Talk Elections

Welcome once again to my quadrennial delegate-tracking thread (2012 R (http://bit.ly/1X59Ig5), 2008 D (http://bit.ly/1X59LZu)).

In this thread, I'll also give state-by-state summaries of the delegate allocation process, along with the derivation of the results for each state once they've voted.

I will be tracking both the Republican side (in this post) and the Democratic one (in the next post).

Delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention

State	Trump	Cruz	Kasich	Other	Unpledged	Total
Iowa (http://bit.ly/1W80wYb)	7	8	1	14	-	30
New Hampshire (http://bit.ly/1TKgzxT)	11	3	0+4	-	5	23
South Carolina (http://bit.ly/1RzlFGR)	50	-	-	-	-	50
Nevada (http://bit.ly/1U35DuN)	14	6	1	9	-	30
Alabama (http://bit.ly/1Wa3k7k)	36	13	-	-	1	50
Alaska (http://bit.ly/1P0qpn2)	11	12	-	5	-	28
Arkansas (http://bit.ly/220FIsD)	16	15	-	9	-	40
Georgia (http://bit.ly/1LRZuiu)	42	18	-	16	-	76
Massachusetts (http://bit.ly/1R8cVxi)	22	4	8	8	-	42
Minnesota (http://bit.ly/24RBPoJ)	8	13+5	-	-	12	38
Oklahoma (http://bit.ly/1R8cW4k)	13+1	15+3	-	-	12	43
Tennessee (http://bit.ly/1RRSBx1)	33	16	-	9	-	58
Texas (http://bit.ly/1TMz7Oe)	48	104	-	3	-	155
Vermont (http://bit.ly/1YyFinR)	8	-	-	-	8	16
Virginia (http://bit.ly/1P0qwPB)	17	8	5	19	-	49
Kansas (http://bit.ly/1Lj6Vzi)	9	24	1	6	-	40
Kentucky (http://bit.ly/1QUgSQx)	17	15	7	7	-	46
Louisiana (http://bit.ly/1nFwwHh)	18	18+2	-	-	8	46
Maine (http://bit.ly/1RGf6lV)	9	12	2	-	-	23
Puerto Rico (http://bit.ly/1QP7wsT)	-	-	-	23	-	23
Hawaii (http://bit.ly/1WhnH2u)	11	7	-	1	-	19
Idaho (http://bit.ly/1U8DORX)	12	20	-	-	-	32
Michigan (http://bit.ly/1QUh1n7)	25	17	17	-	-	59
Mississippi (http://bit.ly/1pfy1Nt)	25	15	-	-	-	40
Virgin Islands (http://bit.ly/1pfy23T)*	-	-	-	-	9	9
D.C. (http://bit.ly/1TMVBhx)	-	-	9	10	-	19
Guam (http://bit.ly/22j2ADK)	-	0+1	-	-	8	9
Wyoming (http://bit.ly/1UxT75x)	1	23+2	-	-	3	29
Florida (http://bit.ly/1RNccvO)	99	-	-	-	-	99
Illinois (http://bit.ly/1LpHFYd)	54	9	6	-	-	69
Missouri (http://bit.ly/1pKrP0r)	37	15	-	-	-	52
North Carolina (http://bit.ly/1WppouG)	29	27	9	7	-	72
Northern Marianas (http://bit.ly/253s9HW)	9	-	-	-	-	9
Ohio (http://bit.ly/1S3eoSu)	-	-	66	-	-	66
American Samoa (http://bit.ly/1pQq9m8)	0+2	0+1	-	-	6	9
Arizona (http://bit.ly/1PgdRba)	58	-	-	-	-	58
Utah (http://bit.ly/1psGZH9)	-	40	-	-	-	40
Colorado (http://bit.ly/258MiMI)	-	30+4	-	-	3	37
North Dakota (http://bit.ly/1nUkc66)	0+1	0+17	-	-	11	28
Wisconsin (http://bit.ly/258Mf3u)	6	36	-	-	-	42
New York (http://bit.ly/1UaDOkT)	90	-	5	-	-	95
Connecticut (http://bit.ly/21z8WcK)	28	-	-	-	-	28
Delaware (http://bit.ly/1R4hZ2B)	16	-	-	-	-	16
Maryland (http://bit.ly/1RoUjsT)	38	-	-	-	-	38
Pennsylvania (http://bit.ly/1RqPlpo)	17+40	0+3	0+1	-	10	71
Rhode Island (http://bit.ly/1S88Ki5)	12	2	5	-	-	19
Indiana (http://bit.ly/1TTQxYP)	57	-	-	-	-	57
Hard Total	1013	545	142	146	181	2027
Unpledged	44	38	5	-	93	181
Soft Total	1057	583	147	146	94	2027
Future States					445

Notes

The Republicans have a small number of unpledged delegates who are free to change their vote on the first ballot; these are indicated in the above counts by the + figures.  The Hard Totals only include pledged delegates; the Soft Totals include both pledged and unpledged delegates.  These unpledged delegates are tracked in detail here (Unbound Delegates tab). (http://bit.ly/1Si4vh3)

Other. The vast majority of these are Rubio delegates (tracked here (http://the-delegate-fight.tumblr.com/post/141395588419/rubios-delegates)), excepting:

• Ben Carson: Has 3 delegates in both Iowa and Virginia, and 1 delegate in North Carolina, that are still bound to him.  He has 2 delegates in Nevada, which he can choose to keep, release, or reallocate to Trump and Rubio.
• Other Dropouts: Paul, Bush, Fiorina, and Huckabee have a delegate each bound to them in Iowa.  Bush's 3 NH delegates are still bound.

Uncertainties:

• Georgia: Interpretation of the delegate rules is unclear; potentially, Trump could gain 1 delegate each from Rubio and Cruz. CNN agrees with my count.
• *Virgin Islands: There's a credentials fight here, with the original slate 6 Uncommitted competing with a slate of 2 Uncommitted, 2 Rubio, 1 Trump, and 1 Cruz.  Separately, 3 delegates of the original slate are subject to a residency challenge in the courts, and could be replaced with 2 Uncommitted and 1 Rubio delegate.

Kasich will not qualify under Rule 40 (http://bit.ly/1L9w9QC) as it currently stands; this releases his delegates in Vermont.  He has also now (5/4) suspended his campaign, releasing his MI delegates.

Cruz has suspended his campaign; see discussion here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5052970#msg5052970) for the effect on pledged delegate counts.  It also obviously has an effect his unpledged count, as well.

Recent Updates

5/3: Indiana results added. [Final update of the season; see the spreadsheet (http://bit.ly/1Si4vh3) for further updates.]
4/29: Rhode Island results updated.
4/27: CT/DE/MD/PA/RI results added.
4/19: New York results added.

Unpledged delegates last updated 4/29.

The Upcoming Calendar:
May 7: Minnesota District Conventions (from April 22).
May 10: Nebraska (http://bit.ly/1WvN809), West Virginia (http://bit.ly/1MefWde) Primaries.
May 14: Oklahoma State Convention (from May 13).
May 15: Nevada State Convention (from May 14).
May 17: Oregon Primary (http://bit.ly/22rHkZp)
May 21: Minnesota State Convention (from May 20).  Vermont State Convention.
May 24: Washington Primary (http://bit.ly/1psHkd6)
June 7: California (http://bit.ly/1XAcWsb), Montana (http://bit.ly/1pyqbPS), New Jersey (http://bit.ly/1Umj4pQ), New Mexico (http://bit.ly/1Z9g7IL), South Dakota (http://bit.ly/1PgeFgd) Primaries.
July 18: Republican National Convention begins.

Delegate Selection Calendar (http://the-delegate-fight.tumblr.com/post/142876066839/gop-delegate-selection-calendar)

Useful Links:
The Delegate Fight on tumblr (http://the-delegate-fight.tumblr.com)
The Delegate Fight Spreadsheet (http://bit.ly/1Si4vh3)
Rules of the RNC (http://bit.ly/1p9jSBY) (there may be a newer version)
Call of the 2016 Republican Convention (http://bit.ly/21fEOD1)
Frontloading HQ Executive Summary (http://bit.ly/1OMRie0)
Mr. Morden's Calendar and Delegate Allocation Megathread (http://bit.ly/1U5cHWG)
GOP Presidential Nominating Process Book (http://bit.ly/1UL4iIH)

Delegates to the 2016 Democratic National Convention

State	Clinton	Sanders	S-Clinton	S-Sanders	Uncommitted	Total
Iowa* (http://bit.ly/23LPhZU)	23	21	7	-	2	52
New Hampshire (http://bit.ly/1p54pBX)	9	15	6	-	2	32
Nevada* (http://bit.ly/22AooG3)	18	17	4	1	3	43
South Carolina (http://bit.ly/1W4Fuvu)	39	14	5	-	1	43
Alabama (http://bit.ly/1XA8Gt8)	44	9	4	-	3	60
American Samoa (http://bit.ly/1XA8Gt8)	4	2	4	1	-	11
Arkansas (http://bit.ly/1XA8Gt8)	22	10	5	-	-	37
Colorado (http://bit.ly/1V7wtTs)	25	41	10	-	2	78
Georgia (http://bit.ly/1XA8Gt8)	73	29	12	-	3	117
Massachusetts (http://bit.ly/1XA8Gt8)	46	45	18	1	6	116
Minnesota (http://bit.ly/1XA8Gt8)	31	46	12	3	1	93
Oklahoma (http://bit.ly/1qvz7p4)	17	21	1	1	2	42
Tennessee (http://bit.ly/1qvz7p4)	44	23	6	-	2	75
Texas (http://bit.ly/1qvz7p4)	147	75	21	-	8	251
Vermont (http://bit.ly/1qvz7p4)	-	16	4	6	-	26
Virginia (http://bit.ly/1qvz7p4)	62	33	13	-	1	109
Kansas (http://bit.ly/1WwyeZH)	10	23	1	-	3	37
Louisiana (http://bit.ly/1WwyeZH)	37	14	7	-	1	59
Nebraska (http://bit.ly/1WwyeZH)	10	15	3	-	2	30
Maine (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4941241#msg4941241)*	9	16	3	1	1	30
Michigan (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4941264#msg4941264)	63	67	11	-	6	147
Mississippi (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4941264#msg4941264)	31	5	3	2	-	41
Northern Marianas (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4949887#msg4949887)	4	2	5	-	-	11
Florida (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4949931#msg4949931)	141	73	23	2	7	246
Illinois (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4949931#msg4949931)	79	77	23	1	2	182
Missouri (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4949931#msg4949931)	36	35	13	-	-	84
North Carolina (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4949931#msg4949931)	60	47	10	1	3	121
Ohio (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4949931#msg4949931)	81	62	14	1	2	160
Democrats Abroad (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4941264#msg4941264)	4	9	2	1	1	17
Arizona (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4960664#msg4960664)	42	33	5	2	3	85
Idaho (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4960664#msg4960664)*	5	18	1	2	1	27
Utah (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4960664#msg4960664)	6	27	2	2	-	37
Alaska* (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4969347#msg4969347)	3	13	1	1	2	20
Hawaii (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4969347#msg4969347)	8	17	6	1	3	35
Washington (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4969347#msg4969347)	27	74	10	-	7	118
Wisconsin (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4986079#msg4986079)	38	48	7	1	2	96
Wyoming* (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4995054#msg4995054)	7	7	4	-	-	18
New York (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5011031#msg5011031)	139	108	40	-	4	291
Connecticut (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5021157#msg5021157)	28	27	15	-	1	71
Delaware (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5021157#msg5021157)	12	9	7	-	3	31
Maryland (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5021157#msg5021157)	61	34	16	1	6	118
Pennsylvania (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5021157#msg5021157)	106	83	21	-	-	210
Rhode Island (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5021157#msg5021157)	11	13	9	-	-	33
Indiana (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024205#msg5024205)	39	44	7	-	2	92
Hard Subtotal	1701	1417	402	33	95	3648
Soft Subtotal	2103	1450			95	3648
Future States			125	8	985	1118
Hard Total	1701	1417	527	41	1080	4766
Soft Total	2228	1458			1080	4766

Notes:

The S-Clinton and S-Sanders columns denote superdelegates who have publicly agreed to support Clinton and Sanders, respectively.

* These are caucus/convention states that have not yet finished their processes (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5026043#msg5026043), so the final delegate totals could still be subject to change.  Of special note:

• Iowa: The race for statewide leader here is exceptionally close, with Clinton currently at 704 out of 1406.  If one state delegate flips (or two fail to show), or there's a credentials challenge for the Polk County delegation, one national delegate could flip from Clinton to Sanders.
  

Some results by CD in MD, PA, and IN are still preliminary.

Recent Updates

5/3: Indiana results added.  [Final update of the season; see the spreadsheet (http://bit.ly/1Si4vh3) for further updates.]
4/27: CT/DE/MD/PA/RI results added.
4/19: New York results added.

Superdelegates last updated 4/29 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4870009#msg4870009).

The Upcoming Calendar:
May 7: Guam Caucus (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024212#msg5024212).  Maine State Convention ends.
May 10: West Virginia Primary (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024227#msg5024227)
May 15: Alaska, Nevada State Conventions end.
May 17: Kentucky, Oregon Primaries. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024243#msg5024243)
May 28: Wyoming State Convention.
June 4: Virgin Islands Caucus (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024253#msg5024253)
June 5: Puerto Rico Primary (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024262#msg5024262)
June 7: California, Montana*, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota* Primaries. North Dakota* Caucus. (http://bit.ly/1Scn0EE)
June 14: District of Columbia Primary (http://bit.ly/1NtC6n2)
June 18: Idaho, Iowa State Conventions.
July 25: Democratic National Convention begins.

* These states are part of a "regional cluster," and receive a 15% delegate bonus.

Useful Links
The Delegate Fight Spreadsheet (http://bit.ly/1Si4vh3)
Charter of the Democratic Party (http://s3.amazonaws.com/uploads.democrats.org/Downloads/DNC_Charter__Bylaws_9.17.15.pdf)
Call to the 2016 Convention (outdated) (http://demrulz.org/?dl_id=366)
The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D)
Frontloading HQ (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2016-democratic-delegate-allocation.html)
DNC Table of Delegates (https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/images/c/ce/Appendix_B_-_Allocation_Chart_1.29.16.pdf.pdf)

Iowa (R): February 1

Overview
30 Delegates (1.21% of Total)
Closed Caucus (Binding)
30 At-Large, Proportional (no threshold)

Voter Eligibility
Only registered Republicans may caucus, though one may register as a Republican at the caucus.  

Delegate Allocation

At each caucus, delegates are chosen to the County Convention.  A presidential preference vote is also held.  In previous years, the former was the key first stage for the selection of Iowa’s delegates to the National Convention, while the latter was what the media reported: the candidate who won the most votes in the presidential preference vote is who “won” the caucus.

In 2016, only the presidential preference vote matters (assuming the convention does not go beyond the first ballot).  The Iowa delegation will be bound by the results of the presidential preference vote taken at the caucus, with each candidate receiving a number of delegates proportional to their vote share.  There is no threshold at all; rounding is done to the nearest whole delegate, while rounding errors are compensated for by giving (or taking) a delegate from the candidates who were closest to (or furthest from) receiving an additional delegate.

It seems that Iowa’s 3 Party Leader delegates will also be bound by the results of the caucus, though The Green Papers disagrees on this point.

Example: 2012 Results

Santorum	(24.61%)	7 delegates
Romney	(24.58%)	7
Paul	(21.47%)	7
Gingrich	(13.33%)	4
Perry	(10.36%)	3
Bachmann	(4.99%)	2

Bachmann and Paul both gained a delegate from rounding errors.  Compare this to my initial projection in 2012 under the old system, which (out of a total of 25 delegates) gave 10 each to Santorum and Romney, 5 to Paul, and none to anyone else.  For a starker comparison (and the reason the system was changed), note that the floor vote at the convention gave 22 to Ron Paul and 6 to Mitt Romney due to Paulista shenanigans.

Delegate Selection

The delegates are chosen by the State Convention (May 21) and by Congressional District Caucuses (April 9); delegates to each of those are chosen at County Conventions on March 12, while delegates to County Conventions are chosen at the March 1 caucuses.

Deadlocked Convention / Withdrawn Candidates

Delegates whose candidates withdraw or are not placed in nomination are explicitly not reallocated among other candidates.  Neither are they released, it seems, so they would presumably have to abstain.


There might be some wiggle room here (reading the provision as an anti-reallocation rather than an anti-releasing measure), but it doesn't seem like it.

All of Iowa’s delegates are bound only for the first ballot.  In the unlikely event of multiple ballots, they will be free to vote their conscience.  

Results

Candidate	Percent	Delegates
Cruz	27.65%	8
Trump	24.31%	7
Rubio	23.09%	7
Carson	9.31%	3
Paul	4.54%	1
Bush	2.80%	1
Fiorina	1.86%	1
Kasich	1.86%	1
Huckabee	1.79%	1
Christie	1.75%	0
Santorum	0.95%	0
Others	0.07%	0

Christie is denied a delegate due to rounding errors.  Huckabee, Paul, and Fiorina keep their delegates through the first ballot despite suspending their campaigns.

Useful Links

Iowa GOP Constitution (https://www.iowagop.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/RPI-Constitution-Revised-2010.pdf)
Frontloading HQ: Iowa (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/10/2016-republican-delegate-allocation-iowa.html)
The Green Papers: Iowa (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/IA-R#0201)
Republican Party of Iowa Bylaws (http://www.scribd.com/doc/277241899/Republican-Party-of-Iowa-Bylaws-Updated-6-27-2015)
Rules of the RNC (https://s3.amazonaws.com/prod-static-ngop-pbl/docs/Rules_of_the_Republican+Party_FINAL_S14090314.pdf)

The following seems like a good article to mention in this thread, because it takes a stab at what several candidates should aim for in terms of delegate numbers:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/beware-a-gop-calendar-front-loaded-with-states-friendly-to-trump-and-cruz/

For superdelegates:

3 Iowa superdelegates (Jan Bauer, Linda Langston, Dave Loebsack) are supporting Clinton.
6 New Hampshire superdelegates (Joanne Dowdell, Maggie Hassan, Ann Kuster, Billy Shaheen, Jeanne Shaheen, Kathy Sullivan) are supporting Clinton.
3 Nevada superdelegates (Ruben Kihuen, Andres Ramirez, Dina Titus) are supporting Clinton. One (Erin Bilbray) is supporting Sanders.
2 South Carolina superdelegates (Donald Fowler, Kaye Koonce) are supporting Clinton. One (Boyd Brown) is supporting O'Malley.

Thanks for the heads up!

Organizationally, I'm not sure what to do with the Democratic superdelegates.  In 2008 I kept track of them state-by-state as they voted.  This was a bone of some contention, as it tended to understate Clinton's support due to her (initial) advantage in superdelegates.

Any thoughts this time around?  In the main post, should I keep track of the superdelegates by state, have a separate superdelegates row, or some sort of hybrid scheme (e.g. adding a row for superdelegates in states yet to vote)?

Right now, if Wikipedia is to be believed, Clinton has an unsurprisingly overwhelming lead in the superdelegates, 338 for her to 11 for Sanders (and 3 for O'Malley), with 363 uncommitted.  An AP survey of all the superdelegates in November found an even larger advantage, with 359 (of the 579 they were able to contact) supporting Clinton.

For comparison, Clinton in 2008 never had the support of more than 292.5 superdelegates (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=70003.msg1579474#msg1579474), and that was after most of the states had voted.  Unlike in 2008, Clinton truly does have a safe (and huge!) buffer with superdelegates that Sanders is incredibly unlikely to make up in pledged delegates barring some catastrophe.

Iowa (D): February 1

Overview
52 Delegates (1.09% of Total)
Closed Caucus
15 At-Large (including 6 PLEO)
29 by CD
8 Superdelegates

At the Caucus

The Democratic Iowa caucus is a complicated beast.  Unlike on the Republican side, there's no straw poll, per se.  Each precinct caucus elects delegates to their local County Convention.  These delegates will be pledged to a particular candidate (or they can be officially Uncommitted, though this hasn't played a major role since the 70's).

Delegates to the county convention are allocated proportionally among the presidential candidates that meet a 15% threshold at the precinct (potentially higher for precincts entitled to fewer delegates).  Those attendees favoring candidates falling below the threshold may recaucus with another candidate instead; given the state of the race this is unlikely to have much of an effect beyond reallocating the few O'Malley voters.

What is reported to the media at the end of the night is the number of "state delegate equivalents" each candidate received.  Basically, this takes the number of County delegates each candidates receives and weights it by each county's representation at the State Convention.  It's unclear whether this takes into account the 15% viability threshold at the County Conventions, but this is unlikely to matter as O'Malley is unlikely to meet viability in many precincts in the first place.

County Conventions - March 12

The delegates elected at the caucuses now meet in each county.  Each county convention elects delegates to Congressional District and State Conventions, allocated proportionally among presidential candidates. The process is similar to the one at the caucus, including a 15% threshold.  Delegates are not bound to support who they supported at the precinct caucuses, so there may be room for some shenanigans here.  

District Conventions - April 30

Another round of conventions, same rules as before, in each Congressional District.  The more Democratic districts have more delegates, as follows:

CD 1 - 8 delegates
CD 2 - 8
CD 3 - 7
CD 4 - 6

State Convention - June 18

The State Convention chooses 9 At-Large and 6 Pledged PLEO delegates, in much the same fashion as the other conventions.

Superdelegates

Clinton (7):  Rep. David Loebsack (http://qctimes.com/news/local/government-and-politics/elections/loebsack-to-endorse-clinton/article_84aaa9cc-c529-50dc-b9fe-24bbda06a8a6.html),  Jan Bauer, Linda Langston (http://blog.4president.org/2016/2015/08/iowa-women-for-hillary-clinton-launches-in-all-99-counties.html), Mike Gronstal (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/1/31/1477827/-Iowa-Senate-Majority-Leader-Mike-Gronstal-Endorses-Hillary-Clinton-For-President), Vice Chair Danny Homan (http://iowastartingline.com/2016/01/22/labor-deploys-ground-forces-to-iowa-for-hillary/), Sandy Opstvedt (https://www.facebook.com/sandy.opstvedt/posts/10207235290376831), Scott Brennan (https://twitter.com/ScottBrennanIDP/status/692487752579944452)

Uncommitted (1): Chair Andy McGuire (Clinton 2008)

Results

Clinton 23 - Sanders 21

The closeness of the race means that Clinton and Sanders basically split the delegates.  The only two still up for grabs are 1 At-Large delegate and 1 delegate in CD 3.  CD 3 was Clinton's best district, so she wins the delegate there.  The remaining At-Large delegate I am also assigning for Clinton, though Sanders might be able to eke it out if he gets the support of 90% or more of the remaining O'Malley delegates.  A detailed discussion can be found here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4889384#msg48893844).

Useful Links
2016 Iowa Delegate Selection Plan (http://iowademocrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/2016-Delegate-Selection-Plan.pdf)
The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/IA-D)

Democratic Superdelegates

NOTE: This list is no longer being updated.

Clinton	499	69.8%
Sanders	41	5.7%
Uncommitted	175	24.5%

Recent Updates

4/20: Valerie McCall (OH) for Clinton.
4/19: Rep. Dan Lipinski (IL) for Sanders.
4/17: David Paterson (NY), supported Clinton, no longer a superdelegate.
4/15: Debra Haaland (NM) from Clinton to Uncommitted; Joni Gutierrez, Fred Harris (NM) to Clinton.
4/14: Heather Mizeur (MD) from Clinton to Sanders.
4/13: Sen. Jeff Merkley (OR) for Sanders.
4/9: Johnnie Patton (MS), Doug Pyle (HI) for Sanders; Bel Leong-Hong (MD) for Clinton.  Rep. Rick Nolan (MN) from Clinton to Sanders.
4/8: Rep. Ron Kind (WI) for Clinton.  David Bowen (WI) for Sanders.

