electoral reform committee's composition being changed. (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/06/02/democratic-reform-committee-monsef_n_10259300.html)

The Liberals have scrapped their majority on the electoral reform committee and have adopted the NDP plan, which alots seats based on the popular vote: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wherry-electoral-reform-committee-1.3612377

Good move! I told you guys the Liberals weren't going to go it alone on this! Though, I didn't expect them to do this, but hey, why not? They weren't going to push something through on their own anyways, so might as well give themselves a minority (plurality) of seats on the committee.

Palmer: BCNDP are underdogs going into next year's campaign. (http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-ndp-face-big-battle-to-grab-dozen-close-margin-seats-from-liberals)

Gallery dinner last night. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/trending/parliamentary-press-gallery-dinner-2016-1.3617005?cmp=rss)

In case anyone hasn't been paying attention to Alberta politics over the past 10 days, the Wildrose Party has not been having a fun time:

Here's a timeline of Derek Fildebrandt's odd and brief suspension from the Wildrose caucus. (http://daveberta.ca/2016/06/derek-fildebrandts-suspension-wildrose/)

CBC analysis of the fallout. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/derek-fildebrandt-s-short-lived-suspension-exposes-cracks-in-wildrose-caucus-1.3614917)

The same week, a group of Wildrose MLAs had to apologize for a blog post comparing the Alberta carbon tax to the Ukrainian Genocide. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/carbon-tax-linked-to-ukrainian-genocide-in-wildrose-post-1.3616083)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In slightly related news, the Alberta PCs will choose a new leader in Spring 2017. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-progressive-conservatives-to-elect-new-leader-next-spring-1.3617259)

Fildebrandt is a bit of an odd ball. He was in a few of my classes at university, and his politics were very insane.

Clark is eager to lead her Grits into battle. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/christy-clark-sings-familiar-pre-election-song-but-sings-it-louder-now/article30345906/)

Well yeah PM, referenda are supposed to be B&W. As you well know from your own '92 experience. (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/06/08/trudeau-points-to-black-and-whiteness-of-referendum-in-electoral-reform-debate-wells.html)

So, there's a giant sinkhole not too far from parliament...

I guess they'll have to hold their sessions in the other part of Rideau Hall.

Big infrastructure announcements inbound. (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/06/09/trudeau-says-collaboration-will-mark-relationships-among-levels-of-government.html) Ditto massive expansion of parliamentary IC oversight. (http://www.canada.com/news/national/agencies+unprecedented+parliamentary+oversight+under+liberal/11973536/story.html)

???

NDP now ahead in latest Newfoundland poll:

38-34-27: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/cra-poll-dwight-ball-popularity-down-1.3624034

Trudeau considering a NATO request to deploy up to 1000 troops to Eastern Europe. (http://www.canada.com/news/national/liberals+98considering+nato+request+2c000+canadian+troops/11976373/story.html) Believe if seen.

Forum: (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/06/10/elbowgate-did-nothing-to-hurt-trudeaus-popularity-forum-poll-says.html) 49/32/10. Justin's approval steady at 57%.

Gordie Howe has died. RIP.

More Wildrose Party shenanigans: A constituency association passes a resolution calling for a review of Brian Jean's leadership at the next AGM. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/brian-jean-wildrose-leadership-review-1.3624684)

Alberta NDP convention this weekend in Calgary. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-ndp-convention-2016-calgary-set-up-1.3624926)  According to Twitter, a resolution will be debated about whether the ABNDP should disaffiliate from the national party.

Holy crap, those NDP numbers are devastating. How many seats do you think the NDP would win with 10% of the nationwide vote?

If they centralize their votes in the right places and focus on maintaining rather than gaining, they shouldn't lose more than 10 or so.

The NDP better hope the housing booms in Toronto and Vancouver burst and/or liberals antagonise Quebec.

That's a big if though. The NDP vote is spread pretty thin. They didn't win many seats by a large margin. If you apply a proportional swing to Forum's regional numbers the NDP win maybe half a dozen seats.

Of course, the NDP will get a new leader, the economy might change, or the Liberals might anger the left, so it's far from hopeless, but the NDP are danger of very, very serious losses next election.

