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Title: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Senator Cris on March 31, 2016, 09:29:37 AM Sanders 49%
Clinton 43% Cruz 38% Trump 37% Kasich 17% https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/715544664166764544 https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/715545605087608832 Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: swf541 on March 31, 2016, 09:32:01 AM I'm thinking the Marquette poll was an outlier
Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 31, 2016, 09:43:33 AM I'm thinking the Marquette poll was an outlier I'd trust Marquette in WI before anyone else, at all. Believe me, Wisconsin is not a good fit for Trump. Trump bombed in IA, came in third in MN. Wisconsin is much more in line with those states than IL. Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: swf541 on March 31, 2016, 09:55:48 AM I'm thinking the Marquette poll was an outlier I'd trust Marquette in WI before anyone else, at all. Believe me, Wisconsin is not a good fit for Trump. Trump bombed in IA, came in third in MN. Wisconsin is much more in line with those states than IL. I generally agree, but the PPP senate numbers look more in line with what I'd expect than Marquette's. I think Cruz will win, just not by 10 Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on March 31, 2016, 10:56:28 AM Hillary's sabre-rattlers over at PPP have her down 6?
Looks like my 56-43 Sanders prediction is going to be right on the money. The Northwest of Cheeseville is LOVING the Bern. Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on March 31, 2016, 10:58:53 AM I don't believe Trump is tied first gold here, the state seems like a bad fit for him.
Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Eraserhead on March 31, 2016, 11:15:17 AM Ugh, maybe I shouldn't have been so quick to sell my Trump shares here!
Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Xing on March 31, 2016, 11:18:20 AM Has Cruz ever lost a state that he's been ahead in? I know that there's a first time for everything, but I still think Cruz is favored here. He might not lock Trump out of any delegates, though.
Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Volrath50 on March 31, 2016, 11:24:24 AM Has Cruz ever lost a state that he's been ahead in? I know that there's a first time for everything, but I still think Cruz is favored here. He might not lock Trump out of any delegates, though. Wasn't he ahead in MO? I recall everyone expecting Cruz to win there and being surprised at Trump's narrow win. Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Holmes on March 31, 2016, 11:24:58 AM Ugh, maybe I shouldn't have been so quick to sell my Trump shares here! How much did you have riding on this? Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: The Other Castro on March 31, 2016, 11:26:55 AM Ugh, maybe I shouldn't have been so quick to sell my Trump shares here! You're probably fine, I'm not sure of a time where Cruz has led a state in a poll but ended up losing. Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: bigedlb on March 31, 2016, 11:31:22 AM Sanders 49% Clinton 43% Cruz 38% Trump 37% Kasich 17% https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/715544664166764544 https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/715545605087608832 Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: yankeesfan on March 31, 2016, 11:36:02 AM Interesting: Cruz does better with crossover Democrats than Trump by a margin of 51-30
Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Xing on March 31, 2016, 11:41:03 AM Has Cruz ever lost a state that he's been ahead in? I know that there's a first time for everything, but I still think Cruz is favored here. He might not lock Trump out of any delegates, though. Wasn't he ahead in MO? I recall everyone expecting Cruz to win there and being surprised at Trump's narrow win. I think the few MO polls that came out showed a slight Trump lead, but many (myself included) expected the demographics to favor Cruz. Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 31, 2016, 11:43:47 AM Clinton is ahead with Democrats 50-42.
If she wins by such a comfortable margin in lily white Wisconsin then I doubt that she wins them in her home state by only 12. Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Gass3268 on March 31, 2016, 01:18:37 PM This poll has Sanders winning African Americans 51-40.
Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Wiz in Wis on March 31, 2016, 01:51:39 PM This poll has Sanders winning African Americans 51-40. Small subgroup. Don't worry about it Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Mehmentum on March 31, 2016, 02:00:03 PM Clinton is ahead with Democrats 50-42. If she wins by such a comfortable margin in lily white Wisconsin then I doubt that she wins them in her home state by only 12. Still, its pretty clear that closed primaries favor Clinton regardless, but its probably not as much as exit polling showing Clinton dominating with Democrats would suggest. Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Gass3268 on March 31, 2016, 02:04:26 PM Clinton is ahead with Democrats 50-42. If she wins by such a comfortable margin in lily white Wisconsin then I doubt that she wins them in her home state by only 12. Still, its pretty clear that closed primaries favor Clinton regardless, but its probably not as much as exit polling showing Clinton dominating with Democrats would suggest. Exactly, if you are an independent in a closed primary state you are going to have to pick the party that you at least somewhat align with if you want to participate. Totally different from states that don't have any party registration like Wisconsin. Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Likely Voter on March 31, 2016, 02:47:28 PM The GOP side seems to be truly a race, with Cruz perhaps favored. The Dem side is now all about the size of Sanders margin.
Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Landslide Lyndon on March 31, 2016, 02:48:30 PM Clinton is ahead with Democrats 50-42. If she wins by such a comfortable margin in lily white Wisconsin then I doubt that she wins them in her home state by only 12. Still, its pretty clear that closed primaries favor Clinton regardless, but its probably not as much as exit polling showing Clinton dominating with Democrats would suggest. I answered that elsewhere: the 2008 exit poll shows that just 12% of New York Democratic primary voters declared that they were "independents". Much fewer than the 30-35% who usually take part in open primaries. Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: DemPGH on March 31, 2016, 06:06:43 PM Man, would it be sweet if Trump could pull of WI. Unlikely, as it is in the heart of his weakest region in the country, but it might just shut up these haters for maybe a day, and yeah, it would clinch it with NY and the bulk of the northeast/mid-atlantic up next.
Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Matty on March 31, 2016, 06:09:10 PM Man, would it be sweet if Trump could pull of WI. Unlikely, as it is in the heart of his weakest region in the country, but it might just shut up these haters for maybe a day, and yeah, it would clinch it with NY and the bulk of the northeast/mid-atlantic up next. not even selzer/dmr was off by as much as is required for MU to be if trump were to win. Has trump won ANY races where the polls showed him tied or slightly losing? OTOH, has Cruz LOST any states where he was up or tied? Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: IceSpear on April 01, 2016, 01:15:00 PM I'm thinking the Marquette poll was an outlier No, this is an outlier. Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: IceSpear on April 01, 2016, 01:17:34 PM Hillary's sabre-rattlers over at PPP have her down 6? Looks like my 56-43 Sanders prediction is going to be right on the money. The Northwest of Cheeseville is LOVING the Bern. Bashing PPP as Hillary hacks didn't work out so well in Missouri. :P Even the Hillary sabre-rattlers over at Putrid Pathetic Polling can't hold back the Show-Me state from FEELIN THE BERN! Title: Re: WI-PPP: Sanders leads Clinton by 6, Cruz and Trump virtually tied. Post by: Mr. Morden on April 02, 2016, 05:15:56 AM Full poll:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/03/sanders-leads-in-wisconsin-gop-race-close-va-privatization-issue-hurts-johnson.html 2-way race: Cruz 49% Trump 41% Kasich 46% Trump 44% fav/unfav % among their own party: Sanders 74/13% for +61% Clinton 60/24% for +36% Kasich 52/30% for +22% Cruz 50/36% for +14% Trump 45/48% for -3% Cruz favorability margin among… Kasich supporters: -18% Trump supporters: -42% Kasich favorability margin among… Cruz supporters: +20% Trump supporters: -3% Trump favorability margin among… Cruz supporters: -64% Kasich supporters: -68% |