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Title: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: TeePee4Prez on May 22, 2005, 03:14:14 PM ()
Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 22, 2005, 03:16:38 PM Delco is dark red? No. Lehigh County is red? No.
Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: TeePee4Prez on May 22, 2005, 04:07:13 PM Delco is dark red? No. Lehigh County is red? No. Would you put them as white? Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 22, 2005, 04:09:03 PM Delco is dark red? No. Lehigh County is red? No. Would you put them as white? Delco - white. Lehigh - light blue maybe white. The Dems have had their day in Lehigh, Flyers. That day is long gone now. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: TeePee4Prez on May 22, 2005, 04:11:09 PM Delco is dark red? No. Lehigh County is red? No. Would you put them as white? Delco - white. Lehigh - light blue maybe white. The Dems have had their day in Lehigh, Flyers. That day is long gone now. Lehigh is the quintessential swing county. That and Delaware are too diverse and too close to really pin it down as anything. Philly map coming shortly. I'm sure you'll love that one. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: danwxman on May 22, 2005, 04:20:03 PM Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true?
Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 22, 2005, 04:23:37 PM Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true? More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: TeePee4Prez on May 22, 2005, 05:10:33 PM Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true? More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over. Yes, but the same can be said about Montgomery and Bucks counties. Theya re flying left as a result. danwxman has a point here. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 22, 2005, 05:13:06 PM Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true? More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over. Yes, but the same can be said about Montgomery and Bucks counties. Theya re flying left as a result. danwxman has a point here. dan didn't post a point, Flyers. He asked if it was true and it is. Montco GOP still has atleast some presence. Lehigh Dems are pretty much gone. (By the way, your fantasy about Bucks has to end. The GOP still dominates on the local level there.) Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: J. J. on May 22, 2005, 05:17:44 PM Also, Allegheny County isn't that liberal. It would be populust. Indiana is populist; Westmoreland might actually be light blue.
Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: TeePee4Prez on May 22, 2005, 05:17:55 PM Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true? More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over. Yes, but the same can be said about Montgomery and Bucks counties. Theya re flying left as a result. danwxman has a point here. dan didn't post a point, Flyers. He asked if it was true and it is. Montco GOP still has atleast some presence. Lehigh Dems are pretty much gone. (By the way, your fantasy about Bucks has to end. The GOP still dominates on the local level there.) Lehigh Dems aren't "gone" just yet, but they have slipped. They are holding on to dear life with Jennifer Mann though. From what I heard she is quite popular in her district. Should have won the Senate seat though. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: TeePee4Prez on May 22, 2005, 05:19:54 PM Also, Allegheny County isn't that liberal. It would be populust. Indiana is populist; Westmoreland might actually be light blue. Forgot about Indiana. If you read my notes, I did indeed tone down the social liberalism on that county. Westmoreland was a tossup for me. I was thinking a purple shade for that one. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 22, 2005, 05:20:16 PM Lehigh Dems aren't "gone" just yet, but they have slipped. They are holding on to dear life with Jennifer Mann though. From what I heard she is quite popular in her district. Should have won the Senate seat though. They have Mann and Rooney. That's pretty much all thats left of them. And every year it keeps moving to the right... Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: TeePee4Prez on May 22, 2005, 05:23:20 PM Lehigh Dems aren't "gone" just yet, but they have slipped. They are holding on to dear life with Jennifer Mann though. From what I heard she is quite popular in her district. Should have won the Senate seat though. They have Mann and Rooney. That's pretty much all thats left of them. And every year it keeps moving to the right... Rooney should have ran for Congress. He would have proabably won easily instead of carpetbagging that fool Driscoll. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 22, 2005, 05:24:52 PM Lehigh Dems aren't "gone" just yet, but they have slipped. They are holding on to dear life with Jennifer Mann though. From what I heard she is quite popular in her district. Should have won the Senate seat though. They have Mann and Rooney. That's pretty much all thats left of them. And every year it keeps moving to the right... Rooney should have ran for Congress. He would have proabably won easily instead of carpetbagging that fool Driscoll. He wouldn't win against Dent. Closer, of course, but no win. I'm guess about 52% Dent and 48% Rooney Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: TeePee4Prez on May 22, 2005, 05:28:39 PM Lehigh Dems aren't "gone" just yet, but they have slipped. They are holding on to dear life with Jennifer Mann though. From what I heard she is quite popular in her district. Should have won the Senate seat though. They have Mann and Rooney. That's pretty much all thats left of them. And every year it keeps moving to the right... Rooney should have ran for Congress. He would have proabably won easily instead of carpetbagging that fool Driscoll. He wouldn't win against Dent. Closer, of course, but no win. I'm guess about 52% Dent and 48% Rooney Rooney might have. I mean a yuppie carpetbagger from the Main Line got 40%. That was not a good move for the Democrats however. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Jake on May 22, 2005, 08:00:48 PM In my opinion:
() Purple is populist leaning liberal Dark Red is liberal Light Red is moderately liberal/libertarian Light Blue is moderately conservative Dark Blue is conservative/populist conservative Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Colin on May 22, 2005, 08:09:56 PM Allegheny county as liberal? That is, at best, a stretch. If anything Allegheny is a populist haven just as with most of western PA. Except for possibly Erie I can see no place in Western PA being shaded fully liberal. All of the more Democratic counties, along with a good number of Republican ones, are Populist. In my opinion I would be hard pressed to find a fully liberal area out west, except for some areas of inner-city Pittsburgh. People have to remember that Allegheny county is much more than just Pittsburgh proper.
Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: danwxman on May 23, 2005, 01:06:22 AM Allegheny county as liberal? That is, at best, a stretch. If anything Allegheny is a populist haven just as with most of western PA. Except for possibly Erie I can see no place in Western PA being shaded fully liberal. All of the more Democratic counties, along with a good number of Republican ones, are Populist. In my opinion I would be hard pressed to find a fully liberal area out west, except for some areas of inner-city Pittsburgh. People have to remember that Allegheny county is much more than just Pittsburgh proper. This is pretty much true. But there are some very liberal areas of Pittsburgh like Oakland that are just as liberal as parts of Philadelphia. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: danwxman on May 23, 2005, 01:08:19 AM In my opinion: () Purple is populist leaning liberal Dark Red is liberal Light Red is moderately liberal/libertarian Light Blue is moderately conservative Dark Blue is conservative/populist conservative EDIT: Whoops, Switch Erie and Allegheny Perry county is definetely dark blue. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: bullmoose88 on May 23, 2005, 02:35:04 PM Montco and delaware (more of a stretch here) aren't liberal...(at least yet) I'd put them as Left libertarian...bucks is straight up libertarian, and chester is probably right libertarian (you should have shades of each).
now if flyers could do a SEPA map... Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 23, 2005, 04:45:48 PM now if flyers could do a SEPA map... ...please restore some sanity and do your own. :) Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: bullmoose88 on May 23, 2005, 04:58:19 PM I need a map...and while I'm very familar at bucks co politics...I'd need to do a crash course on the rest of the region to get really really specific.
Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: J. J. on May 23, 2005, 05:25:35 PM First, I'd color Allegheny purple, though there are liberal areas. I'd probably put Westmoreland as purple as well.
Indiana is fairly liberal (university town right the middle of it). I'd go light red with it. Lehigh is probably purple. In the 1990's, there were a number of close state house districts that kept on shifting back and forth and a state senate district that changed hands. That CD has also been competitive. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 23, 2005, 10:28:36 PM That CD has also been competitive. 2000 - 53% Toomey 2002 - 57% Toomey 2004 - 59% Dent It's moving into the safe Republican territory. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: bullmoose88 on May 24, 2005, 09:05:57 AM We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate.
Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: TeePee4Prez on May 24, 2005, 12:46:32 PM We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate. Dent is WAAAAY more moderate than Toomey. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 24, 2005, 04:47:01 PM We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate. Dent is WAAAAY more moderate than Toomey. But does that make the district moderate? No. Look at the 2004 and 2002 numbers. If Dent being more moderate means that the district is much more moderate, why did it only go for Dent by two points more than it did for Toomey? That area is growing rapidly. I spend a good amount of time there (I have family who reside in the area). Economic conservatives (young professionals) who stay pretty close to the area's social conservative roots. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Colin on May 24, 2005, 05:23:41 PM Allegheny county as liberal? That is, at best, a stretch. If anything Allegheny is a populist haven just as with most of western PA. Except for possibly Erie I can see no place in Western PA being shaded fully liberal. All of the more Democratic counties, along with a good number of Republican ones, are Populist. In my opinion I would be hard pressed to find a fully liberal area out west, except for some areas of inner-city Pittsburgh. People have to remember that Allegheny county is much more than just Pittsburgh proper. This is pretty much true. But there are some very liberal areas of Pittsburgh like Oakland that are just as liberal as parts of Philadelphia. But Oakland really isn't that big. Except for the college vote and some parts of Squirrel Hill and Shady Side Pittsburgh is a populist city and Allegheny is a populist county. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: bullmoose88 on May 24, 2005, 11:17:45 PM We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate. Dent is WAAAAY more moderate than Toomey. But does that make the district moderate? No. Look at the 2004 and 2002 numbers. If Dent being more moderate means that the district is much more moderate, why did it only go for Dent by two points more than it did for Toomey? That area is growing rapidly. I spend a good amount of time there (I have family who reside in the area). Economic conservatives (young professionals) who stay pretty close to the area's social conservative roots. Ahem...the fact that Dent didn't run against Ed O'Brien (gah...a corpse could beat him)...might explain why the democrats were able to dampen the moderate advantage Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: TeePee4Prez on May 25, 2005, 01:24:11 AM We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate. Dent is WAAAAY more moderate than Toomey. But does that make the district moderate? No. Look at the 2004 and 2002 numbers. If Dent being more moderate means that the district is much more moderate, why did it only go for Dent by two points more than it did for Toomey? That area is growing rapidly. I spend a good amount of time there (I have family who reside in the area). Economic conservatives (young professionals) who stay pretty close to the area's social conservative roots. Ahem...the fact that Dent didn't run against Ed O'Brien (gah...a corpse could beat him)...might explain why the democrats were able to dampen the moderate advantage Democrats have been very foolish up in that area. All they have is Jennifer Mann and T.J. Rooney. Ed O'Brien was a bad choice for them AND THEY RUN HIM TWICE! Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 25, 2005, 04:42:34 PM We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate. Dent is WAAAAY more moderate than Toomey. But does that make the district moderate? No. Look at the 2004 and 2002 numbers. If Dent being more moderate means that the district is much more moderate, why did it only go for Dent by two points more than it did for Toomey? That area is growing rapidly. I spend a good amount of time there (I have family who reside in the area). Economic conservatives (young professionals) who stay pretty close to the area's social conservative roots. Ahem...the fact that Dent didn't run against Ed O'Brien (gah...a corpse could beat him)...might explain why the democrats were able to dampen the moderate advantage Ahem...bringing a Main Line liberal up was worse than running O'Brien. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Cubby on May 29, 2005, 08:11:41 PM Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true? More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over. Until the New York exurbanites come in, like in Monroe and Pike counties. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: TeePee4Prez on May 29, 2005, 08:17:26 PM Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true? More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over. Until the New York exurbanites come in, like in Monroe and Pike counties. I think Phil is forgetting that factor. Lehigh stayed for the Dems, in fact, it went more for Kerry than Gore. Dent is also WAAY more moderate than Toomey and beat a carpetbagger. I don't know what the Democrats were thinking with Joe Driscoll. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Max Power on May 30, 2005, 09:57:46 AM Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true? More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over. Until the New York exurbanites come in, like in Monroe and Pike counties. I think Phil is forgetting that factor. Lehigh stayed for the Dems, in fact, it went more for Kerry than Gore. Dent is also WAAY more moderate than Toomey and beat a carpetbagger. I don't know what the Democrats were thinking with Joe Driscoll. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: TeePee4Prez on May 30, 2005, 01:41:15 PM Toomey beat a total boob named Ed O'Brien twice. Toomey came off more prim and proper and O'Brien came off as a flaky union guy. I will say this- The Democratic party in PA outside of the Philadelphia area had best better get its act together. There are a couple of "accidents" the Dems had that could have easily been avoided such as Santorum, Hart, Toomey, and now Fitzpatrick had they put up the right candidate. All of the above people won races they should have never won, but surely they took advantage of Democratic incompetence. Now we only have Toomey gone and still have 3 young, ultra-conservative nut job Catholics to eliminate. For some reason, the Dems get scared off by these people and dont' want to do anything to stop them until now. Hopefully, Chris Heinz decides to take on Melissa Hart and Patrick Murphy can make a run for MIke Fitzpatrick in PA 8.
Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 30, 2005, 08:08:21 PM Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true? More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over. Until the New York exurbanites come in, like in Monroe and Pike counties. I think Phil is forgetting that factor. Lehigh stayed for the Dems, in fact, it went more for Kerry than Gore. Dent is also WAAY more moderate than Toomey and beat a carpetbagger. I don't know what the Democrats were thinking with Joe Driscoll. The New York exurbanites are already coming in. Kerry barely won. Dent is more moderate yet only did two points better than Toomey did in 2002. The Lehigh Valley, as much as you'd love to see it be moderate-lean left, keeps moving to the right. You might be winning in our area, Flyers but you're losing in Lehigh. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 30, 2005, 08:24:19 PM Toomey beat a total boob named Ed O'Brien twice. Toomey came off more prim and proper and O'Brien came off as a flaky union guy. I will say this- The Democratic party in PA outside of the Philadelphia area had best better get its act together. There are a couple of "accidents" the Dems had that could have easily been avoided such as Santorum, Hart, Toomey, and now Fitzpatrick had they put up the right candidate. All of the above people won races they should have never won, but surely they took advantage of Democratic incompetence. Now we only have Toomey gone and still have 3 young, ultra-conservative nut job Catholics to eliminate. For some reason, the Dems get scared off by these people and dont' want to do anything to stop them until now. Hopefully, Chris Heinz decides to take on Melissa Hart and Patrick Murphy can make a run for MIke Fitzpatrick in PA 8. Heinz can't beat Hart especially since she has a spot on Ways and Means now. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Colin on May 30, 2005, 08:35:52 PM Toomey beat a total boob named Ed O'Brien twice. Toomey came off more prim and proper and O'Brien came off as a flaky union guy. I will say this- The Democratic party in PA outside of the Philadelphia area had best better get its act together. There are a couple of "accidents" the Dems had that could have easily been avoided such as Santorum, Hart, Toomey, and now Fitzpatrick had they put up the right candidate. All of the above people won races they should have never won, but surely they took advantage of Democratic incompetence. Now we only have Toomey gone and still have 3 young, ultra-conservative nut job Catholics to eliminate. For some reason, the Dems get scared off by these people and dont' want to do anything to stop them until now. Hopefully, Chris Heinz decides to take on Melissa Hart and Patrick Murphy can make a run for MIke Fitzpatrick in PA 8. Heinz can't beat Hart especially since she has a spot on Ways and Means now. Heinz beating Hart? That's near impossible. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: TeePee4Prez on May 30, 2005, 08:49:39 PM Why the hell is Lehigh county trending right? Is this true? More and more young professionals are moving into the area. Economic and social conservative families in the area. The days were unions used to be pretty powerful in the area are over. Until the New York exurbanites come in, like in Monroe and Pike counties. I think Phil is forgetting that factor. Lehigh stayed for the Dems, in fact, it went more for Kerry than Gore. Dent is also WAAY more moderate than Toomey and beat a carpetbagger. I don't know what the Democrats were thinking with Joe Driscoll. The New York exurbanites are already coming in. Kerry barely won. Dent is more moderate yet only did two points better than Toomey did in 2002. The Lehigh Valley, as much as you'd love to see it be moderate-lean left, keeps moving to the right. You might be winning in our area, Flyers but you're losing in Lehigh. Two points isn't that much considering how much more moderate Dent is and they carpetbagged someone for crying out loud. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 30, 2005, 08:50:23 PM Toomey beat a total boob named Ed O'Brien twice. Toomey came off more prim and proper and O'Brien came off as a flaky union guy. I will say this- The Democratic party in PA outside of the Philadelphia area had best better get its act together. There are a couple of "accidents" the Dems had that could have easily been avoided such as Santorum, Hart, Toomey, and now Fitzpatrick had they put up the right candidate. All of the above people won races they should have never won, but surely they took advantage of Democratic incompetence. Now we only have Toomey gone and still have 3 young, ultra-conservative nut job Catholics to eliminate. For some reason, the Dems get scared off by these people and dont' want to do anything to stop them until now. Hopefully, Chris Heinz decides to take on Melissa Hart and Patrick Murphy can make a run for MIke Fitzpatrick in PA 8. Heinz can't beat Hart especially since she has a spot on Ways and Means now. Heinz beating Hart? That's near impossible. Thank you. That name can only get you so far. He'd do better than Hart's past challengers, that's for sure, but he still wouldn't win it. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 30, 2005, 08:51:31 PM Two points isn't that much considering how much more moderate Dent is and they carpetbagged someone for crying out loud. That's all I hear from you. "He's more moderate." Yes, I understand that. However, that only proves my point that the area is not moderate. If it was, Dent would have broke 60%. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Colin on May 30, 2005, 09:08:33 PM Toomey beat a total boob named Ed O'Brien twice. Toomey came off more prim and proper and O'Brien came off as a flaky union guy. I will say this- The Democratic party in PA outside of the Philadelphia area had best better get its act together. There are a couple of "accidents" the Dems had that could have easily been avoided such as Santorum, Hart, Toomey, and now Fitzpatrick had they put up the right candidate. All of the above people won races they should have never won, but surely they took advantage of Democratic incompetence. Now we only have Toomey gone and still have 3 young, ultra-conservative nut job Catholics to eliminate. For some reason, the Dems get scared off by these people and dont' want to do anything to stop them until now. Hopefully, Chris Heinz decides to take on Melissa Hart and Patrick Murphy can make a run for MIke Fitzpatrick in PA 8. Heinz can't beat Hart especially since she has a spot on Ways and Means now. Heinz beating Hart? That's near impossible. Thank you. That name can only get you so far. He'd do better than Hart's past challengers, that's for sure, but he still wouldn't win it. Well considering that Hart got re-elected with 63% of the vote it would not be that hard to improve. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: bullmoose88 on May 30, 2005, 09:12:16 PM Patrick Murphy...more democratic cannonfodder in PA 8...
The Bucks County Democratic Party (indeed all PA 8 democrats) need to take a break from inserting their heads up their collective posteriors and run a candidate who can win...not some candidate they'd like to win. At least Fawkes and the county GOP have realized this notion. The last democrat in this seat was Peter Kostemeyer...a fiscally moderate, socially liberal (well moderately liberal...remember it was the 80s) A moderate conservative will beat a populist in PA 8 any day of the week. Unless Fitzpatrick has been secretely found to be eating small children and animals. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 30, 2005, 09:21:19 PM Patrick Murphy...more democratic cannonfodder in PA 8... The Bucks County Democratic Party (indeed all PA 8 democrats) need to take a break from inserting their heads up their collective posteriors and run a candidate who can win...not some candidate they'd like to win. At least Fawkes and the county GOP have realized this notion. The last democrat in this seat was Peter Kostemeyer...a fiscally moderate, socially liberal (well moderately liberal...remember it was the 80s) A moderate conservative will beat a populist in PA 8 any day of the week. Unless Fitzpatrick has been secretely found to be eating small children and animals. Let them think they have a winner, throw tons of money in the race and end up losing elsewhere. :) Murphy will be better than Schrader though (not like that's hard to do...) Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: bullmoose88 on May 30, 2005, 09:34:53 PM Patrick Murphy...more democratic cannonfodder in PA 8... The Bucks County Democratic Party (indeed all PA 8 democrats) need to take a break from inserting their heads up their collective posteriors and run a candidate who can win...not some candidate they'd like to win. At least Fawkes and the county GOP have realized this notion. The last democrat in this seat was Peter Kostemeyer...a fiscally moderate, socially liberal (well moderately liberal...remember it was the 80s) A moderate conservative will beat a populist in PA 8 any day of the week. Unless Fitzpatrick has been secretely found to be eating small children and animals. Let them think they have a winner, throw tons of money in the race and end up losing elsewhere. :) Murphy will be better than Schrader though (not like that's hard to do...) Well Schrader was supposed to be a sacrificial offering to Greenwood...She would have been fortunate to get anything higher than the high 30% range against Jim. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 30, 2005, 09:40:37 PM Well Schrader was supposed to be a sacrificial offering to Greenwood...She would have been fortunate to get anything higher than the high 30% range against Jim. Yet people, including yourself, thought she had the ability to win the seat once Greenwood announced he was leaving. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: bullmoose88 on May 30, 2005, 09:46:46 PM Well Schrader was supposed to be a sacrificial offering to Greenwood...She would have been fortunate to get anything higher than the high 30% range against Jim. Yet people, including yourself, thought she had the ability to win the seat once Greenwood announced he was leaving. An opportunity...certainly better than what she had against Jim...depending on who fawkes ran...rumor was for years that he wanted an arch conservative to run...(Greenwood in the seat wasn't what he wanted in the first place)... Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 30, 2005, 09:52:56 PM Well Schrader was supposed to be a sacrificial offering to Greenwood...She would have been fortunate to get anything higher than the high 30% range against Jim. Yet people, including yourself, thought she had the ability to win the seat once Greenwood announced he was leaving. An opportunity...certainly better than what she had against Jim...depending on who fawkes ran...rumor was for years that he wanted an arch conservative to run...(Greenwood in the seat wasn't what he wanted in the first place)... Well, you didn't just see an opporunity. I should have put that you seemed convinced that PA 8 would be a Dem pickup. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: bullmoose88 on May 30, 2005, 10:01:02 PM Would you mind finding some quotes from me...I need some egg on my face every once in a while...
probably some "the sky is falling hysteria"...I really wanted Tomlinson to be the guy...but Fitz has won county wide elections in the past...so I couldn't have been absolutely pessmistic...some yeah Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 30, 2005, 10:06:04 PM Would you mind finding some quotes from me...I need some egg on my face every once in a while... Well, I don't want to see egg on your face since you're my PA 8 pal on this forum but in this case, you don't know how happy I am that you were wrong. You say that it is likely a Dem pickup. I couldn't believe how many agreed with you. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=5866.msg156129#msg156129 Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: bullmoose88 on May 30, 2005, 10:13:52 PM Well...to be fair...I made the whole...D pickup statement before we knew who was going to run (and be the R nominee)...partly my fault for a "Dewey Defeats Truman" statement...but hardly a condemnation of Fitzpatrick's chances...(also based on an assumption that the Dems would pull a torrecelli and run someone that wasn't greenwood fodder)
if you notice down the page (I think less than a day later) I went to a toss up... then in a month or so that followed, I think I gave Fitz pretty good odds. Ah well...I voted for Mike...and will so again, unless things change drastically. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 30, 2005, 10:16:04 PM Ah well...I voted for Mike...and will so again, unless things change drastically. And that's all that matters! :) Now we just need you to support Santorum and everything will be fine. ;) Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: bullmoose88 on May 30, 2005, 10:22:41 PM Ah well...I voted for Mike...and will so again, unless things change drastically. And that's all that matters! :) Now we just need you to support Santorum and everything will be fine. ;) I'm still totally undecided on the senate race. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 30, 2005, 10:24:38 PM Ah well...I voted for Mike...and will so again, unless things change drastically. And that's all that matters! :) Now we just need you to support Santorum and everything will be fine. ;) I'm still totally undecided on the senate race. Two social conservatives. One is economically conservative, the other is not. Sounds like Santorum is right for you. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: bullmoose88 on May 30, 2005, 10:28:49 PM Ah well...I voted for Mike...and will so again, unless things change drastically. And that's all that matters! :) Now we just need you to support Santorum and everything will be fine. ;) I'm still totally undecided on the senate race. Two social conservatives. One is economically conservative, the other is not. Sounds like Santorum is right for you. Then again, I hold the Caseys in high esteem, am not crazy about Santorum...and theres always the LP option or write in. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: Keystone Phil on May 30, 2005, 10:30:28 PM Then again, I hold the Caseys in high esteem, am not crazy about Santorum...and theres always the LP option or write in. I like Casey, too. I'm always looking for people to vote for Santorum but I must admit that a Libertarian or other third party candidate will probably be closer to you. That actually helps Santorum in the SE so I don't mind all that much. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: bullmoose88 on May 30, 2005, 10:34:52 PM Then again, I hold the Caseys in high esteem, am not crazy about Santorum...and theres always the LP option or write in. I like Casey, too. I'm always looking for people to vote for Santorum but I must admit that a Libertarian or other third party candidate will probably be closer to you. That actually helps Santorum in the SE so I don't mind all that much. Though the fact that he basically dumped (Casey) the record number of PAers who voted for him for treasurer (myself included) kinda ticks me off. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: TeePee4Prez on May 31, 2005, 01:48:44 AM Patrick Murphy...more democratic cannonfodder in PA 8... The Bucks County Democratic Party (indeed all PA 8 democrats) need to take a break from inserting their heads up their collective posteriors and run a candidate who can win...not some candidate they'd like to win. At least Fawkes and the county GOP have realized this notion. The last democrat in this seat was Peter Kostemeyer...a fiscally moderate, socially liberal (well moderately liberal...remember it was the 80s) A moderate conservative will beat a populist in PA 8 any day of the week. Unless Fitzpatrick has been secretely found to be eating small children and animals. Let them think they have a winner, throw tons of money in the race and end up losing elsewhere. :) Murphy will be better than Schrader though (not like that's hard to do...) The more I think about it, the more I think Pat Murphy doesn't have a chance. NARAL or PPSEPA won't put up a dime either. We probably need another Kostmayer type to run against Fitz. Say, I've read about his politics and mine are quite simlar. Think I could carpetbag? I will be 26. <joking> Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: bullmoose88 on May 31, 2005, 02:21:16 AM Patrick Murphy...more democratic cannonfodder in PA 8... The Bucks County Democratic Party (indeed all PA 8 democrats) need to take a break from inserting their heads up their collective posteriors and run a candidate who can win...not some candidate they'd like to win. At least Fawkes and the county GOP have realized this notion. The last democrat in this seat was Peter Kostemeyer...a fiscally moderate, socially liberal (well moderately liberal...remember it was the 80s) A moderate conservative will beat a populist in PA 8 any day of the week. Unless Fitzpatrick has been secretely found to be eating small children and animals. Let them think they have a winner, throw tons of money in the race and end up losing elsewhere. :) Murphy will be better than Schrader though (not like that's hard to do...) The more I think about it, the more I think Pat Murphy doesn't have a chance. NARAL or PPSEPA won't put up a dime either. We probably need another Kostmayer type to run against Fitz. Say, I've read about his politics and mine are quite simlar. Think I could carpetbag? I will be 26. <joking> :-p I will reiterate a previous statement...you better be born and raised in Bucks Co...to win this district :-p Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: TeePee4Prez on May 31, 2005, 07:47:48 AM Most of the people I know that live in Bucks were once from Philly, majority of those being the Northeast. Also, there is an influx of New Yorkers in the county as well. Not sure if that statement holds water, bullmoose.
Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: bullmoose88 on May 31, 2005, 11:39:08 PM Most of the people I know that live in Bucks were once from Philly, majority of those being the Northeast. Also, there is an influx of New Yorkers in the county as well. Not sure if that statement holds water, bullmoose. Pretty Fair Statement (property values in this county are going way up...even for total crap)--in terms of Bucks County growth in the last 2 or so decades. You gotta realize that these are people with enough money to get out...(which in one respect leans them towards the GOP) but are from urban areas which shoves em the other way. Lots of swing voters...not a bad thing. Still people who wanted out of Philly and NY and are wary of anything that advertises being from Philly, at first glance anyhow. Title: Re: PA Map (in my opinion) Post by: 12th Doctor on June 06, 2005, 12:59:15 AM Obviously never been to Clearfield County, have you?
Perhaps I should elaborate, while we do tend to lean stongly for the Republicans in national elections, the county council is made up of one liberal democrat, one moderate democrat and one conservative republican. Bud George, who represents the state house district that is basically just Clearfield County (minus DuBois) is a Left-of-center Democrat. The state rep who represents DuBois, Dan Surra, is a liberal Democrat. The top judge for the county is also a liberal democrat, while the associate judge is a Republican. Clearfield County also has two papers, the Clearfield Progress and the DuBois Courier, each have about equal circulation. The Progress is generally right-leaning in its editorial section, though they endorsed Clinton in 1992. The Courier is strongly anti-Bush and anti-Republican in its editorial section, the guy who owns it Denny Bonivito has expressed his hatred of Bush several times in public and in the paper. |