Wynne's Cabinet overhaul will be tomorrow. (https://twitter.com/robertbenzie/status/742054472483020800)

I really hope this passes. I'm not sure how this would work though.  According to my understanding of the Federal NDP rules, the Alberta NDP would have to change its name, and then the Federal NDP might be required to set up a new provincial Alberta NDP.

Hopefully I'm not right about the second part.  If the NDP lose the next B.C provincial election, I would hope and expect that a similar resolution would be presented at their first convention subsequent to that.

As a federal Liberal and (generally) provincial NDP supporter here in B.C, I really don't like it that only people who are members of the Federal NDP can be members of the provincial NDP.

You might argue in response 'that's just the way it goes' but I'd point out that if the NDP lose the next election, it would be five straight losses.

Wouldn't it work similar to the BC Liberals and the Federal party?

My understanding is that the Federal NDP Constitution mandates that any provincial or civic organization affiliated with the Federal NDP, so that would include any party that uses the name "New Democrat" is automatically tied to Federal NDP rules, so that a person who wants to join the provincial NDP also has to join the federal NDP.

I was just guessing that if the Alberta NDP voted to dissociate with the Federal NDP that the Federal NDP would be obligated under its Constitution to start up a new Alberta NDP, as, for instance, there is no provincial Quebec NDP  political party.  But even if there is no such rule, I would certainly expect that left wing members of the NDP in other provinces and in Alberta would demand that the Federal NDP start a new NDP provincial party in Alberta.

I can only name one New Democrat who was a member of the Provincial NDP who was allowed to not be part of the Federal NDP.  Laurent Desjardins, a member of the legislature in Manitoba for St. Boniface was elected as a provincial Liberal, but when the NDP under Ed Schreyer won the 1969 election with 28 of 57 seats, he was allowed to join the provincial NDP and was named Minister of Health sometime in 1970 or so, while being allowed to remain a Federal Liberal.

There was also some high profile NDP candidate in Quebec in 1988 who was given a special Federal NDP only card so that he didn't have to join the Provincial Quebec NDP which at that time was a fringe party led by some fairly odd people.

I believe the Federal NDP also turned a blind eye towards Bernie Simpson here in B.C who was an MLA from 1991-1996 and who, I'm pretty sure at the time, was regarded to be a Federal Liberal supporter, which turned out to likely be accurate as he played a major role in the Sheila Copps leadership campaign when she ran against Paul Martin.

Another hostage has been executed by Abu Sayyaf. Government is aware. (https://twitter.com/CTVMercedes/status/742310258224300032)

Federal carbon tax being mooted by Finance. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/finance-canada-pondering-federal-carbon-tax-to-reduce-emissions/article30408215/)

The Trudeau government is expected to introduce changes to the taxation of medical practices with the view of avoiding physicians 'abuse' of small business taxation. So now, every accountant I know, including myself is rearranging their physician clients' affairs. This will cost money but will more or less mitigate the tax increase that the changes will bring about...

I'm starting to think Trudeau is in the pocket of the Chartered Accountants :P

CPP expansion plan has been released. Relevant points:

1) CPP premium will go from 4.95% to 5.95%. Coverage will expand from 25% of pre retirement income to 33%

2) CPP coverage will expand from the first $55k of earnings to over $80k.

3) WITB will expand to compensate for premium increase and CPP premiums over $55k will be tax deductible. ORPP will be scrapped.

I like the plan personally. After the OAS debacle I was skeptical that the Liberals would produce a reasonable CPP refirm, so I'll give Trudeau credit where it's due.

I'd like it if all payroll taxes that businesses pay were eliminated.  Tax the dividends or capital gains instead.

I also don't see why there needs to be payroll taxes for CPP and EI.  No other 'entitlement' is paid for by a direct tax, except for the health tax here in B.C.  Even gas taxes that are supposedly earmarked for transit projects mostly go into general revenue.

I can understand the idea for payroll taxes on workers, as it's probably best to have a broad range of taxes so as to keep each rate as low as possible.  "The art of taxation..." said the French finance minister a few hundred years ago.

