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Title: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: F_S_USATN on February 16, 2016, 04:06:23 PM Trump 38
Cruz 22 Rubio 14 Jeb 10 Carson 6 Kasich 4 Gilmore 1* Clinton 56 Sanders 38 *Not included in interviews after Feb 12 https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/2713820/topSC1.pdf Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: President Johnson on February 16, 2016, 04:08:14 PM Great on both sides. That will increase The Donald's average on RCP (I have no idea why these guys exclude so much polls. Especially those with lower numbers for TRUMP).
Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: IceSpear on February 16, 2016, 04:13:13 PM CNN had Bernie winning Iowa by 8 points, which means Hillary is actually up 26+ points!
See, this is what you Sanders people looked like when you unskewed the PPP poll. ;) Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Mehmentum on February 16, 2016, 04:13:31 PM Clinton losing whites by 14 (54-40), winning non-whites by 34 (63-29). This puts it somewhere between PPP and Yougov in terms of how polarized the vote is, despite all of them giving roughly the same overall margin.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: IceSpear on February 16, 2016, 04:15:19 PM Wait, Gilmore got 1% but was only included in half the interview period? That means he was at 2% in the first half!
#Gilmentum Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on February 16, 2016, 04:16:49 PM CNN had Bernie winning Iowa by 8 points, which means Hillary is actually up 26+ points! See, this is what you Sanders people looked like when you unskewed the PPP poll. ;) In one poll was CNN wildly for Sanders. Every PPPropaganda release has been mega-Clinton friendly. Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Mehmentum on February 16, 2016, 04:20:33 PM CNN had Bernie winning Iowa by 8 points, which means Hillary is actually up 26+ points! See, this is what you Sanders people looked like when you unskewed the PPP poll. ;) In one poll was CNN wildly for Sanders. Every PPPropaganda release has been mega-Clinton friendly. Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: standwrand on February 16, 2016, 04:23:48 PM I think Rubio is probably higher, maybe even 2nd.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: The Other Castro on February 16, 2016, 04:24:16 PM CNN had Bernie winning Iowa by 8 points, which means Hillary is actually up 26+ points! See, this is what you Sanders people looked like when you unskewed the PPP poll. ;) In one poll was CNN wildly for Sanders. Every PPPropaganda release has been mega-Clinton friendly. Just like how CNN can have a pro-Sanders poll, PPP can have the occasional pro-accuracy poll. Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Eraserhead on February 16, 2016, 04:25:49 PM It looks like the old Jew may just break 40% in South Carolina. Not bad.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: F_S_USATN on February 16, 2016, 04:25:54 PM Wait, Gilmore got 1% but was only included in half the interview period? That means he was at 2% in the first half! #Gilmentum And considering Trump went from 40 to 31% post debate..he had a decent chance of picking up more support Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Zache on February 16, 2016, 04:27:02 PM ()
What Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Admiral Kizaru on February 16, 2016, 04:28:35 PM Carson gained 7 points after his debate performance????
Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on February 16, 2016, 04:29:58 PM Maybe Trump's comments about Dubya hurt him in SC more than we think, but Carson isn't getting 11% on election day.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: IceSpear on February 16, 2016, 04:30:34 PM Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Mehmentum on February 16, 2016, 04:31:00 PM It would be ironic if the long awaited Trump collapse causes a Carson surge that prevents Rubio's 3rd place 'victory'.