Notes

About 15% of the delegates at the Democratic National Convention are the so-called "superdelegates" or "unpledged PLEOs": Democratic National Committee members, Democratic Congressmen, Senators, and Representatives, and a few former high-ranking Democrats.  There are 715 votes of these in total, and they are completely free to support whoever they want to, though more than half have also endorsed a candidate.  Some have alternates, but most do not; if they fail to show at the convention, there are just fewer delegates at Philadelphia.

I will also provide the sources for these endorsements, whether primary or secondary.

My accounting will not be free of errors nor completely up to date, so if you catch anything I'm missing, please let me know!

For the purposes of this accounting, an "endorsement" can be one of many things.  These include an official, press release style endorsement, an explicit endorsement on Twitter (retweets don't count), results of the AP superdelegate surveys, inclusion on a Clinton Leadership Team, appearance at a fundraiser for Hillary (or Ready for Hillary), or donating money to Hillary (or Ready for Hillary). Endorsements made on behalf of an organization they are the chair of also count. Endorsements (implicit or explicit) may be retracted, and this has happened on two occasions so far.  Supporting Clinton in 2008 is of course indicative, but does not count for these purposes.

A list of the elected officials who have not endorsed can be found here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=215428.msg4879672#msg4879672), and may be of some use.

There's also a Pelosi Club (see 2008) that will back the pledged delegate leader, currently consisting of Pat Leahy, Christine Pelosi, and Becca Doten; I've kept the first two in the Clinton camp, for now, as does the AP.

Democratic Superdelegates by State

State	Clinton	Sanders	Uncommitted
Iowa (http://bit.ly/23LPhZU)	7	-	1
New Hampshire     (http://bit.ly/1p54pBX)	6	-	2
Nevada (http://bit.ly/22AooG3)	4	1	3
South Carolina (http://bit.ly/1W4Fuvu)	4	-	2
Alabama (http://bit.ly/1XA8Gt8)	4	-	3
American Samoa (http://bit.ly/1XA8Gt8)	4	1	-
Arkansas (http://bit.ly/1XA8Gt8)	5	-	-
Colorado (http://bit.ly/1V7wtTs)	10	-	2
Georgia (http://bit.ly/1XA8Gt8)	11	-	4
Massachusetts (http://bit.ly/1XA8Gt8)	17	1	7
Minnesota (http://bit.ly/1XA8Gt8)	12	3	1
Oklahoma (http://bit.ly/1qvz7p4)	1	1	2
Tennessee (http://bit.ly/1qvz7p4)	6	-	2
Texas (http://bit.ly/1qvz7p4)	18	-	11
Vermont (http://bit.ly/1qvz7p4)	4	6	-
Virginia (http://bit.ly/1qvz7p4)	13	-	1
Kansas (http://bit.ly/1WwyeZH)	1	-	3
Louisiana (http://bit.ly/1WwyeZH)	7	-	1
Nebraska (http://bit.ly/1WwyeZH)	3	-	2
Maine (http://bit.ly/1SnOnRn)	3	1	1
Democrats Abroad   (http://bit.ly/1WztCSC)	2	1	1
Michigan (http://bit.ly/1WztCSC)	10	-	7
Mississippi (http://bit.ly/1WztCSC)	3	2	-
Northern Marianas (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4949887#msg4949887)	5	-	-
Florida (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4949931#msg4949931)	23	2	7
Illinois (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4949931#msg4949931)	22	1	3
Missouri (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4949931#msg4949931)	12	-	1
North Carolina (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4949931#msg4949931)	8	-	5
Ohio (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4949931#msg4949931)	14	1	2
Arizona (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4960664#msg4960664)	5	2	3
Idaho (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4960664#msg4960664)	1	2	1
Utah (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4960664#msg4960664)	2	2	-
Alaska (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4969347#msg4969347)	1	1	2
Hawaii (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4969347#msg4969347)	6	2	2
Washington (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4969347#msg4969347)	10	-	7
Wisconsin (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4986079#msg4986079)	6	1	3
Wyoming (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4995054#msg4995054)	4	-	-
New York (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5011031#msg5011031)	39	-	5
Connecticut (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5021157#msg5021157)	15	-	1
Delaware (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5021157#msg5021157)	7	-	3
Maryland (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5021157#msg5021157)	16	1	6
Pennsylvania (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5021157#msg5021157)	18	-	3
Rhode Island (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5021157#msg5021157)	9	-	-
Indiana (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024205#msg5024205)	7	-	2
Guam (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024212#msg5024212)	3	-	2
West Virginia (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024227#msg5024227)	5	1	2
Kentucky (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024243#msg5024243)	2	-	3
Oregon (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024243#msg5024243)	6	1	6
Virgin Islands (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024253#msg5024253)	2	1	2
Puerto Rico (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg5024262#msg5024262)	3	-	4
California (http://bit.ly/1Scn0EE)	51	-	22
Montana (http://bit.ly/1Scn0EE)	1	-	5
New Jersey (http://bit.ly/1Scn0EE)	9	2	5
New Mexico (http://bit.ly/1Scn0EE)	7	-	2
North Dakota (http://bit.ly/1Scn0EE)	1	1	3
South Dakota (http://bit.ly/1Scn0EE)	1	-	4
D.C. (http://bit.ly/1NtC6n2)	20	2	4
Unassigned (http://bit.ly/1NtC6n2)	-	-	2

Useful Links:
DNC List of Unpledged Delegates (https://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6070545/Unpledged_as_of_1.21.16.0.pdf) (as of 1/21: note also that it is not error-free)
Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Democratic_Party_superdelegates,_2016)
AP Delegate Tracker (https://interactives.ap.org/2016/delegate-tracker/)
Bloomberg Delegate Tracker (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/)
DNC Table of Delegates (https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/images/c/ce/Appendix_B_-_Allocation_Chart_1.29.16.pdf.pdf)

New Hampshire (R): February 9

Overview
23 Delegates (0.93% of total)
Half-Open Primary
23 At-Large, Proportional (10% threshold)

Voter Eligibility
Registered Republican and Independents may vote in the primary.

Delegate Allocation
20 delegates are allocated between among all candidates who receive at least 10% of the vote in the primary.  Each candidate receives a proportion of the delegates equal to the proportion of the statewide vote they received, with fractional delegates rounded to the nearest whole number.  Any remaining unallocated delegates are given to the winner of the primary.  Thus, if there are a large number of votes going to candidates who receive under 10% of the vote (as may happen early in the season with such a divided field), the winning candidate may receive a nice bonus to their delegate count.

Delegate Selection
By December 11, all candidates had to provide a list of delegates to the Secretary of State.  After the primary, the candidates choose which of these delegates they want to Cleveland, based on the results of the primary.


Deadlocked Convention / Withdrawn Candidates


What "withdraws" means is not very clear, but the delegate candidates also sign a pledge form:


As a result, I'm viewing this as another possible release trigger, and am releasing Bush's and Rubio's delegates accordingly.

Results

Candidate	Percent	Delegates
Trump	35.34%	11
Kasich	15.81%	4
Cruz	11.68%	3
Bush	11.02%	3
Rubio	10.57%	2

All other candidates fell well below the threshold.  The Secretary of State apparently believes that the allocation should be 10 Trump - 3 Rubio, claiming there should be an intermediate rounding step of the percentages.  The state GOP uses the (in my view) correct procedure, getting the above answer.  It is possible Rubio may challenge this, though his suspension makes this much less likely.

Delegates

Bush (3)
Judd Gregg - Kasich (http://blog.4president.org/2016/2016/02/governor-judd-gregg-endorses-john-kasich-for-president-.html)
Jennifer Horn (RNC)
James H. Adams

Cruz (3)
William O'Brien
Robert Clinton Smith
Juliana Bergeron (RNC)

Kasich (4)
Gordon J. Humphrey
Thomas D. Rath
John E. Sununu
Stephen Duprey (RNC)

Rubio (2)
James F. Merrill
Gordon J. MacDonald

Trump (11)
Alfred Baldasaro
Judy Baldasaro
Robert Burns
Frederick Doucette
Louis Gargiulo
Paula Johnson
Corey R. Lewandowski
Stephen Stepanek
Ellen Suprunowicz
Daniel Tamburello
Joshua Whitehouse

Useful Links
New Hampshire Title LXIII Section 659:93  (http://www.gencourt.state.nh.us/rsa/html/LXIII/659/659-93.htm)
The Green Papers: NH (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NH-R#0209)
Frontloading HQ: NH (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/10/2016-republican-delegate-allocation-new.html)
Results and Delegates (http://sos.nh.gov/2016PresPrimElectResults.aspx)

It should be noted that the process of nominating the Republican candidate for President has already started, apparently unnoticed by everyone.

On January 19, Republicans from eight Legislative Districts in Fargo (out of a total of 47 statewide) met and elected delegates to the State Convention (also to be held in Fargo, April 1-3).  We have no idea how they turned out.  The remaining 38 conventions will be held over the course of the next month, with the last no later than March 1.

North Dakota is having no straw poll this year, so the elections at the Legislative District Conventions are critical in the ultimate choice of North Dakota's delegation.  All 28 delegates from North Dakota will be officially unbound at Cleveland, though presumably presidential preference will be a major factor if the nomination is still contested as of early April.

As has been noted elsewhere, early voting has also begun for several of the early primary states, most notably South Carolina.

Awesome thread, should this not be stickied?

New Hampshire (D): February 9

Overview
32 Delegates (0.67% of total)
Half-Open Primary
5 At-Large
3 PLEO At-Large
16 by CD
8 Superdelegates

Voter Eligibility
Both registered Democrats and Independents may vote in the primary.

Summary
Delegates are allocated proportionally in each congressional district (8 in each) and At-Large (5 At-Large and 3 PLEO) among all candidates meeting a 15% threshold in that jurisdiction. Rounding is not specified, but democrats usually follow the largest remainder method among all candidates meeting the threshold.

Results

Sanders broke 56.25% of the two-way vote in both districts, thus winning the largest feasible number of delegates.

Jurisdiction	Clinton	Sanders
CD 1	3	5
CD 2	3	5
At Large	2	3
PLEO	1	2
Total	9	15

Superdelegates

Clinton (6): Gov. Maggie Hassan, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, Rep. Ann Kuster, Joanne Dowdell, Kathy Sullivan, William Shaheen (https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2015/07/21/tracking-endorsements-democratic-primary/wdsDi1gtSEXiTlVs7fQAFM/story.html)

Uncommitted (2): Chair Raymond Buckley, Vice Chair Martha Fuller Clark (Clinton 2008)

Useful Links
NH Delegate Selection Plan (http://nhdp.org/wp-content/uploads/NHDP-2016-Delegate-Selection-Plan.pdf)
The Green Papers: NH-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NH-D)

Do you think you could please provide a link to this info? :)

I found a calendar (http://www.ndgop.org/2016convention/2016convention-calendar/), which had been eluding me earlier.

Since then there have been conventions in Wahpeton (January 23) and Mandan (January 26).  There are four conventions today in Bismarck; two of them are in progress as we speak, with two more starting within the hour.

18 of the conventions are going to be held before the Iowa caucuses.

2 are held between Iowa and New Hampshire.

22 are held between New Hampshire and South Carolina.

2 are held between South Carolina and Nevada.

5 are held between Nevada and Super Tuesday, with the final convention at 3PM on February 28 in Bottineau, ND.

A picture of the first convention can be found on NDGOP's Facebook page (https://www.facebook.com/northdakotagop/photos/a.192379711527.157211.90160626527/10153912468761528/?type=3&theater).

(GOP Delegate Selection Calendar now tracked on the tumblr. (http://the-delegate-fight.tumblr.com/post/142876066839/gop-delegate-selection-calendar))

Post reserved.

Post reserved.

South Carolina (R): February 20

Overview
50 Delegates (2.02% of total)
Open Primary
29 At-Large (WTA)
21 District (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

All 29 At-Large delegates (including the three RNC members) will be bound to the winner of the statewide primary.

In each of South Carolina’s 7 Congressional Districts, 3 delegates will be bound to the winner of the primary in that district.

Delegate Selection

The delegates themselves are chosen by District Conventions in April and a State Convention in May.  Delegates to these are chosen at County Conventions in March.  Delegates to those County Conventions are generally chosen at Precinct meetings earlier in March.

Deadlocked Convention / Withdrawn Candidates

All delegates are bound only for the first ballot.  In the event the candidate to which any delegate is bound is not placed in nomination at the convention, they are instead bound to the second place (or, failing that, third place) candidate in their jurisdiction.  If none of the top three candidates in the jurisdiction are placed in nomination, the delegate is unbound.  These provisions are found in SC State GOP Rules; it is unclear whether the provision to award delegates to the second-place finisher, etc., conflict with national GOP rules, and, if so, whether the national GOP would enforce its supremacy.

Useful Links
SC GOP Rules (https://www.scgop.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/SCGOP-Rules-2015.pdf)
Frontloading HQ: SC (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/10/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_14.html)
The Green Papers: SC (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/SC-R#0220)

Nevada (D): February 20

Overview
43 Delegates (0.90% of total)
Closed Caucus
7 At-Large
6 PLEO At-Large
23 by CD
8 Superdelegates

Voter Eligibility
Only registered Democrats may vote in the caucus, though voters may reaffiliate as Democrats on the day.

At the Caucus

Nevada is a caucus state, just like Iowa, and it works in much the same fashion (though one distinction is that those who voted for viable candidates are not allowed to recaucus; this diminishes the possibility of weird tactical voting for Uncommitted).  Each precinct elects some number of delegates to a County Convention.  These are allocated among the candidates receiving 15% support in each precinct (or higher in precincts with a small number of delegates).  As in Iowa, voters supporting a candidate which does not meet the threshold may recaucus to support a different candidate.

The numbers reported to the media at the end of the day will be quite literally the number of delegates to County Conventions won by each candidate.  The apportionment favors the smaller, rural counties over the larger ones--i.e. Clark, Washoe, Carson City, Douglas, Lyon, Nye, and Elko will be slightly underrepresented, though they will obviously still dominate proceedings.  Extremely small precincts are also favored.

UPDATE: The district level delegates are awarded based on the vote at the caucus (5 in CD 1, 6 each in CDs 2-4)

County Conventions - April 2

Each county holds its own Convention.  This operates quite similarly to the caucuses, with a 15% viability threshold.  Delegates are free to re-caucus with a candidate different from the one they were elected to support in February, so there is some potential for shenanigans here.  Each county elects delegates to the State Convention.

State Convention - May 14

Another round of re-caucusing may occur here. 7 At-Large and 5 PLEO At-Large delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates meeting a 15% threshold from State Convention delegates in that jurisdiction.

Results (2/21):

Clinton won the state and CD 1, as well as breaking 58.33% in CD 4 to win 4 of the 6 delegates there.  The last one is the closest, but her lead seems secure barring shenanigans, even after two additional rounds of conventions.  This means the pledged delegate count out of Nevada is:

Clinton: 20
Sanders: 15

Update (4/3): Shenanigans did indeed occur, and Sanders picks up two delegates from Clinton in the At-Large pools.  New result:

Clinton: 18
Sanders: 17

Superdelegates

Clinton (4): Rep. Dina Titus, Ruben Kihuen, Andres Ramirez (http://www.ksl.com/index.php?nid=757&sid=37344472&title=nevada-dem-insiders-either-support-clinton-or-arent-saying), Sen. Harry Reid (http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/24/politics/hillary-clinton-harry-reid-endorsement/index.html)

Sanders (1): Erin Bilbray-Kohn (https://twitter.com/rindelsap/status/681535694595092480)

Uncommitted (3): Chair Roberta Lange, Vice Chair Chris Wicker, Artie Blanco

Useful Links
NV Delegate Selection Plan (http://nvdems.3cdn.net/efafb4788ed845d0d3_08m6i2zsp.pdf)
NV Delegates by County (http://nvdems.3cdn.net/e3b45d0e6364295a6f_pqm6bnx3g.pdf)
The Green Papers: NV-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NV-D)

Nevada (R): February 23

Overview
30 Delegates (1.21% of total)
Closed Caucus (Binding)
30 At-Large (Proportional, 3.33% threshold)

Delegate Allocation
Unlike at previous caucuses, all 30 delegates (including the RNC members) will be bound by the result of the Presidential Preference Poll taken at the Nevada caucuses.  Delegates are assigned proportionally, with rounding done to the nearest whole number, among those candidates who meet a 3.33% threshold.  Note that neither write-in nor “None of the Above” votes are considered valid, and thus will not affect the delegate allocation math.  Residual rounding errors are resolved by giving a delegate to (taking one from) the candidate closest to (furthest from) getting an additional delegate.


Delegate Selection
The delegates are chosen at a State Convention (probably in early May?); delegates at the State convention are chosen at County Conventions, whose delegates are chosen at the caucuses.  There are extensive rules for ensuring that the delegates elected at the state convention are allocated to their preferred candidate, as far as is possible.

Deadlocked Convention / Withdrawn Candidates
All delegates are bound only for the first ballot.  30 days prior to the state convention, the Secretary of the Nevada Republican Party contacts each candidate, asking them whether they want to keep their allotted delegates, release them, or reallocate them proportionally among the other candidates.  The candidates have until 10 days prior to the state convention to respond; if they fail to respond, they are considered to have released their delegates.  Any candidate who suspends or otherwise discontinues their campaign after the state convention will automatically release their delegates.


There may be some wiggle room for Rubio and Carson to keep their delegates, as they discontinued their campaigns before the State Convention, but I will be treating them as Uncommitted for the time being.

Results

Candidate	Percent*	Delegates
Trump	46.12%	14
Rubio	23.96%	7
Cruz	21.47%	6
Carson	4.83%	2
Kasich	3.62%	1

*among threshold-meeting candidates.

Carson edges out Cruz for the final delegate by only 20 votes.

Now that Carson has dropped out, he can choose to release his delegates, or have them bound to other candidates proportionally.  This latter option means that Trump and Cruz would each gain a delegate.  The same applies to Rubio; 5 of his would go to Trump and 2 to Cruz.  The default option is releasing them.

Useful Links
NV GOP Standing Rules (http://nevadagop.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Standing-Rules-Complete-Final-August-29-2015.pdf)
The Green Papers: NV-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NV-R#0223)
Frontloading HQ: NV (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/12/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_24.html)

South Carolina (D): February 27

Overview
59 Delegates (1.24% of total)
Open Primary
11 At-Large
7 PLEO At-Large
35 by CD
6 Superdelegates

Voter Eligibility
Any registered voter may participate, provided they did not participate in the previous week's Republican Presidential Primary.

Summary
Delegates are allocated proportionally in each congressional district (3 in CD 3; 4 in CD 4; 5 in CDs 1,2,5,7; 8 in CD 6) and At-Large (11 At-Large and 7 PLEO) among all candidates meeting a 15% threshold in that jurisdiction.

Results (2/27)

Clinton 39 - Sanders 14

Clinton's 73.8% victory in the two-way race means she wins the At-Large and PLEO delegates 13-5.  

Sanders' anemic vote totals were good for only 1 delegate in each of the CDs, except in CDs 1 and 2, where he got 34.5% and 30.6% of the vote, respectively, breaking the 30% level necessary for 2 delegates in each.  In CD 6, he pulled in 16.4%, above the 15% threshold.

Superdelegates

Clinton (5): Donald Fowler (http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/03/opinions/fowler-democratic-debates/), Vice-Chair Kaye Koonce (https://medium.com/@HillaryforSC/south-carolina-women-and-girls-for-hillary-a-few-of-the-south-carolina-women-and-girls-for-hillary-8055e3ab1747), Boyd Brown (http://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/2016/02/04/sc-democratic-superdelegate-former-omalley-chair-endorses-clinton/79828812/), Rep. Jim Clyburn (http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article61174112.html), Chair Jaime Harrison (https://twitter.com/jonallendc/status/703740506891620354)

Uncommitted (1): Gilda Cobb-Hunter

Useful Links
SC Delegate Selection Plan (http://scdp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/SCDP-2016-Delegation-Selection-Plan-8.27.15.pdf)
The Green Papers: SC-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/SC-D)

North Dakota (R): January 19 - April 3

Overview
28 Delegates (1.13% of total)
Closed Conventions (non-binding)
25 At-Large
3 RNC Members

Legislative District Conventions: January 19 - February 28

In each of North Dakota's 47 Legislative Districts, conventions are held to elect delegates to the State Convention.  These are being held over a span of several weeks, ranging from January 19 to February 28 (http://www.ndgop.org/2016convention/2016convention-calendar/).  No form of straw poll is being held, and there has been little reporting on these conventions, so we have no idea which candidate is doing well at these conventions, or even if candidate preference has been a major factor in the selection of delegates.

State Convention: April 1 - 3

At some point before the State Convention in Fargo, the Committee on Permanent Organization (http://www.ndgop.org/2016convention/2016convention-committees/) will accept applicants for delegates to the National Convention.  They will consider these applicants, and from them draw up a slate of 25 delegates, including automatically Gov. Jack Dalrymple, Sen. John Hoeven, and Rep. Kevin Cramer.  There's a vague formula that the Committee is instructed to use to select its slate; it can be found here. (https://www.ndgop.org/2016convention/2016convention-nationalconvention/)

At the convention itself, additional delegate candidates may have their name placed in nomination from the floor, though they must have originally applied to the Committee on Permanent Organization in order to be eligible.  A vote is then held on the convention floor, with each State delegate present entitled to vote for 25 National delegate candidates.  The top 25 finishers will go on to Cleveland.  For a good example as to how this actually works, see The Green Papers' report on the 2012 convention (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/ND-R).  Note the huge gap between #25 and #26, suggesting that the slate suggested by the Committee on Permanent organization was elected with little difficulty.

The preliminary agenda suggests the delegates to Cleveland will be chosen on April 2.

RNC Members (unbound)
Kelly Armstrong
Sandy Boehler
Curly Haugland

Delegates (elected April 3)

Rick Becker - Cruz
Jack Dalrymple (Governor)
Wayne Stenehjem (Attorney General) - staying neutral
Shane Goettle - Cruz
Jim Poolman   Cruz
Bette Grande   Cruz
Dick Dever    - on Cruz slate (unwillingly), prefers Kasich but undecided.
Wesley Belter   Cruz
David Hogue   Cruz
Jessica Unruh   Cruz
Betsy Dalrymple (First Lady)
Ben Koppelman   Cruz
Mark Owens   Cruz
Gary Emineth - leans Trump   
Janna Myrdal   Cruz
Roscoe Streyle   Cruz
John Trandem   Cruz
Clare Carlson   Cruz
Scott Louser   Cruz
John Olson   
Daniel Traynor   Cruz
James Kerian   Cruz
Judy Estenson   Cruz
Kelly Schmidt (State Treasurer) - leans Cruz
Bob Wefald   

Deadlocked Convention / Withdrawn Candidates

All delegates are entirely unbound, though they may well express a preference at the State Convention.

Useful Links
ND GOP Rules (http://www.ndgop.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NDGOP-State-Party-and-Convention-Rules-June-2015.pdf)
Frontloading HQ: ND (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/01/2016-republican-delegate-allocation.html)
The Green Papers: ND-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/ND-R)

Republicans

Candidate	Percent	Delegates
Cruz	27.64%	8
Trump	24.30%	7
Rubio	23.12%	7
Carson	9.30%	3
Paul	4.54%	1
Bush	2.80%	1
Fiorina	1.86%	1
Kasich	1.86%	1
Huckabee	1.79%	1
Christie	1.76%	0
Santorum	0.95%	0
Other	0.07%	0

Bush, Fiorina, Kasich, and Huckabee all round up to 1 delegate.  Christie would as well, but his would be the 31st total delegate, so he is bumped.  Huckabee's leaving the race does not affect these results; his delegate officially remains bound to him through to Cleveland.

Results now certified by the Iowa GOP.
 (https://www.iowagop.org/2016/02/03/release-iowa-gop-certified-caucus-results/)
Democrats

Clinton 21 - Sanders 21 - Too Close to Call 2

This is an incredibly close race, and will require me digging through precinct-by-precinct results to make projections.  However, due to the closeness of the race, we expect Sanders and Clinton to split the delegates in any jurisdiction with an even number of delegates.  We can thus easily project 21 delegates for Clinton and 21 for Sanders, with the remaining 2 (1 statewide and 1 in CD 3) still up for grabs.  This will depend not only on the individual precinct results, but also on the dynamics of the County Conventions and the state conventions.  If some delegates don't show up to the next stage, that will make a difference.

