Talk Elections

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/trump-strong-three-early-states-clinton-sanders-battle-poll-n505516

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IA: something for everybody

Nothing changed from their previous poll in Iowa and proving how strong Sanders growing lead is in New Hampshire.

Is Rubio having a last minute mini surge in Iowa? He got 16% in the Monmouth poll and he is starting to shoot up on the Huff polling averages now, same with Carson lol

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Does anyone want to bet on a surprise Rubio win in Iowa ?

The quotas on William Hill are good:

1:21

I doubt he'll win, but it would be funny if he snuck into the top two at the last minute, after all this talk of it being a Cruz-Trump race.  I wonder if that would be enough to give him big mo' in New Hampshire, a la Buchanan '96.

In Iowa, on the Dem. side, who leads in…?

Eastern Cities: Clinton +12
East Central: Sanders +3
Des Moines area: Clinton +8
Central: Sanders +6
West: Sanders +6

In Iowa, on the GOP side, who leads among…?

moderates: Rubio
conservatives: Trump
Tea Party supporters: Cruz
Des Moines area: Cruz
all other regions of the state: Trump
college graduate: Cruz
not college graduate: Trump

college graduate:
Cruz 26%
Rubio 24%
Trump 20%

not college graduate:
Trump 42%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 12%

https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/692691283773657088

Among those with whom you can match to a registered voter list in the Marist poll in Iowa, Clinton is up 25. Down 18 among those you can't.

New Poll: South Carolina President by Marist College on 2016-01-26 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4520160126008)

Summary:

Clinton:	64%
Sanders:	27%
Other:	2%
Undecided:	7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/HUB_NBCPolitics_Front/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_South%20Carolina%20Annotated%20Questionnaire_January%202016.pdf)

Do you have a link to where this info came from? I'm not finding it in the press link and I am interested to see how they define the geography of the state. That is not how I expected the map would look, but who knows.

At the bottom of this page, there are links to all the crosstabs:

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/128-trump-leads-in-ia-nh-and-sc-clinton-and-sanders-competitive-in-ia-sanders-up-in-nh-clinton-leads-in-sc/

Click on the "likely Democratic caucus-goers" link for Iowa.

I seriously doubt it, but we might have a surprise when he’s coming in second and the whole thing ends in disaster for The Donald. I think Cruz will win because he seems to have the best organization in IA. This result, I think, could really happen: Cruz 31%, Rubio 24%, Trump 22%, Carson 12%,…. The rest of the pack in single digits

In South Carolina, Democratic race by race:

whites:
Clinton 52%
Sanders 41%

blacks:
Clinton 74%
Sanders 17%

They typically can't match ~60% of respondents, for what it's worth. Even if you don't take into account that you can register to vote at your caucus location (and therefore the candidate doing better among first time voters will underperform on this measurement), there are plenty of reasons why they wouldn't be able to accurately match all respondents to a voter list, even if they are registered

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/IA.html
Wonder what the implications are delegate wise? In 2008 I believe Clinton did well West, Obama well East, so interesting it's reversed now.

Also I would have thought Sanders did better in cities.

Great numbers for Secretary Clinton. It looks like Sanders is still dead in the water after these two ultra-white states that are not at all representative of the beautiful and diverse 2016 Democratic Party.

GLORIOUS polls for MADAME PRESIDENT

NBC/WSJ such CREDIBLE and HIGHLY RESPECTED polling...GOLD STANDARD in the industry...

Well, this somewhat puts the whole "Sanders support is too concentrated in the college cities" myth to rest.

Excellent news for Mr. Sanders for the HillHacks at NBC to have him in a dead heat.

wat

Welp, guess I'm caucusing for Rubio.

Yay

Pretty good numbers for Clinton, except in NH.

Yup. There continues to be zero evidence of significant Sanders movement with blacks. Without that, he can't win the nomination.

I suspect Rubio's ceiling in Iowa is Romney numbers: ~25%

Yes, Hillary has her fire wall. Guess whom perhaps does not. Heck, I'm quite interested to see just how many of them will even bother to actually vote, and walk the walk, rather than just talk the talk.

February 9th is going to be very hard for you.

NH could go Republican for President in a Hillary/[insert Republican] matchup in 2016, and TN Vol would come up with a narrative that ... well, fit his original narrative.

He'll be just fine on February 9th.