Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls => Topic started by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 03, 2016, 09:03:43 PM



Title: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on February 03, 2016, 09:03:43 PM
Just reported on MSNBC, full poll tomorrow

Trump 25
Cruz 21
Rubio 21
Carson 11
Jebra 5
Kasich 5
Rand 5
Christie 3
Fiorina 3
Gilmore 1
Santorum 0


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: / on February 03, 2016, 09:04:12 PM
Rubio at 21? Not good, not good.

But GILMOREMENTUM???


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: RFayette on February 03, 2016, 09:05:19 PM
PPP did not do a great job at all projecting the Iowa caucuses; I suspect overcompensation may be at play, especially in light of the fact that other polls like Morning Consult do not appear to project this kind of movement.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Pandaguineapig on February 03, 2016, 09:05:46 PM
The Trump may be on the verge of getting Stumped


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Mike Thick on February 03, 2016, 09:06:33 PM
Rubio at 21? Not good, not good.

But GILMOREMENTUM???

fixed

Seriously, I hope this is true.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: mds32 on February 03, 2016, 09:12:19 PM
And suddenly the Trump people around here are speechless.

I wonder what one of the lines will be at the next debate. "Wonder why you decided to show up?"


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Comrade Funk on February 03, 2016, 09:13:49 PM
From TRUMP to trump


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Lief 🗽 on February 03, 2016, 09:14:35 PM
Uh... he's still ahead. And PPP is the kind of poll especially susceptible to swings like this. As long as he wins NH, he'll be fine.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: IceSpear on February 03, 2016, 09:14:53 PM
We'll see what other polls say, but this seems more likely than the Morning Consult poll showing literally no change at all.

Also, lol at Gilmore beating Santorum.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Holmes on February 03, 2016, 09:15:18 PM
I am SHOOK.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 03, 2016, 09:16:17 PM
GLORIOUS POLL


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: mencken on February 03, 2016, 09:18:41 PM
Trump 30%
Cruz 30%
Christie 9%
Rubio 8%
Bush 2%
Paul 2%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 2%
(Carson, Huckabee, Santorum out)

Well I was far off...


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: madelka on February 03, 2016, 09:19:59 PM
TRUMP
YUGE
MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
LOW-ENERGY LOSERS
TRUMP


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 03, 2016, 09:20:58 PM
If this is the actual poll then the change from last PPP poll is:

Trump -9
Cruz +3
Rubio +8
Carson +5
Bush -2
Rand (out) +3
Christie -2
Fiorina -1
Gilmore +1
Santorum -1
Huckabee -4 (he was at 4%)
Jindal -2 (he was at 2%)


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Ronnie on February 03, 2016, 09:21:08 PM
Abandon ship!


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 03, 2016, 09:28:52 PM
If this is the actual poll then the change from last PPP poll is:

Trump -9
Cruz +3
Rubio +8
Carson +5
Bush -2
Rand (out) +3
Christie -2
Fiorina -1
Gilmore +1
Santorum -1
Huckabee -4 (he was at 4%)
Jindal -2 (he was at 2%)


lolwut?


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: HilLarry on February 03, 2016, 09:33:02 PM
and so it begins...


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: weixiaobao on February 03, 2016, 09:36:02 PM
We'll see what other polls say, but this seems more likely than the Morning Consult poll showing literally no change at all.

Also, lol at Gilmore beating Santorum.

Morning Consult show a 3 points drop.  Morning Consult also sucks over all.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Skye on February 03, 2016, 09:37:55 PM
I wonder where does Rand's 5% go to.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on February 03, 2016, 09:41:13 PM
PPP didn't do very well in Iowa. Also LOL at Paul finally getting some momentum when he drops out.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 03, 2016, 09:41:46 PM
I wonder where does Rand's 5% go to.

Most to Cruz most likely.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: EliteLX on February 03, 2016, 09:42:06 PM
What a beautiful, beautiful way to end my night.

Told you Morning Consult (a very average pollster with a history of yuuuuuge inaccuracy and outliers in this cycle's primary polls) was a bunch of fuss.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Phony Moderate on February 03, 2016, 09:42:42 PM
Remember that the supposedly sh**te pollsters were more accurate in Iowa than respected ones such as PPP and Selzer.

Still, this still shows almost 6 in 10 supporting the anti-establishment trio of TRUMP/Cruz/Carson...


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on February 03, 2016, 09:44:52 PM
PPP didn't do very well in Iowa. Also LOL at Paul finally getting some momentum when he drops out.