Shouldn't 3 of 30 GOP IA delegates be party leaders?

It's unclear from both IA and National GOP rules whether those party leaders are also bound by the results of the caucuses.  This is a change from 2012 or other previous years, when they would clearly be unbound.

If only 27 delegates were bound by the caucus, then Cruz, Rubio, and Huckabee would each lose a delegate.

Frontloading HQ (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/10/2016-republican-delegate-allocation-iowa.html?platform=hootsuite) contacted the Iowa GOP, and they said they were allocating all 30.  (He gives another explanation on his Twitter (https://twitter.com/FHQ?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw)).

The appropriate section in the Iowa bylaws (http://www.scribd.com/doc/277241899/Republican-Party-of-Iowa-Bylaws-Updated-6-27-2015) is "The Iowa delegation to the Republican National Convention shall be bound on the first ballot to vote proportionally in accordance with the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses.... The Chairman of the Iowa delegation, or his or her designee, shall announce the vote of the delegation in accordance with this Article."  That does seem to imply that the whole delegation, including the 3 RNC members, are bound by the caucuses, though it's not ironclad.

Speaking of the GOP party leader delegates, will you be keeping track of their public endorsements (in states that don't bind them to the public vote) like you are for DNC superdelegates?

Per Wikipedia's endorsement page, Christie and Rubio have one each; Huckabee had one before dropping out (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016)

More detailed Iowa results:

Going through and analyzing the results on a county-by-county level, you get the following (approximate) results:

Clinton 703 - Sanders 696 - O'Malley 7

These numbers may strike some as odd.  O'Malley got essentially wiped out due to the 15% threshold; how is there any way he could get any delegates in the next round?

The answer is tactical voting.  In small counties that send only 3 or 5 delegates to the state convention, it may be worth it for one candidate to send supporters over to the O'Malley camp, raising him to viability and giving him a delegate at the expense of the other candidate.  (Note that I'm assuming that O'Malley needs to have at least one delegate at the county level for this to be relevant).  Do we really expect this to happen now that O'Malley is out of the race? Possibly.  Not all of Edwards' support flaked away after he dropped out in Iowa, though all of Biden's/Richardson's did.  O'Malley does seem more similar to the latter case...

If we don't expect this sort of tactical voting to happen, what then?  Let's say all the O'Malley delegates just stay home.  Sanders gets 2 of O'Malley's delegates to Clinton's 5, and Clinton wins the state:

Clinton 708 - Sanders 698

Let's think about another scenario.  In the best case scenario for Sanders, all of O'Malley's delegates vote for Sanders.  This not only makes a difference for a few counties where tactical voting may have been important, but also in some larger counties (like Polk) where O'Malley, who never had any hope of making viability, still has enough supporters to throw a delegate or two to Sanders.

The best case scenario here for Sanders is

Sanders 706 - Clinton 700

Note, however, that 6 of those delegates are the result of coin flips, which I'm assuming here for the sake of argument that Sanders sweeps.  However, if Clinton continues her luck and wins a majority of them, she wins the state.  These numbers also assume that all the O'Malley supporters actually show up and that they actually caucus entirely for Sanders, not really a reasonable assumption.  Clinton could do slightly worse than this number suggests if there's also some tactical voting, but this is pretty much Sanders' ceiling.

A more realistic, but still Sanders-favorable scenario, has him winning 85% of O'Malley supporters and splitting the coin tosses evenly.  In this case, the count is

Clinton 704 - O'Malley 702

There are only two counties requiring coin flips in this scenario, I've split them evenly.  Sanders would need to win both coin flips and another one at the convention itself in order to win the 23rd delegate.  12.5% chance of this, and if he loses any of the 4 delegates he's counting on to win with O'Malley support (in Crawford, Linn, Polk, and Jasper) Clinton still wins.  The highest bar to clear here is in Polk County (Des Moines), where he'd need to get around 82% of O'Malley's support to win.

Note that there are also still some clearly incomplete results: in Kossuth, Hancock, and Fremont counties at the very least.  Only Fremont could actually have a bearing on the results, as this is one of the counties where tactical voting is possible given the current results.  I'm also assuming a 3-2 split for Clinton among the tele-/satellite-caucus delegates, which seems likely but is not guaranteed.

TL;DR:  Clinton seems quite likely to have a slim plurality at the State Convention.  However, tactical voting, O'Malley supporters, differential turnout (i.e. people forgetting to show up to County Conventions), and even coin flips, could make a difference.

Sanders seems highly unlikely to win unless he gets the overwhelming majority (5/6ths or more) of O'Malley supporters and wins at least three coin flips.  As a result, I'm calling the 44th delegate for Clinton, though we may return to this after March 12.

This is a trickier beast.  Many states don't explicitly bind the RNC members, while others do.  There's also the open question of whether national GOP rules require them to be bound in states that have any sort of primary/straw poll.  Frontloading HQ suggests (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/12/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_16.html), from his conversations with the national GOP, that they should be, but how this is going to be enforced is another question.

As a result, I'm going to take a purely state-by-state approach, and not incorporate endorsements of these RNC members until after their states vote (if at all).

The only RNC members guaranteed to have freedom of conscience at Cleveland are those from states that are not holding any sort of public vote (CO, WY, ND, Virgin Islands, Guam, and American Samoa).

More Iowa Analysis

This afternoon, the Iowa Democratic Party released the complete (well, almost) precinct-level data, letting us do a proper county-by-county analysis.

The State Convention will have 1406 delegates present, so 704 is necessary for majority and control of the 44th delegate.

At present, we can project with near-certitude that Clinton and Sanders will get at least the following vote totals:

Clinton 699 - Sanders 690

There are a couple of caveats here; this assumes that attendance at the County Conventions is perfect (even if it isn't, there is a system of alternates in place), that none of the Sanders or Clinton delegates will switch sides before March 12, and that there's no "surprise" tactical voting (i.e. half of the Sanders delegation switching to "Uncommitted" and stealing a delegate from Clinton, when Clinton could prevent this by switching a greater number to "Uncommitted").

This leaves 17 delegates remaining, of which Clinton would only need 5 to secure a majority.  Let's break down these delegates by county.

Black Hawk County

County: Sanders 222 - Clinton 196 - O'Malley 1 - Uncommitted 1
State: Sanders 36 - Clinton 32 - Unallocated 1

Clinton could pick up that last delegate if both the O'Malley and Uncommitted delegates agree to support her.

Bremer County

County: Sanders 34 - Clinton 40 - O'Malley 1
State: Sanders 5 - Clinton 6 - Unallocated 1

Clinton could pick up that last delegate if the O'Malley delegate supports her.

Butler County

County: Sanders 35 - Clinton 25
State: Sanders 3 - Clinton 2 - Unallocated 1

This one's a coin flip.  Whoever wins gets the last delegate.

Crawford County

County: Sanders 25 - Clinton 27 - O'Malley 8
State: Clinton 2 - Sanders 2 - Unallocated 1

O'Malley's best county in the state, but he still falls one short of viability.  He could pick up the last delegate if any one delegate (presumably from the Sanders camp) switches.  Alternatively, the O'Malley supporters could recaucus and give the last delegate to either Clinton or Sanders.

Decatur County

County: Sanders 33 - Clinton 35 - O'Malley 1 - Uncommitted 1
State: Sanders 1 - Clinton 1 - Unallocated 1

If the O'Malley and Uncommitted delegates switch to Sanders, he can force a coin flip for the last delegate, which would otherwise go to Clinton.

Delaware County

County: 43 Sanders - 55 Clinton - 2 O'Malley
State: 3 Sanders - 4 Clinton - 1 Unallocated

Clinton picks up the last delegate if both O'Malley delegates support her.

Fremont County

County: Sanders 9 - Clinton 8 - O'Malley 1 - Unknown 2
State: Sanders 1 - Clinton 1 - Unallocated 1

No one showed up to the caucus in Riverton precinct, so its two delegates are treated as if they don't exist (http://www.nonpareilonline.com/news/local/caucus-sites-with-no-turnout-lose-county-delegates/article_18401a13-6aa6-569a-adfe-d713e3167ee4.html).  This means that the O'Malley supporter could force a coin flip by siding with Clinton; otherwise the delegate goes to Sanders.

Henry County

County: Sanders 55 - Clinton 55
State: Sanders 3 - Clinton 3 - Unallocated 1

This one's a coin flip.

Jackson County

County: Sanders 23 - Clinton 25 - O'Malley 2
State: Sanders 4 - Clinton 4 - Unallocated 1

If both O'Malley supporters side with Sanders, they could force a coin flip; otherwise Clinton wins the delegate.

Jasper County

County: Sanders 90 - Clinton 103 - O'Malley 7
State: Sanders 8 - Clinton 9 - Unallocated

If the O'Malley camp breaks strongly for Sanders (5-2 or more) he can pick up that last delegate; otherwise Clinton does.

Keokuk County

County: Sanders 14 - Clinton 25 - O'Malley 1
State: Sanders 1 - Clinton 2 - Unallocated 1

If the O'Malley delegate sides with Sanders, it would force a coin toss for the last delegate; otherwise Clinton wins it.

Linn County

County: Sanders 180 - Clinton 163 - O'Malley 1
State: Sanders 63 - Clinton 57 - Unallocated 1

If the O'Malley delegate sides with Sanders, they pick up the last delegate; otherwise Clinton does.

Marion County

County: Sanders 48 - Clinton 50 - O'Malley 2
State: Sanders 6 - Clinton 6 - Unallocated 1

If both O'Malley delegates side with Sanders, they could force a coin flip for the last delegate; otherwise Clinton wins it.

Monroe County

County: Sanders 29 - Clinton 28 - O'Malley 8
State: Sanders 1 - Clinton 1 - Unallocated 1

Any of the three candidates could pick up the last delegate, depending on tactical voting or lack thereof.

Polk County

County: Sanders 554 - Clinton 638 - O'Malley 8
State: Sanders 105 - Clinton 121 - Unallocated 2

The O'Malley supporters will decide where the last two delegates go.

Scott County

County: Sanders 139 - Clinton 135 - O'Malley 1
State: Sanders 41 - Clinton 40 - Unallocated 1

If the O'Malley delegate sides with Clinton, she wins the last delegate; otherwise Sanders does.


Precinct CR 1 in Kossuth County, Precinct 5 in Hancock County, and Competine Township in Wapello County also did not report, but cannot make a difference in the final outcome.

Analysis to follow.

It's possible that there were no Democratic caucus goers in those precincts.  They are rural, and there were barely any Republican votes tallied in all but Precinct 5 in Hancock County.  Only 5 Republican votes were tallied in CR 1, for example. 

In the Republican caucus, Indian Settlement in Tama County recorded no Republican votes according to the Microsoft map, which is also possible given how Native Americans tend to vote Democratic if they vote at all.

Iowa Analysis: What are Sanders' Chances?

As examined to death with exhaustive detail in the previous post, there are 17 state delegates still potentially up for grabs, if the few O'Malley and Uncommitted supporters at the County Conventions pick a side.  (If they don't pick a side, Clinton wins 708 - 698 ± 1).

Sanders needs to win 14 or more out of the 17 in order to win outright, or 13 to have it go to a coin flip.  So clearly, he needs to win a clear majority of the O'Malley / Uncommitted support.  How much, though?

I ran a few simulations to see what Sanders' probability of winning the 44th delegate are given varying probabilities of a given O'Malley/Uncommitted delegate defecting to Sanders--a value which we'll call p.  

I made a few assumptions here.  First, all O'Malley/Uncommitted delegates pick a side, rather than just refusing to re-caucus.  Second, the probability of each picking a side is independent of the others.  These are almost certainly not true, given that Sanders may try harder in some places than others, but it should give us a subjective feel for the problem.

p	Chance of Sanders Victory
50%	<0.1%
60%	0.4%
70%	3.2%
75%	8.0%
80%	16.8%
85%	30.0%
90%	46.3%
95%	64.1%
100%	77.3%

These are the most diehard O'Malley people we are talking about here.  I just don't think they break so overwhelmingly (90%+) to Sanders to give him the win.

As a result, I'm sticking with my initial call here, unless events on March 12 prove otherwise.  Keep an eye out for those 16 counties on March 12!

Alaska (R): March 1

Overview
28 Delegates (1.13% of total)
Closed Caucus (Binding)
28 At-Large (Proportional, 13% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

Delegates are bound according to the results of the Presidential Preference Poll held on March 1.  Like for the Democrats in Iowa and Nevada, the delegate results are based on State Delegate Equivalents (https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/710984307276382209), even though, in this case, the media reports the raw vote totals.  Essentially, the vote in each district is weighted by the Republican vote in 2014.  Delegates are allocated among all candidates receiving at least 13% of the state delegate equivalents in the poll, proportional to their share of the vote among candidates meeting the threshold.  Rounding is done to the nearest whole number of delegates.  Any rounding errors are given to the state winner, or taken away from the qualified candidate with the least number of votes, as appropriate.

Delegate Selection
Delegates are selected by the State Convention on April 28 - 30, the end of a caucus/convention process beginning on March 1.

Results (3/2)

Candidate	Percent	Delegates
Cruz	35.3%	12
Trump	33.3%	11
Rubio	15.7%	5

Rubio is considered to have "drop[ped] out" of the race, the above calculation is done with just Cruz and Trump, yielding

Cruz 14 - Trump 14

Note that the use of State Delegate Equivalents is crucial here; if it had been based off the raw vote, Cruz would have an additional delegate.

Withdrawal of Candidates / Brokered Convention

If a candidate drops out before the National Convention, their delegates are reallocated as if they had received no votes in the Presidential Preference Poll.  All delegates are bound on the first two ballots, as long as their candidate “maintains an active campaign.” After the second ballot, delegates bound to the candidate receiving the fewest votes on the previous ballot become unbound.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: AK (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/AK-R#0301)
Frontloading HQ: AK (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/11/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_12.html)
AK GOP Rules (http://www.alaskagop.org/party_rules)

Alabama (R): March 1

Overview
50 Delegates (2.02% of total)
Primary
29 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)
21 District (“Winner-Take-Most”)

Delegate Allocation
If any candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote in the primary, or is the only candidate to receive at least 20% of the vote, they receive all 29 At-Large delegates.  Otherwise, delegates are allocated among all candidates receiving at least 20% of the vote in the poll, proportional to their share of the vote among candidates meeting the threshold.  In the unlikely event no candidate receives 20% of the vote, delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates.

If any candidate receives a majority of the vote in a Congressional District, or is the only candidate to receive more than 20% of the vote, they receive all 3 delegates from that CD.  Otherwise, the winner receives two delegates and the runner-up receives one.  If no candidate receives 20% of the vote, the three delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates.

Rounding is always to the nearest whole number.  Any rounding errors are given to (or taken away from) the candidate with the most (or fewest) votes.  This “Alabama Method” of allocation and rounding is commonly used in many other states, as well.

Voters may also vote for “Uncommitted,” who is treated as a candidate for all allocation purposes.

Delegate Selection
The primary ballot also allows voters to vote on the actual delegates who will be sent to the National Convention.  Voters are only allowed to vote for delegates who correspond to the candidate (including “Uncommitted”) who they voted for in the Presidential Preference Poll.  Some candidates have incomplete slates of delegates; in the event a candidate is entitled to more delegates than he has on his slate, that slot will presumably be filled by an alternate delegate.  Such alternates are chosen by the Alabama Republican Executive Committee and must similarly pledge themselves to the candidate they are bound to support; they must also pay a $150 filing fee.

Withdrawal of Candidates / Brokered Convention
Delegates remain bound until the candidate releases them, unless two-thirds of a candidate’s Alabama delegates vote to release themselves.

Results (as of 3/2)

Rubio failed to meet the statewide threshold, so the At-Large delegates are apportioned 20 for Trump and 9 for Cruz.  Cruz fell about 325 votes short of an additional At-Large delegate.

Trump won all the Congressional Districts, as was the only candidate above threshold in CD 1 and CD 4, picking up 14 delegates.  Rubio was above threshold (and Cruz) in CD 5, picking up 1 delegate.  Cruz took second place and was above threshold in the remaining CDs, winning 4 delegates.

Trump	36
Cruz	13
Rubio	1

This count is in agreement with The Green Papers and FHQ.

In the case of Rubio, his 1 delegate is effectively released, as he can vote to release himself at any time.

Delegates

Trump (36)
[1] Jim Bonner
[2] Jim Carns
[3] Judy Carns
[4] Ed Henry
[5] Shaun McCutcheon (donated to Rubio in Jan. 2015)
[6] James Matthews
[7] Bob Baccus
[8] Perry O. Hooper
[9] Will Matthews
[10] Barry Moore
[11] Catherine Crosby Long
[12] James Henderson
[13] Chess Bedsole
[14] Dennis H. Beavers
[15] Chad Tucker
[16] Laura E. Payne
[17] W. Brent Woodall
[18] Frank H. Long, Jr.
[19] J. Holland (a presumably different Justin Holland donated to Cruz in Dec. 2015)
[20] Carmen Moore-Ziegler
[1-1] Frank Burt, Jr.
[1-2] Unfilled
[1-3] Trey Oliver
[2-1] Jeana Boggs
[2-2] Jeremy Adams
[3-1] Charles Whatley
[3-2] Kathleen Moore
[4-1] Bradley L. "Brad" Williams
[4-2] William R. Ingram
[4-3] Jesse David Ochocki
[5-1] Jim Peters
[5-2] Shannon Matthew Moore
[6-1] Joe Freeman
[6-2] Jef Freeman
[7-1] Teresa I. Beeker
[7-2] Chris Beeker III

Cruz (13)
[1] Tom Parker
[2] Chip Brown
[3] David Wilson
[4] Mo Brooks
[5] Chad Mathis
[6] Arnold Mooney
[7] Carla S. King
[8] David Pinkleton
[9] Sue Alexander
[2-1] Mike Holmes
[3-1] Tim Sprayberry
[6-1] Collin Luke
[7-1] Rich Wingo

Rubio (1)
[5-1] Dean Brandon

Note that this does not include the RNC members here; I would guess that Trump 19 & 20 and Cruz 9 are actually not delegates, but the AL GOP may have some leeway here.

Useful Links
AL GOP 2016 Presidential Preference Primary Resolution (http://algop.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/2016-Presidential-Preference-Primary-Resolution.pdf)
The Green Papers: AL (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/AL-R#0301)
Frontloading HQ: AL (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/11/2016-republican-delegate-allocation.html)
Delegate Ballot Results (http://www.alabamavotes.gov/electionnight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=3000100)
Delegate Candidates (http://algop.org/elections/2016-qualified-alabama-republican-candidates/2016-republican-national-convention-delegate/)

The recent revisions to the Iowa caucus results gives a slight boost to Sanders, as a victory in Marion County is now more plausible.

This updates the table in the post above to...

p	Chance of Sanders Victory
50%	<0.1%
60%	0.6%
65%	2.0%
70%	5.1%
75%	11.9%
80%	22.8%
85%	38.7%
90%	58.2%
95%	76.2%
100%	89.2%

This increases Sanders' chances if he's already getting a vast majority of the O'Malley delegates.  I honestly think Clinton will win this delegate, but rethinking my priors here, I'm not more than 90% certain that she will, especially given the possibility for differential turnout at the County Conventions, etc.

I'm reversing my call on the 44th Iowa pledged delegate; it will stay in the Uncommitted column until March 12 at least.

Erc, do you have any news from the North Dakota GOP district caucuses? :)

Not really; this is the only article I've been able to find (http://bismarcktribune.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/bosch-heinert-nominated-to-open-gop-legislative-seats/article_0c167f66-b6be-565d-8e92-1db1bcf704f3.html), and it doesn't mention the Presidential race at all.  Seems like more of the attention is on local politics, presidential preference may not be playing a huge role.

Some fun pictures on the ND GOP's twitter feed (https://twitter.com/ndgop), though.

Presumably this is Black Hawk County

Indeed.  For text parsing reasons, I cut all two-word counties down to one word in my spreadsheet, and forgot to restore some of them.  At least I didn't report results from "Des County" :)

New Hampshire Delegate Outlook

Democrats (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4877660#msg4877660)

24 delegates are up for grabs: groups of 5 and 3 At Large, and 8 in each CD.

Assuming Sanders wins, he gets 5 out of the 8 At-Large delegates.

In each CD, it depends on the margin of victory.  If he wins 56.25% of the two-way vote in a CD, he wins 5 out of 8 delegates; otherwise he and Clinton split them evenly.

Republicans (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4877505#msg4877505)

20 delegates to allocate, with the threshold at 10%.

% Vote	Delegates
0-10%	0
10-12.5%	2
12.5-17.5%	3
17.5%-22.5%	4
22.5%-27.5%	5

Anyone winning more than 27.5% is likely to win the state, given the state of the field.  The winner not only gets his own share of the delegates given his vote share, but also wins any delegates left unallocated.  Essentially, he's treated as if he won the votes that went to the sub-10% candidates.

The delegate result will depend a lot on whether the massive field of candidates all breaks 10% or whether many of them are just under 10%.  In the former case, the winner (presumably Trump) does not get any appreciable bonus, whereas in the latter he may win half the delegates from the state.  This happened in 2012, where Romney won 60% of the delegation on a 39% vote share since both Santorum and Gingrich barely missed the threshold.

Are 20 or 23 delegates being allocated by the NH primary? If it is just 20, then what happens to the 3 RNC members? Are they simply free to support whomever they wish?

So, here's the situation as I see it.

New Hampshire state law (http://www.gencourt.state.nh.us/rsa/html/LXIII/659/659-93.htm) provides the rules for the allocation of delegates (10% threshold, the rounding procedure, etc.).  They also provide for the explicit choosing of delegates after the primary (candidates choose which delegates they want from the list they filed earlier (http://www.gencourt.state.nh.us/rsa/html/LXIII/655/655-50.htm)).

On the Democratic side, this law is in conflict with the national Democratic party rules for delegate allocation, and is overridden by them.

On the Republican side, they are not, so the rules are enjoining.  What does this mean in practice for the 3 automatic delegates?

The New Hampshire GOP Bylaws (http://nh.gop/by-laws/) mention them, but really say nothing except that they are supposed to stay neutral during the Primary.

The 3 automatic delegates are indeed automatic, so the procedure of candidates selecting them from their list after the primary clearly doesn't apply here, though the binding might.

The national GOP rules (https://s3.amazonaws.com/prod-static-ngop-pbl/docs/Rules_of_the_Republican+Party_FINAL_S14090314.pdf) seem to imply that the entire delegation should be bound.  This has been confirmed by an FHQ enquiry to the national GOP, but may still be open for interpretation.

Is there any good precedent here?  In 2008 and 2012, New Hampshire, with a January primary, was penalized and forfeited its automatic party delegates.  In 2000 and previous contests, these delegates didn't exist, so the only precedent we really have is the uncontested 2004 contest.  In that contest, it seems they were not allocated automatically to Bush, but nobody cared about the minutiae then of course.  Of course, the language for binding the entire delegation did not exist in 2004, so this isn't great precedent either.

TL;DR: My reading of New Hampshire State Law and the national GOP rules would seem to imply that all 23 delegates will be bound as a result of the primary.  

In the end, I'm likely to go with whatever the Secretary of State reports, unless the NH or national GOP says otherwise.

Update from FHQ:  They apparently had a chat with the NH GOP (https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/697184345057030144), who clarified that all 23 delegates are at stake tonight.  They will be allocated proportionally as one entire pool of delegates. (https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/697186587180986371)  (How it's decided who gets which RNC member, I don't know).

New Hampshire Results

Democrats

I'd need to check the breakdown by CD to make absolutely sure, but it seems overwhelmingly likely that Sanders broke the 56.25% two-way vote barrier in both CDs.  The result therefore among pledged delegates is:

Sanders 15 - Clinton 9

Republicans

The percentages seem to have stabilized, so the delegate count seems pretty clear here.

Trump 11 - Kasich 4 - Cruz 3 - Bush 3 - Rubio 2

The decision to allocate the automatic delegates based on the results of the primary helped out Kasich, Cruz, and Bush.