3 Amigos agenda. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/brexit-prompts-new-north-american-leaders-summit-agenda/article30621999/)

19 Senate vacancies will soon be filled. (http://www.hilltimes.com/2016/06/27/trudeau-government-poised-to-start-the-process-for-filling-19-vacant-senate-seats/71379)

3 Amigos update. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/three-amigos-meet-what-to-expect-thisweek/article30629609/)

We will be sending several hundred troops to lead a NATO MNF in Latvia, and Trudeau will visit Ukraine after the NATO summit next week.  (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/06/29/carrots-and-sticks-play-prominent-role-in-canadian-policy-on-ukraine-paul-wells.html)

15 minute longer commute. THANKS, OBAMA.

Trudeau will visit China in September, shortly before the Hangzhou G20, and Chinese Premier Li will visit later that month. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/chinese-premier-li-keqiang-to-visit-canada-in-september/article30730397/)

Trudeau contemplating privatizing major airports to raise infrastructure cash.  (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/07/03/ottawa-eyes-airport-sell-off-to-raise-infrastructure-cash.html)

CETA still on track. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/despite-brexit-vote-key-eu-powers-vow-to-ratify-ceta-deal/article30737526/)

would he sell the one named after his dad?

Of course.

ALL LIBERAL ALL THE TIME

Taking from the Wynne handbook, I see.

Alberta holding up an interprovincial trade deal. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/alberta-seeks-exemption-in-provincial-trade-deal-to-favour-local-firms/article30752429/)

EU slow-walking CETA at German & French request. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/ec-set-to-scrap-plans-to-fast-track-ceta-deal-report/article30753778/)

Trudeau Jr. is like the dream liberal, he would have taken the democratic primaries in a walk

Meanwhile, in Australia:

()

He is a Conservative. A real Liberal would have booted Deepak Chopra, CEO of Canada Post, as soon he entered office. It's an union-busting, anti-equal pay, anti-customer state corporation which should have been reined in long ago (and Chopra banned from any position in government for mismanagement).

Justin Trudeau is the dream Liberal with a capital L. Campaign as progressives, govern as technocratic centrists to keep "red Tories" satisfied, and very occasionally throw red meat to keep the NDP down.

You sound like a lot of GOP rhetoric circa 2010

...hence the perfect democratic candidate

No surprises in Abacus social issue polling. (http://abacusdata.ca/canadians-moral-compass-set-differently-from-that-of-our-neighbours-to-the-south/)

I think it's pretty interesting that there are no differences between the US and Canada as to the acceptability of the death penalty. I know that many Western countries that have abolished the death penalty still retain general public support in the 50-60% range, but I'm still rather surprised that our two countries are so close as to the moral acceptability.

I'm also surprised that both the US and Canada are so strongly opposed to human cloning. Apart from religious reasons (and even those are debatable), so long as there are proper regulations in place, I don't understand why it's so strongly considered to be immoral.

Overall, I wish there were at least regional breakdowns as to this polling. Considering they're social issues, I'm sure Quebec is pulling Canada to the left and the South is pulling the US to the right. I have to wonder if the US without the South might actually be to the left on many social issues compared to Canada without Quebec. (Also, looking at the poll on pornography, Canadians are probably fairly more honest overall than Americans.)

It's dishonest to believe that something you do is immoral?

Well that confirms my guess that ~20-25% of Tories are socons. Also, I wish they had thrown in a few economic morality questions. Those might have shown a bit more of a divide between the Liberals and NDP.


Agreed

Trudeau visited Auschwitz before heading to Ukraine. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-poland-1.3672380)

Forum: (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/07/10/trudeaus-liberals-would-sweep-house-of-commons-seats-if-vote-held-today-new-poll-suggests.html)52/28/10. Almost a reverse 1958.

Brown woos Northern Ontario. (https://www.sudbury.com/local-news/are-these-the-tory-leaders-who-could-win-northern-ontario-333243)

RB, Obviously it's really early days, and if the Chretien era is any guide to the future, Trudeau's margins will narrow closer to the election. However it's still possible the Liberals could cruise at these levels right through the 2019 election, particularly if the NDP doesn't get their act together. At what point would you start worrying if the Liberals continue to get 45-52% in the polls?

