Talk Elections

I'll post the full report when it comes up.

Is GumobPac an internal though? I thought it was supporting Dardenne.

^ Sorry, not really internal, but GumboPAC is anti-Vitter.

Here's a downloadable sheet of the release. (https://twitter.com/ATuozzolo/status/659804856064962560)

They claim Dardenne/Angelle voters are going 47/46 for Edwards. Great if true - thats more than enough for Edwards to win.

I predict that Vitter will win. Angelle/Dardenne voters will ultimately come home to Vitter, I suspect, and runoff turnout generally favors Republicans.

While I do agree with the first part of your post, the later is basically not true for Louisiana.

If Vitter makes the runoff, then his sex abuse scande will become ful circe. Dardenne already emdorsed Edwards.

That's the conventional wisdom but it's simply not true - at least not in the Southern states, and especially not in Louisiana.

Lean D at this point. Edwards will probably win.

Vitter is blowing it, but need more than an anti-Vitter pac to confirm an advantage this large.

ALG is not just an internal pollster: it is the Democratic internal pollster. It's the go-to pollster for the usually secret internal polling used by DNC, DSCC campaigns and even presidential campaigns. Obama's internal swing state pollster in 2008 and 2012 was ALG; they're the ones who gave the campaign the level of confidence they had in the final days and weeks.

Regardless of its 08/12 accuracy level, internal pollsters should always be viewed with skepticism. They are likely to configure their results to please their customers and to not care about accuracy.

Given that the results of those elections would later prove the validity of the basis for Obama's confidence, shouldn't that mean ALG was pretty accurate in 2008 and 2012?

Anzalone also said Vitter was only up 3 in late October 2010. He won by 19.

Probably - way too optimistic. But there is a REAL possibility that Edwards narrowly prevails. If so (in present day Louisiana) it will be an achievement.

Nah man there's no way Vitter will make the runoff

Weren't they the only pollster to correctly have Reid winning in 2010?

Not really a huge achievement. Louisiana at the state level is more like Kentucky or West Virginia than it is Alabama or Mississippi. Democrats still have good fighting shots there.

Disagree. In 2011 Democrats elected Hood in Mississippi statewide, and nobody - in Louisiana. And formerly responsive to Democratic (albeit - relatively conservative) candidates Acadiana swung heavily Republican since first Obama's election. So - stick to my estimate.

One election /=/ precedent.

One thing is certain: David Vitter inspires a wealth of double-entendres.

He embarrasses himself for his campaign for re-election for the US Senate should he run again.

I can give many other examples. Because Black percentage in Louisiana is somewhat less, then in Mississippi, Democratic candidates need better percentage among whites to win there. And it's a problem of late: after Obama's election Louisiana's whites began vote almost identicaly with Mississippi's...

Blacks for sure arent going to forget 2014, and how Hagen, Nunn & Landrieu lost. And how Tillis & Caasidy and Perdue hasnt passed anything beneficial since inauguration, but try to repeal Obamacare. Rural whites in KY arent voting in large numbers for Bevin in KY; thus La is in play for Edwards.

In play. But this is maximum that can be expected in Louisiana...

It will be quite something if Edwards can pull this off. He's almost certainly not ahead by that much, but the runoff results suggest that Vitter really was damaged by the most recent scandal. He'll need most of the Angelle/Dardenne voters to come home for him, which is not certain.