Good work here! Thanks for taking on this daunting task.

This should definitely be stickied btw.

Seconded.

Thirded.

Didn't Cruz win Iowa? How did he end up with one less delegate than Trump?

So, is the breakdown of delegates Trump:Rubio 11:2 or 10:3? The race is very close for the last delegate. The way I've calculated it, and what you have in this thread, is 11:2. But most of the media is 10:3...

You should remove the Fiorina column...

Thanks for the sticky!


I transposed the Cruz and Trump columns after Trump's decisive NH victory, and forgot to also transpose the results in Iowa.  Fixed now.

No matter how you slice it, Trump gets 11 and Rubio gets 2.  The media is just wrong on this one.  I'm guessing they rounded prematurely; an 11.0% result would give you 3 delegates, but a 10.6% result gives you 2.

Does the Republican party have super delegates like the Democrats do? I was looking at CNN's result's page for the Democratic caucus in NH, and it said Hillary and Bernie both won 15 delegates, even though she lost big time. I am assuming all the super delegates from NH are backing Hillary.

They rounded on purpose, apparently this is the rule (despite making no sense): https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/697519581884239873 (https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/697519581884239873)

Here's the state law in question:


Note that it says proportion, not percentage in Paragraph I.

There's a reference to rounding percentages in Paragraph II, though, which struck me as odd.  But it's unclear whether Paragraph I refers to rounding a number of delegates or a percentage.

I'm sticking to my allocation, unless there's something from the Secretary of State that says otherwise.

Important going forward for the Automatic Delegates.  For states that don't specify a process for binding them, they are to be treated as At-Large delegates, according to a recent RNC memo. (http://www.scribd.com/doc/298879643/Counsel-s-Office-Memo-re-RNC-Member-Binding)

The memo is nonsensical.

Rule 16(a)(1) does not clarify. Rather it makes the matter more ambiguous, opaque, and obscure.

Rule 16(b) specifically applies only to at-large and district delegates. Now it appears to be that the RNC counsel is arguing that if, state party rules and state laws do not specify how how the party delegates are to be elected, selected, allocated or bound (because traditionally they have been selected independently of the presidential process, because they are ex officio delegates to the convention), then they are covered by national party rules. And since the national party rules specify that all delegates be bound, they must be "at-large" delegates.

If 20 delegates are allocated on the basis of the popular vote it is:

Trump 7, Kasich 3, Cruz 2, Bush 2, Rubio 2, Christie 1, and Fiorina 1 (2 delegates not allocated due to truncation).

Trump gets the 2 unallocated delegates plus the Christie and Fiorina delegates, since they were below the 10% threshold.

Trump 11, Kasich 3, Cruz 2, Bush 2, Rubio 2, and 3 party delegates.

I think rounding applies to delegates, rather than percentages, in subsection II. Whole number of percentage does not make sense.

Rubio is just short of 2.5, even if 23 delegates are allocated. There were 30 candidates on the ballot plus write-ins, and the allocation is to be based on the total for all candidates. They might have either not considered those votes, or decided to round the percentage to 11%.

The press was wrong in Iowa as well.

Let's took at that Paragraph I again:


So, reading this literally, it is saying that I am rounding "the proportion" to the nearest whole number.  What does that even mean?

I would say, and I think the common sense interpretation here is, that each candidate receives the same proportion of the delegation as his proportion of the total votes cast, with the number of delegates received rounded to the nearest whole number.

FHQ's and the media's interpretation appears to be that I round the "proportion of...the total votes cast" to the nearest whole percentage point.  That's a huge leap.  And since there aren't exactly 100 delegates, I would then have to round yet again, not something that is anywhere explicitly stated.

Of course, this is looking at Paragraph I in isolation.  Their interpretation seems to rest on the weird language in Paragraph II.


Why the mention of "any rounding to the nearest whole number"?  I would say that it's a bit odd, but is basically just a clarification that you need to get at least 10.00000% of the vote to receive delegates.  They would say, perhaps, that it implies that the percent of votes a candidate receives is rounded to the nearest whole number by Paragraph I.  I'd still say it's a leap, though.

I'm sticking with my count (which The Green Papers agrees with) unless the Secretary of State says otherwise.  We should know one way or the other within a couple weeks, as the SoS should be notifying the candidates how many delegates they are entitled to soon; 10 days after that the candidates respond with which particular individuals they want to represent them at Cleveland (from a list submitted to the SoS before the primary).


What's crazy is that if you went with the media rounding scheme here, Trump actually receives fewer delegates when there are 23 delegates at play as opposed to 20.

I agree, jimrtex, that that memo leaves something to be desired.  But I'm glad they provided clarification, because it was an open question, and the memo resolves the matter to my general satisfaction.

Republican Superdelegates

EDIT: This post is outdated; I now track these delegates here. (http://the-delegate-fight.tumblr.com/post/141443015159/unbound-gop-delegates)

Given the recent memo from the RNC clarifying that the 3 automatic delegates from each state must be bound based on the statewide results, the potential for Republican "superdelegates" to make a difference on the first ballot is much diminished.

In fact, this ruling means that there are only Eighteen (18) delegates who attend by virtue of their position and are entirely free to vote their conscience on the first ballot: three from each state/territory that is holding no sort of public vote this year.  None of them have yet endorsed a candidate.

American Samoa
Utu Abe Malae
Amata Radewagen
Su'a Schuster

Colorado
Steve House
Lily Nuñez
George Leing

Guam
Mike Benito
Margaret Metcalfe
David Sablan

North Dakota
Kelly Armstrong
Sandy Boehler
Curly Haugland

Virgin Islands
John Canegata
Lilliana Belardo de O'Neal
Holland Redfield III

Wyoming
Matt Micheli
Marti Halverson
Greg Schaefer

There will also be other unbound delegates at the Republican National Convention, though they will need to be elected.  These include:

• American Samoa (6)
• Guam (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4931980#msg4931980) (6)
• Louisiana (5): votes for Rubio and Kasich were effectively allocated to an Uncommitted slate.
• Nevada (0-2): Ben Carson's delegates could be unbound at his option.
• New Hampshire (3): Jeb Bush's delegates here are now unbound.
• North Dakota (25)
• Oklahoma (3): votes for Kasich were effectively allocated to an Uncommitted slate.
• Pennsylvania (54): delegates elected on the primary ballot are unbound; no preference is listed on the delegate ballot.
• Virgin Islands (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4931928#msg4931928) (5-6): some Uncommitted delegates were directly elected here, though some are subject to a credentials fight.
• West Virginia (31): delegates elected on the primary ballot may be officially unbound; they list a commitment on the primary ballot.  FHQ believes (https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/708022842496065536) they are bound by that commitment.

Uncommitted is also a valid option on many ballots, and could in principle receive delegates.  This is only really a likely possibility where delegates are directly elected, as in IL, CO, and WY.  So far, this has only happened in the Virgin Islands.

In total, that's 153 officially unbound delegates, or around 6.2% of the total.  Of course, the WV delegates will have expressed a clear preference.  There's also the 10 delegates still bound to minor candidates that don't seem to get released until after the first ballot.

SC primary is winner takes all, correct? So when trump wins SC he gets all 50 of the delegates?

I think its winner take all by Congressional district so if Trump were to have his support dispersed fairly evenly amongst the state he should do just fine delegate wise.

There's a pot of 29 At-Large that's Winner Take All, and 3 WTA per congressional distrrict (total of 21).  Barring a really close three-way race, one expects the winner to take at least 41 out of the 50; more if the result isn't at all close.

So, we should start getting some separation then, especially if Trump wins?  What about Nevada?

This whole thread thread is dedicated to answering these kinds of questions, you don't have to ask, you can just look for an existing post. In the case of the Nevada Republican caucus, that means this post.  (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4886684#msg4886684)

Even The Green Papers has folded and gone with the weird rounding rules.  With literally everyone saying the weird rounding rules are correct, I'm reluctantly forced to change my call and move a delegate from Trump to Rubio.

Looking at the delegate count on both sides right now really shows how in the grand scheme of things how meaningless NH and Iowa really are.

In Iowa Cruz wins the state and ends up with ONE more delegate than Trump and Rubio.

Trump wins NH in a COMPLETE and utter blow out and ends up with a measly 6 more delegates than Kasich and 7 more than Cruz, Rubio and Bush.

Talk about meaningless.

The only meaning they really have is to signal candidates' viability in similar future states.

Arkansas (R) - March 1

Overview
40 Delegates (1.62% of total)
Open Primary
28 At-Large (Proportional, top 3; almost WTA if majority)
12 District (“Winner-Take-Most”)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate wins a majority of the votes in a congressional district, they are awarded 3 delegates.  Otherwise, the winner is awarded 2 and the runner-up is awarded 1.  

Every candidate who earns at least 15% of the statewide vote is awarded 1 At-Large delegate.  If a candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, they are awarded all the remaining At-Large delegates.  Otherwise, the remaining delegates are allocated proportionally among the top three finishers, rounding fractional delegates to the nearest whole number. All rounding error resolution is done in favor of those with the highest vote totals first, as in Alabama.

In the event a presidential candidate does not have enough filed delegate candidates (see next section), they are reallocated to the highest vote-getter in that jurisdiction who does.

Delegate Selection

Candidates for delegate must file at the State GOP headquarters between February 15 and February 29 and pay a $250 filing fee, and must pledge themselves to a candidate when they do so.  Each candidate for President is encouraged to provide the AR GOP with a list of their preferred delegate candidates; if such a list is provided by April 18, it will show up on the later ballots.  The District delegates are selected at Special District Conventions on April 30, while the At-Large Delegates are selected by the State Committee Meeting on May 14.  The delegates to the Special District Conventions are chosen at Special County Conventions in March; one can be a delegate to those conventions by filing in early November 2015.

Results (3/2)

Statewide, Trump and Cruz win 10 delegates each and Rubio wins 8.

In the Congressional Districts, Trump won CDs 1,3, and 4, picking up another 6 delegates.  Cruz placed 2nd in those districts and 1st in CD 2, picking up 5 delegates.  Rubio placed 2nd in CD 2, picking up 1 more delegate.  Results are not complete, but these margins seem secure.

Total: Trump 16, Cruz 15, Rubio 9.

FHQ disagrees with this count, giving Trump another delegate and taking 2 away from Cruz (and apparently not calling a last delegate).

Withdrawal of Candidates / Brokered Convention

All delegates are bound only for the first ballot, unless released by their candidate before that ballot.

Useful Links
AR GOP Delegate Rules (http://www.scribd.com/doc/289395731/2016-Arkansas-Gop-delegate-Rules)
The Green Papers: AR (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/AR-R#0301)
Frontloading HQ: AR (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/11/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_14.html)

Colorado (R): March 1 - April 9

Overview
37 Delegates (1.50% of total)
Closed Caucus (non-binding)
13 At-Large
21 District
3 RNC Members

Delegate Selection and Allocation

The Colorado GOP has elected not to hold a Presidential Preference Poll at its caucuses this year.  If it had, delegates would have to be allocated and bound proportionally according to its results; this was avoided by eliminating the poll.  As a result, we will likely know next to nothing about the final delegate allocation from Colorado on the night of March 1.

Caucus-goers in 2917 precincts statewide will elect delegates to the County Assemblies and District Conventions.  By March 24/25, people wishing to run for delegate to the National Convention must file with the State GOP Chair.  On the filing form, delegates may choose to pledge themselves to a particular presidential candidate; this pledge is binding. They may also choose to remain unbound.  There are also strict eligibility rules for National Convention delegates.  In particular, they must have been a delegate at a County Assembly and at either a District Convention (for CD delegates) or the State Convention (for At-Large delegates).

The District Conventions are held (presumably) on April 8.  Each convention chooses its 3 delegates to the National Convention, as well as delegates to the State Convention.  The State Convention on April 9 chooses the 21 At-Large delegates.

At each stage of the process (caucuses, District Conventions and State Convention) voters may cast a number of votes equal to the number of delegates to be chosen by that caucus/convention.  The top delegate candidates are elected by plurality vote, so extensive winnowing is to be expected between stages.  Tactical voting and makeshift alliances may also prove very important at the later stages.

RNC Members

Steve House
Mike Kopp
Lilly Nuñez

Withdrawn Candidates / Brokered Convention

Any bound delegates are only bound for the first ballot; if a candidate releases his delegates or is not placed in nomination, his delegates are unbound.  

Useful Links
Colorado GOP Rules (http://www.scribd.com/doc/293159746/2016-CO-GOP-delegate-allocation-rules-9-26-15) (older version (http://ogreexposed.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/9.24.11-CRC-Bylaws-and-Appendices-amended-Sept-24-2011-Copy.pdf))
Frontloading HQ: CO (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/12/2016-republican-delegate-allocation.html)
The Green Papers: CO (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/CO-R#0301)

Georgia (R): March 1

Overview
76 Delegates (3.07% of total)
Half-Open Primary
42 District (Winner-Take-Most; WTA if majority)
34 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a presidential candidate receives the majority of votes in a Congressional District, they are allocated 3 delegates; otherwise, the winner is allocated 2 delegates and the runner-up allocated 1.

Statewide, if a candidate receives a majority of the votes, they are awarded all 34 delegates.  Otherwise, delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates receiving at least 20% of the vote.  The exact nature of how this is done is unclear, but it seems that they are allocated based on each candidate’s percentage of the total statewide vote, with all fractions rounded down.  The procedure is then followed again for the remaining unallocated delegates.  If after this there are still any left over, they are given to the winner.

The three RNC members are treated as At-Large delegates for all purposes; they are allocated to the statewide winner.  From my reading of the GA GOP rules, these are part of the above allocation (i.e. 34 delegates are awarded proportionally, and three of the winner’s allocated delegates happen to be RNC members).  Frontloading HQ and The Green Papers disagree with me, claiming that 31 delegates are awarded proportionally, and the 3 RNC members are separately given to the winner.  The appropriate section of the GA GOP rules is as follows:


Delegate Selection

Delegates are selected at District Conventions on April 16 and the State Convention on June 3/4.  Delegates to these conventions are chosen at County Conventions on March 19, while delegates to those conventions are chosen at Precinct Mass Meetings held March 10-19.

Results (3/2)

The CD delegates break down as Trump 26 - Cruz 9 - Rubio 7.  Rubio's strength was much more concentrated; he won a couple CDs but placed third in a lot more, which hurt him in the delegate count.

The At-Large delegates depend on your interpretation of the rules (i.e. whether RNC members are allocated along with the At-Large delegates or not, and if not, whether fractional delegates are truncated or rounded to the nearest whole delegate).  My interpretation gives Trump 16 - Rubio 9 - Cruz 9.  The Green Papers gives (with a weird interpretation and outdated results) Trump 17 - Rubio 9 - Cruz 8.  Another plausible interpretation (apparently favored by FHQ) would give Trump 18 - Rubio 8 - Cruz 8.

Withdrawals / Brokered Convention

All delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless their candidate withdraws before the convention.

Useful Links
GA GOP Rules (http://www.scribd.com/doc/292968122/gagop-rules-9-26-15)
Frontloading HQ: GA (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/12/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_10.html)
The Green Papers: GA (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/GA-R#0301)
Georgia State Code (http://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2010/title-21/chapter-2/article-5/21-2-197)

Massachusetts (R): March 1

Overview
42 Delegates (1.70% of total)
Half-Open Primary
42 At-Large (Proportional, 5% threshold)

Delegate Allocation
42 Delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates who receive at least 5% of the vote in the primary.  Each candidate receives the same proportion of delegates as their proportion of the vote among all candidates meeting the the threshold, with rounding done to the nearest whole number.  Any rounding errors are resolved by giving delegates to the winner or removing delegates from the last-place finisher, as necessary.

Delegate Selection
27 Delegates are selected at District Conventions on April 23, and 12 delegates are selected by the State Committee in early June.

Results (3/2)

Candidate	Percent	Delegates
Trump	49.3%	22
Kasich	18.0%	8
Rubio	17.8%	8
Cruz	9.6%	4

This is in agreement with FHQ and The Green Papers.


Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention
Delegates are bound on the first ballot unless released by their candidate.


It's not clear that this law actually applies to MA's delegates, the selection of which are not subject to the approval of a presidential candidate.  That said, it was considered binding in 2012, when the delegates were Ron Paul supporters despite a Romney landslide in the state; they were forced to vote for Romney at the convention.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MA-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MA-R)
Frontloading HQ: MA (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/02/2016-republican-delegate-allocation.html)
MA G.L. c.53, §70I (https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleVIII/Chapter53/Section70I)

Minnesota (R): March 1

Overview
38 Delegates (1.70% of total)
Open Caucus (Binding)
24 District (Proportional, 10% threshold)
14 At-Large (Proportional, 10% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

The 14 At-Large delegates are allocated proportionally to all candidates meeting a 10% threshold.  Each candidate receives the same proportion of delegates as their proportion of the vote among all candidates meeting the the threshold, with rounding done to the nearest whole number.  This starts with the winner and then proceeds down; if delegates are yet to be assigned at the end, round up the candidate closest to receiving an additional delegate.

The same allocation procedure occurs for the 3 delegates in each Congressional District, based on the vote in that district; this is quite likely just to give a delegate to each of the top three finishers in each district, unless any candidate has a majority of the threshold-clearing vote.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at District Conventions in late April / early May, and at the State Convention on May 20.  Delegates to these conventions are chosen at BPOU Conventions in March/April, while delegates to those conventions are chosen at the caucuses.

Results (3/2)

Based on their results of the statewide vote, Rubio wins 6 delegates, Cruz 5, and Trump 3.  In CDs 3, 4, and 5, Rubio won a majority of the threshold-clearing vote, winning 2 delegates to Cruz's 1.  In the other 5 CDs, Rubio, Cruz, and Trump each won 1 delegate.

Totals:  Rubio 17, Cruz 13, Trump 8.


Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention
At-Large Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless released by their candidate, or their candidate withdraws.  This is confirmed by the pledge signed by all delegate candidates (http://www.scribd.com/doc/306645850/Republican-Party-of-Minnesota-Delegate-Pledge-Form-and-Affidavit).  The MN GOP (http://republicanpartyofminnesota.createsend1.com/t/ViewEmail/d/1BD4ABB3E4E5169E/285204E9D78891EA6A4D01E12DB8921D) says that Rubio's delegates are released if he "is not on the first ballot"; so it seems that this is what is meant by "withdrawal."

As a result, I am releasing Rubio's delegates, as he will not be on the first ballot barring changes in Rule 40.

Jeff Kolb raises an interesting point (https://medium.com/@jpkolb/what-really-happens-to-rubio-s-mn-delegates-24b8265f5b2b#.1giw9e6lc) that the Delegate Selection Rules may be illegitimate; I sincerely doubt this is the case, but we'll see how this plays out down the line.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MN-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MN-R#0301)
MN GOP Constitution (http://mngop.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/MNGOP-Constitution.pdf)
Frontloading HQ: MN (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/12/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_12.html)
MN Delegate Allocation Rules (http://www.scribd.com/doc/293102201/2016-Minnesota-Republican-Delegate-Allocation-Rules)

Milestone on the superdelegates front:

Today's additions (Alma Gonzalez from FL and some previously-missed Puerto Rico endorsements) have pushed Clinton to over 60% support from superdelegates.

Oklahoma (R): March 1

Overview
43 Delegates (1.74% of total)
Closed Primary
15 District (Proportional, 15% threshold; WTA if majority)
28 At-Large (Proportional, 15% threshold; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

Three delegates are awarded from each of Oklahoma's five Congressional Districts.  If a candidate gets a majority of the vote in a CD (or is the only candidate to clear 15%), they receive all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, if three (or more) candidates place above 15% in a CD, the top three finishers each get one delegate.  If only two do, the winner gets two and the runner-up gets one.

If a candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, they receive all 28 At-Large delegates.  Otherwise, the delegates are awarded proportionally among all candidates receiving at least 15% of the statewide vote.  The exact manner in which this is done is not clear.  The GOP rules imply that each candidate receives delegates proportional to the share of the overall vote, rounded to the nearest delegate, à la New Hampshire; however, this would generically leave a number of delegates unassigned due to candidates not meeting the threshold. The appropriate section from the GOP rules:


FHQ has clarified that the delegates left over after this procedure are left Uncommitted.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at District Conventions on April 16 and the State Convention on May 13-14.  This includes, crucially, the three Uncommitted delegates from the results below.

Results (3/2)

The candidates split the CD delegates 5-5-5.

At-Large, Cruz won 10 delegates, Trump 8, Rubio 7, and Uncommitted 3.  

Totals: Cruz 15, Trump 13, Rubio 12.

The Green Papers does not believe that the below-threshold votes are allocated to Uncommitted, and parcels them out among the three candidates appropriately.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound for all ballots until their candidate is "for any reason no longer a candidate."

Useful Links
The Green Papers: OK-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/OK-R)
Frontloading HQ: OK (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/12/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_13.html)
OK GOP Rules (http://www.scribd.com/doc/293159748/2016-OK-GOP-delegate-allocation-rules)
Oklahoma Statutes §26-20-104 G. (http://www.oklegislature.gov/osstatuestitle.html)

Tennessee (R): March 1

Overview
58 Delegates (2.35% of total)
Open Primary
27 District (Winner-Take-Most, 20% threshold)
31 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

Three delegates are awarded from each of Tennessee's nine Congressional Districts.  If a candidate gets two-thirds of the vote in a CD (or is the only candidate to clear 20%), they receive all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, the first place finisher receives two delegates while the runner-up receives one.

If a candidate receives two-thirds of the statewide vote (or is the only candidate to clear 20%), they receive all 31 At-Large delegates.  Otherwise, they are allocated among all candidates clearing 20%, proportional to their vote share among the threshold-clearing candidates.  Delegates are given out starting with the statewide winner, with all fractional delegates rounded up.

Results (as of 3/7)

Trump 33 - Cruz 16 - Rubio 9 (http://tngop.org/tngop-releases-preliminary-presidential-at-large-delegate-allocations/?platform=hootsuite)

Delegate Selection

The Congressional District delegates and half of the At-Large delegates are directly elected on the ballot; they needed to obtain the consent of the candidate they are pledged to in order to appear on the ballot under their name. The other half of the At-Large delegates selected by the State GOP Executive Committee on April 2, with advice from the Presidential campaigns.  If a campaign should not have enough delegates on the ballot, the Executive Committee will choose the remaining delegates.

Delegates

Trump:
[1] Mae Beavers
[2] Doris B. Arnold
[3] Robert Duvall
[4] Chad Blackburn
[5] William H. Beavers
[6] Karen Bennett
[7] Julie Brockman
[8...15] Chosen April 2
[1-1] David "Kent" Harris
[1-2] Betty Jo Kern
[2-1] Tim Hutchison
[2-2] Sam Maynard
[3-1] M. David Riden
[3-2] Richard L. Snead
[4-1] Larry Sims
[4-2] Jeff Peach
[5-1] Connie Hunter
[5-2] Ron McDow
[6-1] Chris Hughes
[6-2] Jerry Wayne Beavers
[7-1] Larry W. Cooper
[7-2] James Kenneth Eaton
[8-1] Joseph S. Coury
[8-2] Nichole Bufalino
[9-1] Terry Allen Roland
[9-2] Charlotte Bergmann

Cruz
[1] Joe Carr
[2] Steve Gill
[3] Lee Douglas
[4] Deborah Deaver
[5] Sheila Butt
[6...10] Chosen April 2
[1-1] B. Claire Crouch
[4-1] Edward M. Phillips Jr.
[6-1] Laura M. Baigert
[7-1] Sharon P. Strange
[8-1] Mick Wright
[9-1] Lynn Moss

Rubio
[1] Victor Ashe
[2] Beth Campbell
[3] Randy Ellis
[4...6] Chosen April 2
[2-1] Michael Hensley
[3-1] Randy Fairbanks
[5-1] Luke Elliott

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound for at least two ballots.  Delegates for withdrawn candidates still get to attend the convention; it's not entirely clear that they are released in that eventuality, though I will assume they are.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: TN-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/TN-R)
Frontloading HQ: TN (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/12/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_15.html)
TN GOP Rules (http://www.scribd.com/doc/293339168/2016-TN-GOP-delegate-allocation-rules)
Unofficial Delegate Ballot Results (http://elections.tn.gov/Delegates.pdf)
TN Code §§2-13-307(b) (https://www.lexisnexis.com/hottopics/tncode/)

Texas (R): March 1

Overview
155 Delegates (6.27% of total)
Open Primary
108 District (Winner-Take-Most, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)
47 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

Three delegates are awarded from each of Texas' 36 Congressional Districts.  If a candidate gets a majority of the vote in a CD they receive all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, the first place finisher receives two delegates while the runner-up receives one.

