Talk Elections

CBS/YouGov polls of FL, IL, and OH, conducted March 9-11:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/election-2016-trump-and-kasich-neck-and-neck-ohio-trump-leads-florida/

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Damn ... both the YouGov and the Marist polls for OH are shockingly similar to their pre-Michigan polls.

#Upset 2.0 ?

Some really strong Cruz numbers there in IL and OH. Watch out for an upset.

Sandersmentum!!!

Cruz I don't think takes second in Florida.

Winning IL would be a bigger deal for Sanders than OH much more diverse and one of Hillary's home states.

Rubio in third in Florida? Not sure I buy that no matter how much he's appeared to have crashed recently.

And both this and NBC/WSJ have Illinois more favourable to Sanders than Ohio. Interesting.

The idea of IL being closer than OH? I'm just not paying attention to ANY polling right now. Just strap-in and enjoy the ride.

Compared to NBC, a better Ohio poll for TRUMP but a worse Illinois one.

I'd guess Sanders wins Ohio and Illinois at this point, not that it'll matter much.

If this was a 2 man race, Cruz would run the board in these states

Second choice candidates for the Republicans (note the same two names fill the top two slots in all three states):

Florida:
Cruz 29%
Kasich 21%
Rubio 19%
Trump 13%

Illinois:
Kasich 24%
Cruz 21%
Rubio 19%
Trump 16%

Ohio:
Cruz 24%
Kasich 21%
Trump 19%
Rubio 17%

Sanders has been in the news a lot in Chicago, maybe the Trump protest helps him with black voters also going hard against Rahm. I think winning IL would be a bigger deal than winning OH or FL.

How relevant are second choices withoout IRV? I'm sure Al Gore was the 2nd choice of a lot of Nader voters in FL in 2000.

Ohio is bad for Sanders, Illinois is okay.

Here is the deal -

Il - 18-29 Vote - 15%
OH - 16%
FL - 9%

These numbers are too low, IOWA,NH,MI were all 18-20/21% odd.

Florida obviously has a very aging population but 9% ?

I guess this is why Bernie out-performs polls.

Ohio - Hillary is beating Bernie is the white vote by a good margin, which is why Hillary is winning!

It's relevant in terms of voters potentially changing their minds at the last minute.  Late deciders are more likely to go to candidates who they'd been thinking of as their second choices.

It's also of course relevant in the context of looking ahead to post-March 15, if any of the candidates drop out (Rubio of course being the most likely).  If these three states are at all representative of states later in the calendar, then this is yet another data point suggesting that despite Trump being in the lead nationally, he won't have such an easy time picking off supporters from the candidates who drop out, should it narrow down to a 3-man or 2-man race.

In terms of delegate math though, Sanders probably needs IL, MO, AND OH, assuming FL/NC are blowouts.

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You won't get South Level blow-outs anymore, He is hitting 35% in NC/FL & is campaigning there as well - But I guess 35% is a bad result here, 40-42% is a more respectable

In short, Clinton is about to win four of the five states that Tuesday. And Berniebots are happy  about it, LOL.

I think he could've hit 40 in VA/TX/TN if he had just put resources there, one of the reasons we saw such huge blowouts is because he basically just abandoned those states.

It's probably safer just to ignore all Democratic polls right now.

2 polls showing Illinois closer than Ohio... that really doesn't seem right.  Then again, there have been bigger surprises in this race.

Not sure I buy Sanders winning Illinois. Also, damn at Rubio in FL.

With the final push which is coming for the online groups, it is even beyond Michigan & much organized & much stronger.

I think we can beat the numbers of some of these states - But 9% in Ohio looks too steep.

It will be HRC's biggest coup & likewise Illinois is a big loss (Obama's home state & one of Hillary's many home states)

Acc. to Cross-tabs - 58% in Illinois, 26% in Blacks, 16% in Hispanics.

Michigan had 14.2% Black as does Illinois overall. Michigan had 19-20% final Black vote.

In this poll Black Vote is 26% & much higher than (say) Michigan.

So the likelihood of under-estimating the Black Voting is very limited IMO.

Ah my bad, was looking at the wrong section.