But the margin of error is massive on those subsamples, I wouldn't put too much stock into it. Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: ElectionsGuy on February 16, 2016, 04:31:15 PM Margin of Error Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: A Perez on February 16, 2016, 04:33:12 PM 280 likely Democratic voters = embarrassment of a poll.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: RBH on February 16, 2016, 04:33:59 PM CNN had Bernie winning Iowa by 8 points, which means Hillary is actually up 26+ points! See, this is what you Sanders people looked like when you unskewed the PPP poll. ;) In one poll was CNN wildly for Sanders. Every PPPropaganda release has been mega-Clinton friendly. CNN/ORC had Bernie up by 8 (51/43) and he lost by 0.5ish% CNN/UNH's final NH poll had Sanders up by 31 points (61/30) and he won by 22% So, using that scale, CNN/ORC says Hillary +18 (56/38), and it'll end up around 62/37. Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on February 16, 2016, 04:46:46 PM CNN had Bernie winning Iowa by 8 points, which means Hillary is actually up 26+ points! See, this is what you Sanders people looked like when you unskewed the PPP poll. ;) PPP's recent SC poll is their 1st poll that wasn't obviously a Hillary hack result. Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Ebsy on February 16, 2016, 04:50:42 PM CNN/ORC has been particularly terrible on the Democratic side this time around. We'll see if it holds up in SC.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Gass3268 on February 16, 2016, 04:51:20 PM From a structural standpoint, this poll sucks. Only 280 Democratic respondents? That explains why there is almost no information provided in the cross-tabs.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Shadows on February 16, 2016, 04:57:45 PM Hillary hacks are amazing at twisting facts -
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=228702.0 Final CNN NH Poll - Sanders - 61% (60.4%) Clinton - 35% (38%) They predicted 26%, he won by 22.4%, They predicted Sanders exact vote share almost. Also exit polls show last moment people broke more towards Clinton. And the poll before that has Sanders (57%) & Clinton (34%) - Exact 23% Difference Wow https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=227853.0 CNN (Iowa) was on Jan 15th, 2 weeks before the caucus, if you want to hold a poll 2 weeks before & say they got it wrong, then you're welcome! Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Mr. Morden on February 16, 2016, 05:15:26 PM Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Landslide Lyndon on February 16, 2016, 05:32:26 PM Maybe Trump's comments about Dubya hurt him in SC more than we think, but Carson isn't getting 11% on election day. Even so he is still wayyyyyyy ahead for anyone to benefit from his slide. Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Mehmentum on February 16, 2016, 05:34:22 PM But imagine if Carson gets 3rd place as a surprise... and they declare Rubio the winner for his come-from-behind 4th place victory!!!
Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: EliteLX on February 16, 2016, 07:19:54 PM Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: RBH on February 16, 2016, 07:23:48 PM Carson's support has to mostly come from voters that support him because nobody is running negative ads against Ben Carson.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Adam Griffin on February 16, 2016, 08:42:00 PM If this poll is anywhere near accurate, then Clinton is in trouble for the long haul. I've been talking for the past week about how Sanders getting within 30 points of Clinton in SC is dangerous for her; multiple polls are now showing that it's happening. I'll just share a collection of some recent posts from AAD (http://atlasafterdark.freeforums.net/post/130073/thread) in recent days here (actual Atlas quote links don't go the threads since they weren't posted here but timestamps are accurate):
I actually spoke with someone in Sanders' SC apparatus today to get some credible intel on the situation there: The Sanders campaign's internals show that he's getting about 28% of the black vote in SC at the moment. ... The SC electorate will be approximately 55% black and 40% white. If Sanders gets 50% of the white vote and 30% of the black vote, then that gets him slightly about the "magic 35% mark". Getting 35% of the total vote in SC will be a shot across the bow and a sign that his campaign can logistically win the PV. Getting 40% of the total vote - while I don't believe is possible - basically indicates that HRC is ing done. That combination would work as well, as would several different tweaked variations. NH & IA are solidly white, yes, and that's exactly why I think that if the campaign continues, Sanders can up his share of the white vote. As with all things relating to race and polarization, generally the greater the share of the non-white population, the more propensity there is for polarization. I think HRC running about in the coming weeks with Trayvon Martin's family in tow, trying to curry favor with black voters by talking about police brutality, guns and other racial dogwhistles, will have the effect of increasing the percentage of white Democrats who consider Sanders (while not boosting her own numbers with blacks, as their support for her right now has absolutely nothing to do with policy). Even the Democratic primary is not immune to this sort of dynamic. I voted yes: I'm surprised to see unanimous no votes otherwise. If Clinton's margin of victory in SC is more than a point or two smaller than Bernie's in NH, then she isn't winning this nomination. I posted a lot about this over in the "what % of black voters will Sanders get in SC" thread, but long story short: if Bernie is >35% (all voters) in SC, then the race will drag on for a long time; if Bernie is at or above 40%, then Hillary is ing done. For Bernie to get to 35% means he has won a majority of whites and 30% of blacks; to get to 40% means he has won a landslide of whites and at least one-third of blacks, which is enough to shut Hillary down outside of the Deep South and the occasional random state (NY, AR, etc). Uh, Sanders getting 35% of the vote