Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls => Topic started by: Fusionmunster on April 04, 2016, 04:06:16 PM



Title: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Fusionmunster on April 04, 2016, 04:06:16 PM
http://abc7.com/politics/trump-still-leads-in-ca-despite-negative-views-poll-shows/1275688/

Republicans:

Trump - 40%
Cruz - 32%
Kasich - 17%

Democrats:

Clinton - 53%
Sanders - 39%


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: swf541 on April 04, 2016, 04:42:26 PM
But didnt Silver say Cruz would win here/ sarc

Anyways, glad to get a California poll


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 04, 2016, 04:48:31 PM
But didnt Silver say Cruz would win here/ sarc


Maybe if Kasich's support melts away Cruz can win. Hard to see these voters going for TRUMP.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Xing on April 04, 2016, 04:50:30 PM
It's early, but Cruz/Sanders will need a lot of luck to win here.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Vosem on April 04, 2016, 04:51:04 PM
trump at 40% and the existence of a single clear anti-trump alternative is a small, single-digit trump victory that splits most CDs at best, and realistically probably ends in a narrow, single-digit loss.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: swf541 on April 04, 2016, 04:54:06 PM
But didnt Silver say Cruz would win here/ sarc


Maybe if Kasich's support melts away Cruz can win. Hard to see these voters going for TRUMP.

I think people may be surprised, the Kasich voters I know lean more towards Trump than Cruz.

also didnt Trump just claim today or yesterday that Kasich was hurting him?


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Mehmentum on April 04, 2016, 04:54:58 PM
Honestly not sure if an 8 point win would be good enough for Trump.  It really depends on how the CDs pan out.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Maxwell on April 04, 2016, 04:55:12 PM
Trump's lead isn't great.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: DrScholl on April 04, 2016, 04:58:58 PM
California has no shortage of anti-immigrant conservatives. This is good territory for Trump.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: The Other Castro on April 04, 2016, 05:14:07 PM
My end projection for Trump of 1119 has him winning 100 delegates from California, though I'm not sure what that would be PV wise.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: DemPGH on April 04, 2016, 05:17:27 PM
Good numbers for Trump. He's coming off arguably his worst week. If it were anyone else the GOP side of this would be way over. The story here is how Cruz cannot catch on, cannot capitalize, cannot motivate, etc. He's just. . . there.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 04, 2016, 06:42:50 PM
But didnt Silver say Cruz would win here/ sarc


Maybe if Kasich's support melts away Cruz can win. Hard to see these voters going for TRUMP.

I think people may be surprised, the Kasich voters I know lean more towards Trump than Cruz.

also didnt Trump just claim today or yesterday that Kasich was hurting him?

There's no need to rely on anecdote for this though, when we have several polls that test a hypothetical 2-man race.  Most polls I've seen show that Kasich voters have a more favorable opinion of Cruz than Trump.  And when you poll the 2-man race, most of the polls show that more Kasich voters go to Cruz than Trump.


Title: CA PrimD: Survey USA: Clinton Leading in California
Post by: ElectionAtlas on April 04, 2016, 09:22:26 PM
New Poll: California President by Survey USA on 2016-04-03 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=620160403019)

Summary:
Clinton:
53%
Sanders:
39%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4114a2c6-213f-4447-8c7b-eb137d8c3312)



Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: cowboys5xsbs on April 04, 2016, 10:57:41 PM
I thought California would be a Sanders state.  He has a rough road ahead of him.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Holmes on April 04, 2016, 11:02:18 PM
I thought California would be a Sanders state.  He has a rough road ahead of him.

There's a lot of black and brown voters in California. So no.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Desroko on April 04, 2016, 11:21:54 PM
I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on April 04, 2016, 11:36:19 PM
I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)

Fun fact: California actually used to be one-half Marin until the county was decimated after no one was vaccinated.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: cowboys5xsbs on April 05, 2016, 01:02:52 AM
I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)

I figured it would have the same demographic of washington and oregon?


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Ebsy on April 05, 2016, 01:15:41 AM
I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)

I figured it would have the same demographic of washington and oregon?
Washington and especially Oregon are a lot whiter. California is the most diverse state in the nation, and the Democratic Party there is ridiculously diverse. Large blocs of white liberals (both Hollywood and progressive type), black voters, Latinos, Asians


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Derpist on April 05, 2016, 01:22:55 AM
I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)

I figured it would have the same demographic of washington and oregon?
Washington and especially Oregon are a lot whiter. California is the most diverse state in the nation, and the Democratic Party there is ridiculously diverse. Large blocs of white liberals (both Hollywood and progressive type), black voters, Latinos, Asians

On the other hand, Sanders has been winning Asian voters in a landslide and doing much better with black voters outside of the South. And his performance among Latino voters...well, it doesn't seem like anyone is that sure.

California's demographics are unique because it's not actually THAT black (only 6%). However, it is heavily heavily Latino (40%) and Asian (15%). In contrast, Nevada is only 27% Latino.

San Francisco isn't Seattle though. It's a corporatist yuppie hellhole filled with the banksters who would vote Hillary. If Sanders wins the Bay Area, it will probably be off a huge margin among Asian voters. I expect him to sweep the Bay Area but probably lose (overwhelmingly white and rich) Marin County.