What the hell is going on here!? One day Clinton is up by 42 in IL, next day Sanders is up by 2!? Rubio's either down by single digits in FL, or 20+ and behind Cruz. IL/NC are Safe Trump in one poll, then another shows Cruz barely behind... Pollsters have been absolutely awful in this cycle. I wouldn't be surprised if 2016 polls end up having the overall largest polling error in recent history.

I love how Sanders will actually end up winning a majority of the March 15 states.

But it is inconvenient how Hillary won Iowa, as all of the states surrounding it could very well go for Sanders. What an unfortunate map.

Com'on Florida, DUMP THE TRUMP!!!! YOU CAN DO IT!!!

Surprised with IL! GO CRUZ GO!!!!!!

You know guys, the point of polling is to give you information rather than to allow you to confirm your preconceived biases when the polls agree with them and throw the polls out when they don't.

Atlas's mindset rn is basically just "this poll is right because it lines up with what I already thought" or "this poll is wrong because it's different than what I already thought."

Polls should report the number of people polled, so that people can do the math and calculate a weighted average. If one poll of 800 shows Sanders and Clinton tied 48-48, and a poll of 1200 shows Clinton up 58-38, you calculate a weighted average and get 54-42.

Interesting interpretation, considering that out of all recent polling of the March 15th states, there's only one poll that shows him ahead (this IL poll).

Not saying its impossible by any means, but it seems like its far from a statistical certainty.

No Missouri?

I agree, he could end up with 0 wins & could end up with 3 wins at best while Clinton has 2 guaranteed

Hmm, I'm skeptical that Sanders is doing better in Illinois than Ohio, but bad news for Clinton if this is accurate

Bernie is likely going to win here in Illinois, but I get the feeling that this poll is oversampling downstate, considering the over-performance on behalf of Sanders and Cruz.

Spring break is gonna hurt Bernie bad, I got a feeling if it was not spring-break Ohio would be lean Sanders @ this point. I meant OSU & most of the big Uni's are on break. This does not help!

Out in the western burbs of Chicago, Bernie signs are everywhere and there's nothing for Hillary. There's not really much of any Pub Pres candidates either and this is usually 60-40 Pub territory. It seems like every Dem house I know has a Bernie sign.

I dunno, I wouldn't be too bothered by a 2 point loss in IL if Clinton got a 9 point win in OH and a 28 point win in FL. 

It depends on how NC and MO work out, but there would be a good chance that Clinton gains over 100 delegates from the 15th with those results.

Clinton needs to win at least 1 of IL, MO or OH for appearances sake. Otherwise she starts to look like a regional candidate, especially with the rest of March in Bernie's favor.

She doesn't actually need to. If she loses those 3 narrowly but wins NC/FL in blowouts, she'll net enough delegates to be unstoppable, "regional candidate" or not.

You don't become "unstoppable" on the same day your opponent sweeps the Midwest.

The regional candidate who leads actual primary voting 60/38 and has approximately 1.8 million more votes. This is what I've concluded: Sanders supporters will play mental gymnastics to find any way to minimize Hillary's wins and maximize Bernie's. A one point win in Michigan - the race is turned on its head. A 30 point blow out for Hillary in Florida - well, she only appeals to minorities and old folks. But, at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is delegates and she will earn more than Bernie on Tuesday, likely by more than 100. Then he can win the caucus states coming up but she locks and loads again for NY on the 19th and then PA and MD on the 26th.

Bernie supporters have always had more passion & enthusiasm, so I wouldn't go with this. Hillary is still a big favorite in Illinois - It's Illinois come on - It will be a big shocker if Bernie wins IMO.

The things you say about signs is common in almost all states, even states Bernie lost small!

1)How is she a regional candidate when she has won in Massachusetts, Iowa and Nevada?

2)That's the same kind of BS the Clinton campaign was saying about Obama in 2008 about how he can't win the big states (New York, California, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania). This is just campaign talk to rationalize the fact that you're still running despite the fact that there is no plausible path to the nomination.

You're talking about optics. Obviously they would be good for Bernie and bad for Hillary if that happened. I'm talking about math.

If Bernie wins IL/MO/OH by the same margin he won Michigan while Hillary wins FL/NC by 20 points, she nets ~50-60 delegates. Add to her current 220 delegate lead, and that's all she wrote. He needs to perform respectably in at least one of FL/NC.