If we get a PR-based electoral system, *and* the NDP moves left, then I think we'll see many conservatives strategically voting Liberal to grant them a majority.

I'll start worrying in 18 months.

In January 2012, there was serious talk whether the Liberal Party would become a permanent third party like its British cousin. Hell, they were polling in 3rd last summer.

Yeah, but the Liberals have more built-in advantages than the CPC. The ability to pretend to be many things at once is a huge asset. And the only thing that was holding them back during their last slump was an apparent loss of credibility thanks a combination of poor leadership for almost a decade and the NDP projecting strength. The likes of Nikki Ashton won't be able to help make the NDP look like a serious party, and Trudeau will be a popular progressive/centrist incumbent.

Hell, Justin has the potential to beat Laurier's record as longest-serving consecutive prime minister... especially if we get some kind of preferential voting. It's a bit sad, really. But I doubt I'll have very compelling reasons to vote against him myself.

Predicting the outcome of an election 4 years before is always a terrible idea.

Especially in Canada, what with our habit of 25% swings.

lol @ bringing up Nikki Ashton for no reason.

Polls: voters want an electoral reform referendum. (http://www.hilltimes.com/2016/07/11/referendum-question-dominates-initial-electoral-reform-committee-work/73344)

Hmm: senior Grit apparatchik likes preferential ballot. (http://www.hilltimes.com/2016/07/11/meet-jack-siegel-the-guy-who-led-grits-green-light-committee-and-why-he-favours-preferential-ballot-electoral-system/73044)

Trudeau signed a Ukrainian FTA today. (http://globalnews.ca/news/2815950/trudeau-signs-canada-ukraine-free-trade-agreement/?sf30679940=1)

There's a very good reason. She exemplifies the generally low calibre of the candidates who will be vying to replace Mulcair. It may not actually be her, but if you can convincingly find me a potential prime minister in the bunch I'll re-evaluate. I don't think you can.

So honestly, I stand by my assertion that the fundamentals are extremely favourable for the Liberal Party. And yes, when I say that I do mean for years and years to come.

Hagrid, do you think Julian, Boulerice or Angus are "low-quality?"

Angus still doesn't speak French, as far as I know.

The NDP will take losses in Quebec no matter if the federal leader speaks French or not, and him learning is certainly not out of the question.

Nikki Ashton will not win, so it's plain ol' trolling to bring up her name. Might as well keep talking about Brad Trost for leader of the Conservatives. But that would be intellectually dishonest.

RB is right re Julian and Boulerice. I also keep mentioning Jagmeet Singh as well as a potential candidate. The NDP has some strong leadership potentials, they're just not household names yet.

AB-Insights West: (http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/pcs-would-take-first-place-with-kenney-at-helm-poll-finds) 35/27/22.

ON-Forum: (https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/07/14/ontario-progressive-conservatives-hold-lead-but-liberals-closing-gap-in-new-poll.html) 42/35/17.

I agree Nikki Ashton won't win, but I wouldn't discount Niki Ashton.

Grenier: NDP won the First Nations reservation vote in 2015
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-on-reserve-voting-2015-1.3677098

()

Headline "NDP still won the First Nations vote " is misleading, but what else to expect from Grenier? Article is about the reserve vote. I suspect the urban First Nations vote was more Liberal (look at Winnipeg Centre for example).

I don't think Grenier can be blamed for that as most of the time (if not all of the time) the writer of the article doesn't write the headline.  Maybe that's just for newspapers and not for television websites though.

Maybe; but I'll take any excuse to complain about him ;)

Dion replaces 20+ ambassadors (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2016/07/19/diplomatic-slate-swept-clean-of-more-than-two-dozen-tory-appointed-ambassadors/#.V44oIvnyuUk) while Philpott negotiates a new health accord. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeaus-smooth-provincial-relations-face-first-test-over-health-care/article30973916/)

Entire federal public service's personal info is now compromised. (https://twitter.com/CBCKatie/status/755513454165884928)

NS NDP leader Gary Burrill will not run the Halifax Needham by-election and instead will run in Halifax Chebucto at the next GE. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/ndp-nw-democratic-party-gary-burrill-seat-halifax-chebucto-1.3689460) Kind of a surprise move since Halifax Needham is basically a microcosm of the NDP, there's working class bits, minorities, students, and artsy activist types all in one riding.