I still view California as a genuine tossup.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Desroko on April 05, 2016, 01:26:22 AM
I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)

I figured it would have the same demographic of washington and oregon?
Washington and especially Oregon are a lot whiter. California is the most diverse state in the nation, and the Democratic Party there is ridiculously diverse. Large blocs of white liberals (both Hollywood and progressive type), black voters, Latinos, Asians

On the other hand, Sanders has been winning Asian voters in a landslide

Citation not given.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 05, 2016, 01:52:09 AM
I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)

I figured it would have the same demographic of washington and oregon?
Washington and especially Oregon are a lot whiter. California is the most diverse state in the nation, and the Democratic Party there is ridiculously diverse. Large blocs of white liberals (both Hollywood and progressive type), black voters, Latinos, Asians

On the other hand, Sanders has been winning Asian voters in a landslide

Citation not given.

He will probably mention the Hawaii caucuses which are about as indicative of Sanders' strength among Asians as his Oklahoma win is about his popularity among Dixiecrats.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Desroko on April 05, 2016, 02:38:49 AM
I thought California would be a Sanders state.  

Why?

(If you're one of those internet pundits who's convinced that my state is one half Berkeley and one half Marin, feel free not to reply.)

I figured it would have the same demographic of washington and oregon?
Washington and especially Oregon are a lot whiter. California is the most diverse state in the nation, and the Democratic Party there is ridiculously diverse. Large blocs of white liberals (both Hollywood and progressive type), black voters, Latinos, Asians

On the other hand, Sanders has been winning Asian voters in a landslide

Citation not given.

He will probably mention the Hawaii caucuses which are about as indicative of Sanders' strength among Asians as his Oklahoma win is about his popularity among Dixiecrats.

Leaving aside the implications of "Asian-Americans are alike, amirite?" we don't even have entrance polls for Hawaiian caucusgoers - you know, all 30K of them.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 05, 2016, 06:10:53 AM
On the other hand, Sanders has been winning Asian voters in a landslide

Citation not given.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Democratic_caucuses,_2016
https://berniesanders.com/new-poll-shows-sanders-strong-lead-among-asian-americans/


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 05, 2016, 06:43:19 AM
Crosstabs:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4114a2c6-213f-4447-8c7b-eb137d8c3312

Dems:
age 18-34: Sanders +16%
age 35-49: Sanders +6%
age 50-64: Clinton +42%
age 65+: Clinton +36%
whites: Clinton +6%
blacks: Clinton +44%
Hispanics: Clinton +11%
Asians: Clinton +36%
Central Valley: Clinton +29%
Greater L.A.: Sanders +1%
Inland Empire: Clinton +38%
Bay Area: Clinton +9%

GOP:
age 18-34: Cruz +2% over Kasich
age 35-49: Trump +9% over Cruz
age 50-64: Trump +30% over Cruz
age 65+: Trump +3% over Cruz
whites: Trump +11% over Cruz
blacks: no data because #s are too small
Hispanics: Cruz +15% over Trump
Asians: Trump +29% over Cruz
Central Valley: Trump +13% over Cruz
Greater L.A.: Trump +15% over Cruz
Inland Empire: Cruz +13% over Trump
Bay Area: Kasich +7% over Trump


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Desroko on April 05, 2016, 07:49:42 AM
On the other hand, Sanders has been winning Asian voters in a landslide

Citation not given.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Democratic_caucuses,_2016
https://berniesanders.com/new-poll-shows-sanders-strong-lead-among-asian-americans/

Read one post above you.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 05, 2016, 07:59:49 AM
For some reason, my previous post is invisible to me unless I click on my profile, so I'll try again:

Crosstabs:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4114a2c6-213f-4447-8c7b-eb137d8c3312

Dems:
age 18-34: Sanders +16%
age 35-49: Sanders +6%
age 50-64: Clinton +42%
age 65+: Clinton +36%
whites: Clinton +6%
blacks: Clinton +44%
Hispanics: Clinton +11%
Asians: Clinton +36%
Central Valley: Clinton +29%
Greater L.A.: Sanders +1%
Inland Empire: Clinton +38%
Bay Area: Clinton +9%

GOP:
age 18-34: Cruz +2% over Kasich
age 35-49: Trump +9% over Cruz
age 50-64: Trump +30% over Cruz
age 65+: Trump +3% over Cruz
whites: Trump +11% over Cruz
blacks: no data because #s are too small
Hispanics: Cruz +15% over Trump
Asians: Trump +29% over Cruz
Central Valley: Trump +13% over Cruz
Greater L.A.: Trump +15% over Cruz
Inland Empire: Cruz +13% over Trump
Bay Area: Kasich +7% over Trump



Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 05, 2016, 08:17:48 AM
Sanders has been getting trounced in Asian precincts in primaries. Who cares what happens in caucus sham elections?


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: Sir Mohamed on April 05, 2016, 08:43:24 AM
LOL, I expect Kasich to outperform Cruz here. The Dem numbers seem about right.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on April 05, 2016, 09:51:05 AM
Yea the Dem cross tabs seem a bit fishy. Doubt it's that close with younger voter. This will not be the result in June.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on April 05, 2016, 05:04:34 PM
Sanders has been getting trounced in Asian precincts in primaries. Who cares what happens in caucus sham elections?

LOL, where? Most Asians either voted in caucuses or haven't voted yet.


Title: Re: CA SurveyUSA: Clinton +14, Trump +8
Post by: IceSpear on April 05, 2016, 06:32:32 PM
Dominating!

Let's remember to keep in mind that Bernie has to win here by at least 20 points to have a shot at the nomination...