If a candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, they receive all 47 At-Large delegates.  Otherwise, they are allocated among all candidates clearing 20%, proportional to their vote share among the threshold-clearing candidates.  All fractions are rounded down.  Any delegates left over after rounding are given one at a time to the highest placing candidates, in order, until all delegates are allocated.  If only one candidate places above 20% but no one has a majority, delegates are allocated proportionally between the winner and the runner-up in the same fashion.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are selected by the State Convention on May 14.

Results (3/2)

At-Large, Rubio failed to meet the threshold, and Cruz wins 30 to Trump's 17 delegates.

Cruz won all the CDs, including majorities in CDs 1 and 29, picking up another 74 delegates.

Rubio placed 2nd and above threshold in CDs 7, 16, and 32, picking up 3 delegates.

Trump placed 2nd in the remaining CDs, picking up 31 additional delegates.

Totals: Cruz 104, Trump 48, Rubio 3.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate withdraws, dies, or releases them.  Delegates are also bound on the second ballot if their candidate receives 20% of the total vote on the first ballot.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: TX-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/TX-R)
Frontloading HQ: TX (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/12/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_16.html)
TX GOP Rules (http://www.scribd.com/doc/293443176/2016-TXGOP-delegate-allocation-rules)

Vermont (R): March 1

Overview
16 Delegates (0.65% of total)
Open Primary
16 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate receives a majority of the vote, they receive all 16 delegates.  Otherwise, the delegates are allocated among all candidates meeting a 20% threshold, proportional to the share of the vote among all threshold-meeting candidates.  Delegates are rounded to the nearest whole number; rounding errors are resolved by giving delegates to the winner or subtracting delegates from the lowest-placed finisher, as appropriate.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are selected by the State Convention on May 21.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot unless their candidate withdraws, suspends his campaign, or is not placed in nomination.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: VT-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/VT-R)
Frontloading HQ: VT (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/12/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_17.html)
VT GOP Rules (http://www.scribd.com/doc/293486453/2016-VTGOP-delegate-allocation-rules)

Virginia (R): March 1

Overview
49 Delegates (1.98% of total)
Open Primary
49 At-Large (Proportional, no threshold)

Delegate Allocation

Delegates are allocated among all candidates, proportional to their share of the vote.  Delegates are rounded to the nearest whole number; rounding errors are resolved by giving delegates to (or taking them from) the candidates closest to (or furthest from) receiving an additional delegate.

Note that this mean any candidate receiving at least 1.02% of the vote (up to rounding errors) will be entitled to a delegate.  This raises the remote possibility that one of the dropouts could get a delegate (compare Paul's 0.7% result in New Hampshire). GILMENTUM?

Delegate Selection

Delegates are selected by the Congressional District Conventions from March through May, and by the State Convention on April 30.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot.  It seems that delegates bound to withdrawn candidates are still bound.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: VA-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/VA-R)
Frontloading HQ: VA (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/12/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_22.html)
VA Delegate Allocation: GOP (http://www.scribd.com/doc/293870784/2016-VAGOP-delegate-allocation-rules)

Wyoming (R): February 16-April 16

Overview
29 Delegates (1.17% of total)
Closed Caucus (non-binding)
12 County
14 At-Large
3 RNC Members

Details

Wyoming, like Colorado and North Dakota, elected not to hold a Presidential Preference Poll at this year's caucus.  As a result, we will know next to nothing about the results on the night of the caucus itself.

Precinct caucuses are held across the state on a number of different days, currently ranging from February 16 (in Niobrara County) to March 1.  These elect delegates to the County Conventions; note that there is often only one precinct per county in Wyoming.

The 23 various County Conventions are held on March 12 (http://wyoming.gop/county-conventions/).  Twelve of these counties will select a delegate to Cleveland (Albany, Sweetwater, Uinta, Teton, Fremont, Hotsprings, Sheridan Platte, Campbell, Crook, Converse, Goshen, and Laramie) and twelve will select an alternate (the other eleven counties and Laramie again).  The county conventions also elect delegates to the State Convention (numbers shown here (http://wyoming.gop/2016-state-convention/)).  

The remaining 14 delegates are selected at the State Convention on April 14.   A slate of delegates is drawn up by the Nominating/Elections committee, though more names may be added from the floor.  All delegate candidates at the State Convention must inform the Convention of their Presidential Preference.

Candidates for National Convention Delegate may pledge themselves to a candidate prior to their nomination; according to their process submission to the RNC, this pledge is binding, though completely optional.  It is unclear how many ballots such a pledge is binding for.  If a candidate "isn't in the race in July," they are freed from their pledge, according to WY GOP chairman Matt Micheli (http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/wyoming-republicans-will-meet-saturday-to-decide-on-presidential-nominee/article_76649e5a-5539-5e4b-be36-8aba7e2f2ceb.html).

RNC Members (unbound)

Matt Micheli
Marti Halverson
Greg Schaefer

County Convention Results (March 12)

Cruz 9 - Rubio 1 - Trump 1 - Uncommitted 1

Based on these results, I'm projecting a Cruz sweep of all 14 delegates at the State Convention.

Delegates:

Rubio (1):
Tammy Hooper - Cruz (http://www.laramieboomerang.com/news/local_news/rubio-by-an-edge-in-albany-county/article_4cb97368-e8d5-11e5-93e2-478f7b569257.html)

Uncommitted (1):
Ogden Driskill (https://www.facebook.com/CrookCountyGOP/posts/967707829982019).

Useful Links
The Green Papers: WY-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WY-R)
Frontloading HQ: WY (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/12/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_27.html)
WY GOP Bylaws (http://wyoming.gop/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2014.bylaws.pdf)
WY GOP Convention Details (http://wyoming.gop/2016-state-convention/)
Wyoming Precinct Caucus Schedule (http://wyoming.gop/precinct-caucuses/#)
RNC Process Book (http://www.scribd.com/doc/294928557/2016-Presidential-Nominating-Process-Book-version-2-0-Dec-2015-pdf)

March 1 Democratic Primaries: Part I

Delegate Allocation Overview

Unlike for the Republicans, where the specific math varies from state to state, the system for the Democrats is largely uniform.  In each jurisdiction (each CD, At-Large, and PLEO At-Large), the delegates are allocated among candidates meeting a 15% threshold, proportional to their share of the vote among candidates meeting that threshold.  Fractional delegates are rounded up, starting with the largest remainder, until all delegates are assigned.

Alabama (D)

Overview
60 Delegates (1.26% of total)
Open Primary
11 At-Large
7 PLEO At-Large
35 by CD
7 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 11 and 7 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 9 for CD 1; 5 for CDs 1, 2, 3; 4 for CDs 4, 5; 3 for CD 6.

Superdelegates

Clinton (4): Rep. Terri Sewell, Randy Kelley, Unzell Kelley, Janet May (http://blog.4president.org/2016/2015/11/hillary-clinton-for-america-announces-alabama-leadership-council.html)

Uncommitted (3): Chair Nancy Worley, Darryl Sinkfield, Vice Chair (Vacant)

The Green Papers: AL-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/AL-D)

American Samoa (D)

Overview
10 Delegates (0.21% of total)
Open Caucus
6 At-Large
4 Superdelegates

Details

The caucus takes place at the Tradewinds Hotel in Ottoville Village near Pago Pago.  6 delegates are allocated proportionally on the basis of the caucus vote.

Superdelegates

Clinton (4): Chair Fagafaga Daniel Langkilde, Vice Chair Galea'i Tuufuli, Clara Reid, Gov. Lolo Moliga (http://www.samoanews.com/content/en/campaign-2016-report)

Sanders (1): Therese Hunkin (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/)

The Green Papers: AS-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/AS-D)

Arkansas (D)

Overview
37 Delegates (0.78% of total)
Open Primary
7 At-Large
4 PLEO At-Large
21 by CD
4 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 7 and 4 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 6 for CDs 2, 4; 5 for CD 1; 4 for CD 3.

Superdelegates

Clinton (5): Chair Vice Insalaco, Vice Chair Joyce Elliott, Dustin McDaniel, Krystal Thraikill, Lottie Shackelford (https://web.archive.org/web/20151117014537/www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article44772444.html)

The Green Papers: AR-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/AR-D)

Georgia (D)

Overview
117 Delegates (2.46% of total)
Open Primary
22 At-Large
13 PLEO At-Large
67 by CD
15 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 22 and 13 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 7 for CD 5; 6 for CDs 4,13; 5 for CDs 1,2,6,12; 4 for CDs 3,7,8,9,10,11,14.

Superdelegates

Confirmed Clinton (11): Rep. Hank Johnson, Rep. John Lewis, Rep. David Scott, David Worley, Dan Halpern, Vice Chair Nikema Williams, Sally Rosser, Chair Dubose Porter, Wendy Davis, Kasim Reed (http://www.peachpundit.com/2015/10/07/hillary-clinton-announces-georgia-team/), Pam Stephenson (http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/02/18/hillary-clinton-ratchets-up-the-battle-for-black-endorsements-in-georgia/)

Uncommitted (4): President Jimmy Carter, Rep. Sanford Bishop, Richard Ray, Louis Elrod

The Green Papers: GA-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/GA-D)

Massachusetts (D)

Overview
116 Delegates (2.44% of total)
Half-Open Primary
20 At-Large
12 PLEO At-Large
59 by CD
25 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 20 and 12 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 7 for CD 5,6,7,8,9; 6 for CDs 1,2,3,4.

Superdelegates


Clinton 17 - Sanders 1 - Uncommitted 7

according to Bloomberg. (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/)

Confirmed Clinton (16): Sen. Ed Markey, Rep. Michael Capuano, Rep. Katherine Clark, Rep. William Keatin, Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III, Rep. Stephen Lynch, Rep. Jim McGovern, Rep. Seth Moulton, Rep. Richard Neal, Rep. Niki Tsongas, Ex-DNC Chair Steve Grossman, Gus Bickford, Kate Donaghue, Ray Jordan, Elaine Kamarck, David O'Brien (https://medium.com/@MAforHillary/hillary-for-america-announces-massachusetts-leadership-council-7068a9333612#.xcniovxuf)

Sanders (1): Ex-DNC Chair Paul G. Kirk, Jr. (http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/14/paul-kirk-ex-d-n-c-chairman-and-ted-kennedy-confidante-endorses-bernie-sanders/)

Other DNC [8]: Ex-DNC Chair Debra DeLee, Chair Thomas McGee, Vice Chair Debra Kozikowski, Susan Thomson, Virginia Barnes, James Roosevelt, Alejandra Salinas

The Green Papers: MA-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MA-D)


Minnesota (D)

Overview
93 Delegates (1.95% of total)
Open Caucus
17 At-Large
10 PLEO At-Large
50 by CD
16 Superdelegates

Details

Despite being a caucus state, delegates are allocated and bound based on the raw vote at the precinct caucuses; functionally, this is a primary with lower turnout.  Groups of 17 and 10 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 9 for CD 5; 7 for CDs 3,4; 6 for CDs 2,8; 5 for CDs 1,6,7.

Superdelegates

Clinton (13): Vice President Walter Mondale (http://legacy.kare11.com/story/news/local/2015/04/17/walter-mondale-american-academy-of-neurology/25958027/), Gov. Mark Dayton, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Sen. Al Franken, Rep. Tim Walz, Ken Martin, Nancy Schumacher (http://blog.4president.org/2016/2015/10/hillary-clinton-campaign-announces-hillary-for-colorado-minnesota-and-virginia-leadership-councils.html), Rep. Betty McCollum, Rep. Rick Nolan (https://www.minnpost.com/dc-dispatches/2015/09/it-s-who-you-know-minnesota-delegation-s-ties-democratic-presidential-field), Marge Hoffa, Javier Morillo-Alicea, Rick Stafford, Lori Sellner (http://blog.4president.org/2016/2016/02/more-than-100-progressive-leaders-in-minnesota-including-vice-president-walter-mondale-stand-with-hi.html)

Sanders (2): Rep. Keith Ellison (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/), Rep. Collin Peterson (http://www.wday.com/news/3995486-rep-collin-peterson-would-vote-bernie-sanders-delegate)

Uncommitted (1): DNC Vice Chair RT Rybak

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MN-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MN-D)
MN Delegate Selection Plan (http://www.dfl.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Minnesota-Delegate-Selection-Plan.pdf)
DFL State Convention Rules (http://www.dfl.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Temporary-and-Proposed-Permanent-Rules.pdf)

March 1 Democratic Primaries: Part II

Oklahoma (D)

Overview
42 Delegates (0.88% of total)
Closed Primary
8 At-Large
5 PLEO At-Large
25 by CD
4 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 8 and 5 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 6 for CD 5; 5 for CDs 1,3,4; 4 for CD 3.

Superdelegates

Clinton (1): Betty McElderry (http://www.news9.com/story/31256968/oklahoma-superdelegate-says-shes-feeling-the-bern)

Sanders (1): Vice Chair Connie Johnson (http://www.news9.com/story/31256968/oklahoma-superdelegate-says-shes-feeling-the-bern)

Uncommitted (2): Chair Mark Hammons, Jim Frasier

The Green Papers: OK-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/OK-D)


Tennessee (D)

Overview
75 Delegates (1.57% of total)
Open Primary
14 At-Large
9 PLEO At-Large
44 by CD
8 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 14 and 9 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 7 for CD 9; 6 for CD 5; 5 for CDs 3,7,8; 4 for CDs 1,2,4,6.

Superdelegates

Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/): 6 Clinton - 2 Uncommitted

Confirmed Clinton (5): Rep. Jim Cooper, Rep. Steve Cohen, Gale Jones Carson, Vice Chair John Litz, Bill Owen (http://wate.com/2015/11/13/6-of-9-superdelegates-in-tenn-support-clinton-but-not-gore/)

Other (3): Vice President Al Gore, Chair Mary Mancini, Will Cheek

Myron Lowery (Clinton) is apparently no longer a superdelegate.

The Green Papers: TN-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/TN-D)

Texas (D)

Overview
251 Delegates (5.27% of total)
Closed Primary*
48 At-Large
29 PLEO At-Large
145 by State Senatorial District.
29 Superdelegates

Details

*See jimrtex's post below for a clarification of how voter affliation works in Texas.

Groups of 48 and 29 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  Unlike most states, the District-level delegates are apportioned by State Senate Districts, not Congressional Districts.  The district delegates are distributed among the SDs as follows: 10 for SD 14; 8 for SDs 13,23; 6 for SDs 10,15,25,26; 5 for SDs 5,8,16,17,19,20,21; 4 for SDs 2,4,6,7,9,11,12,18,22,27,29; 3 for SDs 1,3,24,30; 2 for SDs 28,31.

Superdelegates

Clinton (20): Reps. Rubén Hinojosa, Sheila Jackson Lee, Joaquin Castro, Henry Cuellar, Gene Green, Eddie Bernice Johnson, Marc Veasey, Filemon Vela Jr., and Al Green (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/), Katie Naranjo, Royce West, Jose Rodriguez, Montserrat Garibay (http://valleycentral.com/news/local/the-list-90-texas-democrats-endorse-hillary-clinton), Dennis Speight, Lenora Sorola-Pohlman, Betty Ritchie (http://www.texastribune.org/2016/02/12/clinton-bolsters-texas-campaign/), Rafael Anchia (http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2016/02/texas-state-rep-rafael-anchia-to-endorse-hillary-clinton.html/), Rep. Lloyd Doggett (http://www.texastribune.org/2016/02/28/lloyd-doggett-to-be-hillary-clinton-superdelegate/), Chair Gilberto Hinojosa (http://www.statesman.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/hot-trump-cruz-race-propels-record-gop-turnout-in-/nqcNz/), Garnet Coleman (http://www.kfdi.com/news/national/democracy-2016/superdelegates-put-clinton-on-path-to-clinch-before-california)

Uncommitted (9): Rep. Beto O'Rourke, Carol Guthrie, Lorraine Miller, Henry Munoz (Clinton 2008), Senfronia Thompson, John Patrick, Glen Maxey, Yvonne Davis, Vice Chair Fredericka Phillips

The Green Papers: TX-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/TX-D)

Vermont (D)

Overview
26 Delegates (0.55% of total)
Open Primary
3 At-Large
2 PLEO At-Large
11 CD
10 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 3, 2, and 11 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.

Superdelegates

Clinton (4): Ex-DNC Chair Howard Dean, Billi Gosh (http://theweek.com/speedreads/440674/howard-dean-endorses-hillary-clinton-president-need-mature-seasoned-leader), Gov. Peter Shumlin, Sen. Pat Leahy (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/)

Sanders (6): Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rich Cassidy (http://www.rutlandherald.com/article/20151114/THISJUSTIN/151119750), Rep. Peter Welch (http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/politics/2016/02/19/rep-peter-welch-supports-bernie-sanders/80614844/), Chair Dottie Deans, Vice Chair Tim Jerman, Jim Condos (http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/2016/03/08/three-vermont-superdelegates-pledge-bernie-sanders/81484706/)

Pat Leahy says he will vote for the pledged delegate winner (http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4863/); as that's overwhelmingly likely to be Clinton, I'm keeping him in the Clinton camp for now.

The Green Papers: VT-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/VT-D)

Virginia (D)

Overview
109 Delegates (2.29% of total)
Open Primary
21 At-Large
12 PLEO At-Large
62 by CD
14 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 21 and 12 delegates are allocated based on the statewide vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 8 for CDs 3,8; 7 for CD 11; 6 for CDs 4,10; 5 for CDs 1,2,5,7; 4 for CD 6; 3 for CD 9.

Superdelegates

Clinton (13): Gov. Terry McAuliffe, Sen. Mark Warner, Sen. Tim Kaine, Rep. Gerry Connolly, Rep. Don Beyer, Rep. Bobby Scott, Chair Susan Swecker, Sandra Brandt, Frank Leone, Jennifer McClellan, George Wallace, Alice Germond (http://augustafreepress.com/top-virginia-democrats-line-up-behind-hillary-clinton-presidential-campaign/), Vice Chair Fred Hudson (http://www.fredericksburg.com/news/politics/of-virginia-democratic-superdelegates-back-clinton/article_f20b2dc0-8a1b-11e5-8268-83b2b3dd36b4.html)

Uncommitted (1): Doris Crouse-Mays

The Green Papers: VA-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/VA-D)

Colorado (D): March 1

Overview
78 Delegates (1.64% of total)
Closed Caucus
14 At-Large
9 PLEO At-Large
43 by CD
12 Superdelegates

At the Caucus

Colorado has a caucus system; like many such systems, it has its own idiosyncrasies.  Unlike in Iowa, a Preference Poll is taken and the raw vote totals are reported to the media.  There is no form of re-caucusing, not that it matters much in a two-person race.  After the Preference Poll, each preference group elects delegates to County Conventions, their number proportional to their result in the Preference Poll.  Some smaller counties elect delegates directly to the CD/State Conventions on March 1.

County Conventions (through March 26)

These conventions elect delegates to the CD and State Conventions, again on a proportional basis.  Strangely, the threshold here is 30%, not 15%; this may be in conflict with national DNC rules.  

CD Conventions: April 1-15

The CD conventions, in early April, allocate these delegates proportionally based on a vote in each CD convention.  The number of delegates per district is: 8 for CD 1; 7 for CD 2; 6 for CDs 3,6,7; 6 for CDs 4,5.

Some language in the Delegate Selection Plan seems to imply that the CD delegates are bound based on the March 1 result, but this is contradicted strongly by other sections of the Plan.

State Convention: April 16

The State Convention chooses the 14 At-Large and 9 Pledged PLEO delegates, allocated proportionally based on a vote of State Convention delegates.  These results may differ somewhat from an allocation based on the March 1 vote, due to the multi-tiered caucus/convention structure.

Superdelegates

Clinton 10 - Uncommitted 2

This count comes from the Bloomberg tracker. (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/)

Confirmed Clinton (9): Gov. John Hickenlooper, Sen. Michael Bennet, Rep. Diana DeGette, Rep. Ed Perlmutter, Rep. Jared Polis, Ex-DNC Chair Roy Romer, Bianca O'Leary, Mannie Rodriguez (http://blog.4president.org/2016/2015/10/hillary-clinton-campaign-announces-hillary-for-colorado-minnesota-and-virginia-leadership-councils.html), Anthony Graves (http://www.rawstory.com/2016/02/denvers-black-clergy-to-rally-support-for-bernie-sanders-ahead-of-colorado-caucuses/)

Other DNC (3): Chair Rick Palacio, Vice Chair Beverly Ryken, Lisa Padilla

Denver Mayor Michael Hancock (associated with the National Conference of Democratic Mayors) was a superdelegate pledged to Clinton, but is apparently no longer a superdelegate.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: CO-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/CO-D)
CO Delegate Selection Plan (http://coloradodems.ngpvanhost.com/sites/coloradodems/files/CDP%20DSP%202016%20Final_0.pdf)

I wouldn't characterize Texas as being a closed primary state. Texas does not have partisan registration. Voters are restricted to participating in the nominating activities of one party, including the primary, runoff primary, and conventions. When one votes, a voter does not pledge fealty to a party, but only that they have not voted in the primary of another party. This affiliation only lasts through the remainder of the election year, and for most practical purposes through the runoff primary. Any special elections do not have partisan primaries.

Texas primaries are conducted by the political parties. On election day, the primary of each party may be held in different locations. If they are at the same location, they will be held in different rooms. A voter is quite free to go to the Republican polling place or the Democratic polling place, but not both.

Early voting, which starts tomorrow, is conducted by the county election officials. When you go to an early polling location, you will be asked which primary you wish to vote in. If you have your voter registration card (which are newly printed every two years), it will be stamped with your new affiliation.

Thanks for the clarification!

The AP has conducted a new survey of superdelegates, and their new count shows:

449 Clinton - 19 Sanders

This is a pretty large change from their November survey, which found a 359-8 lead for Clinton.

Versus our current count (434-14), not a huge difference, only a few Clinton supporters slipping through the cracks.  Interesting is the uptick in Sanders support...who are these 5 secret Sanders supporters?  You'd think the Bernie supporters would have posted them all over the internet by now.

EDIT: math fail.

The projected Clinton victory in Nevada means that Clinton should win 19 delegates to Sanders' 16.

This only changes if Clinton should break 58.3% in CDs 2,3, or 4, or Sanders wins CD 1 (or the state).

Doing rough estimates it looks as if Bernie will win the Second district. 

It's a 6-delegate district, so it doesn't matter who wins unless anyone breaks 58.3%.

I didn't know the 2nd was only 6 delegates.  So yeah it will be a 3-3 split.

Calling all 50 delegates in SC for Trump.

So far these are the Republican Vote Totals:
Trump: 384,808
Cruz: 249,126
Rubio: 238,656
Kasich: 104,484
Carson: 77,057

Jeb's Delegates

With Jeb out of the race, what happens to his four (4) delegates?  His sole delegate in Iowa remains bound to him, but his three in New Hampshire are effectively released.  This increases the number of effective "superdelegates" in the Republican race from 15 to 18.  We should hopefully know who the three of them are within a few weeks.

So far, out of the 103 delegates:

Trump: 67 (65.0%)
Cruz: 11 (10.7%)
Rubio: 10 (9.7%)
Kasich: 5 (4.9%)
Carson: 3 (2.9%)
Uncommitted (dropped out candidates): 7 (6.8%)

According to the Green Papers Hillary is currently at 58.6% in CD 4.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NV-D

Not sure where they are getting their numbers but if it holds the final total would be Hillary 20, Bernie 15.

