Talk Elections

These states are usually competitive, but Trump polls so terribly in each of them that I can't imagine them actually going for him in the fall.

Va will be close because of the 272 map, but the natl trend will be against Trump and he will lose it.

Just out of curiosity, which 4 states are safer D than NH? lol

Personally, I don't consider any of these states to be swing states in the realm of presidential contests. I made my thoughts clear several years ago about Virginia (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=175346.msg3777460#msg3777460) and have quoted them numerous times since. In that quote, I reference "it might as well be Wisconsin", which gives you an idea of how I feel about WI as well. Of the three, NH is probably the closest to being a "swing state", but it's really not.

A lot of people have difficulty telling the difference between a state that is perpetually close in elections and a state that can truly go either way in an election. All three of these fall into the former category.

Kasich was the only one to break the trend of Iowa, Virginia and Ohio. Now, Va is gone too this election cycle.

No. Wisconsin is a safe D state. The GOP has a much higher chance of winning NH and VA than WI.

If it's Trump vs Hillary, all three of these states are safe D. The only GOP candidate (this including the candidates who've dropped out) that could win any of these states is John Kasich.

I don't think WI is safe D, but Trump in particular seems to be non-competitive there. We've had several polls so far and he's failed to crack 40% in a single one. Also, according to a recent GOP primary poll, 42% of the WI GOP view him unfavorably. No way he beats Clinton there.

Natl trend is against GOP, and NH, Pa, Iowa , CO & NV is gone under this environment. But, Dem trend is with Dems in Va, too.

Wisconsin will be the closest of the three, Northern Virginia will probably make Virginia difficult for Trump to win. NH is another state that will almost certainly go for Clinton as well. If I had to make a Prediction I would say WI Clinton wins 53-46, Virginia 55-44, and NH 54-45. Odds for each State WI 40 Trump wins VI 33% Trump wins,NH 30% Trump wins.  

Not a chance unless something crazy happens.

Trump has some large issues in the WI and VA suburbs. I don't even consider VA to be a swing state if he is the nominee...He is going to get slaughtered in NoVa.

Kelly Ayotte won by way more than Walker or Johnson did, lol.

Oh, I thought you were talking about in a Trump vs Clinton race. In a Trump vs Clinton race, Wisconsin is certainly safe D. I agree that it would be a tilt D state if someone else were to be nominee (ex: Kasich).

Kasich would certainly certainly win NH before WI though. Kasich is actually a very good fit for NH. NH was one of the closest states in 2012 (unlike Wisconsin, Obama won WI by an incredibly large margin despite the fact that Ryan was from there). Trump would get crushed in NH though.

THAT'S BECAUSE SHE'S A WOMEN.  ANGRY NH WOMEN VOTE FOR FELLOW ANGRY WOMEN OF BOTH PARTIES.

Yet noted female Jeanne Shaheen struggled against a joke candidate carpetbagger and probably would've lost to any half decent Republican male candidate who actually lived in the state for more than 3 days.

VA is possible, though I think he'd be an underdog there. NH is unlikely, I don't think a candidate like Trump would do well there in a GE. WI... not a chance. WI is fool's gold, only winnable for Republicans under the most ideal circumstances, and Trump running already means less than ideal circumstances for Republicans.

No, but that doesn't go for Generic R, who can still win any of these states in a competitive race (indeed, I'm inclined to believe that, while moving towards the Democrats, Virginia is probably still more Republican than the nation at large). Voted "No" for all three.

The Republican brand in general seems very unpopular in WI right now.   Don't know if that'll change before the GE though.

How was Paul Hodes a sacrificial lamb? He represented half the state in Congress (The "Vermont half" of the state, which Ayotte even carried!)

Jeb Bradley or Charlie Bass would've beaten Shaheen, or at the very least made it the closest Senate race in the country. Brown's carpetbagging is the only thing that saved her.

And no, NH will likely not vote for Trump. But it would vote for someone like Kasich in a second.

Guys, you're making the mistake - especially with these states - of conflating senatorial and gubernatorial elections with presidential elections. These states have different voting patterns/levels of elasticity when it comes to those two categories.

Iowa, NM, Pa, OH & NH has uniformly voted together 1964, 1992, 2004 & 2012. If this pattern holds, Clinton will hold these states due to OH and Va overlap.

No

I think New Hampshire is more possible than those others.

Literally nothing backs up your opinions on new hampshire. Nothing.

Not specifically related to WI, but I don't think anyone can truly predict exactly how competitive a state will be short of polling/other very basic measures. Look at California 1992 - Just 8 years early it went heavy for it's favorite son, then next election, much reduced but still red, then 1992 - 2012 it has not gone red once and has only gotten bluer over time. I don't think anyone in 1988 would have predicted that. I'm sure people could see some trends, but doubtful anyone really saw what was coming in 92'

This seems to be a relatively common trend at both the state and national level. Some states rapidly flip and never go back. IMO, New Hampshire did that in 2008. It would take a very moderate Republican to even have a chance, and that is frankly out of the question with the current Republican party, short of an open convention. Their current 'moderates' are even more right-wing now than real moderates from the past. That doesn't help when the state is going left and your party is also going further right at the same time.



To be fair, there are obvious pro-Democratic trends at the state level, and while state level success always necessarily predict presidential race success, it can't be ignored, either. The politics of the modern GOP and the politics of NH have been diverging for quite awhile now, which lends credence to the meaning of the shifts we are seeing at the state level.

I'm sure he's mentioned this stuff at one point or another.