Talk Elections

The new March 24th Franklin & Marshall College Pennsylvania poll finds a big lead for Clinton in the state, and a virtual dead heat between Trump and Kasich.

Republicans
Trump 33 %
Kasich 30 %
Cruz 20 %

Democrats
Clinton 52 %
Sanders 28%

http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/295186459482343904-f-m-poll-release-march-2016-1.pdf

Franklin and Marshall poll out of PA:

Trump +3
Clinton +25 (53 Clinton / 28 Sanders)

General Election matchups:

Clinton/Trump: Clinton +13
Clinton/Cruz" Clinton +10

http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/295186459482343904-f-m-poll-release-march-2016-1.pdf

Wow, Clinton is pretty safe in PA. So much for this part of the calendar being "primary 2.0/Sandersslide everywhere".

Would be hilarious if Kasich beat Trump in PA.

GOP support by region:

Philadelphia: Trump +14 over Cruz/Kasich
Northeast: Trump +15 over Kasich
Allegheny: Kasich +1 over Trump
Southwest: Trump +16 over Kasich
Northwest: Trump +23 over Kasich
Central: Kasich +1 over Trump
Southeast: Kasich +9 over Trump

fav/unfav % among their own party:

Clinton 67/25% for +42%
Sanders 64/22% for +42%

Cruz 48/32% for +16%
Trump 46/41% for +5%

Whoa...is it too late to sue to get Kasich off the ballot in the state?  Not saying that I want it to happen, but a college student who was a Rubio supporter tried to do it until his candidate dropped out.

Cruz might want to think twice before whining about Kasich being in the race.

They forgot there's more than caucuses. :P

PA is Hillary country. :)

remember, kasich was born here.

also, how is this race so close when the region by region breakdown has trump kicking butt everywhere.

17% undecided, that should help kasich and cruz.

Kasich is ahead in areas where there are going to be more voters, and that's just how F&M weighed the poll. I dunno how accurate Kasich's strength in the southeast is though considering how strong Trump will be in the surrounding area in nearby states.

Some of my thoughts on this poll...

Dems:
Doesn't surprise me much at all. PA is a closed primary, and Hillary actually won registered Democrats 64-35 in Ohio, a pretty similar state. The margin will likely narrow once Sanders actually starts campaigning in the state and running ads, but I expect an easy Hillary win in the double digits. Regional breakdowns will be what you'd expect: Hillary dominating in Philly (the machine is going to pull out all the stops for her) and cleaning up in the suburbs. Sanders will do well in the West and the T, especially Centre County where Penn State is.

Reps:
This one is interesting for a few reasons. For one thing, Kasich was born here. I kind of doubt that matters much, but it's something. More likely is that many have some exposure to Kasich due to him being governor of a neighboring state and can relate to him more. Secondly, Trump has a bit of a problem with this being a closed primary, and it hits him on both sides. A chunk of the "Dixiecrats" in Appalachia that usually support him won't be able to vote for him (consequentially, they could give Sanders a boost, or maybe not. They've been unpredictable so far.) On top of that, there's kind of a "reverse Dixiecrat" problem for Trump. I'll call them Yankeepublicans. Republicans who are moderate, suburban, perhaps pro-choice, and turned off to the national GOP yet still occasionally support state and local Republicans. Needless to say, Trump is repulsive to this crowd. You can see this quite clearly in Kasich winning the SE by 9 points. If Rubio was still in to split this vote, Trump would be in much better shape. I think Trump wins the state still, particularly since the Kasich campaign does not exactly seem like it has the strength or resources to wage a major challenge in the state, but it could be close. As for Cruz, he won't be relevant outside of winning some stray Pennsyltucky counties.

Hillary supporters honestly have intelligence issues - Very similar to Trump supporters. They don't go and check how credible a poll is  - They just come up with weird remarks.

AGE. What was your age on your last birthday?
2% 18-24
6% 25-34
10% 35-44
15% 45-54
27% 55-64
41% 65 and older

Now in Iowa & NH - 18-29 was around 18-19%(21% in Michigan), 18-34 was around 26% odd (Here it is 8%)

In Michigan under 44, was around 50% odd. Here is 18%.

If this is not a Junk poll, I don't know what is! 2% under 24? 8% under 35%?

