Talk Elections

Article. (http://blogs.theadvocate.com/politicsblog/2015/11/03/david-vitter-john-bel-edwards-louisiana-governor-poll-mri/)

With black turnout at 25%:

Edwards (D) - 54%
Vitter (R) - 38%

With black turnout at 20%:

Edwards - 51%
Vitter - 40%

I wouldn't be surprised if Edwards won and Conway lost at this point. But, that can happen.

FWIW, black turnout in the primary was 28%; I don't see why it would dip under 25%, much less down to 20%.

In the 2011 primary, which was the sleepiest Gov race in a while, it was 25.5%.

It actually increased for Landrieu in 2014 : 28.8% in the primary and up to 30.3% in the runoff.

Vitter is toast.

I recall seeing you rated this race as Leans R after the jungle. Do you still think that's the case?

^ Yeah, I'm feeling better ;)

Hey Miles, does the media still cover the stories about Vitter's prostitute and the PI that stalked the sheriff or are they forgotten?

^ Yeah, I'm still seeing stories about it in local media. One of the popular talk show hosts, Jim Ensgter, for example, yesterday did a show with a lawyer that Vitter's PI targeted.

New Poll: Louisiana Governor by Other Source on 2015-10-28 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2015/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2220151028106)

Summary: D: 54%, R: 38%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://blogs.theadvocate.com/politicsblog/2015/11/03/david-vitter-john-bel-edwards-louisiana-governor-poll-mri/)

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I want to see a better pollster here before I start to feel more comfortable about this race.

I did out the map, and the Republicans still do win comfortably.  Anyway, Kentucky is very much up in the air.

After tonight, I have a hard time believing that Edwards can win. If Matt Bevin can easily win, so can Vitter. Candidate quality seems to be irrelevant these days.

I would change my rating for this race from Lean D to lean R after the slaugher of Dems all over the nation but predictions appear to be locked now.

Unfortunately, I agree. I'll believe an Edwards win when I see it.

Conway was always in the margin of error. Edwards is leading by huge, significant margins. Edwards will probably win a lot more narrowly, but I say he still wins solidly, 6-8 points.

The difference is Edwards is above 50% in these polls. Don't let what happened tonight fool you. Edwards has an advantage here.

The problem with comparing this with Kentucky is that there are several polls showing that even if the undecideds to break towards Vitter, it still is not enough for him to win, he actually would have to flip support from Edwards. Scandal tarred candidates tend not to flip support that easily.

Except if you look outside Kentucky it wasn't really a slaughter at all... (Dems +3-4 in NJ Assembly, Dems hold all seats in VA Senate and +1 in HoD, Dems take over Public Services Commission, re-elect Jim Hood, and maintain legislative status quo in Mississippi, take over SCOPA, etc.)

Of course this is true, but people love to exaggerate when it comes to election results.

Democrats also picked up a House district in Missouri while filling a vacant seat previously held by a Democrat.

So we won the seat in Independence?

Yes.

One doesn't really have to do with the other. Edwards is running against a scandal tarred officeholder for an open seat, who is in turn overshadowed by an outgoing Governor who is heavily disliked and accomplished nearly nothing positive.

I realize that this race is not the same as the Kentucky gubernatorial race, but my point is that I'll believe that a Democrat can win in a southern state other than Virginia or Florida again when I see it. This year and last year, we saw that Democrats (often moderate ones) simply could not win in southern red states, even if their opponent was deeply flawed.

Edwards might be over 50% right now (if the polls are accurate), but there are still two and a half weeks left. I'm guessing Republicans will come home for Vitter, even if they won't admit to voting for him in polls. Edwards could pull off a win, but I'm highly skeptical of these numbers.

La has had two Democratic Senators before and have a higher number of blacks concentrated in New Orleans. Bel Edwards has a better chance than Conway.

There are, like, 100 coal miners in the state up around Shreveport, so watch out!

Edwards hopefully gets over 50 percent on election day, so Dems dont have to worry.

Uh, you do realize that this will be a runoff, and that if Edwards doesn't get over 50%, it means that he lost, right?

It may have been a "draw" last night, but Democrats picking up the Pennsylvania Supreme Court (ew, elected Supreme Court justices) and Issue 1 passing in Ohio (by a landslide) will help Democrats in the long-term.

We needed that in Pa, because Dems are narrowly behind Pat Toomey. Pa is starting to act more Democratic.

Yeah, Pennsylvania is a BFD and I'm astounded by how little attention it got by the political press.

Per sources on Twitter, Jay Dardenne is supposedly about to endorse Edwards.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://blogs.theadvocate.com/politicsblog/2015/11/04/john-bel-edwards-promises-major-campaign-announcement-in-governors-race/

Dardenne will get a plum position in the Edwards administration, my guess.

^ Its interesting because just a few days ago, he ruled out running for Baton Rouge mayor.

Yes, Issue 1 was just for state legislature districts but it did put in place limits on how much a county can be split (so no more snakes by the lake, or carving up Cleveland to hell), and there is big incentive on the commission actually agreeing on a map (i.e. coming up with a fair one). The fact that it won so decisively is giving the same group that got in on the ballot momentum to get their congressional district version on the ballot next year.