He could win every other region of the country and still lose the nomination because that's how proportional allocation works. Narrow wins throughout the Midwest don't do him much good when he's already trailing by so much. Just ask Hillary Clinton...in 2008.

Can someone explain to me how yougov has trump barely beating cruz in illinois, yet tied with kasich in ohio, while other polls have kasich up in ohio, and trump up by around 10 in illinois?

Will be interesting to see if Bernie takes any of the collar counties. In Michigan we saw Hillary win Wayne and Oakland, yet he still won the state. Eager to see how Lake and DuPage vote.

I do see a lot of shades of Hillary 08 in Sanders 16. I'm just glad I'm on the winning side this time. :P

I'm just waiting for the Sanders campaign to start saying "why can't she close the deal?".

I imagine that Will County will be his best of the 5 collar counties. While Bernie didn't win Macomb, Oakland, or Wayne, he was able to keep the margins down in Wayne while essentially tying in the suburban counties. This allowed him to match the vote there with the rest of the state. The strategy needs to be the same here. Keep the margin reasonable in Cook, get a net tie in the collar counties, and then dominate the rest of the state.

It does add to  the narrative - Iowa 0.2% Win, Mass 1.4%, Nevada 5% & losses everywhere else. She barely got a 7-8 delegate lead from these 3 states combined

Mass was a lock for Sanders if it was held on any other day than Super Tuesday - 11 states & honestly even the Sanders group focused on pulling upsets in Colorado & Oklahoma. No1 really imagined we could lose Mass. It's funny that everywhere around Iowa, Sanders won. Wonder what would Iowa be like, if it voted today.

All of Hillary's big victories & delegate lead has come from South, most of which are solid red states.

Outside of the South -

Minn - 25% Loss
Vermont - 75% Loss
NH - 22% Loss
Maine - 30% Loss
Kansas - 35% Loss
Nebraska - 10% Loss
Colorado - 22% Loss
Michigan - 1/2% Loss
Iowa - 0.2% Win
Mass - 1.4% Win
Nevada - 5.5% Win

And this thing will get worse with many more losses, when she heads to New York, she will heading with 13-15 losses outside South, as a regional candidate. The delegate math by solidly in favor of her though

I think Clinton will all 4 states & Sanders MO. I doubt if Sanders can pull Illinois & Ohio, both wins - We are being way too optimistic here IMO

The thing about the suburban counties around Detroit is that they have a lower median income than the collar counties around Chicago. DuPage and Lake are full of wealthier establishment Democrats who are more likely to vote for Clinton.

I know that anecdotal evidence should always be taken with a grain of salt, but if anyone knows the collar counties, it's muon:

I assume that Sanders will dominate the rural counties along the Wisconsin and Iowa border.
But how about the southern part of the state? The whites there are more like their counterparts in the South than those in Upper Midwest.

That's a good question.

It would be so satisfying to see Marco Amnesty Rubio to get 3rd in his home state.  What a loser!

There's also been several polls with Kasich down in Ohio, so this is par for the course for a more or less tossup race.  The only surprise is that Cruz is doing so well in Illinois.  It could be that Cruz is having a last minute surge, it could also be a bad poll.

Signs do not vote and the "so and so has more signs out" theory has been debunked years ago. It's the same thing as with crowd size and people assuming big crowds means a big win.

Now I'm strongly debating whether or not to tactically vote for Rubio or Cruz Tuesday, JFC

How about you vote like a real person and not a Mitt-programmed robot?

You must know by now I will do what ever it takes to prevent Trump from ever being President. My goal is to stop Trump at all cost

I would say vote for Cruz.  I don't think either has any shot in Florida, but Rubio needs to drop out as soon as possible so that Cruz and Kasich can consolidate as much of the vote as possible.  A third place finish in Florida would guarantee that.

If you want to stop Trump at all costs, think about who has the best chance of winning in every other state and who will drop out if he doesn't win on Tuesday.

A slight disagreement with that Chicago Tribune poll that had Hillary up 42 points in IL.

Yeah, Sanders does seem to be quickly narrowing the gap in IL, but I still think Clinton will win it comfortably.

according to the Atlas poll database, six people were polled for this and it has a MoE of 600% :P

Haha.
But how many people were actually polled?