Thanks!  Moved a delegate from Bernie to Uncommitted until I can verify this.  It may also be close enough that it's the sort of thing that could be undone at later stages of the caucuses due to the multi-stage process, so I'll try to check that out once I have access to precinct-level results.

If Clinton does win the delegate here, it means that according to my count she's negated Sanders' huge win in New Hampshire---or retakes the lead, if she wins that last pledged delegate in Iowa as well.

After digging through the precinct numbers and running through the later stages of the delegate math, Clinton winning the 4th delegate in CD 2 seems assured.  Exactly how the delegates sent from the Clark County Convention to the State Convention are divided up among the Congressional Districts is not perfectly clear, but it doesn't really matter.  Clark County so dominates CD 4, and the number of delegates at the state convention is so large (1 per every 150 registered Democrats) that Hillary cannot lose her slim margin there based on rounding errors or the like.

Sanders' real hope here is differential turnout.  Because the number of delegates at the State Convention is so large, if the Sanders people are just more motivated to show up, they might be able to flip the delegate.  But it's a relatively tall order; effectively, they need 10 Clinton delegates (out of around 600) not to show up, relative to the number of Sanders absences.  But the Convention is on a weekend (May 14-15), presumably is in Las Vegas, and there are alternates.  Barring Paulista-style shenanigans, Clinton is winning that delegate, and I'm allocating it to her on the main page.

https://twitter.com/FHQ/status/701850670610194436
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2016-republican.html?platform=hootsuite

Final tally is Trump 11, Kasich 4, Cruz 3, (Bush 3), Rubio 2

Rubio stays losing.

This was my initial call and, in my mind, the only correct interpretation of NH statutes; only changed my call when literally every single source contradicted it. Apparently I should have stuck to my guns here.

I don't think that's right- likely carried from the previous (Texas) post.

Awesome thread though- very helpful!

Thanks for the catch!

On the superdelegate front: the folks at Vox (http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/2/22/11070364/list-all-superdelegates) got their hands on a list of all the superdelegates. (https://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6070545/Unpledged_as_of_1.21.16.0.pdf)

There's still clearly a couple errors/out-of-date information, but it's a vast improvement over the scrabbled-together list I had before.  There's only around two truly unknown delegates now: who (if anyone) has replaced Sheldon Silver in his DNC slot, and who's replaced ex-Houston Mayor Annise Parker at the National Conference of Democratic Mayors?

Kansas (R): March 5

Overview
40 Delegates (1.62% of total)
Closed Caucus
25 At-Large (Proportional, 10% threshold)
12 District (Proportional, 10% threshold)
3 RNC Members (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

Statewide, 25 delegates are bound as a result of the caucus vote.  All candidates receiving at least 10% of the statewide vote receive a share of the delegates proportional to their share of the vote among all candidates meeting the threshold.  Delegates are allocated starting with the winner and proceeding down the candidates in order of number of votes received, with all fractional delegates rounded up, until all 25 delegates are allocated.

The same procedure takes place for the three delegates in each of Kansas's four Congressional Districts.  Here is where the rounding rules really come into play.  If the winner receives more than one-third (33.33%) of the vote among candidates meeting the threshold, he would receive 2 delegates, with the second place finisher receiving one.  Otherwise, the top three candidates meeting the threshold would each receive one delegate.  Here's where Kasich could play an interesting role; a strong (>10%) fourth place finish in a number of Congressional Districts wouldn't net him any delegates, but might swing delegates from first place to third place.

The three automatic RNC member delegates are, in the KS GOP rules, slated to be bound to the winner of the caucus.  It's not clear whether this is in violation of rules requiring proportionality before March 15; possibly, the three delegates will be pooled together and allocated with the other At-Large delegates, though I doubt it.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are selected by the Congressional District Conventions and the State Committee Convention in April and May.

Results (3/5)

Cruz 24 - Trump 9 - Rubio 6 - Kasich 1

In the unlikely event the RNC members are allocated with the rest of the At-Large delegation, Trump and Kasich each gain one at Cruz's expense.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound until released by their candidate.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: KS-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/KS-R#0305)
Frontloading HQ: KS (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/01/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_7.html)
KS Delegate Allocation: GOP (http://www.scribd.com/doc/294701752/2016-KSGOP-delegate-allocation-rules)

Kentucky (R): March 5

Overview
46 Delegates (1.86% of total)
Closed Caucus
46 At-Large (Proportional, 5% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

All 46 delegates are bound as a result of the caucus vote.  All candidates receiving at least 5% of the statewide vote receive a share of the delegates proportional to their share of the vote among all candidates meeting the threshold, rounded to the nearest whole number.  In the event this results in too many or too few delegates being allocated due to rounding, a delegate is given to (or taken away from) the candidate closest to (or furthest from) receiving another delegate.

Results (3/5)

Trump 17 - Cruz 15 - Rubio 7 - Kasich 7

Delegate Selection

Delegates are selected by the Congressional District Conventions and the State Convention in April and May.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate dies or withdraws, where withdraws in this case means "notice in writing by the candidate to the chairman of the Kentucky delegation prior to the first ballot."

After a candidate withdraws, the delegation as a whole meets and casts a secret ballot for presidential preference.  This ballot binds any delegates which became Uncommitted, in a proportional manner.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: KY-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/KY-R)
Frontloading HQ: KY (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/01/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_9.html)
KY Delegate Allocation: GOP (http://www.scribd.com/doc/294928081/2016-KYGOP-delegate-allocation-rules)
Kentucky Revised Statutes (http://www.lrc.ky.gov/statutes/statute.aspx?id=27674)

Louisiana (R): March 5

Overview
46 Delegates (1.86% of total)
Closed Primary
28 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold)
18 District, (Proportional)

Delegate Allocation

The 28 At-Large delegates (including the 3 RNC members) are bound as a result of the primary vote.  All candidates receiving at least 20% of the statewide vote receive a share of these delegates proportional to their share of their total vote.  These will be rounded by the Executive Committee; they may have some leeway to do so, but I will assume they are rounded to the nearest whole number.

Note that this means that, assuming some candidates don't meet the threshold, there will be delegates left over that are not allocated to any candidate.  The Louisiana rules explicitly provide for this, and say that these delegates will be uncommitted.  Louisiana has thus found a sneaky way to give their State Convention real influence over the results from their state without doing away with their Primary entirely.  It's possible this provision is in violation of national GOP rules, but I think they technically got away with it.

In each of Louisiana's six Congressional Districts, three delegates are allocated proportionally.  There is no threshold at the CD level, and rounding rules are unspecified.  Unless Louisiana adopts a Kansas-type system (where all fractions are rounded up), this is likely to result in the top three candidates in each CD each getting a delegate, unless the winner receives a majority, in which case the delegates would break 2-1.

Results (3/6)

The At-Large delegates break down

Trump 12 - Cruz 11 - Uncommitted 5.

The CD delegate results have been confirmed to be

Trump 6 - Cruz 7 - Rubio 5.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention on March 12.  Candidates provided a list of approved delegate candidates, which the State Convention chooses from.  They also choose any Uncommitted At-Large delegates left over after the allocation above.

The delegates attending the State Convention are chosen entirely by the Republican State Central Committee.

Delegates

Trump (18)
[1] Jay Batt
[2] Andrew Bautsch
[3] Adrian Bruneau
[4] Collin Buisson
[5] Michael Chittom
[6] Jeff Crouere
[7] Mike Fesi
[8] Fenn French
[9] Jeff Giles
[10] Gena Gore
[11] Duke Lowrie
[12] Eric Skrmetta - Trump (http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/03/28/donald-trumps-louisiana-team-attended-secret-meeting-state-party-official-says/)
[1-1] Lynn Skidmore
[2-1] Jennifer Madsen
[3-1] Patti Carter
[4-1] Diane Long
[5-1] Kay Kellogg Katz
[6-1] Penny Vidrine

Cruz (18)
[1] Michael Bayham
[2] Charlie Buckels
[3] Zach Dasher
[4] Joy Duhon
[5] Kim Fralick
[6] Louis Gurvis Jr.
[7] Tony Perkins
[8] Bob Reid
[9] Franz Robinson
[10] Michael Sims
[11] Ed Tarpley
[1-1] Tina Payton
[2-1] Gregory Neff
[3-1] Gwen Bowen
[4-1] Sandra McDade
[4-2] Michael Vergis
[5-1] Frank Black
[6-1] Jonathan Davis

Rubio (5) (now Uncommitted)
[1-1] Stephanie Berault
[2-1] Robert Williamson
[3-1] Jennifer LeBlanc
[5-1] Luke Letlow
[6-1] Leslie Tassin Sr.

Uncommitted (5)
[1] Rhett Davis (likely Jonathan's father?)
[2] Jason Doré [Executive Director]
[3] Ross Little Jr. [National Committeeman] - Cruz (https://www.facebook.com/events/1086903031349338/?active_tab=highlights)
[4] Roger Villere, Jr. [State Chairman]
[5] Lenar Whitney [National Committeewoman - Cruz (https://twitter.com/kevinboyd1984/status/710169992847892481)

Reportedly, many (if not all) of the others are for Cruz as well, (https://twitter.com/CajunCampbell/status/710172040674672640) as Cruz had a supermajority at the State Convention.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

The non-Uncommitted delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate ends or suspends their candidacy.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: LA-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/LA-R)
Frontloading HQ: LA (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/01/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_19.html)
LA Delegate Allocation: GOP (http://www.scribd.com/doc/295998010/2016-LAGOP-delegate-allocation-rules)
Louisiana Caucus Results (http://www.lagop.com/caucus)
Elected Delegates (http://www.lagop.com/blog/2016/3/15/dg5eqgxw8gbikyg6co9ncc6j6cbqlp)

But if a candidate gets more than 50% in a CD, won't they round up to two delegates, with second place getting 1 delegate?

Certainly.  My "likely" was (far too short) shorthand for "assuming no one gets a majority."  I'll edit the post to clarify.

Maine (R): March 5

Overview
23 Delegates (0.93% of total)
Closed Caucus
23 At-Large (Proportional, 10% threshold; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If any candidate receives a majority of the vote, they receive all 23 delegates.  Otherwise, candidates receive delegates proportional to their share of the caucus vote among all candidates meeting a 10% threshold.  The rounding rules are a bit contradictory here.  One section says fractional delegates are rounded up, starting with the winner and proceeding down; the next section says they are rounded to the nearest whole number, with any rounding errors compensated for by adding (removing) a delegate to the candidate closest to (furthest from) an additional delegate.  I will be choosing to go with the first section unless I hear otherwise; FHQ agrees.

Results

Cruz 12 - Trump 9 - Kasich 2

These results confirm that the fractional delegates are rounded up.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention on April 21-23.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot unless their candidate withdraws.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: ME-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/ME-R)
Bangor Daily News (http://bangordailynews.com/2016/02/07/the-point/how-maines-republican-and-democratic-caucuses-will-work/)
ME GOP Delegate Allocation Rules (http://www.scribd.com/doc/300075908/2016-MEGOP-delegate-allocation-rules)
Frontloading HQ: ME (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/02/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_28.html)

Puerto Rico (R): March 6

Overview
23 Delegates (0.93% of total)
Open Primary
23 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If any candidate receives a majority of the vote, they receive all 23 delegates.  Otherwise, candidates receive delegates proportional to their share of the caucus vote among all candidates meeting a 20% threshold.  Rounding rules are unknown.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are elected directly on the ballot.  All candidates still in the race have a full slate of delegates.

Results

Rubio won a majority of the vote and all 23 delegates.  The list of his delegates can be found on the Sample Ballot (http://ballot-access.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/puerto-rico-primary-ballot.pdf).

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are apparently bound on the first ballot only.  A PR GOP source (https://twitter.com/LbrtyNews/status/713394337069928448) says candidates may release their delegates.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: PR-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/PR-R)
Sample Ballot (http://ballot-access.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/puerto-rico-primary-ballot.pdf)

Hawaii (R): March 8

Overview
19 Delegates (0.77% of total)
Closed Caucus
10 At-Large (Proportional, no threshold)
6 District (Proportional, no threshold)
3 RNC (Proportional, no threshold)

Delegate Allocation

The 10 At-Large delegates are allocated proportionally based on the results of the caucus.  Starting with the winner, each candidate receives a share of delegates equal to his share of the total vote among FEC-registered candidates, rounding up both fractional percentages and fractional delegates, until all delegates are allocated.

The same procedure applies for the three delegates in each CD, and for the 3 RNC members.  In practice, this means that if the winner breaks 33% of the vote, he gets 2 delegates to the runner-up's one; otherwise the top three candidates each receive a delegate.

Results (3/9)

Trump 11 - Cruz 7 - Rubio 1

This gives Trump another Rule 40 state; this is his 7th out of the needed 8.

Delegate Selection

The candidates choose their own delegates, essentially.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless their candidate withdraws.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: HI-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/HI-R)
HI GOP Delegate Allocation Rules (http://www.scribd.com/doc/296096085/2016-HIGOP-delegate-allocation-rules)
Frontloading HQ: HI (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/01/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_21.html)

Idaho (R): March 8

Overview
32 Delegates (1.29% of total)
Closed Primary
32 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate wins a majority of the primary vote, they receive all 32 delegates.  Otherwise, each candidate breaking a 20% threshold receives a share of the delegates proportional to their share of the total vote; The Green Papers says fractional delegates are rounded to the nearest delegates.  Delegates that would go to under-threshold candidates are instead allocated proportionally among the threshold-meeting candidates; whether this means they are repooled or not is unclear.  The Green Papers says the Nominating Committee will have final say over any residual rounding error issues.

Results (3/9)

Cruz 20 - Trump 12

There's little room for leeway in the rounding rules here; this count seems relatively guaranteed.  Cruz picks up his 4th Rule 40 state, out of the necessary 8.

Delegate Selection

The candidates choose 80% of their own delegates by early May; the remaining 20% are chosen by a State Nominating Committee.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless their candidate withdraws, dies, or releases his delegates.  If a candidate withdraws or releases his delegates before the Idaho State Convention (June 2-4), or fails to provide a list of delegates, the State Convention chooses them instead and they will be officially Uncommitted.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: ID-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/ID-R)
ID GOP Delegate Allocation Rules (http://www.scribd.com/doc/296409914/2016-IDGOP-delegate-allocation-rules)
Frontloading HQ: ID (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/01/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_25.html)

Michigan (R): March 8

Overview
59 Delegates (2.39% of total)
Closed Primary [though affiliation may be switched at the polls]
59 At-Large (Proportional, 15% threshold; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate wins a majority of the primary vote, they receive all 59 delegates.  Otherwise, each candidate receives a share of the delegates equal to their share of the vote among all candidates reaching a 15% threshold.  Rounding errors are compensated for by giving a candidate to the winner or taking it from the lowest-place finisher, as necessary.

Results (3/9)

Trump 25 - Cruz 17 - Kasich 17

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention April 8-9.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless their candidate withdraws, dies, suspends his campaign, or releases his delegates.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MI-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MI-R)
RNC Process Book (http://www.scribd.com/doc/294928557/2016-Presidential-Nominating-Process-Book-version-2-0-Dec-2015-pdf)
FHQ: MI (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation.html)

Mississippi (R): March 8

Overview
40 Delegates (1.62% of total)
Open Primary
28 At-Large (Proportional, 15% threshold)
12 District (Winner-Take-Most; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

In each of the four Congressional Districts, the winner receives two delegates and the runner-up receives one.  If the winner gets a majority of the vote in the CD, he receives all three delegates, instead.

Statewide, each candidate receives the same share of the 28 At-Large delegates as their share of the vote among all candidates meeting a 15% threshold, rounded to the nearest whole number. FHQ claims that in case of an overallocation of delegates, a delegate is removed from the lowest-placed qualifying candidate; in case of an underallocation of delegates, that one delegate is Uncommitted.

Results (3/9)

Cruz seems to have kept Trump under the 50% WTA threshold all of the CDs, resulting in a count of

Trump 24 - Cruz 16

It's especially close in CDs 2,3, and 4, where Trump seems to be on track for 49% of the vote in each.  Trump certainly does not have a majority in CD 4, and CD 3 likewise seems out of reach.  CD 2 is still a definite possibility, and will depend on the breakdowns in Hinds and Madison counties.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention May 13-14.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound until their candidate releases them.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MS-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MS-R)
FHQ: MS (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_8.html)
MS GOP Delegate Allocation Rules (http://www.scribd.com/doc/303169521/2016-MSGOP-Delegate-Allocation-Rules)

Virgin Islands (R): March 10

Overview
9 Delegates (0.36% of total)
Closed Caucus
6 Directly Elected Delegates
3 RNC Members (unbound)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

Caucus attendees vote directly for delegate candidates on their ballots.  Each attendee gets six votes, and the top six vote-winners are duly elected.

Note that the ballot (http://usvigop.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Official-Ballot-Republican-Party-of-the-USVI-2016V3.pdf) has 10 Carson delegates, 6 Cruz delegates, 3 Rubio delegates, 3 Trump delegates, and 20 Uncommitted delegates.  Trump, Rubio, and Kasich do not have full delegate slates.

RNC Members

John Canegata
Lilliana Belardo de O'Neal
Holland Redfield III

As the Virgin Islands never directly holds a presidential preference vote, its RNC members are not bound.

Results (3/11)

The following six delegates were elected, all Uncommitted:
[1] John Yob*
[2] Gwendolyn Brady
[3] Warren Cole
[4] Erica Yob*
[5] George Logan
[6] Lindsey Eilon*

* These three people moved to the Virgin Islands quite recently specifically to become delegates.  Due to their short period of residency here, their eligibility to be delegates is contested and is the subject of an ongoing court case.  The Yobs appear to have won the court case so far, but further appeals may be possible.

After losing the court case, John Canegata decided to try to throw out all 6 elected delegates based on a patently incorrect reading of a technicality.  More discussion can be found here. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.msg4986620#msg4986620).  If this does hold (I expect it will not), these six alternates will be seated instead:

[A-1] David Johnson - Uncommitted
[A-2] Valerie Stile - Rubio
[A-3] Andrea Moeckel - Uncommitted
[A-4] Huberto O'Neal - Rubio
[A-5] Steven K. Hardy - Trump
[A-6] Robert Max Schanfarber - Cruz

The rules support the Yobs here; this is a pretty blatant attempt by John Canegata to steal the election.  Regardless, this is probably going to go to a credentials fight at the convention.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates who listed a preference are bound to that candidate on the first ballot, unless they withdraw prior to the caucus (on March 10).  This means, in particular, that any delegates Rubio wins remain bound to him.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: VI-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/VI-R)
FHQ: VI (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_10.html)
Caucus Ballot (http://usvigop.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Official-Ballot-Republican-Party-of-the-USVI-2016V3.pdf)
VI GOP Caucus Rules (http://usvigop.org/1135-2/)

District of Columbia (R): March 12

Overview
19 Delegates (0.77% of total)
Closed Caucus
19 At-Large (Proportional, 15% threshold; WTA if majority)

At the Caucus

The "caucus" takes place in the Loews Madison Hotel; registered Republicans may vote at any point between 10 AM and 4 PM.

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate wins a majority of the vote, they receive all 19 delegates.  Otherwise, each candidate receives a share of the delegates proportional to their share of the vote among all candidates meeting a 15% threshold.  There are two sections in the DC GOP rules that contradict each other, regarding the rounding.  The first says that all fractional delegates are rounded up; delegates are given out starting with the winner and going down until all delegates are allocated.  The second says that delegates are rounded to the nearest whole number, with rounding errors resolved by giving (or taking) a delegate closest to (furthest from) receiving an additional delegate.  FHQ goes with the latter interpretation; I'm going with the former.

Results

Rubio 10 - Kasich 9

Rubio won a narrow victory over Kasich, with Trump and Cruz falling below threshold.  This is Rubio's 2nd Rule 40 state, after Puerto Rico.

Delegate Selection

The caucus also elects the delegates.  In practice, each candidate has a slate of delegates they want elected, and hand them out to voters in line; there are other delegate candidates not on any of these slates.  The following delegates were elected, with associated slates are listed in parentheses:

1.       Rich Counts (Rubio)
2.       Rina Shah Bharara (Rubio)
3.       Chip Nottingham (Kasich)
4.       Kris Hammond (Kasich)
5.       William Behrens (Rubio)
6.       Holly Greaves (Rubio)
7.       Robert Chamberlin (Rubio)
8.       Betsy Wright Hawkings (Kasich)
9.       Rachel Hoff (Rubio)
10.   Maureen Blum (Rubio)
11.   Brian Walsh (Rubio)
12.   Teri Galvez (Rubio)
13.   Robert Sinners (Kasich)
14.   Christian Berle (Kasich)
15.   Kevin Cain (Rubio)
16.   Tim Costa (Rubio)

No one not on the Rubio or Kasich slates were elected.  Note that this means some Rubio-slate delegates will be bound to Kasich on the first ballot.  The alternates also break down 11-5 Rubio-Kasich.

Candidate Withdrawal / Brokered Convention

Delegates are bound through the first ballot, unless their candidate withdraws.  DC GOP has clarified (https://twitter.com/patmara/status/713050229222678529) that withdraw really does mean officially withdraw; Rubio's suspension does not cut it.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: DC-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/DC-R)
DC Delegate Selection Plan (http://dcgop.com/dc-state-convention/dc-gop-delegate-selection-plan/)
FHQ: DC (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_12.html)

Guam (R): March 12

Overview
9 Delegates (0.36% of total)
Closed Caucus
6 At-Large (directly elected)
3 RNC Members (unbound)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

The caucus, operating as a convention, chooses the six delegates.  They are not officially bound to any candidate.

Elected Delegates

Gov. Eddie Calvo - Cruz
Sen. Frank Blas Jr.
Sen. Tony Ada
Juan Carlos Benitez
Benny Pinaula
Telo Taitague

RNC Members (unbound)

Mike Benito
Margaret Metcalfe
David Sablan

Useful Links
The Green Papers: GU-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/GU-R)

(Very) Preliminary Nevada Results

With 30% reporting...

Candidate	Percent	Delegates
Trump	43.7%	13
Rubio	24.5%	7
Cruz	22.5%	7
Carson	5.7%	2
Kasich	3.6%	1

Trump would gain a delegate if he breaks 45%, lose one if he falls below 41.67%; Rubio or Cruz would gain a delegate if they break 25%, lose one if they fall below 21.67%.  Carson loses a delegate if he falls below 5%; Kasich falls below threshold if he falls below 3.33%.

Update (78.4% reporting): Trump seems to have gained a delegate from Carson, though the margin is only around 40 votes.

Florida (R): March 15

Overview
99 Delegates (4.00% of total)
Closed Primary
99 At-Large (Winner-Take-All)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary receives all 99 delegates.

Delegate Selection

Within a week after the primary, all candidates (not just the winner) provide lists of delegates they would like to send to Cleveland.  These lists are advisory lists only.

81 CD delegates are chosen by CD caucuses and the 15 At-Large delegates are chosen by the FL GOP Executive board from these lists, at some point before June 3.  Note that they are not obliged to choose delegates from the list provided by the winner of the state's primary; they could nominate another candidate's delegates, or (it seems) choose different people entirely.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

The delegates are bound on the first three ballots, unless the candidate withdraws or releases his delegates.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: FL-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/FL-R)
FHQ: FL (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_13.html)
Republican Party of Florida Rules (http://www.scribd.com/doc/303908167/RPOF-Rules-of-Procedures-Sep-2015)

Illinois (R): March 15

Overview
69 Delegates (2.79% of total)
Open Primary
15 At-Large (Winner Take All)
54 District (directly elected)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

A presidential preference poll is on the ballot; the winner of this poll wins all 15 At-Large delegates.  12 of these are chosen at the State Convention on May 22.

Additionally, voters directly vote for 3 delegates running for a slot within their CD; the delegate candidates have their Presidential preference listed on the ballot.  All current candidates have a complete slate of delegates.  The top three delegate vote-getters in each CD get their ticket punched to Cleveland.  Voters are not obliged to vote for delegates who match the candidate they voted for in the preference poll.  Often, there are some personally popular delegate candidates who can get elected on the strength of their name alone (e.g. in 2008, Dennis Hastert, a Romney delegate, was elected in his CD despite a McCain win there in the preference poll).

