Talk Elections

Clinton - 47% (-8%)
Sanders - 42% (+9%)
O'Malley - 6% (No Change)

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/f94fe349-47c3-4af3-86b9-5f50e362d1ec.pdf

Looking good for Clinton in these closing days. Just need to see what Selzer says on Saturday.

Clinton was up 22 points by Monmouth in December. Not the best trajectory for Clinton, but I still think she's pulls out a narrow win.

DOMINATING!

As noted before, every poll of Iowa is really a guess at the turnout scenario. The Clinton+5 number assumes a turnout of 110,000.  They also mapped out a couple of other higher turnout scenarios:


150,000 voters:
Clinton 46%
Sanders 43%

200,000 voters:
Clinton 45%
Sanders 44%

110,000 seems somewhat small.

A 17% collapse in the course of a month isn't really dominating.

Iowa is a must win for Sanders and this does not look good for him. And considering that this caucus is all about geography, it's a big plus that Clinton is better organized.

One thing that is telling is that Sanders did not start performing well in Iowa until after the data breach. Looks like that might not have been enough.

Beating your opponent in one of his top five states, demographically, certainly is.

Iowa really is going to be one of those races where the only poll that matters is on caucus day. With DMR likely to show a statistically tied race in its final poll, the results of Iowa are going to depend mostly on turnout levels and ground game.

Damn, I expected that Clinton would have a double digit margin in this poll...

100,000?  Lower than 2004?  LOLOLOLOLOL! 

This poll also has Clinton and Sanders nearly tied among men. Heh.

Does it?

Lolz.

Can I get a JUNK POLL!?

Here you go. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=224691.0)

Gave me a chuckle m8.

Anyway here are the specific numbers:

Men:
Sanders - 46% (+4)
Clinton - 43% (-4)

Women:
Clinton - 50% (-11)
Sanders - 38 (+11)

Favorabilities:
Candidate - Favorable-Unfavorable (Net)
Sanders - 85-9 (+76)
Clinton - 78-17 (+61)
O'Malley - 50-14 (+36)

Edit: My mistake, women voters are 50-38 Clinton. Thanks Eraserhead, it has been fixed.

Clinton is at 50% among women, not 58%.

Yeah, people really don't seem to realize that Iowa should be Bernie country. Bernie losing it would be equivalent to Clinton losing a Deep South state.

Looking good?? She's collapsing.

I mean, you can call it what you want, but it's pretty clear. One person is winning, and the other one isn't. Sorry, I guess?

Much higher respected QUINNIPIAC has Bernie up 4.  Sorry, Nikki Minasgh.

I don't really get how either side can be confident of victory when they look at this.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-caucus

It's a complete tossup.

True, we find out Monday.

I'm pretty sure the people acting confident of victory are trolling.

If only this f**** thing had been on January 4 like it was supposed to be.

LOL, then people would have paid attention sooner, and this pro Bernie movement would have happened sooner.

If only Supreme Dark Overlord Debbie "Satan Lucifer Hades" Wasserman Schultz moved the date back!

Welcome back, by the way. ;)

I've been meaning to resurrect the old feud: how does it feel to be wrong about Democratic primaries! I told you long ago, last year, that Hillary's support was overstated and you didn't believe me. Yung DFB never forgets, friend. Even if Bernie loses Iowa and New Hampshire, I win!

(sorry but I really wanted to re-litigate this and rub it in, if it means anything, I have a better opinion of Hillary now)

Depends exactly what you mean. I obviously never thought Hillary was going to win by anywhere close to 50 points or whatever. But yeah, I will admit Sanders is doing far better than I ever imagined he would.

I think Clinton has closef the enthusiasm gap she was lacking. When she was losing her lead to Sanders over weekend. Her voters will come out.

Thanks IceSpear :)

All the olds are getting pissed off at their ingrate children for "feeling the Bern." :P