Talk Elections

Dan Jones & Associates poll of Utah, conducted Mar. 8-15:

http://www.ksl.com/?sid=38970451&nid=960


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Cruz and Kasich are ahead though:

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This is an eye opener for Trump. If he's struggles in UT, then the SW is gonna go for Clinton.

Clinton isnt winning UT

Why do Mormons hate Trump so much?

If it's Trump, bye Mia Love.

Best poll in years.

But if UT votes Dem., I'll eat a broomstick.

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I'm genuinely not surprised.

I wouldn't get too optimistic. Looking at the numbers for the other Republicans, this seems a tad bit generous to Clinton/Sanders. If Trump does do especially poorly in UT, though, Democrats might have a chance of taking back UT-4.

Called it!

Um. Wow.

Utah the toss-up state is real!

R.I.P. Mia Love.

I noticed this was entered into the database as a Democrat +2 win, however I thought that polls were entered as the top three republicans against Clinton, which would make this a +19 Republican poll.

A Clinton/Sanders ticket will sink Trump in Utah. That's one hell of a swing.

Well:

I don't recall saying anything about early election polls. I believe they show potential future trends, but nothing definitive. The fact that Trump is trailing both of his potential opponents altogether in UT is a bad sign even if it's this early.

Yeah, Trump will lose like Romney, instead of keeping close and winning at the end.

Holy s**t. If this is accurate and Mormons really do hate Trump that much, he might be in legitimate trouble in Wyoming and Idaho.

And here I thought I was joking when I said I might be the vote that swings my state to Clinton...

LOL.

Trump will win Utah by double digits, but the swing is going to be massive. And as others have stated, could spell the end for Mia Love...

Unless a conservative third party challenge happens, Trump should be able to win.

But, I can't help but wonder how much Mormon backlash will hurt Trump in Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado.

True, but some kind of conservative third party challenge is rather plausible, and Utah has a relatively late ballot deadline, and not particularly onerous ballot requirements.  Even if the third party challenge did no better than Nader 2000 nationally, what kind of numbers would they get in Utah?

Wow. I think Trump will win Utah, but it will be much, much closer than usual.

TRUMP will win Utah by a single digit margin, but he doesn't need blowout margins of +30% anywhere. To win, a candidate must have ONE vote more than the closest opponent in each of the states comprising his winning states that add up to 270 (It's 270 for TRUMP and not 269, cause he cannot rely on the House of Representatives).

There's also the fact that if he's doing this badly with Mormons, that's terrible news for his chances in Nevada and even Arizona.

OK, I'll stop with the bold print. I reserve the right to type TRUMP in case he has a good night (say he wins all 95 delegates in New York). :)

About the first thing, the point here is that if he is in trouble in UT, that doesn't mean he is in trouble everywhere. UT is majority Mormon and Mormons don't like Trump.
In fact, I think that him underperforming with certain groups and making certain states closer, yet still Trump wins (Texas, Arizona, Utah - all single digit wins, possibly low single digit), or making Clinton blowout states even bigger blowouts (California, Oregon, Washington - huge Clinton wins) will have exhausted his GE national polling deficit. So, he will be in a unique position to win the EC and lose the PV badly.

If the Clinton machine legitimately thinks Utah is a viable target this summer/fall, then we will see her put resources into that state. Given that they do lots of polling and have other sources of information on this, them contesting the state would be a pretty damning sign imo.

Honestly, that is a real stretch. The kind of PV margins you are probably talking about would be unprecedented in combination with an EV win. The popular vote can deviate a bit but in general it does stay at least somewhat close to EV outcomes. And before anyone says "this election cycle has been so far out of the norm that anything is possible!", it's worth noting that there are limits and using that blanket excuse is a bad argument.

I sure as hell wouldn't bank on such an outcome.

Why do you think so? The margins of victory in TX and FL are independent of each other.
He could lose TX Hispanics by a blowout and lose some Establishment TX Republican votes, but win FL by GWB's margin.

Virginia, we know that his base are white low education males and working class voters (whites and others). These are disproportionally concentrated in PA, MI and OH. I don't see why he couldn't win there by small margins and yet lose elsewhere by a lot bigger margins and lose the PV, but win the EV.

Thanks. Also, is this something that will change the numbers going backwards in the database? I assume no, but I could be wrong.

The electorate  is looking  like the nation, finally, 60% White, 20% Latino, 13% Black. GOP cant rely on more than 70 % of white vote any more. While nation gets more diverse.