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Despite what it says in the IL GOP rules, their filing with the RNC indicates that both At-Large and CD delegates are bound at the convention.

FHQ says the At-Large delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate withdraws, and that the CD delegates are bound until released.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: IL-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/IL-R)
IL Delegate Selection Guide (http://static1.squarespace.com/static/52419a36e4b09577ccb6e7a9/t/560d78cae4b02ef1130418b7/1443723562917/ILGOP+Delegate+Selection+Guide.pdf)
RNC Process Book (http://www.scribd.com/doc/294928557/2016-Presidential-Nominating-Process-Book-version-2-0-Dec-2015-pdf)
FHQ: IL (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_38.html)

Missouri (R): March 15

Overview
52 Delegates (2.10% of total)
Half-Open Primary
12 At-Large (WTA; WTA for entire delegation if majority)
40 District (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate receives a majority of the vote, they receive all 52 delegates.  Otherwise, the statewide winner receives 12 delegates, and the winner of each of the 8 CDs receives 5 (not 3!) delegates.

Delegate Selection

24 Delegates are chosen at CD conventions (April 30) and 25 at the State Convention (May 21).  Delegates to these are chosen at April 9 caucuses.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot unless their candidate withdraws, releases them, dies, or "becomes inactive."

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MO-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MO-R)
FHQ: MO (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation14.html)
MO Delegate Selection Guide (https://www.missouri.gop/election-2016/)

I believe the official delegate count right now is:

Trump: 81
Rubio: 17
Cruz: 17
Kasich: 6
Carson: 4

I believe you have Rubios totals incorrect for NH and Nevada where you have him with 2 and 7, respectively. While he received 3 and 8 delegates in each state.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Your link has not been updated to reflect this in NH:
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-primaries/270310-trump-wins-additional-nh-delegate

Your link does correctly show Rubio with 7 delegates in NV, though

In the final few percent of precincts in Nevada, Carson managed to pull ahead of Cruz in the race for the final delegate by about 20 votes.

Final count: Trump 14 - Rubio 7 - Cruz 6 - Carson 2 - Kasich 1.

North Carolina (R): March 15

Overview
72 Delegates (2.91% of total)
Half-Open Primary
72 At-Large (Proportional, no threshold)

Delegate Allocation

Delegates are allocated proportionally to a candidate's share of the vote.  FHQ says rounding is to the nearest delegate.  If this results in too many (or too few) delegates being awarded, remove one from the person furthest from (or closest to) receiving an additional delegate.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at District Conventions in April and the State Convention in May.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot.  There is no provision for releasing delegates before then.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NC-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NC-R)
NC Plan of Organization (http://www.ncgop.org/plan-of-organization/) (not helpful)
FHQ: NC (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_15.html)
NC Delegate Selection FAQ (http://www.ncgop.org/how-grassroots-republicans-control-ncgops-delegate-selection/)

Northern Marianas (R): March 15

Overview
9 Delegates (0.36% of total)
Closed Caucus
9 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

The caucus first has a presidential preference poll; the winner of the poll receives all 9 delegates.  The caucus then elects 6 of the 9 delegates (the other 3 being the automatic RNC member delegates).

Results (3/15):

Trump won all 9 delegates.  This gives him his 8th Rule 40 state, and he is now eligible to have his name placed in for nomination at the National Convention.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot.  If the candidate withdraws before the convention, the delegation meets as a group to decide whom to support on the first ballot.  It is unclear whether such a provision is in conflict with any anti-unit-rule provisions of the RNC rules.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MP-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MP-R)
FHQ: MP (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_48.html)
CMNI Caucus Rules (https://www.facebook.com/gopcnmi/posts/1695760827307960)

Ohio (R): March 15

Overview
66 Delegates (2.67% of total)
Half-Open Primary
66 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary receives all 66 delegates.

Delegate Selection

Candidates pre-approve a slate of delegates; the winner has his slate sent to the National Convention.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

In the absence of any contrary information, we must assume Ohio's delegates are bound indefinitely.  FHQ claims this is still being determined by the OH GOP and the OH SoS.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: OH-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/OH-R)
FHQ: OH (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation-ohio.html)

The first post says the total number of Nevada delegates is 50 but I think it's 30?

American Samoa (R): March 22

Overview
9 Delegates (0.36% of total)
Open Caucus
6 At-Large (directly elected, unbound)
3 RNC members (unbound)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

"The delegates from American Samoa are chosen in such a way so that they best reflect the presidential preference of the Caucus/Convention participants."  This doesn't really mean anything in practice; note that there is no presidential preference poll, to my knowledge, so the delegates are not required to be bound by RNC rules.

The delegates "may be instructed by resolution of the body which elected them as to the disposition of their vote on any business before the National Convention." This presumably includes their vote for a nominee; whether such instruction is binding is unclear.

The American Samoa GOP has clarified on Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/Republican-Party-of-American-Samoa-1449239515382401/?fref=nf) that the delegation will be unpledged (thanks to cinyc for the tip).

RNC Members (unbound)

Utu Abe Malae
Amata Radewagen
Su'a Schuster

Delegates

All are officially unbound, though some have endorsed.

John Raynar - Trump (http://www.talanei.com/news/Trump-appoints-Raynar-as-honorary-campaign-manager/22544212)
Taulapapa William Sword
Charles Warren - Cruz (https://www.tedcruz.org/news/cruz-for-president-announces-chairmen-in-all-five-u-s-territories/)
Tina Ioane
Ann Longnecker
Joan Galea'i Holland

Useful Links
The Green Papers: AS-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/AS-R)

Arizona (R): March 22

Overview
58 Delegates (2.35% of total)
Closed Primary
58 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary receives all 58 delegates.

Results

Trump won the primary and all 58 delegates.

Delegate Selection

The State Convention on April 30 chooses the delegates.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Candidates are bound for the first ballot, unless the candidate withdraws or releases them.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: AZ-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/AZ-R)
Arizona Revised Statutes (http://www.azleg.gov/FormatDocument.asp?inDoc=/ars/16/00243.htm&Title=16&DocType=ARS)
FHQ: AZ (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_19.html)

Utah (R): March 22

Overview
40 Delegates (1.62% of total)
Half-Open Caucus
40 At-Large (Proportional, 15% threshold; 0% threshold if 2 or fewer clear it; WTA if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate receives a majority of the vote, they receive all 40 delegates.  Otherwise, if 3 or more candidates clear a 15% threshold, candidates receive a share of delegates proportional to their vote share among all candidates meeting a 15% threshold.  Otherwise, candidates receive a share of delegates proportional to their vote share.  In both cases, delegates are given out, starting with the winner, with all fractional delegates rounded up, until all delegates are allocated.

Results

Cruz won a majority and all 40 delegates.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention on April 23.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot.  If a candidate is not a candidate before the National Convention, their delegates will be re-allocated proportionally.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: UT-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/UT-R)
FHQ: UT (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation-utah.html)
UT GOP Bylaws (http://www.scribd.com/doc/305328054/2016-UTGOP-delegate-allocation-rules)

Wisconsin (R): April 5

Overview
42 Delegates (1.70% of total)
Open Primary
18 At-Large (WTA)
24 District (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The statewide winner receives 24 delegates.  The winner in each of Wisconsin's 8 CDs receives 3 delegates.

Delegate Selection

Before the primary, the District Executive Committee draws up a list of 20 delegate candidates.  After the primary presents this list to the winner of the district after the primary; that candidate recommends three from that list.  The District Executive Committed then chooses three delegates from that list, "giving due consideration" to the candidate's preference.

The winning candidate (Cruz), along with the State Executive Committee, chooses his At-Large delegates.  Cruz has final approval over the list of their delegates.

Results

Trump won CDs 3 and 7, picking up 6 delegates.  Cruz won the remaining 36 delegates.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound until released or until their candidate receives less than one-third of the votes on a ballot at the National Convention.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: WI-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WI-R)
WI GOP Constitution (https://www.scribd.com/doc/305328153/2016-WIGOP-delegate-allocation-rules)
FHQ: WI (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_26.html)

Fixed.  Thanks!

The state-by-state summaries are now complete until mid-April (next up would be New York's April 19 primary).  Considering the state of the race will presumably be quite different by then, I'm going to hold off on the remainder for a while, unless there's a high demand for them.

A Really Terrible Super Tuesday Forecast

Let's say, that in every CD voting on Super Tuesday, the result is

Trump	34.3%
Rubio	26.8%
Cruz	24.1%
Kasich	10.1%
Carson	4.7%

And let's say that in Texas we flip Trump and Cruz.  You may, of course, take issue with these numbers.  More importantly, the issue is uniformity; Cruz being in third *everywhere* costs him a lot of CD delegates (and similarly for Trump in Texas).

The corresponding delegate results would be (up to some uncertainty about OK's rules):

State	Trump	Rubio	Cruz
Alabama	26	16	8
Alaska	11	9	8
Arkansas	19	13	8
Georgia	45	23	8
Massachusetts	15	12	11
Minnesota	13	12	12
Oklahoma	16	14	13
Tennessee	31	19	8
Texas	13	51	91
Vermont	6	5	5
Virginia	17	13	12
Total	212	187	184

In addition, Kasich picks up 10 delegates (5 VA, 4 MA, 1 MN), and Carson picks up 2 in VA.

We see the importance here of Texas, which could be a huge haul for Cruz.  The fight for second in Texas' CDs is also quite important.

Based on polling in Texas, I think it would make sense to go 1. Cruz 2. Trump 3. Rubio there. This means Super Tuesday results would be:

Trump 250
Cruz 184
Rubio 149

Super Tuesday could be a very embarrassing delegate night for Rubio if he doesn't win a state like Alabama, Georgia, or Tennessee.

As another example, running the numbers with 538's polls-plus forecast (in the states where it's available) and splitting 2nd place in TX CDs evenly gives:

Trump 241
Rubio 173
Cruz 166
Kasich 11
Carson 4

Cruz misses viability (20%) in a number of southern states.

I'm currently working on a Green Papers-based prediction for Super Tuesday.

In reviewing the delegate allocation rules for Minnesota, it seems highly likely that the state will have a nearly 3-way split of delegates...

Green Papers:

"24 district delegates are to be allocated proportionally to presidential contenders based on the caucus results in each congressional district. A mandatory 10% threshold (if no candidate receives 10%, the threshold is 0%) is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at the congressional district level."

"For each candidate who has reached the threshold, starting with the candidate who received the highest number of votes, multiply 3 (delegates per CD) or 14 (delegates statewide) by the number of votes received by that candidate and divide by the total number of votes cast for all presidential candidates who also reached the threshold and round to the nearest whole number."

So if I'm reading this correctly, each candidate will likely start with an 8-8-8 split in congressional district delegates, unless some of the congressional districts are complete blow-outs. I would think that Cruz might be shut out of the Minneapolis district but that otherwise the candidates would have relatively even strength. So, we're likely looking at 8-8-8 or 8-9-7 (T-R-C).

Statewide, with only 14 delegates to allocate, my prediction is 5-4-5 (T-R-C), with Trump edging out Cruz for a win but all three major candidates clustered in high 20s to low 30s.

So that would result in a final delegate allocation of 13-13-12 (T-R-C).

Erc, what is the %age of all Republican delegates who will go into the convention unbound?  According to Upshot here:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/27/upshot/republican-delegate-calculator-how-trump-can-win.html

it's 7%.  Does that sound right to you?  I assume that that consists of the delegates from states that don't hold preference votes like CO/ND/WY, plus the 3 party leaders from each state?  What about the delegates in states that directly elect their delegates, like Illinois?  Are they bound by the presidential preference they list on the ballot?

Fair play to Trump

So, I'm confused about the Wyoming GOP caucus. Green Papers indicates that there is in fact a straw poll associated with the caucus, and this page has results (http://wyoming.gop/straw-poll-results/) for a straw poll of some sort. Seven counties are meeting today, so if they are holding a straw poll, it should be updated today.

Going through this state by state:

• Colorado:  Potentially all 37 delegates could be unbound, though delegate candidates may announce a pledge to a particular candidate, in which case they are bound for the first ballot.  Presumably the 3 RNC members will be unbound.
• North Dakota: All 28 delegates will be unbound.
• Wyoming: Presumably, all 29 delegates will be unbound, though FHQ thinks otherwise, and if they are holding a straw poll as realisticidealist suggests, that will change.
• Louisiana: There's going to be a substantial number (on the order of 6) delegates that are unbound here, due to Louisiana's sneaky rules.
• Virgin Islands: the 3 RNC members are unbound; due to incomplete delegate slates, it's also likely that 3 or more Uncommitted delegates may be elected, as well.
• Guam: All 9 delegates will be unbound.
• American Samoa: Presumably, all 9 delegates will be unbound.
• Illinois: All 54 CD delegates are officially unbound; a preference is listed on the ballot but is not binding.
• Pennsylvania: All 54 CD delegates, being directly elected, are officially unbound; no preference is listed on the ballot.
• West Virginia: Also directly elects its delegates, but their commitments are apparently binding.

That's around 8-10%, depending on what happens in Colorado.

Note how Christie has a substantial result in that straw poll, despite dropping out before the first County Caucus (Niobrara, on 2/16).

I believe this was a straw poll more in the manner of the late Ames' straw poll; see a link from December promoting it here on WY GOP's Facebook feed (https://www.facebook.com/WYGOP/posts/10153786523471810).

If Wyoming does end up reporting some (different) straw poll results from its caucuses, they will have to bind their delegation accordingly.

Major update on the Democratic superdelegates front, taking into account information from the Bloomberg delegate tracker (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/) (which presumably gets its information from the AP).

This means Hillary now has the support of over two-thirds of the superdelegates.

SC-D Delegate Targets

Assuming Clinton places between 50 and 75% of the two-way vote in all CDs:

2-1 split is guaranteed in CD 3.
If Clinton breaks 62.5% in CD 4, she wins 3/4 delegates there.
Clinton would have to break 70% in CDs 1,2,5,7 in order to win 4/5 delegates there.
In CD 6, 56.25% gives her 5/8 delegates, 68.75% gives her 6/8 delegates.

At-Large PLEO: 64.3% would give her 5/7 delegates.
At-Large: 59.1% would give her 7/11, 68.2% would give her 8/11.

Regardless, tonight is the night Clinton takes the pledged delegate lead, permanently.

March 5 Democratic Primaries

Kansas (D)

Overview
37 Delegates (0.78% of total)
Closed Caucus (though registration may be changed at the caucus)
7 At-Large
4 PLEO At-Large
22 by CD
4 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 7 and 4 delegates are allocated based on the statewide caucus vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 7 for CD 2; 6 for CD 3; 5 for CD 4; 4 for CD 1.

Superdelegates

Clinton (1): Teresa Garcia Krusor (http://cjonline.com/news/2016-03-01/news-guide-kansas-holding-democratic-gop-caucuses-saturday)

Uncommitted (3): Chair Lee Kinch, Vice Chair Melody McCray-Miller, Bill Roy Jr.

The Green Papers: KS-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/KS-D)

Louisiana (D)

Overview
59 Delegates (1.24% of total)
Closed Primary
11 At-Large
7 PLEO At-Large
33 by CD
8 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 11 and 7 delegates are allocated based on the statewide caucus vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 8 for CD 2; 6 for CD 5; 5 for CDs 3,4,6; 4 for CD 1.

Superdelegates

Clinton (7): Rep. Cedric Richmond, Chair Karen Carter Peterson, Vice Chair Shane Riddle, Deborah Langhoff, Arthur Morrell, Arlanda Williams (http://uptownmessenger.com/2016/03/majority-of-louisianas-democratic-superdelegates-are-committed-to-clinton-campaign/), Gov. Jon Bel Edwards (https://twitter.com/elizabethcrisp/status/705813437071265792)

Other (1): Ben Jeffers

The Green Papers: LA-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/LA-D)

Nebraska (D)

Overview
30 Delegates (0.63% of total)
Closed Caucus (you may change registration at the Caucus)
5 At-Large
3 PLEO At-Large
17 by CD
5 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 5 and 3 delegates are allocated based on the statewide caucus vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 6 for CDs 1,2; 5 for CD 3.

The caucus vote is binding, although there is the possibility that rounding errors may affect results in the County (May 19-29) and State (June 18) Conventions.

Superdelegates

Clinton (3): Rep. Brad Ashford, Patricia Zieg, Ronald Kaminski (http://nebraskaradionetwork.com/2015/12/31/democrat-hillary-clinton-announces-nebraska-team/)

Uncommitted (2): Chair Vincent Powers, Vice Chair Maureen Monahan

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NE-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NE-D)
NE Delegate Selection Plan (http://www.nebraskademocrats.org/sites/default/files/2016%20Delegate%20Selection%20Plan%20v.5.pdf)

I wouldn't be so hasty to say "permanently". She's obviously expected to do better in the more conservative Southern states, many of which are at stake on Super Tuesday. After that, however, the clear edge goes to Sanders. They're basically tied in the national polls. It's a guessing game as to how discouraged Sanders supporters will be after Tuesday. Hopefully not much.

Sorry, I should refrain from the editorializing in this thread. :)

New York (R): April 19

Overview
95 Delegates (3.84% of total)
Closed Primary
14 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)
81 District (Winner-Takes-Most; WTA if Majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, they receive all 14 at-large delegates.  Otherwise, the delegates are allocated proportional to each candidate's share of the vote among all candidates meeting a threshold of 20%.  Round all fractions to the nearest number; any rounding errors are resolved by giving delegates to the winner or taking them away from the lowest-placed candidate.

In each of New York's 27 congressional districts, if a candidate receives a majority or is the only candidate to clear 20%, they receive all three delegates.  Otherwise, the winner receives 2 and the runner-up receives 1.

Delegate Selection

11 At-Large delegates are chosen by the state committee on May 18; CD delegates are chosen by each CD's subset of the state committee.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless released.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NY-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NY-R)
FHQ: NY (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation-new.html)

Connecticut (R): April 26

Overview
28 Delegates (1.13% of total)
Closed Primary
13 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold; WTA if majority)
15 District (WTA; WTA statewide if majority)

Delegate Allocation

If a candidate receives a majority of the vote, they receive all 28 delegates.  Otherwise, the 13 At-Large delegates are allocated among the candidates proportional to their share of the vote among all candidates meeting a 20% threshold.  Fractions are rounded to the nearest whole number; I believe rounding errors are resolved by awarding delegates to the winner or taking them away from the loser, as appropriate.

If no candidate receives a majority statewide, the winner of each of Connecticut's 5 CDs will receive 3 delegates each.

Delegate Selection

Presidential candidates submit slates of delegates, which are approved by the State Committee.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless released.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: CT-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/CT-R)
CT GOP Bylaws (http://ct.gop/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2016/01/ByLaws15.pdf)
FHQ: CT (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/04/2016-republican-delegate-allocation.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+fhq+%28Frontloading+HQ%29)

Delaware (R): April 26

Overview
16 Delegates (0.65% of total)
Closed Primary
16 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary receives all 16 delegates.

Delegate Selection

The State Convention (April 29-30) chooses the delegates.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate dies, withdraws, or releases them.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: DE-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/DE-R)
DE GOP Rules (http://www.wncdelawaregop.com/State%20Party%20By-Laws/State%20Party%20Rules%202015.pdf)
FHQ: DE (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/04/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_19.html)

Maryland (R): April 26

Overview
38 Delegates (1.54% of total)
Closed Primary
14 At-Large (WTA)
24 District (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary receives all 14 At-Large delegates.  The winner in each of Maryland's 8 CDs receives 3 delegates per CD.

Delegate Selection

The district delegates are directly elected on the ballot; each voter may vote for up to three delegates and the top three are elected.  Each delegate's presidential preference is not listed on the ballot.  11 At-Large delegates are chosen by the GOP State Central Committee on May 14.

Note that Kasich only has 16 delegate candidates, short of a full slate of 24.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first two ballots, unless their candidate releases them or receives less than 35% of the vote on the first ballot.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MD-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MD-R)
MD Delegate Selection Process (http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2016/Md%20Instructive%20Materials%20Delegate%20Selection.pdf)
FHQ: MD (http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/04/2016-republican-delegate-allocation_20.html)

Pennsylvania (R): April 26

Overview
71 Delegates (1.54% of total)
Closed Primary
17 At-Large (WTA)
54 District (directly elected; unbound)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

The winner of the primary receives all 17 At-Large delegates.  14 of them are chosen by the Republican State Committee meeting on May 21.

The three delegates in each CD are directly elected on the ballot.  No presidential preference is listed on the ballot, and they will be completely unbound delegates going into Cleveland.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

The At-Large delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate withdraws, suspends his campaign, or releases them.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: PA-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/PA-R)
List of Delegate Candidates (https://www.pavoterservices.state.pa.us/ElectionInfo/electioninfo.aspx)

Rhode Island (R): April 26

Overview
19 Delegates (0.77% of total)
Half-Open Primary
13 At-Large (Proportional, 10% threshold)
6 District (Proportional, 10% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

In each of Rhode Island's 2 Congressional Districts, delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates receiving at least 10% of the vote.  Should a candidate receive 67% of the vote, they will receive at least 2 delegates.  Otherwise, if at least three candidates receive at least 10% of the vote, the top three candidates receive 1 delegate each.

The 13 At-Large delegates are allocated proportionally among all candidates meeting a 10% threshold, with fractional delegates rounded to the nearest whole number. Both in districts and statewide, exact rounding questions will be clarified by the Nominating Committee of the State Central Committee.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are elected directly on the ballot; presidential preference is listed on the ballot. The presidential campaign had to approve the delegate for them to appear under the presidential candidate's name on the ballot.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

The At-Large delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate releases them.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: RI-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/RI-R)
RI Delegate Selection Plan (http://www.ri.gop/rhode_island_delegate_selection_plan_for_2016_rnc_convention)

South Carolina Results

Clinton on track to win with at least a 40-13 result in delegates here.  One main uncertainty here is CD 6, where Sanders is flirting with the viability threshold, allowing Clinton to pick up up to two more delegates.

Sanders' future memoir title: "Flirting with Viability"

The Green Papers (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/SC-D) has CD breakdowns.

At present, Clinton is at 63.7% and 68.8% in CDs 1 and 2, winning 3/5 delegates in each.  If she breaks 70% in CD 2, she wins another delegate.

In Jim Clyburn's CD 6, Sanders is at 15.06% of the vote, winning 1 out of the 8 delegates.  If he drops below 15%, he loses viability and that last delegate.

Current breakdown is 39-14 for Clinton.

Indiana (R): May 3

Overview
57 Delegates (2.31% of total)
Open Primary
30 At-Large (WTA)
27 District (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary wins all 30 At-Large delegates.

The winner in each of Indiana's 9 CDs wins the 3 delegates in each.

Delegate Selection

The delegates are chosen at CD caucuses and by the State Committee in April (before the primary).

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

The delegates are bound on the first ballot unless their candidate is not placed into nomination at the National Convention.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: IN-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/IN-R)

Nebraska (R): May 10

Overview
36 Delegates (1.46% of total)
Closed Primary
36 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The winner of the primary wins all 36 delegates.

Delegate Selection

The delegates are chosen at the State Convention on May 14.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

The delegates are bound on the first two ballots, unless their candidate receives less than 35% on the first ballot.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NE-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NE-R)

West Virginia (R): May 10

Overview
34 Delegates (1.38% of total)
Half-Open Primary
22 At-Large (directly elected)
9 District (directly elected)
3 RNC Members (WTA)

Delegate Allocation and Selection

The winner of the primary wins the 3 RNC members' bound votes. 

All other delegates are directly elected on the ballot.  In each Congressional District, the top three vote-winners become delegates.  Statewide, the top vote-winner becomes a delegate, and the top seven vote-winners in each CD (no more than two from each county) are elected.

