Talk Elections

NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of Iowa and NH:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-even-in-early-races-poll-finds-1452434581

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IA-Dems:


IA-GOP:


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NH-Dems:


NH-GOP:


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The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted Jan. 2-7. In Iowa, the poll measured 2,821 registered voters (+/- 1.8], 1,094 potential GOP caucus-goers (+/- 3.0%), 456 likely GOP caucus-goers (+/- 4.6%), 977 potential Democratic caucus-goers (+/- 3.1%) and 422 likely Dem caucus-goers (+/- 4.8%)

In New Hampshire, the poll measured 1,888 registered voters (+/- 2.3%), 887 potential GOP primary voters (+/- 3.3%), 569 likely GOP primary voters (+/- 4.1%), 690 potential Dem primary voters (+/- 3.7%) and 425 likely Dem primary voters (+/- 4.8%).

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/poll-neck-neck-2016-races-iowa-new-hampshire-n493361

Oh yeah, the chick's feeling the Bern soon ...

Three points is certainly something that can be overcome.

This will be fun :)

So I guess this keeps O'Malley in the debate. His team must be breathing a sigh of relief.

I guess it's a surprise Bernie is that close in Iowa. We'll see if the tables turn in the coming weeks.

Full results, including links to all the crosstabs:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/110-cruz-and-trump-vie-in-ia-trump-nh-favorite-clinton-and-sanders-competitive/

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The gender gap in IA is huge:

Men: 56-39 Sanders
Women: 56-35 Clinton

Also, the crosstabs suggest that if mostly old Democratic women are voting on caucus day, Clinton will easily win. Clinton leads among registered Dems 54-39 and among Olds 60-33.

If more younger, independent men are voting - Sanders could pull off a win. Sanders leads among Independents 62-29 and among young voters under 45 years of age by 64-29.

New Poll: Iowa President by Marist College on 2016-01-09 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920160109008)

Summary:

Clinton:	48%
Sanders:	45%
Other:	5%
Undecided:	2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll%20Iowa%20Annotated%20Questionnaire_January%202016.pdf)

Well my first guttural response is to say that this is a garbage poll, and that it's too good to be true, but at the same time this pollster is rated a B+ on 538 and was posted through MSNBC... I wish Fox did their poll so we would have something to compare this too, but as of now I just hope it's true and wait for another poll to come out.

The support probably comes from the fact that the most important issue to Democrats is "Job creation and economic growth" which tends to favor Sanders. It also has a very minimal breakdown (it only includes sex, not even age or race).

Also since last poll (for potential Democratic electorate):
Clinton — 49 (+2)
Sanders — 43 (+7)
O'Malley — 4 (+0)
Other — 1 (+0)
Undecided — 4 (-9)

Edit: the thread I posted this on (as well as the post above) were fused into this one. I think my points still make sense, but it may not fit the exact info because I did not see the above posts.

This race is just getting started! To all of those confident Clinton hacks start sweating. This is a tossup.

No one on Dem side is sweating, Sanders or Clinton will be nxt prez.

HAHA A 75 yr old socialist or a 69 yr old opportunist hated by half the country. Thanks for the options!

Try the socialist card all you want. If it's against Trump it won't matter.

What if it's against Cruz or Rubio? They both have this ability to appear much more moderate than they actually are.

The fact that either would beat most of the Republican field says something about the options on the GOP side.

Doubt it....Rubio has a chance in the primary chance but it's a very very small chance but i doubt he will win. Cruz is Trump lite, it would be easy to expose how right wing he is.

NBJ/WSJ is obviously just trying to stoke the horse race narrative. I certainly hope it is not a self fulfilling narrative.

There are a lot of pdf files.  While in New Hampshire the difference between registered and likely is within a point.  the difference in Iowa between registered is crazy.

link (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/IApolls/IA160102/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Iowa%20Adults%20and%20Registered%20Voters_Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_January%202016.pdf#page=1)

Registered Voters Iowa:
Trump 26
Cruz 24
Rubio 13
Carson 11
Paul 5
Bush 5
Huckabee 4
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Kasich 1

Carson might be recovering in Iowa a little bit which is bad news for Cruz in such a tight contest.

Well, at least this is good news for those of us hoping this race remains competitive until Super/Southern Tuesday, when our states vote.   

Good polls for Sanders.

Bernie down 3 points in Iowa ties for the best showing he's ever had in a poll without Biden.

In Iowa, who leads among…
participated in caucuses before: Cruz
never participated in caucuses before: Trump
Republicans: Cruz
Independents: Trump
conservative: Cruz
moderate: Trump
Tea Party supporters: Cruz
eastern cities: Cruz
east central: Trump
central: Cruz
Des Moines area: Cruz
west: Trump
income less than $50k: Trump
income more than $50k: Cruz
not college graduate: Trump
college graduate: Cruz
men: Cruz
women: Trump
married: Cruz
single: Trump
religious: Cruz
not religious: Trump

Wasn't your namesake 69 when he was first elected and 73 when he was re-elected?  Yeah, I think he was.

Wasn't your namesake 69 when he was first elected and 73 when he was re-elected?  Yeah, I think he was.

I don't think he'd appreciate your blatant ageism.

This is exactly how Reagan would respond.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoPu1UIBkBc

Shows his hackishness. A reason never to take him seriously.

He didn't come across that age. Besides, aren't you liberals all for youth and new and fresh? Oh that's right, you don't have anyone new and fresh because we gutted all your Congressional and State offices in those midterm elections ;)