Internal trade as elusive as ever. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/beer-wars-provincial-trade-alcohol-1.3689589)

BC Grit election prep well underway. (http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/vaughn-palmer-liberals-begin-pre-election-transition-into-action-figures)

Will we see a BC or NS election first?

BC most likely.

I don't see either provincial government as calling an early election. However if one did it probably would be Nova Scotia.

Tootoo won't be readmitted to caucus despite finishing rehab. (https://twitter.com/DonMartinCTV/status/758298787978809345) Wonder what else there is to this story.

Government wants a FDI-fuelled IT boom, a modern successor to Howe's postwar boom. (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/07/27/justin-trudeaus-summer-homework-easing-canadas-brain-drain-paul-wells.html)

Duke and Duchess of Cambridge will be visiting this fall. (http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2016/07/27/newsalert-william-and-kate-are-coming-to-canada-for-their-second-visit-this-fall-2/#.V5jAFPkrKUl)

Tootoo was expelled from caucus due to allegations of an inappropriate relationship with a junior staffer. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/sex-allegations-led-to-tootoos-ouster-from-liberal-caucus/article31146044/)

New Supreme Court nomination process: a 7-member advisory panel chaired by Kim Campbell will make recommendations, and Trudeau will choose from that list. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/why-canada-has-a-new-way-to-choose-supreme-court-judges/article31220275/)

Q2 fundraising # in: (https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/760478268155768832) $5.1M/$4.9M/$1.1M.

Mel Hurtig has died (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-born-mel-hurtig-remembered-as-agitator-proud-canadian-1.3707798)

Wells on a potential debate commission. (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/08/06/everyone-has-a-stake-in-national-leaders-debates-paul-wells.html)

So, I volunteered at the Liberal tent at a Korean heritage festival in Burnaby South yesterday. I had a decent time, but I have to say that I completely underestimated a certain phenomenon at play in federal election politics today. An old lady—a frequent volunteer for the party—pointed it out and I scoffed because I thought it was kind of an insulting way to think of female voters, but through the day it proved to be surprisingly insightful: Women really, legitimately swoon over Justin Trudeau. And the Liberal Party knows it, so virtually all of their branding goes heavy on using his name and picture.

We gave out gigantic posters of his face, little post cards of his face, buttons with his face on them... and women would come and get so giddy and take everything. They took photos with the large sign panel of Trudeau. It's astounding to me. And sadly, I highly doubt they could have told me much of anything about his policies.

Is it a big factor? I don't know. But Trudeau has an image that will be very, very difficult to tarnish, especially now that he has the incumbency on his side. The whole thing put a very sour taste in my mouth. And although I will probably vote Liberal in the next election, I continue to be, uh... not the biggest fan of the Prime Minister. It was great to see him and his perfect family at Pride last weekend, but I can't get over some things about the guy and how his image has been constructed and received.

But I remain convinced that he could literally be the prime minister for decades.

Twitter has been going crazy with shirtless pics of Trudeau on vacation.

To be fair, there are a few female politicians that I have swooned over in the past, even Conservative ones (e.g. Helena Guergis).

Care to expand? Is it that he essentially went from night club bouncer to Prime Minister?

This is true. Dynasties and Interludes (https://www.amazon.ca/Dynasties-Interludes-Canadian-Electoral-Politics/dp/1554887968) has a great account of Trudeaumania 1.0. Trudeau Sr. cruised to victory in 1968, but by 1972 surveys had begun to describe him as arrogant and he nearly lost re-election. By the late 1970's that reputation had been firmly cemented.

Although the fundamentals are extremely sound for the Liberal Party right now, and they will probably win re-election next time, it is conceivable that Justin Trudeau could screw up and have a shorter term in office than Stephen Harper. Suppose we have nasty recession in 2018-2019 and Trudeau makes some off the cuff remarks that come off as uncaring and arrogant. It's not that difficult to imagine especially in Canadian politics.

