Talk Elections

Bloomberg/DMR/Selzer poll of Iowa:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-14/bloomberg-politics-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-democrats-january-2016

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I was hoping for better news, but a tossup is still definitely an improvement from a few days ago.

God, Feb. 1st is gonna be intense on both sides.

Changes from the December poll:

Clinton -6
Sanders +1
O'Malley (no change)

fav/unfav % among Dems:

Sanders 89/6% for +83%
Clinton 86/12% for +74%
O’Malley 48/10% for +38%

Democratic voters prioritizing “issues” over “leadership”:

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Awesome! Nailbitter in both primarys in Iowa now. Will be fun Feb 1st.

So it's not so much that voters soured on Clinton (her favorables remain extremely strong too) but that some of the voters took a step back and want to reevaluate the candidates?

Perhaps. At least that's what this poll makes it look like.

This poll yes...other polls no.

Nice to see it so close from one of the three A+ rated pollsters.

The full PDF can be found here: http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rDjV3tUowo88

Some of the most interesting information:

This poll only included people who said they would definitely attend or probably attend the caucus, showing that Sanders' support will not evaporate come the time to actually vote. When asked if they would attend the caucus 63% of people said yes and only 37% said no. This is up from last month (48% yes, 52% no), and is the highest numbers that have been seen during all of the polls this election cycle.

Amongst those polled 3% said they attended a Republican caucus in the past, 61% said they attended a Democratic caucus, 9% said that they had attended both a Republican and Democratic caucus in the past (1% not sure). The shocker comes in with the number of first time caucus goers at 26%. Likely this helped boost support for Sanders, as his support tends to be younger. December showed a similar 25%, but the January numbers are the highest this election cycle.

Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 72-71 for combined first and second choice (O'Malley gets a combined 15%).

Amongst supporters for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, 70 percent of people said that they had made up their mind vs 30 percent who said they could still be persuaded (Clinton is actually 69-29). This is only a slight rise for Clinton, with a change from 64-35 the previous month, but Sanders has increased from 55-45. Both of these increased from mid forties in October. When you look at the overall Democratic Party, the numbers are 59-40.

There were no numbers for what the demographics polled were (age, sex, race, etc.) which is annoying.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/14/sanders-could-be-hurt-by-concentration-of-young-fans/78741864/

Bernie Sanders might slip in the Iowa caucuses' delegate tally because his support is relatively concentrated in college towns, the new Iowa Poll suggests. If a candidate’s supporters are concentrated in a few precincts, they could wind up translating into fewer delegates than if supporters were spread evenly across the state.

In 2008, caucuses were January 3 when students were still on vacation. This year, with the caucuses on Feb. 1 and the universities in session, students who want to go home for the caucuses could face missed classes and long drives on icy roads.

The delegate stuff is kinda meaningless for now. The media will only focus on what happens with the popular vote.

This is Iowa. There is no popular vote published, only delegate percentages.

A couple days ago I said Bernie wins IA and NH. Today I'm all the more certain of it. He has the momentum and the insurgent/grassroots candidates usually beat the polls in IA by 5-8 points.

Yeah like Howard Dean did.

New Poll: Iowa President by Selzer & Co on 2016-01-10 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920160110040)

Summary:

Clinton:	42%
Sanders:	40%
Other:	4%
Undecided:	14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6DRajTE36njM1NublZKWEh1Ylk/view)

So 3 counties account for 27% of his vote? He can't get more delegates that way.

http://time.com/4172793/hillary-clinton-iowa-caucus-bernie-sanders/

I found this contradictory article the other day... They are downplaying expectations, but if DMR is right about how concentrated Sanders support is, he's done. More inclined to listen to the Iowa Des Moines Register.

Ugh, I guess I forgot just how convoluted this caucus crap can get... makes me wish it was a good old fashioned, down-home primary instead.

So, is the popular vote made public later on, or is it all just kept behind closed doors?

It won't be made public. And the final delegate count for Iowa will be decided at the state convention in May.

Yeah but this isn't A poll. It's THE poll when it comes to Iowa.

The numbers reported on Caucus Night will be how many delegates won in all the precincts in Iowa's 99 counties. Then, the 99 counties will have conventions where the delegates elected on Caucus Night will elect county delegates, who will attend a state convention to select the delegates to the DNC. Their is no popular vote recorded, as every precinct simply reports the number of delegates elected via hotline directly to Des Moines, where it is then released to the media. If you are confused, well, welcome to the Iowa Caucuses!

God, I actually really like how the Republicans do it better.

How do they do it? Sorry for posting useless comments, but all this is news to me. Could you explain or send me to an article on the subject?

http://www.iowacaucus.biz/ia_caucus_howitworks.html

Hopefully Bernie's people can crack the caucus code like Obama's people did eight years ago. Fingers crossed.

Hopefully Bernie's people can crack the caucus code like Barry's did eight years ago. Fingers crossed.