Talk Elections

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_df82cdf7f0414137bbc532fd0b0caaa7.pdf
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_c9a841744c0a43ef8321695055efcef5.xlsx?dn=ECPS_TX_POTUS_2.23.xlsx

Clinton 56
Sanders 40

Cruz 29
Trump 28
Rubio 25
Kasich 9
Carson 4

I don't mind this. It seems the Donald is staying at 28%. While Rubio is replacing Cruz here if he can just get a little more momentum. Pushing Cruz out will help him a lot.

Seems like Cruz is going to lose. His fans are going to realize he's a loser and defect to Trump.

So the split will be roughly 50/50/50 delegates? or is it 2 delegates for a CD win and 1 for a 2nd?

fav/unfav % among their own party:

Clinton 79/20% for +59%
Sanders 68/27% for +41%

Carson 71/23% for +48%
Rubio 64/27% for +37%
Kasich 58/29% for +29%
Cruz 56/41% for +15%
Trump 45/50% for -5%

This right here makes me think that the Cruz voters that are defecting are mostly going to Rubio.

The at-large delegates are split proportionally among everyone who gets more than 20% of the statewide vote.

The congressional districts are assigned 3 delegates per district.  If a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in that district, then he gets all 3 delegates.  Otherwise, the first place candidate in a district gets 2 delegates, while second place gets 1 delegate.

All 36 congressional districts have 3 delegates, regardless of how many Republicans live there.  Which means that the Republican voters living in heavily Democratic districts have more power.

Cruz is finished once Trump takes his home state from him.

Thanks Mr. Morden


Looks like Cruz is going to need that Abbott endorsement(which I'm guessing he is getting here in a few hours)

There has been early voting going on in TX for over a month now. Cruz probably already has a nice lead built in. I will be interested to see where the strength for the three main candidates are.

Also this is not a bad poll for Sanders. Unfortunate he's not trying to pump some money into this state, probably costs to much. Shouldn't be that bad a of a delegate slaughter here if this number is correct.

Cruz has so many stakes in his heart, that they really isn't much room to impale him with many more.

I guess March 1st might be game over for Cruz.

This is great for Sanders

Emersen predicted around 10 point victory for Sanders in NH 1 day before & 8 point victory for Clinton 1 day before Iowa.

So you got a poll which under-estimates Sanders substantially. Sanders is probably down around or over 10% which IMO will be a very credible result & he will get a large amount of delegates

One important thing to remember is that in the contests thus far, Trump's lead has been larger among those who decided more than one month before the election, and often even among those who decided more than one week before the election. Even Cruz in his home state might not be enough to eat into that.

Oh dear. I'm predicting Sanders to get 45-ish... it was a 49% white electorate in 2008 and a lot of colleges, mind you, Nevada was (apparently) 59% white, so who knows?