TRUMP win without UT:
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Dems are winning WI.

It'll be interesting to see follow-up polls. If there's an establishment third party nominee this swings Utah and maybe surrounding states into the D column pretty easy. In a two way race this is still Trump's to lose.

I expect Trump would win by the time November comes around, but the fact that he might have to spend money making sure freaking Utah votes for him, it doesn't bode well for his campaign in more traditional swing states.

Trump is polling Mitt Romney levels and polls around the same. He was suppose to confine Dems to a close election, but, the UT poll isnt relevant but Iowa River Valley does and he trails in Iowa, Ohio & Va.

Right, but him over-performing with certain groups in certain areas will also be balanced out by Clinton over-performing with groups that repudiate Trump. This will bring more balance to the PV. Trump, or really most plausible candidates at that, generally cannot over-perform so significantly as to create a large lopsided PV/EV result.

But I'll be clear - If this outcome prediction in UT bears fruit, then there isn't any reason that Trump couldn't theoretically pull a similar win somewhere else. I will give you that, but I'm just saying that to create a large deviation from PV/EV result is highly unlikely.

Wyoming is only about 10% Mormon, so it would probably still go for Trump.

Idaho is 25%; that could be a state to watch.

WTF JUST HAPPENED

For goodness sake, this is an early poll.

And at the end of the day, it's Hillary-hate that will determine Utah, especially since Mormons are mostly reacting to his current primary campaign.

Unless trump really doubles down with his current campaign, he'll probably win the state by high single digits or low double digits instead what the GOP usually gets. After all, the immoral Republican is at least a Republican.

Regardless of whether or not the poll's snapshot will hold up in the fall, I expect it will be plastered on the screen during hypothetical presentations to delegates from the Cruz and Kasich campaigns at a contested convention.  If it doesn't freak them out, then I don't know what will.

Mormons are typically pro-immigration because it's the moral position.

Mormons are typically very moral people and hate the fact that Trump says very offensive things. They hate the fact that Trump says racist, sexist, and xenophobic things.

They see Trump as an immoral person who isn't religious and has done very bad things.

I could easily see a third party candidate getting 20%+ in Utah this election (which will happen).

Imagine Clinton winning Utah and Trump winning Pennsylvania! Utah a SWING STATE.

Wow.  With these numbers, I bet Matheson and McAdams are kicking themselves for not jumping in the Senate race!

His business dealings (heavy involvement in gambling casinos, which Mormons find abominable not only for gambling but also heavy smoking and drinking. Devout Mormons do not gamble, smoke, or drink.

Multiple failed marriages and a child out of wedlock.

Hostility to people (illegal aliens) that Mormons consider potential targets for proselytizing in America. 

If Utah is going badly, watch Kansas as well - though Kansas isn't mormon, the culture there seems to be similar. A lot of nice guy, family values moderate Republicans who would jump ship over Trump.

Utah cares about family values.  That is why they are unsure about Donald Trump - he's not merely vulgar and clearly worships himself, but through his immoral immigration policies, he wants to tear families apart and destroy even more lives.

LOL! Wouldn't it be hilarious if Jim Matheson had to rely on Bernie Sanders' coattails to get elected? That's assuming he runs for Senate.

Bingo. I suppose you could call Mormons moraltarians. In fact, a majority of Utah Mormons support medical marijuana over the LDS Church's opposition (though the legislature caved to the Church) because a bunch of Mormon moms convinced them that supporting medical marijuana for sick moms and kids was a moral position.


Also bingo, though I wouldn't consider the Mormon pro-immigrant stance to be only to convert illegal immigrants. I'd say that Mormons have both a cultural and historical affinity for immigrants of all kinds (many early Mormons were British and Scandinavian immigrants), so obnoxious anti-immigrant and anti-refugee (Mormons were refugees from Missouri and Illinois) rhetoric is off-putting.

But the business and personal dealing and the arrogant personality is very off-putting. Mormons like their candidates to at least appear humble.


The filing deadline has already closed, Matheson isn't running for anything. The only really strong Democratic candidate is Doug Owens in UT-04. The rest are fodder for Governor Herbert and Mike Lee. Maybe we'll get a few seats in the state legislature.

An independent Huntsman/Webb ticket would easily win Utah.

LOL, if the Trumpster loses UT to Hillary, I'll eat a whole broom.

Oh, but I forgot, he'll win MI, PA, WI and NY in return.

All minorities do. And Mormons do have a sense of being a minority.