Talk Elections

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/8214-poll-trump-barely-beats-clinton-head-to-head-in-utah

Trump 33%
Clinton 28%
Undecided 33%

Rubio 48%
Clinton 21%
Undecided 25%

Bush 47%
Clinton 22%
Undecided 27%

Carson 52%
Clinton 23%
Undecided 21%

Trump is so bad for this state. He'll still win though. Mia Love should probably be worried, though.

Could you imagine the swing and trend map here going from Romney to Trump? It would be the complete opposite of 2012.

Honestly, if Trump is the nominee, Mia Love will lose. With how much of a partisan footsoldier she is, how divisive she is herself, and how energized Doug Owens supporters will be, she'll have a really hard time holding on.

And yeah, Trump will win the state, though probably not by 72% to 25% like Romney did. I'm guessing something like 68-29, possibly 65-35 if Trump utterly sinks himself.

I predict a weak performance (by the usual standards for a Republican) in Utah should he be the GOP nominee -- and that is before I even mention what the LDS hierarchy will say about him. I would not be surprised to find the LDS hierarchy sending an "I'll show you!" message to a practitioner of multiple divorces and an owner of gambling casinos, both of which are contrary to Mormonism.

Even lackluster support for a Republican nominee by Mormons could put Arizona in play. The message will be clear: offend LDS sensibilities in a personal life, and lose.

Sanders would be interesting. Whether the "true Jews" as Mormons call themselves could vote for a Jew might be an interesting proposition. 

Yeah, it's probably be a similar margin to 2008.

Mormons are notoriously low energy, no?

It's more that Mormons are fairly pro-immigrant, and Trump's rhetoric against immigrants (and Muslims, for that matter) has been condemned by the LDS Church, as they feel it's similar to the rhetoric said when people were kicking the Mormons out of Missouri and Illinois.

Plus, Mormon voters don't tend to like obnoxious braggarts. It's less about Trump's personal life (I don't think most Mormons are aware about it or care), or the casinos, and more his braggart attitudes and anti-immigrant sentiment is disturbing to Mormons.

As for Sanders, most Mormons are not aware that he's Jewish, and considering his avowed socialism, I don't think him being Jewish will move the numbers in Utah one way or another. Mormons like Jews (though Jews don't like us), but Bernie's policy ideas are disturbing to the mainly conservative Mormons. Mormons consider themselves "of the House of Israel", which we also include modern Jews in.


Yes. We like polite, boring pols. I can't think of a single Utah politician with charisma.

Old poll from December and posted here already

Mormons don't like Trump.

This is purely anecdotal, of course, but my Mormon friends seem to really like Ben Carson, for some reason, even though Carson almost certainly believes that they're heathens and unbelievers.

I know a few Seventh Day Adventists and they all act something like the stereotypical Mormon. I have no familiarity with the theological details but it's not much of a stretch to think that members of two American religious sects that A) have their roots in the Second Great Awakening and B) are generally seen as a bit strange by outsiders would have a lot of things in common.

Well, there's cultural similarities as Averroes has said, plus Ben Carson is the most soft-spoken Republican running, and that appeals to soft-spoken/passive-aggressive Mormons.

The ones I know [well I mean that haven't become Berkelified yet anyway] are mostly Rubio people.

We Mormons like immigrants or immigrant backgrounds [what else did you expect from a church which sends most of it's young adults across the world?], we love the respectfully authoritative, educated sounding, and we love the calm and polite...and Rubio and Carson fill out some of these voids.

And the Utahn branch seem to have a special hate against the Clintons, even considering the anti-D bias.

But that hate for the Clintons has competition when stacked with Trump's bragging, anti-immigration, appeals to ignorance,...and yeah the many divorces and casinos certainly do not help.

I reckon the only thing keep Trump at even those numbers is the R. Switch that to a D or I...and even Hilldawg would be beating him.

Mormons have long yearned for a black Republican president, as evidenced by the fact that Keyes did better in Utah back in 2000 than any other state.

huh

i never thought about this but mormon missionary tradition has got to play a role in driving the animosity against trump. it's hard to embrace "jingoism" or nativist rhetoric when you speak another language and have formed life-long connections with people from thailand or brazil or kenya.

my other hot take is the more traditional the republican constituency, the less likely it is to back trump. mormon republicanism isn't about ideology so much as it's a default identification that comes with being born to "lds" parents. as a result, there are many mormon moderates who always vote straight-r or close to it. because trump is so offensive to these mormons, they have a higher propensity to vote for hillary, especially if it becomes a community-wide trend.

other communities where this is the case:
-cubans
-vietnamese
-the dakotas, maybe extending south to nebraska or kansas and eastern iowa.
-parts of indiana

Uh, Lief already explained why Mormen support Rubio. It's not because lisping Marco sounds "authoritative" or "calm" or whatever nonsense MormDem said. It's because Rubio is a closet Morman and represents their latest craven bid at fulfilling the White Horse Prophecy.

I can't wait to see Trump lose Utah and miraculously win Nevada thanks to the wonderful employees at the Trump International Hotel - Las Vegas.

Even without Nevada, TRUMP has 269 fierwall if he wins CO, FL, OH, PA, NH. Don't count him out in IA, VA, NJ, NY, UT, NV, AZ, NM, MI either, but I don't want to depend on the energy levels in some of those places.

Correct.  They can't drink coffee.

Anecdotal, but my dad was raised as a Seventh Day Adventist. I'd say that there's definitely something between the two groups, maybe the points that you said, maybe not. I don't have much experience with them. I do know that my dad has some cousins that converted to Mormonism and others that have said that if they had to leave Seventh Day Adventism (not sure why) that they would become Mormons.

Dude, don't try to tell actual Mormons that you know how Mormons think better than they do.

Also what's with the misspellings of "Mormon"? It's not hard, there's two "O"s.

Hey, more energy tonight, I like that.

Excellent news. Hillary conquering Utah has now made the Clinton vs. Trump electoral map into a win for her rather than a tie!

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No way The Donald wins NY. Just impossible.

Dick Morris, is that you?