Depends if Justin can consolidate the left while keeping the centre. What Hagrid is describing is Grit Inc., when there was no opposition to speak of inside or outside Parliament till 1945, and a mostly useless one thereafter. (Put another way, do you think he's a political genius like King?) He'll definitely win in 2019, beyond that depends on the economy and remaining scandal-free.

His reign as Pm will probably last as long as he has CBC and other major news networks on his jock, his image is doing more for the liberals than any policy or program ever could, if he loses that he could be done very quickly

I think it's important to know that Justin hasn't just been camping shirtless and abusing MPs, he has gotten things done that were in the Liberal platform.

Yeah but the way CBC fawns over him is similar to how Russia today  covers Putin lol

Please leave.

It's a hyperbole lol

Still, please show yourself out of this thread.

While it is very likely he'll win re-election in 2020, nothing is certain in Canadian politics, so I would be very cautious about making bold predictions.

Planned ISIS suicide bombing of a major city was thwarted by security services. (http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canadian-terror-threat-linked-to-police-operation-in-ontario-town-1.3023694)

Elizabeth May is considering resigning as Leader of the Greens. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elizabeth-may-taking-time-off-to-consider-resigning-as-green-party-leader/article31356925/)

This is a safe space for Canada

Because you, him and others are ruining the commentary which was taking place in the damn thread.

Do the Greens have anybody even remotely notable besides Elizabeth May?

They've elected a couple MLA's who are semi-prominent.

In otherwords, no.

I think it's important to remember that Elizabeth May wasn't too widely known when she was first elected leader. It wouldn't surprise me if the Greens picked a relative unknown with some political experience. Gord Miller (former Environmental Commissioner of Ontario) is a likely contender and the kind of person who would likely succeed her. David Chernushenko (Ottawa City Councillor) is another possibility, along with Andrew Weaver (BC MLA and BC Greens Leader).

This is a rather remote possibility, and is speculation, but if May were to have a particularly rocky exit from the leadership, I could see her crossing the floor and joining the Liberals.

Canola dispute threatens to cloud Trudeau's G20 Beijing visit. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/canola-dispute-threatens-to-overshadow-trudeaus-trip-to-china/article31384092/) As for May, she's been Grit-friendly throughout her leadership, especially when Dion was Grit leader. Highly unlikely but not totally impossible.

Immigration levels will be substantially increased from this year's 285-305k target. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/john-mccallum-substantially-increase-immigration-labour-shortages-1.3718831?cmp=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter)

Chernushenko has been a rather lacklustre city councillor. She probably doesn't speak French, but Adrienne Carr in Vancouver is the strongest Green city councillor in the country.

It's not like the Green Party actually exists in Quebec, though.

True, but the leader should at least be able to speak broken French, if they want to participate in t he debates. Only a right wing populist type (e.g. Preston Manning) can get away with not speaking French as leader, as part of their appeal would be not wanting to appease Quebeckers.

RIP Mauril Belanger. (https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/765722198845845504) :(

Delacourt floats the idea that May joins the Grits. (http://ipolitics.ca/2016/08/16/is-liz-may-looking-to-make-a-leap-to-the-liberals/) Been waiting for this since 2008.

When Elizabeth May would speak French, which wasn't often, it was astoundingly bad. I tend to think that people are more critical of how Anglophones' fluency in French than vice versa, but still.

But yeah, a Green leader doesn't need to speak French as much as the others do.

A new opinion poll for BC today by Innovative Research - a CATI poll (landline/cell) with these results:

BC Lib: 38%
BC NDP: 29%
BC Green: 16%
BC Con: 15
Other: 2%

https://www.scribd.com/document/321630168/Innovative-Research-Group-Survey#from_embed

That's incredibly sad.

Also, it's incredibly interesting that the BC Conservatives are starting to poll somewhat highly (higher than they got in the last elections, at least). I'm really not sure what they would have to run on, though.

Meanwhile in Ontario, (https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/08/19/ontario-tories-hold-steady-lead-in-latest-poll.html) Tories holding steady at 41/28/23. Really need a Scarborough poll though.