I think Trump is in decline... but I really don't trust PPPs national polls in particular, their track record is pretty bad.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Broken System on February 03, 2016, 09:59:13 PM
PPP is inaccurate, but the way they are inaccurate is consistent. If one candidate is polling unusually high, they will continue to poll unusually high in every poll.

People theorize that PPP is overcompensating the Trump lead due to their mistakes, but that would be assuming that they are fudging the numbers. So yes, Trump is in decline.

And why is Carson rising? PPP polls show that Carson is the Trump supporters' second choice. Here's an interesting scenario: Trump loses New Hampshire and calls it quits. At this point, Carson would become relevant again.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Higgs on February 03, 2016, 10:03:31 PM


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Xing on February 03, 2016, 10:05:53 PM
Guess it's looking like Cruz vs. Rubio.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: DKrol on February 03, 2016, 10:13:37 PM


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on February 03, 2016, 10:17:51 PM
"WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE PEOPLE OF THIS COUNTRY!?" - The forgotten second half of Donald Trump's quote, never been truer.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Maxwell on February 03, 2016, 10:23:15 PM
()

His message was too inspiration. His gravitas was too great. Americans just like not being great I guess... They must not like winning.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: I Will Not Be Wrong on February 03, 2016, 10:46:18 PM
Great news!


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on February 03, 2016, 11:12:45 PM
PPP=junk. I'll wait for other polls to confirm this.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Bull Moose Base on February 03, 2016, 11:25:13 PM
Non-story even if true.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Asian Nazi on February 03, 2016, 11:36:06 PM
PPP=junk. I'll wait for other polls to confirm this.

Can't believe I'm agreeing with this guy but yeah


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: The Mikado on February 04, 2016, 12:02:50 AM
Trump may be shedding his soft support for now, but his core is staying with him, and should he win NH, he can recover. At the moment looks like it's solidifying into a three-man race, which isn't the worst thing in the world for him. Trump can win a three-way race once it gets going...a two way would be difficult, though. If he wins NH by a reasonable margin and blocks Rubio's upswing and he and Cruz are 1st and 2nd in SC, we'd be back into a pretty favorable situation for Trump.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Broken System on February 04, 2016, 12:33:16 AM
PPP=junk. I'll wait for other polls to confirm this.

Can't believe I'm agreeing with this guy but yeah

I'm not saying we can trust the polls, but if you continue to merely predict everything you want to happen, it will be a repeat of you after Iowa. Groundhog Day will come over and over again.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Sir Mohamed on February 04, 2016, 03:38:33 AM
Trump's downfall has begun.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Eraserhead on February 04, 2016, 04:11:53 AM
PPP=junk. I'll wait for other polls to confirm this.

Can't believe I'm agreeing with this guy but yeah

Their Iowa polls were pretty dreadful, weren't they?


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Zanas on February 04, 2016, 05:39:07 AM
Didn't we agree that national polls were pretty much useless right now ? If Trump wins NH as he should, he's back in the game.

Anyway, PPP is not the junkiest of pollsters out there. If we believed the users of this board, we should trash all polls, because every single pollster gets a "JUNK POLLSTER!" treatment these days. We should treat polls as a whole, not each poll in its corner. Common knowledge.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Cruzcrew on February 04, 2016, 06:26:12 AM
Great results and of course Rand gets his highest result in months after dropping out.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Fusionmunster on February 04, 2016, 08:51:30 AM
PPP=junk. I'll wait for other polls to confirm this.

You may be too young to remember, but PPP was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2012. They got Iowa wrong but so did most pollsters. They are not junk.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: MT Treasurer on February 04, 2016, 10:29:09 AM
Democratic numbers: Clinton 53, Sanders 32

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/02/republican-race-tightens-nationally-clinton-still-solid.html

Other numbers:

Rubio 34, Trump 33, Cruz 25
Rubio 32, Trump 31, Cruz 23, Bush 8
Democratic primary vote by gender: Women 60-25 Clinton, Men 44-42 Clinton
Democratic primary vote by race: Hispanics 48-36 Clinton, Whites 46-38 Clinton, Blacks 82-8 Clinton


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 04, 2016, 10:37:44 AM
So Democrats remain unchanged for the most part and Trump is bleeding support


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: Gass3268 on February 04, 2016, 10:41:29 AM
Sanders numbers with Hispanics aren't bad. He has a higher favorables than Clinton. It's possible Nevada could be much closer than one would imagine, especially with it being a caucus and having almost 2 weeks to campaign there. Also there is still 50% of African American voters who have no opinion on Sanders, so its possible his number could grow (or shrink) there.


Title: Re: BREAKING: Trump Lead Dropping Nationally (PPP)
Post by: President Johnson on February 04, 2016, 01:56:12 PM
Onviously junk poll.