Talk Elections

IBD/TIPP national poll, conducted Feb. 19-24:

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-and-sanders-in-a-dead-heat-as-super-tuesday-looms/

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Dems:

Northeast: Sanders +8
Midwest: Sanders +7
South: Clinton +19
West: Sanders +10
urban: Clinton +3
suburban: Clinton +7
rural: Sanders +7

GOP:

Northeast

Trump 38%
Kasich 16%
Rubio 15%
Cruz 13%

Midwest

Trump 23%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 18%
Carson 9%

South

Trump 32%
Rubio 21%
Cruz 19%
Carson 10%

West

Trump 32%
Cruz 24%
Rubio 17%
Carson 8%

Urban

Trump 30%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 18%

Suburban

Trump 29%
Rubio 24%
Cruz 18%

Rural

Trump 34%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 10%
Carson 10%

In the GOP contest, who is your second choice?

Rubio 20%
Cruz 19%
Trump 11%
Kasich 10%
Carson 9%

What happened to Clintonmentum? Looks like this confirms other recent tracking polls would love more national polls.

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Very interesting that all of Clinton's lead comes from her massive support in the South.

Hopefully the losses on Super Tuesday and in South Carolina don't crush his support in the long run. The heavy focus on southern states will only bury him in the beginning and hopefully that's not enough to take him out of his lead in other areas.

Clinton is only leading in the south. Maybe she is over pandering to the AA vote and not enough to the youth and whites.

Clinton said herself in 2008 she can win the big, Democratic states that matter.  The South is Pubbie-land.  Bernie should just go all in on the Midwest, West, and Northeast.  

You guys do realize that we have plenty of statewide polls from outside the south, right?  Recent New Jersey, Ohio, Illinios, Michigan, and Pennsylvania polls all have Clinton up by double digits.

Yea Ohio polls are mixed the Midwest is where Sanders needs tp play he could easily make Illinois competitive as well. Also new jersey is months and months away nice try.

You are completely missing the point. 

The poll indicates that Sanders is winning the midwest right now.  How on earth is the possibility of Sanders closing the gap in the future relevant?  Its not.  How on earth is when a primary contest is held relevant to the accuracy of the poll's results, when the poll's methodology is completely blind to when the state's contest is held? Its not. 

And the fact that you can literally only point to a single midwestern poll where Sanders is not down by double digits proves my point.

Of course, a majority of the Super Tuesday states are southern. Ugh.

So it seems as though another Clinton supporter hates a poll showing her barley ahead nationally. If Sanders picks up more then a few states on Super Tuesday that would give him plenty of enough momentum. Also Ohio is mixed i would not call it a double digit win for anyone. Minnesota could easily give Sanders a big win. There are plenty of states that have not been polled regularly but it seems as though you love to cherry pick the ones that everyone else calls junk.

Irony.

Obviously no response cause you have none. You are another one of the hacks that needs a Hillary logo. Still to early to call this race.

Again, irony.

I have one hack.

Thats not what I was referring to.  Your 'response' to my rebuttal was to simply repeat that Ohio polls are mixed and that Sanders has momentum, adding nothing to the conversation. Thus, the irony.

Laughably inconsistent with the state polls.

Not really jiving with the whole 'Clinton winning Iowa, Sanders up 1 in Wisc, losing Michigan, Illinois polls' scenario. Still, I would imagine that Sanders is gaining a bit from undecided each week. Probably not enough to win at this point

Even the South crosstab seems to drastically underestimate Clinton.

Junk poll on the GOP side.

How can Sanders be leading by 10 in the West when he just lost a state in the West by 6? Yeah, this whole thing is obviously junk.

This is an election in the USA, not just the CSA

I wasn't aware PA, MI, IL, NJ, etc. were confederate states. Not to mention Bernie tied or trailing in his own turf like WI/RI.

On that note, it's kind of difficult to put yourself in a moral high ground about Confederates and whatnot when West f'ing Virginia is supporting your candidate in a landslide.

I find this poll to be too generous to Sanders, but that logic doesn't hold. One could just as easily ask how Sanders is down 19 in the South, yet within single digits in Oklahoma.

True, Nevada should be one of the worst western states for Sanders... and he only lost it by 5%!

This is a map of all polls conducted in February. If there was more than one, I averaged them. Utah was ambiguous but I gave it to Sanders. 30% shade = 1-10 point lead. 50% shade = 11-20 point lead. 90% shade = 20+ point lead.

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Yeah, not exactly consistent with a toss up race nationally. How's he pulling that off? Winning California by 90 points? Give me an effing break.

Told you guys this was utter TRASH.

SC is like 1% of primary voters.

So you think this is accurate?

It has her up 19 points in the South. Now obviously not every Southern state is going to be a 50 point drubbing, but it quite obviously shows that she's winning there by a much bigger margin than that, at the very least.

MOE is higher on subsamples. And most of the south isn't the deep south.