Presidential preference is listed on the ballot alongside each delegate's name, though it does not seem that the Presidential candidates have the ability to vet these delegates.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

It is unclear whether the directly elected delegates are bound; The Green Papers suggests that they are, and the ballot will say that the delegate candidate is "Committed" to a particular Presidential candidate (or Uncommitted).  The national GOP process book (http://www.scribd.com/doc/294928557/2016-Presidential-Nominating-Process-Book-version-2-0-Dec-2015-pdf) uses the language that delegate candidates "may specify intention to be committed to a candidate"; this suggests that they might not be bound. If delegates are bound, it is unclear what circumstances would cause them to become unbound.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: WV-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WV-R)
Running for Office in WV: 2016 (http://www.sos.wv.gov/elections/current/Documents/2016%20RFO%20Final.pdf)
Filed Delegate Candidates (https://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/candidate-search/) (I haven't checked to see if every candidate has a full delegate slate)
Delegate Candidate Filing Form (http://www.sos.wv.gov/elections/forms/Documents/Forms%20-%20Candidate/C-2%20Republican%20Delegate%20to%20National%20Convention.pdf)
WV State Code (http://www.legis.state.wv.us/WVCODE/Code.cfm?chap=03&art=5#05)

Oregon (R): May 17

Overview
28 Delegates (1.13% of total)
Closed Primary
28 At-Large (Proportional, 3.57% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

Delegates are allocated proportionally, with a threshold of one-twenty-eighth (3.57%) of the vote.  It is unclear whether delegates are awarded proportionally to the total vote, or just to the threshold-meeting vote.  Delegates are rounded to the nearest whole number, with rounding errors compensated by giving (taking) a delegate to the candidate closest to (furthest from) receiving an additional delegate.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention on June 4.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first two ballots, unless the candidate releases them or falls below 35% of the vote on the first ballot.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: OR-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/OR-R)

Washington (R): May 24

Overview
44 Delegates (1.78% of total)
Closed Primary
14 At-Large (Proportional, 20% threshold)
30 District (Proportional, 20% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

In each of the 10 CDs, if a candidate receives a majority or is the only candidate to receive 20% of the vote, they receive all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, if only two candidates receive 20% of the vote, the winner gets 2 and the runner-up gets one.  Otherwise, the top three candidates each get 1 delegate.

Statewide, the delegates are awarded proportional to each candidates' share of the vote in the primary, with a 20% threshold.  Rounding details are unknown.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention on May 21 (before the primary).

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound only on the first ballot.  There does not appear to be any provision for a candidate to release his delegates.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: WA-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WA-R)
Washington GOP Delegate Rules (http://seattlegop.org/2016_WSRP_rules.pdf)

California (R): June 7

Overview
172 Delegates (6.96% of total)
Closed Primary
13 At-Large (WTA)
159 District (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The statewide winner receives all 13 At-Large delegates.

The winner in each of the 53 CDs wins 3 delegates each.

Delegate Selection

The candidates choose their delegates.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first two ballots, unless the candidate releases them or receives less than 10% of the votes on the first ballot.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: CA-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/CA-R)

Montana (R): June 7

Overview
27 Delegates (1.09% of total)
Closed Primary
27 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The statewide winner receives all 27 delegates.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention on May 14 (before the primary).

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate is not placed into nomination.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MT-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MT-R)

New Jersey (R): June 7

Overview
51 Delegates (2.06% of total)
Half-Open Primary
51 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

The statewide winner receives all 51 delegates.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are elected as a slate on the ballot; the slate was chosen by the candidate.

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate "declines to participate ... or makes known publicly that he/she no longer seeks the nomination."

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NJ-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NJ-R)

New Mexico (R): June 7

Overview
24 Delegates (0.97% of total)
Closed Primary
24 At-Large (Proportional, 15% threshold)

Delegate Allocation

All 24 delegates are allocated proportionally based on the results of the primary, with a 15% threshold.  Rounding rules are unclear. The relevant New Mexico statute is:


Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention on May 21 (before the primary).

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate dies or pens a "written unconditional release" of his delegates.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NM-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NM-R)

South Dakota (R): June 7

Overview
29 Delegates (1.17% of total)
Closed Primary
29 At-Large (WTA)

Delegate Allocation

All 29 delegates are awarded to the winner of the primary.

Delegate Selection

Delegates are chosen at the State Convention on March 19 (before the primary).

Candidate Withdrawal / Contested Convention

Delegates are bound on the first ballot, unless the candidate withdraws, suspends his campaign, or does not have his name placed in nomination.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: SD-R (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/SD-R)

Maine (D): March 6

Overview
30 Delegates (0.63% of total)
Closed Caucus
5 At-Large
3 PLEO At-Large
17 District
5 Superdelegates

Details

Maine runs a caucus, similar to Iowa's.  Caucuses in each municipality elect delegates to the State Convention (May 6-7).  It is this State Convention which elects Maine's 5 At-Large, 3 PLEO At-Large, and 17 District (10 in CD 1; 7 in CD2) delegates.  Allocation is done via the usual Democratic formulae based on the number of delegates at the State Convention supporting each candidate.

Superdelegates

Clinton (3): Rep. Chellie Pingree, Vice Chair Peggy Schaffer, Maggie Allen (http://blog.4president.org/2016/2015/10/clinton-campaign-announces-hillary-for-maine-oklahoma-and-tennessee-leadership-councils.html)

Sanders (1): Troy Jackson (http://www.pressherald.com/2015/07/04/thousands-expected-to-greet-sanders-in-portland/)

Uncommitted (1): Chair Phil Bartlett

Useful Links
The Green Papers: ME-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/ME-D)
Maine Delegate Selection Plan (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2dIJK7e7-jhOWgxXzlBakp1NUU/view)

March 8 Democratic Primaries

Democrats Abroad (D): March 1 - 8

Overview
17 Delegates (0.36% of total)
Open Primary
9 Regional
3 At-Large
1 PLEO At-Large
4 Superdelegates (8 half-votes)

The Global Primary

Any US Nationals who consider themselves Democrats, reside outside the United States and do not intend to participate in any other primary/caucus may participate in the Democrats Abroad Global Primary.  One can vote in person in many locations around the world from March 1 - March 8; the last physical polling station closes at 8PM EST on March 8 in Pelham, Ontario.  Alternatively, members of Democrats Abroad can vote by mail, fax, or email, starting on January 11.  Emailed or faxed ballots must be received by 6PM EST on March 8; mailed ballots must be received, at the absolute latest, at 7PM EST on March 13.

Details

3 At-Large and 1 PLEO At-Large delegates are awarded based on the global vote.  9 Regional delegates are also awarded based on the vote in each region, with the number of delegates each region receives proportional to the number of votes cast in each region.  The three regions are: Americas, Asia-Pacific, and Europe-Middle East-Africa.

Results

Sanders 9 - Clinton 4

The math on the Democrats Abroad website (http://www.democratsabroad.org/global_presidential_primary_results) is a bit wonky, but the totals are correct (their totals give Clinton gets one fewer At-Large but one more in Asia-Pacific),

Superdelegates

Clinton (2): Stanley Grossman, Caitlin Kraft-Buchman (http://www.fec.gov/finance/disclosure/norindsea.shtml), Bob Bragar, Sandra Loridans (http://www.democratsabroad.org/press)

Sanders (1): Gary Suwannarat, Vice Chair Ken Sherman (http://www.democratsabroad.org/press)

Uncommitted (1): Chair Katie Solon, John Eastwood

The eight superdelegates from Democrats Abroad have a half-vote each; they are the only fractional delegates at the convention.

Useful Links
The Green Papers: DA (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/DA-D)
Global Presidential Primary (http://www.democratsabroad.org/global_presidential_primary)
Delegate Selection Plan (https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/democratsabroad/pages/4724/attachments/original/1449845874/DPCA-Delegate_selection_plan-2016.pdf?1449845874)

Michigan (D)

Overview
147 Delegates (3.08% of total)
Open Primary
28 At-Large
17 PLEO At-Large
85 by CD
17 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 28 and 17 delegates are allocated based on the statewide caucus vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 9 for CDs 13,14; 7 for CDs 5,12; 6 for CDs 1,9,11; 5 for CDs 2,3,4,6,7,8,10.

Superdelegates

Clinton (10): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/22/opinion/stabenow-hillary-clinton/), Sen. Gary Peters (http://twitter.com/Peters4Michigan/status/609826765830234112), Rep. John Conyers (http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2015/07/23/clinton-hauls-first-mich-fundraiser/30555907/), Rep. Sander Levin, Rep. Debbie Dingell, Rep. Dan Kildee (http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/238912-2016-hillary-endorsement-list), Rep. Brenda Lawrence, Jill Alper (http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/06/26/michigan-women-meet-tout-clinton-candidacy/29322273/), Dennis Archer (http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2015/11/13/ap-survey-most-michigan-superdelegates-back-clinton/), Barry Goodman (http://www.fec.gov/finance/disclosure/norindsea.shtml)

Uncommitted (7): Steven Cook, Mary Fleming, Norwood Jewel, Daryl Newman, Virgie Rollins (ex-Biden), Chair Brandon Dillon, Vice Chair Nancy Quarles

The Green Papers: MI-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MI-D)

Mississippi (D)

Overview
41 Delegates (0.86% of total)
Open Primary
8 At-Large
5 PLEO At-Large
23 by CD
5 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 8 and 5 delegates are allocated based on the statewide caucus vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 9 for CD 2; 5 for CDs 1,3; 4 for CD 4.

Superdelegates

Clinton (3): Rep. Bennie Thompson, Chair Rickey Cole, Vice Chair Vallena Greer (http://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2016/01/19/mississippi-democratic-super-delegate-supporting-sanders/79000892/)

Sanders (2): Keelan Sanders (http://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2016/01/19/mississippi-democratic-super-delegate-supporting-sanders/79000892/), Johnnie Patton (https://berniesanders.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Sanders-Publicly-Committed.pdf)

The Green Papers: MS-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MS-D)

The latest batch of states finishes up all the Republican states.  I'll continue releasing Democratic states (roughly 10 days ahead of time) as long as Sanders is in the race and Clinton does not have a majority of the delegates.  (I would bet this happens no later than May 17, and quite possibly earlier).

Today is the last of North Dakota's Legislative District Conventions.  It takes place from 3-5:30 PM CST in Bottineau, ND.  As always, there's been no concrete reports out of these conventions, so we'll have no idea who is doing well in North Dakota until the State Convention on April 2.

On the unbound delegates front....

FHQ clarified via Twitter that the RNC will consider the directly elected IL delegates as bound to the candidate they are listed as supporting on the ballot.  The same, he assumes, will hold true for WV.

This knocks out a substantial fraction of the officially unbound delegates we were considering...not that we would truly expect shenanigans on that front.

Oklahoma Rules

FHQ has clarified one of the open questions for tonight's delegate allocation: the exact method used to allocate delegates in Oklahoma.

The delegates are allocated based on the share of the total vote, not on the share of the threshold-meeting vote.  What was unclear was what would happen with any delegates left over after this procedure (and generically there would be some, given Kasich and Carson's presence in the race).  FHQ has verified that they will be left Uncommitted.  Essentially, any vote for a candidate failing to meet the 15% threshold is a vote for Uncommitted; those delegates will be chosen at the State Convention on May 13/14 and are free to vote their conscience in Cleveland.

New Hampshire, cont.

In other news, the New Hampshire delegate math has attracted some media attention, with this piece in The New York Times talking about it (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/02/upshot/how-new-hampshire-used-the-wrong-math-and-gave-one-of-rubios-delegates-to-trump.html?_r=0).  The New York Times takes a surprisingly hard stance on this one, saying explicitly that the GOP screwed up the math on this one, and that Trump should have 10 delegates to Rubio's 3.

As we've discussed in this thread multiple times, the situation is not that clear cut.  The "double-rounding" procedure discussed is nowhere explicitly spelled out in New Hampshire State Law (http://www.gencourt.state.nh.us/rsa/html/LXIII/659/659-93.htm) and is, in my view, a reach.  That said, the New York Times does interestingly say that the Secretary of State (who normally would have the final say on these things) does favor the double-rounding interpretation, as confirmed by the AP and other sources before the primary.  Now, in this case, the Secretary of State may not have the final say due to the automatic delegates, which he doesn't get to certify.  In any event, this is something to keep an eye on.  As you know, I'm strongly in Trump's camp on this question, and my count will remain Trump 11 - Rubio 2 unless the NH GOP and the NH SoS both say otherwise.  If it comes down to it, Rubio may want to challenge this in the courts or before the Credentials Committee, but I think he'll lose.

Really really preliminary delegate count (including a complete guess in AK and many CDs nationwide);

Trump 267
Cruz 209
Rubio 92
Kasich 21
Carson 3
Uncommitted 3

Trump does slightly better (25-odd delegates) than projected.  Cruz did a lot better than projected, and Rubio simply had an abysmal night.

Updated Republican count:

Trump 258
Cruz 215
Rubio 95
Kasich 21
Carson 3
Uncommitted 3

Open questions include: exact nature of the allocation rules in GA, the rest of the AK results, and various incomplete/missing CD results throughout the South.

On the Democratic side:

Clinton 523
Sanders 342

A very good night for Clinton, despite the loss in Oklahoma.  This gives her a lead of 206 in pledged delegates, roughly twice what Obama ever had over her in 2008.

These numbers are shamelessly cribbed from The Green Papers; I'll take a look in greater detail tomorrow, especially at Super Tuesday's only real caucus state, Colorado.

So are you basically in agreement with this guy on Twitter in terms of how you allocate the Republican delegates from each state?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cch5Rr6WEAEoxh7.jpg:large

I disagree in Georgia (rules issue), Oklahoma (rules issue), Tennessee (for completeness I made an early call in CD 9 despite no data), Texas (different CD results).

Remaining uncertainties from the night:

• Arkansas is still at 96% reporting.  It's possible some of the CD results might change, but I doubt it.
• Georgia.  This one is a mess.  Rounding rules are very unclear, and there's still uncertainty in my mind as to how to allocate the RNC members.
• Oklahoma.  I follow FHQ here in saying that At-Large delegates are doled out proportionally to the candidate's share of the total vote, and that any delegates left over remain Uncommitted.  The Green Papers disagrees.
• Tennessee.  CD results are still incomplete, especially in CD 9 (Memphis).  I've provisionally divided the delegates 2 for Trump and 1 for Cruz, but it's a tight 3-way race in Shelby County overall, so who knows.
• Texas.  CD results are potentially still incomplete, but I doubt the final result will change here.

Carson's Delegates

Carson has earned 8 delegates so far.  His three in Iowa and three in Virginia appear to be bound to him on the first ballot still, though whether that would be enforced is unclear.

In Nevada, Carson has some options.  He may can choose to keep his delegates bound to him, release them, or reallocate his delegates among the other candidates.  If the latter, Trump and Cruz would each gain one delegate.  If he suspends "or otherwise discontinues" his campaign at any point, he loses the option to keep his delegates bound to him.

Even though Carson has not formally suspended his campaign, I'm going to remove his column.

There's still the possibility that Carson does pick up another delegate going forward if he keeps a zombie campaign going...most notably in North Carolina (0.7% could be enough to win him a delegate there).

Northern Marianas (D): March 12

Overview
11 Delegates (0.23% of total)
Closed Caucus (open to all who wish to participate as Democrats; one can register at the caucus)
6 At-Large
5 Superdelegates

Details

6 At-Large delegates are apportioned based on the caucus vote.

Superdelegates

Clinton (5): Del. Kilili Camacho Sablan, Chair Rosicky F. Camacho, Vice Chair Thersita B. Pertduo, John Tunela, Emelia S. Chargualaf (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-wins-northern-mariana-islands-caucus/)

The Green Papers: ME-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/ME-D)

On the same day as the Northern Marianas Caucus are Iowa's County Conventions, whose results may determine who wins the last delegate out of Iowa.  Clinton is still heavily favored.

March 15 Democratic Primaries

Florida (D)

Overview
246 Delegates (5.16% of total)
Closed Primary
140 District
46 At-Large
28 PLEO At-Large
32 Superdelegates

Details

46 At-Large and 28 PLEO At-Large delegates are awarded based on the global vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 8 for CD 24; 7 for CDs 20,21; 6 for CDs 2,5,13,14,16,18,22,23; 5 for CDs 6,7,8,9,10,11,12,15; 4 for CDs 3,4,17,19,26,27; 3 for CDs 1,25.

Superdelegates

Clinton (23): Sen. Bill Nelson, Rep. Patrick Murphy, Rep. Ted Deutch, Rep. Corrine Brown, Rep. Alcee Hastings, Rep. Frederica Wilson, Rep. Kathy Castor, Rep. Lois Frankel, Chair Allison Tant, Vice Chair Alan Clendenin, Jon Ausman, Mitchell Ceasar, Bret Berlin, Joe Falk, Annette Taddeo, Tony Hill, Angel Gomez, Alan Williams, Joyce Cusack, Cindy Lerner (http://blog.4president.org/2016/2015/11/hillary-for-america-announces-florida-and-maryland-leadership-councils.html), Stephen Bittel (http://www.fec.gov/finance/disclosure/norindsea.shtml), Alma Gonzalez (http://twitter.com/FDPMoneygirl/status/697596515162984450), Rep. Gwen Graham (http://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2016/03/07/graham-votes-endorses-clinton/81442342/)

Sanders (2): Rep. Alan Grayson (http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/271135-grayson-endorses-sanders), Nancy C. Jacobson (http://orlando-politics.com/2016/03/04/bernie-sanders-campaign-office-opens-in-orlando/)

Uncommitted (7): Ex-DNC Chair Kenneth Curtis (Clinton 2008), DNC Chair Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Clinton 2008, officially neutral), Katherine Fernandez Rundle, Carlos Odio, Rick Boylan, Alma Gonzales, DNC Treasurer Andy Tobias (officially uncommitted despite donations to Ready for Hillary), Marian Williams

Useful Links
The Green Papers: FL (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/FL-D)
FL Delegate Selection Plan (http://www.scribd.com/doc/299194566/FloridaDemocratic-2016DelegateSelectionPlan-v8-2)

Illinois (D)

Overview
182 Delegates (3.82% of total)
Open Primary
34 At-Large
20 PLEO At-Large
102 by CD
26 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 34 and 20 delegates are allocated based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 9 for CDs 1,7; 8 for CD 2; 7 for CD 9; 6 for CDs 5,12,17; 5 for CDs 3,4,6,10,11,13,16; 4 for CDs 8,14,15,18.

Superdelegates

Clinton (22): Sen. Dick Durbin, Reps. Cheri Bustos, Robin Kelly, Jan Schakowsky, Bill Foster, Luis Gutiérrez, Michael Quigley, Danny Davis, Tammy Duckworth (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/) and Bobby Rush (http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/7/71/1099647/sweet-bobby-rush-2), Laura Ricketts, Jayne Mazzotti, Vice Chair Karen Yarbrough, Carol Ronen, Rajiv Fernando, Steve Powell, John Cullerton, John Keller, Carrie Austin, Jerry Costello (http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/7/71/1285947/hillary-clinton-unveils-key-illinois-democratic-national-committee-backers), James Claybonre (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-hillary-clinton-illinois-superdelegate-20160303-story.html), Iris Martinez (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-cook-county-anita-alvarez-kim-foxx-victor-reyes-20160219-story.html)

Sanders (1): Rep. Dan Lipinski (http://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/superdelegate-rep-lipinski-for-sanders-if-contested-convention/)

Uncommitted (3): President Barack Obama, Chair Michael Madigan, Dan Hynes (O'Malley)

Useful Links
The Green Papers: IL-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/IL-D)
IL Delegate Selection Plan (http://ildems.com/uploads/files/2016-Illinois-Delegate-Selection-Plan-Master-with-Appendix-1.pdf)

Missouri (D)

Overview
84 Delegates (1.76% of total)
Open Primary
15 At-Large
9 PLEO At-Large
47 by CD
13 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 15 and 9 delegates are allocated based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 10 for CD 1; 7 for CD 5; 6 for CD 2; 5 for CDs 3,4,6,8; 4 for CD 7.

Superdelegates

Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/): Clinton 12 - Uncommitted 1

Confirmed Clinton (11): Dick Gephardt, Gov. Jay Nixon, Sen. Claire McCaskill, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, Rep. Lacy Clay, Brian Wahby, Doug Brooks, Sandy Querry, Melba Curls, Vice Chair Darlene Green (http://blog.4president.org/2016/2015/11/hillary-for-america-announces-missouri-and-vermont-leadership-councils.html), Sly James (http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article40438806.html)

Other (2): Chair Roy Temple, Matt Robinson

Useful Links
The Green Papers: MO-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MO-D)
MO Delegate Selection Plan (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bw8qd8A8ZSVLY0RGWFNtMlJkdXc/view)

North Carolina (D)

Overview
121 Delegates (2.54% of total)
Half-Open Primary
23 At-Large
14 PLEO At-Large
70 by CD
14 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 23 and 14 delegates are allocated based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 8 for CDs 1,4,12; 6 for CD 13; 5 for CDs 5,6,9,10; 4 for CDs 2,3,7,8,11

Superdelegates

Clinton [8]: Rep. G.K. Butterfield, Rep. David Price, Rep. Alma Adams (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/), Akilah Ensley (http://www.mooresvilletribune.com/news/clinton-the-early-favorite-among-key-n-carolina-democrats/article_f9fffc96-8a15-11e5-977b-fb9591fb9e5d.html), Jeannette Council (http://www.fayobserver.com/blogs/news/peoples_business/cumberland-county-commissioner-and-superdelegate-endorses-hillary-clinton/article_dbe4c9a8-cabb-11e5-b79f-1381ffb834b3.html), J. David Cox (http://twitter.com/JDavidCoxSr/status/674937744276213760), Olma Echeverri (http://twitter.com/colmapa/status/679321252331438080), Janet Cowell (http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article60243386.html)

Sanders (1): Jake Quinn (http://www.citizen-times.com/story/opinion/contributors/2016/01/29/guest-columnist-breaking-toward-bernie/79511050/)

Uncommitted (5): Chair Patsy Keever, Vice Chair Zack Hawkins, Pat Cotham, Joyce Brayboy, Everett Ward

Useful Links
The Green Papers: NC-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NC-D)
NC Delegate Selection Plan (http://www.scribd.com/doc/299194614/NorthCarolinaDemocratic-2016DelegateSelectionPlan)

Ohio (D)

Overview
160 Delegates (3.36% of total)
Half-Open Primary
31 At-Large
19 PLEO At-Large
93 by CD
17 Superdelegates

Details

Groups of 31 and 19 delegates are allocated based on the statewide primary vote.  The CD delegates are distributed among the CDs as follows: 17 for CD 11; 12 for CD 3; 8 for CDs 9, 13; 4 for CDs 1,2,4,5,6,7,8,10,12,14,15,16.

The 17 delegates for CD 11 (Cleveland-Akron) may be the largest delegate haul for a single CD in the country.

Superdelegates

Clinton (14): Ex-DNC Chair David Wilhelm (http://wdtn.com/2015/11/13/ap-exclusive-democratic-superdelegates-in-ohio-line-up-for-hillary-clintons-presidential-bid/), Sen. Sherrod Brown, Reps. Tim Ryan, Joyce Beatty and Marcia Fudge, Isabel Framer, Jocelyn Bucaro, Mark Mallory, Kathleen Clyde, Pat Frost Brooks, Ronald Malone, Joe Rugola (http://www.ohio.com/blogs/ohio-politics/ohio-politics-1.297397/clinton-s-ohio-team-lined-with-local-leadership-1.662411#.VsNSJ9iQGv0.twitter), Nan Whaley (http://wyso.org/post/ohio-superdelegates-support-clinton-few-holdouts#stream/0), Valerie McCall (http://elections.ap.org/content/superdelegates-put-clinton-path-clinch-calif)

Sanders (1): Rep. Marcy Kaptur (http://www.toledoblade.com/Politics/2016/03/11/Supporters-line-the-block-to-see-Bernie-Sanders-in-Toledo.html)

Uncommitted (2): Chair David Pepper, Vice Chair Rhine McLin

Useful Links
The Green Papers: OH-D (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/OH-D)
OH Delegate Selection Plan (https://ohiodems.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2016-DELEGATE-PLAN-7-15-15-updates.pdf)