Talk Elections

Clinton 47.1, Trump 36.6
Clinton 44.2, Cruz 44.2
Kasich 48.1, Clinton 39.2

Sanders 54.1, Trump 35.0
Sanders 51.6, Cruz 39.4
Sanders 45.9, Kasich 43.7

https://t.co/eifW2aSx7L

Terrible candidate.

Clinton is dead meat against Kasich. She should concede the election in July if Kasich is the nominee.

If Kasich is the nominee, does Wisconsin actually manage to go red?

Clinton can still win, WI will stay blue, as long as Garland isnt confirmed and Johnson's on ballot. Clinton would keep what she is doing now driving up Latinos, blacks and Women. Kasich would ensure OH/ Va would be red and make a play for CO or Iowa.

And Kasich would be dead meat against Jesus, who has more of a chance to be the Democratic nominee that Kasich being the Republican one.

Kasich could very well be nominated at a brokered convention. It's unlikely at this point, but it's also unlikely that Trump wins the nomination.

No chance. TRUMP and Cruz delegates will never vote for him and even the establishment doesn't like him.

Kasich is only popular because he's so weak and ineffective that no one bothers to attack him.

Kasich's path to the nomination would involve Trump and Cruz both dropping nuclear bombs on him to prevent it from happening. His reputation would not survive.

Precisley, the SW track would still be possible, he would be attacked viciously for his part in Leeman bros.

Those of you concluding that Kasich would have the GE in the bag if he somehow wins the nomination (<1% chance, let's be honest), should take your own advice about early polls...

I just wish that my party would nominate John Kasich.

Town hall last night did nothing but impress me more. By absolute far the most stable, equipped and experienced, reasonable and faithful figure out of every candidate running.

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Marquette Law School on 2016-03-28 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5520160328181)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 37%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/03/30/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-cruz-sanders-ahead-in-wisconsin-presidential-primaries-bradley-leads-state-supreme-court-race/)

That doesn't explain why she's tied with Cruz in the state, Ebsy. Anyway, I think that WI will stay blue if Cruz or Trump win the nomination.

Obama was tied with Romney during the spring of 2012 but eventually he won comfortably, even with Paul Ryan on the ticket.

Wisconsin has the perfect electorate to fall for Cruz's bulls[Inks]. They fell for Scott Walker 3 times after all.

Wisconsin is very polarized, as one would expect of the state that gave America Senator Joseph R. McCarthy despite a reputation for liberalism. The Left is well to the Left; the Right is far to the Right. There's little room for the middle-of-the-road in Wisconsin. 

Walker and Pawlenty are friends, eventhough Walker governed far more conservatively than Pawlenty. It took MN two terms of Pawlenty to get from under GOP dominance at the stae level, i think WI will finally live up to expectations and vote for Feingold.

Paul Ryan also has pretty good favorables here.

Paul Ryan is the one Wisconsin Republican who will have a home state bounce at the national level. Walker won't. Johnson won't. Duffy won't. He's simply in another league above the rest of the Wisconsin GOP in favorability.

He didn't get one in 2012.

Nope he didn't. But WI did trend toward the Republicans with him on the ticket, presumably moreso than it would have without him as the VP nominee.

Favorable Numbers

Kasich 36-23 (+13)
Sanders 46-40 (+6)
Cruz 30-49 (-19)
Clinton 35-59 (-24)
Trump 22-70 (-48)

Presumptive Democratic nominee doubly more popular than the Republican frontrunner! You go girl!

#Clintonabove30%favorable!!

Not enough.

Paul Ryan has never won Wisconsin in a statewide election and probably can't. The last three sitting Representatives as nominees for Vice-President (Ryan 2012, Kemp 1996, and Miller in 1964) did not win their states. Kemp was very good. Dick Cheney had run a statewide race and won his state; Wyoming has but one Congressional seat. But Wyoming offers three of the easiest electoral votes in America.

The usual penultimate office for a President of the United States being elected President is either Vice-President (GHW Bush, Lyndon Johnson), Governor (George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan), or US Senate (Barack Obama, Richard Nixon, John Kennedy). The heroic leader of a successful military campaign (Dwight Eisenhower) is a rarity; since the death of Norman Schwarzkopf (who never ran for elective office), nobody has that chance for the foreseeable future.

I do not say that cabinet secretaries, Representatives, or big-city mayors (just think about it: the Mayors of Los Angeles and New York City have responsibility over the welfare of more people than does the Governor of Arkansas) would be poor Presidents; they just can't win. I am tempted to believe that someone running a Presidential race needs to have won a statewide race to have an idea of how to win nationwide.

In 2012 Paul Ryan ended up protecting his own House seat.