Could we see cruz pull a rubio here and tell his folks to vote kasich?

Closed primary for the Democrats, which helps Clinton. Also their are much more minorities in Pennsylvania then Ohio (were Clinton won easily)...Yeah Clinton should crush Sanders here by 15-20pts...

For the Republicans, I favor Trump but only slightly. Kasich has a shot here to (similar to Ohio etc).

If I were Kasich I would just campaign in Pennsylvania and a few other small northern states like Rhode Island. And completely forget about Wisconsin, as if Cruz wins their it increases chances of a brokered convention.

is this a closed primary for the gop? If so, that might help kasich because the voters in the coal and appalachian regions are less likely to be registered.

I am not sure Cruz is capable of this kind of strategy.

It's closed on both sides.

Yeah Kasich could win Pennsylvania, but I still favor Trump.

Clinton will obviously blow Sanders out, proabably worse then Ohio. Clinton has vastly more strength among Pennsylvania/Ohio White Democrats versus other states.

I believe Ohio is the only other state besides Arkansas were she won the white vote.

She won the white vote in every Southern state except Oklahoma, as well as Arizona most likely.

Why can't people discuss using real hard truths.

PA has around 1.5% less AA than Ohio!

Compared to Illinois, PA has 4% less Blacks, 10% less Hispanics!

If Sanders would be challenged demographically it will be MD or DE not PA (Though Clinton is a strong favorite for PA)

F&M is a highly respected pollster in PA. They nailed both the presidential and Senate margins in 2012, and came very close to the final margin in the 2014 governor's race, so they must be doing something right.

You do bring up a good point with the age ranges though. Youth turnout was substantially lower than those examples you gave in certain states, plus PA is a pretty "old state" in general, so those could be factors. But even considering that the sample is too old. Either they got a really wonky sample, or the kids aren't paying attention yet. :P

icespear, so on the GOP side, only 17 delegates are at stake and the rest are unbound? Doesn't that sorta put a damper on this battle, considering even "momentum" has been utterly useless so far?

You're forgetting that Ohio was an open primary and Sanders won independents (24% of the electorate) 66-33. That major chunk of the vote is now gone for him.

Yup. It's not make or break obviously, but on the GOP side every single delegate could matter.

Pennsylvania is the second or third oldest state you numbskull.

Is shadows bernie sanders campaign manager?

Impossible. Atlas #analysts told me that PA would be Trump's third-best state!

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Franklin and Marshall College on 2016-03-20 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220160320070)

Summary:

Trump:	33%
Kasich:	30%
Cruz:	20%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/295186459482343904-f-m-poll-release-march-2016-1.pdf)

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Franklin and Marshall College on 2016-03-20 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220160320070)

Summary:

Clinton:	53%
Sanders:	28%
Other:	8%
Undecided:	11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/295186459482343904-f-m-poll-release-march-2016-1.pdf)

The poll was conducted right after Kasich's Ohio win.  It doesn't take into account the Arizona/Utah debacles for him.

I thought Kasich has not qualified for the PA ballot.

Yes, Hillary should do well here as decrepit, old Reagan Democrats hop on their Rascals after BINGO and head to the polls to show their undying support for Her Highness in a primary paid for by independents that aren't allowed to vote. 

Quite sickening.  NJ has the same barbaric rules, and we have a population that is north of 50% non-affiliated.  A shame that Hillary must rely on such injustice to win. 

Democrats choosing a Democrat in a Democratic primary... injustice.

Kasich is probably not eligible, but the friend of Marco withdrew his lawsuit the day after Rubio dropped out. So we'll never know. I believe the time to challenge has otherwise passed.

PA is a joke anyway, in essence, it's worth less than two territories as far as bound delegates go.

The remaining delegates are directly elected (3 per CD). Not only are they not bound to the candidate they allegedly represent, but you also don't know who they are representing on the ballot.

So unless you walk into the polls with a piece of paper of who supports whom, you are playing Russian Roulette. And even then the delegate in question can change their mind. Sounds ripe for GOP-e shenanigans.

There was a challenge because he had barely more signatures than required, but it was either dropped or defeated. Would be hilarious if he won the state after barely collecting enough signatures.

That was not the question or concern - Don't shift the goal-posts - The person made an incorrect statement regarding demographic break-up & corrected it.