in SC isn't him getting the sh**t bombed out of him: it means he is doing about as well as he can possibly do in the state (winning a majority of non-black voters and getting 30% of the black vote) given the utter rigidity of the black vote. I've been rambling on about this for days, but if he gets 35%, this campaign is going to continue for months and the media is going to keep selling the "underperforming Clinton" narrative; if he gets 40%, he's likely going to win the nomination*. *Assuming the superdelegates don't rudely and selfishly anoint Clinton Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Fusionmunster on February 16, 2016, 09:04:37 PM If this poll is anywhere near accurate, then Clinton is in trouble for the long haul. I've been talking for the past week about how Sanders getting within 30 points of Clinton in SC is dangerous for her; multiple polls are now showing that it's happening. I'll just share a collection of some recent posts from AAD (http://atlasafterdark.freeforums.net/post/130073/thread) in recent days here (actual Atlas quote links don't go the threads since they weren't posted here but timestamps are accurate): I actually spoke with someone in Sanders' SC apparatus today to get some credible intel on the situation there: The Sanders campaign's internals show that he's getting about 28% of the black vote in SC at the moment. ... The SC electorate will be approximately 55% black and 40% white. If Sanders gets 50% of the white vote and 30% of the black vote, then that gets him slightly about the "magic 35% mark". Getting 35% of the total vote in SC will be a shot across the bow and a sign that his campaign can logistically win the PV. Getting 40% of the total vote - while I don't believe is possible - basically indicates that HRC is ing done. That combination would work as well, as would several different tweaked variations. NH & IA are solidly white, yes, and that's exactly why I think that if the campaign continues, Sanders can up his share of the white vote. As with all things relating to race and polarization, generally the greater the share of the non-white population, the more propensity there is for polarization. I think HRC running about in the coming weeks with Trayvon Martin's family in tow, trying to curry favor with black voters by talking about police brutality, guns and other racial dogwhistles, will have the effect of increasing the percentage of white Democrats who consider Sanders (while not boosting her own numbers with blacks, as their support for her right now has absolutely nothing to do with policy). Even the Democratic primary is not immune to this sort of dynamic. I voted yes: I'm surprised to see unanimous no votes otherwise. If Clinton's margin of victory in SC is more than a point or two smaller than Bernie's in NH, then she isn't winning this nomination. I posted a lot about this over in the "what % of black voters will Sanders get in SC" thread, but long story short: if Bernie is >35% (all voters) in SC, then the race will drag on for a long time; if Bernie is at or above 40%, then Hillary is ing done. For Bernie to get to 35% means he has won a majority of whites and 30% of blacks; to get to 40% means he has won a landslide of whites and at least one-third of blacks, which is enough to shut Hillary down outside of the Deep South and the occasional random state (NY, AR, etc). Uh, Sanders getting 35% of the vote in SC isn't him getting the sh**t bombed out of him: it means he is doing about as well as he can possibly do in the state (winning a majority of non-black voters and getting 30% of the black vote) given the utter rigidity of the black vote. I've been rambling on about this for days, but if he gets 35%, this campaign is going to continue for months and the media is going to keep selling the "underperforming Clinton" narrative; if he gets 40%, he's likely going to win the nomination*. *Assuming the superdelegates don't rudely and selfishly anoint Clinton So Bernie Sanders is literally Hillary Clinton in 2008. Attempting to win with a huge majority of whites and very few minorities. Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Adam Griffin on February 16, 2016, 09:59:18 PM So Bernie Sanders is literally Hillary Clinton in 2008. Attempting to win with a huge majority of whites and very few minorities. Yes and no. If you broadly paint it as "Clinton is the 'black people's candidate' and Sanders is the 'hero of the white working class'", then yes: Sanders will do well in many areas where Clinton did well in 2008, and Clinton will do well in many areas where Obama did well in 2008. However, if you calculate what it would take for Sanders to win 50% of the primary vote and then examine the composition of the 2012 Obama coalition, then it would mean that Clinton is carrying 60% of the 2012 Obama minority voting bloc; Sanders would have 40% of the bloc. I don't think having 40% of the non-white Obama coalition on your team quantifies as "very few minorities". For Sanders to win, he will need to almost certainly win a majority of Latinos in addition to whites (and Asians). Title: Re: CNN/ORC SC Poll-Hillary +18, Trump +16 Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on February 16, 2016, 10:13:03 PM So Bernie Sanders is literally Hillary Clinton in 2008. Attempting to win with a huge majority of whites and very few minorities. Yes and no. If you broadly paint it as "Clinton is the 'black people's candidate' and Sanders is the 'hero of the white working class'", then yes: Sanders will do well in many areas where Clinton did well in 2008, and Clinton will do well in many areas where Obama did well in 2008. However, if you calculate what it would take for Sanders to win 50% of the primary vote and then examine the composition of the 2012 Obama coalition, then it would mean that Clinton is carrying 60% of the 2012 Obama minority voting bloc; Sanders would have 40% of the bloc. I don't think having 40% of the non-white Obama coalition on your team quantifies as "very few minorities". For Sanders to win, he will need to almost certainly win a majority of Latinos in addition to whites (and Asians). Can we stop comparing Hillary 2008 or Sanders 2016 to anything approaching Romney 2012? |