Wells on Philpott's limo bill. (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/08/19/philpotts-limo-bill-offers-warning-to-liberals-in-future-paul-wells.html)

The high Green numbers are hurting the NDP. I suspect come election time, the Green vote will go down as left of centre voters rally behind the NDP in a futile effort to stop the Liberals from winning.

Hopefully if the Liberals do lead for most of the campaign, the Conservative will remain high.

Will Brown recruit the doctors to his cause? (http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news/national/ontario-pc-leader-brown-must-weigh-political-costs-of-aligning-with-doctors/article31462289/?cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globe?ord=1)

Cabinet shuffle at the top of the hour. (https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/766687833063034882)

Bardish Chagger is now House Leader. Weird to give a rookie that post, but we know NOTHING MATTERS. (https://twitter.com/AaronWherry/status/766697750922686464)

I'm sure she'll do great!

Seems odd that Trudeau/The Liberals has included so many South Asians and no East Asians in his Government. Just something I've noticed.

She worked for Trudeau's 2013 leadership campaign, so the two probably have some sort of personal camaraderie.

IIRC, heavily East Asian ridings stayed relatively Tory while South Asian ridings swung hard Liberal last time. That has to play a part.

Yeah, I guess that's the case. The Liberals do have some East Asian MPs, though. I'm sure that had Ted Hsu stayed in Parliament he would have got some sort of Cabinet position dealing with  science/technology.

May's decision could come as early as tomorrow. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news/politics/green-party-leader-elizabeth-may-to-decide-political-future-soon/article31484201/?cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globe)

Not really politics (though Trudeau was there) but the Tragically Hip's final concert was quite....lovely?  Didn't quite realize how popular the band was up there.

Duke and Duchess of Cambridge will tour BC/Yukon the last week of September. (https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/767693140350361600)

It was very touching. Was nearly in tears. How do you know about them? From what I gather they aren't well known in the US.

May is staying as leader. (https://twitter.com/kady/status/767723148234010624)

Well, I've lived in New Orleans for some time now and they wrote one song that wasn't about Canada.  Actually saw them play in New Orleans back in the early 90s.  Can't say that I had kept up with them over the years, but I started seeing stories about Gordon and his cancer and the final show, so I tuned in.

Elsie Wayne has died. RIP. (https://twitter.com/poitrasCBC/status/768077806672773125)

Interesting; how many people were there?


Oh wow. RIP

It was in a decent sized open venue (no seating).  I think House of Blues though it could have been Tipitina's.  Not packed but full, maybe 400 people.    "New Orleans is Sinking" would get radio airplay locally long after it came out and this was well after it had been released, but it was still the centerpiece of the show, they played a much longer jammed out version.  I know they came back thru town after Katrina, but I didn't see that show.

Amusing FCO 80s dispatches on leading political personalities. Agree with most of them. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/files-show-what-uk-diplomats-really-thought-of-1980s-canada-but-were-too-polite-tosay/article31509943/)

Richard Hatfield: "very much a bachelor".  I suppose it was common knowledge what this was code for? :D

O'Malley (http://ottawacitizen.com/storyline/kady-monsefs-road-to-electoral-reform-may-not-be-able-to-bypass-referendum?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter) and Hebert (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/08/25/its-risky-to-use-todays-trends-to-predict-the-electoral-future-hbert.html) on electoral reform.

Trudeau's top choice for ambassador to Beijing has declined. (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/trudeau-fails-to-land-mckinsey-executive-for-envoy-post-in-china/article31547489/)

Crossposted for obvious reasons: Harper is leaving politics today. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-26/canada-s-harper-iconic-conservative-leader-to-quit-politics?nnw0999)

Dear god no... right?

No, that's just a strategic move to keep the NDP down. Grits have been doing this with social democratic third parties for nearly a century, it ain't new. Most recently, Paul Martin campaigned with then CAW-chief Buzz Hargrove in 2004/6.

That has happened in exactly none of those places. In Australia and New Zealand the liberal party (that is to say, the pro-free trade party) merged with the conservative party (that is to say, the anti-free trade party), while in Britain the liberal party was reduced to third-party status.