Independents or not is not the concern - I am not commenting whether Sanders would win or not - Just saying that Demographic is an excuse for a win or a loss here!

You do realize that this is like worse than Florida - Florida has around 9-10% of the votes from 18-29 , hugely low  - Having an ageing population.

In this poll 18-34 is 8%, what is 18-29 like 4-5% odd?

I don't how can a sane guy even argue about this poll. This is not to say whether Clinton is not the favorite for PA, she is - But arguing & hailing a junk poll is flat out weird!

ALL the taxpayers are footing the bill, Holmes.  The party isn't paying for it.  But I have to smear myself with the designation of "Democrat", America's favorite centrist appeasers of owning class oligarchs and Hillary Clinton fanclub, to vote in a primary that my tax money is used to conduct.

Yes... injustice. 

So what about the extra tax that people would have to pay (especially lower income, disabled and senior people) to subsidize "Medicare for all" for higher income people? What about the extra tax people who wouldn't benefit from his paid family leave would have to pay to benefit those that would?  Are those also injustices?

Don't make this about Sanders, because now you are making the general right-wing, libertarian argument against ALL social programs.  Well, we all get to benefit from them if we so need or want.  I'm being taxed so the Democrat Party can hold an exclusive vote that discriminates based on political affiliation.  It's quite different.  BAD!

Allahu akbar, indeed!

This poll has 83% over 45 voting on the democratic side when it was 69% back in 2008.

If you want to make critical comments, make rational one's not this laughable one's. If anything you should complain about rich people subsidizing poor people's healthcare not the other way around

Sanders' Medicare is likely to cost a little less than 14T for 10 years which will be lesser than the 20-25-30T odd or so currently paid as Single Payer is vastly cheaper due to economies of scale & weeding out the profits. This is why France/UK etc pay 1/2 or 1/3rd or 2/3rd of the US' cost.

The cost comes from 2 parts - Income Tax raised progressively for people earning above 250K & Payroll taxes (around 6% odd if I am not wrong) for everyone. Ordinary people will save 1000's of $  through a more efficient system & more income tax paid by rich people.

And family leave is tax on income (1.61$ or something a week - So people who are not working will not be paying).

Parts of California, Washington already has a 15$ Min wage & I know parts of Washington has family Leaves as well. And this Family leave stuff is ridiculous - Every country in the world has it - Globally people laugh at the stupidity of people that they are essential slaves! I can't believe Democrats argue about Family Leaves!

This is not a Sanders proposal btw - Progressive Democrats are fighting for this on a federal level!

This should favor Cruz and Kasich. Cruz will do a better job of identifying supporters, and getting them a listing of delegate candidates. Kasich supporters will be able to figure out which delegates to support and make their own list.

Trump supporters will be less likely to figure this out, will forget their sheet of paper, or get to the polling place and realize they don't have it, drive home and stop off to eat or have a beer, and never make it back to the polls. Other Trump backers will decide that it is too complicated, or rigged against the little guy and not bother to vote.

This favors anti-_trump because people will just vote for whatever names they recognize, which'll tend to be establishment types sympathetic to #Never_trump. In Illinois, prominent local officials tended to sign up as Rubio's and Bush's delegate-candidates. Such people will be elected as delegates in Pennsylvania.

Like the vast majority of "unpledged" delegates everywhere this election , they wil be overwhelmingly be lined up aganst Trump regardless of the primary vote's outcome.

The biggest impact from the primary results here will be: a) the media narrtive of either Trump continuing a winning streak of major states (probably), or the downful of Trump if Kasixh upsets Trump after Cruz wins Wisconsin; and b) come Cleveland, an embarrassment to the GOP if Trump does well in PA but winds up getting screwed in the delegate count

I'm not sure why the age discrepancy is so vast, and I'm also not sure where people are getting that FL's youth vote was in the single digits. Here's what I have in my exit poll spreadsheet for 18-29 year-olds (CBS exit poll):


The average across these states thus far is right at 17%. Including 30-34 year-olds would likely push that up to around 20%. I have no idea which other age group is being over-represented in the poll here, but I'll assume that it's a group that is anywhere from 55-70% Clinton.

Try sixth-oldest now, and projected to keep falling down the ranking.

Here's what the 2008 exit poll age numbers were:

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