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General Discussion => History => Topic started by: Blind Jaunting on March 16, 2016, 01:54:11 pm



Title: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: Blind Jaunting on March 16, 2016, 01:54:11 pm
Florida, Class 3

Cursed Since 1968

Edward J. Gurney (1967-1974) - defeated for reelection
Richard Stone (1975-1980) - defeated for renomination
Paula Hawkins (1981-1987) - defeated for reelection

After three terms of Bob Graham, it resumed

Mel Martinez (2005-2009) - resigned
George LeMieux (2009-2011) - an appointed placeholder
Marco Rubio (2011-) - forgo reelection in order to purse a failed presidential bid


Illinois, Class 3

Alan J. Dixon (1981-1993) - defeated for renomination
Carol Moseley Braun (1993-1999) - defeated for reelection
Peter Fitzgerald (1999-2005) - did not seek reelection
Barack Obama (2005-2008) - getting elected President is not very cursable, but he still served less than 4 years
Roland Burris (2009-2010) - appointed under extremely controversial circumstances, forgo a hopeless election bid
Mark Kirk (2010-) - suffered a stroke during his term, likely to lose reelection


North Carolina, Class 3

Robert Burren Morgan (1975-1981) - defeated for reelection
John Porter East (1981-1986) - announced he won't seek reelection after being diagnosed with a low thyroid, then committed suicide
Jim Broyhill (1986) - appointed and defeated
Terry Sanford (1986-1993) - lost reelection in an upset
Lauch Faircloth (1993-1999) - defeated for reelection
John Edwards (1999-2005) - forgo reelection in order to purse a failed presidential bid
Richard Burr (2005-) - appears to broke the cycle, winning reelection in 2004 and being favored to do so again this year


Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: Let Dogs Survive on March 16, 2016, 03:59:42 pm
North Carolina's has simply switched over to Class 2 in 2002 with

Elizabeth Dole (2003-2009) -defeated in a landslide for re-election
Kay Hagan (2009--2015) -defeated for re-election when everything favored her

And Tillis ain't popular.


California Class 2 was one from 1959-1993

William Knowland (1945-1959) -resigns for an ill-fated bid for Governor
Clair Engle (1959-1964) -dies in office, barely alive to give cloture to the CRA of 1964
Pierre Salinger (1964-1965) -appointed placeholder, lost election as the only Democratic loss that year to a mere actor
George Murphy (1965-1971) - lost re-election
John Tunney (1971-1977) - lost re-election
S.I. Hiyakawa (1977-1983) - declined renomination
Pete Wilson (1983-1991) - gave it up to be Governor practically after re-election, but...
John Seymour (1991-1992) - appointed placeholder, but lost the special election

Feinstein broke the curse.


Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: Blind Jaunting on March 16, 2016, 04:12:41 pm
Tennessee was somewhat "cursed" for Solid South standards, as only McKeller served more than 3 terms.


Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: kcguy on March 16, 2016, 07:35:30 pm
This is the one that always comes to my mind:

Herman Talmadge (1957-1981) -- defeated for re-election
Mack Mattingly (1981-1987) -- defeated for re-election
Wyche Fowler (1987-1993) -- won a plurality in November 1992, but defeated in run-off
Paul Coverdell (1993-2000) -- re-elected; died suddenly at age 61
Zell Miller (2000-2005) -- appointed, then won special election; did not seek election to full term

Johnny Isakson is about to become the first person in decades to serve two full terms from this seat




Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: Blind Jaunting on March 17, 2016, 06:35:27 am
Kentucky, Class 2

William A. Stanfill (1945-1946) - a placeholder
John Sherman Cooper (1946-1949) - defeated for reelection
Virgin Chapman (1959-1951) - killed in an automobile accident
Thomas R. Underwood (1951-1952) - appointed, then defeated
John Sherman Cooper (1952-1955) - defeated for reelection, again
Alben W. Barkley (1955-1956) - dies in office
Robert Humphreys (1956) - a placeholder
John Sherman Cooper (1956-1973) - finally, he managed to keep this hot seat until retirement
Walter Dee Huddleston (1973-1985) - defeated in an extremely close race (49.9%-to-49.5%) due to Reagan reelection coattails
Mitch McConnell (1985) - managed to broke the curse, but had some close calls


Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on March 18, 2016, 05:49:58 am
New York class 1

Kenneth Keating((1959-1965) - defeated for reelection
Robert Kennedy (1965-1968) - assassinated
Charles Goodell(1968-1971) - appointed and then defeated
James Buckley(1971-1977) - defeated for reelection

It's also the carpetbagger seat. Kennedy was from Massachusetts and couldn't vote for himself. Buckley was from Connecticut. And later it elected Hillary Clinton of Arkansas.


Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on April 05, 2016, 07:22:42 am
Whoever holds the GOP's candy desk seems to have a bad habit of being defeated for reelection after one term (or in some cases, multiple terms).

George Murphy (1965-1971) - defeated for reelection, first Senator to hold the desk
Paul Fannin (1965-1977) - retired
Harrison Schmitt (1977-1983) - defeated for reelection
Roger Jepsen (1979-1985) - defeated for reelection
Steve Symms (1981-1993) - reelected
Slade Gorton (1981-1987, first term) - defeated for reelection
John McCain (1987-present) -reelected four times, current reelection bid TBD
Slade Gorton (1989-2001, second and third terms) -defeated for reelection
Jim Jeffords (1989-2007) - reelected
Bob Bennett (1993-2011) -reelected; won second and third term, but defeated for nomination to a fourth
Rick Santorum (1995-2007) - defeated for reelection
Craig Thomas (1995-2007) - died in office, while holding the desk
George Vionovich (1999-2011) - retired
Mel Martinez (2005-2009) - resigned
George Lemieux (2009-2011) -retired, did not run for full term
Mark Kirk (2011-present) - TBD
Pat Toomey (2011-present) -TBD

NOTE: Dates list the term in office, not the period occupying the desk.

As you can see, the curse has been broken several times, only to return with a vengeance on some unlucky Senator later.  Bennett and Santorum both held the desk during their first terms and won reelection, but were defeated in later reelection bids.  Slade Gorton held the desk in his first term and was promptly defeated for reelection; after he returned to the Senate two years later, he occupied the desk again and won reelection in 1994, but was narrowly defeated in 2000.  Mel Martinez resigned before completing his first term.  And one Senator, Craig Thomas, died in office while holding the desk.  However, Jim Jeffords, Steve Symms, and John McCain all held the desk during their first terms and never lost a reelection bid, although McCain well may lose this year.

In total, four freshmen Senators have lost their bids for a second term after holding the candy desk.  Two more Senators (Gorton and Santorum) have been defeated after two consecutive terms after holding the desk.  In total, ten Senators have either lost reelection, died in office, or resigned in their first term after holding the candy desk.  And now that Kirk and Toomey (both first-term Senators) have got close reelection battles on their hands, they could well become the next victims.  And John McCain, a longtime Senator, has another close fight this year, so the candy desk may even claim him as one of its next victims.  Beware, beware, the candy desk will get you if you don't watch out.


Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: Blind Jaunting on April 05, 2016, 08:10:55 am
Not a Senate, but Illinois' 2nd district seems to be rather unfortunate in recent years

Gus Savage (D), 1981-1993 - defeated for renomination, tenure dodged with frequent close primary races and racist remarks
Mel Reynolds (D), 1993-1995 - resigned after a conviction for statutory rape, then went to federal prison on 16 unrelated counts of bank fraud
Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D), 1995-2012 - resigned and was promptly convicted of charges of fraud, conspiracy, making false statements, mail fraud, wire fraud, and criminal forfeiture (wow, that's a yuge list). Served time in federal prison before being released to a halfway house


And, of course, who could have forget about Illinois Governorship?

William Stratton (R), 1953-1961 - tried and acquitted on charges of tax evasion in 1965
Otto Kerner (D), 1961-1968 - was sentenced to three years in federal prison in Chicago and fined $50,000 after his Governorship
Samuel H. Shapiro (D), 1968-1969 - became Governor after Kerner's resignation, defeated in a bid for a full term
Richard B. Ogilvie (R), 1969-1973 - defeated for reelection
Dan Walker (D), 1973-1977 - defeated for renomination, later served eighteen months of his seven-year sentence
James Thompson (R), 1977-1991 - nothing
Jim Edgar (R), 1991-1999 - nothing
George Ryan (R), 1999-2003 - did not seek reelection, later convicted of federal corruption charges and spent more than five years in federal prison
Rod Blagojevich (D), 2003-2009 - OK, we all remember what happened
Pat Quinn (D), 2009-2015 - became Governor after Blago's impeachment, narrowly elected in 2010 and defeated for reelection in 2014


Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on April 05, 2016, 04:25:04 pm
Mark Kirk (2010-) - suffered a stroke during his term, likely to lose reelection
I wouldn't say he's likely to lose.  I'd say his shots are 50-50.


Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: Blind Jaunting on April 05, 2016, 04:39:10 pm
Mark Kirk (2010-) - suffered a stroke during his term, likely to lose reelection
I wouldn't say he's likely to lose.  I'd say his shots are 50-50.

Fair point, but we can agree he's by no means secure.


Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on December 30, 2016, 06:26:02 am
Idaho class 1

William Borah died in 1940, after that.

John W. Thomas(1940-1945) - appointed, elected twice, then died
Charles C. Gossett (1945-1946) - appointed, lost nomination
Henry Dworshak(1946-1949) - elected then lost re-election
Bert H. Miller(1949) - elected, then died
Henry Dworshak (1949-1962) - elected 3 times, then died

Later it had the infamous Larry Craig.



Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on December 30, 2016, 06:31:12 am
And if we're talking about different offices too, the New York Lt. Governorship was FUBAR for 2008-2010.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Governors_of_New_York#List_of_governors


Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: Figueira on December 30, 2016, 10:40:14 am
Wisconsin, Class 3. No one has ever willingly retired from that seat since 1914. Paul O. Husting died, and was replaced by Irvine Lenroot, who lost renomination to John J. Blaine, who lost renomination to John B. Chapple, who went on to lose the general to F. Ryan Duffy, who lost re-election to Alexander Wiley, who lost re-election to Gaylord A. Nelson, who lost re-election to Robert W. Kasten, Jr., who lost re-election to Russ Feingold, who lost re-election to Ron Johnson. Johnson is supposedly retiring on 2022, but we'll see. That seat will be a target for Democrats regardless.


Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on December 30, 2016, 04:50:26 pm
South Dakota, Class 3.

Since 1920, only one person has retired - Gladys Pyle, who was only elected to fill a short term vacancy and not a full term.

Peter Norbeck (1921-1936) - elected 3 times, died
Herbert E. Hitchcock (1936-1938) - appointed, lost election
Gladys Pyle (1938-1939) - elected to fill vacancy, never actually seated
John Chandler Gurney (1939-1951) - elected twice, lost renomination
Francis H. Case (1951-1962) - elected twice, died
Joseph H. Bottum (1962-1963) - appointed, lost election
George McGovern (1963-1981) - elected 3 times then lost re-election
James Abdnor (1981-1987) - elected once then lost re-election
Tom Daschle (1987-2005) - elected 3 times then lost re-election
John Thune (2005-present) - elected three times so far



Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: Oldiesfreak1854 on December 31, 2016, 07:09:16 pm
The GOP's candy desk seems to be cursed--many of the freshmen Senators who have held it have been defeated after one term:

George Murphy (CA)
Mark Kirk (2010-) - suffered a stroke during his term, likely to lose reelection
I wouldn't say he's likely to lose.  I'd say his shots are 50-50.
UPDATE: The curse is back!


Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: ERM64man on January 16, 2017, 04:53:43 am
This is the one that always comes to my mind:

Herman Talmadge (1957-1981) -- defeated for re-election
Mack Mattingly (1981-1987) -- defeated for re-election
Wyche Fowler (1987-1993) -- won a plurality in November 1992, but defeated in run-off
Paul Coverdell (1993-2000) -- re-elected; died suddenly at age 61
Zell Miller (2000-2005) -- appointed, then won special election; did not seek election to full term

Johnny Isakson is about to become the first person in decades to serve two full terms from this seat
Isakson might resign due to Parkinson's disease.

Missouri, Class 1

John Ashcroft (1995-2001) - retired and appointed US Attorney General
Jean Carnahan (2001-2002) - appointed to replace her husband, Mel Carnahan, who was elected to the seat in 2000 but died in a plane crash before he could take office; defeated when she ran for election
Jim Talent (2002-2007) - won against incumbent Jean Carnahan; defeated in 2006
Claire McCaskill (2007-present) - elected 2 times; might lose in 2018


Title: Re: Cursed Senate seats
Post by: Blind Jaunting on January 16, 2017, 10:40:18 am
And if we're talking about different offices too, the New York Lt. Governorship was FUBAR for 2008-2010.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Governors_of_New_York#List_of_governors

Those people weren't Lieutenant Governors, but Presidents of the Senate who became first in the line of successions. "Acting Lieutenant Governor" was a title of courtesy.